U-Deepak Tripathi, owayengumnxibelelanisi we-BBC Afghanistan, uthathe umdla osondeleyo e-United States, ubudlelwane bamandla amakhulu kunye ne-South and West Asia iminyaka engaphezu kwe-30. Incwadi yakhe yamva nje Ukoyisa iLifa likaBush e-Iraq nase-Afghanistan isanda kupapashwa yiPotomac Books, Inc., Washington, DC.
Kwisithuba esingaphezu konyaka emva kokuba u-Barack Obama engene ezihlangwini zikaGeorge W Bush njengomongameli, izixhobo zasemkhosini zase-United States kunye nemikhosi itshintshela kwindawo yemidlalo yase-Afghan kwelinye ilinge lokulawula uvukelo. Ngaphandle 'koluqhankqalazo' olucelwe nguGeneral Stanley McChrystal kunye noMongameli u-Obama wamvuma emva kweeveki zokucinga, amajoni kumacala omabini kumda we-Afghanistan-Pakistan ayaqhubeka nokuchasa amandla aseMelika. Ukusebenza komkhosi okwinqanaba eliphezulu ngokuchasene neTaliban eHelmand, kwaye kutsha nje eKandahar, kubonisa zombini izakhono kunye nemida yamandla amakhulu. Ayintshanga le. Imikhosi yeSoviet occupation yadlula kumava afanayo ngexesha lokuhlala kwabo e-Afghanistan ngeminyaka yoo-1980. NjengamaSoviet, abantu baseMelika baye bafumanisa ukuba kunokwenzeka ukuba babambe ulawulo lweendawo ezithile, kodwa nje kuphela ukuba imikhosi yabo ihleli kwezo ndawo. Njengoko beqhubeka nolunye utyando, abavukeli bayabuya.
Kukho izinto ezifanayo phakathi kohlaselo lwakutshanje lwaseMelika olwamkelwe nguMongameli Obama kunye nokwanda kwemikhosi yeSoviet e-Afghanistan emva kokuba uMikhail Gorbachev waba yinkokeli yeUSSR ngo-1985. . Kodwa wayalela ukuba kuqiniswe ngokufana nobukhulu botyando lwaseMelika ngoku. Ngokucacileyo, yayikukunika imikhosi exhobileyo yaseSoviet ithuba lokugqibela lokuphumelela imfazwe yase-Afghan, kodwa ngokwenyani kuba ngaphambi kokurhoxa okucwangcisiweyo, iSoviet Union yayidinga ukuqinisa. Imikhosi erhoxiswayo kufuneka ihluthe izixhobo. Izixhobo ezinzima eziza kuthuthwa azikwazi ukusebenza ngexesha elinye. Amajoni aphumayo aphatha izixhobo ezilula zokuzikhusela, hayi izixhobo ezinzima eziyingozi zokuhlasela. Kwangaxeshanye, ukwanda kweeyunithi eziphathwayo zenzelwe ukulumkisa utshaba ngengxaki enkulu ezayo.
Umongameli u-Obama sele ebhengeze ukuba imikhosi yaseMelika iya kuqala ukuyishiya i-Afghanistan phakathi konyaka ka-2011. U-Obama uhlakaniphile ngokwaneleyo ukuba azi imbali kunye nezifundo zayo. Uphoxile uninzi lwabaxhasi bakhe benkululeko abebelindele lukhulu kuye. Kodwa akukho mathandabuzo amaninzi ukuba angathanda ukurhoxa e-Afghanistan. Ulonyulo kwakhona ngo-2012 luya kuxhomekeka kulo kwinqanaba elikhulu, kunye noqoqosho. Ukonakala kwamaphulo omkhosi kumazwe aphesheya kunye nokuwohloka kwezoqoqosho ekhaya okushiywe lulawulo lwangaphambili kufuneka kuqaqambe engqondweni ka-Obama. Oko u-Obama aya kukufeza akuqinisekanga. Kodwa kukho izinto esinokuzifunda kwixesha elidlulileyo.
Ubongameli bukaGeorge W Bush busekelwe kwi-manifesto esiyaziyo njengeProjekthi yeNkulungwane eNtsha yaseMelika. Le projekthi yazalwa ngokusabela kumongameli kaClinton kwiminyaka elishumi emva kweMfazwe ebandayo kwiminyaka yoo-1990. Imanyano ye-neoconservatives kunye neLungelo lobuKristu labonelela uGeorge W Bush ngenkxaso engundoqo. Ngaphezu kwako konke, ubongameli bukaBush buya kukhunjulwa ngamaphulo omkhosi wamazwe angaphandle aseMelika ngokwemilo yeemfazwe ezintathu: imfazwe yase-Afghan, imfazwe yase-Iraq, kunye nemfazwe yesithathu, engenamda nengenaxesha-'imfazwe yehlabathi lonke yobugrogrisi'.
Iziganeko ze-9/11 zenze umngeni wokhuseleko ongazange ubonwe ngaphambili. Eyona mibuzo ibalulekileyo eWashington ngelo xesha bekufanele ukuba: Uqale phi kwaye uyeke phi? Kufuneka ube yintoni umlinganiselo kunye nomlinganiselo wempendulo yaseMelika? Nangona kunjalo, ezo ngqwalasela zazingekho njengoko intetho 'yemfazwe ende' okanye 'imfazwe yehlabathi' ibonisiwe, ngokuqinisekileyo kwikota yokuqala kaMongameli Bush.
Ingxelo yamagunya amakhulu esilwa iimfazwe ezinde okanye zesizukulwana ngokuchasene nabavukeli ayilunganga. IUnited States yafunda oku eVietnam. ISoviet Union yakwenza oko eAfghanistan. Imfazwe ende ifanele imikhosi yabavukeli eyendele ngokunzulu kwindawo nakwinkcubeko yethiyetha. Bafumana inkxaso enkulu kwibala ledabi. Ukukhanyela oku kudla ngokubulala. Umongameli waseUnited States unemiba emininzi ajongene nayo. Kodwa ubunzima obunzima beziganeko kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo bukhokelela kwisigqibo sokuba ubongameli bukaBush babumalunga nemfazwe. Amaphulo angaphandle awawaqalisayo kwiinyanga nje ezimbalwa emva kokumiselwa kwakhe agubungela yonke enye into ebudeni bobumongameli bakhe. Ngoko ke kufanelekile ukuvavanya ilifa likamongameli waseBush malunga 'nemfazwe yobunqolobi'.
Injongo yohlaselo lwase-Afghanistan ngo-Oktobha ka-2001 yayilutshintsho lolawulo. Kubekho ingxoxo ende malunga nenjongo yokwenyani yohlaselo lukaMatshi ka-2003 e-Iraq: izixhobo zokutshabalalisa okanye utshintsho lolawulo. Kubonakala ngathi ixesha neziganeko ziyizinzisile loo ngxoxo. Kwabangwa ukuba uSaddam Hussein unezixhobo zekhemikhali kunye nebhayoloji ezinokuthi zisebenze kwimizuzu engama-45. Izixhobo ezinjalo azizange zifumaneke. Okuninzi malunga neengqwalasela kunye neengxoxo phakathi kweWashington neLondon, nakwikomkhulu ngalinye, kuye kwacaca. Sazi ngakumbi malunga nonxibelelwano lwabucala phakathi kukaMongameli Bush kunye neNkulumbuso yaseBritane uTony Blair ekuqhubeni kuhlaselo lwase-Iraq - unxibelelwano abanye abantu ababalulekileyo ebekufanele ukuba baziswe bebengazi. Kwaye sifundile kuTony Blair ukuba nangona enolwazi lokuba akukho zixhobo zokutshabalalisa, ngekhe wasebenzisa ezinye iingxoxo zokususa uSaddam Hussein.
Kuninzi okuthethiweyo malunga neempazamo ezenziwa e-Afghanistan kwaye, ngakumbi, i-Iraq. Eyona mpazamo inkulu yokugweba yayikukuba amazwe amabini ahluke kakhulu anikwe impatho efanayo yamandla omkhosi. Ngokwenza oko, abangeneleli babonakala besebenza ngempindezelo ngaphezu kwesicwangciso esicwangcisiweyo. Kungenjalo, kutheni i-Afghanistan - ilizwe elasilela ngokupheleleyo - liphantsi kwamandla omoya atshabalalisayo kwaye ishiywe ngaphandle komzamo omkhulu wokwakha kwakhona ixesha elide. Kwaye umngeneleli ophambili wadlulela e-Iraq ukuya kudiliza ubume belizwe obulungelelaniswe kakuhle, emva kokuba uzwilakhe ebhukuqwe. Ngokuphatha i-Afghanistan kunye ne-Iraq ngendlela efanayo, abangeneleli benza ngokuchasene noko kwakufuneka kwilizwe ngalinye.
Ukujonga i-al Qaeda kunye neentshukumo ezahlukeneyo zobuzwe kwilizwe lama-Arabhu 'njengotshaba' olunye 'kwimfazwe yokugrogrisa' yayiyimbali engalunganga. Ukuzimisela phantsi komongameli kaBush ukutyumza ubuzwe kwilizwe lamaSilamsi kwabiza ixabiso eliphezulu ukusuka eNtshona. Kodwa amazwe akulo mmandla ahlawule, kwaye ayaqhubeka ehlawula, ixabiso elikhulu ngakumbi. Ubundlobongela bobugrogrisi be-Al Qaeda buphendulwe kukoyika amandla omkhosi waseMelika. Ii-ajenda ezahlukeneyo zamagunya engingqi ziye zadityaniswa neenjongo zeMelika 'kwimfazwe yobugrogrisi'. Impembelelo yayinkulu kuwo wonke ummandla, ivelisa umsindo, ingqumbo kunye nemvukelo eluntwini ngokubanzi.
Kwilizwe elingenazo izakhiwo zelizwe, okanye apho iziseko zophuhliso zitshatyalaliswayo, kuya kubakho iziphumo ezithile. Undoqo wendima karhulumente kukugcina ucwangco. Ikwenza oko ngokunyanzeliswa, irhafu kunye nokusasazwa. Kwilizwe elinje ngeAfghanistan, wena, usapho, izalamane, isizwe kunye neqela lobuhlanga zifumana ukubaluleka okukhulu. Kwimeko engaphumeleliyo okanye ebuthathaka, ezinye ii-arhente - umdala welali, inkosi yesizwe okanye inkosi yemfazwe - ithatha indawo yombuso. Bayalela abalandeli abadumileyo, kuba benza izinto zenzeke.
E-Iraq, izigqibo ezibini zokuqala zomlawuli waseMelika uPaul Bremer emva kohlaselo luka-2003 lwabangela ungquzulwano olunamanqanaba amaninzi. NgoMyalelo weNombolo yoku-1 yomhla we-16 kuCanzibe, uBremer wayichitha iBa'ath Party. Kwinqaku kwiLe Monde diplomatique, isifundiswa saseBhritane uToby Dodge uchaze abantu baseIraq kwinyanga emva kokufika kwemikhosi yase-US njengoko ilawulwa bubusuku bamaHobbesian. UDodge uqikelele ukuba phakathi kwe-20000 kunye ne-120000 amagosa aphezulu kunye naphakathi kwe-Iraqi alahlekelwa yimisebenzi ekuhlanjululweni kwenkonzo yoluntu kuphela. Ayeya kuba ngawona mandla akwaziyo ukubuyisela ucwangco phakathi kwesiphithiphithi nogonyamelo. UDodge wabhala ukuba i-17 ye-23 ye-ministries yase-Baghdad yachithwa ngokupheleleyo, yahluthwa zonke izinto eziphathekayo ezifana neekhompyutha, ifenitshala kunye nezinto zokufakelwa - zonke kwiiveki ezintathu. Kwakungekho mikhosi yaseMelika yaneleyo yokuyinqanda.
Umyalelo weBremer's Order Number 2 wachitha amaziko karhulumente abaluleke kakhulu kunye nabangaphantsi njengabaphathiswa bakarhulumente, umkhosi wase-Iraq kunye nemibutho ye-paramilitary, iNdlu yoWiso-mthetho, iinkundla kunye nemikhosi kaxakeka. Ukulungiswa ngezinye iindlela zokuthatha imisebenzi yale mibutho kwakubalulekile kwilizwe elinabantu abazizigidi ezingama-30. Imithetho emibini kaBremer ishiye isithuba esazaliswa ngokukhawuleza ngabadlali abatsha abanobundlobongela.
Ndifuna ukunika ingcaciso emfutshane yobume bomnye ungquzulwano-imfazwe yase-Afghan-ukususela kwi-1970s. Ikwasebenza nakwi-Iraq. I-Afghanistan ihambelana ngokumangalisayo kunye nezinye iingxabano ePalestina, Yemen nakwezinye iindawo. Olu ngquzulwano lunokubonwa kumanqanaba amane awohlukeneyo kodwa adibanayo, amaxesha amaninzi ngaxeshanye. Nantsi indlela.
Inqanaba 1: impixano yangaphakathi. E-Afghanistan, ungquzulwano lwangaphakathi luyinyani yembali. Ukwenza lula, masiqale 'kwishumi leminyaka yenkululeko kunye nophuculo lwangoku' ngoo-1960. Ungquzulwano lwaqatsela emva kokubhukuqwa kobukhosi ngo-1973 โ kwakhona emva kobhukuqo-mbuso luka-1978 lwamagosa omkhosi aselula agxile kwiSoviet, awayesoyikela ukuba uMongameli uDaud ulisondeza kakhulu ilizwe laseMelika.
Inqanaba lesi-2: ukwanda kokubandakanyeka okukhulu kwamandla. Ungenelelo lwangaphandle luphembelela uqhushululu, kwaye luphazamisa ulungelelwaniso lwamandla ekuhlaleni. Oku, kwakhona, kutsala amandla amaninzi angaphandle, ade aqalise ukumisela umlinganiselo kunye nekhosi yeziganeko. Kodwa ukungamkeleki kwabo phakathi kwabadlali basekhaya, kunye nokuchasana okusebenzayo ngamaqela asekuhlaleni, kuthintela ukudalwa kunye nokusebenza kwamaziko.
Inqanaba lesi-3: ukuchithwa kwelizwe. E-Afghanistan, ukusweleka kukarhulumente kwakucotha, kuthatha ngaphezulu kweminyaka engamashumi amabini. E-Iraq, kwakhona, ngokuqwalasela imiphumo yezohlwayo kunye nokuhlukaniswa, sithetha ngaphezu kweminyaka elishumi. Emva kokubhukuqwa kukaSaddam Hussein, isibetho sokugqibela seza ngokukhawuleza.
Inqanaba lesi-4: ukungakhathali kwamanye amazwe kunye nokunyuka kwe-extremism. Ndicinga ngeshumi leminyaka yee-1990 kunye nokunyuka kweTaliban e-Afghanistan. Urhulumente waseSoviet woyisiwe waza waqhekeka. Kwi-United States, idiniwe kwaye ixakene nongxamiseko yokulawula ukonakaliswa kweSoviet Union, okona kubaluleke kakhulu kwizixhobo zayo zenyukliya, iAfghanistan yayingeyonto iphambili.
Kukho isifundo ngokubanzi ekufuneka sifundwe. Imfazwe ixesha elide ikhokelela ekudinweni kunye nokungakhathali phakathi kwabangeneleli bangaphandle. Inkcubeko yobundlobongela iyakhula. Ulindelo macala onke luyatshintshwa kwaye ubundlobongela buba yindlela yokuphila. Abadlali abashiywe ngasemva baba nomkhwa wokusebenzisa unyanzeliso. Yaye abemi balindele ukuba izicombululo zifunyanwe ngogonyamelo. Into yokuba amandla ambalwa angenelelayo abambe esi sifundo yintlekele.
Okwangoku sinomxube wesicwangciso se-McChrystal sohlaselo lwasemkhosini kunye ne-counterinsurgency kunye nomnqweno kaMongameli Obama wokuqalisa ukutsala imikhosi yokulwa phakathi ku-2011. Umnqweno wakhe uqhutywa lunyulo lukamongameli lwango-2012 eMelika. Kwaye kuxhomekeke ekugayweni, ekuqeqeshweni nasekuqeqeshweni okuqinisekisiweyo komkhosi wesizwe wase-Afghan owomeleleyo we-300000.
Nangona kunjalo, imbali ibonisa ukuba ingqibelelo kwimikhosi exhobileyo yase-Afghan kunzima ukuyifumana. Iinyani zezizwe phakathi kwamagosa ePashtun kunye namajoni enqanaba kunye nefayile - kunye nokungathembi iiPashtuns phakathi kwabangengawo amaPashtun - ayinakunqweneleka. Kuya kufuna isizukulwana ukuguqula inkcubeko yemikhosi exhobileyo kunye nelizwe nokuba i-United States kunye namahlakani anentando. Xa ingekho loo myolelo, ndinoloyiko oluthile. Bazi -
1. Ngokukhawuleza xa uMongameli Obama eqala ukutsala imikhosi yokulwa phakathi kwe-2011, ukuguqula ukulingana kwamandla, okanye loo mbono isondele, utshintsho olumangalisayo lokunyaniseka luya kwenzeka kwimikhosi exhobileyo yase-Afghan. Le nto yenzekile ngaphambili kwaye inokuphinda yenzeke kwakhona.
2. Urhulumente waseKarzai akanakuphila ukuba umkhosi uyaqhekeka ngokwezizwe kunye nezizwe. Imikhosi exhobileyo yase-Afghan kunye namapolisa abanayo imvisiswano.
3. I-Afghanistan inezixhobo ezininzi. Kwagaleleka imipu kwelo lizwe, ngeyona njongo ilungileyo yokuxhobisa umkhosi, yayiza kuwela ezandleni ezingafanelekanga. Kwaye andithethi nangokwanda komsebenzi owenziwa yi-ISI yasePakistan nabanye abadlali bengingqi.
Zonke ezi zithako zemeko yendalo kwakhona.
Impendulo yiprojekthi yengingqi yexesha elide, ekhokelwa kodwa ingachazwanga yi-United States, ebandakanya i-Iran, iRashiya, iTurkey, iSaudi Arabia, iPakistan, iChina neIndiya; kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo owenziwe ngamabomu wokuchithwa kwemikhosi, nangona kunzima kwaye kubuhlungu. Ngaphakathi, uhlobo lwedemokhrasi yesizwe, ngokuqinisekileyo ngaphandle kweKabul kunye nezinye izixeko eziphambili, yinto enokwenyani ukuba nethemba.
Kodwa imeko yangoku yobudlelwane baseMelika kunye neTshayina, i-Iran neRussia ayilithandi ithemba elinjalo. Uxinzelelo lukhule kunye nePakistan kunye neTurkey. Kwaye ndiyazi ukuba kukho ukungaqiniseki, ukuba ayikokungonwabi, malunga nemigaqo-nkqubo yolawulo luka-Obama kwenye indawo kulo mmandla. Oku kwenza intsebenziswano ibenzima ngakumbi. Isicwangciso sangoku e-Afghanistan sigxininisa kakhulu kumaqhinga omkhosi. Kwaye ayikuxabisi ngokwaneleyo ukuba kuchasene kangakanani, kucaphukisa kangakanani, ubukho bomkhosi wangaphandle kuma-Afghans. Uluvo luhamba ngaphaya kweTaliban.
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