Sei isu kuMedia Lens tichitya zvakanyanya nekudonha kwemamiriro ekunze nepo vamwe vanhu vatinoziva vane hanya zvinyoro, kusava nehanya kana cockily contrarian?
Mhinduro iri nyore ndeyekuti isu tiri kuita izvi nguva yakazara uye 'kuita izvi' kunosanganisira kuverenga mishumo isina kusefa uye pfungwa dzepamusoro masayendisiti emamiriro ekunze pasocial media zuva rese, zuva rega rega.
Pese patinotora zororo kubva pasocial media, maitiro evemakambani-vanobvuta muviri vanotanga zvakare kuzvinyengerera. Isu tinonyaradzwa nevaraidzo, ne infotainment, ne presstitute prestidigitation normalizing zvisingafungidzike. Kunyangwe paine humbowo huzhinji, tinovimbiswa kuti dambudziko riri pasi pehutungamiriri hwevatungamiriri vane hunhu, vane njere. Hongu, muverengi anodiwa, pfungwa yedu yedambudziko iri kudzikirawo.
Pane mhinduro mbiri dzakakosha kunhau dzenjodzi dzemamiriro ekunze dzichangoburwa:
‘Zvakaipa, asi kwete kuti zvakaipa. Zvinogoneka uye tinogona kuenderera mberi semazuva ese.'
Imwe nzira yekutora:
‘Aiwa, ndizvo zvakaipa izvo. Iri ingori bhora rinotanga kukunguruka - richaunganidza zvakanyanya uye nekukurumidza, uye harizoregi. Tinoda shanduko huru zvino!'
Yechipiri yeizvi ndeyechokwadi zvisingaite. Yekutanga ndiyo meseji yepasirese inounzwa nevezvenhau vehurumende vane chido chekufarira mamiriro ezvinhu, mukutiodza mwoyo kutsvaga shanduko yakakomba. Uye ichi ndicho chikonzero nei mwero wearamu yeruzhinji usati waratidza kutyisa, rollercoaster chokwadi chinoratidzwa mukukwira nekuputsika magirafu ekuyera tembiricha uye kufukidzwa kwechando.
Muzvinafundo Bill McGuire, Emeritus Purofesa weGeophysical uye Climate Hazards paUniversity College London, tweeted mwedzi wapfuura:
'Ndinovimba kuna Mwari kuti ndakanganisa, asi kwandiri, zviri kutaridzika zvakanyanya sekunge tasvika kune imwe nzvimbo yekumisikidza, nekupisa kwepasirese, tembiricha yepasi pegungwa, kurasikirwa kweaizi, uye mamwe ma paramita, zvese zvichipfuura nepadenga. .'
McGuire anga achipindura mishumo akaiswa musoro ne CNN saka:
‘Machati mana anotyisa anoratidza kunyanyisa kwakaita mamiriro ekunze iye zvino’
Chirevo chakati:
'Tangori pakati pegore ra2023 uye zvinyorwa zvakawanda zvemamiriro ekunze zviri kuputswa, mamwe masayendisiti ari kuridza mhere, achitya kuti inogona kunge iri chiratidzo chekudziya kwepasi nekukurumidza zvakanyanya kupfuura zvaitarisirwa.'
Iwo ‘machati mana anotyisa’ akaratidza kuti tembiricha yemhepo yepasi rose yakakwira kusvika kurekodha mwero muna 2023. Makungwa ari kupisawo kusvika kurekodha mwero uye haaratidzi chiratidzo chokumira. Aizi yegungwa reAntarctic iri kudzikira zvakanyanya. Uye atmospheric carbon dioxide mwero yakakwira chinyorwa chitsva muna 2023. Asi mazhinji emarekodhi aya haasi kungoputswa chete, ari kudzimwa. Brian McNoldy, inyanzvi mumadutu uye kukwira kwegungwa paYunivhesiti yeMiami Rosenstiel School, captured chaizvo:
"Ndinoziva kuti kune miriyoni yevanhu vanogovana tembiricha inomaly machati uye mepu nguva pfupi yadarika, asi pane chikonzero chakanaka cheizvozvo. Aya mabhodhoro zvachose uye vanhu vanongotarisa zvinhu izvi havagone kutenda zvavanoona. Pane chinhu chinoshamisa zvikuru chiri kuitika.’
Panenge panguva imwe cheteyo, vanoda kusvika mamiriyoni 110 vokuAmerica muUnited States vaiva Zvinonzi kugara munzvimbo yeUS weather service yakanzi 'inosangana nekupisa kwakanyanya', nevanhu vanosvika zana vafa nekuda kwekuMexico uko tembiricha yakasvika pa100C. Parizvino gore rino, kufa kwese kwakabatana nekupisa muMexico kwakada kusvika katatu nhamba muna 50.
Muzvinafundo McGuire tweeted yedambudziko iri:
'Nehurombo, hausati waonekwa nuthin'.
CNN inocherekedza kuti mamwe masayendisiti "akati kunyange zvinyorwa zvichityisa, hazvisi zvisingatarisirwi nekuda kwekuenderera mberi kwekusvibiswa kwekupisa kwepasi uye nekuuya kwechiitiko chemamiriro ekunze El Niño, chine kupisa kwepasi rose".
Ryan Stauffer, musayendisiti weNASA achidzidza kusvibiswa kwemhepo uye ozone, tweeted mepu yeUnited States inoshamisa ine nzvimbo dzakakura dzakakanganiswa nekupisa kwakanyanya nepo dzimwe nzvimbo huru dziri kutambudzika nemweya wakashata nekuda kwe500 Canadian firefire, hafu ichiri kusadzora. Moto wakapisa 8 miriyoni mahekita epasi, inenge saizi yeAustria, ichiburitsa 160 miriyoni matani ecarbon mumhepo. Iyo nzvimbo yakaparadzwa yakakura kupfuura yakasanganiswa nzvimbo yakapiswa muna 2016, 2019, 2020 uye 2022, according kuenda kuCanada Interagency Forest Fire Center. Chokwadi, nzvimbo yacho yakapetwa ka11 paavhareji yeCanada panguva imwe cheteyo mumakore apfuura.
Stauffer akati:
‘Map chii. Kugamuchirwa kune itsva pyrocene?'
Maguta matatu makuru eUS, Chicago, Detroit neWashington DC, akaverengerwa se nzvimbo nhatu dzepamusoro dzakaipisisa munyika yemhando yemhepo. Zvinoenderana nemhepo yekutevera sevhisi IQAir, ese maguta matatu mhepo inorondedzerwa se "isina hutano". Musayendisiti weatmospheric, Matthew Cappucci Akadaro:
‘D.C. uye vazhinji veU.S. vachange vachitarisana nehutsi hunokachidza nguva yese yezhizha - pamwe kusvika Gumiguru.’
MuTexas, yakakura kupisa dome kuuraya vanhu vanosvika gumi nevaviri kwatumira kudiwa kwesimba kune rekodhi yakakwira sezvo dzimba nemabhizinesi vakasimudza mhepo yekufefetera. Pasi penzvimbo yekupisa, mafambiro emhepo anoteya simba guru munzvimbo yakati inotambanudzira mamaira mashanu kusvika gumi muhupamhi uye nepakati pemazana kana zviuru zvemamaira yakachinjika. Iyi miitiro yemhepo inogadzirwa nejet stream, bhendi remhepo inofamba inokurumidza kumusoro mumhepo, iyo inowanzofamba nenzira yakafanana nemasaisai. Iyo Financial Times mishumo:
‘Apo masaisai akakura, anogona kufamba zvishoma nezvishoma uye pakupedzisira akamira, zvichiita kuti mweya unopisa kana kuti unotonhora uvharwe.’
Michael Mann, Purofesa wePasi uye Sainzi Yezvakatipoteredza paYunivhesiti yePennsylvania, akati shanduko yemamiriro ekunze iri kuunza 'yakanamira' nzira dzejeti dzezhizha, zvichiita kuti mweya unopisa unonyura uvharwe munzvimbo imwe.
PaDemocracy Zvino! munyori wesainzi Susan Joy Hassol akanyeverwa kuti kudonha kweTexas's overstrained electric grid pasi pekupisa dome kwaizokonzera 'kufa kwakapararira':
'Gridhi yeTexas inoita kunge iri panjodzi yechiitiko chekupisa seizvi nekuti haina simba rekuunza simba kubva kune dzimwe nzvimbo. Uye iyi kupisa dome iri kuwedzera chaizvo. Vanoti vanhu vane mamiriyoni 50 vakatosangana nekupisa kune ngozi nedenga rinopisa.’
Yambiro yaHassol inoyeuka zvakataurwa muna Kurume 2022, pazvaitaurwa zvakanyanya kuti mapango ese epasi anga asangana nezviitiko zvekupisa zvakanyanya. Nepo kupisa kweArctic kwakaona tembiricha inoshamisa 30 degrees C (86 degrees F) pamusoro penguva dzose, tembiricha muAntarctica yaive 34 degrees C (93.2 degrees F) pamusoro penguva dzose. Muzvinafundo Jeffrey Kargel, musayendisiti mukuru paPlanetary Science Institute, Tucson, Arizona, Akadaro:
'Inoratidzika sechiitiko chitsva chemamiriro ekunze, uye haibatanidzwi mumhando dzemazuva ano dzemamiriro ekunze. Kana zvikaitika kaviri mumakore maviri, ndichati zvichaitika zvakare, uye zvakare, munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana dzepasi.’
Sokunge ari kudzokorora Hassol, Kargel akawedzera kuti tinofanira kubvunza kuti chii chingaitika kana chiitiko chakafanana chikaitika muHouston, Texas, toti, pakati pechirimo, apo kukwirisa kwakajairika kuri 95 degrees F:
'Zvakanakai, ngatimbotarisai chiitiko cha2021… Epicenter yechiitiko cha2021 yaive muLytton, BC, uko zuva rakaipisisa rakasvika tembiricha 44 degrees F (24.4 degrees C) inodziya pane yakajairika tembiricha yekupera kwaJune. Ingoita wedzero yakapfava: 95 + 44 = 139 F [59.4 madhigirii C] ... Tichitarisa hunyoro hwemuHouston, ndichaita fungidziro: buda panze imomo, kunyangwe mumumvuri, uye unenge wafa mumaminetsi mashoma. '
Kargel akaenderera mberi achiti:
'Zvino, nekupisa kungangosvika kuma130's muHouston, ndichazvitora sekufunga kuti grid yemagetsi ichadonha. Saka, hapana kutonhora kwezvivakwa. Pachave nekumwe kudziya kwekupisa kunoita kuti zvivake zvemukati zvitonhore kupfuura kunze kwemasikati kukwira, asi vanhu vazhinji vachapona hunyoro hwepamusoro uye tembiricha yemumba toti, kunyangwe mukudzika kwe120's F?
'Vangani vanhu vaizofa kana kupisa kwedome kuchibva kuHouston kuenda kuAtlanta? Kana kuti Charleston, South Carolina kuenda kuBoston? Kana New Delhi kuenda kuHo Chi Minh Guta?'
Vanofara veBritish Sunbathers Vanotarisira Imwe 'Sizzler'
Zvichakadaro, muBritain, UK ichangobva kuve nekupisa kwaJune kwerekodhi, iyo Met Office yasimbiswa. Avhareji yetembiricha yepamwedzi ye15.8C (60.4F) yakapfuura avhareji yepamusoro yaJune tembiricha yakanyorwa ne0.9C. Kare, marekodhi ekupisa akatyorwa nezvidimbu zvidiki zvedhigirii - rinenge dhigirii rimwe kusvetuka kukuru.
Worse anogona kunge ari munzira. Pamusoro pemifananidzo yakajairwa yevanopisa zuva vanofara mune deckchair paBournemouth beach, Daily Mirror musoro wenyaya. verenga:
'UK yakatarisana nekupisa "kupisa dome" nemukana we40C inopisa mamiriro ekunze mumavhiki mashoma'
Chirevo chakataura kuti 'kupisa kwepasirese kuri kutyora marekodhi - uye vangangoramba vachityora marekodhi'. Jim Dale, mukuru weBritish Weather Services 'mukuru wezvemamiriro ekunze, akati:
‘… pane… mukana wega wega tichatyora mucherechedzo we35C musvondo rechipiri raChikunguru naNyamavhuvhu. Ndiwo mukana we50/50.
'Madhigirii e40C anowanzoitika muna Nyamavhuvhu kupfuura muna Chikunguru. Asi pane zvese zvekutamba kusvika pachirimo.’
Mirror yakacherekedza kuti mavhiki maviri ekutanga aNyamavhuvhu yaive nguva ingangoita yekuona kudzokorora kwegore rapfuura 40 degree C chiitiko icho bepa rakatsanangura nemufaro se'sizzler'.
Kupindura kune yedu chirevo pamusoro peMirror's upbeat inotarisa pane vanofara sunbathers, tweeter akapindura:
‘Vanhu vanofara vanoshanda vari kunakidzwa nekupenya kwezuva kwechirimo. Hatigone kuve nazvo, isu @medialens?'
Kuisa chirevo ichocho uye izwi rekuti 'sizzler' mune maonero, Juley Fulcher, mumiriri wehutano hwevashandi uye kuchengetedza kune anofambira mberi asina purofiti Public Citizen, inofungidzirwa kuti kupisa kunopisa kunokonzeresa kufa kwevashandi zviuru zviviri muUS gore rega rega uye vanosvika zviuru zana nemakumi manomwe vakakuvara - vazhinji vacho zvichibva mumabasa emukati mumaresitorendi nematura, pamwe nemabasa ekunze. Fulcher akati:
‘Iri idambudziko guru. Chiito chakanonoka.’
MunaNovember apfuura, Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, World Health Organisation's Regional Director kuEurope, Akadaro yeEurope:
'Kubva pane data yenyika yakatumirwa kusvika zvino, inofungidzirwa kuti vanhu vanosvika zviuru gumi nezvishanu vakafa zvakanyanya nekuda kwekupisa muna 15,000. Pakati peavo, vangangoita zviuru zvina vakafa muSpain, vanopfuura chiuru muPortugal, vanopfuura zviuru zvitatu nemazana maviri muUnited Kingdom, uye. vanenge zviuru zvina nemazana mashanu vakafa muGermany vakataurwa nevakuru vehutano mukati memwedzi mitatu yezhizha.
‘Kufungidzira uku kuri kutarisirwa kuwedzera sezvo nyika dzakawanda dzichitaura nezvekufa kwakanyanya nekuda kwekupisa.’
Vatori venhau vehunyanzvi parutivi, vanhu vazhinji vari kuwedzera kunetseka nezvekudonha kwemamiriro ekunze nekuda kwechikonzero chakareruka, chakanaka. Chitsva chinokatyamadza tsvakurudzo neSosaiti yeActuaries Research Institute yakawana kuti 53% yevaAmerica vakashuma kuti mamiriro ekunze akaipisisa - kusanganisira madutu, chamupupuri, kupisa, moto wesango uye mafashamo - zvakakanganisa hutano hwavo. Uyezve, inopfuura hafu yevakabvunzwa vakashuma kukanganisa kwakashata pamidziyo yavo (51%), nharaunda (58%) uye kunzwa kwekuchengeteka (65%) kubva kune zvakanyanya mamiriro ekunze.
42% vakawana kukuvara kwenguva pfupi kana kurwara
23% inoshuma matambudziko kune iripo chisingaperi mamiriro
15% vakatambura nekukuvara kwenguva refu kana chirwere chitsva chisingaperi.
Zvichakadaro, muna 2022 chete, makambani mashanu emafuta - ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, uye TotalEnergies - kupfuura. zvakapetwa kaviri zvavakawana kunhoroondo yenguva yose ye $200 bhiriyoni.
Mamiriro ezvinhu aripo iye zvino akaipa sei? Makore maviri apfuura, Bill McGuire akanyora zvakadzama kutendeseka uye zvinobaya mwoyo tsamba yakashama kune vaaishanda navo vezvemamiriro ekunze. Hazvina kukwanisa kujeka kubva pane zvaakataura, izvo masayendisiti emamiriro ekunze haasi kutaura chokwadi (uye kwete nenzira iyo vanoramba mamiriro ekunze zvinoreva!):
‘Chokwadi, chikonzero nei usina kumbobvira wafarira kunamira musoro wako pamusoro pekarusvingo kutya kupfurwa nevezera rako. Semusayendisiti pamwe chete ndinonzwisisa izvozvo - ndinozviita. Hapana chinhu chakaipisisa kupfuura kusekwa munharaunda yako. Zvinogona, ndinoziva, kureva kurasikirwa kwemukurumbira, kudzvanya pamari, uye kuvhara kwemikana yekufambira mberi. Ini ndinonzwisisa, saka, nei uchiramba uchitamba pasi chero chinhu chingakwevera kutarisa, sei iwe wakarara pasi, tow [sic - toe] mutsara wepati.
"Ndinoziva, zvakare, zvaunofunga uye zvaunonzwa nezve shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, nekuti ndataura nevakawanda venyu pachivande, uye mhinduro - pasina kusarudzika - yanga iri yekuti mamiriro echokwadi akaipisisa kupfuura iwe wagadzirira kubvuma paruzhinji. Saka, kuseri kwefacade, ndoziva kuti watsemuka pakati pekutaura nekuzvidzora, kuti uri kushuvira semumwe munhu kuti matanho atorwe anodiwa nesainzi. Kupfuura zvose, ndinoziva kuti munotya, kungofanana nomumwe munhu upi zvake, nokuda kweramangwana revana vako munyika ine nyongano yomugariro wokunze yavachamanikidzirwa kugara.’
Haisi chete masayendisiti emamiriro ekunze. Tinoda vose kutanga kutaura, kufumura manyepo emakambani enhau ezvakajairwa, kuda kuita pakarepo.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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Ini ndiri "mudhara wekare." Ini handinzwe sekudaro, uye handifunge kudaro, kunze kwekuti ndapedza makumi emakore ndichiedza kuzvinzwisisa ini, vamwe, nenyika, uye ini ndichiziva kuti pane zvimwe zvakawanda zvandinoda kuziva, Ndakadzidza zvakawanda. Ndaigara ndichifunga kuti handizovepo kwenguva yakareba zvakakwana kuti ndinyatsoona "poindi yekunongedza." Vana vangu, vazukuru vangu? Ehe. Ndakanzwa tsitsi netsitsi kuti vaizodaro. Asi pano munaChikunguru 7, 2023 ndinofanira kubvuma, ndiri pakati pekunongedza uye pamwe ndave kwenguva. Pasinei nechitendero chemunhu oga kana uzivi hwechitendero, “Mwari ngaatinzwire ngoni!”