Zvinogona kunge zviri nguva isati yakwana kufunga mhedzisiro yehupfumi yehondo yeUkraine nekupinda kweRussia kuchiri pasi pevhiki. Nekudaro, mamwe maratidziro ekuti zvinhu zviri kuenda kupi zvinogoneka. Neyambiro iyoyo, zvinotevera zvinomiririra kufunga kwekutanga kwezvingangoitika-mune zvimwe zviitiko zvatove kuitika-mhedzisiro yehupfumi yehondo yeRussia, European Union, uye USA.
Economic Migumisiro yeRussia:
Mhedzisiro yekukurumidza hupfumi hweRussia mumazuva ekutanga kwaive kudonha kwakanyanya mumisika yayo yemasheya uye zvemari. Vagadziri vemari vakatanga kuburitsa mari uye vachimhanya kudivi kuti vamirire zvinozoitika. Asi hazvifanirwe kuve zvakawandisa pane izvo. Mari yeasset mutengo deflation ingori yepepa kukosha uye haina kukanganisa mutengi weRussia kana hupfumi hwayo hwese.
Kudonha kukuru kwemisika yemari kunowanzo kuperekedzwa nekudonha kweukoshi hwemari yenyika uye Ruble yeRussia ndizvozvo. Yakawawo. Kudonha kwemari kunoreva kuti nyika inofanirwa kubhadhara zvakawanda pakutenga zvinhu kubva kunze kwenyika. Nekudaro, zvibvumirano zvekunze zviripo hazvichinje mumutengo. Saka pane kunonoka kwezvibvumirano zvitsva kuratidza kukwira kwemitengo chete kana zvibvumirano zvekare zvapera. Saka pane kunonoka kweinflation kunokonzerwa nekudonha kwemari yenyika. Izvozvo zvingasamisa vatengesi kukwidza mitengo, zvisinei, munguva yekutarisira kukwira kwemitengo yekunze nekuda kwekudonha kwemari yeRussia. Muchidimbu, kumwe kukwira kwemitengo kuri kuitika nekumwe kunouya gare gare.
Kugadzirisa inflation, Russia inogona kumanikidza mamwe kudzora mitengo kudzikamisa kukanganisa kune vatengi muzvinhu zvakakosha zvevatengi. Saizvozvo, bhanga repakati rinogona kutora matanho ekuisa pasi pasi pekudonha kwemari. Hurumende inogona kutopinda mukati uye kutenga mamwe masheya ekudzikisa kuderera kwemusika wemasheya kana ichida. Japan yanga ichitenga masheya kwemakore kuti itsigire misika yayo yemari. Zvinoita sekuti bhanga guru reRussia ratora matanho ekudzikamisa Ruble. Hapana zviito zvisati zvaitika kudzora mitengo kana kutsigira misika yemasheya, zvisinei.
Nguva yepakati nepakati uye yakareba ndeipi mhedzisiro yekuwedzera kwezvirango neUSA neNATO EU nyika pahupfumi hweRussia?
Zvirango paKuyerera Kwezvinhu zveRussia (Kutengeswa kunze & Kunobva kunze)
Pane zvirango pakufamba kwezvinhu nemasevhisi, zvirango kune vanhu, uye zvirango zvakanangana nemabhangi uye mari yekudyara mari, uye pakubhadhara kwenyika.
Pachivanhu zvirango zveUS zvakanangana nekucheka zvinhu (zvigadzirwa) zvinoyerera zvichipinda nekubva kuRussia. Ndiko kuti, kutengeswa kubva kune dzimwe nyika hupfumi hwenyika kuRussia (inflow) pamwe chete nekutengesa kubva kuRussia (outflows) kubva kuRussia kusvika kune imwe nyika yehupfumi.
Kudzikiswa kwezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuRussia kwaizoguma nekudzikiswa kwechigadzirwa muRussia uye nekudaro kukwira kwemutengo waro-kureva kuwanda kwekuwedzera. Kudzikiswa kwezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuRussia kunogona kureva kudonha mukugadzirwa muRussia uye nekudaro kuderedzwa mumaindasitiri iwayo akakanganisika. Kukanganisa kwakashata pakugadzirwa uye basa, zvisinei, kunoitika chete nekunonoka kwenguva. Kukanganisa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kunoenderana nekuti yakawanda sei yezvinyorwa izvo nyika, Russia, yakaunganidza isati yapihwa chirango. Saka masanctions kukanganisa kuyerera kwezvinhu zvinotora mavhiki nemwedzi, sezvazvinoita chero mhedzisiro inokonzeresa kukwira kwemitengo nekushaikwa kwemabasa. Zvichakadaro kune akawanda 'work rounds' Russia inogona kuita kuitira kuti ive nechokwadi chekuyerera kwezvinhu zvakakosha kuburikidza nedzimwe nzira dzekutengeserana. Russia inogona kuramba ichitenga kana kutengesa kuburikidza nenyika yechitatu, kunyanya China pamwe.
Mukufamba kwenguva kuderedzwa kweRussia kunze kwenyika nekuda kwezvirango nekufamba kwenguva kunoita kuti Russia iwane mari shoma mune dzekunze mari (kunyanya madhora). Kudimbura kutengeswa kwemafuta negasi kweRussia kwaizoramba Russia sosi yayo huru yekuwana mari yekunze inodiwa pakutengesa zvimwe zvinhu nemasevhisi. Kubvisa Russia kubva pakutora madhora kubva mukutengesa gasi remafuta kwaizonyanya kukosha, sezvo 85% yemafuta ese epasi rose anoitwa mukutengeserana kwepasi rose uye kuchengetedza mari-kureva dhora rekuUS!
Kudzimwa ikoko kwaizokanganisa zvakanyanya kugoverwa kwemafuta epasi rose pamwe nemitengo yemafuta asina kukora. Russia ndiyo yechipiri pakukura mugadziri weoiri pasi rose, ichigadzira anopfuura miriyoni madhiramu gumi pazuva. (Iyo USA ndiyo yekutanga nekuda kwehunyanzvi hwayo hwekugadzira, kugadzira 10m pazuva zvakajairika). Kubvisa kutengesa kwemafuta eRussia kunoderedza kupihwa kwepasirese kweasina kuchena nekusvika 11%. Kudzikiswa kwe15% kwekutengesa kunokonzeresa kudonha kukuru kwemisika yemafuta uye kungangoita kwenhoroondo kuwedzera kwemutengo wemafuta. Mitengo yepeturu papombi muUS inogona kukwira madhora 15 galoni kana kudarika.
Nepo iyo US iri iyo yakakura inogadzira oiri, inotengawo mafuta kubva kune dzimwe nyika-kunyanya Canada, Mexico, uye kunyange vamwe kubva kuRussia. Sei zvakadaro, kana ari mukuru mugadziri? Nekuti makambani emafuta eUS anoendesa kunze kwakawanda kwakanatswa zvigadzirwa zvemafuta eUS kune dzimwe nyika ukuwo achiunza kunze kunze. Hazvizivikanwe kuti kuderedzwa kwe15% kwemafuta epasi rose kungave nei pamitengo yemafuta eUS kana mitengo yemafuta pasi rose. Kugadziriswa kukuru kwemusika uye shanduko dzinofanira kuitika. Inogona kusafamba zvakanaka. Kuvhiringika kunogona kuita nyonganyonga. Ndosaka US neEU vanga vachizeza kunanga kuRussia mafuta uye gasi kuendeswa kuEurope.
Izvi zvinounza nzvimbo mbiri zvakare dzinogona kukanganiswa nezvirango kuRussia: mhedzisiro yekumiswa kwepombi yeRussia-German Nordstream 2 gasi pombi uye mhedzisiro yesarudzo yeUS/NATO/EU yekunyima Russia mukana weiyo SWIFT yepasi rose kubhadhara system. Ngationgororei zvinogona kuitika kune ese ari maviri, kuRussia pamwe nepasirese.
Nordstream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline
Zvakawanda zvinogadzirwa munhau nezveRussia-Germany Nordstream 2 gasi rechisikigo pombi. Kuteerera midhiya yeUS, Biden yakavhara zvachose kuyerera kwayo gasi. Asi munhu angavhara sei zvisati zvavhurwa? Iko hakuna gasi rinoyerera kuburikidza neNord2 parizvino. Zvakare, Chancellor weGermany, Olaf Sholtz, angoratidza kuti Nord2 haisi kuzovhurwa munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Yambomiswa. Kwete kuvhara. Zvichakadaro, Germany inoenderana neanopfuura makumi mashanu muzana egasi rayo rechisikigo kubva kuRussia. Izvo hazvisi kuzochinja nekukurumidza, sezvo inowana iyo 50% kubva ku50 mapaipi anoyerera neUkraine kuenda kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweEurope uye kubva ikoko kuenda kuGermany. Mamwe mapaipi egasi anoyerera kubva kuRussia kuburikidza neTurkey kuenda kuEurope. Iko hakuna kutaura neUSA kana Europe nezve kuvhara mapaipi iwayo. Saka Russia icharamba ichiwana yakakosha mari yekunze kubva kutengesa gasi kuenda kuEurope. Muchokwadi, inogona kuwana yakawedzera mari yegesi sezvo mitengo yegasi iri kukwira uye huwandu hunotengeswa huchave hwemutengo wepamusoro.
Saka zvirango hazvinei neNord2, sezvo zvisipo. Pane chete 'kuvharwa' kwepombi yegesi, Nord2, iyo isati yatopa gasi.
Zvakawanda zvinotaurwa pamusoro peU.SA nedzimwe nyika (Qatar, Azerbaijan, nezvimwewo) zvichipa Germany neEurope gasi rechisikigo panzvimbo yeNord2. Asi izvozvo hazvina basa munguva pfupi. Germany inoshaya zvivakwa zvekugamuchira US liquid natural gasi (LNGs). Uye zvichatora makore mashanu kuvaka zvivakwa izvozvo. Pamusoro pezvo, zvichatora Qatar nemamwe masosi makore maviri kungowedzera zvivakwa zvayo zvekugadzira kuitira kuti igadzire imwe gasi rekutengesa kuGermany.
Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa zvakare kuti yese yezvino kubuda kweRussia gasi rechisikigo kuEurope kunobva pamapaipi manomwe egasi aripo anoyerera achipfuura neUkraine achienda kuEast Europe uye kubva ikoko kuenda kuGermany nekumadokero. Mamwe mapaipi akawanda anoyerera nemuTurkey achienda kuEurope. Hazvizivikanwe kana zvirango zveUS zvakagadzirirwa kucheka kuyerera kwegasi uku zvakare. Zvinonzi Europe yese inowana makumi mana muzana egasi rayo kubva kumapaipi aya parizvino. Kubvisa izvo zvinoreva kudonha kungangoita kwemaindasitiri eEU.
IUS yave ichiedza kwemakore kuti Europe itenge US gasi rechisikigo pachinzvimbo cheRussia. Gasi reUS rinodhura zvakapetwa nekuda kwemitengo yekufambisa uye kukosha kwekuishandura kuita fomu remvura (LNG) uye wozodzokera kune gasi fomu kana yaburitswa zvakare kuEuropean ports. Apo US yakaunza kupararira kwakawanda pasi paObama yakasimudza kugadzirwa kweUS gasi rechisikigo (nemafuta) zvakanyanya. Kuendesa kunze iyo oiri uye gasi kunoshanda kudzivirira glut yekugovera muUSA iyo inoderedza mitengo muUS. Saka kuwana Europe kutenga gasi reUS kunosimudza purofiti yeUS energy corporations: inowana mari yakawanda yekutengesa kubva kuEurope uye inosvika pakuchengeta mitengo yakakwira muUS zvakare. Zvave zvakaoma kugonesa maGerman kusvika ikozvino kuti atenge anodhura zvakanyanya US gasi. Hondo muUkraine ndiyo mhinduro kune iyi dambudziko reUS. Zvinogona kuita kuti Europe ichinje kuUS gasi kunyangwe mutengo wakakwira zvakanyanya. (Vamwe vanofungidzira kuti zvakapetwa kashanu).
SWIFT International Payments System
Mubhadharo wepasi rose unoreva kuti nyika nemabhizinesi adzo anotengesa zvinhu nemasevhisi anobhadharwa sei. Kubhadharwa kwekutenga nekutengesa โ kureva mafambiro emari โ kunoitika kuburikidza netiweki yemabhanga epasi rose akabatana, mabhanga eUS ari iwo anotamba zvakanyanya sezvo mari zhinji iri mumari yekutengesa pasi rose, dhora rekuAmerica.
SWIFT ndiyo nzira iyo mabhanga eUS nehurumende vanogona 'kutarisa' mafambisirwo emabhanga epasi rose kuona kuti ndeipi nyika kana bhizinesi ringave riri kutyora zvirango zveUS. US mabhanga makuru ari pakati peSWIFT uye anogona kuona vanotyora vakamiririra hurumende yeUS. Asi SWIFT inotungamirwa kuBelgium uye US yaizofanira kuita kuti EU irambe ichiramba mabhanga eRussia kuwana SWIFT kutengesa mafuta ayo kana chero kunze kwenyika. Pakutanga EU - uye kunyanya Germany neItari, yakanga isingagone kuita izvozvo. Saka SWIFT yakatanga kusunungurwa kubva kuBiden's US chiziviso chezvirango zvichangobva kuitika. Nekune rimwe divi, mauto ezvematongerwo enyika muUS uye kunyanya muUkraine neEast Europe NATO yakatanga kusunda nesimba kuti iite zvirango zveSWIFT kuRussia. Biden neUS vanga vachisunda nesimba kuti vatore dzimwe nyika dzeEU/NATO (kunyanya Italy neGermany) muchikepe.
Sezviri pachena US yakabudirira kuita izvi. Sezvo munyori uyu akafanotaura pakutanga kwekupinda kweRussia, US / NATO yaizosanganisira kuramba SWIFT kuRussia seimwe yezvirango zvayo. Iri idanho idzva remhando - uye rine njodzi - munhoroondo yezvirango kuRussia. Inogona kudzosera kumashure kukonzeresa kukanganisa kwehupfumi kuUS, EU nemisika yemafuta epasi rose nekudaro zvichizokonzera kukwira kwakanyanya kwemafuta ane chekuita nemitengo pasi rose uye kuburikidza nemitengo yemafuta muhupfumi mukukwira kwemitengo. Yatove kukwira kwese kwese nekuda kwemaitiro ekugadzirisa cheni neCovid uye nekudzikira kwazvino, inflation inogona kukwira zvakanyanya muEurope neUS uye kudzoka kwehupfumi hwenyika. Iko kukwidziridzwa kwemutengo kunogona kumisa kuyedza, kusimba kupora kweUS, EU uye hupfumi hwenyika. Zvakadaro, zvinoita sekunge kusanganisa kurambwa kweSWIFT kuRussia nechinangwa chekuvharisa mari yayo yemafuta negasi iri pahurongwa uye ingangoita mukati memazuva. Iwo mauto ezvematongerwo enyika ehondo arikusundidzira kunetsana kwakawanda neRussia muUkraine saka akakunda zuva kusvika pari zvino seSWIFT. Mhinduro dzeRussia padanho iri dzinogona kutarisirwa.
Pane nzira dzekuRussia dzaigona kuita 'kupera kumhanya' kutenderedza SWIFT. Inogona kungoshandisa mari yeChina Yuan mukutengesa kwayo. Kana kuti inogona kubatana neChina uye nevamwe kumisikidza inofanana yekubhadhara mari yenyika ichipfuura SWIFT. Mukana iwoyo wakasimudzwa uye wakayedzerwa kare muna 2012 apo USA yakatemera zvirango pakutengesa kweIran mafuta ayo.
Pane imwezve 'basa rakatenderedza' SWIFT rinogoneka: Russia inogona kubatana neChina ichishandisa mari yedhijitari. China yatove munzira yekuenda kumari yedhijitari, yatove yakaunza kuChina.
Kunyangwe zvirango zveSWIFT zvaunzwa munguva pfupi (zvichida) kana kuti kwete, zviri pachena kuti kutonga kweUS kweSWIFT system-kuburikidza nedhora reUS uye kutonga kwemabhanga eUS pasi rose-ndiyo chishandiso chakakosha cheUS mari imperialism. Izvo zvakakosha sekutonga kweUS kwemamwe masangano ehupfumi hwenyika, seIMF, World Bank, uye dhora reUS sekutengeserana kwepasirese uye kuchengetedza mari.
Makambani mazhinji eUS Akaregererwa Zvirango zveRussia
Parizvino Biden haisati yaisa zvirango zvakanangana neoiri negasi reRussia nekuti kukanganisa kwayo pamafuta epasi rose nemitengo kungave kwakakosha. (Kuramba kweSWIFT kungangoreva zvisina kunanga chirango chikuru). Asi pakuraira kwemakambani emafuta eUS neEU Biden akanyatso bvisa mafuta negasi kubva muzvirango. Pakutanga SWIFT yakanga isingabatanidzwe zvakare. Asi handiyo rondedzero yose yevasingabhadharwi. Biden muzuva rechipiri rekupindirwa kwakaziviswa kuti Aluminium inotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuRussia haina kuregererwa, mushure mekunge asangana neveUS auto, Boeing, uye maCEO eindasitiri ye canning ayo anoita seanovimba neRussia mbishi aluminium inotengeswa kuUS. Inosvika gumi muzana yealuminium mbishi inouya kuUS kubva kuRussia. Europe inotonyanya kutsamira kune yekuRussia aruminiyamu yekunze. Saka vemakambani evamiriri vakazviwana vasunungurwe pazvirango zveRussia zvakare. Zvinogona kutarisirwa zvimwe zvakakosha simbi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuRussia ichatsigira uye chinyararire kuwana vasunungurwe kubva muzvirango zvakare.
Russian Banking Zvirango
Biden pakutanga akazivisa zvirango kumabhanga eRussia, asi akasiya makomba mahombe mune zvirango izvi zvekutanga zvisingabvire mabhanga maviri makuru eRussia, Sber bank neVTB bank. Aya maviri aive pakati pekugadzirisa SWIFT kudivi reRussia. Zviripachena, makambani makuru emafuta eUS aisada kukanganisa misika yepasi rose. Dzvinyiriro paBiden, zvisinei, yakasimuka kuti iwedzere zvirango. VTB yakawedzerwa kune iyo rondedzero. Sberbank sezviri pachena haisati iri kunyangwe izvo zvingave, kana munguva pfupi zvichachinja.
Zvirango zvebhangi hazvireve chete kukanganisa kuyerera kwemari yekubhadhara kubva mukutengeswa kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kubva kuRussia, ingave oiri nezvimwe zvekushandisa uye zvigadzirwa. Zvirango zvebhangi zvakagadzirirwa kudzivirira mabhanga eRussia uye vanoisa mari kuwana kumisika yemari kumadokero.
MaRussian emakambani uye ehurumende mabhondi anowanzotangwa kutengeswa kumadokero, kazhinji anoonekwa muLondon misika yemari. Zvirango zvekubhanga zvakagadzirirwa kudzima izvi. Zvirango zvebhangi zvinoreva kukwanisa kwemakambani eRussia kutengesa chikwereti (mabhondi, nezvimwewo) mumisika yekumadokero anogonawo kubviswa. Saka zvinogona kusimudza mari yekudyara kumadokero kweRussia kutanga makambani. Chikwereti chehurumende yeRussia (kureva sovereign bonds) kutengesa kuburikidza nemabhanga ekunze kwaizogurwawo, maererano nezvirango zvitsva. Asi bhanga repakati reRussia rinogona kupinda muno ndokutora (kutenga) chikwereti chekambani neyehurumende se 'mutengi wekupedzisira' mudambudziko - sebhangi guru reUS, Fed, nemamwe mabhanga epakati kumadokero. mamiriro ekukurumidzira.
Zvinonzi Russia mumakore achangopfuura yakaunganidza mari inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana matanhatu nemakumi masere emadhora muhodhi yemari yechimbichimbi ichitarisira kubuda pasi peUS nekumavirira kuvimba nedhora rekuAmerica nemabhanga. Iyo hodhi yemari, mumari yemvura uye goridhe, inowanikwa kugadzirisa zvirango zvekumadokero pamabhangi & hurongwa hwemari. Inogona zvakare kushandiswa kupa mari yekuRussia investor-Oligarchs 'kurasikirwa kwechinguvana kubva kuzvirango zveUS zvinotemerwa mabhizinesi akapfuma. Izvo zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwawo, zvakadaro, kuti zvirango zveUS zvakacheka nzira mbiri: Russia inogona kuomesa hupfumi hwevaenzi vekunze mumabhanga eRussia. Uye kune madhipoziti mazhinji evemadokero evanodyara mari akachengetwa mumabhanga makuru mashanu ekuRussia anoshandira maindasitiri makuru eRussia anogadzira mafuta negasi.
Kupfupisa zvirango zveRussia
Kupeta zvirango zveBiden zvichangobva kuziviswa: hazvingango ratidza kuti zvinoshanda - kunze kwekunge mukana weiyo SWIFT yekubhadhara system ikakurumidza kuitwa. Zvirango zveRussia zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kunze kwenyika hazvina mhedzisiro uye kune yechitatu sosi 'basa rakatenderedza' iro makambani ekumadokero (uye kunyangwe hurumende) angade 'kutarisa neimwe nzira' kuitira kuti ive nechokwadi chekuwaniswa kwezvinhu zvakakosha zvekutengesa zveRussia. . Izvo zvinoshandawo kune zvirango pamabhangi eRussia uye mari yepasi rose inoyerera. Pachave nekumwe kukanganisa kwenguva refu, asi hapana chikuru chenguva pfupi kukanganisa hupfumi hweRussia. Zvinhu uye mari inoyerera zvirango zvese zvine mukana 'wekushanda'.
Nyanzvi dzezvemari nevemari vanoziva izvi. Ndosaka, apo misika yemari yeUS neEU yakatanga yadonha nemazana masere mapoinzi Russia payakapinda zuva rekutanga, misika yemari yakakurumidza kudzoka kumashure apo Biden akazivisa zvirango zvekutanga zuva rimwe chetero. Vanoita mari pasi rose vanoziva kuti zvirango zveBiden zvakazara nemaperforations. Uye kana kutsvedza kunze kwegomba rimwe chete kana akawanda hazvigoneke, Russia ine gonhi rakakura rekumashure iro rinogona kuchinjana mari nemidziyo nenyika dzese. Inonzi China.
Naizvozvo Russia ichaona munguva pfupi kushanduka kwakakosha mumisika yayo yemari uye nemari yayo. Ichasangana nekukwira kwemitengoโsezvichaitawo hupfumi hwenyika pasi rese sekuvhiringwa kwekupa kwezvinhu (oiri, gasi, simbi, zviyo nezvimwe zvekudya) zvichikonzera mitengo yakakwira pasi rose. Inogona kutoona kumwe kugadzirwa kwekutanga kuderera, uye nekudaro kushaikwa kwemabasa, sezvo misika yezvinhu uye nekudaro kudiwa kunokanganiswa pasi rose. Asi haisi kuzotambura dambudziko guru rehupfumi nekuda kwehondo muUkraine. Uye kana mamiriro ezvinhu akaipisisa akaitika, ine mari yayo inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana matanhatu nemakumi masere emadhora.
Kadhi hombe yemusango muzvirango zveUS ndiyo SWIFT system. Kana ikarambwa kuRussia, ichafanirwa kugadzira basa rakatenderedza rinenge rakatiomera - kushandisa China Yuan nedzimwe mari kana kutobatana neChina mukuwedzera zvakanyanya kushandiswa kwemari yedhijitari mukutengeserana kwekunze.
European Economic Impact
Kufanana neRussia, EU ichaona misika yakakosha yemari uye kusagadzikana kwemari munguva pfupi. Vese vari vaviri vakaramba zvakanyanya zuva rekutanga rekupinda uye vakapora.
Europe haina simba rakawandisa kana zvichienzaniswa neUSA inova nyika inogadzira mafuta negasi rechisikigo pasi rose. Naizvozvo EU ichaona kuwedzera kwakakosha kwemitengo kunotungamirwa nekukwira kusingaperi uye kwakasimba kwemutengo wepasi rose wemafuta negesi. Mitengo yemafuta epasi rose inofungidzirwa kuti ichakwira kubva pachiyero chemazuva ano $100 / mbiya yebhenji Brent (Northsea) crude panguva yekupinda, ichikwira kusvika pamadhora zana nemakumi maviri neshanu / mbiya. Sezvambotaurwa, mitengo yegasi yechisikigo ichakwira zvakare munguva pfupi. Uye kana nekufamba kwenguva EU ichifanira kutenga gasi rechisikigo kubva kuMideast kana USA muchimiro cheLNG, mitengo ichakwira zvakanyanya.
Kudzoreredza kwehupfumi hweEurope kubva kuCovid zvakare kwanyanya kuyedza zvichienzaniswa nehupfumi hweUS. Sezvo bhanga raro repakati richironga kukwidza mitengo yemhindu sezvo inflation ichikwira, zvingangoita kuti kuwedzera kwemitengo iyi kudzikame kudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi chaihwo nekukasira kupfuura kukwira kwakafanana nebhanga guru reUS pahupfumi hweUS. Kuwedzerwa kwemuhoro kwave kunonoka kupora muEU zvichienzaniswa neUS nguva pfupi yadarika. Kukwira kwemitengo yesimba uye zvigadzirwa kuchaodza kudyiwa kwemhuri zvakanyanya uye nekukurumidza munyaya yeEU zvakare. Mitengo yechikafu inogonawo kukwira sezvo EU inowana zvimwe zvekurima kubva kuUkraine. Muchidimbu, kukwira kwemitengo nekunyanya kunzwisiswa kwehupfumi chaihwo hweEU kumari yemubereko yebhanga guru zvinozononotsa kumuka kwehupfumi hwayo zvakanyanya. Kuwedzerwa kune kudzikira kunogona kunge kuri mutsva weCovid Omicron2 musiyano unoratidzika zvakanyanya kutapukira kupfuura yekutanga Omicron uye parizvino iri kupararira nekukurumidza muzvikamu zveEU uye ichawedzera maitiro ekuderera kwehupfumi uye kupora nekuda kwehondo mhedzisiro kuburikidza nekukwira kwemitengo uye mubereko. policy.
Europe ichanzwawo mhedzisiro yakawandisa yekupindura kweRussia kudzoreredzwa kwemidziyo yemabhanga eRussia, kuwana chikwereti cheRussia, uye zvirango zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika kuRussia. Hupfumi hweEurope hwakabatanidzwa neRussia kwete musimba chete, asi mune runyorwa rurefu rwezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri nevatengi.
Asi imwezve mhedzisiro yakaipa mukufamba kwenguva ndeyekuti US ingangoda kuti EU itore chikamu chikuru chemutoro wayo wekudzivirira uye mashandisiro. Kupatsanurwa kwemari yemutero kubva kuzvirongwa zvekushandisa magariro kuenda kukudzivirira kuchakonzera kudzikira kwemari inoraswa kumhuri zhinji dzeEurope. Kufanana nekukwira kwemitengo, izvo zvakare zvichakanganisa kushandiswa kwevatengi uye kunonoka kudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi uye kukura.Chikwereti chehurumende cheEU uye chikwereti chemakambani chingangokwira nekufamba kwenguva nekuda kwekuderera kwekukura uye inflation.
Muchidimbu, EU inomira kuti iwane zvakakosha zvakashata zvinokanganisa hupfumi hwayo semhedzisiro yehondo yeUkraine. Nenguva pfupi nhanho yakawanda yeasset uye currency volatility, asi nekufamba kwenguva yakakwirira inflation isingaperi, kuderera kwemari yemuhoro chaiyo, kurasikirwa kwemisika muRussia, uye zvichizokonzera kuderera kwehupfumi uye kukura. Central bank monetary policy response kugadzikana hakusi kuvimbisawo. Ko iyo European Central Bank ichasimudza mibairo yekuyedza kuderedza inflation? Kana hupfumi hwayo huri kusangana nezviitiko zvine chekuita nehondo izvo zvave kutononotsa kupora kwayo uye hupfumi?
Iyo USA Economic Impact
Kufanana neEU iyo USA yaive yatoona kukwira kwemitengo yevatengi kusati kwaitika. Muchokwadi, yakakwirira isingaperi inflation kupfuura Europe. Kunyange iyo USA yakasununguka pane simba rakawanda kupfuura EU, zvakadaro ichafanirwa kubata nekukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira nekuda kwekuvhunduka kwesimba repasi rose mumisika yemafuta. Makambani emafuta anokwidza mitengo kwete nekuda kwekupihwa zviri pamutemo kana kudiwa zvinokonzeresa, asi nekuti sevanotonga muhupfumi hwavo hwepamba vanongogona. Izvo zvave kutoitika muhupfumi hweUS pamberi pehondo yeUkraine. Ikozvino kukwira kwemitengo yevatengi vekuUS kwakafambiswa nemitengo yemafuta. Inosvika hafu yeazvino 7.5% yegore inflation rate yave iri mutengo wemafuta.
Misika yemari yeUS munguva pfupi yakadonhawo zvakanyanya asi yakapora nekukurumidza-sekuEurope uye zvishoma muRussia. Mari yekuAmerica, dhora, yange isisanyanye kushanduka kudarika Euro uye kunyange yakaderera pane Ruble. Misika yemari yeUS inogona munguva pfupi, zvakadaro, kusangana nechipiri chikuru chakashata kubva kubhangi rayo repakati, Fed, kukwira kwemitengo munaKurume. Kukwira kwemwero uku kungangove kwakakura kudarika chero Europe ingatore. Saka inflation yakakwira, yakasanganiswa nekukwira kwehuwandu hwepamusoro, pamwe nehondo yeUkraine inogona kuumba musanganiswa wezviitiko zvehupfumi zvisina kunaka izvo zvinokonzeresa kushanduka kwechipiri mumisika yemari yeUS.
Kukwira kwemwero wakabatanidzwa, inflation, uye maonero ehondo - kana iyo yekupedzisira ikaenderera uye ichidzikira - ichanonotsawo kumuka kwehupfumi hweUS, sezvazvichaita kuEurope.
Mhedzisiro yakakura pahupfumi hweUS, kana ichienzaniswa neEU, ichave imwezve kuwedzera mukudzivirira kweUS / mari yehondo mushure mehondo yeUkraine. Ne Pentagon inoshandisa gore rino yatove pamadhora mazana manomwe nemakumi manomwe nemasere (uye inodarika $ 778 bhiriyoni kune ese masosi ekushandisa kwekudzivirira kweUS), makumi emabhiriyoni ekuwedzera mukushandiswa kwemauto anogona kutarisirwa nekuda kwehondo yeUkraine. Kushandiswa kwemari uku kuchawedzera mune zvasara zvegore razvino remari, asi enderera mberi zvakare mumabhajeti ekudzivirira epagore anotevera uye anotevera. Izvi zvichawedzera kushomeka kweUS uye chikwereti chenyika uye, nemari yemubereko yakakwira, inokonzeresa mutengo wepamusoro wekubhadhara chikwereti unokanganisa kushomeka kwebhajeti zvakare. Kukwira kwekushomeka uye chikwereti - mumashure mekurekodha kushomeka uye chikwereti nekuda kweCovid-ane hurongwa, 1-2020, zvinogona kutungamira kune kudzvinyirirwa kwezvematongerwo enyika kutema zvirongwa zvekushandisa mari munharaunda zvakare-kureva kuti austerity fiscal policy.
Kukwira kwemitengo kunoramba kuripo, kudzikiswa kwemari yekushandisa muhurongwa hwemagariro evanhu, uye kukwira kwemhindu yebhanga guru renyika zvichanonotsa kumuka kwehupfumi kwagara kuripo. Kana zvese izvi zvakakomba muhukuru uye hukuru, zvinogona kuguma nekudzika kwakapetwa kaviri pane imwe nguva kunonokera 2022 kana kutanga kwa2023.
Muchidimbu, hupfumi hweUS huchanzwa kuipa kwehondo yeUkraine maererano nekukwira kwemitengo, mari inoraswa yemumba, uye hurongwa hwemari hwebhanga guru. Mune dzimwe nzira migumisiro yehondo ichava shoma pane migumisiro inonzwika muEurope; nedzimwe nzira zvichida zvakanyanya.
Nguva Yakareba Mhedzisiro yeGlobal Capitalism
Hupfumi hwepasi rose nhasi hwakabatana zvakanyanya: Mukufamba kwezvinhu nemasevhisi chaiwo; mumari yemari inoyerera pakati pemisika yemari; mumari inoenderana nemitengo yekuchinjana; uye mumabhanga uye mubereko dzemariโkutaura asi zviri pachena zvikuru. Mhedzisiro yehupfumi yehondo yeUkraine ichakanganisa hupfumi hwese hutatu - hweRussia, Europe neAmerica. Mamiriro acho anogona kunge akasiyana paunhu uye pahuwandu. Asi zviito zvinotorwa kune mumwe zvine kuvandudzwa kwehupfumi kusingadzivisiki kune vese.
Kukwira kwemitengo nekuda kwekukwira kwemafuta nemitengo yezvinhu kuchakanganisa vanhu vese. Mhinduro dzemitemo yebhanga guru dzichava dzisina kusimba mubhodhi rose. Kukura kwehupfumi kunonoka kunozoguma nekuti kuyerera kwemidziyo nemasevhisi kuchikanganiswa uye matambudziko ezvekugovera pasi rose anoenderera mberi uye zvichida kutowedzera. Hondo uye mhinduro dzezvematongerwo enyika neUS-EU dzehupfumi nezvematongerwo enyika dzinogona kusimudzira shanduko huru muhukama pakati penyika nemasangano ehupfumi hwenyika.
Zvinoramba zvichionekwa kuti hupfumi uhwu, uye hupfumi hwepasi rose pachahwo, hunogona kutora kushushikana kwehondo nekudonha kwayo - munguva pfupi mushure mekuparadza kweCovid dambudziko repasi rose. Zvichakadaro, mamwe matambudziko maviri esystemic anogona kunge asiri kupera kana: dambudziko rehutano repasi rose rekugara richichinja hutachiona uye nekuipa kwemamiriro ekunze.
Nepo marudzi achipfuurira kurwisana muhondo dzinopisa nedzinotonhora Hondo Yezvakasikwa Yokurwisana Nomunhuโmuchimiro chezvirwere zvisingaperi uye kudziya kwepasiโichapfuurirawo. Sezvo nyika dzinorwisana nedzokutanga, dzapashure sezvingabvira hadzisati dzichizotarisirwa. Uye kana zvakadaro, mamiriro epakati pezana remakore haazofadzi.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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