Tarisiro yevezvenhau nevezvehupfumi yeUS kwemwedzi yakati wandei yanga ichiwedzera painflation. Mumavhiki achangopfuura, zvakadaro, vagadziri vemitemo veUS vakamukawo pakuziva kuti inflation isingaperi, yakadzika midzi, uye iri kuwedzera kutyisidzira kune ramangwana rehupfumi hweUS.
'Chikumbaridzo chekuzivisa' chakasvika svondo rapfuura apo bhanga guru reUnited States, Federal Reserve, rakawedzera kukurumidza kwemitengo nezvikamu makumi manomwe neshanu - zvichinzi kuunza kukwira kwemitengo pasi pesimba. Kunyangwe iyo Fed inogona kubudirira mukudzora inflation uye kuita izvi pasina kukonzeresa kudzikira kunoramba kuchionekwa asi hazvigoneke. Kugadzirisa inflation pasina kukonzeresa kudzikira ndiyo mubvunzo wepakati wehupfumi kune kwasara 75.
Zviripachena kuti vamwe vanofunga kuti izvi zvinogonekaโkureva kuti kumwe kukwira kwemitengo kunoderedza kukurumidza kwekukwira kwemitengo pasina kuendesa hupfumi chaihwo mukuderera uye zvokonzera kunonzi 'kumhara kwakapfava'. Zviripachena kuti Fed neBiden manejimendi vanotenda kuti zvichaitika. Asi kwaya iri kukura yevazhinji vezvehupfumi nemadhipatimendi ekutsvagisa mabhanga havafungi kudaro. Anenge ezuva nezuva mafambiro matsva nemabhangi epasi rose uye vaongorori vanoita senge kuderera kwehupfumi kunopfuura makumi mashanu kusvika makumi mashanu kungangoita - uye kusvika nekukurumidza mukupera kwa50 kupfuura muna 50.
Ichi chinyorwa chinopedzisa pasina mubvunzo kuti nhasi Fed mari yemitemo yekuwedzera mubereko haikwanisi kuderedza inflation ichidzivirira kuderera - chero zvakada kufanana neFed rate yakakwira muna 1980-81 yakaita. Uye panguva ino kukwira kwemazinga hakuzodi kukwira zvakanyanya semuna 1980-81 vasati vakwidza hupfumi kune kumwe kudzikira kwechokwadi.
Kubva muna Chikumi 2022 iyo Fed yakasimudza bhenji yayo yemubatanidzwa mari mubereko kusvika padanho repamusoro re1.75%. Inoronga kupeta kaviri izvozvo pakupera kwa2022, kusvika pa3.5% kusvika 4%. Asi hupfumi hweUS hwave kutomira uye zviratidzo zviri kukura zviri kuramba zvichiderera. Sekupokana kwakaita munyori uyu kubva mukudonha kwa2021, chiyero cheFed kusvika pa4% kana kupfuura chingangoreva 'kumhara kwakaoma', kureva kudzikira. Uyezve, hazvizodzikisi inflation zvakanyanya. Mitengo haizodzike zvakanyanya kudzamara US yanyatsodzika. Izvi zvinoreva mamiriro anonzi stagflation, chibvumirano chehupfumi chaihwo pakati pekukwira kwemitengo uye mamiriro ehupfumi asina kuonekwa muUS kubva mukupera kwema1970. Stagflation yatosvika kana munhu akafunga nezve hupfumi hweUS hunenge hwakatsetseka muhafu yekutanga ye2022; uye ichadzika kana kuderera kunotanga muhafu yechipiri.
Kuti tinzwisise kuti sei inflation isingadzike zvakanyanya muna 2022, uye kuti sei kudzikira kwemari kuchizoitika gore razvino risati rapera, zvakakosha kutanga tanzwisisa Anatomy yekukwira kwemitengo (kureva chimiro uye shanduko) yakabuda mugore rapfuura. Iyo anatomy, kana chimiro, chekukwira kwemitengo inoratidza zvazvinokonzeresa hazvisi kuenderana neFed rate inokwira mukati menguva pfupi kana yepakati yemwedzi gumi nembiri inotevera.
Izvo zvinodikanwa kuti unzwisise kuti nei mutemo wemari muchimiro cheFed rate inokwira isingaderedze inflation nguva zhinji kusati kwadzikira-uyewo nei iwo mareti akafanana achikwira achaita zvakanyanya kukonzeresa kuderera kwenguva refu Fed isati yaunza inflation rate. pasi kusvika kune yayo yakareba yenhoroondo chinangwa che2%.
Iyo Anatomy yeUS Inflation: 2021-22
Mushure mekukwira zvine mwero kutenderedza 4% chiyero chepagore apo hupfumi hweUS hwakatanga kuvhurwa muchirimo cha2021, zvakakosha kuti ticherechedze kumhanya kwemitengo yevatengi kwakaramba kwakatsiga kwemwedzi mina inotevera muzhizha rose ra2020, panosvika 5.5%. (Bureau yeLabour Statistics Kuburitswa Kutsva, Chivabvu 11, 2022, Chati 2) Iko kumhanya kwakatanga kukwira zvakadzikama mwedzi wega wega mushure mekupera kwaNyamavhuvhu 2021.
Kutanga munaGunyana wapfuura 2021 US inflation haina kungotanga kukwira asi kubva ipapo yakadzikwa uye isingaperi. Kunyangwe veUS policy elites havachazviramba. Pakutanga muna 2022 Secretary Treasury Janet Yellen akataura pachena kuti inflation yeUS ichave 'nguva pfupi uye yenguva pfupi'. Muna June akabva aramba uye akakumbira ruregerero nokuda kwekufanotaura kusina kururama. Uye svondo rino rapfuura vakabvuma kuti inflation yave 'kuvharirwa mukati' kune kwasara 2022.
Ndezvipi zvino zvikonzero uye humbowo inflation yave yekusingaperi uye isingaperi-kusvika kuderera kwehupfumi kwatanga?
Hapana kupokana kuti Demand, nekuda kwekuvhurwazve kwehupfumi hweUS mushure meiyo yakaipisisa yeCovid munaKurume-Kubvumbi 2021 yakakonzera kubuda kweinflation muchirimo-chirimo cha2021. Asi Kudiwa kwakawandisa haisiriyo tsananguro yekutanga. Kudiwa kwezvinhu nemasevhisi kwakakwira muna Kubvumbi-Chivabvu 2021 vashandi vachidzokera kumabasa avo uye mari yemuhoro yakawedzera. Nekudaro, rekodhi rinoratidza mushure mekukwira zvine mwero muna Kubvumbi-Chivabvu 2021, mitengo yevatengi yakadzikira muzhizha rose ra2021, Chikumi kusvika Nyamavhuvhu 2021, inopfuura 5%. Yakaramba yakatsiga ipapo padanho iroro kwemwedzi iyoyo sezvo hupfumi hwakaramba huchivhurika.
Kuwedzera kwemitengo nekukurumidza kwakatanga mukupera kwezhizha, kutenderera Nyamavhuvhu-Gunyana. Kukwira kwemutengo uku kwakabatana nekukwira kwezvinetso mumaketani eSupply-zvese zviri muchimiro chekutumira kunze kwenyika kuUS pamwe nenyaya dzepamusha dzeUS dzine chekuita nekutakurwa kwezvinhu, kuchengeterwa zvinhu, uye kuwana kwevashandi vane hunyanzvi. Muchidimbu, sezvo hupfumi hweUS hwakayedza kuvhurazve cheni dzepasirese dzaive dzichiri kuputsika uye, mukati, misika yeUS Product neLabour yakakuvadzwa zvakaipisisa nekukanganisa kwezviitiko zveCovid 2020 kusvika Kurume 2021.
Vezvematongerwo enyika vanochengetedza, zvido zvebhizinesi, uye bapiro ravo renhau dzakanyanya kutaurwa panguva iyoyo - uye kazhinji vachiri kuramba nanhasi - kuti yaive rupo rwakanyanya, rutsigiro rwemari yakawandisa kubva kuAmerican Relief Plan (ARP) zvirongwa zvekuchengetedza magariro zvakapasiswa neCongress. muna Kurume 2021, uye zvirongwa zvevakavatangira gore rakapfuura, izvo zvakakonzera kudiwa kwakanyanya pakati pa2021 uye nekudaro kukwira kwemitengo kwakatevera mushure meGunyana regore iro.
Asi kunyangwe data rehurumende yeUS haritsigire maonero iwayo. Iyo ARP yakabvumidza chete mabhiriyoni mazana masere emadhora kushandiswa mumwedzi gumi nembiri inotevera. The 800rd kota - chikamu chekutanga chakazara apo kushandiswa kwechirongwa cheARP kwakarova hupfumi uye mitengo payakatanga kukwidziridzwa muna Nyamavhuvhu - yakaona isingapfuure mabhiriyoni mazana maviri emadhora kubva kumapurogiramu eARP achipinda muhupfumi. Macheki emari ekuwedzera akange atogoverwa uye ainyanya kushandiswa mu200nd quarter. Chii chakasara mu3rd zvehukuru hupi nohupi hwaiva mabhenefiti ekuwedzera ekushaikwa kwemabasa, rubatsiro rune mwero rwekurojesa, uye rubatsiro rwekuchengeta vana kumhuri dzepakati nepakati uye dzine mari shoma dzakaunzwa muna Chikunguru iyeye. $200 bhiriyoni jekiseni pamwe rakakwirira zvakare. Zvirokwazvo haasi ese emadhora mazana maviri emabhiriyoni emari akaiswa akashandiswa pakota iyoyo. (Sezvinobvumwa nenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi, hunhu hwevatengi hwekushandisa mari yakawedzerwa nguva dzose ishoma pane 'imwe'โkureva kuti havangoipedza yose pakarepo). $200 bhiriyoni kana zvakadaro zvichida yakashandiswa chaizvo. Iyo $ 150 bhiriyoni inofananidzwa ne150rd kota yakazara GDP inodarika madhora mashanu emadhora! Hapana nzira yehupfumi iyo saizi inogona kukonzera kukwidziridzwa kwemutengo kwakatanga panguva iyoyo kubva mujekiseni remadhora mabhiriyoni zana nemakumi mashanu pamadhora anodarika madhora mashanu.
Uyezve, $150 bhiriyoni inogona kunge yakanyanyisa fungidziro zvakare. Yakawanda yekukurudzira kweARP yakagurwa zvakanyanya kutanga kwaGunyana, mwedzi wekupedzisira we3rd kota: semuenzaniso, mabhenefiti ekuwedzera ekushaikwa kwemabasa akapihwa kare kuvashandi vane mamirioni gumi akapera, pamwe nerubatsiro rwekurenda, mari yePayroll Protection Plan kumabhizinesi madiki, uye mamwe majekiseni madiki.
Muchidimbu, kusvika pamwero weDemand wakakonzera kukwira kwemitengo mune ese mavirind uye 3rd kota, iyo Demand effect inotsanangurwa zvakanyanya nekuenderera mberi nekuvhurwa kwehupfumi kwete kukonzerwa nehurongwa hwekutsigira mari yeAmerican Rescue Plan iyo isingadariki $100- $150 bhiriyoni mu3 yese.rd kota apo mitengo yakatanga kuwedzera. Zvakawanda zvekupokana zvekuti vashandi vaive vanyanya kushata nemari kubva kumabasa avaidzokera uye hurumende yakawandisa-rupo zvirongwa zvemari yeARP! Iyo data haitsigire maonero aive Demand uye kushandiswa kwehurumende Demand kunyanya ndiyo yakakonzeresa kutanga kwekukwira kwemitengo munaGunyana 2021.
Tsananguro ingangove yekukwira kwemitengo mukupera kwezhizha ra2021 yaive mabhodhoro epasi rose, kunyanya zvinosanganisira kutengwa kwezvinhu kubva kuAsia neChina kunyanya. Muna Nyamavhuvhu-Gunyana yaive yakanyanya mitengo yezvinhu ichifambisa inflation. Consumer spending pamasevhisi zvakare yakanga ichangobuda. Dambudziko neSupply cheni raive makambani pasirese akange avhara mashandiro awo panguva yakaipisisa yeCovid, achibvumira vashandi nevashambadziri kukukurwa. Pakatanga kuvhurwa hupfumi muzhizha ra2021, vazhinji vevashandi ava nevatengesi vaive vasipo. Izvi zvaive zvechokwadi nemidziyo yepasi rose nemamwe makambani ekutakura. Pakanga pasina ngarava dzakakwana dzekuendesa zvinhu kubva kuAsia kuenda kuNorth America. Ndeipi yekutumira yaive iripo pakutanga yakatsaurirwa kutakura pakati peAsia nyika kutanga. Mukuwedzera, USA west coast ports yakanga ine dambudziko rakafanana: zviteshi zvaive zvishoma nevashandi vechinyakare uye zvekufambisa. Kwete chete vashandi vepachiteshi asi vatyairi vakazvimirira vaitakura zvinhu kubva pachiteshi cheLos Angeles, semuenzaniso, kuenda kudzimba dzepakati pepakati. Uye kubva kune iwo ma-mega-warehouse kuenda kunzvimbo dzekuchengetera matunhu kubva izvo zvinhu zvinobva zvagoverwa kune makambani ekuchengetera uye zvitoro. Kufanana nekushomeka kwevatyairi vemarori, pakanga pasina kudzoka kwakakwana kwevashandi kumatura zvakare. Dambudziko rakafanana, rakati shoma rekushomeka kwevashandi raivepo nevashandi vezvitima. Mune mamwe mazwi, macheni ekupa epamba eUS anga achiri akatyorwa-pamwe chete nekupa kwepasirese.
Zvirongwa zvehurumende yeUS 2020 uye 2021 zvekusimudzira mari yaifanirwa kudzivirira matambudziko ekutengesa (vashandi nekutakura) nekupa mabhizinesi eUS nemadhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi mashanu emadhora ezvikwereti uye magrants ekuti vashandi vawo varambe vachishanda panguva yekuvharwa kwehupfumi hweCovid. Yainzi Payroll Protection Program, PPP. Zvinopfuura zvikamu zvitatu muzvina zvePPP zvinopihwa kumabhizinesi-zvinenge zvikwereti zvese zvakachinjirwa kumari yerubatsiro-zvakarongerwa kushandiswa mukubhadhara mihoro yevashandi. Zvimwe zvacho pamitengo yakananga yebhizinesi, semitengo yekushandisa, mubereko pazvikwereti, nezvimwewo. Zvisinei, rekodhi ikozvino inoratidza kuti izvi hazvina kuitika. Pakanga pasina ongororo yekuona kuti mari yemadhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi maviri nemashanu emadhora yakashandiswa sei. Mazhinji emabhizinesi aiwana rubatsiro rwePPP akagumura vashandi vavo zvakadaro. Mushure mezvo, sezvo hupfumi hweUS hwakaedza kuvhurazve mabhizinesi mamwe chete haana kuwana vashandi vavo vakasimwa basa nekukurumidza. Matambudziko ezvekutengesa mudzimba ndiwo aive mhedzisiro.
Zviripachena kuti kukwira kweinflation kweUS kwakatanga kupera kwaNyamavhuvhu-Gunyana 2021 kwakabatana nenyaya dzeSupply chain โ dzepasi rose nedzemumba. Kwaisava Demand. Zvimwe zvikamu zvitatu kubva muzvina zvemitengo yaikwira panguva iyoyo zvaive zvine chekuita neSupply; chasara Chinodiwa - uye icho Chinodei zvakanyanya nekuda kwekukurumidza kuvhurwa kwehupfumi pane kune zvirongwa zvemari zveARP izvo zvaive zvave kupera munaGunyana 2021.
Yakafukidzirwa pachiitiko ichi chekunyanya kukwira kwemitengo yeSupply, yakasanganiswa neimwe Demand yakakonzera kukwira kwemitengo, chaive chimwe chiitiko chakakosha chakabuda sechinhu chikuru se3.rd kota 2021 yakapera: kureva kukwira kwemitengo kwakapararira nemakambani emuAmerica ane simba remusika rakavagonesa kukwidza mitengo kupfuura zvakajairwa Demand and Supply.
Sezvo inflation yakakwira uye veruzhinji vachiziva nezvazvo, makambani ane masimba ekutonga (kureva apo makambani mana kana mashanu kana mashoma akagadzira 80% kana kupfuura yechigadzirwa kana sevhisi muhupfumi) akanyengedza uye akatora mukana iwoyo kuziva kweveruzhinji nezvekukwira kwemitengo. kuitira kukwidza mitengo yavo-kunyangwe apo indasitiri yavo yakanga isiri kusangana nenyaya dzekutengesa.
Muenzaniso wakanaka ndiwo makambani emafuta eUS anga asina dambudziko rekupa panguva iyoyo uye haasati. Zvitunha zveoiri zveUS zvaikwanisa panguva iyoyo, sezvazvino, kukwidza goho remafuta muUS (kureva kugovera) nemamwe madhiramu anosvika miriyoni maviri pazuva. Vakasarudza kusiya mafuta aya pasi, kwete kuwedzera kugadzirwa kuUS, uye vakaramba kuvhurazve matsime mazhinji ekuchera avakange vavhara panguva yakaipisisa ye2-2020 yakapfuura.
Mumwedzi yakatangira kutanga kweCovid shutdowns munaKurume 2021 zvitunha zvemafuta zveUS zvaigadzira anopfuura mamirioni gumi nematatu pazuva; pakupera kwa13 vanga vachigadzira zvisingaite mamirioni gumi nerimwe pazuva (uye zvichiri). Zvakangodaro, makambani emafuta eUS akakwidza mitengo yavo nekukurumidza kupfuura chero imwe indasitiri. Pakazosvika chikamu chechina 2021 mitengo yemagetsi yaive ichikwira pa11% pagore, maererano neUS GDP account (US Bureau yeNyika Economics, NIPA Tafura 2.3.7).
Nemitengo yave kuwedzera mushure meGunyana 2021 chinhu chitsva chakakosha zvakare chekutyaira mitengo chaive chisiri chekupa kana kudiwa zvine chekuita. Kwaive kushandiswa kwemitengo nemakambani eUS ane simba remusika kuita kudaro. Uye akange asiri makambani emafuta chete, kunyangwe aive nemhosva yeinopfuura hafu yekukwira kwemitengo panguva iyoyo โ uye nanhasi. Mamwe makambani ekugadzira chikafu, makambani endege, zvekushandisa, uye zvichingodaro nesimba re monopolistic vakaita saizvozvo. Ichi chezvematongerwo enyika (simba remusika) chikonzero, chakasanganiswa neDemand uye Supply mauto, mushure meNyamavhuvhu zvakakonzera kumwe kukwira kwemitengo kuburikidza nekwasara kwa2021.
Kutanga muna 2022 mamwe masimba akatangawo kuona iyo US Anatomy yeInflation:
Kutanga Kurume 2022, yakawedzerwa uye yakafukidzirwa kune vatyairi veinflation muna 2021 zvaive zvirango zveUS neEU pazvinhu zveRussia, izvo zvainyanya kunetsa sezvo hupfumi hwenyika hwaive huchiri mubishi rekuyedza kuvhura uye kudzoreredza uye kuporesa Covid yakapwanya cheni dzepasirese.
Russia inopa 20% kusvika 30% yezvinhu zvakawanda zvakakosha zvepasi rose-kusanganisira oiri, gasi uye kugadzira mafuta enyukireya muchikamu chesimba. Asi zvakare zvigadzirwa zvemaindasitiri zvesimbi senge nickel, palladium, aluminium uye zvimwe zviwanikwa zvinodiwa pakugadzira mota, simbi uye zvimwe zvinhu muUS neEU. Zvakare zvekurima zvakaita se30% yegorosi repasi rose; 20% yechibage chepasi rose chinoshandiswa mukugadzira chikafu chemhuka; 75% yemafuta anokosha emiriwo semasunflower; uye 75% potashi fetireza-kudoma inonyanya kukosha.
Kunyangwe zvirango zveUS/EU pazvirango izvi zvakakosha zveRussia zvisati zvatanga kukanganisa kuwanikwa kwemari, vatengesi vemusika wepasi rose vakatanga kukwidza inflation vachitarisira kuti zvirango zvichazotanga kushanda. Vafungidziri vakakurumidza kuteverwa nemakambani epasi rose ekutakura zvinhu akakwidza mitengo yavo pamberi pezvirango chaizvo. Ivo vakabatanidzwa zvakare nemakambani einishuwarenzi ekutumira. Nguva yese yekutengeswa kwezvinhu, macapitalist muzvikamu zvinokwanisa kushandisa kushomeka kuri kuuya kunotungamirwa nezvirango vakatanga kukanganisa mitengo vachitarisira. Kuperevedza kwenyama kubva kuzvirango kubva ipapo kwakatanga kuve nekumwe kukanganisa mukupera kwe2nd kota 2022 sezvo hondo muUkraine yakawedzera uye zvirango zvakaiswa. Vafungidziri, vatakuri uye veinishuwarenzi vakabva vawedzera kuwedzera kwemitengo kune zvakatemerwa zvirango.
Munyori wePfuma yeAmerica, Yellen, paakataura fungidziro yake kutanga muna 2022 kuti inflation ichave yenguva pfupi, hapana mubvunzo kuti akazviita zvichibva pafungidziro dzisiridzo dzekuti zvimwe matambudziko epasi rose uye emumba ekupera kwezhizha ra2021 aizogadziriswa muna 2022, uye mutengo wemakambani. kugunun'una kuti nyaya dzezvekutengesa dzakavharika dzinogona kudzikirawo neimwe nzira. Zviri pachena kuti haana kupindira mukufembera kwake kweinflation kukosha kwehondo nezvirango.
Mutungamiri Biden vakadaidza kukwira kwemitengo muchirimo 2022 se 'Putin's Inflation'. Chirevo ichi chinogona kuiswa pakushomeka kwezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvekurima zvakavhiringwa zvakananga munzvimbo dzehondo dzeUkraine, asi hazvigone kuiswa pamitengo yemagetsi epasi rose ayo anga ari kubva mukati mehupfumi hweRussia kwete hweUkraine. Saka kusvika padanho rekukwira kwemitengo kuri kukonzerwa nekukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi - uko kunotora inopfuura hafu yekukwira kwemutengo padanho revatengi - kunonyanya kukonzerwa nezvirango zveBiden uye nekudaro 'Biden's Inflation' kwete yaPutin.
Na makumi mavirind kota 2022 zvese zviri pamusoro zvakasanganiswa masimba anotyaira kukwira kwemitengo (kureva kudiwa kuri pakati nepakati, cheni dzepasi rose & dzepamba dzakaputsika, kukwira kwemitengo yemakambani, oiri, simba & mitengo yezvinhu) zvakasangana kuti zvigadzire zvakamisikidzwa, zvisingaperi, uye kuenderera mberi kwekukwira kwemitengo.
Panguva iyo mitengo ichangoburwa iripo, Kurume-Chivabvu, mitengo yevatengi (CPI Index) yanga ichikwira zvakatsiga 8.5% chiyero apo mitengo yevagadziri inozopedzisira yadya mumitengo yevatengi yave kukwira nekukasira chiyero che10-11. % kwemwedzi mitatu. Uyezve, kudzvanywa pamitengo yevagadziri (iyo inodyisa mumitengo yevatengi) inogona kusimudzira kunyangwe iyo 10-11% ikozvino mugadziri wemutengo wepamusoro wepakati. Semuenzaniso, iyo ichangoburwa Producer Price Index yakaburitswa muna Chivabvu inoratidza chikamu che'Intermediate' zvinhu uye masevhisi mitengo iri kukwira nekukurumidza. Zvinhu zvakagadziriswa zvepakati (semuenzaniso simbi) zvanga zvichikwira nechikamu che21.6% chegore gore rapfuura, ukuwo zvinhu zvepakati zvisina kugadziriswa (semuenzaniso gasi rechisikigo) zvakakwira pachiyero che39.7% pagore.
Supply cheni uye Demand masimba egore rapfuura, Chivabvu 2021 kusvika Chivabvu 2022, acharamba achityaira mitengo nemitengo yakafanana kuburikidza nezhizha rino ra2022 uye pamwe gore rose zvakare. Iko kunoratidzika kunge kusingagumi mukuona, semuenzaniso, kuhondo yeUkraine uye Zvirango paRussia zvinoramba zvichiomesa. Kukwidzwa kwemitengo muzvinhu izvi zvakakanganiswa nehondo uye zvirango zvichaenderera mberi sezvichaitwawo kuitika kwekukwira kwemitengo kwemakambani emonopolistic. Commodity remangwana vanofungidzira zvemari vacharamba vachifungidzira; makambani ekufambisa anoenderera mberi nekugadzirisa mutengo kune zvavanobatsira; uye veinishuwarenzi vanoramba vachikwidza mitengo yavo pakutakura zvinhu zvakawanda pasi rese.
Pamusoro pezvo, mauto matsva ari kubuda zhizha rino ra2022 izvo zvichabatsira zvakanyanya mukukwira kwemitengo isingaperi mukati megore rose ra2022 uye pamwe kutopfuura.
Chimwe chinhu chitsva chakadai kukwira kweUnit Labor Mari kumabhizinesi, ayo akawanda achayedza kupfuudza kune vatengi zhizha rino uye kupfuura. Mari yebasa yeyuniti (ULCs) inotarwa nekuchinja kwechigadzirwa kumabhizinesi uye/kana mihoro. Kana muhoro uchikwira, ULCs inomuka; zvakafanana kana kugadzirwa kudonha, ULCs inosimuka. Kunyange zvazvo mihoro ichiita seiri kukwira zvine mwero mumashoko ezita, goho riri kuderera zvakanyanya. Mashoko achangoburwa pamusoro pemafambiro ekugadzirwa kwezvinhu muUS anoratidza kuti kugadzirwa kwezvinhu kuri kudonha nekukurumidza kubva pakatanga kuunganidzwa data muna 1947. Imhaka yekuti bhizinesi rekudyara riri kuderera mukutarisana nekusagadzikana kwehupfumi kuri kukura pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo pamwe nekuderera kwehupfumi. Mupiro wekukwira kwemuhoro mukukwira ULCs uri paavhareji, sekubvuma kwakaita sachigaro weFed Jerome Powell. Dzvinyiriro dzemihoro dzinonyanya kutsveyamiswa kusvika kumagumo evashandi apo nyanzvi dzine hunyanzvi dziri 'hopping' kuti vakwanise kuwana mihoro ye18% paavhareji; Zvichakadaro, mihoro yevashandi vanotambira mari shoma iri kukwirawo vamwe sezvo vakawanda vakaramba kudzokera kubasa neUS $7.25/hr chete izvo zvisati zvachinja kubva muna 2009. Mabhizinesi ebasa aifanira kupa zvakawanda. Asi iyo huru yepakati yevashandi vekuUS haisi kuwana mibairo kune chero yakakosha. Saka 'avhareji' inokwidziridzwa yemuhoro, ine mwero sezvavari, haiverengeri iri kukwira ULCs iyo mabhizinesi achakurumidza, kana asati atotanga, 'kupfuudza' kune vatengi mumitengo yakakwira kune kwasara 2022. Treasury Secretary Yellen iye zvino anobvuma kuti inflation icharamba ichikwira mukati megore rose ra2022-pasina mubvunzo muchikamu chinoratidza masimba matsva ari kuwedzera kusimba kweinflation.
Chimwe chiri kusimukira chekukosha kwekuenderera mberi kweinflation muna 2022 ndiyo iri kubuda 'inflationary expectation'. Ataurwa nasachigaro weFed, Jerome Powell, mumusangano wake wevatori venhau uchangoburwa zvichitevera chiziviso cheFed chemubereko, Powell akataura nezveongororo yevatengi ichangoburwa yeYunivhesiti yeMichigan inoratidza tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yave kubuda zvakare.
Sezvo inflation iri kuramba ichikwira, tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo inoreva kuti vatengi vachatenga nekukurumidza, kana kunyange zvinhu zvavanenge vasina kuronga kutenga, kuitira kudzivirira kukwira kwemitengo mune ramangwana. Izvi zvinoreva imwe simba reDemand iro rinowedzera kune yakajairika anatomy yekukwira kwemitengo, sekudonha kwechigadzirwa uye maULC epamusoro anomiririra imwe Supply simba rinobatsira mukukwira kwemitengo mune ramangwana.
Muchidimbu, iko zvino kupinda musanganiswa wezvikonzero muna 2022 tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo, kudonha kwechigadzirwa kutyaira ULCs uye mutengo unopfuura-nekune vatengi, uye nekuwedzera kumanikidza kukwira kwemitengo nekuda kwehondo yeUkraine uye zvirango kuRussia.
Kana zvese izvi zviri kubuda muna 2022 zvinhu zvawedzerwa kukutanga kwehupfumi hwe2021 uye Supply chain zvikonzero zvekukwira kwemitengo - pamwe nekuenderera mberi kwemitengo yemakambani - mufananidzo wakafara unooneka unoratidza zvikonzero zvakawanda zvekukwira kwemitengo - mazhinji ayo anodyidzana kumashure kune imwe; mamwe ezvematongerwo enyika, mamwe asingaenderane nekutengesa kana kudiwa kwemusika, uye hapana kana chimwe chazvo chinoratidzika kunge chiri pakati nepakati zvakanyanya. Muchokwadi, kukwira kwemitengo yemakambani, kunyengera kwemisika yezvinhu nevafungidziri, hondo yeUkraine, uye zvirango kuRussia zvese zvinomiririra mipiro yekukwira kwemitengo inogona kukurumidza mumwedzi mitanhatu inotevera.
Stagflation Inogona kunge Yatosvika
Stagflation inowanzotsanangurwa sekukwira kwemitengo pakati pekukura kwehupfumi chaihwo. Izvo zvatove patiri muchikamu chayo chekutanga: US GDP ye1st kota ya2022 yakanyora kudzikira kwe -1.5% nepo Atlanta Federal Reserve bank's 'mumvuri' GDP inofungidzira zero GDP (0.0%) kukura kwezvino Kubvumbi-Chikumi 2.nd kota! Kana fungidziro yeAtlanta Fed ikaratidza kuti ndeyechokwadi, ndiko kumira zvakanyanya. Uye kana 2nd kota chaiyo zvibvumirano, zvino inomiririra chikamu chakadzika cheStagflation.
Sezvinongoitawo vezvehupfumi nevezvenhau vakakakavadzana kwemwedzi yakawanda kuti inflation iripo here kana kuti yenguva pfupi, mapundits mamwewo anopokana kuti stagflation ichakurumidza kuitika kana yatosvika. (ona Larry Summers 'azvino pontification kune bhizinesi midhiya kwaanoyambira nezve stagflation kukona kana yatotendeuka).
Chikamu chinotevera chekuwedzera kuri kuuya mukupera kwa2022 uye kutanga kwa2023 kucharatidza kuderera kwehupfumi chaihwo-kureva kudzikira. GDP haizongomira pasina kukura, asi kuderera. Chokwadi, kudzikira kwatove pedyo zvakanyanya kana isu tichizotenda iyo Atlanta Fed's 2nd kota GDP forecast uye akasiyana ekutanga ehupfumi zviratidzo zvino kuoneka. Stagflation inogona kunge yatove pano, se1st quarter US GDP -1.5% contraction inoteverwa neimwe contraction - kwete kungokura zero - mune yazvino 2.nd quarter. Zvikamu zviviri zvakatevedzana zvechibvumirano zvinotsanangura chinonzi 'technical recession'. Tsanangudzo chaiyo yekuderera kwehupfumi yasiiwa kuNational Bureau of Economic Analysis, NBER, nyanzvi dzehupfumi kuti dzifone. Vanogara vakamirira mwedzi mushure mechokwadi kuti vafonere. Asi 'technical recessions' inenge inogara ichikonzera kuziviswa kweNBER mushure mekuderera chaiko. Uye hupfumi hweUS huri pachena padanho rekuderera kwehunyanzvi pashoma.
Biden's Empty Inflation Solutions
Mhinduro dzakasiyana siyana dzaBiden kusvika parizvino zviitiko zvakawanda zvehukama zvakagadzirirwa kuita kuti zviratidzike sechinhu chiri kuitwa pachinzvimbo chezviito zvinogadzirisa dambudziko rekunyura uye risingaperi inflation yeUS.
Mhinduro dzaBiden dzinosanganisira kuwana makambani emafuta eUS uye vamwe vagadziri vemafuta epasi rose kuti vasimudze zvinobuda; neimwe nzira inogutsa nyika dzinobvumirana nezvirango zveUS kuRussia kuti dzisimbise 'cap' pamutengo wemafuta pasi rose; kuderedza mitero yezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuChina kuenda kuUS; kudzikisira mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvemagetsi kune vatengi veUS nekudzikisa mutengo wezvimwe zvinhu zvevatengi; kuwedzera kukwikwidza pakati peUS monopolistic corporation nekupa rubatsiro kune vakwikwidzi vatsva kuti vapinde mumaindasitiri avo; kuunza federal gasi mutero kumiswa.
Kunyangwe kutuka kwaBiden vachipokana nemakambani emafuta, makambani ekutakura zvinhu, uye zvimwe zviri pachena mitengo gouger, zvave kutaura zvese uye hapana chiito. Zvikumbiro zvake zvese hazvisati zvaitwa kusvika nhasi. Anga achingove pfungwa dzakasimudzwa pasina chaidzo dzevakuru kana dzemutemo. Kana kuti vakatorambwa neCongress. Kana kuti, kunyangwe ikaitwa, ichave 'yemitambo' uye inotorwa nemakambani ane kamushonga kadiki pamitengo yevatengi. Kana kuti ichagadzira kushomeka kwekuwedzera kwepasi rose kwemafuta, gasi, uye zvigadzirwa zvesimba kudzikisira kukwira kwemutengo wesimba zvakanyanya.
Zano raBiden rave re "kutaura hurukuro" pasina kufamba, sekureva kunoita chirevo.
Iyo chete mhinduro chaiyo iyo manejimendi akabvumirana chinyararire, asi akashinga kubvuma pachena, ndeyekuita kuti Fed iwedzere kudzikira kuburikidza nerekodhi rekodhi reyero yekukurumidza kukwira pamusoro pezhizha ra2022 riri kuitika. Uye sezvavanotaura, 'chitima chiya chabva pachiteshi'. Idhiri rakaitwa. Biden's 'solution' ndeyekuita kuti Fed iwedzere kudzikira.
Pinda muFederal Reserve
Iyo Fed pachayo yakatofunga nezvekudzikira! Zvakare, ipolicy template yakamboshandiswa kare.
Mabviro ekudzikira kuri kuuya anoonekwa zvakanyanya senge 1981-82 kudzikira. Panguva iyoyo Fed yakawedzerawo kudzikira kwemari nekukwira zvine hukasha mibairo nechinangwa che'Demand damage' sekudaidzwa kwazvinoitwa. Mune mamwe mazwi, panguva ino, zano raive rekuita kuti mhuri 'nevashandi' vabhadhare kuburikidza nekuparadza mihoro yevashandi kuburikidza nekudzinga, nekuti izvo zvaive zvakanyanya panguva iyo Supply yakakonzera inflation yakabatana nekukwira kwepasi rose kuparadzwa kwemafuta neOPEC nepakati. vagadziri vemafuta ekumabvazuva.
Pa 75 basis points Fed rates dziri kutokwira pamwero usina kuonekwa kubva muna 1994. !981-82 kukwira kwehuwandu kwakatonyanya kutyisa. Nekudaro, sekukakavara kwakaita munyori uyu, hupfumi hwenyika husina kusimba uye hwakabatana nhasi kupfuura zvazvaive muna 1980-81 apo Fed yakasimudza mitengo kusvika ku15% uye nezvimwe. Hupfumi hwemazuva ano hwepasi rose hwepasi rose hauzosimudzira kukwira kwemitengo kunyange chikamu chimwe muzvitatu cheiyo 15% isati yaita chibvumirano zvakanyanya.
Zvingangoita kuti Fed irambe ichikwidza mitengo yemitengo pa75 basis points paichazosangana muna Chikunguru, uye pamwe zvakafanana mumusangano unotevera. Pa 4% yebhenji yayo yemubatanidzwa yemari chiyero (kwete pa1.75%) iyo hupfumi huchatsemuka. Haisi kuzosvika pachikamu chimwe muzvitatu chezinga ra1982, iyo 5%.
Nei hupfumi huchatsvedza mukuderera zvakanaka pamberi peiyo 5% chiyero chakakurukurwa nemunyori uyu muna 2017 mubhuku, 'Central Bankers Pakupera Kwetambo Dzavo: Monetary Policy uye Kuuya Kushungurudzika', Clarity Press.
Mukutevedzana kwechinyorwa ichi, nei hupfumi chaihwo hweUS husina kusimba nhasi hunogadziriswa kusanganisira humbowo huchangoburwa hwekuderera kwehupfumi hweUS chaihwo. Zvakare zvinotariswa kuti nei Fed federal money rate ichikwira kusvika 4% kana kupfuura ichizokonzeresa kuderera kwakanyanya kweUS nekukurumidza kwete gare gare, uye, kwete zvishoma, nei Fed rate inokwira yehukuru ihwohwo ingangove nemhedzisiro yakaipa pamisika yemidziyo yemari zvakare, kukonzeresa kushayikwa kwemari kwakakomba uye kunyangwe kusabhadhara mari muhurongwa hwehupfumi hwepasi rose.
Kana kukanganiswa kwemari kwemari kukaitika pamwe nekuderera kwehupfumi chaihwo, ipapo kuderera kwe2022 kunenge kwakadzika muna 2023. Uye mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro dambudziko rehupfumi richaonekwa se 2008-10 uye 1981-82. Kana kuti pamwe kubatanidzwa kwemaviri ekuderera kwesimba mune imwe.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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