Kwemwedzi yakawanda vezvenhau neWashington Pols vanga vachisundidzira dimikira rekuti hupfumi hweUS indege iri munzira yekupedzisira ye'kumhara zvinyoro'. Kumhara kwakapfava kunotsanangurwa sekukwira kwemitengo kuri kudzika zvishoma nezvishoma kune chinangwa cheFederal Reserve chechikamu che2% chemutengo UYE anoita izvi pasina kukonzeresa kudzikira.
Nekudaro, sekuratidzwa kwehuwandu hweinflation muDhipatimendi reVashandi reUS reConsumer Price Index (CPI), ndege 'yekumhara' yakanyatsonamira ichitenderera nhandare yendege!
Hurumende ichangobva kuburitswa muna Ndira 2024 Consumer Price Index report inoratidza kwete chete kuti mitengo yakamira padanho (kureva 'kutenderera'?) kwavanga vari kubva zhizha rapfuura 2023, asi Chirevo chaNdira CPI chinoratidza zviratidzo zvemitengo kutotanga kukwira kamwe chete. zvakare.
Uyezve, kana munhu akasimudza mamwe efungidziro dzisina chokwadi uye nzira dzinoshandiswa kufungidzira inflation muCPI, inflation inogona kunge yakanyanya kukwirisa kupfuura yakataurwa zviri pamutemo. Inoramba ichitenderera kwemwedzi yakawanda, ndege inomhara yakapfava inogona kunge iri kupera gasi.
Iyo CPI ndeimwe yemaindisi emitengo yehurumende akati wandei. Mamwe maviri ndeayo Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index uye GDP Deflator Index. Izvi zvekupedzisira zvinogadzirwa neCommerce department. Iyo PCE inowanzofungidzira inflation chete zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu kusvika kune zvitatu pamutengo wemutengo unopiwa neCPI, uchishandisa fungidziro dzakasiyana uye nzira kupfuura CPI.
Tataura izvozvo, ngatitarisei mushumo waNdira CPI (mushure meiyo Chikamu 2 chechinyorwa chino chicharatidza kuti nei kunyange CPI ichidzikisa inflation uye nei PCE uye GDP Deflator ichiwedzera zvakanyanya).
Ndira 2024 Consumer Price Index
Iyo CPI inocheka uye dices inflation munzira dzakawanda. Aggregate number yayo inonzi the Zvinhu Zvese CPI-U. Ndiyo pfupiso yekuchinja kwemitengo yezvinhu zvese nemasevhisi anofungidzirwa neCPI. zvose zvinoreva anenge mazana mana nemakumi mashanu kana kupfuura eanowanzotengwa nedzimba. Kune mamirioni chaiwo ezvigadzirwa nesevhisi muhupfumi hweUS asi mabhajeti emhuri anenge anoshandiswa zvachose paCPI's 450 kana zvakadaro 'basket of goods and services' inotengwa zvakanyanya nemhuri.
The Zvinhu Zvese chikamu chinobva chapatsanurwa kuita inonzi 'Headline' inflation uye 'Core' inflation. Sezvo chikafu nesimba (kureva peturu, gasi rechisikigo, magetsi, mafuta ekufambisa, girosari, chikafu chepamba, chikafu chiri kure nemba, nezvimwewo) zviri zvinhu zvinowanzochinja-chinja zvakanyanya, kubvisa chikafu nesimba kubva kune Zvese zvinhu zvinokonzeresa izvo zvinonzi. 'Core' inflation. Wedzera zvakare muchikafu uye zvinhu zvesimba uye ndiko 'Headline' inflation.
Kumwe kuparara kwakakosha kwe'All Items' iGoods vs. Services inflation. The Goods chikamu chehupfumi chingangoita 20% yeGDP (Kuvaka-yekugara uye yekutengesa-inenge 8% yeGDP uye Manufactured zvinhu zvinenge gumi nemaviri%). Zvimwe zvese (12%) zvehupfumi hweUS ndizvo Services. Saka Masevhisi anopa chikamu chikuru cheCPI yese uye inflation.
Saka chii chazvino chaNdira 2024 CPI mushumo unotiratidza 'Zvese zvinhu', 'Musoro wenyaya', 'Core' uye zvakakosha zvikamu zviduku zve Goods vs. Services inflation?
Iyo inonyanya kukosha yekutora kubva muna Ndira CPI ndiyo 'Zvese zvinhu' mwero we inflation mwedzi wapfuura uri pamwero wakafanana wawaive mwedzi minomwe yapfuura munaJune 2023-kureva, inflation yakaramba ichikwira pachiyero chimwe che3% chekuchinja kwegore muna Ndira 2023 chaive muna June 2023!
Kuenderera mberi nedimikira rekuti 'soft landning', zvinoreva kuti ndege yeInflation yanga yapinda 'mugumbo rayo rekudzika' kubva muna Ndira 2022 kusvika Ndira 2023, ichidzika kubva pakuwedzera kwe7.5% pagore kutanga kwa2022 kusvika 6.4% gore rakatevera Ndira 2023. Yakazodzikira zvakare mwedzi mitanhatu inotevera kubva muna Ndira 2023 kusvika Chikumi 2023, kubva pa6.4% kuenda pa3%.
Kubva ipapo, kubva muna Chikumi apfuura 2023, yakakwira panhanho ye5,000 tsoka pamusoro peUS airport airport, uko yanga ichitenderera kubva ipapo.
Kubvisa hanyanisi yeiyo 'Zvinhu Zvese' aggregate chiratidzo, uye uchifunga chete 'Core' inflation — kureva kuti ‘All Items’ kubvisa simba nemitengo yechikafu—Mufananidzo wakafanana: Core inflation yanga yamirawo, kunosvika 3.9% -4% kubva Gumiguru 2023.
Kucheka 'Zvinhu Zvese' neimwe nzira, muGoods vs. Services inflation izvo zvichangoratidzwa zveJanuary CPI stats ndezvekuti kubva Gumiguru 2023 Services inflation yanga yakamira, mune ino ingangoita 5%.
Mune mamwe mazwi, kunze kwepeturu nemimwe mitengo yezvokudya, CPI haina kuderera mumwedzi minomwe yapfuura. Ndege haisati yamhara asi inoramba ichingotenderera!
Uye inogona kunge iri kupera gasi zvakare. Nhamba dzekupedzisira dzeCPI, pamwedzi kusvika pamwedzi shanduko, dzinoratidza kuti inflation inogona kunge yakatanga kukwira zvakare mwedzi wapera. Kusagadziriswa kwemwaka (kureva mutengo chaiwo shanduko), nhamba dzaNdira dzeCPI dzinoratidza mwedzi nemwedzi inokwira maitiro eCPI sezvinotevera:
Gumiguru 2023: 0.0%
Mbudzi 2023: -0.2%
Zvita 2023: -.0.1%
Ndira 2024: +0.5%
Mukati menhamba dzaNdira maive nemaitiro aityisa: Inflation yemasevhisi yakada kupetwa kaviri muna Ndira zvichienzaniswa naZvita (0.7% vs 0.4%); mitengo yezvekudya yakawedzera zvakapetwa kaviri (0.4% vs 0.2%) nemitengo yegirosari ichikwira nekukurumidza mumwedzi gumi nembiri yapfuura. Zvichakadaro mitengo yekugara yakakwira kubva pa0.4% kusvika 0.6% muna Ndira nechikamu chayo chikuru, Rent, ichikwira nekukurumidza mumwedzi mipfumbamwe. Uye mamwe masevhisi akaita sechipatara nendege, mitengo yakadzikira muna 2023, yakawedzera zvakare muna Ndira.
Masimba anonongedzera kukwira kwepeturu nesimba Kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu mumwedzi iri kuuya ari kuonekawo. Vezvenhau vebhizinesi muUS nekune dzimwe nyika vanoshuma kuti matambudziko epasi rose emafuta asina kuchena ari kuwedzera-panguva iyo kazhinji muchirimo zvicherwa zveoiri zvinovharawo kuti zvigadziriswe uye vatengi vanotanga kutyaira zvakanyanya.
The Goods vs. Services Inflation Conundrum
Kupfupisa kusvika pari zvino: kana CPI inoshuma kwemwedzi minomwe yadarika ichiratidza mitengo yeSevhisi yakanamatira pa5%, mitengo yeCore panosvika 4%, uye Zvese Zvinhu zvakanamira pa3%. Nhamba idzodzo dzinoratidza kuti mitengo yezvinhu — peturu nemimwe mitengo yechikafu — yadzika. Chirevo chaNdira CPI chinoratidza kuti mitengo yeZvinhu yanga yakapfava kana kuti isina kunaka mumwedzi gumi nembiri yapfuura.
Asi inflation yeSevhisi inoramba yakanamatira pa5% kwemwedzi ikozvino. Honzeri huru mukuenderera mberi kwekukwira kwemitengo yeMasevhisi anga ari masevhisi eRendi ayo agara aine mhosva inopfuura hafu yemitengo yese yeCPI inokwira kwemwedzi yakati wandei; Day Care services; Mitambo uye Varaidzo zviitiko mitengo; Auto Repairs; uye Auto Inishuwarenzi masevhisi ayo akakwira ne20.6% mukati megore rapfuura. Pamusoro pezvo, mitengo yebasa rechipatara yave kuwedzera patsva uye ichikwira nekukurumidza kubvira 2015.
Saka nei Zvinhu (kunyanya gasi nechikafu) inflation yakadzikira zvakanyanya mugore rapfuura nepo nhanho yemitengo yeSevhisi isati yamboita kudaro?
Pane tsananguro dzakawanda. Heano vaviri:
Fed Interest Rates Ari Kuwedzera Kusashanda
Federal Reserve mubereko wakakwira kubvira 2022 wakave nemhedzisiro pakukwira kweGoods - kureva pasimba nechikafu uye zvimwe zvinhu. Asi saka zvinogona kuva nemamwe masimba ehupfumi.
Hupfumi hweUS hwadzikira nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo. Asiwo hupfumi hwenyika hwakaderera. Ndechipi chave nechakanyanya kukanganisa kudzikisira kudiwa kwemafuta, zvigadzirwa uye nekudaro mitengo yezvinhu zvine chekuita nesimba reUS kazhinji? Kukwira kwechiyero cheUS kana kuderedza hupfumi hwenyika? Uye zvakadini nemitengo yezvokudya/girosari? Mitengo yemukaka nemazai yakakwira muna 2021-22 asi yadzika. Nekudaro, chikafu chakagadzikiswa senge zvinhu zvekubheka uye zvimwe zvinhu zvakagadziriswa senge muto nezvinwiwa hazvina. Ivo vachiri kukwira pane anopfuura 20% chiyero chegore? Musiyano ungangove uri pakuti mukaka nemazai zvinogadzirwa munharaunda uye hazvisi zvega; Zvikafu zvakagadzikiswa zviri monopolistic uye zvinotongwa nemakambani mashoma. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti kukwira kwemitengo yemakambani kuri kuitika muchikamu chezvekudya zvakagadzikiswa pamitengo yezvekudya. Vhidhiyo ichangoburwa nehurumende zvave kutaura nezve 'shrinkflation' (mutengo wakavanzika nekudzikisira zvirimo) izvo zvinopa humbowo hwekukwira kwemitengo yemakambani ezvekudya.
2021-22: Supply Driven Inflation
Dambudziko guru rekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu rakatanga muna 2021 raive rekuUS uye repasi rose 'maketani ekutengesa'. Sezvo munyori uyu akakurukura kumashure panguva iyoyo (ona yangu 'Iyo Anatomy yeInflation Counterpunch chinyorwa chaChikumi 23, 2022), chakaendesa inflation kusvika pa9.1% yepamusoro yaive yakanyanya Supply side mauto - kureva cheni dzekugovera dzakawedzerwa nekukwidzwa kwemitengo nemakambani eUS anokwirisa mitengo sezvo hupfumi hweUS hwakavhurwa muzhizha ra2021 kubva kuCovid. shutdowns. Ndiwo musoro wekuti vezvehupfumi nevezvematongerwo enyika vakanyanya kutarisisa nguva pfupi yadarika.
Kugadzirwa kwakadonhawo muna 2021-22 kudonha kusvika padanho rakaipisisa kubvira 1947, izvo zvakazokwidza mutengo wevashandi webhizinesi uyo makambani mazhinji akangopfuudza kune vatengi mumitengo yakakwira. Kufanana nemacheni ekupa uye kukwira kwemitengo, izvo zvakare yaive nyaya yekugovera.
Inflation panguva iyoyo muna 2021-22, nemamwe mazwi, yainyanya kuwanikwa-kwete kudiwa-kwaifambiswa.
Kuvharwa kweCovid kwa2020-21 kwakakatyamadza hupfumi hwakawanda hweUS, kunyanya kupa. Vashandi vakadzingwa havana kudzoka pakarepo. Mamwe mabhizinesi akaita semakambani enjanji akazviona zviri nyore uye zvine pundutso kusadzosera vashandi vavo vese kumashure asi kuti vamhanye nevashandi vane pundutso. Mamwe mabhizinesi haana kubva ipapo kana kunyatso wedzera kugadzirwa apo hupfumi hwakatanga kuvhurika muchirimo cha2021. Vakatanga vakamirira kuti vaone kana kuvhurwa kwacho kwaigona kuenderera. Asi hupfumi pahwakatanga kuvhurwa zvakanaka mukupera kwezhizha 2021 mabhizinesi mazhinji masevhisi akaedza kudzoreredza mari yakarasika nekukwidza mitengo nekukurumidza (Muenzaniso waive makambani eAirlines nemaHotera ayo ainyatso dhura vatengi nemitengo yekurekodha yekufamba muna 2021-22.
Iyo Covid inodzima yakagadziridza vashandi, zvigadzirwa uye misika yemari nenzira dzisati dzanyatsonzwisiswa nevehupfumi kana vanoita zvemitemo. Matanho ekusimudzira mari uye emari kunyanya haana kushanda zvakanaka kana nemazvo (musoro wechimwe chinyorwa). Huwandu hwakapihwa hwekukurudzira kwemari uye hwemari hauna kuburitsa huwandu hwaitarisirwa hwekugadzirisa hupfumi chaihwo.
Chinhu chinokatyamadza chemakore maviri apfuura kumuka kwehupfumi hweUS kwave kuri kuderera kwekukura kwayo. Muna 2020-21 iyo Federal Reserve yakapomba madhora mazana mashanu emadhora muUS banking system uye yakananga kune vanoisa mari kuburikidza nechirongwa chayo cheQE. Congress yakapa imwe $5 trillion mukushandiswa kwehurumende uye kuderedzwa kwemitero. Ndiyo $4 tiririyoni mune yakasanganiswa kukurudzira! Inenge yakapetwa kaviri iyo yakapihwa muna 9-2008 Izvo zvakakonzera, mumakore maviri ekutanga 10-2022 mushure mekunge hupfumi hwavhurwa muna 23 yaive chiyero chekukura muGDP mazwi aingove 2021% muna 2.1 uye isingafadzi 2022% muna 2.5..
Muchidimbu, gomo re $ 9T yemari-mari yekukurudzira yakakonzera molehill yeGDP recovery!
Yakafukidzirwa pamatambudziko ekupa ayo akabuda muna 2021 uye akawedzera muna 2022 yaive mitengo yezvinhu zvepasi rose ichikwira muna 2022-23 semhedzisiro yehondo yeUkraine neUS Russian (neChina kusvika padiki) mitemo yezvirango uye Hondo yeUkraine.
Zvese izvi zvinhu zvakakonzera kudivi rekupa rinofambiswa neinflation ye2021-22. Iwo masimba ekupa aingodzikiswa zvishoma nezvinodiwa zvinodzvinyirira marongero eFederal Reserve mushure mekutanga kukwidza mitengo.
Uye ikozvino kubva pakati-2023 Fed mwero kukwira kwakamira. Uye nazvo saka zvakare maSevhisi inflation yadzikira. Fed rate inokwira kusvika ku5.5% inoita seisina mhedzisiro paMasevhisi inflation. Saka mibairo yakakwira sei kuti iendeswe kuti ishande? Nhoroondo shoma seinotevera inogona kupa imwe pfungwa.
Volcker's 1980-82 Solution vs. Powell's 2022-23
Kunyangwe inflation yeUS yanyanya kupa divi, muna 2022 vezvematongerwo enyika vekuUS neFederal Reserve vakafunga zano rekugadzirisa inflation yedivi rekutengesa kungave kudzvinyirira kudiwa kwevatengi muhupfumi hweUS. Iyo Federal Reserve yakatanga kurwisa kudiwa kwevatengi kuderedza inflation. Chishandiso chayo chikuru chaive kukwidza mitengo yemubereko uye iyo Fed yakatanga muna 2022 kukwidza mitengo nekukurumidza mumakumi emakore. Pfungwa iyi yaive yekugadzira hurovha hwakakwana hwaizoderedza mihoro yemihoro uye nekudaro kushandisa mari yekudzikisa kudiwa uye nekufungidzira mitengo zvakare. Mune mamwe mazwi: kunyange dai vatyairi vakuru vaiva Supply side (iyo Fed isingagoni kuita chinhu pamusoro payo) chirongwa chacho chaiva chekuita kuti mhuri dzibhadhare mutengo wekuderedza inflation nekuderedza mari yemuhoro wemhuri uye kudiwa kwekushandisa. Saka iyo Fed yakasimudza mhindu kusvika pa5.5% mukati megore ra2022-2023.
Mushure mezvose, muyero mumwechete kukwira kumanikidza kudiwa zano kwakashanda pasi peReagan muna 1981-83 apo Paul Volcker aive Fed chair. 10% + yegore negore CPI inflation panguva iyoyo yakaderedzwa kuburikidza neFed rate yakakwira iyo yakarwisa chikamu cheGoods, yakasimudza hurovha, uye yakazoora mwoyo mihoro yemuhoro uye kushandiswa. Yakanga iri nzira yekudiwa yekudzikisa mutengo - yaishandiswa kugadzirisa dambudziko reSupply side inflation kumashure panguva iyoyo zvakare. Zvakadaro zvakashanda. Mitengo yakadzika, asi mushure mekunge Fed yasimudza mwero kusvika kupfuura 15%! Kuderera kwakadzika kwehupfumi muna 1982-83 kwakatevera kukwira kweFed rate muna 1980. Asi iyo yakanga iri ipapo. Hupfumi hweUS hwachinja zvakanyanya kubva ipapo. Hazvichashandi nenzira iyoyo zvakare. Chokwadi, mutemo wezvemari hautomboshanda zvachose.
Semuna 1980-82, Powell's Fed mwero wakakwira muna 2022-23 vakabudirira kudzikisira mitengo yezvinhu asi HAVANA kubudirira panguva ino kudzikisa mitengo yemasevhisi zvakanyanya, sezvinoratidzwa neCPI data yemwedzi minomwe yapfuura. Kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu kwadzika, asi mitengo yemasevhisi inoramba yakanamatira pamazinga ezhizha rapfuura 2023 ikozvino kwemwedzi uye inogona kunge ichikwira zvakare. Saka nei zvakadaro kuti makumi mana emakore gare gare mutemo wezvemari (kukwira kwemitengo) hauna kubudirira sezvazvakaita muna 1980-82 mukudzikisa mutengo zvakanyanya?
Mumusangano wake wevatori venhau waDecember 2022 zvichitevera kutanga kweFed kukwidza mitengo, Sachigaro weFed Jerome Powell akataura zano reFed muna 2023 raizove rekuenderera mberi nekukwidza mitengo. Akataura zvakananga chinangwa chake chikuru chekuunza mitengo yeSevhisi pasi, achiwedzera kuti kushayikwa kwemabasa kwaidiwa muSevhisi kuitira kudzikisa kushandiswa kweSevhisi. Ndiyo yaive yeFed's inflation strategy ye 2023. Asi iro zano-uye yakaderera Services mitengo-hazvina kuitika.
Kupokana kweFed Monetary Policy
Nepakati pekupinda muna 2023 Powell akamira kukwidza mitengo. Asi nei? Nei asina kuramba achikwidza mitengo uye akamira pakati nepakati kusvika 2023? Pane mhinduro dzakati wandei, asi sekupokana kwakamboitwa nemunyori uyu, pamwe chikonzero chikuru yaive dambudziko rakauya panguva imwe chete muUS redunhu remabhangi system muna Kurume 2023. Kukwidza mari dzemubereko zvakatonyanya kukwira kungadai kwakawedzera dambudziko rekubhanga redunhu. Saka Powell akakwidza mareti kekupedzisira muna Chivabvu-Chikumi 2023 mushure mekunge Dambudziko reRegional Bank rakaputika munaKurume 2023.
Nekuita izvi Fed yakafunga kutengesa kudzikisa masevhisi uye Core inflation zvakare muna 2023 kuitira kudzivirira kuwedzera kusagadzikana kwebhangi redunhu. Sezviri pachena Powell akaisa bheji yake pakufunga kuti yatove 5.5% chiyero chemubereko icharatidza kukwana nekufamba kwenguva kusvika pakupedzisira, kana zvishoma nezvishoma, kudzikisa masevhisi. Kusvika parizvino hazvisati zvaita. Sevhisi chikamu chekushaikwa kwemabasa uye kushandiswa kweSevhisi hakuna kudzikira. Powell arasa bheji rake. Mitengo yemasevhisi 'yakanamatira' pa5% uye Core panosvika 4% izvozvi.
Zvinoratidzwa nemamiriro ezvinhu aya ndezvekuti US uye hupfumi hwepasirese hwachinja munzira dzakakosha kubva kutanga kwema1980. IUS yakawedzera hupfumi hweSevhisi nhasi zvichienzaniswa nemakore makumi mana apfuura. Masevhisi haapindure zvakanaka pakukwidza mitengo. Muchokwadi, kana hupfumi huzhinji, hunoratidzika. Kuisa izvi mukutaura kwevezvehupfumi: Kukwira kwemitengo yemasevhisi kwave 'mubereko unelastic'.
Iko kushaikwa kwemhinduro chaiyo yehupfumi kumitengo yemubereko (kureva iyo inelasticity) inogona kunge yakakonzerwa nechikamu chehupfumi hweUS hunowedzera 'kuita mari' nhasi zvichienzaniswa na1981-83. Zvinoreva kuti Fed periodic liquidity (aka mari) majekiseni muhupfumi anodzoserwa kubva pakupinda mukudyara chaiko uye kuyerera zvakanyanya mumisika yemidziyo yemari pachinzvimbo chehupfumi chaihwo. Izvi zvinoita kuti mutemo weFed ive 'kusashanda'—kureva kuti jekiseni remari rakawanda rinodiwa kuti uwane kurudziro yakaenzana 'kurova kwebhari'.
Kukurukurirana ichokwadi zvakare: Fed rate inokwira haina mhedzisiro yekuderedza inflation uye inonotsa hupfumi chaihwo nekuti hwave huwandu hwemari. Kukwira kwemitengo hakungodzoreri mari yakawanda (mari) kubva kuhupfumi sezvavaimboita. Uye kunyangwe vakazviita hazvinei nazvo. Mabhizinesi (uye vatengi) nhasi, makumi emakore gare gare, vanokwanisa kuwana mamwe masosi emari kunze kwekukweretesa kwebhangi, muUS uye pasi rese. Kana kuti zvimwe mabhizinesi nevaisiri vemari vanocheka kudyara muhupfumi chaihwo kutanga, vasati vafunga kudzikisa kudyara kwavo mumisika yemari. Mushure mezvose, misika yemari uye purofiti haina kukura panguva yeCovid apo mikana yekudyara muhupfumi chaihwo ichidonha?
Ndima yapfuura inoratidza kudyidzana kwepasi rose kungave kuchikonzera kusashanda kweFederal Reserve chiyero chemubereko kana zvasvika pakukwira kuri kuita inflation. Pano zvemari uye kudyidzana kwepasi rose kwe21st Century capitalist economy inopindirana.
Makambani emarudzi akawanda kunyanya haana kuganhurirwa neFed chiyero chemubereko kana mazinga paanoda mari yekudyara. Vanogona kuenda chero kupi zvako munyika nekuda kwemitengo yakaderera. Kufungidzira kuti vanotonetsekana nekukwereta kumabhanga zvachose. Vemarudzi akawanda vanokwidza mari yakawanda zvikuru nekupa zvikwereti zvemakambani emabhondi avo pachavo. Uye ivo vakatakura pamusoro pekuburitswa kwemabhondi mumakore epedyo zero Fed mitengo kubva 2009-2018 uyezve muna 2020-21 iyo Fed yakapinza $5T yakawanda yemari yemahara mumabhangi uye zvakananga kune vanoisa mari kuburikidza neQE. Makambani achangoburitsa makomo echikwereti chebond pamberi peCovid chaaisatomboda ndokubva angochengeta mari padenda iri. Kana kuti vakagovanisa mari yeFed yemahara kune vanovachengeta mukutenga uye migove uye vakachengeta mari yavo. Kamwe iyo Fed payakatanga kukwidza mitengo muna 2022 iwo mareti ekuwedzera aive asina basa kumabhizinesi mazhinji makuru. Vaive vakazara nemari isina kushandiswa kubva pakuburitsa mabhondi kana stock nyowani. Mabhizinesi madiki chete ndiwo anokanganisa zvakare neFed rate kukwira, kana kuderedzwa kwemitengo yenyaya iyoyo.
Dzimwe Mhedziso
Mukupedzisa, maererano nekukwira kwemitengo, zvinorevei izvi zvose Fed chair Powell achafanira kukwidza mitengo yakakwirira kudarika 5.5% kana achida kuderedza Services uye Core inflation significantly. Zvichida kwete sepamusoro sePaul Volcker's 15% muna 1981. Asi yakakwirira kudarika ikozvino 5.5% zvechokwadi.
Nekudaro Powell haaite chero kwenguva yakareba sezvo masevhisi inflation mazinga achiramba akanamatira pamazinga aripo. Akafunga kuti anogona kurarama neiyo nhanho yeMasevhisi inflation, nepo kubheja zvimwe mitengo inochengetwa pamazinga azvino ingangoderedza inflation nekufamba kwenguva.
Powell haazoisa panjodzi yemitengo yakakwira iyo ichawedzera dambudziko rebhangi redunhu zvakare, iro nenzira iri kuramba richidzikira zvishoma nezvishoma uye iro rakatarisana nekutyisidzirwa kwekutadza kwezvivakwa zvekutengesa kuri kuuya muna 2025-26, uko mabhanga edunhu agara asina kugadzikana anoramba akafumurwa zvakanyanya. .
Haazokwidzawo mareti nekuti hupfumi hweUS hwave kuderera padanho rekuderera. Bazi rekuvaka reUS radonha pachikamu chimwe chete muzvitatu uye rinoratidzika kunge rakamira padanho iroro apo chikamu chekugadzira chave kuita kondirakiti kwemwedzi mipfumbamwe yadarika, sekureva kwePurchasing Managers 'Index (PMI). Kudzika kwakadzika muna 2024 kwaisazobatsira vezvematongerwo enyika. Uye zvisinei nezvinotaurwa nevanyori veFed, Fed marongero akaitwa mune zvematongerwo enyika mumakore esarudzo.
Saka tarisira kuti CPI uye inflation irambe iri pamazinga akada kufanana nezvavanazvo kwehafu yegore yapfuura. Kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu kungangogara kwakadzikira (zvichienderana nemitengo yemafuta isina chokwadi). Makambani anogona, acharamba achitengesa gouge. Rendi nemitengo yemba, Inishuwarenzi masevhisi, zvinhu zvakagadziriswa chikafu, sarudza masevhisi acharamba ari panhanho dzazvino kana kutokwira kumusoro. Saka saka iyo CPI ichaita, ichichinja-chinja pamwe zvishoma kutenderedza mazinga ayo aNdira mwedzi kuenda kumwedzi.
Zvisinei, sezvichatsanangurwa muChikamu 2 sequel kuchinyorwa chino, kunyange CPI yakashumwa ndeye yakaderera-balled fungidziro yezinga remutengo, nekuda kwefungidziro dzakawanda dzisina mubvunzo uye nzira dzinopinda mukufungidzira kwayo kwekukwira kwemitengo.
Saka kana ndege yehupfumi yeUS ikasarudza kudzika, kumhara kwayo kunogona kunge kuri 'kupfava'.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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