Kudonha kubva mukurwiswa kwaSeptember kwenzvimbo dzemafuta eAramco yeSaudi Arabia kuri kuramba kuchidzokororwa muMiddle East yese, kumisa ruvengo rwekare - dzimwe nguva kune hutsva - uye kudhirowazve mibatanidzwa yechinyakare. Nepo kurwisa kweTurkey kuchamhembe kweSyria kuchiri kubata misoro yenyaya, nyaya hombe inogona kunge iri yekuti vatambi vakuru vedunhu vari kufunga nezvekugadzirisa zvekare.
Mushure memakore ekukwikwidzana kunorwadza, maSaudis nemaIran vari kufunga kuti vangapedza sei ruvengo rwavo. Iyo yaimbova ine simba Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) yePersian Gulf monarchs iri kuita atomizing nekuti Saudi Arabia iri kurasikirwa nekubata kwayo. Uye kwaimbove kutonga kweWashington mudunhu kunoratidzika kunge kuri kudzikira.
Zvimwe zvezviitiko izvi ndezvenguva refu, kufanofambidzana necruise missile uye drone assault iyo yakabvisa makumi mashanu muzana ekugadzirwa kwemafuta eSaudi Arabia. Asi kuvhunduka kwakapetwa kaviri - kunyura kweTurkey muSyria uye kurwiswa kwemarozi kwaGunyana - kuri kusimudzira shanduko idzi.
Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, nguva pfupi yadarika yakakwira ndege kuenda kuIran ndokuzoenda kuSaudi Arabia kunotsvagira nzvimbo yekuzorora pakati peTehran neRiyadh uye kubvisa chero hutsinye hunogona kuitika pakati penyika mbiri idzi. "Chisingafanirwe kuitika ihondo," Khan akadaro, "nekuti izvi hazvingokanganisa dunhu rose ... izvi zvinokonzeresa urombo munyika. Mitengo yemafuta ichakwira.”
Sekureva kwaKhan, mativi ese akabvumirana kutaura, kunyangwe Hondo yeYemen iri chigumbuso. Asi kune mashanga mumhepo kumberi ikoko, zvakare. A partial stopfire zvinoita kunge zvakabata, uye kune hurukuro dzekumashure dziri kuitika pakati peHouthis neSaudis.
Kupindira kweSaudi muhondo yevagari vemuYemen kwaifanirwa kutora mwedzi mitatu, asi yakaramba ichienderera kwemakore anopfuura mana. United Arab Emirates (UAE) yaifanira kupa mauto epasi uye maSaudis simba remhepo. Asi mubatanidzwa weSaudi-UAE wafambira mberi zvishoma kurwisa Houthis yakaomeswa nehondo, iyo yakasimbiswa nekupokana kubva kuuto reYemeni.
Hondo dzemumhepo dzisina kutsigira mauto epasi dzinenge dzichikundikana, uye dzinodhura zvakanyanya. Kudonhedza pahomwe yeSaudi kwakakosha, uye hupfumi hwenyika hausi husina magumo.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ari kuyedza kuchinja hupfumi hweSaudi kubva mukunyanya kukoshesa petroleum, asi anoda mari yekunze kuti aite izvozvo uye haasi kuiwana. Hondo yeYemen-iyo, maererano neUnited Nations ndiyo njodzi yakaipisisa pasirese-uye kubatanidzwa kweMuchinda nekuponda uye kubviswa kwemutori wenhau weSaudi Jamal Khashoggi, kwakanganisa vatengesi vazhinji.
Pasina kunze kwekudyara, veSaudi vanofanirwa kushandisa mari yavo yemafuta, asi mutengo padhiramu uri pazasi izvo zvinoda Humambo kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvebhajeti, uye kudiwa kwenyika kuri kudonha. Hupfumi hweChinese huri kuderera - hondo yekutengeserana neUS yakakanganisa - uye kukura kweEurope kuri kuita husimbe. Kune mhepo yekudzikira mumhepo, uye inhau dzakaipa kune vanogadzira oiri.
Riyadh iri kurasikirwawo nevabatsiri. Iyo UAE iri kutaurirana neHouthis nekubvisa mauto avo, muchidimbu nekuti Abu Dhabi ine zvinangwa zvakasiyana muYemen kupfuura Saudi Arabia, uye nekuti mune chero guruva neIran, iyo UAE yaizove zero. Vakuru veUS vanofarira kufonera UAE "Sparta diki" nekuda kweuto rayo rakanyatsodzidziswa, asi izwi rekushanda re Abu Dhabi "diki": mauto eEmirate anogona kuunganidza mauto zviuru makumi maviri, Iran inogona kumisa varwi vanopfuura mazana masere ezviuru.
Zvinangwa zveSaudi Arabia muYemen ndezvekutsigira hurumende-yekutapwa kweMutungamiri Rabho Mansour Hadi, kudzora muganhu wayo wekumaodzanyemba uye kupikisa rutsigiro rweIran rweHouthis. Iyo UAE, kune rumwe rutivi, haina hanya neHouthis asi yakanyatso kutarisisa kutsigira anti-Hadi Southern Transitional Council, iyo iri kuyedza kugadzirazve maodzanyemba Yemen senyika yakaparadzana. Maodzanyemba nekumaodzanyemba Yemen akabatanidzwa mu1990, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekumanikidzwa kweSaudi, uye haina kumbobvira yave muchato wakasununguka.
Riyadh yakarasikirwa zvakare kutaba paGulf Cooperation Council. Oman, Kuwait, neQatar vanoenderera mberi nekutengeserana neIran zvisinei nekuedza kwakaitwa neSaudis kuparadzanisa Tehran,
IUAE neSaudi Arabia nguva pfupi yadarika yakatambira Mutungamiriri weRussia Vladimir Putin, uyo akamanikidza kuti nhengo makumi maviri nembiri dzeArab League dziite. bvuma zvakare Siria. Nhengo yeGCC yeBahrain yakatotanga zvakare hukama hwekudyidzana neDhamasiko. Putin ari kusundira a multilateral amburera yekuchengetedza yeMiddle East, iyo inosanganisira China.
"Kunyange Russia iri shamwari yakavimbika, US haisi," nyanzvi yeMiddle East Mark Katz akaudza i South Asia Zvinyorwa. Uye kunyangwe vazhinji mudunhu vasina rudo neSyria Assad, "vanoremekedza Vladimir Putin nekuomerera nemubatsiri weRussia."
Iyo Arab League - kunze kwe Kwata- akashora kupinda kweTurkey ndokudaidzira kuti mauto eAnkara abviswe. Qatar parizvino iri kuvharirwa neSaudi Arabia neUAE nekuda kwekutevera gwara rakazvimirira rekunze uye kutsigira bhiza rakasiyana muhondo yevagari veLibya. Turkey ndiyo mubatsiri mukuru weQatar.
Chibvumirano cheRussia chezvikamu gumi neTurkey paSyria chakafamba zvakanaka nenhengo dzeArab League, zvikuru nekuti maTurkey akabvuma kuremekedza Dhamasiko. changamire uye pakupedzisira kubvisa mauto ose. Ehezve, "pakupedzisira" ishoko rakachinja, kunyanya nekuti Zvinangwa zveTurkey hadzina kunyatsojeka.
Mutungamiri weTurkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan anoda kudzinga maKurds eSyria kubva kumuganhu weTurkey uye kutamisa mamiriyoni evapoteri veSyria munzvimbo ine makiromita 19 yakadzika uye 275 mamaira yakafara. MaKurds anogona kubuda, asi mauto eRussia neSyria - achizadza nzvimbo yakasiiwa neMutungamiri Trump kubviswa kwemauto eAmerica - yakavharira maTurkey kuti asabate zvinopfuura muganhu uye imwe yakadzika enclave, zvirokwazvo kwete imwe yakakura zvakakwana kuti igare mamirioni. vapoteri.
Kupinda kwaErdogan kwakakurumbira kumba-nyika inotamba zvakanaka nevanhu veTurkey uye vazhinji veTurkey havasi kufara nevapoteri veSyria-asi kwenguva yakareba sei? Hupfumi hweTurkey huri mumatambudziko uye kupindira kunoda mari yakawanda. Ankara iri kushandisa maproxies kurwa kwakawanda, asi pasina rutsigiro rwakawanda rweTurkey mapuroxi aya haafanire nemaKurds - ndoda mauto eSyria neRussia.
Izvi zvinonyanya kureva airpower, uye Turkish airpower inodzorwa nekutyisidzira kweSyria anti-ndege uye. Russian varwi, tisingatauri chokwadi chokuti maAmerica achiri kutonga nzvimbo yemhepo. MaRussia akatumira murwi wavo wekupedzisira wechishanu wechizvarwa, SU-57, uye akati wandei eMiG-29s uye SU-27s, kwete ndege dzaizoda kurwiswa nemaTurks. Vanhu vekuRussia vanewo yavo itsva mobile S-400 anti-aircraft system, uye maSyria ane ekare, asi achiri kushanda, S-300s.
Muchidimbu, zvinhu zvinogona kukanganisa chaizvo kana Turkey ikafunga kusundira ma proxies avo kana mauto avo munzvimbo dzinogarwa nemauto eRussia kana eSyria. Pane zvinyorwa zve kukakavara muSyria kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva uye vakafa pakati peKurds neSyria Army, asi kuedza kwakakomba kusundira maRussia nemaSyria kunze kunoratidzika kunge kusina mubvunzo.
Chinangwa chekudzorera vapoteri hachikwanisi kuenda chero kupi zvako. Ichadhura zvimwe $ 53 bhiriyoni kuvaka zvivakwa uye kutamisa vapoteri mamiriyoni maviri muSyria, mari iyo Turkey haina. European Union yakabuda pachena kuti haisi kuzopa nickel, uye UN haigone kupindira nekuti kupinda uku kutyora mutemo wenyika.
Kana izvo chokwadi zvanyura, Erdogan anogona kuona kuti kusarudzika kweTurkey hakuzokwane kutsigira mutambo wake weSyria kana ukashanduka kuita basa.
Middle East iri kubuda kubva mudambudziko riripo ringave rakasiyana kwazvo neraivepo zvisati zvamboitika zviya zvekupotsera nema drones zvakasimudzwa pamusoro pechessboard. Hondo yeYemen inogona kupedzisira yapera. Iran inogona, ingangoita chikamu, kubuda mukuvharika kwezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi izvo zvakaiswa neSaudi Arabia, US neIsrael pazviri. Hondo yevagari vemuSyria ichapera. Uye maAmerican, akatonga Middle East kubva 1945, anozongove mumwe wevatambi vakati wandei mudunhu, pamwe neChina, Russia, India neEuropean Union.
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