Tiri kurarama munyika ine ngozi, inouraya kunyanyisa. Rekodha-kutyora mafungu ekupisa, kusanaya kwemvura kwakanyanya, madutu akasimba, mafashama asina kumboitika. Hapana kona yepasi ichaponeswa pakutsamwa kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunokonzerwa nevanhu uye mvura yakachena yepasi iri kutonzwa kupisa kweichi chokwadi chitsva. Kupfuura hafu dzemadziva enyika uye zvikamu zviviri kubva muzvitatu dzenzizi dzayo dziri kuoma, kutyisidzira zvipenyu, minda, uye migove yemvura yokunwa. Zviwanikwa zviri kupera zvakadaro zvinogonawo kukonzera kukakavara uye kunyange, zvingangoita, hondo yose.
"Makwikwi pamusoro pezviwanikwa zvemvura zvishoma ndechimwe chezvinhu zviri kunetsa mumakumi emakore ari kuuya," akanyeverwa chidzidzo chakaburitswa mu Global Environmental Change muna 2018. "Kunyangwe nyaya dzemvura chete dzisiri iyo chete yakakonzera hondo munguva yakapfuura, kusawirirana pamusoro pekutonga kwemvura yakachena uye kushandiswa kunomiririra chimwe chezvinhu zvinonyanya kunetseka muhukama hwezvematongerwo enyika pakati ... .โ
Mamiriro acho haana kunaka. Muna 2023, zvaive Inofungidzirwa kuti vanhu vanopfuura mabhiriyoni matatu, kana kupfuura 37% yevanhu, vakatarisana nekushaya mvura kwechokwadi, dambudziko rakafanotaurwa kuti richawedzera zvakanyanya mumakumi emakore anotevera. Funga zvinokatyamadza ipapo kuti, sezvo mvura iri kupera, madhamu makuru - kupfuura 3,000 dzadzo - dzinoda kuyerera kwenzizi kuti dzishande dzave kuvakwa pamwero usina kumboitika pasi rose. Uyezve, 500 madhamu ari kuvakwa munzvimbo dzakachengetedzwa zviri pamutemo dzakaita semapaki emunyika uye nzvimbo dzinochengeterwa mhuka. Paive nechikonzero cheizvi, vakati Sangano reUnited Nations reIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makore apfuura. Zvirongwa zvakadaro, zvaidavira kuti, zvaizobatsira kurwisa kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze nekudzora kuburitswa kwecarbon dioxide uku zvichiunza magetsi kune avo vanonyanya kushaiwa.
โ[Hydropower] inoramba iri manyuko makuru esimba rinowanikwazve muchikamu chemagetsi,โ IPCC akanyora mu 2018. "Uchapupu hunoratidza kuti huwandu hwepamusoro hwekutumirwa mumakore makumi maviri anotevera hunogona kuitika, uye simba remvura rinofanira kuramba riri simba rinoyevedza rinogona kuvandudzwa mukati memamiriro ezvinhu epasi rose [gasi rinopisa] kuderedza mamiriro ezvinhu."
IPCC yakabvuma kuti kusanaya kwemvura kusingaperi kunokanganisa kuyerera kwemvura uye kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kuri kuita kuti zvinhu zviwedzere kuipa. Zvakadaro nyanzvi dzayo dzemamiriro ekunze dzakaramba dzichipokana kuti magetsi emvura anogona kuve chikamu chakakosha chekuchinja kwesimba repasirese, vachipokana kuti dhamu remagetsi richagadzira simba risingaperi. Panguva imwecheteyo, mamwe masosi anogona kudzokororwa semhepo uye simba rezuva ane mamiriro ekunze- uye mwenje wezuva.
Mutswe muDamu Logic
Zvine vavariro yakanaka sezvazvingave zvakave, zvave kujeka zvakanyanya kuti pane kutsemuka mukuongororwa kweIPCC. Kutanga, tsvakiridzo ichangoburwa inoratidza kuti madhamu anofambiswa nehydro-powered anogona kugadzira huwandu hunotyisa hwekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze-kuchinja gasi regreenhouse. Miti inoora iri pasi pemadhamu akadaro, kunyanya munzvimbo dzinodziya (sezvakaita munzvimbo zhinji dzeAfrica), inoburitsa methane yakawanda, gasi rinoparadza rinopisa, mumhepo.
โZvizhinji zvezvinomera izvi zvingadai zvakawora zvakadaro. Asi, pasina madhirigi, kuora kwacho kwaizoitika zvakanyanya mumhepo kana munzizi dzine mweya wakawanda kana madziva. Anotsanangura Fred Pearce mumutambo sununguka. โKuvapo kweokisijeni kwaizoita kuti kabhoni iri mumiti igadzire carbon dioxide. Asi madhamu akawanda, kunyanya munzvimbo dzinopisa, ane oxygen shoma. Mumamiriro ezvinhu aya, zvinomera zvinoora zvinogadzira methane panzvimbo.
apo CO2 zvakare inokuvadza zvakanyanya mamiriro ekunze, kuburitswa kwemethane kwakaipisisa munguva pfupi.
"Tinofungidzira kuti madhamu anoburitsa methane inosvika makumi maviri neshanu kubva muzana nechikamu chepamusoro kupfuura zvaifungidzirwa," anodaro Bridget Deemer weChikoro cheEnvironment paWashington State University kuVancouver, munyori anotungamira kudzidza pa greenhouse gasi rinobuda kubva mumadhamu. "Methane inogara mumhepo kweanenge makore gumi chete, nepo CO2 inogara mazana emakore akati wandei, asi mukati memakore makumi maviri, methane inobatsira zvakapetwa katatu pakudziya kwepasi pane CO20."
Uye handiro chete dambudziko rakatarisana nemadhamu muzana ramakore rechimakumi maviri nerimwe. Parizvino, mari yeChinese ndiyo inonyanya kukosha yepasirese yekuvaka kutsva kwehydropower. China yakaisa mari mukugadzira zvishoma 330 madhamu munyika makumi manomwe neina. Imwe neimwe purojekiti inoisa yayo seti yezvakatipoteredza quandaries. Asi pamusoro pezvose, kupisa kwepasi - gore rapfuura ndiko kwaipisa zvakanyanya munhoroondo yevanhu uye Ndira 2024 inopisa zvakanyanya Ndira parekodhi - iri kuita kuti mazhinji ekudyara aya ataridzike achiwedzera kukahadzika. Papasi redu rino rinogara richipisa, semuenzaniso, kusanaya kwemvura muEcuador kwakakanganisa kushanda kwedhamu reAmaluza parwizi Paute, iro rinopa. 60% yemagetsi enyika iyoyo. Paute yanga ichimhanya pa40% huwandu nguva pfupi yadarika sezvo rwizi rwayo rwuchiyerera. Saizvozvo, kumaodzanyemba kweAfrica, mvura iri padhamu reKariba Dam, riri pakati peZambia neZimbabwe, yachinja zvikuru, zvichikanganisa kukwanisa kwayo kugadzira simba risingachinji.
โMumakore achangobva kupfuura aya, kusanaya kwemvura kwakawedzerwa nokuchinja kwemamiriro okunze kwakakonzera madhamu mumakondinendi ose mashanu. kudonha pasi pemazinga anodiwa kuchengetedza kugadzirwa kwemagetsi emvura," akanyora Jacques Leslie mukati Yale E360, โuye dambudziko racho richatowedzera kuwedzera sezvo kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kunowedzera.โ
Kunyangwe muUnited States, kugona kwemagetsi emvura kuri kuwedzera kunetseka. Damu reHoover paRwizi rweColorado, semuenzaniso, rakakanganiswa nemakore ekusanaya kwemvura. Mvura iri padhamu rayo, Lake Mead, inoenderera mberi plummet, zvichimutsa kutya kuti mazuva ayo averengeka. Zvimwe chetezvo kune Dhamu reGlen Canyon, iro rakadzora Colorado, richigadzira Lake Powell. Sezvo Colorado inooma, Glen Canyon inogona zvakare kurasikirwa kugona kwayo kugadzira magetsi.
Zvichifambiswa nekuderera kwezviwanikwa zvemvura, dambudziko remagetsi epasi rose rave mhezi munzvimbo dziri kure dzekuchamhembe kweAfrica, uko kusikwa kwedhamu hombe kunogona kutungamirira kuhondo yedunhu uye yakaipisisa.
Dambudziko paNairi
Ropa roupenyu rokuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAfrica, Rwizi rwaNire, runoyerera nomunyika 11 rusati rwadirana muGungwa reMediterranean. Yakayerwa pamakiromita 6,650, rwizi rwaNire runogona kunge rwuri rwizi rwakareba paPasi. Kwezviuru zvemakore, mvura dzayo dzinomonereka, dzinofamba nomumasango ane miti mirefu nomumagwenga akaoma, dzave dzichidiridza nzvimbo dzokurima nokugovera mvura yokunwa kumamiriyoni avanhu. Kunenge 95% pavanhu 109 miriyoni veEgypt vanogara mukati memakiromita mashoma kubva muNairi. Zviri pachena kuti ndiyo inonyanya kukosha zviwanikwa muAfrica, pari zvino ndipo pakatanga gakava rezvematongerwo enyika pakati peEgypt, Ethiopia neSudan izvo zvasvitsa nyika idzi kumucheto kwehondo.
Dhamu guru riri kuvakwa padivi peBlue Nile, iro rinodira mvura murwizi, riri kukwidza chimiro chiri mudunhu iri, uko Egypt yagara iri nyika ine mukurumbira. Iyo Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD kwenguva pfupi) ichave imwe yeayo pakukura madhamu emagetsi emvura akambovakwa, akatambanudzwa anopfuura 1,700 metres uye akareba 145 metres, chiyeuchidzo chinozodiwa nevakawanda uye chinoshorwa nevamwe.
Hapana mubvunzo kuti Itiopiya inoda magetsi GERD ichagadzira. Inenge 45% yevaEthiopiya vese havana simba renguva dzose uye GERD inovimbisa kuburitsa kumusoro kwe5.15 gigawatts yemagetsi. Kuisa izvo mumaonero, gigawatt imwe chete simba 876,000 mhuri gore negore muUnited States. Kuvakwa kwedhamu, kwakatanga muna 2011, kwakapera ne90% pakupera kwaNyamavhuvhu apo rakatanga kugadzira magetsi. Pakazara, mutengo weGERD unotarisirwa kudzikira $ 5 bhiriyoni, zvichiita kuti ive yakakura kwazvo purojekiti yeEtiopia yakamboitwa uye dhamu guru munyika yeAfrica.
Hazvizongounza simba rakavimbika kunyika iyoyo chete asi zvinovimbisa kuchinja kwetsika kunogamuchirwa nevakawanda. โAmai vakasununguka murima, vasikana vanotsvaga huni dzemoto pane kuenda kuchikoro โ takamirira makore akawanda izvi โ mazana emakore,โ anoti Filsan Abdi weEthiopiya Ministry yeVakadzi, Vana, uye Vechidiki. "Patinoti Etiopia ichava chiedza chebudiriro, zvinotangira pano."
Kunyange zvazvo vaEthiopia vakawanda vangaona dhamu nenzira yakanaka, nyika dziri zasi kweEgypt neSudan (idzo pachadzo dzakapinda muhondo inoparadza yevagari vemo) hadzina kumbobvunzwa, uye vakuru vakuru vadzo vakatsamwa. Dziva rakakura kuseri kweGERD's gigantic simende wall richaramba 74 mabhiriyoni cubic metres emvura. Izvi zvinoreva kuti Etiopia ichave nekutonga kunoshamisa pamusoro pekuyerera kweNairi, ichipa vatungamiriri vayo simba pamusoro pehuwandu hwekuwana mvura vese maEgypt neSudan. Iyo Blue Nile, shure kwezvose, inopa 59% yemvura yakachena yeEgypt.
Sezvazvinoitika, mvura yakachena muEgipita yave ichikura kwenguva refu scarcer uye saka hutungamiriri hwenyika hwakatora zvakanyanya kutyisidzira kweGERD kwemakore. Muna 2012, semuenzaniso, Wikileaks yakawana maemail emukati kubva kune "global intelligence" femu Stratfor. kuzarura kuti Egypt neSudan vaitofunga kutungamira Egyptian Special Forces kuti aparadze dhamu, richiri munhanho dzekutanga kuvakwa. "[Isu] tiri kukurukura nezvekubatana kwemauto neSudan," bhuku repamusoro rekuEgypt rakataurwa kudaro. Kunyange kurwiswa kwakananga kwakadaro kusati kwaitika, Stratfor akati Egypt inogona zvakare kupa rutsigiro ku "mapoka evarwi veEthiopia" (sezvazvaive zvakaita kuma1970 nema1980s) kana diplomacy yaizosvika kumagumo.
Nehurombo, nhaurirano dzichangoburwa dzekudzikamisa ruvengo rwakatenderedza GERD dzakaenda zvakasiyana awry. Kubvumbi apfuura, vaEgipita vakashatirwa akapindura kushaikwa kwekufambira mberi kwakakosha nekuita kurovedza kwemauto kwemazuva matatu neSudan panzvimbo yemauto muGungwa Dzvuku nechinangwa chekutyisidzira vakuru veEthiopia. "Sarudzo dzese dziri patafura," akanyevera Gurukota rezvekunze reEgypt Sameh Shoukry. "[Zvese] dzimwe nzira dzichiripo uye Egypt ine kugona kwayo."
Ichiita senge isingatyisidzirwe nekutyisidzira kwakadai kwemauto, Ethiopia inoronga kupedza kuvaka dhamu iri, ichiti ichapa simba rinodiwa nevarombo vekuEthiopia uye kudzikisira kabhoni yenyika. "[GERD] inomiririra chirongwa chakasimba chehupfumi nehupfumi hweEthiopia: kutsiva mafuta ezvicherwa uye kuderedza kuburitswa kweCO2," mumiriri weEthiopia muWashington ane. akadaro.
GERD, zvisinei, inowira muchikamu chekuve dambudziko guru - uye kwete nekuda kwekuti inogona kutungamirira kuhondo yeropa munharaunda. vatova mumhirizhonga inotyisa. Kana yangozadzwa, dura rayo rakakura richavhara 1,874 square kilometers, zvichiita kuti rive rinopfuura matatu-makota saizi yeUtah's Great Salt Lake (mushure mekunge yatanga shrink).
Nehurombo, GERD haina kumbobvira yaita ongororo yezvakatipoteredza (EIA) kunyangwe ichidiwa zviri pamutemo kuita kudaro. Hapana EIA yakamboitwa nekuti hurumende yeEthiopia ine mukurumbira wehuori yaiziva kuti mhedzisiro yaisazofadza uye yakanga isingade kurega chero maroadblocks achikanganisa kuvakwa kwedhamu, chimwe chinhu chakazonyanya kujeka 20,000 zvizvarwa zvechiGumuz nezvizvarwa zveBerta zvakatanga kumanikidzwa kubva kudzimba dzavo kuti vagadzirire dhamu rinotyisa.
Kubuda pachena kunopikisa dhamu kwaratidza bhizinesi rine njodzi. Vashandi veInternational Rivers, sangano risingabatsiri rinotsigira vanhu vari mungozi nemadhamu, vakashungurudzwa uye vakagamuchirwa. kutyisidzira rufu vachipindura kushorwa kwavo. Mutori wenhau ane mukurumbira wekuEthiopia Reeyot Alemu, mushoropodzi wedhamu uye zviito zvehurumende pamusoro paro, akavharirwa kwemakore anopfuura mana pasi pemitemo yakaoma yekurwisa hugandanga.
Hondo dzeMvura dzeMagetsi
Nepo GERD yakagadzira mhirizhonga inotyisa, inewo maitiro epasirese. China, iyo yakaita basa rakakosha mukugadzirisa mapurojekiti emagetsi emagetsi pasi rose mumakore aya, yakapa $ 1.2 bhiriyoni kubatsira vaEthiopia kuvaka tambo dzekutakura kubva kudhamu kuenda kumataundi ari pedyo. Sezvo zvadaro zvakare mari yakawanda muEgypt, yakamira zvakanaka, kana chero nyika iripo, kubatsira kufambisa gakava reGERD.
Vaongorori vemauto muUnited States kupopotedzana kuti kuve nechekuita kweChina mudhamu iri chikamu chegwaro rinoda kuisa US padanho rakanyanya munhangemutange yekushandisa zvicherwa zvemuAfrica zvakawanda kubva muvhu. cobalt mapako kuCongo kusvika guru lithium inoisa muEthiopiya hinterlands. China, nyika yose"muunganidzi mukuru wechikwereti,โ zvamazvirokwazvo yakadurura mari muAfrica. Kubva muna 2021, yaive iyo mukweretesi mukuru wekondinendi, kubata 20% chechikwereti chayo chose. Kukura kwesimba reChinese pasi rese uye muAfrica - ine mapurojekiti makuru ezvivakwa mukati 35 nyika dzeAfrica - kwakakosha kuti unzwisise yazvino vhezheni yeglobe's imperial geopolitics.
Mazhinji emabhizimusi emuAfrica eChina akabatana neBeijing "Bhanhire uye Road Initiative,โ chirongwa chezana rino remakore chekutsigira zvibvumirano zvezvivakwa muEurasia yose neAfrica. Hukama hwayo hwehupfumi neAfrica hwakatanga, zvisinei, nemutungamiri weChina, Mao Zedong kusunda muma1950 nema1960 nokuda kweโAfro-Asianโ mubatanidzwa waizodenha umambo hwekuMadokero.
Makumi akawanda emakore gare gare, pfungwa yemubatanidzwa wakadai inoita chidimbu chechipiri kune zvishuwo zvehupfumi zvepasi rose zveChina, izvo, semapurojekiti mazhinji ekare emuAfrica, ane matambudziko akanyanya kune avo vari kugashira. Nyika dzichiri kusimukira dzinoda zvikuru mari, saka dzakagadzirira kugamuchira mazwi nemamiriro akaomarara kubva kuChina, kunyangwe kana vachimiririra vhezheni yazvino yezana remakore rekare rekolonialism uye neo-colonialism yakanangana nekudzora zviwanikwa zvakapfuma zvekondinendi. Izvi ndezvechokwadi panyaya yekudyara kwemagetsi emagetsi kuChina munzvimbo dzakaita seGhana's Bui Dam neCongo River Dam kuRepublic of Congo, uko zvikwereti zvemabhiriyoni emadhora zvinotsigirwa nemafuta asina kuchena eCongo uye zvirimwa zvecocoa zvekuGhana.
Muna 2020, iyo US yakazvipinza mukati meGERD feud, kutyisidzira kucheka $130 miriyoni yekubatsira muEthiopia kurwisa hugandanga. VaEtiopia vakatenda kuti ndizvo Related kune gakava redhamu, sezvavakaitawo, muna Chikumi 2023, manejimendi eBiden akaraira USAID kumisa rubatsiro rwechikafu kunyika (kupfuura $ 2 bhiriyoni), vachiti yakanga isingasviki vaEthiopia, chete reverse course mwedzi gare gare.
Makakatanwa pamusoro pedhamu guru reEthiopia anofanira kunge ari nyevero yeramangwana pamusoro pepasi rinopisa, rakaoma, uko nzizi dzinodyisa madhamu akaita seGERD dziri kuoma apo masimba makuru anoenderera mberi achirwira chinzvimbo, achitarisira kudzora zvakasara zvepasi rose. zviwanikwa. Hydropower haizobatsire kugadzirisa dambudziko remamiriro ekunze, asi mapurojekiti matsva edhamu anogona kutungamira kuhondo pamusoro pechinhu chimwe chete chakakosha pakurarama kwedu - kuwana mvura yakachena, yakachena.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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