Kutarisa kwekutanga kuA kunopa pfungwa yekuti hupfumi hweUS huri kugadzirisa uye hunogona kutanga kupora munguva pfupi. Asi kunyatsoongorora kunoratidza kuti mishumo inoratidza kuti hupfumi huchiri mu "stop-go" nzira yakanaka uye musika wemabasa unokwanisa kuburitsa mihoro yakaderera, kazhinji mabasa ebasa asingachinji. Zvakare, mafambiro ari mukati memishumo anoratidza kuti kunyangwe mhedzisiro yatove yekupisa mumishumo inogona kudzikira, zvakare, mukota nemwedzi iri kuuya. Heino chikonzero.
US 3rd Quarter GDP Report
Iyo yepamutemo, yekutanga GDP nhamba dzeChikunguru-Gunyana inoratidza 2.8% US kukura mwero. Chokwadi chinogara chiri mumashoko, zvisinei. Uye kunyatsotarisisa kuumbwa uye mafambiro mukati meGDP hapana padyo padyo nerosy.
Chekutanga uye chinonyanya kukosha, hapana isingasviki 0.71 yeiyo 2.8% imhaka yeinonzi inventory accumulation nemabhizinesi asiri epurazi, ayo akasimuka zvakapetwa kaviri nekukurumidza se0.30 mukota yechipiri 2013 ichitevera chete 0.06% mukota yekutanga. Mune mamwe mazwi, mabhizinesi anga achimhanyisa kuunganidza kwavo zvinhu vachitarisira kukwira kunotevera kwekushandisa kwevatengi mudzimba muUnited States Zvisinei, sezvaratidzwa pazasi, mari iyi iri kudzikira nekukurumidza- isiri kukwira-uye pamwe nemativi akati wandei.
Yakanga isiri nguva yekutanga mumakore mashoma apfuura kuti mabhizinesi akafungidzira nhema kubviswa kwemari yevatengi uye kukwidziridzwa nguva isati yakwana, kungozobvumirana zvakanyanya kana kushandisa kwacho kusina kuitika.
Mukutanga kwa2012 mamiriro akafanana akaitika. Kuunganidza kwebhizinesi rekutengesa kwakawedzera, kuwedzera zvakanyanya kuGDP, ndokudonha. Mushure mekuwana mukushandisa kwekushandisa kunopa 0.91 kuGDP mu3rd kota 2012, gore rakapera, mari imwechete yekuongorora yakaputsika muchikamu chekupedzisira che2012, kubvisa yakazara -2.09 kubva kuGDP. Chikamu chechina 2012 US GDP yakadonha kusvika pakungowedzera 0.1%. Mushure mezvo, mabhizinesi akatanga zvakare ichi chitubu chapfuura mukuvaka zvinyorwa mukutarisira, zvakare, kuwedzera kwekushandisa kwevatengi kuitike ichi chazvino 4.th quarter 2013-zve zvakare 'kuvhiya' kusingaonekwe kuchaitika.
Rimwe dambudziko neazvino 2.8% GDP 3rd kota 2013 nhamba ndeyokuti inoratidza kutsanangurwa kukuru kwezvinoumba GDP iyo yakasumwa muna Chikunguru apfuura 2013 ne Bureau of Economic Analysis, iyo US agency inoona nezveGDP mishumo. Mukuchinja uku uye kutsanangudza, iyo BEA yakawedzera kekutanga bhizinesi Kutsvagisa & Development mutengo kune bhizinesi rekudyara mupiro kuGDP. Mune mamwe mazwi, 'mitengo' kwete 'output', sezvaimbove zvakadaro, ikozvino inopa kuGDP. Izvi zvaive pachena imwe nzira yekusimudza zvisirizvo izvo zvave kuderera muUS bhizinesi rekudyara muUS kwemakore gumi apfuura. Kushandisa kutsanangurwa patsva, iyi GDP redefinition yakawedzera isingasviki $550 bhiriyoni kusvika 2012 GDP gore rapfuura. Uye kwekota ichangoburwa, yakawedzera zvimwe kuUS GDP's 2.8%. R&D mupiro kuUS GDP parizvino iri kuita inodarika mabhiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi masere emadhora pagore. Izvo 'kutsanangura patsva uye mutengo' unoenzanisa nefungidziro ye280 bhiriyoni yemadhora ese mupiro wesoftware kuUS GDP gore rino; uye kupfuura mupiro wekudyara wemidziyo yese yekufambisa kana zvese zvemaindasitiri kuUS GDP gore rino. Haisi mari isingakoshi, nemamwe mazwi. Asi iri 'kuwedzera' zvisirizvo kune 292% US GDP nhamba dzichangoburwa.
Bvisa yakawandisa .71 mupiro wezvigadzirwa izvo zvinonyatso bvumiranwa chikamu chechina chino, uye kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kuGDP kubva kuR&D 'mitengo', iyo chaiyo yenguva refu muGDP mu3.rd kota inenge 1.8% -kwete 2.8%. Ndiyo yenguva yakareba avhareji yeUS GDP kukura gore negore kwemakore maviri apfuura. Nekumwe kutaura, hupfumi huri kukura nekukurumidza sezvahwaive hwamboita, mwero ungangoita hafu yezvaunofanirwa kunge uri panguva ino makore anoda kusvika mashanu mushure mekupera kwekuderera kwehupfumi muna 2009.
Asi iyo 3rd Quarter GDP nhamba dzinozivikanwa pamwe nemamwe maitiro asina simba mukati mehuwandu huwandu. Chekutanga, zvinoita sekunge kushandisa mari kumasevhisi kwava kuda kumira. Mushure mekupa 0.69 uye 0.53 kumitengo yeGDP muchikamu chekutanga nechechipiri che2013, zvakateerana, kushandiswa kwesevhisi kwakadonha kusvika 0.05% chete mu3.rd quarter. Zvimwe zviratidzo zvekushandisa zvisina chokwadi kwevatengi kuenda kumberi zvava kutanga kuonekawo. Kuvimba kwevatengi kwadzikira. Chikamu chikuru chekushandiswa kwevatengi, kutengesa kwezvitoro, kwakaderera ne0.1% munaGunyana, zvichitevera imwe yemwaka yakaipisisa yekutenga 'kudzokera kuchikoro' iyo "yakapera parumananzombe, zvichikonzera kushushikana nezvezororo", maererano neWall St. Journal. . Kudimburwa kuri pedyo kwemabhiriyoni emadhora muzvitambi zvechikafu zvakangobvumidzwa neCongress zvichawedzera kunetsa kwekushandisa kwevatengi zvakakosha munguva pfupi iri kutevera, sezvazvichaita 6-mazuva mapfupi ekutenga zororo regore rino. Zvose zvekutengesa nevatengi zvinoramba zvichidzika kusvika ku1% kana zvishoma, zvakare chiratidzo chekutengesa kwakapfava uye kudiwa nevatengi. Muchidimbu, hazvigoneke kuti kushandiswa kwevatengi kuchawedzera zvakanyanya chikamu ichi chechina, zvichikonzera kudzikiswa kwakanyanya kwekushandisa kwebhizinesi rekushandisa kwakanyorwa pamusoro.
Kuwedzera kune izvi kuchave kuenderera mberi nekudzikira kwemari yehurumende padanho remubatanidzwa, sezvo kuderedzwa kwemari kwakateedzana kuchitora 'kuruma' kwakadzama kubva muhupfumi hweUS. Zvose Kudzivirira uye Kusadzivirira kushandiswa kwave kuchideredza GDP yega yega kubva pakutanga kwe 2013. Izvi hazvizongoenderera mberi, asi zvino zvichakurumidza kukurumidza mugore re 2013-14.
Pakupedzisira, padivi rekugadzira nekuvaka rehupfumi, iro rinomiririra 20% yeGDP yakazara, kukura kuchangobva kuitika mukuvaka dzimba dzekugara kungangoderera. Iyo ichangoburwa yeUS 'kudzoreredza dzimba' ikozvino yapera, nekukwira kwemitengo yemubereko nemitengo. Vagadziri vekumba vekuUS vari kutanga kuziva izvi uye vava kuderedza kuburitsa kwavo, uye nekudaro mupiro weramangwana kuGDP kubva muchikamu ichi.
Mupiro wekugadzira uye kutumira kunze kwenyika kuUS GDP kukura kwenguva yakareba zvakare iri kupera. Muchikamu che3rd kota, mambure ekutengeswa kunze kwenyika akawedzerwa kuGDP kunyangwe ichidzikira kunze kwenyika nekuti kunze kwenyika kwakadzikira nekukurumidza kupfuura kunze kwenyika. Chii chaive mukana wekutengesa kunze kweUS kwenguva pfupi muna 2013 uri kudzikira, sezvo hupfumi hweEurozone hunotora matanho kudzikisa huwandu hwayo hwekutsinhana uye nekudaro kuwedzera kwavo kutengesa kunze kwenyika uye sezvo China ichikurumidza kudzokera kune 'inotungamirwa kunze' GDP mumwedzi ichangopfuura. mushure mekuedza mvura, uye nekudzokera shure, kubva pakuchinja kuenda kune imwe yemukati inoshandiswa kukura. Kuchinja kuri kuita kweUS federal reserve bank kuenda ku'taper' yemari mutemo mumwedzi iri kuuya kunozokonzerawo mubereko wepamusoro weUS (kuwedzera kudzikira kwedzimba nekutengesa motokari) uye dhora riri kukwira (richiwedzera kudzikira kutengesa kunze kwenyika).
Iyo ichangoburwa 2.8% US GDP yekota yechitatu saka 'yenhema yakanaka' maererano nekupi hupfumi hweUS, uye kukura kwehupfumi, hungangove hunouya.th kota uye kwenguva refu.
US October Jobs Report
Mushumo weMabasa wemwedzi wapfuura chiratidzo cheUS chetatu cheGDP. Kuwedzera kwakashumwa kwe204,000 mabasa muna Gumiguru pakutanga kutarisa kunoratidzika sebudiriro yakanaka. Kanenge nhamba iyoyo inodiwa kutanga kudzikisa mwero werovha. Nekudaro, iyo mwero yakakwira chaizvo mwedzi wapfuura. Chikonzero ndechekuti 700,000 vashandi vakawanda vakasiya vashandi. Nhamba huru iyo inosiya vashandi chiratidzo chakasimba chekuneta kwakanyanya mumisika yevashandi yeUS, kwete simba. Zvinoreva kuti mazana ezviuru zvevamwe mumwedzi mumwe chete vakarega kuwana basa nokuti havagoni.
Maumbirwo emaricho ari kukanganisawo. 44,000 mitsva mitsva muchikamu chekutengesa. 53,000 mukutandara uye kugamuchira vaeni. Uye 52,000 mumabhizinesi masevhisi. Iwo maviri ekutanga anowanzo akawandisa chikamu chebasa, sechikamu chakanaka chechitatu zvakare. Pasina mubvunzo ane hanya neasina simba Nyamavhuvhu-Gunyana retail retail mibairo, retail yatanga kuhaya chikamu chenguva kunyangwe kare kupfuura mumakore apfuura. Kutandara uye kugamuchira vaeni (maresitorendi, mahotera, nezvimwewo) zvakaenderera mberi nekuhaya, zvakare kazhinji chikamu chenguva. Kupinzwa basa kwechikamu chenguva, kana kuti 'zvichienderana', chiitiko chikuru chegore rapfuura-apo muhafu yekutanga ya2013 vanopfuura 600,000 ve900,000 vachangopinzwa basa vaive 'zvichienderana' (nguva pfupi uye mabasa enguva pfupi). Izvi zvinoreva basa rakaderera uye rebasa, pasina mabhenefiti semutemo. Izvi zvinoreva zvakare kunonoka kusvika kumire kukura kwemari kubva mukugadzirwa kwemabasa-yakanyanya kukosha sosi yekukura kwemari inoraswa inodiwa pakudyara kwevatengi.
Kunyange hazvo kuwedzerwa kwemihoro kwegore rapfuura kuchinzi 1.8%, zvakakosha kuziva kuti chiyero ichi ndechevashandi venguva yakazara chete. Izvo hazviratidzi mihoro yakaderera yakagamuchirwa nevashandi venguva pfupi, ayo anga ari mazhinji emabasa akagadzirwa mugore rapfuura. Kana yagadziriswa, mibairo inomira zvakanyanya kana kudonha pakugadzira nevashandi vevatariri vese, yakazara uye chikamu chenguva uye temp. Hazvishamisi, naizvozvo, kuti mhuri yepakati (aka kushanda kirasi) mari inoraswa inoramba ichidonha gore rino, sezvavakaita mumakore mana apfuura akateedzana. Icho hachisi hwaro hwekuwedzera kwekushandisa mune ramangwana. Parizvino, kushandiswa kwekushandisa kwakakwira zvakanyanya nekuda kwekushandiswa kuri kukura kwevatengi kiredhiti-makadhi, zvikwereti zvevadzidzi, uye zvikwereti zvemotokari uye zvemortgage refinancing. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kushandiswa kwekadhi rechikwereti kwakaderera, zvisinei. Kushandisa kwevatengi kwakawedzerwawo nedzimba dzakapfuma kwazvo gumi muzana, dzinoshandisa zvakanyanya mukuita kwezvitoro nemabhondi misika yanga ichikwira kurekodha mazinga. Masheya nemakadhi echikwereti haasi hwaro hwekudzoreredza mari yemumba; mabasa uye kukura kwemari chaiko ndiko kwakakosha asi hazviratidzike zvichabatsira zvakanyanya mumwedzi iri kuuya.
Chekupedzisira, kukura kwemabasa - uye kunyanya mukutengesa uye kugamuchira vaenzi zvese zvinoenderana nekushandiswa kwezororo - zvinogona 'kunyangarika' nekukurumidza kubva muhupfumi, uye zvinogona kuita izvi muna Zvita kana kushandiswa kwevatengi kukauya pasi pezvinotarisirwa. Zvichakadaro, hurumende yemubatanidzwa inoramba ichidzikisira mashandisirwo emari nekurasira mabasa, uye inogona kutozviita nekukurumidza kutanga kwegore rinouya kana iyo 'sequester' mari yekuderedzwa ikasadzoserwa uye Congress inotora yakatonyanya kuruma kubva mukuchengetedzeka kwevanhu uye kushandisa medicare. 2014.
Kupfupisa, iyo 2.8% GDP ye3rd kota, uye Gumiguru 2013 basa reshumo, hapana chekunakidzwa nacho. Vanomiririra kugadziridzwa kwechinguva kune imwe nzira yakamira pakuita zvakanaka kwehupfumi hweUS uye rekodhi yekugadzira mabasa isinganyanyi kutora vatsva muvashandi uye vachizviita pamutengo wakaderera.
Jack Rasmus ndiye munyori webhuku ra2012, 'Obama's Economy: Recovery for the Vashoma', Pluto Press, uye mutambi wevhiki nevhiki redhiyo show, 'Alternative Visions' paProgressive Radio Network. Webhusaiti yake iri www.kyklosproductions.com, blog yake jackrasmus.com, uye twitter mubato wake, @drjackrasmus.
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