Iwo maviri mapapiro makuru evazvino vezvehupfumi vemazuva ano - 'Retro Classicalists' uye 'Hybrid Keynesians' - vanokundikana munzira dzakakosha kunzwisisa hunhu hwedambudziko rehupfumi riri kuramba richikanganisa US nehupfumi hwenyika. Hapana bapiro rakave rakabudirira kufanotaura kudzika uye kukurumidza kuputika kwakatanga muna 2007; vachitsanangura kuti sei majekiseni makuru, emabhiriyoni emadhora ekubhanga kubva muna 2007 akatadza kuunza kusimbaradza kwehupfumi; kana kunzwisisa kuti sei hupfumi hwazvino hweUS nepasirese huri nhasi, muna 2012, huri kutsvedza kuenda kune rimwe dambudziko rebhanga repasi rose uye kukonzeresa kuderera kwehupfumi.
Pane zvikonzero zvakasiyana-siyana zvekutadza kukuru uku. Asi rondedzero pfupi yaizosanganisira kusakwanisa kunzwisisa mamiriro ekudyara muzana remakore rechi21, kunyanya hukama huri pakati pekufungidzira mafomu ekutsvaga mari vs. real asset investment; hukama hunoshanduka pakati pepakati pebhangi mari yekupa uye mukati mebhangi mafomu ekugadzira kiredhiti; uye hukama hwakakomba pakati pemhando dzechikwereti nemari, izvo munyori uyu akapfupikisa kumwe kunhu nekugadzira ongororo itsva yakavakirwa pamashoko akadai se'systemic fragility'.
Fragility sepfungwa yekuongorora inotorwa kubva kuMinskyan pfungwa yekushata kwemari, uko fragility ibasa remazinga echikwereti, mazwi ekubhadhara chikwereti, uye kubuda kwemari. Pfungwa iyi inovandudzwa zvakare, yakawedzerwa, uye inowedzerwa kuti ibatanidze kusasimba kwekushandisa kwemhuri uye kusasimba kweruzhinji. Hukama hwehuwandu huripo pakati pezvimiro zvitatu zvehutete izvo pamwechete zvinoumba 'systemic fragility'. Causal kupindirana pakati pemhando nhatu dzehutete kuchinja mukati mekufamba kwebhizinesi. Pakutenderera kwepamusoro, apo bhiza rezvemari rinoitika mune imwechete kana kupfuura misika yemitengo yeasset, systemic fragility zvakare inokwira. Sezvo mutengo weasset bhabhu (s) crack, systemic fragility inozoita imwe kukurumidza kudzikira uye inowirirana 'fracturing'. Kuwedzera kudzikira kwekusasimba kunokonzeresa kudzikira kwakanyanya kwekushandisa mari mubhizinesi uye mashandisirwo emumba izvo zvingadai zvakaitika mukuderera 'kwenguva dzose' kunokonzerwa nekukatyamadzwa kwekunze. Nekudaro, kukanganisa kwemari kunokonzeresa zvisungo hazvina kujairika uye hazvikonzerwi nekuvhunduka kwekunze. Iwo 'epic' kudzikira, kunoratidzwa nekudzikira kwehurongwa husina kusimba, kukwira kwemitengo yeasset nekupunzika, uye kuderera kwakanyanya kwehupfumi kupfuura zvinoitika mukuderera kwe "zvakajairika". Epic recessions ndeye endogenous contractions, inotungamirwa nezviitiko zvekusagadzikana kwemari. Epic recessions zvakare inosiyaniswa kubva kune inonzi 'Great Recessions', izwi rine mukurumbira rinoshandiswa nevanoongorora hupfumi hwenyika iro harina ongororo asi rinongoratidza kuti kudzikira kwacho 'kwaipisa kupfuura' kuderera (kwenguva dzose) asi 'kwete kushata se'. fide depression. Ongororo yerudzi urwu netsumo inorambwa.
Mu epic recession analysis, 'systemic fragility' ndiyo mamiriro anotsanangura kuti sei uye nei kusagadzikana kwemari (asset price bubbles) zviitiko zvichikonzera kukanganiswa kwehupfumi chaihwo hwakadzika, nekukurumidza, kuchinjika uye zvichikonzera kuramba kune yechinyakare central bank mari. zviito zvemitemo uye mhinduro dzemitemo yehurumende yezvemari. System fragility inotsanangura kuti sei mhinduro dzechinyakare idzi dziri kuwedzera kusimba maererano nekugadzira kudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi kubva kune 'epic' contraction, uye panguva imwe chete ichiwedzera kunyungudika maererano nekudenha kudzoka uye kunyange kunyura kaviri kudzoreredzwa kana macontraction policy anodzoserwa mukudzoreredza. phase.
Mhinduro dzemitemo yemari, kana yakakura zvakakwana, inogona kuguma nekugadzikana kwekanguva kwebhanga asi haigoni kuunza kugadzirisa kwehupfumi hwehupfumi hwose. Ivo zvakare vane mhedzisiro yakaipa yekugadzira kumwe kuderera kweiyo systemic fragility pamusoro penguva yakareba kana ikaenderera. Zvimwechetezvo, mhinduro dzetsika dzemari dzechinyakare dzinotadza kugadzirisa matambudziko makuru ekushaikwa kwekushandisa kwemba. Ose ari maviri echinyakare (kureva upfumi hwenyika) mutemo wemari nezvemari zvinokonzeresa kushata kwekushaikwa kwegwaro reruzhinji, izvo zvinozopedzisira zvadzosa kushata kwemari nekushandisa nekufamba kwenguva.
Iyo nzira iyo iyo fragility inoendesa kune imwe hupfumi hwehupfumi inowanikwa muhukama pakati pechikwereti, deflation, uye default mumhando dzakasiyana. Chikwereti chinotsanangurwa semazinga echikwereti, chiyero chekuchinja kwechikwereti, pamwe nematemu ekubhadhara chikwereti. Deflation inoonekwa mukati meatatu-dimension mutengo system: mitengo yeasset, mitengo yezvigadzirwa, uye mitengo yezvinhu. Kudzikira kwemutengo weasset muchikamu che-post-bubble contraction chikamu chinotyaira mutengo wechigadzirwa, izvo zvinozoita kuti muhoro udzike. Iwo matatu maitiro e deflation anodzokera kune mumwe nemumwe, uye zvakare pachikwereti chaicho semhedzisiro. Deflation inokonzeresa kusagadzika, iyo inozodzosera zvakare kune zvese chikwereti uye deflation. Pamwe chete iyi kiredhiti-deflation-default mechanism inoendesa 'systemic fragility' kune akasiyana ehupfumi zviratidzo, ayo NBER economists anotsanangura mamiriro ekuderera kwehupfumi.
Kusiyana nehupfumi hwemazuva ose, saka, hapana chinhu chakadai sehurongwa hwemutengo mumwe chete unopindura zvinotarisirwa kupa uye kudiwa kugonesa kudzokera kumamiriro ekuenzanisa. Kune matatu akaparadzana masisitimu emitengo โ asset, product, and wage โ ine mitengo yeasset inoshanda sesimba rinobva rapamisa uye kwete chinhu chinodzoreredza kusagadzikana kuenzana.
Pakati pezvinhu zvakakosha zvinofambisa hupfumi hwenyika kuputika kwemari yepasirese, kusingafambire chete nemakumi emakore kwenguva refu kusikwa kusingakanganiswe kwekugadzira mari nevepakati mabhanga 'international reserve currencies, asi nekuparadzaniswa kuri kukura kwekugadzira kiredhiti nemabhangi (uye mumvuri webhangi. ) system kubva kumabhanga epakati kuitira kupa chikafu chiri kuwedzera 'kufungidzira kwekudyara shanduko' kuri kuitika kubva kuma1960s. Masangano matsva emari epasi rose anogadzirwa kuti agadzirise iyo liquidity, misika mitsva yemvura inogadzirwa kuti ibvumidze kubereka kwayo, uye zvishandiso zvemari zvitsva zvinounzwa kuti zvigone kutenderera kwayo. Pamwe chete vanoumba 'global money parade'. Mari nemari yechikwereti zvinozochinja kuita mafomu ane pundutso emari ekudyara, zvichikonzera mutsauko unowedzera uye kusaenzana pakati pekufungidzira kwekudyara kwemari nekudyara kwemari chaiyo mukati menguva yebhizinesi. Kuwedzera kwechikwereti kunobva pakuwedzera pane isiri-mari kiredhiti chinhu chakakosha chekuchinja kwekufungidzira, izvo zvinoguma nekukura kwakashata hukama pakati pechikwereti nemari inowanikwa (fragility) mukati mehurongwa mumhando dzese, sezvatsanangurwa pamusoro apa.
CHERECHEDZA: Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo rwezvinhu zvikuru zveongororo iyi ona mabhuku emunyori azvino, โEpic Recession: Prelude kune Global Depressionโ, Chivabvu 2010, uye โObama's Economy: Kudzoreredza kune Vashomaโ, Kubvumbi 2012, uye inotevera yechitatu inotevera, โKuchinja kune Global Depressionโ. (Kuti uwane ongororo yakaturikirwa muzvikamu zveupfumi zveMarxist ona chirevo chiri kuuya kuMonthly Review).