NeChishanu, Ndira 27, 2012 yekutanga kushuma kwepamusoro kwekota yechina 2011 GDP statistics yakaburitswa. Yakaratidza 'yekutanga' fungidziro yekukura kweGDP ye2.8%. Izvi zvinotevera chikamu chechitatu cheGDP nhamba ye1.3%, uye hafu yekutanga 2011 ye0.8 chete%. Pakutanga kuona zvinoita sekunge kukura kwehupfumi kuri kuwedzera, zvichitsigira zvirevo zvepoliticos uye pundits kuti kupora kuri munzira (zvekare). Asi kunyatsotarisisa kunoratidza hupfumi hweUS huchiri kunyura mukudzikama, zvishoma kana pasina mamiriro ekukura.
Yakajairika nhoroondo yekukura kwehupfumi hweUS ingangoita 2.5%. Asi iyo iavhareji yenguva refu pre-2007. Nguva refu iyoyo 2.5% avhareji iri pasi pezvinowanzoita kuti munhu agadzirise kubva mukuderera kwehupfumi padanho redu razvino makore maviri mushure megore ra2009. Padanho redu razvino mukuderera kwehupfumi hwakapfuura, mwero wekukura kweGDP 'kazhinji' 4% kusvika 5%. Kwegore rose rekupedzisira ra2011, GDP chaiyo yakakwira chete 1.7%. Izvo zviri nyore zvisingasviki hafu yezvakajairwa panguva ino yekuderera kwehupfumi.
Asi kunyangwe iyo 1.7% avhareji kune ese e2011 inotora iyo yepamutemo 2.8% kota yekupedzisira yaive 2.8%. Zvakanga zvisiri. Chikamu chekupedzisira che2.8% chaive chakaenzana nechiyero che1.0% chairatidza mwedzi mipfumbamwe yekutanga yegore rapfuura, 2011. Hezvino zvikonzero zviviri nei:
Kutanga, chikamu chechina 2.8% nhamba inogona kudzokororwa ichidzika kusvika pa2.7 kana kunyange 2.6% mudzokororo mbiri dzinotevera dzinotevera kutaurwa kwe 'advance' yekutanga fungidziro yeGDP yakashumwa muna Ndira 27. Asi ngatiregei kunyange kuverenga izvozvo. kuderedza zvakadaro. Ngatitangei kubva kune yakashumwa 2.8%.
Dambudziko rekutanga nekota yechina fungidziro ye2.8% nderekuti 1.9% yeiyo yakazara yakakonzerwa nekuvakwa kwebhizinesi rekutanga mukota yechina (zvinoreva kuti haizopedzi kupinda muna 2012). Muchikamu chechitatu chakapfuura 2011, kuvaka kwezvivakwa nebhizinesi kwakadonha kusvika pazero. Iyo 1.9% saka inoratidza kudzoreredzwa kweiyo hesiti yekuvaka iyo isina kuitika mukota yechitatu 2011 asi yakamiswa kusvika muchikamu chechina. Saka iyo 1.9% yechina kota 2011 hesitori yekuvaka yaive ingangoita hafu iyo, kana chete kutenderedza 1%. Izvi zvinoreva kuti 1% inofanira kuderedzwa kubva pakukura kwe2.8% yeGDP mukota yechina. Uye izvo zvinoreva kuti GDP yakanyatsokura chete ne1.8% mukota yechina-kwete ne2.8%.
Apa ndipo panouya dambudziko rechipiri. Iyo 2.8% ndiyo inonzi 'chaiyo' GDP. Ndiko kuti, GDP iyo inogadziriswa nokuda kwekukwira kwemitengo. Iyo chaiyo mutengo index iyo inoshandiswa kugadzirisa inflation yeGDP inonzi 'GDP deflator'. Kana iyo deflator inoshuma yakaderera zvakanyanya inflation rate, iyo chaiyo GDP kukura kwakakwira. Iyo GDP deflator yakataura kuti inflation mukota yechina ye2011 yaingova 0.4%. Pane anotenda izvozvo here? Mwero wechokwadi wekukwira kwemitengo wekota yechina unofanirwa kunge wakaita zvishoma ne1%. Ndiyo 0.6% yakakwirira kudarika 0.4% iyo yakataurirwa zviri pamutemo neGDP deflator. Iyo 0.6% yepamusoro inofanirwa kubviswa kubva kune yedu yakagadziridzwa 1.8% GDP kukura muchikamu chechina. Iyo chaiyo 'GDP' chaiyo inofanirwa kuve yakatenderedza 1.2% -kureva, ingangoita 1% mwero wekukura kweGDP kwakaitika mukati mese gore rapfuura.
Muchidimbu, hupfumi hweUS hwakaramba hwakamira mumamiriro ayo ekukura, kwete-kusvika-pasi muchikamu chechina chairatidza hupfumi hweUS mukati megore rose ra2011.
Kune huwandu hwemamwe matambudziko nehuwandu hwehurumende hwekota yechina zvakare. Imwe nzvimbo ine dambudziko kushuma nezvemabasa. Zvakakosha kuziva kuti kukura kwemabasa 200,000 kwakashumwa nebazi revashandi kwakanga kusiri kwechokwadi, nhamba chaiyo yemabasa chaiwo akagadzirwa. The 200,000 inhamba; ndiko kuti, kushandiswa kweiyo chaiyo mbishi, yechokwadi data data iyo inozogadziridzwa yemwaka yekufungidzira nedhipatimendi revashandi, fungidziro yekugadzira bhizinesi idzva, uye mamwe maitirwo pa data. Aya magadzirirwo anowanzo kuwedzera huwandu hwebasa chaihwo mukati megore rekupedzisira mwaka wezororo wakakwira kupfuura iwo chaiwo. Bazi revashandi mwaka nemwe gadziriso dzaive dzakanyatsojeka gore ra2007 risati rasvika, asi pari zvino zvanyanya kushomeka mukuderera kwehupfumi uye nekumira kwakamira izvo zvinoita kuti kuderera kwehupfumi kuve kwakasiyana.
Semuenzaniso mumwechete maererano nemabasa: kugadziridzwa kwemwaka waZvita 2011 kwakashuma 42,000 ehaye 'enhume nenhume'. Ava ndivo vashandi vakahaiwa neUPS, Fedex, nezvimwewo kuti vagadzirise kufambiswa kwenguva pfupi mukutumira tsamba. Ava ndivo vashandi venguva pfupi vanozopedzisira vamiswa basa mushure mezororo. Asi 42,000 yakashumwa vaive 86,000 vatumwa nevatumwa, vazhinji vacho vachamiswa basa munguva pfupi iri kutevera muna 2012. Rimwe dambudziko rakabatana ndere 'kugadziriswa kwemwaka' kwevashandi vanobhadharwa mukutengesa, kumwe kuvhiya kwenguva pfupi mumwaka wezororo. Bazi revashandi gross rakashuma nhamba idzodzo zvakare. Vashandi ivavo zvakare vachadzingwa muhuwandu hukuru hunouya chikamu chekutanga cha2012.
Kumwe kutarisa kwakadzama pane zvakaitika chaizvo pakutengesa kwekutengesa munaNovember-December iri kuratidzawo. Pasinei neshungu dzakatenderedza 'rekodhi' nguva yezororo, chokwadi chiri kubuda muna Ndira chinoratidza kuti kutengesa kwezvitoro, gore negore, kwakakwira chete 0.1% muna Zvita, uye mazhinji acho nekuda kwekutengesa mota. Minus auto sales, retail sales yakaderera muna December 2011 kana ichienzaniswa negore rakapfuura, yekutanga kudonha kwakadaro kubva muna May 2010. Uye kuti pasinei nekuderedzwa kwemitengo nekutengesa makambani ekutengesa. Kunyangwe kuita kwakashata kwekutengesa kwekutengesa kwakafambiswa nekukwira kwekushandiswa kwemakadhi echikwereti zvakare nevatengi, kana nekunyura kwavo mukuchengetedza mari yezororo. Iyo yekupedzisira haina kushamisa, sezvo mihoro nemihoro yakasimuka chete 1.8% (uye yakawanda yeiyo pakupera kwepamusoro) nepo mitengo yakakwira zvakapetwa kaviri pa3.5%. Mune mamwe mazwi, mihoro chaiyo nemari yakaramba ichidonha, sezvavakaita kubvira 2009. Mumakore gumi apfuura mari yemhuri yakaderera yave inenge 10%.
Hazvishamisi kuti kutengesa kwezororo kwakashata zvakanyanya, zvichipiwa kuenderera mberi kwekuderera kwemuhoro chaiwo uye mari yemumba ye'pasi pe90%'.
Kupfupisa, chikamu chechina GDP yaive yakaderera pane yakataurwa. Chikamu chekutanga cha2012 chichava chakati siyanei pane cha2011-uye zvingatonyanya kuipa kana Eurozone ingangosangana nedambudziko rakakura rekubhanga gore rino. Maonero chaiwo ehupfumi hweUS (kwete iyo yezvematongerwo enyika-pundit vhezheni) uye matambudziko chaiwo muEurozone uye kudzikira kwehupfumi hwepasirese kune imwe nzvimbo ndosaka iyo Federal Reserve mazuva mashoma apfuura yakaratidzawo kuti yakaronga kuchengetedza mhindu pa zero kwemamwe maviri ekuwedzera. makore, kuburikidza 2014, pachinzvimbo kutanga 2013. Yaiziva ruzhinji mishumo pamusoro upfumi December uye kota yechina akanga chaizvoizvo kwete zvose kuti rosey. Iyo Fed inoziva kuti hupfumi hweUS hungangove husina simba, husina kusimba, muna 2013 uye pamwe nekukurumidza. Inoziva kuti mabhanga eUS anozofanirwa kubhadhariswa mari zvakare kana mabhanga eEuropean tank zhizha rino. Uye kana izvo zvikaitika zvinoreva kuderera kwakapetwa kaviri munyori uyu anga achifanotaura kwete mushure mekutanga kwa2013.
Jack Rasmus ndiye munyori we 'An Alternative Program for Economic Recovery', Gumiguru 2011, inowanikwa pawebhusaiti yake, www.kyklosproductions.com; uye iri kuuya Kurume 2012 bhuku, "Obama's Economy: Kudzoreredza kune Vashoma", Pluto press uye Palgrave-Macmillan.