Maboma akamakumana ku Washington ku International Monetary Fund (IMF) -World Bank Spring Meeting (Epulo 10-16), akukumana ndi chiyembekezo chowopsa chakuti 2023 ikhoza kukhala chaka chomwe dziko lidzakhudzidwa ndi vuto langongole zamayiko omwe akutukuka kumene. mofanana ndi zomwe zinachitika kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 1980, zomwe zinapangitsa kuti zaka khumi zodziwika bwino zomwe zinatayika ku Latin America ndi Africa.
Zolakwika zingapo pakubweza ngongole m'zaka zitatu zapitazi zakhala ngati mabelu ochenjeza pakubweza ngongole yokulirapo. Pokhala ndi ngongole ya $324 biliyoni yomwe idafika ku 90 peresenti ya ndalama zonse zapakhomo, dziko la Argentina silinabweze ngongole yomwe idakonzedwa mu Meyi 2020. Zambia idachitanso chimodzimodzi mu Novembala 2020, ikusowa ndalama zokwana $42.5 miliyoni pa ngongole ya Eurobond. Zinatsatiridwa ndi zolakwika za Sri Lanka, Suriname, ndi Lebanon. zinali zosakhazikika za Sri Lanka mu Epulo 2022 zomwe zidakopa chidwi cha dziko lapansi pakutha kwavuto langongole lomwe likubwera kumwera kwapadziko lonse lapansi, mwina chifukwa chakugwa kwa mzera wandale, banja la a Rajapaksa, mkati mwa kuzimitsidwa kwamagetsi, mizere yayitali yogula chakudya. ndi zinthu zina zofunika, ndi zionetsero zazikulu mumsewu.
Kufanana Koopsa: Kubwereketsa Mosasamala, Kutsatiridwa ndi Ndalama Zolimba
Kufanana kochititsa chidwi ndi momwe m'ma 1970 ndi zaka zingapo zapitazi, nthawi ya ndalama zosavuta kapena kubwereketsa mosasamala idatsatiridwa ndi ulamuliro wa ndalama zolimba monga US Federal Reserve inkafuna kuthana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo mwa kukweza chiwongola dzanja, zomwe zimatsogolera ku boma kapena maiko omwe ali ndi ngongole zambiri zobweza ngongole.
Chifukwa cha kugwa kwachuma komwe kudayambika chifukwa cha mavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi mu 2008, Federal Reserve idatsitsa mtengo wake mpaka zero kuti itsitsimutse chuma cha US polimbikitsa mabizinesi kubwereka ndikuyika ndalama. Pofunafuna mipata yabwinoko kwina kulikonse, mabanki aakulu a Kumadzulo anayesa kukopa obwereketsa kapena maboma okhala ndi chiwongola dzanja chochepa. Komanso kufunafuna kupeza phindu anali osunga ndalama omwe adagula ma bond a mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene, omwe zokolola zawo zinali zapamwamba kuposa ma bond a US Treasury, ngakhale kuti anali ndi chiopsezo chachikulu. Monga lipoti limodzi "Ngakhale kuchuluka kwa ma bond kunatsika chifukwa chakusokonekera kwa msika pachimake chavuto lazachuma padziko lonse lapansi mu 2008, kuyambira 2010, pomwe chiwopsezo chikukwera komanso chiwongola dzanja chikutsika, osunga ndalama padziko lonse lapansi, adafuna kusokoneza chuma chawo. , adayambanso kufunafuna zokolola m'malo otsika mtengo ndipo olamulira adatengerapo mwayi pa chiwongola dzanja chochepa padziko lonse lapansi kuti apeze ndalama m'misika yapadziko lonse lapansi. Zotsatira zake, kutulutsidwa kwa ma bond kunakwera kwambiri. โ
Mwa kuyankhula kwina, atakhumudwitsidwa ndi kuyimirira ku United States komanso kutsika kwachuma ku Europe, obwereketsa osasamala adayenda ulendo wakumwera padziko lonse lapansi. Ndipo ngakhale kuti ngongole zawo ku GDP zidakhalabe zapamwamba, maboma a mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene adagonjetsedwa ndi mawu ooneka ngati okongola chifukwa anali ndi chinyengo chakuti kupitiriza kukula kwachuma kungapangitse ndalama zothandizira ngongoleyo.
Vuto Latsopano Langongole Likukulirakulira
Kunyenga kumeneku kudasiyana ndi kubwera kwa COVID-19 mu 2020, pomwe malonda apadziko lonse lapansi adalowa pansi, machitidwe azaumoyo adagwa ndipo adafuna kuti boma lipulumutse, mavuto azakudya adayamba, ndipo kukula kwachuma kudayima movutikira. Pamene chuma chawo chikucheperachepera ngakhale pamene malipiro awo pa chiwongoladzanja kwa owakongozawo anapitirizabe, maiko otukuka kumene anali pamavuto. Pofika mchaka cha 2021, vuto langongole ladziko lomwe likutukuka kumene linali kukulirakulira. Zinalimbikitsidwa ndi kukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo yamafuta ndi chakudya komwe kudayambika chifukwa cha nkhondo ku Ukraine mu 2022.
Yankho la dongosolo la mayiko osiyanasiyana linali lotchedwa Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), lomwe lidaimitsa kubweza ngongole kwa mayiko omwe akutenga nawo gawo kuyambira Meyi 2020 mpaka Disembala 2021. Makumi anayi mphambu asanu ndi atatu mwa iwo Maiko oyenera a 73 adachita nawo ntchitoyi isanathe. Malinga ndi World Bank, ntchitoyi idayimitsidwa $ 12.9 biliyoni pakubweza ngongole ngongole ndi mayiko omwe akutenga nawo mbali kwa omwe ali ndi ngongole. Komabe, wobwereketsa wachinsinsi mmodzi yekha ndi amene adatenga nawo mbali.
Pamodzi ndi DSSI, G20, IMF, ndi Banki Yadziko Lonse adapanga zomwe zimatchedwa "Common Framework" zomwe zimayenera kupereka ndondomeko yochotsera ngongole zamtsogolo. Komabe, Common Framework inali yovuta. Mayiko anayi okhaโZambia, Chad, Ethiopia, ndi Ghanaโndi omwe avomereza kutenga nawo mbali, ndipo Chad yokha ndi yomwe idakwanitsa kumaliza ntchitoyi.
Zinthu zitatu zidadziwika kuti zimapangitsa kuti ikhale yosayambitsa. Choyamba chinali chimene wofufuza wina akufotokozedwa monga โndondomeko yomaliza, yophatikizapo makomiti obwereketsa ndalama, International Monetary Fund, ndi World Bank, onsewo ayenera kukambirana ndi kuvomerezana za mmene angakonzerenso ngongole zimene mayiko ali nazo.โ Chachiwiri chinali kukana kapena kusafuna kwa mabanki apadera ndi omwe ali ndi bond kuti atenge nawo mbali. Lachitatu linali loti mayiko oyenerera sakanatha kukumana ndi zotsatira zandale pokhazikitsa njira zochepetsera za IMF pa anthu omwe akuvutika kale ndi zotsatira za COVID-19.
Kulimbana ndi Kutsika kwa Ndalama Kumpoto, Kuwononga Kumwera
Zinali muzochitika zowawa kale izi kuti US Federal Reserve ndi mabanki ena apakati aku Western adayamba kampeni yaukali yokweza chiwongola dzanja mu 2022 kuti ikhale ndi inflation muzachuma zawo, kulimbikitsa dola ndikupangitsa kuti likulu la Western libwerere kumayiko akumadzulo. maiko otukuka. Mu Juni 2022 kokha, $ 4 biliyoni idatuluka m'misika yomwe ikubwera ndi masheya. Ndi kuchuluka kwa chiwongola dzanja, kuchuluka kwa misika yomwe ikubwera yokhala ndi ma bond "pamavuto" -ndiko kuti, zokolola zochulukirapo kuposa 10 peresenti kuposa kuchuluka kwamitengo yofananira ya Treasury - kuwirikiza kawiri m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yokha. Ma bond omwe akutukuka akuchokera kumayiko ena adatsika mtengo, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti osunga ndalama atayike, ndikuchotsera kwakukulu kuyambira masenti 40 mpaka 60 pa dollar.
Panafunika kuchitapo kanthu mwamphamvu, popeza zinali zoonekeratu kuti panalibe njira yoti ngongole zazikulu zomwe zibwezedwe zikakwaniritsidwe, monganso kafukufuku wachidule wa mayiko ena amene ali ndi ngongole zambiri anasonyeza mwamsanga. Egypt inali ndi ndalama zokwana $7 biliyoni zomwe zimayenera kulipira ngongole pakati pa Novembala 2022 ndi February 2023. Pakistan inali ndi ngongole zosachepera $41 biliyoni kuyambira pakati pa 2022 mpaka pakati pa 2023. Chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa malonda chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwachuma kwa COVID-19 komanso ndalama zochepa zomwe zikubwera, mayiko 25 omwe akutukuka kumene adawona kuti ngongole zawo zakunja zikupitilira 20 peresenti yazopeza zonse zaboma.
A Kumadzulo Akuchita Masewera Olakwa
Ngakhale atachenjezedwatu, palibe ndondomeko yopewera ngozi yomwe ikubwerayi. Zomwe zimatchedwa Common Framework zomwe zinapangidwa ndi G-20, World Bank, ndi IMF ndizosakwanira. M'malo mwake, mabungwe azachuma aku Western achita masewera olakwa, ndiko kuti, kuzindikiritsa njira zobwereketsa zaku China ngati vuto.
Mlanduwu uli ndi maziko ochepa popeza mbiri ikuwonetsa kuti dziko la China lakhala lowolowa manja pokhululukira ngongole za mayiko osauka, makamaka ku Africa. Kufufuza mwachidule kukuwonetsa kuti zonena zaku China sizabodza kapena kukokomeza. Mbiri ikuwonetsa kuti China idalemba ngongole ya $ 72 miliyoni ndi Cameroon mu 2019, $ 72 miliyoni yomwe idabweza ngongole ku Botswana ndi $ 10.6 miliyoni yomwe idabweza ngongole ku Lesotho mu 2018, ndi $ 160 miliyoni yomwe idabweza ngongole ku Sudan mu 2017. Gulu lofufuza la Rhodium lidapeza milandu 40 yakubweza ngongole China yokwana madola 50 biliyoni m'maiko 24 kuyambira 2000. M'mawu ake a UN Millennium Challenge mu 2010, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao adawulula kuti China idathetsa ngongole zomwe mayiko osauka 50 omwe ali ndi ngongole zambiri (HIPCs) ndi mayiko osatukuka (LDCs) okwana 25.6 biliyoni ya yuan ($ 3.8 biliyoni).
Zolinga zenizeni za "Blame China" zokopa alendo ndikupangitsa dziko la China kuti likhale limodzi lomwe lingakhazikitse zikhalidwe zolimba kumayiko omwe ali ndi ngongole ngati mtengo wochotsera ngongole, njira yomwe China idati siinagwire ntchito chifukwa sichikuwongolera. gwero la vuto la ngongole za mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene.
Chofunika ndichani?
Komabe vuto lomwe liripoli likhoza kusandulika kukhala mwayi. Palibe cholakwika ndi njira yolimba mtima, yolungama, komanso yothandiza yomwe ingasiyire njira zosasinthika, zodziwikiratu, zotsutsa chitukuko zachitukuko zomwe zidapangidwa kuti zithetse mavuto azaka za m'ma 1970 ndi 1980 ndikukhazikitsa pulogalamu yochotsa ngongole zazikulu mkati mwa kusintha kwachitukuko chothandizira chitukuko chokhazikika, kuchepetsa kwambiri umphawi ndi kusalingana, ndi chilungamo cha nyengo.
Njira yoyamba komanso yofulumira kwambiri ikuwonekera: onjezerani kuyimitsidwa kwa malipiro a ngongole kuyambira kumapeto kwa 2021 pamene maboma akukonzekera njira yothetsera vutoli, ndondomeko yomwe idzatenge miyezi yambiri kuti ikwaniritse mgwirizano wa modicum.
Chachiwiri, misonkhano yamayiko osiyanasiyana yomwe imayang'aniridwa ndi IMF ndi World Bank kapena G-20 siyiperekanso njira zothetsera vuto la ngongole. Kuyimilira kochulukirapo, kukhazikitsidwa kwa demokalase kumafunika, komwe kudzalola mayiko omwe ali ndi ngongole kuti atenge nawo mbali moyenera komanso pomwe malingaliro osiyanasiyana atha kufotokozedwa kupyola pa Kugwirizana kwa Washington. Yakwana nthawi yoti apange ndikuchita msonkhano wapadziko lonse kuti abwere ndi chigamulo chopita patsogolo ku ngongole za mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene, mwinamwake mothandizidwa ndi UN General Assembly.
Chachitatu, kukula kwa vutolo kuli kotero kuti kumafuna njira yothetsera vutoli, yomwe imavomereza kuti siawongongole okha omwe ayenera kutenga udindo wa mkhalidwe wolephera komanso omwe amabwereketsa ngongole mosasamala, mfundo yomwe tsopano ikuvomerezedwa pakukonzanso ngongole. . Bungwe la UN Development Programme likufuna "kumeta tsitsi" kwa 30 peresenti, kapena kuchepetsa malipiro apamwamba a mayiko a 52 omwe ali ndi ngongole zambiri kuchokera ku 2021 mpaka 2029. Izi zikhoza kukhala chiyambi cha zokambirana zoyamba, ngakhale okambirana ayenera kukhala omasuka kuzinthu zazikulu. . Mu pepala lokonzekera kufalitsidwa kwa OECD Nkhani Zachitukuko, akatswiri azachuma a Rachid Bouhia ndi a Patrick Kacmarczyk akunenetsa kuti โkampeni yaikulu yothetsa ngongole kwa Mayiko Opeza Ndalama Zochepa ndi Mayiko Opeza Ndalama Zapakati โsiโฆ
Chachinayi, pulogalamu yopereka ngongole iyenera kuganizira mfundo yakuti mayiko osauka omwe ali ndi ngongole zambiri nthawi zambiri amakhala pachiwopsezo kwambiri pankhani ya kusintha kwa nyengo komanso kuti ali ndi ngongole yachilengedwe ndi dziko la kumpoto kwa dziko lonse lapansi. wathandizira kwambiri kuchuluka kwa mpweya wotulutsa mpweya m'mbiri. Ngati gawoli likuganiziridwa, ndikupatsidwanso kuti ngongole yawo yoyambirira idabwezeredwa kale nthawi zambiri, ndiye kuti kuchotsedwa kwa ngongole ya mayiko osatukuka kwambiri kuyenera kukhala pandandanda.
Chachisanu, kuchepekera ndi kukonzanso kamangidwe kuyenera kusiyidwa ngati njira yokonzanso ngongole chifukwa apanga njira zomwe zawonjezera chiopsezo cha maiko omwe akutukuka kumene ku mavuto angongole. Chofunikira ndi dongosolo lomwe limathandizira maiko kuti atukuke mokwanira komanso mosasunthika ndikuwathandiza kupanga zotchinga ku zovuta zoyipa zazachuma padziko lonse lapansi zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira komanso kusakhazikika.
Pomaliza, maboma akuyenera kusiya kugwiritsa ntchito zokambilana zangongole ngati bwalo lopititsira patsogolo zolinga zawo zandale. Makamaka, Washington iyenera kusiya kugwiritsa ntchito IMF-World Bank/Paris Club kuti ilekanitse China.
Vuto la ngongole za mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene ndivuto lalikulu kwambiri. Koma ukhoza kukhalanso mwayi woti pakhale dongosolo logwirizana komanso lolungama padziko lonse lapansi.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
Ndalama