Chifukwa chiyani bajeti ya Pentagon ndiyokwera kwambiri?
Pa Marichi 13, oyang'anira Biden adavumbulutsa zake $ Biliyoni 842 pempho la bajeti yankhondo ya 2024, kufunsa kwakukulu (m'madola amakono) kuyambira pachimake cha nkhondo za Afghanistan ndi Iraq. Ndipo samalani, izi zisanachitike kuti akazembe ku Congress agwirepo. Chaka chatha, adawonjezera $ 35 biliyoni pa pempho la oyang'anira ndipo, chaka chino, zowonjezera zawo zitha kutsimikizira kuti ndizokulirapo. Popeza magulu ankhondo aku America sali pankhondo pakali pano (ngati simukuwawerengera kuchita nawo ntchito zolimbana ndi zigawenga ku Africa ndi kwina), ndi chiyani chikufotokozera ndalama zambiri zankhondo?
Yankho loperekedwa ndi akuluakulu a Pentagon ndipo lidanenedwa muzofalitsa zapa TV ku Washington ndikuti dziko lino likukumana ndi chiopsezo chokulirapo cha nkhondo ndi Russia kapena China (kapena onse awiri nthawi imodzi) ndikuti phunziro la mikangano yomwe ikuchitika ku Ukraine ndikofunikira amasunga mabomba ambiri, zoponya ndi zida zina zambiri. "Pentagon, Juggling Russia, China, Ikufuna Mabiliyoni Kuti Apeze Zida Zazitali Zazitali" zinali zodziwika bwino. mutu mu Washington Post za pempho la bajeti la 2024. Atsogoleri ankhondo akuyang'ana kwambiri mkangano womwe ungakhalepo m'tsogolo ndi mphamvu zonse ziwirizi ndipo akukhulupirira kuti ndalama zambiri ziyenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito pokonzekera zotsatirazi, zomwe zikutanthauza kugula akasinja owonjezera, zombo, ndi ndege, pamodzi ndi zonse. mabomba, zipolopolo, ndi mizinga imene amanyamula.
Ngakhale kuyang'ana kwachidule pazachidule za bajeti yamtsogolo kumatsimikizira kuwunika kotere. Ambiri mwa mabiliyoni a madola omwe akuyikidwamo amapangidwa kuti agule ndendende zomwe mungayembekezere kugwiritsa ntchito pankhondo ndi mphamvuzo kumapeto kwa 2020s kapena 2030s. Kupatula ndalama za ogwira ntchito ndi ndalama zogwirira ntchito, the gawo lalikulu ya bajeti yomwe ikuperekedwa - $ 170 biliyoni kapena 20% - yaperekedwa pogula zida zotere.
Koma pamene kukonzekera nkhondo zoterezi posachedwapa kumayendetsa gawo lalikulu la kuwonjezeka kumeneku, gawo lodabwitsa la izo - $ 145 biliyoni, kapena 17% - cholinga chake ndi mikangano yomwe ingatheke mu 2040s ndi 2050s. Kukhulupirira kuti "mpikisano wanjiraโ ndi China ikuyenera kupitilira zaka zambiri zikubwera komanso kuti mkangano ndi dzikolo ukhoza kuyambika nthawi iliyonse m'tsogolomu, Pentagon ikupempha gawo lake lalikulu kwambiri pazomwe zimatchedwa "kafukufuku, chitukuko, kuyesa, ndi kuwunika" ( RDT&E), kapena njira yosinthira zomwe zapezedwa posachedwa zasayansi kukhala zida zankhondo.
Kuyika izi moyenera, kuti $ 145 biliyoni ndi kuposa dziko lina lililonse kupatula zomwe China imawononga pachitetezo cha toto ndipo imakhala pafupifupi theka la bajeti yonse yankhondo yaku China. Ndiye ndalama zochuluka bwanji, zomwe ndi gawo laling'ono chabe la bajeti yankhondo yadziko lino, yopangidwira?
Zina mwa izo, makamaka gawo la "T&E", lapangidwira kukweza kwamtsogolo kwa zida zomwe zilipo kale. Mwachitsanzo, bomba la B-52 - pazaka 70, mtundu wakale kwambiri womwe ukuwulukabe - ulipo kusinthidwa kunyamula zida zoyeserera za AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapons (ARRWs), kapena mizinga yapamwamba kwambiri ya hypersonic. Koma zambiri mwazomwezi, makamaka gawo la "R&D", cholinga chake ndi kupanga zida zomwe sizingawone kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwankhondo mpaka zaka makumi angapo mtsogolomo, ngati zidzachitika. Kuwononga ndalama pamakina otere kudakali okha mu mabiliyoni kapena otsika mabiliyoni, koma izi zidzakwera mabiliyoni makumi kapena mazana mabiliyoni a madola m'zaka zikubwerazi, kuwonetsetsa kuti bajeti za Pentagon zamtsogolo zikukwera kufika mabiliyoni.
Weaponizing Emerging Technologies
Kuyendetsa Pentagon kuti ikuchulukirachulukira pakukulitsa zida zamtsogolo ndikungoganiza kuti China ndi Russia zikhalabe adani akulu kwazaka zambiri zikubwerazi ndikuti nkhondo zamtsogolo ndi iwo, kapena maulamuliro ena akuluakulu, zitha kuganiziridwa makamaka ndi luso lanzeru zopanga (AI) pamodzi. ndi matekinoloje ena omwe akubwera. Izi zingaphatikizepo ma robotics, ma hypersonics (ma projekiti omwe amawuluka kuwirikiza kasanu liwiro la phokoso), ndi makompyuta a quantum. Monga Pentagon's 2024 pempho la bajeti idanenera:
"Kuchulukirachulukira kwamatekinoloje omwe akupita patsogolo mwachangu komanso kugwiritsa ntchito zida zaukadaulo zomwe zilipo kale kumapangitsa kuti dipatimenti ya [Defence] ikhalebe yolimba polimbana ndi kudalirika komanso kuletsa. Kuthekera kwatsopano monga zida zapamlengalenga, zida za hypersonic, njira zatsopano zolipirira ndi zoperekeraโฆ zonse zimapanga kuthekera kokulirapoโฆ
Kuwonetsetsa kuti dziko lino likhoza kugonjetsa magulu ankhondo aku China ndi / kapena aku Russia pakukumana kulikonse, akuluakulu akuumirira kuti, Washington iyenera kuyang'ana kwambiri pakuyika ndalama m'njira zazikulu zamaukadaulo apamwamba zomwe zitha kulamulira mabwalo ankhondo amtsogolo. Chifukwa chake, $ 17.8 biliyoni ya $ 145 biliyoni ya RDT & E idzaperekedwa mwachindunji ku chitukuko cha sayansi ndi luso lankhondo. Ndalamazo, Pentagon ikufotokoza kuti, zidzagwiritsidwa ntchito kufulumizitsa zida zanzeru zopangira ndikufulumizitsa kukula kwa matekinoloje ena omwe akubwera, makamaka robotics, zida zankhondo zodziimira (kapena "zopanda ntchito"), ndi mizinga ya hypersonic.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) ndiyofunikira kwambiri ku dipatimenti yachitetezo, chifukwa chamitundu yosiyanasiyana yomwe ingagwiritsidwe ntchito pankhondo, kuphatikiza kuzindikiritsa chandamale ndikuwunika, kuwongolera zida zankhondo ndi njira zolunjika, komanso kupanga zisankho mothandizidwa ndi makompyuta. Ngakhale palibe chiลตerengero chonse cha kafukufuku wa AI ndi chitukuko chomwe chimaperekedwa mu mtundu wosadziwika wa bajeti ya 2024, mapulogalamu ena payekha amawunikidwa. Chimodzi mwa izi ndi Joint All-Domain Command-and-Control system (JADC2), matrix opangidwa ndi AI a masensa, makompyuta, ndi zida zoyankhulirana zomwe cholinga chake ndi kusonkhanitsa ndi kukonza deta pa kayendetsedwe ka adani ndikupereka chidziwitsocho pa liwiro la mphezi kuti athane nazo. mphamvu mu "malo" aliwonse (mpweya, nyanja, nthaka, ndi mlengalenga). Pa $ 1.3 biliyoni, JADC2 sangakhale "chiwerengero chachikulu mu bajeti," anati Motsogozedwa ndi Secretary of Defense a Michael J. McCord, koma ndi "lingaliro lalikulu kwambiri la momwe tikuyesera kulumikiza chidziwitso pamodzi."
AI ndiyofunikanso kuti pakhale chitukuko cha - ndipo inde, palibe chomwe chikuwoneka kuti chikusowa chidule m'malemba a Pentagon - zida zankhondo zodziyimira pawokha, kapena magalimoto osayendetsedwa ndi ndege (UAVs), magalimoto osayendetsedwa pansi (UGVs), ndi zombo zapamtunda zopanda anthu (USVs). Zida zotere - zodziwika bwino kwambiri "maloboti akuphaโ ndi otsutsa awo - nthawi zambiri amaphatikiza nsanja yamtundu wina (ndege, thanki, kapena sitima), "makina ophera" (mfuti kapena mizinga), komanso kuthekera kozindikira ndikuwukira komwe anthu akuyang'anira. Pokhulupirira kuti nkhondo yamtsogolo idzakhala yoopsa kwambiri, akuluakulu a Pentagon funa kusintha nsanja zake zambiri zogwirira ntchito momwe zingathere - lingalirani zombo, ndege, ndi zida zankhondo - zokhala ndi ma UAV apamwamba, ma UGV, ndi ma USV.
Pempho la bajeti ya 2024 silimaphatikizapo chiลตerengero chonse cha dola yofufuza za zida zamtsogolo zosayendetsedwa koma zidalira chinthu chimodzi: chidzafika mabiliyoni ambiri a madola. Bajetiyi ikuwonetsa kuti $ 2.2 biliyoni ikufunidwa kuti igulidwe koyambirira kwa MQ-4 ndi MQ-25 magalimoto osayendetsedwa ndi ndege, ndipo ziwerengero zotere zimatsimikizika kuti zidzakula pamene makina oyesera a robotic akupita kukupanga kwakukulu. Madola 200 miliyoni ena adafunsidwa kuti apange USV yayikulu, makamaka frigate yopanda anthu kapena wowononga. Zombo zamtundu wamtunduwu zikapangidwa ndikuyesedwa, Gulu Lankhondo Lankhondo likukonzekera kuyitanitsa angapo, mwina mazana aiwo, ndikupanga msika wowonjezera wa $ 100 biliyoni wa gulu lankhondo lankhondo lopanda anthu wamba.
Dera lina lomwe limalandira chidwi cha Pentagon ndi ma hypersonics, chifukwa ma projectiles amawuluka mwachangu kwambiri ndikuyendetsa mwaluso (pamene akuyenda pamwamba pa mlengalenga) kotero kuti siziyenera kutheka kuti azitha kuzitsata ndikudutsa. Onse a China ndi Russia ali kale ndi zida zamtunduwu, ndi Russia akuti akuwombera ena mwa zida zake za hypersonic Kinzhal kupita ku Ukraine m'miyezi yaposachedwa.
Monga Pentagon idayika mu pempho lake la bajeti:
"Makina a Hypersonic amakulitsa luso lathu losunga zigoli zakutali pachiwopsezo, kufupikitsa kwambiri nthawi kuti tikwaniritse zomwe mukufuna, ndipo kuwongolera kwawo kumawonjezera kupulumuka komanso kusadziwikiratu. Dipatimentiyi idzafulumizitsa kupititsa patsogolo mphamvu zosinthika zomwe zimathandizidwa ndi zida zamlengalenga, nthaka, ndi nyanja zankhondo za hypersonic kuti tithane ndi zovuta zomwe zidzachitike m'tsogolomu.
14% ina ya pempho la RDT&E, kapena pafupifupi $2.5 biliyoni, laikidwiratu kuti likafufuzidwe m'magawo oyesera monga quantum computing ndi ma microelectronics apamwamba. "Ndalama zasayansi ndiukadaulo za dipatimenti zimathandizidwa ndi kafukufuku woyambira koyambirira," Pentagon ikufotokoza. "Malipiro a kafukufukuyu sangawonekere kwa zaka zambiri, koma ndikofunikira kuti tiwonetsetse kuti titha kukhala ndi luso laukadaulo m'zaka zambiri zikubwerazi." Monga momwe zilili ndi AI, zida zodziyimira pawokha, ndi ma hypersonics, zocheperako izi (mwa miyezo ya Pentagon) zidzawoneka m'zaka zikubwerazi pomwe zodziwikiratu zoyamba zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pazida zogwira ntchito ndikugulidwa mokulirapo.
Kugwiritsa Ntchito Talente ya American Tech Kukonzekera Nkhondo Kwanthawi yayitali
Pali chotsatira chimodzi chandalama zotere mu RDT&E zomwe ndizodziwikiratu kuti sizingatchulidwe. Ngati mukuganiza kuti bajeti ya Pentagon ndiyokwera kwambiri, ingodikirani! Kuwononga ndalama zam'tsogolo, monga momwe malingaliro a labotale amasiku ano amasinthidwa kukhala machitidwe enieni omenyera nkhondo, zitha kudodometsa malingaliro. Ndipo ichi ndi chimodzi mwazotsatira zazikulu za njira yotereyi yopita ku utsogoleri wokhazikika wankhondo. Kuonetsetsa kuti United States ikupitirizabe kulamulira kafukufuku mu matekinoloje omwe akubwera omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pa zida zamtsogolo, Pentagon idzayesetsa kugwiritsa ntchito gawo lowonjezereka lazinthu za sayansi ndi zamakono za dziko lino pa ntchito yokhudzana ndi usilikali.
Izi, zidzatanthauza kutenga gawo lokulirapo la bajeti ya R&D yaboma kuwononga zofunikira zina zadziko. Mu 2022, mwachitsanzo, ndalama za federal za R&D zosakhala zankhondo (kuphatikiza National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health, ndi National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) zidayimilira. pafupifupi 33% za ndalama za R&D. Ngati bajeti yankhondo ya 2024 idutsa pamlingo womwe wapemphedwa (kapena kupitilira apo), kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe sizili zankhondo zidzatsikira ku 31%, zomwe zitha kulimbitsa mtsogolo momwe zinthu zambiri zimaperekedwa pokonzekera nkhondo, kusiya. gawo lomwe likucheperachepera la ndalama za okhometsa msonkho pofufuza pazovuta zofunika monga kupewa ndi kuchiza khansa, kuyankha kwa mliri, komanso kusintha kwa nyengo.
Zosadetsa nkhawa kwambiri, asayansi ndi mainjiniya adzakhala ochulukirachulukira adalimbikitsidwa - osanenanso, adalimbikitsa - kupereka ntchito zawo ku kafukufuku wankhondo m'malo mogwira ntchito m'malo amtendere. Ngakhale asayansi ambiri akuvutika kuti apeze ndalama zothandizira ntchito yawo, Dipatimenti ya Chitetezo (DoD) imapereka mitolo ya ndalama kwa iwo omwe amasankha kuphunzira mitu yokhudzana ndi usilikali. Nthawi zambiri, pempho la 2024 likuphatikiza $ 347 miliyoni pazomwe asitikali akuchitcha kuti University Research Initiative, zambiri zomwe zidzagwiritsidwe ntchito pothandizira kupanga "magulu a ofufuza m'magawo osiyanasiyana komanso malire amadera kuti ayang'ane pa sayansi yolimba ya DoD. mavuto.โ Zinanso $200 miliyoni zilipo zoperekedwa ku Joint University Microelectronics Program ndi Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency, chovala cha Pentagon cha R&D, pomwe $ Miliyoni 100 ikuperekedwa ku University Consortium for Applied Hypersonics ndi Pentagon's Joint Hypersonics Transition Office. Pokhala ndi ndalama zambiri zomwe zimalowa m'mapulogalamu otere komanso gawo loperekedwa ku magawo ena a maphunziro likucheperachepera, sizosadabwitsa kuti asayansi ndi ophunzira omaliza maphunziro awo m'mayunivesite akuluakulu akukokedwa ndi kafukufuku wa Pentagon.
M'malo mwake, ikufunanso kukulitsa talente yake popereka ndalama zowonjezera ku makoleji akale akuda ndi mayunivesite (HBCUs). Mwachitsanzo, mu Januware, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin adalengeza kuti Howard University ku Washington, D.C. osankhidwa monga sukulu yoyamba yotereyi kuti ikhale ngati malo ofufuzira okhudzana ndi yunivesite ndi Dipatimenti ya Chitetezo, yomwe posachedwapa idzagwira nawo ntchito pa zida zodzilamulira. Izi, ndithudi, zidzapereka ndalama zomwe zikufunikira kwambiri kwa asayansi ndi mainjiniya pasukuluyo ndi ma HBCU ena omwe mwina adasowa ndalama m'mbuyomu. Koma imafunsanso funso: Chifukwa chiyani a Howard sakuyenera kulandira ndalama zofananira kuti aphunzire zamavuto omwe ali ofunika kwambiri kwa anthu akuda monga sickle-cell anemia ndi umphawi wadzaoneni?
Endless Arms Race vs. Chitetezo Choona
Popereka mabiliyoni onsewa a madola kuti afufuze za zida za m'badwo wotsatira, malingaliro a Pentagon ndi osavuta: gwiritsani ntchito pano kuti muwonetsetse kuti asitikali aku US akupambana mu 2040s, 2050s, ndi kupitirira apo. Koma ngakhale kudzitukumulaku kungawoneke ngati kokopa - ngakhale ndalama zochulukirazi zikulowamo - zinthu sizimayenda bwino kwambiri. Kugulitsa kwakukulu kulikonse kotere ndi dziko limodzi kumadzetsa kutsutsana ndi mayiko omwe akulimbana nawo, kuwonetsetsa kuti phindu lililonse laukadaulo lidzathetsedwa posachedwa, monga momwe dziko lapansi likusinthira kukhala gulu lankhondo.
Kupanga zida zankhondo zotsogozedwa ndi Pentagon, mwachitsanzo, zidapatsa asitikali aku America mwayi waukulu wankhondo pankhondo za Persian Gulf za 1991 ndi 2003, komanso zidapangitsa China, Iran, Russia, ndi mayiko ena kuti ayambe kupanga zida zofananira, ndikuchepa mwachangu. mwayi umenewo. Momwemonso, China ndi Russia anali oyamba kugwiritsa ntchito zida za hypersonic zokonzeka kumenya nkhondo, koma poyankha, US ikhala ikupanga zida zambiri muzaka zingapo.
Kupita patsogolo kwa China ndi Russia pakutumiza ma hypersonics kudapangitsanso US kuyika ndalama pakupanga - inde, mumaganiza! - anti-hypersonic hypersonics, kuyambitsa mpikisano winanso wa zida padziko lapansi, ndikukulitsa bajeti ya Pentagon ndi mabiliyoni owonjezera. Poganizira zonsezi, ndikukhulupirira kuti simudzadabwe kumva kuti pempho la bajeti ya 2024 Pentagon ndi $209 miliyoni popanga cholumikizira cha hypersonic, gawo loyamba lokhalo lachitukuko chokwera mtengo komanso mapulogalamu ogula zinthu m'zaka zikubwerazi ku Washington, Beijing, ndi Moscow.
Ngati mukufuna kubetcha pachilichonse, nayi njira yotsimikizika yopitira: Pentagon ikufuna kukwaniritsa kutsogola pakupanga ndi kutumizira zida zapamwamba sizidzatsogolera ku ukulu koma ku kuzungulira kwina kosatha kwa mipikisano yankhondo yapamwamba kwambiri yomwe, nawonso. , idzawononga gawo lochulukirachulukira la chuma cha dziko lino ndi luso la sayansi, pamene likupereka kuwongolera kopanda pake kwa chitetezo cha dziko. M'malo mowononga ndalama zambiri pogula zida zamtsogolo, tonsefe tiyenera kuganizira za njira zowongolera zida, mgwirizano wapadziko lonse lapansi wanyengo, komanso kuyika ndalama zambiri mu R&D yopanda usilikali.
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