Kodi chidzachitike ndi chiyani China ikadzaukira Taiwan, monga momwe ambiri ku Washington amakhulupirira kuti nzosapeŵeka? Kuti tiyankhe funsoli, a House Select Committee on Chinese Communist Party, bungwe lomwe linapangidwa motsogozedwa ndi sipikala Kevin McCarthy mu February, lidachita “zochita zolimbitsa thupi” zomwe zikukhudza kuukira kofananako pa Epulo 19. Zochita zapakhomo zawonetsedwa poyera, koma omwe adatenga nawo mbali adawonetsa kuti zotsatira za mkangano wotero zitha kukhala zowopsa kwa onse omwe akukhudzidwa. Mamembala a komiti anakumana “ndi kuthekera kwa imfa ndi chiwonongeko pa masikelo zomwe sizinawonedwepo m’zaka makumi angapo,” anatero woseŵera maseŵero wina. Chomwe sichinanenedwe, komabe, ndichakuti kuchitapo kanthu kotereku kungathe kulimbana ndi zida zanyukiliya-ndipo kuyenera kudutsa.
Inde, alipo palibe chifukwa choganiza kuti China nditero kuukira Taiwan, zomwe zimabweretsa chiopsezo cha apocalyptic. Komabe, Chinese akuluakulu anena izi ufulu wawo wogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kuti aletse "zinthu zolekanitsa" pachilumbachi kuti zithetse ubale ndi dziko, ndi masewera ankhondo aku China aposachedwa-zambiri zomwe zidachitika m'masiku otsatira a Purezidenti waku Taiwan a Tsai Ing-wen pa Epulo 5 ndi Sipikala McCarthy ku California - apereka malingaliro okonzekera bwino ntchito ngati imeneyi. Kaya kapena kusuntha uku kukusonyeza cholinga chenicheni gwiritsa ntchito mphamvu, ndondomeko ya chitetezo ku US yagwirizana kwambiri ndi zolinga zoteteza chilumbachi ngati Beijing angawononge. Chifukwa chake, mkangano wa US-China pa Taiwan wakhala zotheka kwenikweni-ndipo izi zapangitsa kuti pakhale nkhawa zambiri pazomwe zingachitike chifukwa cha mkangano wotere.
Poganizira zochitika zotere, ndi zachibadwa kuganiza kuti mkangano pa Taiwan ungawoneke ngati nkhondo yomwe ikuchitika ku Ukraine, ndi a Taiwan akumenyana ndi achi China monga a Ukrainians akhala akumenyana ndi a Russia. Koma izi zingakhale zosocheretsa. Nkhondo ku Ukraine idasanduka mkangano wankhanza, mbali iliyonse ikulimbana kuti itenge kapena kusunga magawo akuluakulu ndipo United States ikuchepetsa kutenga nawo gawo pakupereka zida, maphunziro, ndi nzeru. Kuwukira kwa China ku Taiwan, komabe, kungawonekere kosiyana kwambiri, kuphatikiza nkhondo zazikulu zamlengalenga ndi zam'nyanja, ndipo, mwina, kulowererapo kwa US nthawi yomweyo, Purezidenti Biden. wanena zambiri pazochitika zinayi zosiyana. Zotsatira zake, zophatikiza mazana a ndege zankhondo mbali zonse ndi zombo zazikulu zambiri zankhondo, zikutsimikizira kupha anthu ambiri ndikubweretsa mavuto akulu.
Poyembekezera kukumana kotereku, mayiko a United States ndi China apititsa patsogolo luso lankhondo lankhondo zawo zakumlengalenga ndi zapamadzi, m'malo mwa zombo zakale ndi ndege ndi zida zamakono komanso zaluso. Japan, yemwe mwina adatenga nawo gawo pankhondo ya US-China yolimbana ndi Taiwan, yalimbikitsa gulu lake lankhondo lomwe lili ndi zida zokwanira - monyenga lotchedwa Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) - ndi posachedwa adalengeza mapulani owonjezera ndalama zake zodzitetezera.
Mayiko onsewa ayikanso ndalama zambiri kuti apeze zida zoponya zowongoka nthawi yayitali zomwe zimapangidwira kuukira zombo za adani, madoko, mabwalo a ndege, ndi zida zina zamtengo wapatali. Asilikali aku China, People's Liberation Army (PLA), waunjikana mphamvu pafupifupi 700 zoponya mizinga zazifupi, zapakatikati, ndi zapakatikati, zomwe zimatha kufika ku Taiwan, Japan, ndi mabwalo aku US ku Pacific, kuphatikiza makiyi oyambira aku US komanso apanyanja pa Guam. United States, kumbali yake, yakonzekeretsa zombo zake ndi sitima zapamadzi ndi mazana a zida zankhondo zamtundu wa Tomahawk land-attack, zomwe zimatha kugunda madera a m'mphepete mwa nyanja ku China kuchokera pamtunda wamakilomita mazana ambiri kumtunda. Kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwakukulu kwa zida zotere kumayambiriro kwa mkangano uliwonse wa US-China ndizowona kuti kumabweretsa kuwonongeka kwakukulu kumbali zonse ziwiri, ndi zombo zambiri zomwe zinatayika ndipo zolinga zina zatha.
Zotsatira za Masewera a Nkhondo
Kuti timvetsetse momwe nkhondo yapakati pa magulu ankhondo okhala ndi zida izi ingayambire, akasinja awiri oganiza aku Washington, Center for New American Security (CNAS) ndi Center for Strategic and International Study (CSIS), adachita zofananira. kukumana kotereku mu 2022. Pazochitika zonse, gulu la akatswiri odziwa bwino ntchito komanso akuluakulu aboma omwe kale anali akuluakulu adatenga udindo wa akuluakulu a malamulo a ku China, Japan, Taiwan, ndi US. Zomwe zapezeka m'mabungwe onsewa ndizophunzitsa kwambiri, koma zochokera ku CNAS zikuwulula makamaka ngati adatumikira monga maziko a kuyerekezera kwa komiti ya Nyumbayi pa Epulo 19. Kwa ife omwe sitinapeze chidziwitso chodziwika bwino, zotsatira izi zimapereka chisonyezero chabwino kwambiri cha zomwe tingayembekezere kuchokera ku nkhondo ya US-China ku Taiwan.
Mayesero onse a CNAS ndi CSIS amakhazikika pamalingaliro omwewo: Nthawi ina m'tsogolomu, tinene mu 2026 kapena 2027, atsogoleri aku China atsimikiza kuti Taiwan yatsala pang'ono kulengeza ufulu wake ndikusankha kuukira chilumbachi kuti izi zisachitike. . Kuti akwaniritse izi, anthu aku China amawombera pachilumbachi motsatizana ndi kuukira kwa amphibious pofuna kulanda gombe la nyanja ku Taiwan. Komanso, poyembekezera zotsutsana ndi US ndi Japan, amaphulitsa mabwalo amlengalenga aku US ku Japan ndikuwombera mizinga ingapo pazombo zankhondo zaku US mderali. Poyankha, a ku Taiwan amayesetsa kukhala ndi chilichonse chomwe PLA ingathe kukhazikitsa pachilumbachi pamene US ndi Japan amayesa kulepheretsa PLA kumenyana ndi zombo za ku China, madoko, zowombera mizinga, ndi ma airbase.
Uwu ndi mtundu wankhondo womwe kupambana komaliza kumadalira kwambiri kupambana kwa munthu pakuwononga zinthu zazikulu za mdani. mwamsanga, pele bakali kuletwa kulwana. Chifukwa chake, cholinga chachikulu cha US-Taiwan chikhala kumiza zombo zambiri zaku China zomwe zingatheke m'masiku oyamba omenyera nkhondo, pomwe cholinga chachikulu cha China chikhala kunyozera ndege zaku US poukira mabwalo apamlengalenga aku US ndi zonyamulira ndege. Pamene mbali zonse ziwiri zikuombera ziwiya zikwizikwi zowongoleredwa molondola, kuluza kwa mbali zonse kudzakhala kwakukulu kwambiri.
Izi ndizochitika zomwe sipangakhale opambana. M'magawo onse a zochitika zomwe mabungwe onsewa adachita, dziko la China likulephera kulanda Taipei, likulu la dziko la Taiwan, m'milungu ingapo yoyambilira yankhondo, komabe chilumbachi chikuvutika ndi imfa ndi chiwonongeko chambiri ndipo ena onse omwe akulimbana nawo adataya kwambiri. Nthawi zambiri, "anthu aku China adayambitsa mwachangu," CSIS adatero za zoyeserera zake. Ngakhale kuti ndege za ku China zakhala zikuwombera kwambiri, asilikali a ku Taiwan adatha kulepheretsa asilikali a PLA kuti asasunthire pamtunda wawo pamene mabomba a US ndi sitima zapamadzi - mothandizidwa ndi katundu wa JSDF - akuwononga mofulumira zombo zapamadzi zaku China, kusiya asilikali a PLA ku Taiwan ali osowa.
Komabe "chitetezochi chimabwera pamtengo wokwera," gulu la polojekiti ya CSIS linamaliza. "United States ndi Japan ataya zombo zambirimbiri, ndege mazana ambiri, ndi masauzande a anthu ogwira ntchito." Zonyamulira ndege ziwiri zaku US zawonongeka kapena kuwonongedwa, ndipo mazana ambiri avulala chilichonse. "Kutayika koteroko," CSIS inamaliza, "kuwononga dziko la US kwa zaka zambiri." Ngakhale kuti asilikali a ku Taiwan apulumuka, "akuwonongeka kwambiri ndipo amasiyidwa kuti ateteze chuma chomwe chawonongeka pachilumba chopanda magetsi ndi ntchito zofunikira." China nayonso ikuvutika kwambiri: “Sitima zake zapamadzi zasokonekera, maziko a zombo zake zapamadzi athyoka, ndipo zikwi makumi a asilikali [otsekeredwa ku Taiwan] ali akaidi ankhondo.”
Gulu la CNAS, pogwiritsa ntchito mtundu wina wamasewera, lidafikira kwenikweni mfundo zomwezo. Apanso, China ikupambana kulanda nyanja ya gombe pamphepete mwa nyanja ya Taiwan koma ikulephera kupereka mphamvu zokwanira kulanda Taipei kapena kukakamiza kugonja kwa Taiwan. Mofananamo, pamene US ndi Japan apambana kuwononga zombo zambiri za PLA ndi ndege, iwonso amawononga kwambiri. Chotsatira chake, mkanganowo umafika pachimake pambuyo pa masabata oyambirira a nkhondo ndipo onse okhudzidwa amakakamizika kulingalira chisankho chomwe chilipo: kaya achite nawo nkhondo yanthawi yayitali popanda zotsatira zomveka bwino, funani mgwirizano womwe umakhala wokhutiritsa kwa aliyense, kapena kukwera. .
Njira Yowonjezera
Zofananira ngati izi nthawi zambiri sizitengera kuwerengera kwamkati kwa omwe amapanga mfundo zazikulu kapena zovuta zandale zomwe amakumana nazo. Koma muzochitika ngati izi, kulingalira koteroko sikunganyalanyazidwe. Ndiye taganizirani izi: Ataika udindo wake ndi utsogoleri wake kuti dziko la Taiwan likhale pansi pa ulamuliro wa Beijing, kodi Purezidenti Xi Jinping angatani ngati atakumana ndi chiwembu cholephera ku China ku Taiwan kapena kuyembekezera kuti padzakhala nkhondo yokhalitsa ndi kupha anthu ambiri? Kapena, pankhaniyi, Purezidenti Biden (kapena Purezidenti Trump, kapena njira ina iliyonse) angatani ngati atayang'anizana ndi kutayika kwa zonyamulira ndege ziwiri zaku US - vuto lomwe silinachitikepo kuyambira Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yapadziko Lonse - komanso chiyembekezo cha nkhondo yayitali. ndi ovulala akupitilirabe? Kodi pali ena mwa iwo amene angavomereze mtendere wochititsa manyazi kapena mavuto amene akukumana nawo? Ndipo ngakhale atatero, kodi adzaloledwa kukhalabe paudindo kwa nthaŵi yaitali? Zovuta, wina angalingalire, ndizotsutsana kwambiri.
Izi, nazonso, zimabweretsa funso la kuchuluka. Kwa akatswiri omwe adasewera utsogoleri waku China ("Red Team") mu fanizo la CNAS, panali zokayikitsa zochepa pazotsatira zomwe zingachitike. Pambuyo pakuwukira kwa PLA pazida zaku US kulephera kulepheretsa thandizo la US kwa asitikali aku Taiwan, Gulu Lofiira lidatsimikiza kuti silinachitire mwina koma kukwera, choyamba ndikumenya wamba pazigawo za US ku Hawaii, kenako, izi zidakhala zocheperako, ndikuphulika. za chida cha nyukiliya pagombe la Hawaii. Ngakhale kuti cholinga chake chinali chizindikiro - chofuna kunyengerera atsogoleri aku US ("Blue Team") kuti asiye kuchirikiza Taiwan - kuphulitsaku kumatanthauzanso kuthekera kwa kufalikira komanso zoopsa zanyukiliya. (Ngakhale masewerawa adathetsedwa panthawiyi, CNAS idawona kuti kusuntha koteroko "kukadawoneka ngati kukwera kwakukulu" ndi mbali ya US.)
"Pali chiwopsezo chakuti mkangano wamtsogolo pakati pa United States ndi China ukhoza kukhala nyukiliya," CNAS idatero. "Pamkangano womwe ukuchitika ku Taiwan, Beijing atha kuvomera kusiya mfundo yake yoti asagwiritse ntchito koyamba kutulutsa kapena kuphulitsa chida chanyukiliya pofuna kupewa kapena kuthetsa kulowererapo kwa US kunkhondo," idawonjezera. Zomwe sizinatchulidwe zinali zodziwikiratu: Kodi dziko la US liyenera kukumana ndi zopinga zazikulu - monga kutayika kwa zonyamulira ndege zamtengo wapatali - kodi Washington sangangotulutsa kapena kuphulitsa chida cha nyukiliya poyesa kuthetsa kulowererapo kwa China kunkhondo?
Sitikudziwa momwe kuyerekezera komweku, komwe kunachitika ndi mamembala a Congress pa Epulo 18, kudathetsera zisankho zowopsa izi, koma zomwe adachita zikuwonetsa kuti zosankhazo zinali zododometsa. "Ngati pali phunziro limodzi kuchokera pamasewera ankhondo a CNAS Taiwan," Woimira Ro Khanna (D-Cal.), membala wa komiti ya Nyumbayi, adalemba posachedwa, "ndikuti nkhondo ndi China ikhala yowopsa ku America ndi anthu onse. .” Mverani mawu ake akuti: “Tiyenera kuchita zonse zomwe tingathe kuti tipewe mkangano.”
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