Chitsime: TomDispatch.com
Nkhondo ku Ukraine yachititsa kale imfa ndi chiwonongeko chachikulu, ndipo mosakayikira zikubwera pamene nkhondo ikukulirakulira kummawa ndi kumwera kwa dzikolo. Asilikali masauzande ambiri ndi anthu wamba aphedwa kale kapena kuvulala, anthu pafupifupi 13 miliyoni a ku Ukraine aphedwa yokakamiza m’nyumba zawo, ndi pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu za zomangamanga za dziko zawonongeka. Choipa kwambiri, zotsatira zankhanza za nkhondoyo sizinangokhala ku Ukraine ndi Russia: njala ndi kusowa kwa chakudya ndi kuwonjezeka ku Africa, Asia, ndi Middle East monga kutulutsa tirigu kuchokera kwa alimi awiri otsogola padziko lonse lapansi alimidwa tirigu. Anthu akuvutikanso padziko lonse lapansi chifukwa cha zovuta zina zankhondoyi: kukwera mtengo kwamafuta. Ndipo komabe ngakhale mawonetseredwe a "chiwonongeko" cha nkhondo sichimayandikira kuphatikizira chomwe chingakhale chiwopsezo chachikulu kuposa onse: dziko lapansi lokha.
Nkhondo yaikulu iliyonse, ndithudi, idzawononga kwambiri chilengedwe komanso ku Ukraine. Ngakhale kuti sikunathe, kumenyana kumeneko kwachititsa anthu ambiri kuwononga malo okhala ndi minda, pamene akuukira malo osungira mafuta (Zolinga zofunika kwambiri mbali zonse ziwiri) komanso kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa mafuta pankhondo panthawi yankhondo kwatulutsa kale mpweya wochuluka kwambiri mumlengalenga. Koma ngakhale zitakhala zovulaza bwanji, izi ziyenera kuganiziridwa ngati zovulala zazing'ono poyerekeza ndi kuwonongeka kwanthawi yaitali komwe kudzachitika chifukwa cha kugwa kwa zoyesayesa zapadziko lonse zochepetsera kutentha kwa dziko.
Kumbukirani, ngakhale Russia isanalowe ku Ukraine, kuthekera koletsa kutentha kwa dziko lapansi kukwera kuposa 1.5 madigiri Celsius (madigiri 2.7 Fahrenheit) pamwamba pa chiwongoladzanja chake choyambirira chinkawoneka ngati chikuchoka. Kupatula apo, monga kafukufuku waposachedwa wa bungwe la U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) anamveketsa bwino, popanda kuchepetsedwa kwakukulu kwa mpweya wa carbon, kutentha kwapadziko lonse kuyenera kupitirira chiwerengerocho zaka zana lino zisanathe - ndi zotsatira zowopsya. "M'mawu enieni," monga Mlembi Wamkulu wa U.N. António Guterres anafotokoza potulutsa lipotilo, “zimenezi zikutanthauza mizinda ikuluikulu ya pansi pa madzi, mafunde a kutentha kosayerekezeka, mikuntho yochititsa mantha, kusoŵa kwa madzi kofalikira, ndi kutha kwa mitundu ya zomera ndi zinyama miliyoni imodzi.”
Komabe, nkhondo ya Russia isanaukire, opanga malamulo a chilengedwe ankakhulupirirabe kuti n’zotheka kupewa tsoka loopsali. Kupambana koteroko, komabe, kungafune mgwirizano waukulu pakati pa maulamuliro akuluakulu - ndipo tsopano, chifukwa cha nkhondo ku Ukraine, zomwe zikuwoneka kuti sizingatheke, mwina zaka zikubwerazi.
Geopolitics Imasiya Kuchita Zanyengo Pafumbi
N'zomvetsa chisoni kuti mikangano pakati pa mayiko, osati mgwirizano, ndiyo njira yamasiku ano. Chifukwa cha kuwukira kwa Russia komanso momwe amachitira nkhanza ku Washington ndi mizinda ina yakumadzulo, "mpikisano wamphamvu" (monga momwe Pentagon imatchulira) wadutsa malingaliro ena onse. Sikuti kuyanjana kwaukazembe pakati pa Washington, Moscow, ndi Beijing kwayimitsidwa, kupangitsa mgwirizano wapadziko lonse pakusintha kwanyengo (kapena vuto lina lililonse lapadziko lonse lapansi) kukhala kosatheka, koma mpikisano wankhondo kwambiri wakhazikitsidwa womwe sungathe kutha. zaka zikubwera.
Monga Purezidenti Biden analengeza ku Poland pa March 26: “[Ife] tinatulukiranso m’nkhondo yaikulu yaufulu, nkhondo yapakati pa demokalase ndi ulamuliro wopondereza anthu, pakati pa ufulu ndi kuponderezana, pakati pa dongosolo lozikidwa pa malamulo ndi lolamulidwa mwankhanza.” Izi sizikhala kulimbana kwakanthawi kochepa, adatsimikizira abwenzi ake a NATO. "Tiyenera kudzipereka tsopano kuti tidzakhale munkhondo iyi kwa nthawi yayitali. Tiyenera kukhala ogwirizana lero ndi mawa ndi tsiku lotsatira komanso zaka ndi zaka zikubwerazi. ”
Zaka makumi angapo zikubwera! Ndipo kumbukirani, zonena zofananira za udani wokhazikika komanso wandale zitha kumveka kuchokera kwa Purezidenti Vladimir Putin waku Russia ndi Xi Jinping waku China. "Ndife dziko lina," Putin anati m’nkhani yake ya Tsiku Lopambana la May 9. "Russia ili ndi chikhalidwe chosiyana. Sitidzasiya kukonda dziko lathu, chikhulupiriro chathu, ndi miyambo yathu.” Mofananamo, Xi adatsimikiziranso kutsimikiza mtima kwa China kutsata njira zake pazokhudza dziko lapansi komanso anachenjezedwa Washington pokana kugwiritsa ntchito mkangano waku Ukraine kuti apindule nawo pazandale.
Akafunsidwa, a Biden, Putin, Xi, ndi akuluakulu kulikonse mosakayikira angalimbikire kuti kuthana ndi kusintha kwanyengo kumakhalabe vuto lalikulu. Koma tiyeni tiyang'ane nazo, chofunikira kwambiri tsopano ndikusonkhanitsa magulu awo kuti athane ndi omwe akupikisana nawo kwanthawi yayitali. Ndipo tsimikizirani kuti izi zitha kukhala zowononga nthawi zonse, ndikusiya zinthu zina - nyengo kukhala pamwamba pamndandanda uliwonse - kuyimitsidwa mtsogolo.
Tengani, mwachitsanzo, Pempho la bajeti ya $ 773 biliyoni kuti U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) idapereka mwezi wa Epulo chaka chandalama (FY) 2023. Yang'anani pa ndalama zomwe akufuna ndipo mupeza lingaliro labwino kwambiri la zomwe Pentagon ndizofunikira kwambiri komanso, kuwonjezera, za utsogoleri wa Biden.
Malinga ndi zolemba za bajeti ya DoD, $ 56.5 biliyoni ndi kufunidwa kwa ndege zatsopano zomenyera nkhondo, $ 41 biliyoni ya zombo zatsopano, $ 34 biliyoni ya "modernization" ya zida za nyukiliya za America, $ 25 biliyoni ya chitetezo cha mizinga, $ 20 biliyoni ya zida zankhondo ndi zida zankhondo, ndi $ 135 biliyoni "kukonzeka kumenyana" ndi ntchito zophunzitsira. O inde, ndipo madola 3 biliyoni akufunidwa kuti athetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo pa asilikali a US.
M'mikhalidweyi, ndizodabwitsa kuti pempho la bajeti la Pentagon limavomereza ngakhale kuopsa kwa kutentha kwa dziko, chifukwa chosowa chidwi chomwe chinaperekedwa m'mbuyomu. Ngakhale zili choncho, ndalama zochepa zomwe zathandizira pazochitika zanyengo - makamaka zomwe zimafuna kuthana ndi zowononga mvula yamkuntho yamtsogolo pamagulu ankhondo a dziko lino - zaphimbidwa kale ndi kukonzekera mkangano womwe ungachitike ndi China ndi / kapena Russia. Monga momwe Pentagon inanenera molunjika: "Pempho la Bajeti ya Purezidenti kwa FY 2023 likuwonetsa chidwi cha DoD pakuletsa ndipo, ngati kuli kofunikira, kukana kuthekera kwa People's Republic of China (PRC) ndi nkhanza zaku Russia motsutsana ndi Allies ndi anzawo."
Kwenikweni, chinenero choterechi chimagwiritsiridwa ntchito kulungamitsa pafupifupi chilichonse chimene chili mu bajeti, kuphatikizapo ndege zonsezo, zombo, mfuti, mabomba, ndi mizinga. Mawu omwewa amagwiritsidwanso ntchito pofotokoza mishoni zomwe asitikali aku US akuphunzitsidwa kuchita. Kukambitsirana kwa mapulani a Asilikali kukulongosola motere, mwachitsanzo: “The Army’s Modernization Strategy imatheketsa ulamuliro wa dziko la Amereka kukwaniritsa zokhumba za mpikisano waukulu waulamuliro ndi mkangano waukulu waulamuliro, monga momwe kwasonyezedwera ndi ziwopsezo zosintha m’mabwalo a maseŵero a Indo-Pacific ndi ku Ulaya. ”
Ndime zotere zimavumbulutsa malingaliro akulu a nthawi ino. Kuchokera pamalingaliro a atsogoleri aku America ndi akatswiri awo ankhondo - komanso, mosakayika, monga aku Russia ndi China - kukwaniritsa zofuna za "mpikisano waukulu wamphamvu ndi mikangano yayikulu" ndiye ntchito yofotokozera za nthawi yathu ndipo ikhalabe choncho, mu Purezidenti. Mawu a Biden, "kwazaka ndi zaka zikubwerazi." M'malo oterowo, kusintha kwanyengo, monga vuto lalikulu lanthawi yathu ino, kumachepa kapena kumangotuluka pamitu yonseyi.
Kuyimitsidwa kwa International Dialogue and Cooperation
Kuchedwetsa kusintha kwa nyengo kumafuna kuchitapo kanthu pamlingo wambiri koma kungapambane kokha ngati mayiko onse avomereza kugwirira ntchito limodzi kuchepetsa mpweya wa carbon. Kukhazikitsa ndi kukwaniritsa zolinga zapadziko lonse pakuchepetsa kotereku kungatsimikizire kuti kupita patsogolo m'dziko limodzi kuli kofanana ndi kwina. Izi zinali, ndithudi, mfundo yotsogolera ya Paris Climate Summit ya December 2015, yomwe inachititsa kuti chikole ndi mayiko 196 kuti achitepo kanthu kuti achepetse kutentha kwa madigiri 1.5 Celsius.
Chaka chilichonse kuyambira pamenepo, omwe adasaina Pangano la Zanyengo la Paris akhala akukumana kuti awone momwe akuyendera (omwe akuganiza) potengera njira zenizeni zomwe cholinga chake ndi kukwaniritsa cholinga chimenecho. Msonkhano waposachedwapa - mwalamulo, ndi Msonkhano wa 26 wa Zipani (COP 26) ya International Framework Convention on Climate Change - idachitika mu Novembala watha ku Glasgow, Scotland, kukopa chidwi cha atolankhani. Ngakhale COP 26 sichinachite bwino kwambiri, chilengezo chamsonkhanowu chidapempha mayiko omwe akutenga nawo gawo kuti "gawo pansi” amagwiritsa ntchito malasha komanso kuchita zinthu zina pofuna kuchepetsa mafuta oyaka.
Anthu ambiri opezeka pamwambo wa Glasgow ananena kuti akuyembekeza kuti msonkhano wotsatira, womwe uyenera kuchitika mu Novembala uno ku Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. codify malingaliro ambiri omwe adakambidwa pa COP 26 ochepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta oyaka. Komabe, n’zomvetsa chisoni kuti dziko la China, Russia, U.S., ndi mayiko a European Union (EU) azitha kuchita zinthu mogwirizana ndi cholinga chimenecho. Dziko la Russia lawonetsa kale kuti silikufuna kuyankhula ndi mayiko akumadzulo pa zinthu zofunika izi kuwononga zokambirana cholinga chake ndi kubwezeretsa mgwirizano wa nyukiliya ndi Iran. Chifukwa chaubwenzi womwe ukukulirakulira pakati pa Beijing ndi Washington, musadalire maiko awiriwa, omwe ndi otsogola padziko lonse lapansi otulutsa mpweya, kuti agwirizane pa chilichonse chofunikira.
Mwachidule, mgwirizano wapadziko lonse wotere, womwe sunayambikepo, tsopano ukuwoneka kuti wafika pachimake, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti kuyesetsa kuti kutentha kusapitirire 1.5 digiri Celsius pafupifupi kulephera. Zowonadi, potengera momwe maubwenzi amphamvu akugwirira ntchito pano, kutsika kwa 2 digiri Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) kuyenera kudyedwa posachedwa ndi zotulukapo zatsoka zikafika pakuwonjezeka kwa chilala, chipululu, namondwe wokulirakulira, kupitilira apo. moto wowononga, ndi zotsatira zina zoopsa.
Kuphwanyidwa ndi Russia: Mafuta Opangira Mafuta Kwamuyaya
Monga chitsanzo cha komwe tikupita mu nthawi yankhondo yaku Ukraine iyi, taganizirani za kuyesayesa kwa Europe kuti athetse kudalira kwawo ku Russia kutulutsa mafuta amafuta. Ngakhale kuti mayiko a EU apangadi zolinga zazikulu kwambiri kuposa mayiko ena akuluakulu kuti achepetse kudalira kwawo mafuta oyaka mafuta m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi. odalira kwambiri pa mafuta, malasha, ndi gasi kuti agwiritse ntchito mphamvu zawo zambiri. Kuphatikiza apo, mafuta ambiri amafutawa amatumizidwa kunja, makamaka kuchokera ku Russia. Chodabwitsa, mu 2020 dziko limenelo amaperekedwa pafupifupi 43% ya EU gasi wachilengedwe, 29% ya mafuta ake, ndi 54% ya malasha ake. Tsopano, chifukwa cha kuwukira kwa Russia, EU ikufuna kuchepetsa maperesenti amenewo mpaka ziro. "Tiyenera kudziyimira pawokha ku mafuta aku Russia, malasha, ndi gasi," analengeza Ursula von der Leyen, Purezidenti wa bungwe la EU. "Sitingadalire wogulitsa yemwe amatiwopseza mwatsatanetsatane."
Mogwirizana ndi njira yotereyi, EU idalengeza mapulani "opangitsa Europe kukhala yodziyimira pawokha kumafuta aku Russia chaka cha 2030 chisanafike." Ndipo mapulani amenewo amachitadi zimakhudza kuchuluka kudalira magwero a mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa, makamaka mphepo ndi mphamvu ya dzuwa. Zoyesayesa zotere, zitenga nthawi yayitali kuti zitheke, ndipo mpaka pamenepo, ku Europe kuli kufunafuna mwachidwi kuchuluka kwa mafuta ndi gasi kuchokera kumayiko ena kuti athetse kuchepa kwamphamvu kwamagetsi (komanso kukwera mtengo kwamafuta). Chowonadi chimenecho, chapangitsa kuti omwe angakhale ogulitsa akhazikitse ndalama zochulukirachulukira pakuchulukira kwamafuta ndi gasi - zomwe zingapangitse kudzipereka kwakukulu, osati kochepa, kwanthawi yayitali pakupanga ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta oyaka.
Izi ndi zoona makamaka pankhani ya ku Ulaya gasi yochokera kunja. Mpweya wachilengedwe, womwe umakhala wocheperako kwambiri pamafuta amafuta, watchuka ku Europe m'malo mwa malasha popanga magetsi. Kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwake, komabe, kumapangitsa kuti pakhale mpweya wochuluka wa carbon ndipo kuchotsedwa kwake nthawi zambiri kumabweretsanso kutulutsa kwakukulu kwa carbon. methane, mpweya wina woopsa wotenthetsa dziko. Europe pakadali pano imadalira gasi wachilengedwe pafupifupi 25% pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zake zonse ndipo tsopano, atadzipereka kuti athetse gasi waku Russia pofika 2030, mayiko ake akufunitsitsa kupeza ena ogulitsa. Pochita izi, izi zikutanthauza kuchulukitsidwa kwa gasi wachilengedwe wa liquefied (LNG). Chifukwa ambiri opanga gasi - makamaka Australia, Nigeria, Qatar, ndi United States - ali kutali kwambiri ndi Europe kuti apereke kudzera mapaipi, adzayenera kutumiza ngati LNG. Izi, nazonso, zidzatero amafuna ntchito yomanga malo okwera mtengo otumizira LNG kunja kwa dziko ndi malo ogulitsira kunja ku Ulaya, kuchititsa mbali zonse ziwiri kudalira kwambiri kupanga gasi kwa nthawi yayitali.
Chifukwa cha a Mgwirizano wa Marichi 25 Pakati pa EU ndi United States, mwachitsanzo, dziko lino lidzakhala likupereka 50 biliyoni ya LNG ku Ulaya chaka chilichonse ndi 2030 (pafupifupi kuwirikiza kawiri ndalama zomwe zimatumizidwa mu 2020). Kuti izi zitheke, malo 10 kapena kuposerapo atsopano a LNG ayenera kumangidwa ku US komanso malo ofananirako olowera ku Europe. Ntchito zoterezi zidzawononga ndalama zokwana madola mabiliyoni ambiri, pomwe kuwonetsetsa kuti gasi wachilengedwe akupitirizabe kugwira ntchito yofunika kwambiri pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ku Ulaya (ndi kutulutsa mphamvu kwa US), mwina kwazaka zambiri.
Kupsompsona Dziko Lapansi
Zonsezi - ndipo ndi nsonga chabe ya madzi oundana - zimabweretsa mfundo imodzi: akuluakulu olamulira padziko lonse lapansi asankha kuyika mikangano yawo yapadziko lonse kuposa zovuta zina zonse, kuphatikizapo chipulumutso cha mapulaneti. Chotsatira chake n’chakuti nthaŵi zina m’zaka za m’ma 2 lino, kutentha kwa dziko n’kumene kungapitirire XNUMX digiri Celsius. Zikuoneka kuti masoka osayerekezeka adzabuka, kuphatikizapo kusefukira kwa mizinda ikuluikulu, moto wolusa woopsa, komanso kugwa kwaulimi m'madera ambiri padziko lapansi.
Izi zikutanthauza kuti, ife omwe timawonabe kutentha kwa dziko monga chinthu chofunikira kwambiri, timakumana ndi zovuta kwambiri. Inde, titha kupitiliza ziwonetsero zathu ndikukopa anthu kuti athandizire kusintha kwanyengo, podziwa kuti zoyesayesa zathu zidzagwera m'makutu ogontha ku Washington, Beijing, Moscow, ndi mizinda ikuluikulu yaku Europe kapena titha kuyamba kutsutsa lingaliro lomwelo. -Mpikisano wamphamvu womwewo uyenera kuperekedwa patsogolo pa dziko lapansi lomwe lili pachiwopsezo chakufa chotere. Inde, kuthana ndi ziwawa zaku Russia ku Ukraine ndikofunikira, monganso kuletsa kusuntha kofanana ndi China kudera la Indo-Pacific kapena dziko lathu padziko lonse lapansi. Komabe, ngati kusungunuka kwa mapulaneti kuyenera kupewedwa, malingaliro oterowo sangaloledwe kuphimba ngozi yomaliza yomwe mphamvu zazikulu ndi zazing'ono zimakumana nazo, komanso tonsefe. Kuti mukhale ndi mwayi uliwonse wochita bwino pochepetsa kutentha kwa dziko kuti zisapitirire, kayendetsedwe kazanyengo kayenera kugwetsa mgwirizano wapamwamba pakufunika kwa mpikisano wadziko - kapena ayi.
Kapenanso, ndiye kuti, titha kupsompsona Planet Earth.
Copyright 2022 Michael Klare
Michael T. Klare, a TomDispatch nthawi zonse, ndi pulofesa wa ku koleji wachisanu ndi chimodzi wa maphunziro a mtendere ndi chitetezo cha dziko lonse ku Hampshire College ndi mnzako wamkulu wochezera ku Arms Control Association. Iye ndi mlembi wa mabuku 15, atsopano omwe ndi Gehena Yonse Ikusweka: Malingaliro a Pentagon pa Kusintha kwa Nyengo. Iye ndi woyambitsa wa Komiti ya Sane US-China Policy.
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