Zakhala zoonekeratu kwa nthawi ndithu kuti kupanga yuro kunali kulakwitsa kwakukulu. Europe sichinakhalepo ndi zofunikira kuti pakhale ndalama imodzi yopambana - koposa zonse, mtundu wa mgwirizano wachuma ndi banki womwe, mwachitsanzo, umawonetsetsa kuti nyumba ikaphulika ku Florida, Washington imateteza okalamba ku chiwopsezo chilichonse chachipatala kapena banki yawo. madipoziti.
Kusiya mgwirizano wa ndalama, komabe, ndi chisankho chovuta kwambiri komanso chochititsa mantha kusiyana ndi kusalowa m'malo oyamba, ndipo mpaka pano ngakhale chuma chovuta kwambiri cha Continent chatsika mobwerezabwereza kuchoka pamphepete. Mobwereza bwereza, maboma apereka zofuna za omwe ali ndi ngongole kuti achepetse kunenepa, pomwe European Central Bank yakwanitsa kukhala ndi mantha amsika.
Koma momwe zinthu zilili ku Greece tsopano zafika zomwe zimawoneka ngati zosabwereranso. Mabanki amatsekedwa kwakanthawi ndipo boma lakhazikitsa malamulo oyendetsera ndalama - zoletsa kutuluka kwa ndalama kunja kwa dziko. Zikuoneka kuti posachedwapa boma liyenera kuyamba kulipira penshoni ndi malipiro ake m'kabokosi, makamaka kupanga ndalama zofanana. Ndipo sabata yamawa dzikolo likhala ndi referendum ngati angavomereze zofuna za "troika" - mabungwe omwe akuyimira zofuna za ngongole - chifukwa chazovuta kwambiri.
Greece iyenera kuvota "ayi," ndipo boma la Greece liyenera kukhala lokonzeka, ngati kuli kofunikira, kusiya euro.
Kuti mumvetse chifukwa chake ndikunena izi, muyenera kuzindikira kuti ambiri - osati onse, koma ambiri - zomwe mudamvapo zachinyengo zachi Greek ndi kusayanjanitsika ndi zabodza. Inde, boma la Greece linali kuwononga ndalama zoposa zomwe lingakwanitse kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2000. Koma kuyambira nthawi imeneyo yachepetsa ndalama zowononga ndalama komanso kukweza misonkho mobwerezabwereza. Ntchito zaboma zatsika kwambiri kuposa 25 peresenti, ndipo penshoni (yomwe inalidi yowolowa manja kwambiri) yachepetsedwa kwambiri. Ngati muphatikiza miyeso yonse yochepetsetsa, yakhala yochulukirapo kuti ithetse chipereลตero choyambirira ndikuchisintha kukhala chowonjezera chachikulu.
Ndiye chifukwa chiyani izi sizinachitike? Chifukwa chuma cha ku Greece chinagwa, makamaka chifukwa cha njira zochepetsera, zomwe zimakokera ndalama nazo.
Ndipo kugwa uku kunali kokhudzana kwambiri ndi yuro, yomwe idatsekereza Greece pamavuto azachuma. Milandu yotsika mtengo bwino, yomwe mayiko amapezanso chiwongola dzanja popanda kubweretsa kukhumudwa, nthawi zambiri imakhudza kutsika kwandalama kwakukulu komwe kumapangitsa kuti katundu wawo wa kunja akhale wopikisana. Izi ndi zomwe zidachitika, mwachitsanzo, ku Canada m'ma 1990, ndipo ndizomwe zidachitika ku Iceland posachedwa. Koma Greece, popanda ndalama zake, inalibe njira imeneyo.
Ndiye ndangopanga mlandu wa "Grexit" - kuchoka ku Greek kuchokera ku yuro? Osati kwenikweni. Vuto la Grexit nthawi zonse limakhala chiwopsezo cha chipwirikiti chazachuma, njira yamabanki yomwe imasokonekera chifukwa chochotsa mantha komanso bizinesi yomwe idasokonekera chifukwa chazovuta zamabanki komanso kusatsimikizika palamulo langongole. Ichi ndichifukwa chake maboma otsatizana achi Greek adavomera zofuna zochepetsetsa, ndipo chifukwa chake ngakhale Syriza, gulu lolamulira lamanzere, anali wokonzeka kuvomereza kukakamizidwa komwe kwakhazikitsidwa kale. Chomwe linapempha chinali, kwenikweni, kuyimirira pa kukhwimitsa kwina.
Koma troika analibe nazo izo. N'zosavuta kutayika mwatsatanetsatane, koma mfundo yofunikira tsopano ndi yakuti Greece yaperekedwa ndi zopereka zomwe sizingasiyanitsidwe bwino ndi ndondomeko za zaka zisanu zapitazi.
Izi ndizo, ndipo mwachiwonekere zinali zoperekedwa, zomwe Alexis Tsipras, nduna yaikulu yachi Greek, sangavomereze, chifukwa zingawononge chifukwa chake chandale. Chifukwa chake cholinga chiyenera kukhala chomuthamangitsa paudindo, zomwe mwina zidzachitika ngati ovota achi Greek akuwopa kulimbana ndi magulu ankhondo okwanira kuvota inde sabata yamawa.
Koma sayenera kutero, pazifukwa zitatu. Choyamba, tikudziwa tsopano kuti kuuma mtima kopitilira muyeso ndikumapeto: patatha zaka zisanu Greece ili poipa kuposa kale. Chachiwiri, zambiri ndipo mwina chipwirikiti chowopsa kuchokera ku Grexit chachitika kale. Mabanki atatsekedwa komanso kuwongolera ndalama kumayendetsedwa, palibe kuwonongeka kochulukirapo komwe kuyenera kuchitika.
Potsirizira pake, kuvomereza ku ultimatum ya troika kukanayimira kusiya komaliza kunamizira kudziimira kwachi Greek. Osatengeka ndi zonena kuti akuluakulu a troika ndi akatswiri aukadaulo omwe amafotokozera Agiriki osadziwa zomwe ziyenera kuchitika. Oganiza kuti ndi akatswiri aukadaulo awa kwenikweni ndi ongoyerekeza omwe anyalanyaza zonse zomwe tikudziwa za macroeconomics, ndipo akhala akulakwitsa njira iliyonse. Izi sizokhudza kusanthula, ndi za mphamvu - mphamvu za obwereketsa kukoka pulasitiki pa chuma cha Greek, chomwe chimapitirirabe malinga ngati kutuluka kwa euro kumaonedwa kuti sikungaganizidwe.
Kotero ndi nthawi yoti muthetse kusalingalira uku. Kupanda kutero, Greece idzakumana ndi zovuta zosatha, komanso kukhumudwa kopanda tanthauzo.
*Katswiri wazachuma waku America, Pulofesa wa Economics and International Affairs ku Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs ku Yunivesite ya Princeton, Pulofesa wazaka zana ku London School of Economics, komanso wolemba nkhani wa New York.
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