Kaลตirikaลตiri mbiri yamayiko yasintha kwambiri. Ikangonyozedwa ngati "narco-state," Mexico tsopano imadziwika kuti ndi "yokondedwa". Ndipo Philippines, yomwe poyamba inanenedwa kuti ndi โmunthu wodwala wa ku Asia,โ tsopano ikulandira chitamando monga โmalo owalaโ mu kontinenti.
Kodi izi ndi malongosoledwe olondola akusintha kwachuma kwa mayiko? Kapena kodi angasonyeze maganizo a makampani okhudza chuma cha padziko lonse, zomwe zikupereka chiyembekezo kwa osunga ndalama pamene mavuto azachuma akupitirirabe?
Kuchokera Pansanza Zowoneka Mpaka Chuma Choyerekeza
M'mabuku awiri akuluakulu apadziko lonse lapansi - ngati sichoncho m'manyuzipepala ake - dziko la Philippines motsogozedwa ndi Purezidenti Benigno Aquino III lakhala losangalatsa mtawuniyi.
Mwa iye kuwerenga kwambiri New York Times m'mwezi wa February watha, Keith Bradsher adawonetsa kampeni ya Aquino yolimbana ndi ziphuphu. "Akatswiri a ndale akuti akuluakulu ake adalimbana ndi kuchepetsa ziphuphu zomwe zidapangitsa kuti dziko la Philippines libwerere mmbuyo," adatero. โMโnjira ina yothandiza ya kusinthaku, dzikolo lakwanitsa kukonza misewu yowonjezereka pa ndalama zokwana madola 100 miliyoni (pafupifupi madola 2.2 miliyoni) kuposa kaleโpamene ndalama zinatayidwa kwa akuluakulu achinyengo ndi kulephera kuchita zinthuโpotsirizira pake kuthetsa vuto la malonda.โ Mwina mafunde anali atasintha.
Pafupifupi nthawi yomweyo, Karen Brooks, akulemba Zachilendo, ananena kuti sikulinso Indonesia koma dziko la Philippines, โzilumba zina za mโchigawochi, zomwe tsopano zikupereka mayiko chodabwitsa chachikulu.โ Umboni wake? โChuma cha ku Philippines chinakula ndi 6.6 peresenti mโchaka cha 2012, kupitirira zimene akatswiri azachuma ambiri ananeneratu, ndipo chinali mโgulu la chuma chimene chikukula mofulumira kwambiri padziko lonse mโtheka loyamba la 2013, chikukula ndi 7.6 peresenti.โ Komanso, "Philippine Stock Exchange Index yawonetsa kuchuluka kwambiri kuyambira Purezidenti Benigno Aquino III adalowa muudindo mu 2010, ndipo zivomerezo za ndalama zakunja zawonjezeka kuwirikiza kawiri panthawiyo. Kutsika kwa mitengo ya dziko kuli kochepa, ndalama zake zogulira ndalama zakunja ndizokwera, ndipo ngongole zake zapagulu zikutsika pang'onopang'ono. Zotsatira zake zinali zakuti mabungwe onse atatu akuluakulu oona za ngongole anakweza ngongole ya ku Philippines kuti ifike pamlingo wopezera ndalama mu 2013: chiwerengero choyamba chotere mโmbiri ya dzikolo.โ
Nkhanizi zilibe chitsutso kotheratuโzimatchula mavuto opitirizabe aumphaลตi ndi kusalingana. Koma nthawi zambiri kamvekedwe kawo kosangalatsa kamakhala kotsutsana ndi malingaliro ovuta omwe amapezeka muzofalitsa zaku Philippines.
Ndipo kunena zoona, kutamandidwa kochuluka nโkoyenera. Chochititsa chidwi kwambiri ndi msonkhano wa pulezidenti wokomera lamulo la Reproductive Health Law, utsogoleri wake wotsutsana ndi ziphuphu, komanso kukhazikika kwa ndale kwa dziko, chifukwa cha kutchuka kwa Aquino komwe kumawoneka kosatheka.
Koma wina amadabwa ngati pangakhalenso zina zomwe zikuchitika.
Kukayikira kumeneku kumabukanso kwambiri munthu akamaona kuwunika kofananako komwe kukuchitika pano ku Mexico, dziko lomwe m'mbuyomu lidalembedwa kuti ndi "boma" lopanda chiyembekezo. Mu kope la February 24 la Nthawi, Michael Crowley adakhala ndi chiyembekezo chokulirapo. โTsopano ma alarm akusinthidwa amawomba,โ analemba motero. "Pambuyo pa chaka chimodzi ali paudindo, [Pulezidenti Enrique] Peรฑa Nieto wadutsa njira yofunikira kwambiri yosinthira anthu, ndale, ndi zachuma. Mphamvu zachuma zapadziko lonse lapansi, nazonso, zasinthira kudziko lake. Yambirani kutsegulira kwa nkhokwe zamafuta ku Mexico kwa ndalama zakunja kwa nthawi yoyamba m'zaka 75, ndipo ndalama zanzeru zayamba kubetcha pamagetsi a peso. "
Kuwunika kumeneku kumagawidwa ndi osunga ndalama, monga Crowley amanenera pogwira mawu m'modzi mwa akatswiri awo. "'Pagulu lazamalonda la Wall Street, ndinganene kuti dziko la Mexico ndilomwe limakonda kwambiri pakali pano,' akutero a Ruchir Sharma, wamkulu wa misika yomwe ikubwera ku Morgan Stanley. โYachoka mโdziko limene anthu anali atasiya kukhala okondedwa.โโ
Ndemanga zowoneka bwino za mayiko awiri azachuma omwe kale ankawoneka kuti ali pafupi ndi moribund amatsogolera munthu kufunsa ngati chigamulo cha atolankhani amakampani apadziko lonse lapansi sichinangochokera pazomwe zikuchitika m'maikowa, komanso zomwe zikuchitika mokulirapo pazachuma padziko lonse lapansi. .
Magawo Atatu a Vuto la Economic Padziko Lonse
Kuti mumvetse izi, ndizothandiza kuwona zochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi. Monga tikudziwira kale, pazaka zisanu ndi chimodzi zapitazi, chuma cha padziko lonse chakhala pamavuto. Vuto limeneli lachitika mโmagawo atatu.
Mu gawo loyamba, 2008 mpaka 2010, kutsika kwachuma kwa Wall Street kudakokera chuma cha US kulowa pansi kwambiri chomwe chidapangitsa kuti ulova ukwere pafupifupi 10 peresenti. Mavuto azachuma akupitilirabe, ndipo m'zaka zitatu zapitazi, maulosi oti atha kuyambiranso akhala akulephereka. Ogula asankha kusunga ndalama m'malo mogwiritsa ntchito ndalama, kuti adzichotse pangongole yayikulu yomwe adapeza m'zaka zomwe kugwiritsa ntchito kwawo mopanda malire kunali ngati injini yachuma cha dziko.
Gawo lachiwiri, lomwe limatchedwa kuti vuto lalikulu la ngongole za chuma cha ku Ulaya, lidayamba kwambiri kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2010. Pochita mantha ndi ngongole zazikulu zomwe adapereka kwa mabizinesi ndi maboma a Kumwera ndi Kum'mawa kwa Ulaya, mabanki apadziko lonse anakana kubwereketsa ndalama zambiri mpaka atapereka ngongole. anali atabwezeredwa. Mapologalamu ochepetsa ndalama amene anatsatirapoโomwe anakhazikitsidwa osati kokha mโmaiko amene ali ndi ngongole zambiri monga Ireland ndi Greece komanso mโmayiko achuma akumadzulo kwa Ulaya monga Britain ndi Franceโanathetsa Ulaya monga njira yopulumutsira dziko lonse.
Mโchigawo chachiลตiri chimenechi, ambiri anali ndi chiyembekezo chakuti dziko lotchedwa BRICSโchidule cha Brazil, Russia, India, China, ndi South Africaโlidzadzaza malo amene Ulaya ndi United States anasiya. Ngakhale kuti chumachi chinali chitapunthwa chifukwa cha kukhazikitsidwa kwa Wall Street mu 2008-2009, adawoneka kuti ayambiranso mphamvu zawo pofika chaka cha 2010, nthawi zina chifukwa cha ndalama zolimbikitsira ndalama. Mwachitsanzo, pulogalamu yolimbikitsa ya China yokwana madola 585 biliyoni, yomwe ndi yaikulu kwambiri padziko lonse pokhudzana ndi kukula kwachuma, inalimbikitsa mayiko a BRICS ndi mayiko ambiri amene akutukuka kumene chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa zinthu zimene dziko la China likufuna kaamba ka migodi, zipangizo zopangira zinthu, ndi zopangira zinthu.
Wopambana Mphoto ya Noble Michael Spence adakhala mawu odziwika kwambiri kwa omwe adawona BRICS ngati opulumutsa kudalirana kwa mayiko. M'buku lake la 2011 analemba kuti: "Zachuma zazikulu zomwe zikutukuka zikuwonetsa kulimba mtima pamavuto komanso zotsatirapo zake." The Next Convergence. "Kukula kukubwerera ndipo kukuyandikira kale mavuto asanachitike ku Asia (Kum'mawa ndi Kumwera) komanso ku Latin America, omalizawa adathandizidwa pang'ono ndi mphepo yamkuntho yoperekedwa ndi kukula kwa Asiaโฆ. Kukula kumeneku ndi kokhazikika ngakhale pakukula kwapang'onopang'ono kwapakati pamayiko otukuka. Chifukwa chake nโchakuti kukula kwa misika yomwe ikubwera kumene kumatengedwa pamodzi ndi yaikulu komanso ikukula.โ
Spence adawona kugwedezeka uku kukhala ndi zotsatira zapadziko lonse lapansi. โKulimbikira kwakukula kwa misika yomwe ikubwera ndi chinthu chabwino kwambiri pachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi pakukula kwathunthu komanso chifukwa cha zotsatira zabwino zomwe zidzakhale nazo kumayiko ang'onoang'ono omwe akutukuka kumene. Komanso, izo mafuta kusintha structural mu chuma patsogolo,โ iye analemba.
Bukhu la Spence linali lisanagunde mashelufu ogulitsa mabuku mu 2012 pomwe mayiko a BRICS adayamba kufooka, kulengeza gawo lachitatu lamavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi. Panthawiyo, kukula kwachuma chaku China kudatsika kuchokera pa 11 mpaka 7 peresenti. Kutsika kwakukulu kunachitika pakati pa anzawo aku China a BRICS. Chaka chino, dziko la Brazil likuyembekezeka kukula ndi 1.6 peresenti yokha, zomwe zimapangitsa 2014 kukhala chaka chachinayi chotsatira cha kukula kochepa kwambiri.
Pakatikati pa vutoli panali mfundo yakuti maiko ambiri a BRICS sanathe kusiya kudalira misika ya U.S. Katswiri waku China Yu Yong Ding anafotokoza mwachidule kukula kwa kutsikako pamene ananena kuti "chitukuko cha China chatsala pang'ono kuthetsa mphamvu zake."
Kuwonjezeka kwa Zolingalira Zamakampani
Kwa mabizinesi apadziko lonse lapansi, atolankhani, ndi mabungwe amaphunziro omwe akhala akulumikizana kuti aganize kuti kudalirana kwapadziko lonse lapansi ndikwabwino komanso kosasinthika - ndi zovuta zomwe zimaganiziridwa koma zovuta zomwe zikuyenda bwino padziko lonse lapansi - chiyembekezo chakuyenda kwanthawi yayitali padziko lonse lapansi chakhala chovutitsa kwambiri komanso chovuta kuvomereza.
Chifukwa chake ndizosangalatsa kufunafuna "misika yomwe ikubwera" yatsopano.
M'nkhaniyi, chuma chomwe chikanangoyenera kugwedezeka nthawi zina chakhala chuma "chotentha". Pazachuma kufunafuna malo oti atayirepo ndi kulingalira za kuchuluka kwake kowonjezera, chuma chotere ndi malo osungiramo ndalama. Kwa akatswiri aukadaulo, ophunzira, komanso zida zamabizinesi zomwe zimayendetsedwa ndi makampani monga World Bank ndi Word Trade Organisation, chuma ichi chikhoza kukhala njira zatsopano zopititsira patsogolo chuma chapadziko lonse lapansi kuchoka pazaka zisanu ndi chimodzi zazovuta komanso zovuta.
Pafupifupi zaka ziwiri zapitazo, pamene zinaonekeratu kuti BRICS siidadaliridwa kuti ipititse patsogolo kukula kwa dziko, osunga ndalama adayambitsa mawu akuti CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, ndi South Africa) kuti asonyeze zomwe amawona ngati zatsopano zatsopano. kupanga magulu. Kuyambira pamenepo, Egypt ndi Turkey zatsika pamndandanda chifukwa cha kusakhazikika kwandale. Pakadali pano, Indonesia ndi Vietnam zapeza chidwi chochepa - chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwadziko komanso zopinga zachitukuko ku Indonesia, komanso kukwera kwa malipiro komanso kuphulika kwanyumba ku Vietnam.
Mexico ndi Philippines, komabe, akuyembekezeka kuyika mphamvu zatsopano m'gululi.
Kulimbana ndi Zowona Zowawa
Koma kodi ziyembekezo za Mexico ndi Philippines zokhazikitsidwa ndi likulu lazachuma, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimasinthasintha pakati pa kukhumudwa ndi chisangalalo, ndikugwira ntchito kwakanthawi kochepa kwambiri? Kodi pali china chake cholimba kuposa momwe mayiko akukulirakulira?
Kuyimitsidwa kwina kwa zoyembekeza kungakhale koyenera.
Choyamba, ndizothandiza kuzindikira zomwe zimafanana. Ngakhale ali ndi zovuta zina, zodziwikiratu kukhala zogulitsira mankhwala ku Mexico, maiko awiriwa ali ndi zopinga zofananira pakukula kosalekeza.
Maiko onse awiriwa adawonongeka kwambiri chifukwa cha ndondomeko zoyendetsera kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka anthu. Onsewa alinso ndi magawo aulimi omwe awonongeka chifukwa cha kumasulidwa kwa malonda - ku Philippines ndi World Trade Organisation. Mgwirizano pa Agriculture, ndi Mexico ndi Mgwirizano wa Ufulu Wamalonda waku North America (NAFTA)-pamene kusintha kwaulimi kwayimitsidwa ku Philippines ndipo kusinthidwa ku Mexico. Kuphatikiza apo, magulu ofunafuna lendi amalamulira maiko onse awiri, ndi magawo okhazikika omwe ali ndi anthu ochepa - monga Carlos Slim, mkulu wa zamatelefoni ku Mexico yemwe anali munthu wolemera kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi mu 2012, ndi Manny Pangilinan, womanga nyumba wankhanza yemwe wabweretsa dziko la Philippines. matelefoni ndi magawo amagetsi omwe ali pansi paulamuliro wa banja la Salim waku Indonesia.
Zomwe zimatuluka kuchokera kuzinthu zowawa izi ndi mayiko omwe ali ndi umphawi wadzaoneni ndi kusalingana. Anthu 20 pa 2015 alionse amakhala osauka kwambiri ku Mexico, ndipo pafupifupi 48.2 peresenti amakhala ku Philippines. Onse awiri adzayesa kuyesa kwa Millennium Development Goal (MDG) kuti achepetse ndi theka chiwerengero cha anthu omwe ali muumphawi pofika chaka cha 43. Pankhani ya kusalingana, onse ali ndi mbiri yowopsya, ndi Gini coefficient - muyeso wabwino kwambiri wa kusiyana pakati pa ndalama zomwe zilipo. zovuta XNUMX ku Mexico ndi XNUMX ku Philippines. Ndi mphamvu zogulira m'nyumba zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira, makamaka chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa misika yotumiza kunja ya Kumpoto ndi BRICS mkati mwa kuyimitsidwa kwapadziko lonse lapansi, ziwerengerozi sizikuwonetsa kuthekera komanga ndi kusunga msika wosinthika wamkati, komanso kubweretsa kuchira padziko lonse lapansi.
Ndiye kodi dziko la Mexico ladzipeza kukhala "lokondedwa," ndipo kodi dziko la Philippines liyenera kuonedwa ngati lowala?
Mosakayikira, Purezidenti Aquino ndi Purezidenti Peรฑa Nieto apita patsogolo pakusintha chuma chamayiko awo. Koma Philippines ndi Mexico ali ndi ulendo wautali kuti ayenerere kukhala "misika yatsopano yotentha." Aura yomwe yawazungulira pakali pano ikuwonetsa zochepa zenizeni za chuma chawo kusiyana ndi zongopeka za ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi komanso ogwirizana ndi kusakhazikika kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi.
Wolemba nkhani wa Foreign Policy In Focus Walden Bello waposachedwa ndi Maimidwe Omaliza a Capitalism: Deglobalization in the Age of Austerity (London: Zed, 2013).
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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