George W. Bush atalowa mu White House kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2001, dzikoli linali kuvutika ndi "vuto lamphamvu" lomwe linadza chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo kwa mafuta, kusowa kwa gasi m'madera, ndi kuzimitsa kwa magetsi ku California. Chodziwika kwambiri chinali kuchepa kwa gasi wopangidwa ndi Enron Corporation panjira yopezera phindu lalikulu. Poyankha, Purezidenti adalonjeza kuti apanga mphamvu zamakono kukhala imodzi mwazovuta zake. Komabe, kuwonjezera pa kupereka maganizo oti ayambitse ntchito yokumba mafuta ku Alaskaโs Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, iye sanathandize kwenikweni kuthetsa vuto la mphamvu za magetsi mโdzikolo mโzaka zinayi zoyambirira ali paudindo. Mwamwayi kwa iye, mphamvu zinthu bwino pang'ono monga kugwa kwachuma dziko ankavutika maganizo, zomwe zinachititsa kutsika kwakanthawi mitengo mafuta. Koma tsopano, pamene Bush akuyandikira nthawi yake yachiwiri paudindo, vuto lina lamphamvu latsala pang'ono - lomwe silingathe kusokoneza lokha.
Kuyambika kwa vuto lamagetsi latsopanoli kudadziwika koyamba mu Januware 2004, pomwe Royal Dutch/Shell - imodzi mwamakampani otsogola padziko lonse lapansi - idawulula kuti idachulukitsa nkhokwe zake zamafuta ndi gasi pafupifupi 20%, ukonde wofanana ndi 3.9 biliyoni. migolo yamafuta kapena kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwapachaka kwa China ndi Japan kuphatikizidwa. Chizindikiro china cha zovuta chinabwera mwezi umodzi wokha pambuyo pake, pamene a New York Times adawulula kuti akatswiri ofufuza zamphamvu aku America tsopano akukhulupirira kuti Saudi Arabia, dziko lopanga mafuta kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, yakokomeza mphamvu yake yopangira mafuta m'tsogolomu ndipo posachedwapa ikumana ndi vuto lalikulu la minda yake yakale yomwe yatukuka kwambiri. Ngakhale akuluakulu a US Department of Energy (DoE) adanenetsa kuti zomwe zikuchitikazi sizikuwonetsa kuchepa kwanthawi yayitali kwa magetsi padziko lonse lapansi, machenjezo awonjezeka kuchokera kwa akatswiri amphamvu za kubwera kwa mafuta "pamwamba" - pomwe minda yamafuta odziwika padziko lonse lapansi ipeza zokolola zambiri zokhazikika ndipo ziyamba kuchepa kwanthawi yayitali, kosasinthika.
Kuyandikira kwa nthawi yamafuta ochulukirapo kwadzetsa mkangano ndi kusagwirizana pakati pa akatswiri, ndipo mutuwu wayamba kuzindikirika ndi anthu. Mabuku angapo onena zamafuta apamwamba - Kutuluka mu Gasi ndi David Goodstein, Mapeto a Mafuta ndi Paul Roberts, ndi Phwando Latha Wolemba Richard Heinberg, mwa ena - adawonekera m'miyezi yaposachedwa, ndi filimu yofananira, Mapeto a Suburbia, yapeza anthu ambiri mobisa. Monga ngati kuvomereza kuzama kwa mkanganowu, a Wall Street Journal lipoti mu September kuti umboni wa kuchepa kwa mafuta padziko lonse lapansi sungathe kunyalanyazidwa. Ngakhale palibe amene anganene motsimikiza kuti zomwe zachitika posachedwa zikuwonetsa kubwera kwa mafuta ochulukirapo, sipangakhale kukayikira kuti kuchepa kwapadziko lonse lapansi kudzakhala kofala kwambiri mtsogolo.
Komanso umboni wa kuchepa kwa mafuta m'thupi si chizindikiro chokha cha vuto la mphamvu. Chofunikanso kwambiri ndikuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa kufunikira kwa mphamvu kuchokera kumayiko otukuka kumene - makamaka China. Posachedwapa mu 1990, mayiko akale otukuka (kuphatikiza yomwe kale inali Soviet Union) anali ndi pafupifupi magawo atatu mwa anayi a mafuta ogwiritsidwa ntchito padziko lonse lapansi. Koma kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa mafuta a petroleum mโmaiko otukuka kumene kukukulirakulira kwambiriโkuลตirikiza katatu mlingo wa maiko otukuka kumeneโkuti posachedwapa akuyembekezeredwa kukokera ngakhalenso.
Kuti akwaniritse zosowa zamakasitomala awo okalamba ndikukwaniritsa kukwera kwa kufunikira kochokera kumayiko omwe akutukuka kumene, opanga mafuta akuluakulu akuyenera kulimbikitsa kupanga mwachangu kwambiri. Malinga ndi DoE, mafuta okwana padziko lonse lapansi akuyenera kukula ndi migolo pafupifupi 44 miliyoni patsiku kuyambira pano mpaka 2025 - chiwonjezeko cha 57% - kuti akwaniritse zomwe dziko likufuna. Kuwonjezeka kumeneku kukuyimira kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa mafuta, omwe akufanana ndi kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa dziko lonse mu 1970, ndipo nkovuta kulingalira kumene onsewo adzachokera (makamaka kusonyeza kutsika kwapadziko lonse kwa kutulutsa tsiku ndi tsiku). Ngati, monga zikuwonekera, makampani opanga mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi awonetsa kuti sangathe kukwaniritsa zofunikira zapadziko lonse lapansi, mpikisano pakati pa ogula akuluakulu kuti athe kupeza zinthu zomwe zatsalayo ukukulirakulira komanso kuvutitsa.
Pofuna kusokoneza zinthu, maiko ambiri omwe boma la Bush likuwona kuti atha kugulitsa mafuta owonjezera, kuphatikiza Angola, Azerbaijan, Colombia, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, ndi Venezuela, asakazidwa ndi mikangano yamitundu ndi zipembedzo. kapena amakanthidwa ndi mafunde amphamvu odana ndi America. Ngakhale mayikowa ali ndi nkhokwe zokwanira zosagwiritsidwa ntchito kuti apititse patsogolo zokolola, malinga ngati zikukhala zosakhazikika, ziwonjezeko zomwe zikufunidwa sizingawonekere. Kupatula apo, kuwonjezeka kulikonse kwamphamvu za tsiku ndi tsiku kumafuna ndalama zambiri pazomangamanga zatsopano - ndalama zomwe sizingachitike m'maiko omwe akudwala matenda osatha. Nthawi yabwino, kupanga m'maiko otere kumakhalabe kosalala kapena kukwera mosasamala; poyipa kwambiri, monga ku Iraq masiku ano, zitha kuwopseza kugwa. Zowonadi, kulimbikira kwa zipolowe zandale m'maiko ngati Angola, Colombia, Iraq, Nigeria, ndi Venezuela kwachititsa kuti mitengo ya mafuta achuluke ikuwonekerabe, ngakhale kutsika pang'ono kwaposachedwa, pamapampu oyandikana nawo.
Ngati pali chilichonse, kuthekera kwa mikangano m'maiko oterowo kuyenera kukulirakulira pamene kufunikira kwa mafuta awo kukukulirakulira. Chifukwa chake ndi chosavuta. Kuchulukirachulukira kwamafuta amafuta m'maiko omwe ali osauka kumakulitsa kusiyana pakati pa omwe ali nawo ndi omwe alibe - kugawikana komwe nthawi zambiri kumayenderana ndi mafuko ndi zipembedzo - ndikukulitsa mikangano yandale zamkati pakugawa kwamafuta. Chifukwa chakuti chuma chopangidwa chifukwa cha kupanga mafuta nโchambiri, ndiponso chifukwa chakuti ndi atsogoleri ochepa okha amene akufuna kusiya udindo wawo, mikangano yamkati yamtundu wotereyi imayambitsa mikangano yachiwawa pakati pa opikisana nawo paudindo wa mayiko.
Nthawi zambiri, mikangano iyi imatha kukhala ngati kuwukira kwamafuta omwewo, ndikuyika pachiwopsezo kupezeka kwa mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi. Monga momwe zasonyezedwera ku Colombia ndi Iraq, kumene kuwukira kwa mapaipi amafuta ndi malo opopera kwakhala kochitika pafupifupi tsiku ndi tsiku, zomangamanga zotere - zotambasulidwa pamtunda wamakilomita ambiri m'nkhalango kapena m'chipululu - zikuyimira chiwopsezo chowopsa komanso choyitanitsa uchigawenga. Sikuti kuukira kotereku kumalepheretsa boma lomwe lilipo ndalama zambiri, komanso kumayambitsa nkhanza ku United States ndi mabungwe akuluakulu amitundu yosiyanasiyana omwe akuwoneka kuti ndi omwe amayambitsa mavuto ambiri omwe akutukuka kumene.
Popeza kufunikira kwa mafuta kumachulukirachulukira kuposa kupezeka komanso kusokonekera komwe kukufalikira m'malo opangira zinthu zazikulu, kusowa kwapadziko lonse lapansi komanso kukwera kwamitengo kukuyenera kukhala chizolowezi, osatinso chimodzimodzi. Moyenera, United States ingathe kulipira zoperewera zilizonse pakupezeka kwa mafuta padziko lonse lapansi powonjezera kudalira magwero ena amphamvu. Popanga magetsi, mwachitsanzo, nthawi zambiri zimakhala zotheka kusintha kuchokera ku malasha kupita ku gasi wachilengedwe ndikubwereranso. Koma mafuta athu ambiri amagwiritsidwa ntchito pamayendedwe - makamaka pamagalimoto amagetsi, magalimoto, mabasi, ndi ndege - ndipo, chifukwa cha izi, mafuta alibe zolowa m'malo mosavuta. Zowonadi, talinganiza chuma chathu komanso gulu lathu pakupezeka kwa mafuta otsika mtengo komanso ochulukirapo kotero kuti tilibe zida zothana ndi kupereลตera ndi kusokonekera kwazinthu zomwe zitha kukhala zachilendo m'zaka zikubwerazi.
Apa ndipamene ntchito ya kayendetsedwe ka Bush iyenera kubwera kuti iwunikenso. Poyankha vuto lamphamvu lamphamvu la 2001, Purezidenti adasankha gulu la National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG), lotsogozedwa ndi Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti Dick Cheney, kuti liwunike zovuta zamphamvu zaku America ndikupeza mayankho oyenera. NEPDG idapereka lipoti lake lomaliza, la National Energy Policy (yomwe imadziwikanso kuti Cheney Report), mu May, 2001. Momwe gululo linafikira pakuwunika kwake komaliza ndi nkhani yongopeka, popeza olamulira anakana kufotokoza zomwe akuganiza poyera, koma mfundo zake ndizosatsutsika: m'malo mosungira nkhawa. ndi chitukuko chofulumira cha magwero a mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa, lipotilo likufuna kuwonjezeka Kudalira kwa US ku petroleum. Ndipo chifukwa kupanga mafuta akunyumba kukucheperachepera, kukwera kulikonse kwamafuta aku America kumafuna kudalira kwambiri mafuta obwera kunja.
Poyesa kusocheretsa anthu za momwe timadalira mafuta, Cheney Report inapempha kuti mphamvu za US ziwonjezere "kudziimira" pogwiritsira ntchito nkhokwe za mafuta zomwe sizinagwiritsidwe ntchito za Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) ndi madera ena achipululu otetezedwa. Koma ANWR imangokhala ndi mafuta okwanira kuti apatse dziko lino (makamaka) migolo 1 miliyoni patsiku kwa zaka pafupifupi 15-20, kachigawo kakang'ono ka migolo 20 miliyoni yamafuta owonjezera omwe adzafunika kuti awonjezere zotuluka m'nyumba mu 2025. Zomwe izi zikusonyeza ndikuti kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa mphamvu zowonjezerazi ziyenera kupezedwa kuchokera kumayiko akunja. Kuti tipeze mphamvu zonse zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja, Cheney Report ikupempha Purezidenti ndi anzake akuluakulu kuti ayike patsogolo kwambiri pakupeza mafuta owonjezera kuchokera kwa opanga ku Persian Gulf, mtsinje wa Caspian Sea, Africa, ndi Latin America - ndiko kuti, kuchokera kumadera. makamaka kutengeka ndi kusakhazikika komanso anti-Americanism.
Zotsatira zake, timadalira kwambiri mafuta akunja mu 2004 kuposa momwe tinaliri mu 2001, ndipo zizindikiro zonse zimasonyeza kuti kudalira kumeneku kudzadziwika kwambiri panthawi yachiwiri ya Bush. Inde, olamulira apereka ndalama zochepa pakupanga ma cell amafuta opangidwa ndi haidrojeni ndi zida zina zatsopano zamagetsi; koma, pamiyezo yamakono yachitukuko, matekinoloje atsopanowa sangatsimikizire kuti angathe kulowetsa mafuta pamlingo waukulu pazaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi. Izi zikutanthauza kuti tidzakumana ndi vuto lathu lamphamvu lomwe likubwera ayi njira zobwezera zomwe zimawoneka bwino. Tikukhalabe mumsampha wodalira mafuta ochokera kunja. M'kupita kwanthawi, chotsatira chokhacho chotheka cha izi chidzakhala vuto lokhazikika ndi kulandidwa.
Liti, ndipo mumtundu wotani, United States ilowa m'vuto lamphamvu lomwe likubwera silingadziwiketu. Mwina izi zidzakhumudwitsidwa ndi kulanda boma ku Nigeria, nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Venezuela, kapena mkangano pakati pa akalonga akuluakulu a m'banja lachifumu la Saudi (mwina chifukwa cha imfa yomwe ikubwera ya King Fahd). Kapena zingakhale chifukwa cha uchigawenga waukulu kapena zochitika zoopsa za nyengo. Mulimonse momwe zingakhalire, mphamvu zathu zomwe zilipo, zomwe zatambasulidwa kale mpaka malire ake, sizidzatha kumenya nkhonya yayikulu ngati iyi popanda kusintha kwakukulu ndi kupweteka - kapena kuipiraipira. Ngakhale Purezidenti Bush akuyenera kuyankha pavuto lamphamvu lamagetsi, monga momwe adachitira m'mbuyomu, ndikuyitanitsanso kubowola ku ANWR komanso kutsitsimulanso kwanyengo zaku US zachilengedwe, palibe chomwe wapereka mpaka pano chomwe chikuwonetsa njira yotulutsira nthawi zonse. zovuta.
Michael Klare ndi pulofesa wa maphunziro a mtendere ndi chitetezo cha dziko lonse ku Hampshire College ku Amherst, Mass., Ndipo wolemba, posachedwapa, wa Magazi ndi Mafuta: Zowopsa ndi Zotsatira za Kudalira Kwa Petroleum Kukukula kwa America (The American Empire Project, Metropolitan Books).
Copyright C2004 Michael Klare
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