Sajrone Pemilu, pengamat Rusia ora bisa gagal kanggo sok dong mirsani nomer ageng saka Pelanggaran, nanging padha menehi roso kesengsem sing padha ndeleng mung ing sisih kulon Ukraina, ngendi Pemilu padha mestine rigged ing sih Yushchenko. Ing kasunyatan, Ukraina ora kaya Rusia minangka federasi nanging negara kesatuan, ing ngendi administrasi lokal tundhuk karo presiden. Sadurungé pemungutan suara putaran kapindho, Présidhèn Kuchma nggantèkaké kepala pamaréntahan ing provinsi-provinsi ing ngendi oposisi menang. Kanggo tingkat sing signifikan, pelanggaran kasebut ndadekake panguwasa ora mung ing sisih wétan, nanging uga ing sisih kulon.
The Ukrainian elections were no longer like those in Russia, but like somewhere in Nigeria, featuring violence, the exclusion of observers, and control by clan chieftains over the actions of voters on ‘their’ territory. Yanukovich finally gained the number of votes he needed, but his victory was Pyrrhic. Not only did the opposition take to the streets, but it had obvious moral and political grounds for refusing to accept the election results.
Tesis babagan perjuangan oposisi pro-Amerika nglawan elit politik pro-Moskow ora bisa ditliti, lan uga pernyataan sing terus-terusan babagan tawuran antarane sisih kulon sing nganggo basa Ukrainia lan sisih wétan sing nganggo basa Rusia. Yushchenko ora bisa dipungkiri minangka politisi pro-Amerika. Nanging padha bisa ngandika saka panguwasa saiki saka republik Ukrainia. Saiki Presiden Leonid Kuchma, bebarengan karo Perdana Menteri Viktor Yanukovich, ngirim pasukan Ukraina menyang Irak. Pimpinan loro sing padha ngatur krisis absurd ing hubungan Rusia-Ukraina liwat bendungan ing jejere Pulo Tuzla sing cilik. Sauntara kuwi, sawetara politisi oposisi ngritik kiriman pasukan, uga komunis, sing ora gelem ndhukung salah siji pihak ing konflik saiki.
American financial support for Yushenko is quite visible. However one can easily discover that most sponsors who contributed to his campaign also contributed generously to Kerry’s campaign (Soros, National Democratic Institute etc.). Republican funding for Yushenko was almost symbolic. There was also a lot of Western European and especially German money. But ironically, some of the biggest contributions came from Russia – notably from those business groups who were not satisfied by privatization deals offered by Yanukovich and expected to rerun the process. These expectations were not unjustified.
Kaya palsu minangka upaya kanggo misahake masyarakat Ukrainia ing garis linguistik. Kiev, ibukutha, minangka kubu oposisi, sanajan basa sing umume dirungokake ing dalan-dalan yaiku basa Rusia. Demonstrasi massa ditindakake ing Kharkov, sing dianggep minangka pusat budaya Rusia ing Ukraina. Tumindak kanggo ndhukung panguwasa sing diorganisir ing Donetsk lan kutha-kutha industri liyane kaya demonstrasi jaman Soviet, ing ngendi wong-wong didorong nganggo tongkat. Sing ngomong utamane pejabat serikat pekerja lan pejabat administratif, dene para pekerja njupuk kesempatan pertama menyang omah. Senadyan claims sing ewu penambang bakal digawa menyang Kiev kanggo perang karo oposisi, panguwasa ngatur kanggo sijine mung sawetara rolas gangster Donetsk ing helm penambang gerah ', bebarengan karo klompok Cossacks mewah.
Paling ora pimpinan Rusia bisa diarani anti-Amerika utawa anti-Kulon. Ora liya Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin kanthi umum ngumumake dhukungan kanggo George Bush ing pemilihan AS November. Ing wektu sing padha, nalika televisi Moskow ngukum campur tangan Amerika ing Ukraina, Menteri Pertahanan Sergey Ivanov ngrembug karo wartawan babagan kemungkinan ngirim senjata menyang Irak kanggo pasukan Irak sing dikuwasani AS, lan uga ngirim ahli militer. Jerman, Prancis lan negara-negara Eropa liyane nolak panjaluk Amerika jinis iki.
It is also unclear how Russia in 2004 might ‘lose’ Ukraine. After all, our own state long ago recognised Ukrainian independence. If we are talking not of control but of Russian political, moral and cultural influence on the neighbouring republic, it would be hard to think of any worse means for achieving this than what the Kremlin has done in recent months. If someone had set out deliberately to undermine Russia’s position in Ukrainian society, he or she could scarcely have achieved more than the Kremlin administration has managed through its work with Kuchma and Yanukovich. The Kremlin has not only shocked everyone with its crude and unconcealed meddling in the affairs of a sovereign state, but more importantly, has done this so ineptly that it has finished up harming its own cause.
Totoan ing perjuangan politik ing Ukraina gedhe tenan, kalebu kanggo Kremlin. Nanging totoan iki ora ana hubungane karo kapentingan nasional, utawa karo kontes sing saiki wis suwe antarane komunis Timur lan borjuis Kulon. Klan semi-kriminal sing ing dalan privatisasi ngrebut kontrol ora mung ing industri ing Ukraina wétan, nanging kanggo tingkat pinunjul saka populasi uga, duwe hubungan cedhak karo kelompok birokrasi-oligarki sing terus sway ing Moscow.
Ibukutha Rusia miwiti ekspansi gedhe ing Ukraina. Dhiskusi wis diwiwiti babagan tuku perusahaan telekomunikasi, pabrik metalurgi, lan uga pabrik bir. Klan Donetsk sing wis nyawiji ing sekitar Yanukovich kudu nyekel kekuwatan, kanggo mesthekake yen kesepakatan sing direncanakake bakal lancar.
Ora ana paradoks ing kene. Krisis elit sing ngatur nduweni karakter obyektif, cukup kapisah saka intrik Washington. Kabeh sing ditindakake diplomasi AS yaiku kanthi realistis nimbang kahanan sing wis ana, banjur, tinimbang njupuk sikap sing jelas minangka sisih sing kalah, milih mitra anyar lan luwih janjeni saka antarane oposisi. Sing penting kanggo AS ing kasus kasebut yaiku kanggo mesthekake yen pimpinan anyar dadi kuwasa, kebijakan manca negara kasebut tetep kaya sadurunge. Ing tembung liyane, Washington ndhukung revolusi demokratis kanthi tujuan siji: kanggo nggedhekake potensial radikal.
Many of the party’s supporters acknowledge that this situation is lamentable. Hence we read on a leading communist website: ‘The working class and its party have been unable to act as an independent political force, as an organised, conscious subject of the historical process. It has not been communists who have led the working class, but the bourgeoisie with its candidates and organisations. This is simply a fact. Meanwhile, the communists have been driven onto the sidelines of the struggle, forced into the position of onlookers, incapable of influencing the outcome in any way.’ (http:///www.communist.ru/lenta/index.php?10168).
Sapa wae sing menang, salah sijine korban utama krisis Ukraina yaiku Vladimir Putin. Kanthi kabuka ndhukung rezim Ukrainia, nandur modal ing jumlah gedhe saka dhuwit, lan ngirim tentara kabèh penasehat lan tutor politik, Kremlin risked mung entuk masalah. Sanadyan Yanukovich menang, keprigelan utamane yaiku mbangun maneh hubungan karo Barat. Ing patemon karo Uni Eropa ing Den Haag, Putin kudu nyoba mbenerake awake dhewe, ilang panguwasa pungkasan. Sing paling penting, sadurunge wong-wong dhewe, angkatan bersenjata lan polisi ing Rusia, dheweke maneh nuduhake awake dhewe dadi politisi sing ringkih lan ora kompeten. Lan ing Rusia, sing ringkih ora menang.