Sous: TomDispatch.com
On March 26th, the coronavirus accomplished what no foreign adversary has been able to do since the end of World War II: it forced an American aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, to suspend patrol operations and shelter in port
Photo by Alex Moore Photography/Shutterstock.com
On March 26th, the coronavirus accomplished what no foreign adversary has been able to do since the end of World War II: it forced an American aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, to suspend patrol operations and shelter in port. By the time that ship reached dock in Guam, hundreds of sailors had been infected with the disease and nearly the entire crew had to be evacuated. As news of the crisis aboard the TR (tankou veso a li te ye) te vin piblik, pawòl soti sa omwen 40 lòt bato de gè ameriken, ki gen ladan konpayi asirans lan USS Ronald Reagan ak destriktè misil gide a USS Kidd, yo te soufri ak epidemi Covid-19. Okenn nan sa yo apwoche echèl la nan TR and, by June, the Navy was again able to deploy most of those ships on delayed schedules and/or with reduced crews. By then, however, it had become abundantly clear that the long-established U.S. strategy of relying on large, heavily armed warships to project power and defeat foreign adversaries was no longer fully sustainable in a pandemic-stricken world.
Menm jan marin la t ap aprann ke preferans li pou gwo bato ki gen gwo ekipaj - tipikman chaje nan ti espas pou peryòd tan ki pwolonje - t ap byen literalman pwouve yon estrateji defen (youn nan maren ki enfekte sou latè a). TR mouri nan konplikasyon nan Covid-19), Lame a ak Kò Marin yo te fè yon dekouvèt konparab. Estrateji favorize yo nan patenarya ak fòs lokal yo nan pati byen lwen nan mond lan tankou Irak, Japon, Kowet, ak Kore di Sid, kote pwoteksyon lokal kont maladi enfeksyon pa t 'kapab toujou konte sou (oswa, tankou nan Okinawa dènyèman, Washington’s allies couldn’t count on the virus-free status of American forces), was similarly flawed. With U.S. and allied troops increasingly forced to remain in isolation from each other, it is proving difficult to conduct the usual joint training-and-combat exercises and operations.
Nan kout tèm, ofisyèl defans Ameriken yo te reponn a revers sa yo ak divès mezi stopgap, ki gen ladan voye bonbadè B-1, B-2, ak B-52 ki gen kapasite nikleyè nan misyon "montre-fòs" alontèman sou zòn konfli tankou Lanmè Baltik (panse: Larisi) oswa Lanmè Sid Lachin nan (panse: Lachin, nan kou). "Nou gen kapasite ak kapasite pou bay dife alontèm nenpòt kote, nenpòt lè, epi nou ka pote gwo pouvwa dife - menm pandan pandemi an," ensiste pou l di Jeneral Timothy Ray, kòmandan Air Force Global Strike Command, apre plizyè operasyon sa yo.
Nan yon lòt siy dezespwa taktik, sepandan, marin la te bay lòd pou ekipaj la kraze TR out of lockdown in May so that the ship could participate in long-scheduled, China-threatening multi-carrier exercises in the western Pacific. A third of its crew, however, had to be left in hospitals or in quarantine on Guam. “We’re executing according to plan to return to sea and fighting through the virus is part of that,” te di nouvo kòmandan bato a, Carlos Sardiello, kòm la TR prepared to depart that Pacific island. (He had been named captain on April 3rd after a letter the carrier’s previous skipper, Brett Crozier, wrote to superiors complaining of deteriorating shipboard health conditions was leaked to the media and the senior Navy leadership revoke li.)
Such stopgap measures, and others like them now being undertaken by the Department of Defense, continue to provide the military with a sense of ongoing readiness, even aggressiveness, in a time of Covid-related restrictions. Were the current pandemic to fade away in the not-too-distant future and life return to what once passed for normal, they might prove adequate. Scientists are warning, however, that the coronavirus is likely to persist for a long time and that a vaccine — even if successfully developed — may not prove effective forever. Moreover, many virologists Kwè that further pandemics, potentially even more lethal than Covid-19, could be lurking on the horizon, meaning that there might never be a return to a pre-pandemic “normal.”
Se konsa, ofisyèl Pentagòn yo te fòse yo rekonèt ke fondasyon militè yo nan estrateji mondyal Washington la - patikilyèman, deplwaman pi devan fòs konba nan koperasyon sere ak fòs alye yo - ka vin envalid. An rekonesans de nouvo reyalite difisil sa a, stratèj ameriken yo ap kòmanse elabore yon plan totalman nouvo pou lagè alavni, yon fason Ameriken: youn ki ta fini, oswa omwen redwi anpil, yon depandans sou dè santèn nan ganizon lòt bò dlo ak gwo bato de gè ekipe, konte olye sou robo asasen, yon myriad de veso san ekipe, ak baz lanmè.
Bato san maren
An reyalite, plan Marin a pou ranplase gwo veso ki gen ekipe ak ti veso ki pa ekipe te sèlman akselere pa epidemi pandemi an. Plizyè faktè had already contributed to the trend: modern warships like nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and missile-armed cruisers had been growing ever more expensive to build. The latest, the USS Gerald R. Ford, te koute yon kolosal $ 13.2 milya dola e toujou pa mache nan espesifikasyon. Kidonk, menm yon Pentagòn ki gen anpil finansman kapab sèlman gen mwayen pou konstwi kèk nan yon moman. Yo tou pwouve de pli zan pli vilnerab a kalite yo misil anti-bato ak tòpiyè ke yo te devlope pa pouvwa tankou Lachin, pandan y ap, kòm evènman sou la TR sijere, yo ap elvaj natirèl pou maladi enfeksyon.
Jiska dezas la abò a Theodore Roosevelt, most worrisome were those Chinese land-based, anti-ship weapons capable of striking American carriers and cruisers in distant parts of the Pacific Ocean. This development had already forced naval planners to consider the possibility of keeping their most prized assets far from China’s shores in any potential shooting war, lest they be instantly lost to enemy fire. Rather than accept such a version of defeat before a battle even began, Navy officials had begun adopting a new strategy, sometimes called “distribye operasyon maritim," nan ki pi piti bato de gè ekipe, nan lavni, ta dwe akonpaye nan batay pa gwo kantite ti, san ekipe, bato misil ame, oswa maritim "robo asasen".
In a reflection of the Navy’s new thinking, the service’s surface warfare director, Rear Admiral Ronald Boxall, eksplike an 2019 ke fiti flòt la, jan sa te fèt la, te gen ladan l “104 gwo konbatan sifas [ak] 52 ti konbatan sifas,” ajoute, “Sa se yon ti kras tèt anba. Èske mwen ta dwe pouse soti isit la epi gen plis ti platfòm? Mwen panse ke etid lavni achitekti flòt la te fè konnen 'wi,' ak jwèt lagè nou an montre gen yon valè nan sa... Epi lè mwen gade nan fòs la, mwen panse: Ki kote nou ka itilize san ekipe pou mwen ka pouse li nan yon platfòm ki pi piti. ?”
Panse a sa a kòm yon siy piblik bonè nan ogmantasyon nan lagè robotik naval, ki finalman kite imajinasyon dystopian futurist pou chan batay aktyèl la nan lavni. Nan vèsyon marin a nan peyizaj ki chanje sa a, yon gwo kantite veso san ekipe (tou de bato sifas ak soumaren) pral Roaming oseyan nan mond lan, rapòte detanzantan atravè mwayen elektwonik bay operatè imen sou rivaj oswa sou bato kòmand yo deziyen. Sepandan, yo ka opere pou yon tan long pou kont yo oswa nan robotik "pake lou".
Such a vision has now been embraced by the senior Pentagon leadership, which sees the rapid procurement and deployment of such robotic vessels as the surest way of achieving the Navy’s (and President Trump’s) goal of a fleet of 355 ships at a time of potentially static defense budgets, recurring pandemics, and mounting foreign threats. “I think one of the ways you get [to the 355-ship level] quickly is moving toward lightly manned [vessels], which over time can be unmanned,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper typically te di an fevriye. "Nou ka ale ak bato ki pa gen anpil moun... Ou ka konstwi yo pou yo gen ekipe opsyonèlman epi lè sa a, tou depann de senaryo a oswa teknoloji a, nan kèk pwen nan tan yo ka ale san ekipe ... Sa ta pèmèt nou jwenn nimewo nou yo byen vit. , e mwen kwè ke nou ka rive nan 355, si se pa pi wo, nan 2030."
Pou kòmanse aplike tankou yon plan odasye, mwa sa a menm Pentagòn lan mande $938 milyon dola pou de pwochen ane fiskal yo pou pwokire twa pwototip gwo veso sifas san ekipe (LUSVs) ak yon lòt $56 milyon dola pou premye devlopman yon veso sifas san ekipe gwosè mwayen (MUSV). Si efò sa yo reyisi, Marin a vle yon lòt $2.1 milya soti nan 2023 jiska 2025 pou pwokire sèt LUSV ki deplwaye ak yon pwototip MUSV.
Ofisyèl naval yo te, sepandan, revele ti kras sou konsepsyon an oswa fonksyone final nan bato de gè robo sa yo. Tout demann bidjè 2021 sèvis sa a di se ke "veso sifas ki pa ekipe (USV) se yon bato ki kapab rekonfigurab, plizyè misyon ki fèt pou bay pri ki ba, gwo andirans, bato rekonfigurab ki kapab akomode plizyè chaj pou misyon san ekipe epi ogmante fòs sifas ekipe marin la."
Ki baze sou rapò izole nan laprès komès militè a, pi plis ki ka konnen sou bato sa yo nan lavni (ak futurist), se ke yo pral sanble. destriktè miniature, petèt 200 pye nan longè, ki pa gen okenn trimès ekipaj men yon gwo etalaj de misil gide ak zam anti-soumaren. Bato sa yo pral tou ekipe ak sistèm òdinatè sofistike ki pèmèt yo opere otonòm pou peryòd tan long epi - nan sikonstans yo poko klarifye - pran aksyon ofansif poukont yo oswa an kowòdinasyon ak lòt veso san ekipe.
The future deployment of robot warships on the high seas raises troubling questions. To what degree, for instance, will they be able to choose targets on their own for attack and annihilation? The Navy has yet to provide an adequate answer to this question, provoking disquiet among arms control and human rights advocates who pè ke bato sa yo te kapab "ale vakabon" epi kòmanse oswa ogmante yon konfli pou kont yo. Epi sa a se evidamman yon pwoblèm potansyèl nan yon mond nan pandemi renouvlab kote robo asasen ta ka pwouve sèlman kalite bato Marin a oze deplwaye an gwo kantite.
Goumen soti byen lwen
Lè li rive pwospè pandemik renouvlab, fòs konba tè Lame ak Kò Marin yo fè fas a yon dilèm ki konparab.
Depi nan fen Dezyèm Gè Mondyal la, estrateji militè Ameriken yo te mande pou fòs ameriken yo "batay pou pi devan" - sa vle di, sou oswa toupre teritwa lènmi olye ke nenpòt kote tou pre Etazini. Sa a, nan vire, te vle di kenbe alyans militè ak anpil peyi atravè mond lan pou fòs Ameriken yo ka baze sou tè yo, sa ki lakòz dè santèn of U.S. military bases globally. In wartime, moreover, U.S. strategy assumes that many of these countries will provide troops for joint operations against a common enemy. To fight the Soviets in Europe, the U.S. created NATO and acquired garrisons throughout Western Europe; to fight communism in Asia, it established military ties with Japan, South Korea, South Vietnam, the Philippines, and other local powers, acquiring scores of bases there as well. When Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Islamic terrorism became major targets of its military operations, the Pentagon forged ties with and acquired bases in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, among other places.
Nan yon mond san pandemi, yon estrateji konsa ofri anpil avantaj pou yon pouvwa enperyal. Nan tan lagè, pa egzanp, pa gen okenn nesesite pou transpòte twoup Ameriken yo (ak tout ekipman lou yo) nan zòn konba a soti nan baz plizyè milye kilomèt lwen. Sepandan, nan yon mond nan pandemi renouvlab, yon vizyon konsa ap vin tounen yon kochma potansyèlman pa dirab.
To begin with, it’s almost impossible to isolate thousands of U.S. soldiers and their families (who often accompany them on long-term deployments) from surrounding populations (or those populations from them). As a result, any viral outbreak outside base gates is likely to find its way inside and any outbreak on the base is likely to head in the opposite direction. This, in fact, occurred at numerous overseas facilities this spring. Camp Humphreys in South Korea, for example, was fèmen apre kat depandan militè yo, kat kontraktè Ameriken yo, ak kat anplwaye Kore di Sid te vin enfekte ak Covid-19. Se te menm bagay la tou sou plizyè baz nan Japon ak sou zile Okinawa lè anplwaye Japonè yo te teste pozitif pou viris la (e, pi resamman, lè pèsonèl militè ameriken an nan senk baz there were found to have Covid-19). Add in Kan Lemonnier nan Djibouti ak Baz aeryen Ahmed al-Jaber nan Kowet, nou pa pale de lefèt ke, an Ewòp, gen kèk 2,600 Sòlda Ameriken yo te mete nan karantèn apre yo sispèk ekspoze a Covid-19. (Epi si lame ameriken an enkyete sou tout bagay sa yo nan lòt peyi yo, reflechi sou ki jan alye Amerik yo santi yo nan yon moman kote Amerik Donald Trump a te vin episant nan pandemi coronavirus mondyal la.)
Yon monn nan pandemi renouvlab pral fè li prèske enposib pou fòs ameriken yo travay kòt a kòt ak tokay etranje yo, espesyalman nan nasyon ki pi pòv ki manke bon jan enstalasyon sante ak sanitasyon. Sa a deja vre nan iraq ak Afganistan, kote yo panse kowonaviris la gaye anpil nan mitan fòs lokal zanmitay e yo te bay sòlda Ameriken yo lòd pou yo sispann misyon fòmasyon ansanm avèk yo.
Yon retou nan mond pre-Covid la parèt de pli zan pli fasil, kidonk rechèch la se kounye a nan gwo tan pou yon nouvo estrateji gid pou operasyon konba Lame ak Marin nan ane k ap vini yo. Menm jan ak Marin a, rechèch sa a te kòmanse aktyèlman anvan epidemi kowonaviris la, men li te genyen yon nouvo ijans apre li.
To insulate ground operations from the dangers of a pandemic-stricken planet, the two services are exploring a similar operating model: instead of deploying large, heavily-armed troop contingents close to enemy borders, they hope to station small, highly mobile forces on U.S.-controlled islands or at other reasonably remote locations, where they can fire long-range ballistic missiles at vital enemy assets with relative impunity. To further reduce the risk of illness or casualties, such forces will, over time, be augmented on the front lines by ever more “unmanned” creations, including armed machines — again those “killer robots” — designed to perform the duties of ordinary soldiers.
Vèsyon Kò Marin yo nan modèl konba nan lavni sa a te premye eple nan Force Design 2030, a document released by Corps commandant General David Berger in the pandemic month of March 2020. Asserting that the Marines’ existing structure was unsuited to the world of tomorrow, he called for a radical restructuring of the force to eliminate heavy, human-operated weapons like tanks and instead increase mobility and long-range firepower with a variety of missiles and what he assumes will be a proliferation of unmanned systems. “Operating under the assumption that we will not receive additional resources,” he wrote, “we must divest certain existing capabilities and capacities to free resources for essential new capabilities.” Among those “new capabilities” that he considers crucial: additional unmanned aerial systems, or drones, that “can operate from ship, from shore, and [be] able to employ both [intelligence-]collection and lethal payloads.”
Nan pwòp planifikasyon alontèm li yo, Lame a ap mete yon menm pi gwo konfyans on creating a force of robots, or at least “optionally manned” systems. Anticipating a future of heavily-armed adversaries engaging U.S. forces in high-intensity warfare, it’s seeking to reduce troop exposure to enemy fire by designing all future combat-assault systems, including tanks, troop-carriers, and helicopters, to be either human-occupied or robotically self-directed as circumstances dictate. The Army’s next-generation infantry assault weapon, for instance, has been dubbed an opsyonèlman ekipe machin batay (OMFV). Kòm non li sijere, li gen entansyon opere avèk oswa san operatè imen abò. Lame a tou pwokire yon machin itilite robotik, eskwadwon multipurpose ekipman transpò (SMET), ki gen entansyon pote 1,000 liv pwovizyon ak minisyon. Gade pi lwen nan tan kap vini an, sèvis sa a te kòmanse tou devlopman nan yon machin konba robot (RCV), oswa yon tank pwòp tèt ou-kondwi.
Lame a ap akselere tou devlopman atiri ak sistèm misil alontèm ki pral fè atak sou pozisyon ènmi ki soti byen dèyè liy devan yo vin pi santral nan nenpòt batay nan lavni ak yon gwo lènmi. Men sa yo enkli atiri kanon ranje pwolonje a, yon obi blende Paladin modènize ak yon barik ki twò long ak pwopilsif suralimante ki ta dwe kapab frape sib 40 mil lwen, ak menm plis avanse misil grèv presizyon (PrSM), yon misil balistik sifas-a-sifas ak yon ranje omwen 310 mil.
Anpil analis, an reyalite, kwè ke PrSM a pral kapab fè grèv nan byen lwen pi gwo distans pase sa, mete sib kritik lènmi - baz lè, sit rada, sant kòmand - nan risk soti nan sit lansman byen lwen dèyè fòs Ameriken yo. Nan ka ta gen lagè ak Lachin, sa ka vle di tire misil soti nan nasyon zanmi zanmitay tankou Japon oswa zile Pasifik yo kontwole US tankou Guam. Vreman vre, posibilite sa a genyen pè Sipòtè Air Force yo ki pè ke Lame a ap uzurpe kalite misyon grèv alontèk tradisyonèlman asiyen pou konbat avyon.
Yon redesign otantik estratejik
Tout plan ak pwogram sa yo ap pwomouvwa pou pèmèt lame ameriken an kontinye fè misyon tradisyonèl li yo nan pwojeksyon pouvwa ak batay lagè nan yon mond ki chanje radikalman. Wè nan pèspektiv sa a, mezi tankou retire maren yo nan bato de gè ki gen anpil moun, diminye ganizon Ameriken nan peyi byen lwen, ak ranplase konbatan imen yo ak sa yo robotik ta ka sanble sansib. Men, gade nan sa ki ta ka rele pwen an avantaj nan sekirite konplè - oswa avansman nan tout aspè nan sekirite Ameriken ak byennèt - yo parèt stupéfiant myop.
Si syantis yo gen rezon epi kowonaviris la pral rete pou yon peryòd tan long epi, nan deseni k ap vini yo, yo pral swiv pa lòt pandemi ki gen menm gwosè oswa pi gwo, vrè menas yo nan lavni pou sekirite Ameriken an ta ka mikrobyolojik (ak ekonomik), pa militè. . Apre yo tout, pandemi aktyèl la deja touye plis Ameriken pase mouri in the Korean and Vietnam wars combined, while triggering the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Imagine, then, what a more lethal pandemic might do. The country’s armed forces may still have an important role to play in such an environment — providing, for example, emergency medical assistance and protecting vital infrastructure — but fighting never-ending wars in distant lands and projecting power globally should not rank high when it comes to where taxpayer dollars go for “security” in such challenging times.
Yon sèl bagay se inevitab: kòm dezas la abò a Theodore Roosevelt endike, militè ameriken an dwe rekonsidere fason li arme ak estrikti fòs li yo epi reflechi seryezman sou modèl altènatif nan òganizasyon. Men, konsantre resous menmen sou ranplasman bato ak tank anvan Covid ak robo asasen apre Covid pou jij kontinuèl nan lagè etranje se diman nan enterè ultim sekirite Amerik la. Malerezman, gen yon bagay ki trè robotik sou panse militè sa yo lè li rive nan mond sa a k ap chanje nan nou an.
Michael T. Klare, yon TomDispatch regilye, se senk kolèj pwofesè emerit nan lapè ak syans sekirite mondyal nan Hampshire College ak yon ansyen parèy vizit nan Asosyasyon an kontwòl zam. Li se otè a nan 15 liv, dènye nan ki se Tout lanfè kraze brize: pèspektiv Pentagòn lan sou chanjman nan klima.
Atik sa a te parèt premye sou TomDispatch.com, yon weblog nan Enstiti Nasyon an, ki ofri yon koule konstan nan lòt sous, nouvèl, ak opinyon nan men Tom Engelhardt, editè depi lontan nan pibliye, ko-fondatè Pwojè Anpi Ameriken an, otè de Fen Kilti Viktwa, tankou yon woman, Dènye Jou Piblikasyon yo. Dènye liv li a se A Nation Unmade By War (Haymarket Books).
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