Memo ga Shugaba Obama: An ba da babu na kaifin basira da kuma rashin isa na shawarwarin masu ba ku shawara, ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa yadda kuke tafiyar da tashe tashen hankulan Masar ya kafa sabbin ma'auni na rashin daidaituwa da rashin iyawa ga manufofin kasashen waje. Watakila madaidaicin yadda za a yi hukunci kan ikon da za a iya amfani da shi ta hanyar zanga-zangar jama'a zai shirya muku mafi kyau ga zagaye na gaba na rikice-rikicen siyasa.
Ka tuna da tashin hankalin da aka yi a dandalin Tiananmen na Beijing a 1989? Wannan kuma wata babbar zanga-zangar lumana ce don neman dimokuradiyya, amma an murkushe ta da mummunan tashin hankali. Wataƙila tunawa da wannan taron ya gamsar da ku da ƙungiyar ku, a matsayin Sakatariyar Gwamnati Clinton sanar lokacin da aka fara zanga-zangar, mulkin Mubarak ya kasance "kwanciyar hankali" kuma cikin "babu hadarin faduwa." Ko wataƙila amincewar ku ta ta'allaka ne akan gaskiyar cewa tana ɗauke da ƙwararrun sojojin zamani waɗanda Amurka ta horar da su.
Amma ya fadi, kuma da kun san cewa yana cikin babban hatsari. Kamata ya yi ku san cewa hasashen da ake yi na wannan bore ya fi wanda ya kawo karshen kisan kiyashi a dandalin Tiananmen; Zai fi dacewa a bi tsarin mulkin mutane a Tunisiya, inda makonni kadan kafin a kori wani mai mulkin kama karya daga mulki, ko Iran a 1979 da Poland a 1989.
Tunda masu leken asirin ku, ciki har da CIA, a fili, ba su gaya muku ba, bari in yi muku bayani kan dalilin da ya sa masu zanga-zangar Masar suka yi nasara wajen yakar barazana da gaskiyar tashin hankali fiye da 'yan uwansu na China, da kuma dalilin da ya sa suka kasance. don haka mafi kyawun kayan aiki don dakile harin da dakarun da ke tsaye. Mafi mahimmanci, bari in cika ku a kan dalilin da ya sa, ta hanyar zama a kan tituna kawai da kuma bin yunƙurinsu na rashin tashin hankali, sun sami damar hambarar da wani azzalumi mai shekaru 30 da kuma goyon bayan Amurka daga kololuwar mulki, tare da share fage. shi a cikin kwandon shara na tarihi.
Yaushe Sojoji Za Su Zama Mai Tashin Hankali?
Amsa guda daya da za a iya yi - wani bangare na yada labarai na yau da kullun - ita ce, sojojin Masar, sabanin takwarorinsu na China, sun yanke shawarar ba za su murkushe tawayen ba, kuma wannan hakurin ya sa zanga-zangar ta yi nasara. Duk da haka, wannan hujja mai ma'ana a zahiri ba ta bayyana komai ba sai dai idan ba za mu iya amsa tambayoyi biyu masu alaƙa da ke gudana daga gare ta ba.
Na farko shi ne: Me ya sa aka hana sojoji haka a wannan karon, yaushe don shekaru 50, "ya tsaya a tsakiyar dan sandan jihar"? Na biyu shi ne: Me ya sa gwamnati, ko da sojoji sun yi shirin juya bindigu a kan masu zanga-zangar, ba za su iya jure wa ‘yan kwanaki ko makonni ko watanni suna zanga-zangar ba, a yayin da ake jiran tayar da kayar baya ta gajiyar da kanta, kuma – a matsayinta na ‘yan adawa. BBC saka shi - "Shin duk abin ya ɓace"?
Amsar tambayoyin biyu ta ta'allaka ne kan gagarumin tasirin da zanga-zangar ta yi kan tattalin arzikin Masar. Mubarak da tawagarsa (da kuma sojoji, wanda ke da karfin tattalin arzikin kasar). firgita cewa kasuwancin "gudanar da zanga-zangar da zanga-zangar ta haifar" yana "yin tasiri sosai kan tattalin arzikin Masar" na Masar. A matsayin Ministan Kudi Samir Radwin ya ce makonni biyu cikin tashin hankalin, yanayin tattalin arzikin ya kasance "mai tsanani sosai" kuma "idan har aka ci gaba da tabarbarewar lamarin, hakan zai kara lalacewa."
Tun daga farkonsu, babbar zanga-zangar ta yi barazana ga biliyoyin daloli da shugabanni da manyan masu cin gajiyar gwamnatin Mubarak suka samu a tsawon shekaru 30 na mulkin ta'addanci, cin hanci da rashawa da kuma tarin dukiya. Musamman ga janar-janar, tabbas ya tabbata cewa manyan ayyukan ta'addancin da suka wajaba don murkushe tada kayar bayan sun haifar da wata illa da ba za a iya gyarawa ba, tare da yin barazana ga ta. fa'idodin tattalin arziki masu yawa. A takaice dai, ko dai kokarin ganin bayan masu juyin-juya hali ko kuma sanya shawarar Tiananmen na haifar da rugujewar daulolin tattalin arziki na kungiyoyin da ke mulkin Masar.
Amma me yasa daya daga cikin wadannan martanin zai lalata tattalin arzikin?
Matse Rayuwa Daga Mulkin Mubarak
A taƙaice, tun daga farko, tashin hankalin Masar yana da tasirin yajin aikin gama-gari. Tun daga ranar 25 ga Janairu, ranar farko ta zanga-zangar, yawon shakatawa - masana'antu mafi girma a cikin kasar, wanda ya fara babban lokacinsa - ya shiga ciki. faɗuwa kyauta. Bayan makonni biyu, masana'antar ta sami sauƙi " kasa ta tsaya," ya bar wani muhimmin kaso na ma'aikata miliyan biyu da take tallafawa tare da rage albashi ko kadan, da kuma sauran 'yan yawon bude ido da suka rage suna yawo a kusa da otal-otal, suna kama dala, idan ma, a talabijin.
Tun da dala da sauran wuraren Masarawa suna jan hankalin fiye da miliyan baƙi wata daya da lissafin akalla 5% na tattalin arzikin Masar, yawon shakatawa kadai (idan aka ba da daidaitattun sakamako mai yawa) na iya yin lissafin sama da 15% na kuɗin kuɗin ƙasar. Ba abin mamaki bane, don haka, ba da daɗewa ba rahotannin labarai suka fara ambaton asarar kudaden shiga har zuwa$ 310 miliyan kowace rana. A cikin tattalin arziƙin da ke da babban kayan cikin gida na shekara-shekara (GDP) na sama da dala biliyan 200, a duk ranar da Mubarak ya ɗaure a ofis yana haifar da raguwa mai ma'ana da haɓaka. Bayan makonni biyu na wannan bam na lokaci mai tsawo, Crédit Agricole, babbar kungiyar banki a Faransa, ta rage kiyasin ci gaban tattalin arzikin kasar da kashi 32%.
Babban hasara na farko a cikin wuraren yawon shakatawa, otal, da tafiye-tafiye na tattalin arzikin Masar sun shafi masana'antu waɗanda manyan kamfanoni na ƙasa da ƙasa suka mamaye da kuma manyan ƙungiyoyin kasuwancin Masar waɗanda suka dogara da yawan kuɗin shiga. Lokacin da kuɗin kuɗi ya mutu, dole ne a biya rancen kuɗi, otal-otal masu zafi, kiyaye jadawalin jiragen sama, kuma yawancin ma'aikata, musamman ma masu gudanarwa, an biya su. A cikin irin wannan yanayi, hasara na farawa da sauri, kuma har ma manyan kamfanoni na iya fuskantar rikici cikin sauri. Lamarin ya kasance mai ban tsoro musamman domin an san cewa matafiya ƙwararru ba za su iya dawowa ba har sai sun gamsu cewa ba za a sake samun matsala ba.
Mafi girman kasuwancin, na gida da na ƙasa-da-kasa, ba sa fuskantar rashin aiki. Su ne ake ganin za su yi gaggawar shawo kan matsalar jajayen tawada ta hanyar tunzura gwamnati don murkushe irin wannan zanga-zangar, da fatan a jiya. Amma dagirman girman na ko da farkon zanga-zangar, fuskar ƙungiyoyin jama'a masu fafutukar ganin sun zubar da shekaru 30 na bacin rai, ya zama abin ban mamaki. Mummunan martanin jarumtaka ga hare-haren 'yan sanda, inda dimbin sabbin masu zanga-zangar suka fuskanci matsin lamba suna kwarara cikin tituna, ya bayyana karara cewa danniya ba zai gaggauta rufe wadannan zanga-zangar ba. Irin wadannan ayyuka sun fi tsawaita wahalhalun da aka samu da kuma kara dagula tashe-tashen hankula.
Ko da Washington ta yi jinkirin ɗaukar matakin, bai ɗauki lokaci mai tsawo ba don ƙwaƙƙwaran mulkin Masar don fahimtar gaskiyar cewa babban, murkushe tashin hankali dabara ce mai wuyar aiwatarwa. Da zarar zanga-zangar ta shafi dubunnan dubunnan, idan ba miliyoyi ba, na Masarawa, babban danniya da zubar da jini ya ba da tabbacin gurguncewar tattalin arziki na dogon lokaci tare da tabbatar da cewa kasuwancin yawon bude ido ba zai sake komawa ba na tsawon watanni ko fiye.
gurguncewar masana'antar yawon shakatawa, ita kanta, wani bam ne na lokacin tattalin arziki wanda ke yin barazana ga dorewar jigon 'yan jari-hujja na Masar, muddin ana ci gaba da zanga-zangar. Maidowa zai iya kawai fara bayan a "ka dawo normal rayuwa" Maganar da ta zama daidai da ƙarshen zanga-zangar a cikin maganganun gwamnati, sojoji, da kuma kafofin watsa labarai na yau da kullun. Tare da wadata da yawa a kan gungumen azaba, azuzuwan kasuwanci, na waje da na cikin gida, ba da daɗewa ba suka fara jin daɗin mafi bayyananniyar mafita kuma mafi ƙaranci: Mubarak ya tashi.
Rikicin gwamnatin Mubarak
Harin da aka kai kan yawon bude ido, duk da haka, shi ne karo na farko a cikin abin da ya zama cikin hanzari ya zama makamin da masu zanga-zangar suka yi na kawo cikas ga dimbin jama’a, wanda ke dada dagula tattalin arzikin kasar. Muhimman hanyoyin sadarwa da masana'antar sufuri sun shiga rudani cikin sauri kuma sun katse ta sakamakon zanga-zangar. Gwamnati da farko rufe intanet da sabis na wayar hannu a kokarin hana masu zanga-zangar hanyoyin sadarwa da tsarin su, ciki har da Facebook da Twitter. Lokacin da aka sake buɗe su, waɗannan ayyukan sun yi aiki ba daidai ba, a wani ɓangare saboda ƙara tawaye na ma'aikatan nasu.
An ga irin wannan tasirin a harkokin sufuri, wanda ya zama abin dogaro da kai, ko dai saboda rufewar gwamnati da nufin gurgunta zanga-zangar ko kuma saboda zanga-zangar ta kawo cikas ga ayyukan yau da kullun. Kuma irin wannan rikice-rikicen da sauri ya ruguje zuwa ga yawancin sassan tattalin arziki, daga banki zuwa kasuwancin waje, wanda sadarwa da/ko sufuri ya kasance mahimmanci.
Kamar yadda zanga-zangar girma, ma'aikata, kwastomomi, da masu siyar da kasuwanci daban-daban sun kasance sun fi cinyewa tare da shirye-shiryen, shiga, ko murmurewa daga sabuwar zanga-zangar, ko kare gidaje daga masu satar dukiyar jama'a da masu aikata laifuka bayan da gwamnati ta kira 'yan sanda a kan tituna. A ranar Juma'a musamman, mutane da yawa bar aikin don shiga zanga-zangar a lokacin sallar azahar, sun yi watsi da ofisoshinsu yayin da kasar ta nutsar da kanta a cikin babban zanga-zangar ta gaba - sannan kuma ta biyo baya.
Matukar aka ci gaba da gudanar da zanga-zangar, idan dai kowane sabon salo ya yi daidai ko ya zarce na karshe, tattalin arzikin ya ci gaba da mutuwa yayin da manyan 'yan kasuwa da 'yan siyasa ke neman mafita ga rikicin.
Berayen Sun Bar Jirgin Jiha Da Ke Nutsewa
bayan kowane upsurge cikin zanga-zangar, Mubarak da mukarrabansa suka bayar sabon rangwame da nufin tsit da jama'a. Su kuma wadannan, masu zanga-zangar sun dauke su a matsayin alamun rauni, sai dai kawai sun gamsar da su da karfinsu, da kara habaka harkar, da shigar da shi cikin zuciyar ma'aikatan Masar da kuma kungiyoyin kwararru daban-daban. A farkon mako na uku na zanga-zangar, zanga-zangar ta fara afkawa cibiyoyi masu mahimmanci kai tsaye.
A ranar 9 ga Fabrairu, rahotannin a faɗaɗa yajin aiki a manyan masana’antu a fadin kasar nan sun fara kwararowa, yayin da lauyoyi, ma’aikatan lafiya, da sauran kwararru suka fito kan tituna suna korafe-korafensu. A cikin yini guda, dubun dubatar ma'aikata a masana'antun masaku, jaridu da sauran kamfanonin watsa labaru, hukumomin gwamnati (ciki har da gidan waya), ma'aikatan tsabtace muhalli da direbobin bas, kuma - mafi mahimmanci duka - ma'aikata a tashar Suez Canal sun fara. da wuya rangwamen tattalin arziki da kuma tafiyar Mubarak.
Tunda mashigar ruwa ta Suez ita ce ta biyu bayan yawon bude ido a matsayin hanyar samun kudin shiga ga kasar, zama a can, wanda ya hada da ma'aikata 6,000, ya kasance abin ban tsoro. Duk da cewa masu zanga-zangar ba su yi wani yunkuri na rufe magudanar ruwa ba, barazanar da ke tattare da gudanar da aikin ta a bayyane take.
Rufe magudanar ruwa ba dan Masar ba ne kawai ba amma bala'i ne na duniya: wani babban kaso na mai na duniya yana ratsawa ta wannan magudanar, musamman ma mahimmanci ga Turai da ke fama da yunwa. Wani gagarumin raguwar jigilar kayayyaki, ba ƙaramin rufewa ba, ya yi barazanar sake sabunta koma bayan tattalin arzikin duniya na 2008-2009, kamar yadda zai lalata babbar hanyar samun kuɗin shiga na gwamnatin Masar.
Kamar dai wannan bai isa ba, masu zanga-zangar sun mayar da hankalinsu ga cibiyoyin gwamnati daban-daban, suna ƙoƙari mayar da su "mara aiki." Washegarin da shugaban ya ƙi yin murabus na uku, masu zanga-zangar sun yi iƙirarin cewa yawancin manyan biranen yankin, ciki har da Suez, da Mahalla, da Mansoura, da Ismailia, da Port Said, da ma Alexandria (babban tashar ruwa ta ƙasar Bahar Rum), ba su da ‘yanci daga tsarin mulki. na jami'an Mubarak, da sadarwar gwamnati, da 'yan sanda da jami'an tsaro da ake kyama. A Alkahira, babban birnin kasar, masu zanga-zangar sun fara kewaye majalisar dokokin kasar, da ginin gidan talabijin na jihar, da sauran cibiyoyi masu muhimmanci ga gwamnatin kasa. Alaa Abd El Fattah, ɗan gwagwarmaya kuma sanannen marubucin siyasa a Alkahira, ya gaya Democracy Yanzu cewa taron “za su iya ci gaba da ƙaruwa, ko dai ta wurin da’awar ƙarin wurare ko kuma ta hanyar shiga cikin waɗannan gine-gine, idan bukatar hakan ta zo.” Yayin da tattalin arzikin kasar ya shakulewa har ya mutu, a yanzu masu zanga-zangar sun yi ta matsa kaimi don sanya kafar wando daya da na'urorin gwamnati da kanta.
A wannan lokacin, wani al'amari na barin-bakin-ba- nutse-kwaryar-jihar-jihar ta fashe a cikin hayyacin jama'a yayin da "manyan kamfanoni da yawa ke fitar da tallace-tallace a cikin jaridun cikin gida suna sanya tazara tsakanin su da gwamnatin." Guardian jarida Jack Shenkerya tabbatar da wannan nunin jama'a ta hanyar ambato majiyoyin da aka sanar da ke bayyana yadda ake yaduwa "tashin hankali a tsakanin 'yan kasuwa" game da yiwuwar gwamnatin, da kuma cewa "da yawa daga cikin mutanen da za ku yi tunanin suna kwance da Mubarak sun daina hakuri a asirce."
Wannan kara matsa lamba a wuyan gwamnatin Mubarak ne ya sanya gagarumin zanga-zangar da aka gudanar a makonnin da suka gabata ta sha banban da ta dandalin Tiananmen. A kasar Sin, masu zanga-zangar suna da tasirin tattalin arziki da siyasa mara kyau. A cikin Masar, zaɓin wani mummunan harin soji, ko da "nasara" wajen fitar da su daga kan tituna, ya zama kamar kowa ya ba da tabbacin zurfafa rikicin tattalin arziƙin da ya rigaya ya riga ya shiga, wanda ke haifar da faɗaɗa yanayin tattalin arziki - don haka dukiyar soja - zuwa hadarin irreparable bala'i.
Watakila da Mubarak ya yarda ya sadaukar da duk wannan don ya ci gaba da mulki. Kamar yadda abin ya faru, ɗimbin ɗimbin motsi da masu girgiza, gami da shugabannin soja, manyan ƴan kasuwa, masu saka hannun jari na ƙasashen waje, da gwamnatocin ƙasashen waje masu sha'awar sun ga wata hanya mafi dacewa ta madadin mafita.
Weil Ziada, shugaban bincike na wani babban kamfanin hada-hadar kudi na Masar, ya yi magana kan fannin kasuwanci da na siyasa lokacin da ya fada Guardian labaru Jack Shenker a ranar 11 ga Fabrairu:
"Rashin adawa da gwamnati bai lafa ba, yana kara samun karbuwa...Wannan sabuwar guguwar ta na kara matsin lamba kan ba gwamnati kadai ba, har ma da daukacin gwamnatin; Akwai yanayi biyu ko uku, amma duk sun hada da abu daya: Mubarak ya sauka daga mulki - kuma 'yan kasuwa suna daidaita abin da suke tsammani."
Washegari shugaba Hosni Mubarak ya yi murabus ya bar birnin Alkahira.
Shugaba Obama, ka tuna da wannan darasi: Idan kana so ka guje wa manufofin ketare na gaba, ku sani cewa zanga-zangar rashin tarzoma tana da yuwuwar shake ko da mafi munin tsarin mulki, idan za ta iya yin barazana ga ci gaban masana'antunta. A cikin irin wannan yanayi, gangamin jama'a sanye da muggan makamai na rushewar jama'a na iya kifar da azzalumi sanye da muggan makaman kare dangi.
Masanin ilimin zamantakewa a Jami'ar Jihar Stony Brook, Michael Schwartz shine marubucin Yakin Ba tare da Ƙarshe ba: Yaƙin Iraki a cikin Mahimmanci (Haymarket Press). Ayyukan Schwartz a kan ƙungiyoyin zanga-zangar, siyasa masu rikici, da kuma tsarin mulkin mallaka na Amurka ya bayyana a cikin masana'antu da mashahurai masu yawa a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata. Shi ne a TomDispatch na yau da kullum. Adireshin sa na imel shine[email kariya]. Don sauraron sabuwar hira ta odiyo TomCast ta Timothy MacBain wacce Schwartz yayi magana game da juyin juya halin Masar da kuma ikon rushewar tashin hankali, danna. nan, ko sauke shi zuwa ga iPod nan.
[Wannan labarin ya fara bayyana TomDispatch.com, wani gidan yanar gizo na Cibiyar Nation, wanda ke ba da ci gaba mai gudana na hanyoyin daban-daban, labarai, da ra'ayi daga Tom Engelhardt, editan dogon lokaci a cikin wallafe-wallafe, wanda ya kafa Aikin Daular Amurka, Marubucin Ƙarshen Nasara Al'adu, Kamar yadda na novel, Kwanakin Karshen Bugawa. Sabon littafinsa shine Hanyar Yakin Amurka: Yadda Yakin Bush Ya Zama Na Obama (Littattafan Haymarket).]
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