A top Hamas official was assassinated in a suburb of Beirut on Tuesday amid growing fears that Israel’s war on Gaza could entangle Lebanon and other countries in the region. Hamas’s deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed in a suspected Israeli drone strike that also killed six other members of Hamas, though Israel has not confirmed its involvement. “What many analysts in the region are concluding is that Israel clearly would like to see greater regional escalation,” says analyst Mouin Rabbani, co-editor of Jadaliyya and host of the Connections podcast. He says that while it’s not certain that the war will expand, particularly because the U.S. is intent to contain the fighting, “the confidence Israel has that it can do as it pleases and not suffer any consequences for any of its actions is the key variable here.”

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