Nakulokhu futhi, futhi isikhathi esingenakubalwa, ukukhululwa kwangoLwesithathu (lokho okwabizwa ngokuthi, noma kunjalo) inhlolovo enkulu yombono womphakathi waseMelika ngu I-Pew Research Centre Yabantu kanye Nabezindaba kwakuthakazelisa kakhulu lokho okwakuyikho ukubhejwa mayelana nezinhlobo zemibono nezithombe ezizungeza ngaphakathi kwesiko lezepolitiki elijwayelekile lase-US, kunanoma yikuphi okutholakele okubikwe lapho.
I-Titled Isimo Sengqondo Senqubomgomo Yangaphandle Manje Siqhutshwa yi-9/11 kanye ne-Iraq Eroding Inhlonipho YeMelika Ibonwa Njengenkinga Enkulu (Aug. 18โyize ngenjongo yokuphrinta lo mbhalo, ngingancoma ukuthi ubheke Uhlobo lwe-PDF esikhundleni salokho), ukushicilelwa kocwaningo kuhambisane nokukhishwa kwenkulumo emfushane yoMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Namazwe Angaphandle, โNgenqubomgomo Yezangaphandle, Abavoti Ababomvu Nabaluhlaza Bahlukene Ngamazweโ lokho ngokwakho kwanezela ekukholweni kwami โโmayelana nesimo esingesihle sezinkolelo zomphakathi e-Statesโngakho-ke umhlaba wonke, uma kubhekwa ububanzi bamandla aseMelika namuhla.
(Shesha eceleni: Ngesikhathi sokugcina ngizihlupha ngokubuka idokhumenti esanda kwenziwa ngaphansi kweCouncil on Foreign Relations, bekuyilona olunzima kakhulu olunesihloko esithi I-Iran: Isikhathi Sendlela Entsha (Julayi 19, 2004), egunyazwe ngokuhlanganyela yi-CFR ebizwa ngokuthi yi-Independent Task Force, ehlanganisa ama-mandarin anjalo e-American Power njengo-Zbigniew Brzezinski kanye no-Robert Gates, owayenguMqondisi we-CIA. Bengifuna ukwenza ibhulogi ye-ZNet kulo lonke izwe lase-Iran okungenani kule nyanga edluleโikakhulukazi, iphimbo laseWashington elinempi futhi elivame ukwesabisa kuhulumeni waseTehran. Ngeshwa, khona lapha, khona manje, akuyona indawo noma isikhathi.)
Noma kunjalo. Ukuphawula kwe-CFR ocwaningweni lwe-Pew kugomela ukuthi (ikhasi 38 le-PDF):
I-Realpolitik ayidlali kahle nomphakathi waseMelika, noma. Abantu baseMelika bakholelwa kakhulu ukuthi ukuziphatha kufanele kuthonye izinqumo zenqubomgomo yangaphandle. Cishe izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zomphakathi zithi โizimiso zokuziphathaโ kufanele zibe yisiqondiso kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-US.
Ingabe ukhona ongakukhathalela ukuphendula kulokhu kugomela? Ebusweni bakho, angiqiniseki ukuthi iveza bani ukuthi ukhohlakele kakhulu: โUmphakathi waseMelikaโ? Noma ababhali be-CFR, u-Lee Feinstein, u-James M. Lindsay, no-Max Boot?
Noma kuthiwani ngalesi siqephu esivela kumazwana afanayo (ikhasi 39 le-PDF):
Ngabe i-US izophepheka futhi ichume kakhulu uma yesatshwa, noma uma ithandwa? Ingabe amandla ezempi aseMelika, kanye nokuzimisela ukuwasebenzisa, yini ebaluleke kakhulu, noma ingabe isithunzi saseMelika phesheya sibaluleke ngokulinganayo?
Okwamanje, abavoti abashintshayo kungenzeka bancike ohlangothini lukaKerry lwenkulumo-mpikiswano. Banikeza ukubaluleka okuphezulu kakhulu ekuqiniseni iNhlangano Yezizwe Ezihlangene kanye nokwenza ngcono ubudlelwano beMelika nabalingani bayo kunabasekeli bakaBush. Lokhu kukhomba ukuthi umsebenzi obhekene nomengameli owokunxenxa laba bavoti ukuthi amandla aqinile yiwona azobagcina bephephile noma abaqinisekise ukuthi naye uyakuqonda ukubaluleka kwamandla athambile.
Ingabe ukhona ongathanda ukukuchaza ngokuningiliziwe umbono walaba babhali be-CFR abawukhaphelayo? Ingabe lokhu akulona iphuzu elifanayo lokubuka eliwumcabango ongemuva ocashile ngemuva kwakho konke Ama-Swift Boat Veterans Ngeqiniso-uhlobo lokuhlaselwa komele iDemocratic Party esikhundleni sikamongameliโingasaphathwa eyokuzivikela abalandeli balowo ozongenela ukhetho? (Noma ukulwa. Noma ngabe yikuphi.)
Wesaba? Uthandiwe? Idumela? โAmandla ezempi aseMelika, nokuzimisela ukuwasebenzisaโ? โ[Umsebenzi] obhekene nomengameli wukunxenxa laba bavoti ukuthi amandla aqinile yiwona azobagcina bephephile noma abaqinisekise ukuthi naye uyakuqonda ukubaluleka kwamandla athambileโ? Ucwaningo lwe-Pew ngokwalo alunikezeli ngcaciso kule mibuzo. Okungenani hhayi ngokwemibandela yayo. Eqinisweni, ukungena kuzo ngokujule kakhulu, kumane kubadide kakhulu.
Imidiya yokuphrinta yase-US ayizange ibe usizo olukhulu ekuqondiseni okutholwe yi-Pew, futhi. Ngakho, isibonelo, i- New York Times kubika ukuthi (u-Brian Knowlton, โAbavoti Base-US Babonisa Ukukhathazeka Ngokuvikeleka Nezindaba Zangaphandle,โ Aug. 19โukuze uthole ikhophi, bheka ngezansi):
Usongo lobuphekula lusaqhubeka nokubumba ngokujulile izimo zengqondo zomphakathi mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwamandla kanye nezinga lezinyathelo zokuvikela izwe lakubo. Ngenkathi abantu baseMelika abathathu kwabayi-3 bethi uhulumeni wobumbano uye weqisa ekubekeni imingcele yenkululeko njengengxenye yezinyathelo ezihloselwe ukulwa nobuphekula, aba-10 kwabayishumi bazwakalise ukukhathazeka ngokuthi akenzanga okwanele ukuvikela izwe.
"Kunezindawo eziningi ku-poll lapho ungabona khona ukuthi ukushaqeka kukaSeptemba 11 kuwukukhathazeka okuphakathi komphakathi waseMelika," kusho uMnu Mead.
Enye yalezo ezibonakala iyinkolelo, ebanjwe ngamaphesenti angu-43, ukuthi ukuhlukunyezwa ngezinye izikhathi kungase kulungiswe izimo, inani eliphawulekayo uma kucatshangelwa ihlazo lokuhlukunyezwa kwejele e-Iraq.
UCarroll Doherty wePew Centre uthe umphakathi ubufuna ngokusobala ubudlelwano obuqinile namadlelandawonye, โโnjengoba uMnu. Kerry ethembisile, kanye nezinyathelo eziqinile zokulwa nobushokobezi, umbono ohlobene kakhulu noMnu Bush emqondweni womphakathi.
โUmphakathi awuboni ukungqubuzana lapho,โ usho kanje. "Bafuna bobabili."
Noma ku Washington Post (Robin Wright, "Indlela I-US Isebenza Ngayo e-Iraq May Swing Voters," Aug. 19-bona ngezansi):
Inqubomgomo yezangaphandle kanye nokukhathazeka kwezokuphepha kuzwelonke kubhekwa njengokubaluleke kakhulu ngabantu baseMelika kulo nyaka womkhankaso kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi kusukela ngeMpi yaseVietnam, futhi imibono yempumelelo noma ukwehluleka e-Iraq ingaba yinto evelele ekushintsheni abavoti abashintshashintshayo ngoNovemba, ngokusho kokuvota okusha okwenziwe yi-Pew. Isikhungo Sokucwaninga Sabantu Nabezindaba.
Cishe amaphesenti angama-41 alabo abahlolisisiwe babheka izindaba zamazwe ngamazwe njengempi yase-Iraq kanye nobuphekula njengezinkinga ezibaluleke kakhulu ezibhekene nezwe, kuyilapho cishe amaphesenti angu-26 anomuzwa wokuthi izinkinga zezomnotho zibaluleke kakhulu, ngokusho kocwaningo lwePew, olwenziwe ngokubambisana noMkhandlu Wezangaphandle. Ubudlelwano.
"Ngaphandle koshintsho olukhulu emibonweni yomphakathi ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, ukhetho lwango-2004 luzoba olokuqala kusukela esikhathini saseVietnam lapho izindaba zangaphandle kanye nezindaba zokuphepha kwezwe zibaluleke kakhulu kunomnotho," kuphetha umbiko wePew.
Kepha njengabavoti abaningi, abavoti abajikijelayo - labo abangazibophezele kunoma yiliphi ilungu, okuhlanganisa nabaningi ezifundeni ezisezinkundleni zempi - bahlukaniswa ngokuthi yiliphi ikhandidethi elinamandla kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle kanye nobushokobezi, kutholwe inhlolovo. Abavoti be-Swing bavame ukuvumelana kakhulu namaDemocrats ezindabeni zenqubomgomo yangaphandle, kodwa imibono yabo isondelene nezikhundla zeRiphabhulikhi ekulweni nobushokobezi, kusho abavoti.
Empeleni, umuzwa wokudideka uthathwe kahle kakhulu (okungenani kulokho engikubonile) yi- Chicago Tribune, eyabika (uStephen J. Hedges, โUkwesaba, izinkinga zabavoti abahamba phambili zempi ekuhlolweni,โ Aug. 19โbona ngezansi):
Imikhankaso kaBush noKerry ikubeke kwacaca ukuthi basazoqhubeka nokuqhakambisa izingqikithi zempi ngokhetho. Isu, ngokusho kukaPeter Feaver, uprofesa wesayensi yezepolitiki eDuke University, likhombisa kokubili ukukhathazeka phakathi kwabavoti kanye nokubala okusebenzayo kwezepolitiki phakathi komkhankaso ngamunye.
"Ngicabanga ukuthi i-artifact yezinto ezimbili," kusho u-Feaver. โEsinye isimo somhlaba wangempela, hhayi nje ngemuva kwe-9/11, kodwa iqiniso lokuthi siphakathi kwezimpi ezimbili ezibalulekile e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq zombili ezishubile. . . . Isici sesibili, esiveza iqiniso lezepolitiki, ukuthi zombili izinhlangothi zenza umzamo wokudlala ngokuvikeleka kwezwe.
U-Feaver wengeze ngokuthi, โKuyingxenye yezibalo zeqembu, ngokungananazi, ukuthi kunethuba langempela lokuthi kungase kuphinde kube nesiteleka samaphekula phakathi kwamanje nokhetho, futhi alikho iqembu elifuna ukuzithola likhuluma ngezinhlelo zesidlo sasemini esikoleni.โ
Yiqiniso, kuhlale kungenzeka ukuthi kunokungqubuzana okuthile phakathi kwesisekelo esijulile, ngempela, izinkolelo ezinengqondo zomuntu, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kanye nawo wonke ama-rhetorical crap lapho umuntu ephoqeleka khona ukuthola inyama nethambo lakhe. ukuzalwa komuntu eMelika yangaleso sikhathiโfuthi lapho inkulumo ethi โizingqikithi zokulwaโ ukuqagela okuhle kakhulu. Kodwa lolu hlobo lwento eceleni, kunjengokungathi, ezingeni lezombangazwe likazwelonke, akekho onikezwa unyawo oluyisikwele lomhlaba oqinile okumele ame kuwo ongazange alwe, ongabhalisiwe kulokhu noma lokhuya. Impi yaseMelikaโโImpi Yokwesaba,โ impi yase-Iraqโfuthi lokho akukhangisi ukuzibophezela okujulile odlameni olungena kuyo yonke into yaseMelikaโngendlela ekhohlisayo efanayo nezizukulwane zamakhemikhali anobuthi ezinazo.
Mhlawumbe yonke i-Pew Research Center/Council on Foreign Relations complex seyinesikhathi eside yabhalwa ukuthi isuswe ukungcola, futhi ingabe ingasebenzisa ukuhlanza okuthile?
Kodwa kuthiwani ngeMelika yonke?
(Mayelana nokuthi: Okunye ngesinye isikhathi.)
I-FYA (Okwezingobo zakho zomlandoโ): Ngifaka lapha isampula elincane lesevisi yezintambo ezivamile zase-US kanye nemibiko yemidiya yokuphrinta ngokuhlaziywa kwe-Pew Research Center kwango-August 18 ngombono womphakathi waseMelika.โMhlawumbe uMqondisi wePew Research Center' u-Andrew Kohut wakufingqa okungcono kakhulu lapho etshela Los Angeles Times: "Okungimangaze kakhulu [mayelana nocwaningo] ukuthi singabona ngokucacile kanjani lezi zindlela ezimbili eziphikisanayo-impumelelo empini yokwesaba nokudumazeka ngempi yase-Iraq" (Aug. 19). Inkinga nje ukuthi, lokho uKohut akufingqa lapha yisimo saso ukudideka okukhulu-iphethini eyodwa enkulukazi engabonakala ilandela wonke amanye amaphethini okuvala isihenqo ngaphansi kwayo.
I-United Press International
Agasti 18, 2004 NgoLwesithathu
ISIHLOKO: Ukuvota: Impi yase-Iraq izokhipha ivoti elinqumayo
NGOKUQINILE: Ngu-MARIE HORRIGAN
IDETHI: WASHINGTON, Aug. 18 (UPI)
Izinkinga zenqubomgomo yezangaphandle zigxume zaba phambili ezingqondweni zabavoti okokuqala ngqa emashumini eminyaka ambalwa, kodwa ngenkathi abantu baseMelika bebonakala bekwazi kakhulu ukuma kwabo emphakathini womhlaba, imibono isahlukanisiwe emigqeni yeqembu eliqinile.
Impi yase-Iraq - kanye nokuthi izinto ziqhubeka kanjani ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo - nayo isalokhu iyisici esinqumayo okhethweni lukamongameli lwangoNovemba emqhudelwaneni wenqubomgomo ngobuholi, kuveze ucwaningo olukhishwe ngoLwesithathu.
Ucwaningo olwenziwa yiPew Research Centre for the People and the Press, ngokubambisana neCouncil on Foreign Relations, luthole ukuthi ngokokuqala ngqa selokhu abaphendula ngeMpi YaseVietnam babalule izinkinga zamazwe ngamazwe njengenkinga enkulu ebhekene ne-United States.
Amaphesenti angama-26 alabo okwaxoxwa nabo aveze impi, inqubomgomo yangaphandle kanye nobuphekula njengodaba olubaluleke kakhulu ezweni, kanti ama-1970% athi izinkinga zezomnotho zihamba phambili. Bekungokokuqala ngqa kusukela maphakathi neminyaka yawo-XNUMX ukuthi izindaba zamazwe ngamazwe zishaye indiva ezasekhaya.
Kepha umbono ophelele wezinkinga ezinkulu, okuhlanganisa nempi yase-Iraq, unesizotha, kusho abavoti.
Ukuvota kukhombisa abavoti abafuna "inqubomgomo yezangaphandle yakwaGoldilocks," kusho iPhini likaMongameli we-CFR uJim Lindsay - hhayi kushisa kakhulu kodwa akubandi kakhulu.
Udaba lufika โekuthatheni izinqumo ngokuqapha uma kuqhathaniswa nokuqapha ngokucophelela,โ esho, ngokwehlukana okucacile emigqeni yeqembu. Cishe isibalo esilinganayo sabaphendulile sithe kubalulekile ukuqapha - amaphesenti angama-66 - njengokunquma - amaphesenti angama-62. Kepha izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zabaphenduli beRiphabhulikhi zichaze ukwenza izinqumo njengenani eliphezulu lenqubomgomo yangaphandle, kuyilapho iningi lamaDemocrats lifuna ukuqapha kunqubomgomo.
Njengezinye izinhlolovo eziningi, i-poll ye-Pew ithole iningi labaphendulile lingajabule ngesenzo sempi yase-Iraq. Amaphesenti angamashumi amahlanu nambili abaphendulile awakuvumanga ukuphatha kukaBush lesi simo, kuyilapho bacishe bahlukana phakathi ngokuthi impi yayisiza noma yalimaza impi yobushokobezi. Cishe abayisithupha kwabayishumi abaphendulile bathi bebengacabangi ukuthi uBush unohlelo olucacile lokuqeda ngempumelelo impi yase-Iraq, kodwa iningi - amaphesenti angu-10 - lithe amasosha kufanele ahlale ezweni kuze kube yilapho isimo sizinzile.
Izinombolo zizonke zikholelwa ukuhlukana phakathi kwamaDemocrats namaRepublican. Abasekeli bakaBush abangaphezu kwesishiyagalombili kwabayishumi bathi impi yase-Iraq ibe yisinyathelo esihle empini yamaphekula, kuyilapho cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zabasekeli bakaKerry bathi iyingozi.
Amaphesenti angu-94 abaphendulile abathi bahlose ukuvotela uBush bathi unohlelo olucacile mayelana nokuphela kwempi, kanti u-XNUMX% walabo abahlela ukuvotela uKerry uthe akazange.
Impi yase-Iraq iqinise amavoti kaKerry, ngokusho kukaLindsay. Ngaphandle kodaba, โNgeke akwazi ukuvala igebeโ noBush. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isikhundla sabavoti e-Iraq ayikashintshi naphezu kwentuthuko esezingeni eliphezulu efana nokudluliselwa kwegunya kuhulumeni wesikhashana kanye nokunciphisa ukusakazwa kwempi eziteshini zezindaba zenethiwekhi ye-TV.
Ezinye izingqinamba ezibalulekile azikashintshi, kusho u-CFR Senior Fellow u-Lee Feinstein. Abantu baseMelika bahlala bezibophezele kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle esekelwe ekuziphatheni, abayisikhombisa kwabayi-10 beyibiza njengento ehamba phambili yenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-US.
Inhlolovo iphinde yakhombisa ukusekelwa okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zezempi, ukwenqatshwa kwezinqubomgomo zokuzihlukanisa kanye nesifiso sokumisa impi e-Iraq ize ifinyelele esiphethweni esiyimpumelelo.
Iningi labaphendulile liphinde lasekela lokho okubizwa ngokuthi imfundiso kaBush ye-pre-emption, kuyilapho amaphesenti agcwele angama-60 angathethelela ukusetshenziswa kokuhlushwa, ngisho nangemva kwehlazo lokuhlukunyezwa kwejele lase-Abu Ghraib. Ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yabaphendulile ithe icabanga ukuthi ukuhlukunyezwa akukaze kuthethelelwe, futhi ukungakuthandi ukuhlukunyezwa kwakunamandla phakathi kwamaDemocrats kanye nabazimele kunaphakathi kwamaRiphabhulikhi.
Okutholakele kususelwa kunhlolovo yocingo eyenziwe ngoJulayi 8-18 nabantu abadala base-US abayizi-2,009. Inomkhawulo wephutha ongafika kumaphesenti angu-3.5.
Amalungu eqembu ahlukene nawo avumelene ngesithunzi se-United States emphakathini womhlaba. Sekukonke, cishe abayisikhombisa kwabangu-10 abaphendulile babike ukuthi bacabanga ukuthi i-United States yayihlonishwa kancane emhlabeni jikelele.
Iningi lamaRepublicans - amaphesenti angama-47 - athi i-United States ayihlonishwa kancane emhlabeni, kanti amaphesenti angama-80 amaDemocrats kanye namaphesenti angu-74 azimele avumelana.
Nokho, lokho inhlolovo eyaqokomisa, nokho, uFeinstein akusho, โkwakuyinkulumompikiswano yomphakathi evamile mayelana namandla aqinile ngokumelene namandla athambile.โ
Kwabaphendulayo, ukubaluleka kwesithunzi se-US emhlabeni wonke kuncike ekuhlanganiseni iqembu. Yize amaphesenti angama-56 amaDemocrats kanye namaphesenti angama-49 abazimele bethi ukulahlekelwa isithunzi sezwe kuyinkinga enkulu, ama-22% amaRepublican ahlonze kanjalo.
Okutholakele kuphinde kwaveza ukuthi yize cishe zonke izinkinga ziwela ngokwemigqa yeqembu, abazimele ababaluleke kakhulu basondela kumaDemocrat kunamaRepublican. Nakuba benza umkhawulo omncane, abazimele bangase banqume ukhetho endaweni egxile kakhulu kangako.
Ekuhlaziyeni okokugcina, uMqondisi wePew u-Andrew Kohut uthe, uBush uyaqhubeka nokubusa kwakhe ezimfanelweni zobuholi - kodwa yizinqubomgomo zikaKerry abakhethwa abaphendulayo. Njengoba abantu abazimele bethambekele ohlangothini lweDemocratic Alliance, "Ukuphela kwento uBush angayenza ukwenza abantu bangakhululeki ngoKerry njengomholi," esho.
I-Associated Press Online
Agasti 19, 2004 ULwesine 4:34 AM Isikhathi SaseMpumalanga
ISIHLOKO: Ukuvota: Abavoti Babheke Ezokuphepha Kuzwelonke
NGAPHAMBILI: INGABE LESTER; Umbhali Wezindaba Ohlangene
IDETHI: WASHINGTON
Ukukhathazeka ngokuvikeleka kwezwe kugcwele ukunakwa komphakathi ezinyangeni zokugcina zomkhankaso wokuba ngumongameli ngenxa yokuqhubeka kokwesaba ubuphekula nokungajabuli ngempi yase-Iraq, ngokusho kocwaningo olukhishwe ngoLwesithathu.
"Ngokokuqala ngqa kusukela ngesikhathi saseVietnam, izinkinga zezokuphepha zezwe zikhula kakhulu kunezinkinga zezomnotho onyakeni wokhetho," kusho u-Andrew Kohut, umqondisi wePew Research Center for the People & the Press.
Izindaba ezifana nempi, ubushokobezi kanye nenqubomgomo yezangaphandle zibizwe njengezibaluleke kakhulu esibhekene nesizwe ngabantu abane kwabayishumi, kanti ingxenye eyodwa kwezine yalabo abaxoxiwe ithe izinkinga zezomnotho zibaluleke kakhulu. NgoJanuwari, izindaba zokuphepha kuzwelonke zazinezinkinga zezomnotho kulolu cwaningo.
Unyaka wokugcina wokhetho lapho izindaba zezokuphepha kuzwelonke zithathwa njengezibaluleke kakhulu kwakungu-1972, ngokusho kokuhlaziywa kukaPew kweyakhe kanye nedatha ye-Gallup Poll ebuyela emuva engxenyeni yekhulu leminyaka.
Akukacaci noma ukugxila kwezokuphepha kumzuzisa kakhulu uMongameli Bush noma oqokwe njengomongameli weDemocratic Alliance uJohn Kerry.
Phakathi kwemizwa engabonakala ivuna uBush:
- Abayisishiyagalolunye kwabayishumi bathi ukuthatha izinyathelo zokuvikela i-United States ekuhlaselweni kwamaphekula kuyinto ehamba phambili.
- Abayisithupha kwabayishumi bathi ukusetshenziswa kwebutho lezempi kwesinye isikhathi kungathethelelwa emazweni angasongela leli lizwe kodwa angakahlaseli.
- UBush ubonakala enamandla ekuphatheni ubuphekula kunoKerry.
Abanye bazobonakala bethanda uKerry:
- Izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zikhathazekile ngokulahlekelwa inhlonipho emhlabeni wonke yi-United States futhi iningi licabanga ukuthi lokho kuyinkinga enkulu.
- Abayisithupha kwabayishumi bathi abaphathi bakaBush bayashesha ukusebenzisa amandla kunokuzama kanzima ukuthola izixazululo zezokuxhumana.
- Abantu bathambekele kakhulu ekutheni inqubomgomo yezangaphandle kufanele icabangele izithakazelo zamadlelandawonye kunokuthi inqubomgomo yezangaphandle kufanele isekelwe kakhulu ezithakazelweni zase-US.
Inhlolovo ithole ukuthi amaphesenti angu-43 anomuzwa wokuthi ukusetshenziswa kokuhlukumeza ngezinye izikhathi kufanele futhi amanye amaphesenti angu-21 athi akuvamile ukuba kuthethelelwe.
"Isizathu esenza sibe nabo bonke labo bantu abathi singabahlukumeza yingoba basaqhubeka nokwesaba," kusho uKohut. "Leso sici sokwesaba yilokho uBush amenzele khona."
Njengoba uKohut ebona ukhetho: Ukube bekunqunywa ngobuphekula, uBush ubengawina; ukube bekunqunywa ngomnotho kuphela, kungenzeka ukuthi uKerry awine.
"Ngandlela thile, i-Iraq isiyicilongo," esho.
Uma abantu bebuzwa ukuthi ubani ongenza umsebenzi ongcono wokuphatha i-Iraq, uBush noKerry bayaboshelwa, ngokusho kocwaningo lukaPew.
"Yize ukugunyazwa kukaBush e-Iraq kubuhlungu kakhulu (amaphesenti angama-43 avuma), uKerry akakakwenzi lokho kumsebenzele," kusho uKohut.
Uthe ngoLwesithathu esithangamini soMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Nezangaphandle eNew York uthe uKerry ube nempumelelo ethile emhlanganweni wakhe kodwa "ekugcineni, kufanele enze inqubekelaphambili enkingeni kaBush yenqubomgomo yezangaphandle esengozini enkulu - i-Iraq." Ukuvota kwenziwe yiPew Research Centre ngokubambisana nomkhandlu.
Izinkinga zikaBush e-Iraq zibandakanya isibalo sabashonile abasondela kumasosha ase-US angu-950, udlame olubhekiswe kuhulumeni omusha wase-Iraq kanye namasosha ase-US, nokwehluleka ukuthola izikhali zembubhiso, okwakungezinye zezizathu eziyinhloko zesinqumo sikamongameli sokuya empini.
Kodwa uKerry uthwale kanzima ekuvezeni umbono wakhe nge-Iraq, evikela ivoti lakhe eligunyaza impi ngenkathi egxeka ukuziphatha kwabaphathi bakaBush ezimpini nobunzima e-Iraq yangemva kwempi.
Amademokhrasi athi uKerry "unesikhundla esincanyana" futhi amaRepublican abiza isikhundla seDemocrat ngochungechunge lwama-flip-flops.
Ukuvota kukazwelonke kubonise ukuthi umjaho usuwonke usasondele, kanti uKerry uhamba phambili kancane kwezinye izinhlolovo.
Ucwaningo lwe-Pew belusekelwe ikakhulukazi kunhlolovo yabantu abadala abangu-2,009 abathathwe ngoJulayi 8-18 ngephutha lesampula lesampula lokuhlanganisa noma lokususa amaphuzu angu-2.5 kanye nenhlolovo yesibili ethathwe ngo-Agasti. Inhlolovo yesibili yabantu abadala abangu-1,512 kusukela ngomhla ka-Aug. 5-10 inomkhawulo wephutha lesampula lamaphuzu ahlanganisa noma asuse angu-3.
Inhlolovo ka-Agasti yathathwa ukuze kuhlinzekwe ngemiphumela ebuyekeziwe mayelana ne-Iraq kanye nesilinganiso sokugunyazwa komsebenzi kamongameli, esisasele maphakathi nawo-40s.
Chicago Tribune
August 19, 2004
UMKHANKASO 2004
Ukwesaba, izinkinga zabavoti abaphezulu kuhlolovo
Ibhalwe nguStephen J. Hedges
Washington Bureau
Ishicilelwe ngo-Agasti 19, 2004
WASHINGTON โ Ngokokuqala ngqa kusukela ngesikhathi sempi yeVietnam, abavoti bathatha udaba lobushokobezi, impi lezamazwe angaphandle njengezinto eziqakathekileyo ezibhekane lelizwe, njalo lokhu bakwenza ngesilinganiso esikhulu, intuthuko ephathelane lokhetho lukamongameli.
Amaphesenti angu-26 abavoti abafanelekile akholelwa ukuthi ukuphepha kwezwe kanye nenqubomgomo yezangaphandle kubaluleke kakhulu, ngokusho kwenhlolovo ekhishwe ngoLwesithathu nguMkhandlu Wezobudlelwane Bangaphandle kanye nePew Research Center for the People and the Press. Ngokuphambene, amaphesenti angama-26 athi umnotho yiwona obaluleke kakhulu futhi amaphesenti angama-XNUMX acaphuna ezinye izindaba zasekhaya.
Umphumela, okhombisa imibono yabavoti ababalelwa ku-2,000 ababuzwa ekuqaleni kukaJulayi kanye nabanye abayi-1,500 ekuqaleni kwale nyanga, uphakamisa ukuthi ukukhathazeka nge-Iraq nobushokobezi kungaba neqhaza elikhulu ekukhetheni abavoti abakwenzayo okhethweni lwangoNovemba 2.
Emikhankasweni yakamuva, inqubomgomo yezangaphandle ibuyele emuva emnothweni nakwezinye izindaba zasekhaya. Kodwa ithemba lokunye ukuhlasela kwamaphekula e-US, ukuthunyelwa okukhulu kwamasosha aseMelika phesheya kwezilwandle kanye nomphumela ongaqinisekile wokulwa e-Iraq nase-Afghanistan ngokusobala kuyimbangela yokwanda kokukhathazeka phakathi kwabavoti eminyakeni yamuva mayelana nokuphepha kwezwe.
โNgo-1996 kwakungamaphesenti angu-5 kwathi ngo-2000 kwakungamaphesenti angu-12,โ kusho umqondisi wesikhungo sePew u-Andrew Kohut, ebhekisela kubavoti ababala impi, ubushokobezi kanye nenqubomgomo yezangaphandle njengento ebakhathaza kakhulu. "Iya phezulu ... futhi ngicabanga ukuthi izoqhubeka."
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zalabo abahlolwa bathi bakhathazekile ngokulahlekelwa inhlonipho yamazwe ngamazwe e-US
Ukuhlola okwenziwa ezinye izinhlangano zokuvota kuphinde kwaphakamisa ukuthi ukuphepha kuzwelonke kuyindaba yokukhula kwethonya emncintiswaneni kamongameli, futhi imikhankaso kaMongameli Bush kanye nomphikisi weDemocratic Alliance uSen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) balungise amasu kulo mkhuba.
U-Kerry ugcizelele kakhulu indikimba yakhe yezempi kanye nezokuphepha kuzwelonke engqungqutheleni yeDemocratic National Convention ngoJulayi, kanti uBush kulindeleke ukuthi agcizelele izihloko ezifanayo emhlanganweni weRiphabhulikhi.
Inhlolovo entsha ikhombisa ukukhathazeka okukhulu kwabavoti ngokuvikeleka kwezwe kunezinye izinhlolovo zakamuva.
Ngokwesibonelo, inhlolovo yaphakathi noJulayi eyenziwe yi-Roper Centre for Public Opinion Research yathola ukuthi amaphesenti angu-17 abavoti ayethanda kakhulu ukuzwa ngezinhlelo zabazongenela ukhetho lokubhekana nempi yobushokobezi, kuyilapho amaphesenti angu-34 ayefuna ukuzwa izisombululo โngomsebenzi wasekhaya. izinkingaโ kanti amaphesenti angu-26 ayefuna imikhankaso ibhekane nezindaba zemisebenzi nomnotho.
Olunye ucwaningo lwangoJulayi olwenziwa yiThe Washington Post luthole ukuthi amaphesenti angu-19 abavoti acabanga ukuthi ubushokobezi yinkinga ebaluleke kakhulu ebhekene nesizwe, abanye abangamaphesenti angu-19 bathi i-Iraq iyona okubakhathaza kakhulu futhi abangamaphesenti angu-29 bacaphuna umnotho. Kuhlanganiswe, ubuphekula kanye nempi kuleyo nhlolovo izosondela kusibalo sePew esingamaphesenti angama-41.
Imikhankaso kaBush noKerry ikubeke kwacaca ukuthi basazoqhubeka nokuqhakambisa izingqikithi zempi ngokhetho. Isu, ngokusho kukaPeter Feaver, uprofesa wesayensi yezepolitiki eDuke University, likhombisa kokubili ukukhathazeka phakathi kwabavoti kanye nokubala okusebenzayo kwezepolitiki phakathi komkhankaso ngamunye.
"Ngicabanga ukuthi i-artifact yezinto ezimbili," kusho u-Feaver. โEsinye isimo somhlaba wangempela, hhayi nje ngemuva kwe-9/11, kodwa iqiniso lokuthi siphakathi kwezimpi ezimbili ezibalulekile e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq zombili ezishubile. . . . Isici sesibili, esiveza iqiniso lezepolitiki, ukuthi zombili izinhlangothi zenza umzamo wokudlala ngokuvikeleka kwezwe.
U-Feaver wengeze ngokuthi, โKuyingxenye yezibalo zeqembu, ngokungananazi, ukuthi kunethuba langempela lokuthi kungase kuphinde kube nesiteleka samaphekula phakathi kwamanje nokhetho, futhi alikho iqembu elifuna ukuzithola likhuluma ngezinhlelo zesidlo sasemini esikoleni.โ
Kodwa imiphumela ye-Pew ayinikezi isignali ecacile yokuthi yiziphi izinzuzo zekhandidethi.
Abavoti banikeza uBush amamaki aphezulu, ngokwesibonelo, lapho ebuzwa ukuthi bayavumelana yini nokuphatha kwakhe izinsongo zobuphekula. Amaphesenti angu-58 abuzwa ocwaningweni lwe-Pew-CFR athe ayagunyaza ukusebenza kukamengameli ekulweni nobushokobezi.
I-Iraq ingenye indaba. Iningi labavoti, okungamaphesenti angama-53, lithe liyaseseka isinqumo sikaBush sokuya empini e-Iraq. Kepha lokho kungaphansi kakhulu kwamaphesenti angama-74 abanikeze leyo mpendulo ngoMashi.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amaphesenti angu-52 ayayiphikisa indlela uBush ayisingatha ngayo impi namuhla, uma kuqhathaniswa namaphesenti angu-43 avumelana nesenzo sikamongameli.
Ukuthi leyo mizwa ingasiza uKerry akucaci, nakuba ucwaningo luveza ukuthi abavoti abangakanqunywa bahambisana kakhulu nabasekeli bakaKerry e-Iraq.
Isibonelo, ucwaningo lwathola ukuthi amaphesenti angama-79 abalandeli bakaBush akholelwa ukuthi umongameli unohlelo olucacile ngekusasa lase-Iraq kanti amaphesenti angama-94 abalandeli bakaKerry acabanga ukuthi umongameli akanalo. Phakathi kwabavoti abasafufusa, amaphesenti angama-62 ahambisana nabalandeli bakaKerry abakholelwa ukuthi umengameli akanalo uhlelo olucacile.
"I-Iraq isiphenduke ikhadi lecilongo," kusho uKohut. "Nakuba ukugunyazwa kukaBush e-Iraq kubuhlungu kakhulu, uKerry akakakwenzi lokho kumsebenzele."
Lolu cwaningo luphinde lwathola ukuthi abavoti beRiphabhulikhi neDemocratic Alliance, hhayi nje abangenele ukhetho lobumongameli, bahlukene kakhulu embuzweni wokuthi i-US ithathwa kanjani emhlabeni.
Phakathi kwamaRiphabhulikhi, amaphesenti angu-63 athi i-US ibaluleke kakhulu futhi inamandla kunangaphambili, uma kuqhathaniswa namaphesenti angu-38 ayecabanga kanjalo ngaphambi nje kokuhlasela kukaSeptemba 11. Amaphesenti angama-32 nje amaDemocrats, ngakolunye uhlangothi, anomuzwa wokuthi i-US inamandla kakhulu namuhla, umphumela ofanayo nenhlolovo eyabhaliswa ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba 2001.
Amaphesenti angama-67 aphelele alabo ababuzwa bathi i-US ayihlonishwa kangako emhlabeni namuhla. Kodwa-ke, amaphesenti angama-80 amaDemocrats athi i-US ayihlonishwa kancane futhi amaphesenti angama-47 amaRepublican azizwa ngaleyo ndlela. Inani elikhulu lamaRiphabhulikhi, amaphesenti angama-34, nawo azwakale ukuthi i-US ihlonishwa namuhla njengoba bekunjalo esikhathini esidlule.
Lolu cwaningo, olwathathwa ngemuva kwezinyanga ezimbalwa zokusabalala kwezindaba ezijulile mayelana nokuphathwa kabi kweziboshwa zase-Iraq ngamasosha aseMelika e-Iraq, luphinde lwathola ukuthi amaphesenti angama-43 akholelwa ukuthi ukuhlukunyezwa kweziboshwa kwesinye isikhathi kungathethelelwa. Iningi, elingamaphesenti angu-53, likholelwa ukuthi ukuhlukunyezwa akufanele neze kusetshenziswe noma kungalokothi kusetshenziswe.
Ukuvota kwenziwa ngoJulayi 8-18 nangoJulayi 30-Aug. 12. Kube nomehluko omncane ezimpendulweni ezinikezwe phakathi nezinkathi ezimbili zocwaningo.
Los Angeles Times
Agasti 19, 2004 ULwesine
I-Home Home
ISIQEPHU: IZINDABA EZISEMQOKA; Ihhovisi Likazwelonke; Ingxenye A; Pg. 12
ISIHLOKO: Umjaho ENDLU OMHLOPHE;
Abavoti Bakhathazeke Ngesithombe SaseMelika Somhlaba Wonke;
Inhlolovo ikhombisa ukwesekwa okucekela phansi impi kanye nokunganeliseki ngenqubomgomo kaBush yezangaphandle.
NGOKUQINILE: UTyler Marshall, Umbhali Wezisebenzi ze-Times
IDETHI: WASHINGTON
Ngokokuqala ngqa selokhu kwaqala iMpi YaseVietnam, ubudlelwano beMelika nomhlaba wonke bubhekwe ngabomvu njengodaba olubaluleke kakhulu kubavoti njengoba kuyiwa okhethweni lukamongameli lwangoNovemba, ngokusho kocwaningo olukhishwe ngoLwesithathu.
Nakuba ucwaningo lwathola ukuthi abalandeli bakaMongameli Bush kanye nomphikisi weDemocratic Alliance uSen. John F. Kerry babehlukene kakhulu ngemibono yabo mayelana nezindaba eziningi zenqubomgomo yezangaphandle, akukho okukhombisa ukuthi noma ikhandidethi lijabulele inzuzo enkulu.
"Kunezindaba ezinhle kubo bobabili kanye nezimpawu eziyisixwayiso kubo bobabili," kusho uJames Lindsay, iphini likamongameli woMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Nangaphandle.
Lolu cwaningo olwenziwe yisikhungo esizinze eWashington, iPew Research Center for the People and the Press ngokubambisana neCouncil on Foreign Relations, luphakamise ukuthi ukucekela phansi ukusekelwa kwabavoti ngempi yase-Iraq kanye nezinga elikhulu lokungeneliseki ngokuziphatha kwabaphathi bakaBush. Inqubomgomo yezangaphandle ingalimaza umengameli ngoNovemba.
Kodwa-ke, uBush uthole amaphuzu angcono kakhulu ekuphatheni kwakhe ngokuhlukene impi yobushokobezi - udaba olwahlulelwa abavoti njengolubaluleke kakhulu kunempi yase-Iraq noma inqubomgomo evamile yangaphandle.
Nakuba abaphathi bakaBush bebelokhu bezama ukuhlanganisa i-Iraq nempi yobushokobezi, ucwaningo lwePew luveze ukuthi abavoti bababona ngokwehlukana.
"Okungimangaze kakhulu [mayelana nocwaningo] ukuthi singabona ngokucacile kanjani lezi zindlela ezimbili eziphikisanayo - impumelelo empini yokwesaba nokudumazeka ngempi yase-Iraq," kusho u-Andrew Kohut, umqondisi wePew Centre.
Abanye ababambe iqhaza ocwaningweni bathi imininingwane iphakamisa ukuthi amandla kaBush odabeni lobuphekula anganele ukuvala ubuthakathaka bakhe kwenye indawo.
"Ngaphandle kwempi yobushokobezi, uKerry ubezohamba phambili," kusho uWalter Russell Mead, isikhulu senqubomgomo yezangaphandle yaseMelika emkhandlwini futhi ongumeluleki wocwaningo.
Inikeza isikhuthazo kumaDemocrats, inhlolovo ithole ubufakazi bokuthi abantu baseMelika abaningi kunangaphambili โbabekwazi kahle - futhi bakhathazekile - ukulahlekelwa inhlonipho yamazwe ngamazwe nge-United States," udaba olubonakala ludlala esithembisweni sikaKerry somkhankaso wokubuyisela izwe laseMelika. isithombe somhlaba wonke.
Imininingwane iphinde yakhombisa ukuthi iningi labavoti abaguqukayo babelane ngezimo zengqondo zabalandeli bakaKerry ngalolu daba.
ULindsay, iPhini likaMengameli walo mkhandlu, uthe ukuncipha kokwesekwa kukamengameli ekusingatheni impi yase-Iraq kubeka uBush izingozi eziningi okhethweni, nokuqubule imibuzo ngobuholi bakhe kwezinye izindaba.
U-Lindsay waphikisa ngokuthi lokhu bekuvele kusenzeka emibonweni kaBush yokuphatha umnotho kanye nasekuphatheni kwakhe konke kwenqubomgomo yangaphandle.
Inhlolovo ithole ukuthi iningi labavoti elinciphayo lisakholelwa ukuthi ukuya empini e-Iraq kwakuyisinqumo esifanele kodwa iningi elifanayo elincanyana - ama-52% - aliyivumanga indlela uBush abesingatha ngayo ingxabano.
Ngesikhathi kuqhubeka impi ngoMashi 2003, u-77% wagunyaza ukuthi umengameli ubeyisingatha kanjani impi, kusho ucwaningo.
Izibalo ziphinde zaveza ukuthi i-44% yabavoti ikholelwa ukuthi ukuhlasela kwe-Iraq kubuhlungu kunokuba kusize i-United States empini yobushokobezi.
Ngemuva kokuwa kweBaghdad ngo-Ephreli 2003, ama-22% alabo ababuzwa babenalowo mbono.
Ezindabeni eziningi ezihlukahlukene, inhlolovo ibonise ukuhlukana okujulile nokwandayo phakathi kwamaRiphabhulikhi namaDemocrats, okunikeza ubufakazi obengeziwe bokubamba abavoti abahlukene kakhulu.
Umehluko omkhulu kakhulu wenzeke emibonweni yokuma kweMelika emhlabeni jikelele, lapho u-80% wabavoti beDemokhrasi kanye nengxenye yesithathu yabantu abazimele bethi i-US ibihlonishwa kancane namuhla kunangaphambili, kuyilapho abangaphansi kwengxenye yamaRiphabhulikhi ahlolwa babelane ngaleyo ndlela.
Komunye wemiphumela evusa inkanuko, inhlolovo yathola ukuthi iningi likholelwa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kokuhlukunyezwa kwabasolwa ngamaphekula kungathetheleleka, nakuba u-15% uthe amaqhinga anjalo akufanele asetshenziswe.
โAbantu babona umuntu ozama ukulungisa izikhali zamaphekula zokucekela phansi inqwaba njengomuntu osevele ephula imithetho emibi kunokuhlukunyezwa,โ kusho uMead.
I-New York Times
Agasti 19, 2004 ULwesine
Inguqulo Yakamuva - Okokugcina
ISIQEPHU: Isigaba A; Ikholomu 1; Ideski Langaphandle; Pg. 10
ISIHLOKO: Abavoti BaseMelika Bakhombisa Ukukhathazeka Ngokuvikeleka Nezindaba Zangaphandle
NGOKUQINILE: Ngu-BRIAN KNOWLTON; I-International Herald Tribune
IDETHI: WASHINGTON, Aug. 18
Ngokokuqala ngqa emashumini eminyaka, izindaba zangaphandle kanye nezindaba zokuphepha kwezwe ziye zavela emkhankasweni kamongameli waseMelika njengokukhathazeka okukhulu phakathi kwabavoti kunezindaba zezomnotho, ngokocwaningo olusha.
Ucwaningo olukhishwe ngoLwesithathu yi-Independent Pew Research Center, luthole ukuthi abantu baseMelika abane kwabayishumi manje bacaphuna izindaba zamazwe omhlaba nezokuvikela njengezinkinga ezibaluleke kakhulu izwe elibhekene nazo. Owodwa kwaba-4 kuphela okhulume ngezinto ezithinta umnotho.
Hhayi kusukela ngo-1972, phakathi neMpi YeVietnam, babe nokukhathazeka kwezokuphepha kanye nezindaba zakwamanye amazwe njengamanje emkhankasweni, kusho ababhali bocwaningo. Ucwaningo luphakamisa ukuthi imibono nge-Iraq kanye nempumelelo noma ukwehluleka kwabaphathi ekunqobeni ukuphikiswa okunodlame lapho kungaba nomthelela omkhulu emncintiswaneni phakathi kukaMongameli Bush kanye noSenator John Kerry, ngokusho komqondisi we-Pew, u-Andrew Kohut.
Lokhu kungenza i-Iraq "iphuzu" noma "ikhadi lecilongo" emkhankasweni ozayo, esho.
Lolu cwaningo luthole ukuthi imibono yabantu baseMelika nge-Iraq nezinye izindaba zenqubomgomo yezangaphandle ishintshile yafinyelela ezingeni elingajwayelekile, iphinde yaqinisekisa umbono wokuthi kulezo zinkinga abazongenela ukhetho kuzomele balwele ukwesekwa phakathi kwenani elincane labavoti abangakanqunywa.
Isibonelo, ukwesekwa kweRiphabhulikhi ngemfundiso kaBush yokuthi impi yangaphambi kokuphuma ingathethelelwa ngokumelene nezitha ezingaba khona ikhulile (kuya kumaphesenti angu-88 isuka kumaphesenti angu-79 ngonyaka odlule) kuyilapho ukusekelwa kweDemocratic kwayo kwehlile (kuya kumaphesenti angu-44 kusuka kumaphesenti angu-58).
Cishe inani elifanayo labantu baseMelika abathi bathanda inqubomgomo yezangaphandle โeqaphileโ njengento โenqumayoโ.
"Impikiswano mayelana nokuthi kungcono yini ukuthandwa noma ukwesatshwa ikhula njengenkinga enkulu," kusho u-Lee Feinstein, umlingani ophezulu eMkhandlwini Wezobudlelwane Bangaphandle, obambisene ocwaningweni lwe-Pew.
I-Pew Centre, ithembele engxenyeni yokwaziswa okuvela okhethweni oludlule lwe-Gallup, yathi izindaba zezokuphepha nezangaphandle zazibusa yonke imikhankaso kusukela ngo-1948 kuya ku-1972. Kodwa kusukela ngo-1976, unyaka ngemva kokuwa kweSaigon, izinkinga zezomnotho zathatha izintambo. Lo mkhuba wanda ngo-1992, lapho abasizi bomkhankaso bakaClinton beyalwa ukuthi, โUmnotho, ubuwula.โ Abavoti ngalowo nyaka bacaphuna izinkinga zezomnotho izikhathi ezingu-18 kunezindaba zakwamanye amazwe nezokuphepha.
Ukuvota kwenziwa ngocingo kusuka ngoJulayi 8 kuya kuJulayi 18 phakathi kwama-2,009 aseMelika. Amasampula amancane alandelwe ekuqaleni kwale nyanga. Imajini yephutha ibihlanganisa noma kukhishwe amaphuzu angu-2.5.
Izifundo zocwaningo zinikeza ikamu ngalinye isikhuthazo, kusho uWalter Mead woMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Nangaphandle.
Nakuba abantu baseMelika benikeza uMnu. Bush amamaki aphezulu emkhankasweni wokulwa nobushokobezi, kanti abayisi-9 kwabayishumi bathi ukuvikela i-United States ekuhlaselweni kwamaphekula kuyinto ehamba phambili, "uKerry uyahola uma ubuza ukuthi yikuphi okungcono kunqubomgomo yangaphandle," uMnu. Kusho uMead.
U-Pew kanye nolunye ucwaningo lunikeza uMnu. Kerry ithuba elihle emnothweni. Kepha embuzweni wokuthi ngubani ongenza umsebenzi ongcono wokuphatha i-Iraq, laba ababili abazongenela ukhetho baboshiwe, kutholwe ukuvota kukaPew.
Uma izinkinga zase-Iraq zibhebhethekise ukukhula kokukhathazeka ngezindaba zangaphandle, ukuthuthukiswa komnotho kwakamuva kungachaza ukwehla okuhlobene nokukhathazeka ngalokho.
UMnu. Kerry usegxeke kaningi uMnu Bush, ethi umengameli ulahlekelwe yimisebenzi eyizigidi, wathi uzokwenza kangcono. Kodwa uMnu Bush uveze ukudalwa kwamakhulu ezinkulungwane zemisebenzi wathi kuseza.
Usongo lobuphekula lusaqhubeka nokubumba ngokujulile izimo zengqondo zomphakathi mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwamandla kanye nezinga lezinyathelo zokuvikela izwe lakubo. Ngenkathi abantu baseMelika abathathu kwabayi-3 bethi uhulumeni wobumbano uye weqisa ekubekeni imingcele yenkululeko njengengxenye yezinyathelo ezihloselwe ukulwa nobuphekula, aba-10 kwabayishumi bazwakalise ukukhathazeka ngokuthi akenzanga okwanele ukuvikela izwe.
"Kunezindawo eziningi ku-poll lapho ungabona khona ukuthi ukushaqeka kukaSeptemba 11 kuwukukhathazeka okuphakathi komphakathi waseMelika," kusho uMnu Mead.
Enye yalezo ezibonakala iyinkolelo, ebanjwe ngamaphesenti angu-43, ukuthi ukuhlukunyezwa ngezinye izikhathi kungase kulungiswe izimo, inani eliphawulekayo uma kucatshangelwa ihlazo lokuhlukunyezwa kwejele e-Iraq.
UCarroll Doherty wePew Centre uthe umphakathi ubufuna ngokusobala ubudlelwano obuqinile namadlelandawonye, โโnjengoba uMnu. Kerry ethembisile, kanye nezinyathelo eziqinile zokulwa nobushokobezi, umbono ohlobene kakhulu noMnu Bush emqondweni womphakathi.
โUmphakathi awuboni ukungqubuzana lapho,โ usho kanje. "Bafuna bobabili."
The Washington Post
Agasti 19, 2004 ULwesine
I-Final Edition
ISIQEPHU: Isigaba; A06
ISIHLOKO: I-US Ihamba Kanjani e-Iraq May Sway Swing Voters
NGOKUQINILE: URobin Wright, Umbhali Wabasebenzi baseWashington
Inqubomgomo yezangaphandle kanye nokukhathazeka kwezokuphepha kuzwelonke kubhekwa njengokubaluleke kakhulu ngabantu baseMelika kulo nyaka womkhankaso kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi kusukela ngeMpi yaseVietnam, futhi imibono yempumelelo noma ukwehluleka e-Iraq ingaba yinto evelele ekushintsheni abavoti abashintshashintshayo ngoNovemba, ngokusho kokuvota okusha okwenziwe yi-Pew. Isikhungo Sokucwaninga Sabantu Nabezindaba.
Cishe amaphesenti angama-41 alabo abahlolisisiwe babheka izindaba zamazwe ngamazwe njengempi yase-Iraq kanye nobuphekula njengezinkinga ezibaluleke kakhulu ezibhekene nezwe, kuyilapho cishe amaphesenti angu-26 anomuzwa wokuthi izinkinga zezomnotho zibaluleke kakhulu, ngokusho kocwaningo lwePew, olwenziwe ngokubambisana noMkhandlu Wezangaphandle. Ubudlelwano.
"Ngaphandle koshintsho olukhulu emibonweni yomphakathi ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, ukhetho lwango-2004 luzoba olokuqala kusukela esikhathini saseVietnam lapho izindaba zangaphandle kanye nezindaba zokuphepha kwezwe zibaluleke kakhulu kunomnotho," kuphetha umbiko wePew.
Kepha njengabavoti abaningi, abavoti abajikijelayo - labo abangazibophezele kunoma yiliphi ilungu, okuhlanganisa nabaningi ezifundeni ezisezinkundleni zempi - bahlukaniswa ngokuthi yiliphi ikhandidethi elinamandla kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle kanye nobushokobezi, kutholwe inhlolovo. Abavoti be-Swing bavame ukuvumelana kakhulu namaDemocrats ezindabeni zenqubomgomo yangaphandle, kodwa imibono yabo isondelene nezikhundla zeRiphabhulikhi ekulweni nobushokobezi, kusho abavoti.
Lolu cwaningo lufake nenani lezimpawu eziyingozi kuBush, nokho, okuhlanganisa nabavoti abashwibayo.
E-Iraq, esikhathini esingaphezu kwenyanga ngemva kokudluliselwa kwamandla ezombusazwe kuhulumeni wesikhashana, ucwaningo lwathola ukuthi cishe isigamu sabantu baseMelika abahlolisisiwe - amaphesenti angu-52 - abavumelani nokuphathwa kukamongameli kwenqubomgomo yase-Iraq. Sekukonke, amaphesenti angama-58 athi abaphathi bakaBush babengenalo "uhlelo olucacile" lokuletha i-Iraq "esiphethweni esiyimpumelelo" - ingxenye ekhule phakathi kwabavoti abaguqukayo, yafinyelela kumaphesenti angama-62.
Ezindabeni eziyisishiyagalombili kwezingu-11 zenqubomgomo yezangaphandle okhethweni, "imibono yabavoti abashintshashintshayo isondelene neyabalandeli bakaKerry kunaleyo yabavoti bakaBush," kusho umbiko.
"Ukunganeliseki nge-Iraq kudala imibono mayelana nenqubomgomo yezangaphandle kakhulu, uma kungenjalo, ukukhathazeka okuqhubekayo kwabantu baseMelika ngobuphekula," kuphetha lo mbiko. "Ukuqhubeka nokunganeliseki ngendlela izinto ezenzeka ngayo e-Iraq kugcizelela ukugxekwa komphakathi kwendlela yokuphatha kaBush yokuvikela izwe."
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uSen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) akakaphumeleli ekukholiseni abavoti abaguquguqukayo ukuthi unikeza omunye umbono osebenzayo, abavoti bathola.
"I-Iraq ingaba yiphuzu elibalulekile," kusho uMqondisi we-Pew u-Andrew Kohut engxoxweni. โKodwa nakuba izinto zizimbi e-Iraq . . . U-Kerry akakadayisi nase-Iraq. Abantu mancane amathuba okuthi bathi bayamethemba kunokuba bamethembe uBush, abangahambisani naye.โ
Inhlolovo yenziwe phakathi kwabantu abadala abangu-2,009 kusukela ngomhlaka-8 kuya ku-18 Julayi, ngesibuyekezo nge-Iraq eyenziwa Aug. 5 kuya ku-10 phakathi kwabantu abadala abangu-1,512. Umkhawulo wephutha ubungamaphesenti ahlanganisiwe noma asusa angu-2.5 kuyo yonke inhlolovo kanye namaphesenti angu-3.5 amaphuzu emibuzo esekelwe ezimpendulweni ezisuka kwesinye sezinkathi zohlolovo ezimbili.
Lolu cwaningo luthole ukwanda okukhulu kwesibalo sabantu baseMelika abazwakalise ukungabaza ngokuthi umkhankaso wase-Iraq usizile yini impi yobushokobezi: amaphesenti angama-45 athi asizile, ehle asuka kumaphesenti angama-62 ngoFebhuwari.
Cishe abayisithupha kwabayi-10 baseMelika bathi uBush "usheshe kakhulu" ekusebenziseni amasosha, kanti owesithathu uthe wenze imizamo eyanele yokuthola izixazululo zezokuxhumana, okuyisibalo esehle cishe ngesigamu selokhu kwaqala impi yase-Iraq, kutholakale ucwaningo. . UKerry ugxile kuzo zombili lezi zinkinga ekugxekeni kwakhe uBush ngesikhathi somkhankaso.
Ngaphandle kosizi lwenqubomgomo yaseMelika nge-Iraq, amaphesenti angama-54 athe athanda ukuhlala e-Iraq kuze kube yilapho isimo sesizinzile. Futhi abantu baseMelika abayisithupha kwabayi-10 basekela inqubomgomo kaBush eyimpikiswano yeziteleka zangaphambi kokubhekana nezinsongo ezicatshangwayo, noma ngabe i-United States ibingahlosiwe.
Lolu cwaningo lwathola ukuthi amaphesenti angu-64 akholelwa ukuthi okungenani kunezimo ezithile lapho ukuhlukunyezwa kufanele kugwemeke abasolwa ngokuba ngamaphekula.
U-Kohut uthe abantu abane kwabayi-10 okwaxoxwa nabo bacaphuna izindaba zamazwe ngamazwe nezokuvikela njengezibaluleke kakhulu ukuchezuka kwemikhuba yakamuva. Ngo-1996, amaphesenti angu-5 abaphendulile okhethweni olufanayo bathi babesekela izinqumo zabo kunqubomgomo yangaphandle noma ukuphepha kwezwe, ingxenye ekhuphuke yafinyelela kumaphesenti angu-12 ngo-2000, esho.
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