Okhethweni lukamongameli lwakamuva e-Iran, u-Mahmood Ahmadinejad, umkhuzi wezempi ongaziwa oqinile, wawina. Ukunqoba kwakhe kwakumangaza njengoba abaningi babebikezele ukuthi uHashemi Rafsanjani uzoba umongameli olandelayo wase-Iran. U-Rafsanjani, mhlawumbe indoda yesibili enamandla kakhulu e-Islamic Republic, wesekwa umfelandawonye obanzi wama-reformists kanye ne-pragmatist elites. Ukushaqeka kwalokhu kunqoba okumangazayo kungase kuchaze ngokwengxenye uhlobo olubi lwezinye zokuhlaziya ezalandela. Okugqama kakhulu ukwehluleka ukubhekana nezimbangela nesizinda esijulile salesi sigameko, nokuhlaziya imiphumela yaso. Lesi sihloko siwumzamo wokubhekana nalezi zinkinga. Ekuqaleni ukuqaphela okumbalwa kungase kube usizo:
Background
E-Islamic Republic, ukhetho, okuhlanganisa nolomongameli, alunantando yeningi, izinqubo ezilawulwa ngokuqinile. Umthetho uphuca izakhamuzi eziningi njengabesifazane, izinkolo ezincane (kuhlanganise namaSulumane angewona amaShi'ite) nabamelene nezombusazwe abamelene nezwe lezenkolo, njll ekubeni bamele umongameli. Lokhu kuphoqelelwa ngokusebenza ngamandla angenamkhawulo oMkhandlu wababheki [1]. Lo Mkhandlu ubulokhu wenqaba noma ubani ombheka njengongafanele imibuthano ebusayo. Ngakho-ke, empeleni, ukhetho eRiphabhulikhi YamaSulumane alulutho nje '.ibhithi'[inkulumo yokwethembeka] komunye wabambalwa, futhi ngokuvamile okuwukuphela komuntu, uMkhandlu Wababheki oye wadabula inetha yawo [2]. Ezimweni ezinjalo ukungahlanganyeli okhethweni, esikhundleni sokubonisa ukunganaki kwabavoti, kungenye yezindlela zokuveza 'ukuphikisa' , indlela yokubhikishela umbuso nokungabaza ukuba semthethweni kwawo [3].
Lezo zigaba zombuso ezimele ukhetho lwezikhathi ezithile, okuhlanganisa nehhovisi likamongameli, ngokuvamile zibaluleke okwesibili ekwakhekeni kwamandla. Uhlelo luzungeza indikimba engakhethiwe, eholwa nguMholi Ophakeme, vali-e- faqih, ngamandla angenamkhawulo ngempela. Kulapha lapho kuthathwa khona zonke izinqumo ezinkulu, ikakhulukazi ngemuva kokushona kuka-Ayatollah Khomeini futhi esikhundleni sakhe kwangena u-Ayatollah Khamenei'. Ihhovisi likamongameli kanye nabaphathi ekugcineni banomthwalo wemfanelo omkhulu ' noma njengoba uMongameli ophumayo u-Mohammad Khatami ekubeka 'badlala indima yomuntu ohamba ngezinyawo' . Nokho ngenxa yesimo esigcwele amaqembu ezikhulu ezibusayo, umuntu ophethe isigungu esiphezulu uba ngobalulekile njengoba lokhu kuqokwa kungase kubangele ukusatshalaliswa kwezinsiza zomphakathi futhi kwandise ikhono lalo lonke uhlaka lombuso lokusebenza. Ngakho-ke ukulawulwa kwezinhlaka ezikhethiwe, ikakhulukazi ihhovisi likamongameli, nakho kubangwa kakhulu, futhi kuncike ekuxoxisaneni okushubile, phakathi kwamaqembu ahlukene.
Umsebenzi obaluleke kakhulu wokhetho e-Islamic Republic ulele lapha ngqo: okungukuthi ukwabiwa kabusha kwamandla phakathi kwamaqembu ahlukahlukene abusayo. Lo mncintiswano ushuba ikakhulukazi ngezikhathi lapho inkinga yangaphakathi yombuso ishuba nalapho izinqubo zokuxoxisana ezivamile zingakwazi ukufinyelela 'ekuvumelaneni' . 'Ukhetho'kulezi zimo luba indlela yokwabiwa kabusha kwamandla, lapho amaqembu ehlola amandla awo ngokumelene nokuba semthethweni kokhetho. Kuze kube wukhetho lwakamuva, umkhuba ojwayelekile e-Islamic Republic kwakuwukuba wonke amaqembu agcine imithetho yomdlalo wentando yeningi wangaphakathi. Ngemva kwenqubo yokuqala yokukhipha ukhula yoMkhandlu Wabanakekeli, izikhungo zamandla azizange zingenelele zivuna umuntu oyedwa noma omunye umuntu ngaphandle 'kohlaka lomthetho' , noma ngokunembe kakhudlwana, akuzange kubukele phansi ukubonakala okungokomthetho okucacile kakhulu [4].
Okuthi uma uthi nhlรก nje kuhlukanise ukhetho lwakamuva e-Islamic Republic kukho konke olwandulelayo ukuthi ngokokuqala ngqa imithetho yomdlalo wentando yeningi phakathi kwezinhlangothi ezahlukene zombuso ibukelwa phansi ngokusobala. Ukukopela, esimweni sokukhiqiza amavoti bekuhlale kuwumkhuba ojwayelekile, noma ngabe ngokugxusha amabhokisi okuvota, noma ukubala ngokungeyikho lokhu noma leya ndawo yokuvota ngokuvuna ikhandidethi. I-Council of Guardians ivame ukumemezela amavoti angenalutho nangenalutho kwabanye abakhethiwe. Ekugcineni inani eliphelele lamavoti afakwe okhethweni lihlala libhucungwa. Lokhu, phela, indlela yokufuna ukuba semthethweni okukhulu phakathi komphakathi ovotayo kulo lonke uhlelo. Lokhu kukhwabanisa, nokho, bekuhlale kwenzeka ngemvume efanayo phakathi kwamaqembu, okucatshangwa ukuthi ngaphandle kokulimaza amathuba okhetho lomuntu oyedwa noma omunye umuntu.
Okungakaze kubonwe nakancane yilokho okwenzeka ngoJuni. Umhlaba ubone inkohliso yesakhiwo, ezweni lonke futhi ehleleke kakhulu, eholwa esiqongweni sephiramidi yamandla ivuna ikhandidethi eyodwa engazange ithathe umhlaba kuphela, kodwa ingxenye enkulu yeqembu elibusayo lase-Iran ngokumangala. Ukuma kanye nobubanzi balolu hlelo kwakungeke kube ihaba ukusho ukuthi u-Ahmadinejad, umkhuzi weRevolutionary Guards Corps, wathatha isigodlo sikamongameli ngokuvukela umbuso ngaphandle kwegazi noma njengomkhuzi wamavukelambuso uZolqadr wathi kamuva ' indlela eyinkimbinkimbi 'ยฆ kanye [ngokusebenzisa] ukuhlela okunezendlalelo eziningi'[5].
Lolu khetho luphinde lwenziwa ngesikhathi sezigigaba ezingakaze zibonwe kulesi sifunda. Mayelana neMpumalanga Ephakathi, i-Iran isesimweni esiqine kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokungenelela kwezempi 'kwezitha' zayo zesikhathi eside, i-United States neBrithani. EMpumalanga, umbuso wamaTaliban (owacishe waya nawo empini ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yawo-1990) uyanqotshwa, futhi abaningi ababambisene ne-Iran sebebuyele emandleni njengezinduna zempi zesifunda, njengombusi wesifundazwe saseHerat entshonalanga ye-Afghanistan ngaphansi kwe-pro- Inkosi yempi yase-Iran u-Haji Ismail Khan. Nokho impumelelo enkulu ye-Iran yamazwe ngamazwe isizuzwe e-Iraq. Ngaphandle kokudubula nokukodwa, ababonanga nje kuphela ukususwa kombuso kaSaddam wamaBathist 'โ umakhelwane ababemzonda ngaphezu kuka-Israel kanye ne-US 'โ kodwa ukungena emandleni kwabalandeli babo, amaqembu amaShi'a kanye namasosha. 'ye-Islamic Daawa'(iqembu likaNdunankulu wokuhlala e-Iraq) kanye namanye amaqembu amakhulu ku-Shiite United Iraqi Alliance njenge-Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), ukwabelana ngamandla ne-Kurdish PUK kanye ne-KDP. Zonke izinhlangano ezaziwa kakhulu ngokuthola ukwesekwa kwezempi, kwezezimali nezepolitiki okuvela e-Iran kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1980. Lokhu, kanye nezinxushunxushu ezidalwe ukuhlasela kwamasosha e-Iraq kuyingxenye yesizathu sokuthi kungani umbuso wamaSulumane e-Iran wazizwa uqiniseka ngokwanele ukuthatha ubungozi obungakaze bubonwe kulolu khetho.
Ngenxa yalolu khetho, ngokokuqala ngqa empilweni yeRiphabhulikhi YamaSulumane, cishe zonke izinhlaka nezikhungo zamandla, ezikhethwayo noma ngenye indlela, zinikezelwe ekulawuleni okuphelele kwama-conservatives. Kuzovela phezulu ukuthi amandla ezepolitiki manje asefana futhi agxile esicongweni sombuso, ezandleni zoMholi wawo Ophakeme, u-Ayatollah Ali Khamenei'. Kodwa-ke, kunobufakazi bokuthi ukuketula umbuso okwenziwa ngemuva kwamakhethini okhetho kwakungaqondisiwe nje kuphela kuma-reformists, noma ikhandidethi ehamba phambili u-Hashemi Rafsanjani, kodwa ngokumelene neningi lamaqembu akhona ku-oligarchy ebusayo [6].
Akungabazeki ukuthi, u-Ahmadinejad nabalandeli bakhe basophikweni oluqinile lweqembu elibusayo. Kodwa-ke, phakathi kwemibuthano ehlukahlukene elondolozayo, u-Ahmadinejad, ikakhulukazi wamaqembu aqanjwe kakhulu amasha-ama-conservatives. Wayengomunye wabasunguli bamaqembu abizwa nge-Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran (abadegaran) kanye nabazinikele (isar-garan). Eminyakeni embalwa edlule, ekhuthazwa futhi esekelwa uMholi Ophakeme, la maqembu abelokhu egxilile, ikakhulukazi emaphoyiseni-amaphoyisa nasezikhungweni zempi. Basekela iziqubulo ze-populist-Islamist nezisekelwe ukubaluleka ezibahlukanisa kwamanye ama-conservatives. Kuyacaca futhi ukuthi ekuxoxisaneni kwangaphambi kokhetho kwamaqembu ahlukene e-ultra-conservative, u-Ahmadinejad akazange amukeleke kubo bonke futhi ama-conservatives angena okhethweni nabane abakhethiwe.
Njengomphumela kaJuni Ukhetho ngokokuqala ngqรก engxenyeni yesine yekhulu leminyaka indoda yezempi, esikhundleni se-mullah, ithatha izintambo njengenhloko yesigungu esiphezulu. Lokhu kucishe kuqedele inkambiso yokulawulwa kwezokuphepha kwezempi yezinhlaka eziyinhloko zombuso, eyaqala ekupheleni kweMpi ye-Iran-Iraq, futhi yathola umfutho eminyakeni eyi-8 edlule. Lo mkhuba uqale okhethweni lomkhandlu kamasipala ngesikhathi i abadgaran yathatha amadolobha amaningi namadolobha amaningi eminyakeni emibili edlule futhi yahlanganiswa ngenkathi iqhubeka nokulawula iMajles (iphalamende). Iphuzu alinakugcizelelwa ngokweqile ukuthi lolu wushintsho olusha ngokuphelele nolusezingeni eliphezulu, olungase lube nethonya eliwujuqu ebudlelwaneni phakathi kwezindlu zamasosha nama-mosque embusweni ongokwasezulwini.
Ukugxambukela okusobala kwesikhungo sobuholi obuphakeme [ithimba likaKhamenei] 'okhethweni' , indima ebalulekile yebutho lezempi kanye nezinsizakusebenza zezempi ekubumbeni nasekuhleleni ivoti, futhi ekugcineni ukungena emandleni kwalabo abasanda kuvota kwaba yinto esemqoka. isenzo esasiphambene nezinkambiso zesiko lezepolitiki lamanje. Akumangalisi ukuthi kubangele igagasi lokubhikisha elingakaze libonwe phakathi kwezikhulu ezibusayo. Ukuziphatha okunjalo ngokungangabazeki kungaphazamisa izinhlu ezikhona embusweni futhi kubeke izinsiza zobuholi, futhi kumhlukanise ngokukhethekile u-Ali Khamenei'. Kungenza buthaka isikhundla sakhe phakathi kwe-oligarchy yabefundisi, osekuyiminyaka engaba ngamashumi amathathu iphethe amandla angempela ezandleni zayo. Akukhona ngale kwemingcele yokucabanga ukuthi i-Assembly of Experts [7], naphezu kokulawulwa ama-conservatives, izongabaza ukufaneleka kwakhe ukuqhubeka njengomholi. Isiphakamiso sakamuva sika-Rafsanjani sokuthatha indawo ye- Ophakeme Leader (Khamenei) noCumkhandlu wobuholi kungase kuthathwe ngokungathi sรญna ngokusekelwa abanye abefundisi abanethonya. Ngakho, kungani uzifaka engozini enjalo? Umuntu angakuchaza kanjani lokhu kuhlanzwa kwezepolitiki okwenzeka ngaphansi kwesithunzi sokhetho? Iyini imiphumela yako engaba khona?
Kungani kuketulwa umbuso?
Ukhetho lukamongameli lwesi-9 lwaluyisiteji lapho inkinga eyayigubuzele umbuso kanye nezisombululo ezazingasebenzisa lezi zinxushunxushu zadlalwa kanyekanye ngendlela yomzabalazo onamandla wokubusa. Kwenzeka ngesikhathi lapho ukuba khona kombuso kwakusongelwa kakhulu ngezindlela ezintathu: Ekhaya umbuso usondela ngokushesha enkingeni yokulawula, ngokuya uhlukaniswa futhi uhlaselwa igagasi elijwayelekile lokungathandi nokubhikisha. Ngaleso sikhathi isifunda kanye nomhlaba wonke siyaqina ekuphishekeleni iphrojekthi kaBush 'yoshintsho lombuso' . Ekugcineni ngaphakathi embusweni ukuhlukana nokuxabana kwamaqembu kwenze ukuba izikhulu ezibusayo zingakwazi ukuthatha izinqumo eziwujuqu futhi zenze izinto ngobunye.
Lezi zinxushunxushu, vele, zinezimbangela zesakhiwo [8] ezishade ngesimo esiphikisanayo samandla eRiphabhulikhi YamaSulumane. Bazalwa nombuso, futhi baye baba kubi kakhulu kule minyaka engamashumi amabili edlule, ikakhulukazi ngemva kokwamukelwa kwezinqubomgomo ze-neo-liberal kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezinhlelo zokulungiswa kwesakhiwo. Zijule, muva nje yimigomo kaBush ka-September 11, kangangokuthi namuhla umbuso uzithola ubhekene nezingozi zangempela.
Kule minyaka, futhi ekuphenduleni izinxushunxushu zombuso, ababusi kancane kancane bakleliswe, bangena emakamu amabili ahlukene emibono yezombangazwe. Abazibize ngokuthi 'ama-reformists' babhekene nama-conservatives. Abokuqala bakholelwa ukuthi ngaphandle 'kwezinguquko' uhlelo ngeke luphile, nakuba banemibono ehlukene mayelana nokuthi 'inguquko' ihlanganisani. Abanye bawukhawula emigomeni futhi ekugcineni ukuziphatha kombuso maqondana nabantu, ikakhulukazi enkundleni yezenhlalo nezepolitiki. Abanye bafinyelela ezinguqukweni zesikhungo esakhiweni samandla. Isibonelo nje bafuna uguquko kumthethosisekelo ukuze kwandiswe amandla ezinhlaka ezikhethiwe maqondana nalezo eziqokiwe [9]. Bafuna futhi ukwenza ngokwejwayelekile futhi 'banciphise ukungezwani' ebudlelwaneni bangaphandle, futhi bahambisane nezinkambiso zamazwe ngamazwe. Lokhu, bakholelwa ukuthi kuzoqinisekisa ukusinda kwesistimu futhi yingakho bebambelele emandleni.
Phakathi kuka-1999-2001 'abashisekeli benguquko' baheha ukwesekwa ingxenye enkulu yabantu futhi banqoba kakhulu ochungechungeni lokhetho, bathatha cishe zonke izikhungo ukuze kube nokhetho. Nokho ngesikhathi sokunqoba iphupho labo laphenduka iphupho elibi. Kwaba sobala kubo bonke kodwa kwabayizimpumputhe kakhulu ukuthi lo mbuso wengcindezelo futhi ongaguquki awugcini nje ngokuguquguquka, kodwa uhlaka lwamandla esikhungo luhlangene nezintshisakalo zamaqembu abusayo njengokwenza noma yiziphi izinguquko zingenzeki. Ngaphezu kwalokho imiphumela eshaqisayo yezinqubomgomo zezomnotho zabashisekeli benguquko empilweni yansuku zonke yezigidi, ayizange nje idale ukudumala okukhulu, kodwa yenza ukuba kube nokungagwemeka kwethemba lokukhula kwemibhikisho.
Isimo samazwe ngamazwe asizange sibe ngcono, futhi uSepthemba 11 wayiqeda ngokuzumayo imizamo ye-Iran yokwenza ubudlelwano bamazwe angaphandle bube bujwayelekile. 'Ingxoxo yempucuko' kaKhatami yasungulwa ngenkathi uBush ebeka i-Iran phakathi uthi elinamandla futhi yamemezela ngokusemthethweni inqubomgomo yokushintshwa kombuso. Kwabe sekuba sobala ukuthi, ngokuphambene namathemba aphakanyiswa ukuvulwa kukaKhatami eminyakeni engu-8 ngaphambili, esimweni sezombangazwe emhlabeni esishintshayo inkulumo yakhe kanye nezinqubomgomo zangaphandle azikwazi ukunikeza umbuso nganoma yisiphi isivikelo ezinsongweni zangaphandle. Umthelela walezi zithiyo, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kwaba wukwenza buthaka isikhundla seqembu elilwela izinguquko phakathi kwezinhlaka ezibusayo zizonke, okuzifaka engcindezini enkulu evela kuma-conservatives. Futhi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, yacekela phansi ukuhlangana kwangaphakathi kwamaqembu ahlukahlukene akha umfelandawonye 'we-reformist'alliance. Umphumela waba ukuhlukana nokuhlukana okuphindaphindiwe.
I-Conservative bloc inesu elihlukile lokubhekana nezinkinga ezikhulayo: Gxilisa amandla kakhulu phezulu futhi usebenzise ingcindezelo enqunu kanye nokwesaba ngokusebenzisa amasosha namaphoyisa. Wonke amaqeqebana angaphakathi kule bloc aphikisana nanoma yiluphi ushintsho ekwakhekeni kwamandla esikhungo, ikakhulukazi uma lokho kusho ukwehlisa igunya lesikhungo sobuholi [10], okuyinto kubo eqinisekisa isisekelo 'samaSulumane' salo lonke uhlelo. Baqinisekile ukuthi noma yikuphi ukuguquguquka 'ezimisweni nasezimisweni' kuzoholela ekukhohlweni, futhi kufanele kuvinjwe ngonya. Ngempela, bahlose ukwenza lula izici zombuso ezididekile neziphikisanayo ngokususa i-republic ekhethwe kancane ukuze ivune i-caliphate ekhethiwe, enesakhiwo esimaphakathi kakhulu [11]. Ama-Conservatives aphinde abheka noma yikuphi ukuvuleka emoyeni wezepolitiki noma ukwakhiwa kwanoma yiluphi uhlobo lwezinhlangano ezizimele zezenhlalo noma zezombusazwe njengosongo oluyingozi ekulawuleni kwabo okuphelele umphakathi. Bebhekene nokuwohloka kokusekelwa komphakathi okugqugquzelwe i-Islamic Republic, baphendukela embuthweni wamasosha namasosha aqashiwe njengethuluzi labo lokulawula.
Ezingeni lamazwe ngamazwe ama-Conservatives akhetha ukudlala ikhadi le-Islamic movements, imisebenzi yobuphekula kanye nezingxabano zezombusazwe nezenkolo. Bazama futhi ukuvula noma iyiphi indawo yokuphefumula abangayithola ngokungena ezikhaleni nasezintweni ezincintisanayo phakathi kwemibuso emikhulu, ikakhulukazi ebheke eChina, eRussia naseJapan. Ukufeza lokhu isikhali sabo esikhulu yizivumelwano zezentengiselwano nezomnotho. Naphezu kwalezo zinqubomgomo, nokho, abazange bagudluke ekwenzeni izivumelwano nezivumelwano ngemuva kwendawo yesigameko, uma kusiza ukuhlanganisa amandla abo, noma ukusebenzisa ikhadi lezikhali zenuzi.
I-Conservative bloc, ikakhulukazi selokhu kwashona u-Ayatollah Khomeini, yayithathe zonke izikhundla ezibalulekile zombuso. Lezi zihlanganisa zonke izinhlaka ezangena ngaphansi komHoli oPhakeme 'amabutho ahlomile, uphiko lwezobunhloli bamaphoyisa kanye namajaji. Ngaphezu kwalokho ukulawula uMkhandlu Wababheki, ngokudweba imigqa ebomvu engakwazi ukweqa, kuvumela ukulawula phezu kwawo wonke amagatsha ombuso, okuhlanganisa ukulawulwa kombuso kanye neziphathimandla.
Kodwa-ke isimo esicindezelayo kanye nokusabela okukhulu kwamaqembu ahlukahlukene ngaphakathi kwe-ultra-conservative bloc kunciphisa kakhulu amandla awo okubhekana nezinkinga ezivelayo. Ngempela phakathi neminyaka embalwa ngemva koguquko lwango-1979 bona ngokwabo baba yimbangela eyinhloko yezinxushunxushu zezombangazwe nezenhlalo, baphusha lesi sakamuva endaweni enkulu. Lokhu kungase kube isizathu sokuthi kungani kukho konke ukuphila kwayo le bloc ingakwazi ukunweba isisekelo sayo sokusekela ngaphezu kwamanethiwekhi ezempi kanye namasosha kanye nabantu abangaphansi kwesambulela esiqondile sezinhlangano ezisiza umphakathi eziqhutshwa yizo. Umlando wabo wokubhekana nenkinga yokuba semthethweni kanye nokuhlukaniswa nombuso olokhu ukhula ube mubi. Lokhu kungabonakala esilinganisweni samavoti abantu abakhethiwe 'esingadluli ku-25% wamavoti afakiwe. Baze bakhethwa kuphela lapho abanye sebedube ukhetho [12]. Leli qiniso kwaba esinye sezizathu ezenza, okungenani eminyakeni eyi-10 edlule, benelise ukubekezelela ukulawulwa kweqembu lezimbangi phezu kwemishini yokuphatha kanye ne-Majles yomthetho, kuyilapho bebambe ngokuqinile isihlangu sokuvikela samasosha.
Ngokuhluleka kwabashisekeli bezinguquko ukugcina isisekelo sabo sokusekela, ukungakwazi kwabo ukusebenza njenge-valve yokuphepha kuhulumeni wonke, ukwehluleka kwenqubomgomo yabo yangaphandle ukunikeza isivikelo esingaphelele ngokumelene nezinsongo zase-US, ama-Conservatives abhekana nezinkinga ezintsha futhi ngokumangalisayo. izimo eziyingozi [13]. Babenokukhetha okubili kuphela: ukuyekethisa futhi balahle isimiso sezombangazwe esibusayo isinyathelo ngesinyathelo sokuzihlukanisa, noma ukubhekana nokubhekana okubulalayo futhi babekezelele imiphumela. Lapho bebhekene nalokhu kukhethwa kukaHobson ama-Conservative ahlukana abe amaqembu ahlukene: I-Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran (abadgaran), i-Principled Reformist (usul-garane eslah talab) njll.
Lawa maqembu amasha, angabizwa ngokuthi ama-Islamist new-conservatives, aqophe indawo yawo kwezombusazwe zezwe ngokugxeka nokwenqaba wonke amanye amaqembu: ama-reformists (abasekeli baka-Mohammad Khatami), ama-pragmatists (abasekeli bakaRafsanjani) [14] ] kanye nama-conservatives endabuko. Ngokubona kwabo bobathathu, bahlulekile ekusebenzeni, futhi babhebhethekisa isimo esibucayi kangangokuthi ubukhona bombuso basongelwa. Kwabasha, ukusabela esixazululweni esisheshayo, esinesibindi nesiqinile kwabonakala kungenakugwenywa. Futhi yilokhu abakwenzile ' ukuhlanganiswa kwamandla kancane okulandelwa ukuketula umbuso buthule.
Eminyakeni embalwa edlule ama-New Conservatives akwazile ukungena ngokuthula ezithweni eziningi, ekhohlisa izimbangi zawo ukuthi agcine ephethe imikhandlu eminingi yamadolobha, iMajles futhi manje ihhovisi likamongameli.
Izinqubomgomo ezintsha zokulandela imithetho
Amaqembu amasha alandela imithetho eqinile, aphuma kakhulukazi embuthweni wezempi futhi asebenza ngaphansi kwesambulela sezinsiza zobuholi, ahlose ukulingana okusha. Lokhu ukulingana okuzonciphisa izinkinga zangaphakathi nezangaphandle futhi kuqinisekise ukusinda kwesistimu. Inhloso wukwakha umbuso onamandla, ophakathi nendawo, onezimiso, ohlanjululwe enkohlakalweni, ongathembela ekusekelweni okuvuselelwe okuvela ezingxenyeni eziphansi zomphakathi, amasosha kanye namasosha aphakathi nendawo, ahlome ngezikhali zenuzi, konke okuxhaswe ngamadola kaphethiloli. . Ngala mathuluzi bakholelwa ukuthi bangabhekana nezinselele zangaphakathi nezangaphandle ngaphandle kokusebenzisa noma yiziphi izinguquko zesakhiwo, kuyilapho begcina isimo sombuso sokubusa.
Umehluko phakathi kwama- new-conservatives kanye nama-conservatives endabuko uku: Okokuqala, ukubeka phambili izixuku ezintulayo ukuze zibuye zisekele umbuso. Okwesibili, encazelweni yabo yombuso. Izwe labo kuzoba umbuso ongenelelayo, umbuso ozolawula zonke izindlela zokuphila eziyinhloko zezwe, ngokungafani neze nezinhlobonhlobo 'ezizimele' zabagadli bendabuko. Okwesithathu, ekugxiliseni iziqubulo zabo nezinkulumo zabo mayelana nobulungiswa bezenhlalakahle kanye nenhlalakahle yabampofu esikhundleni sezindinganiso zamaSulumane kanye nombuzo wokuthi ngiyabonga [okulungile nokungalungile ezindabeni zenkolo]. Lokhu kuqoqwa, nokho, kusenqubweni yokuthuthukiswa, futhi izinqubomgomo zabo eziqondile azichazwanga kahle, ziyakhiwa. Izinhlaka ezibanzi, nokho, zingathathwa ezinkulumeni nasezinkulumeni zayo. Kunezixazululo ezimbili ezimaphakathi.
a. Ukuhlanganisa amandla esicongweni futhi siqale ukuhlanzwa kwezombusazwe, kwenhlangano kanye nezezimali kwendikimba yokuphatha yezwe. Abathemba ukukwenza wukuhlanganisa ukungezwani kwangaphakathi kanye nokuvimba noma yimiphi imizamo yabaphikisi yokusebenzisa ukuhlukana kwangaphakathi ukuze baqhubekisele phambili izinhloso zabo. Lokhu kubonakala eziqubulweni ezinjengokulwa nenkohlakalo yombuso, izicukuthwane zombuso kanye nabaqashiwe.
b. Umzamo wokusungula inhlangano entsha yezombusazwe ukuze kuvuselelwe isisekelo senhlalo yombuso, ikakhulukazi phakathi kwabampofu basemadolobheni nabasemaphandleni 'into eyashabalala kancane kancane eminyakeni eyi-15 edlule. Eqinisweni bazama ukugibela ukungeneliseki okudumile kwabahlukumezekile bezinqubomgomo zezomnotho zombuso. Lapha banethemba lokuhlakulela izinto ezifanele ezizobasiza bakhe kabusha izinqaba zombuso eziwayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kungenzeka ukuthi badinga ifolishi yenganono ukungqubuzana ne-US kanye ne-Israel ukuthi kunyuke. Iqhaza leziqubulo ezifana nobulungiswa bezenhlalakahle, ukulwa nokungalingani, umkhankaso wokulwa nobumpofu, 'ukubuyisela imali kawoyela etafuleni labantu' , isixazululo senkinga yezindlu, ukuqashwa nomshado wentsha nokunye okunjalo kunembile. ukufeza le njongo.
Abanye abalandeli baka-Ahmadinejad baye babhekisela kulokhu ngokuthi 'inguquko yesithathu' ukuthi esikhundleni sabefundisi noma abafundi inobuholi bayo embuthweni wezempi [15]. Lokhu revolution uzalelwa emabhalekisini esikhundleni se-mosque noma enyuvesi. Abanye babona lokhu ukuzalwa kabusha kwenkolelo-mbono yeminyaka yokuqala yenguquko kanye nokuvela kabusha kwe-populism yamaSulumane [16].
Kwakuhambisana nombono onjalo lapho umfelandawonye ongamenyezelwanga phakathi kwamaqembu amasha alandela imithetho eqinile ngaphansi kobuholi bombuthano kaKhamenei ukwazile ukuhola ukhetho lwakamuva, ngohlelo oluhlelwe kahle nolwenziwa ngokucophelela 'olucime izibani' kwaze kwaba ngobusuku besibili. ivoti, ukuqhubeka nokubamba indawo yokugcina yama-reformists kanye nama-pragmatists [17]. Umhlabathi usulinyiwe ukuze kutholwe umthetho ophelele we- velayate faqih ' into u-Ayatollah Khomeini ongasekho ayeyibize kodwa wehluleka ukuyifeza ngempumelelo - yaphazanyiswa ukuphikisana okujulile kombuso wakhe [18].
Ingabe lolu hlelo luncike emandleni angempela, umhlabathi wangempela namandla angempela? Uma iphumelele ingawuhlenga umbuso obishini ocwile kuwo? Noma ingabe lokhu kuwumzamo nje ongemuhle ongenawo omunye umphumela kodwa ukuwohloka okuqhubekayo kombuso, ukuhlukaniswa kwawo okukhulu kanye nokusheshisa ukubhidlika nokuwa kwawo?
Ingabe okusha kungakwenza okungenzeki?
Ukuphendula le mibuzo sizocubungula izimo zangempela, amandla kanye nemikhawulo i-Islamic Republic ebhekene nayo namuhla. Kodwa-ke kubalulekile ukucacisa izindaba ezimbalwa kuqala:
1. Inkinga ye-Islamic Republic inezimpande zesakhiwo. Zingaphezu kwakho konke ukubonakaliswa kokungahambisani kombuso we-religio-ideological ultra-reactionary kanye nendawo yawo ebalulekile kanye nesilungiselelo somlando. Akumangazi ukuthi uhulumeni wamaSulumane ubesenkingeni eqhubekayo selokhu azalwa, ebonakala ephindelela ngaphansi kokucatshangelwa okuhlukahlukene kanye namazinga amaningi. Isidingo esiqhubekayo sezinguquko zezombangazwe nesakhiwo kube yisidingo esingenakugwenywa. Okungcono kakhulu le mizamo, evele njengokuphenduka kwezepolitiki, imane yasusa isizinda sezinkinga ezinjalo isuka kwenye isiya kwenye - igwema ukuqhuma ngaphandle kokususa izimbangela. Ngaso sonke isikhathi umbuzo wawufana: Ayini amandla ombuso, aphi ama-U-turns futhi kungaba yini imiphumela edlulayo yanoma yiluphi ushintsho kunqubomgomo? Kuma-mullah abusa i-Iran, lezi zinxushunxushu zaziyinto evamile. Ngakho-ke siye sabona umnyakazo usuka 'enqubweni' ukuya 'ku-'expediency' , usuka ku-elitism ukuya ku-populism, usuka ekwahlukaniseni amazwe uyiswe emuva futhi ubuyele emuva futhi ' njalo ufuna ukuzinza! [19].
2. Ezimweni zamanje zasekhaya nezamazwe ngamazwe, i-Islamic Republic ayikwazi ukuthola isisombululo ukuze iphile ngaphandle kokukuphikisa ngokuphelele ukuba khona kwayo. Isinqumo esinzima ebhekene naso wukuthobela ngokuphelele izimo zamakholoni (ukugcina ukubukeka kwezenkolo noma ngaphansi kwesifihla-buso sezwe) njengoba kwenza abanye omakhelwane bayo, kanye nokuhlakazeka ohlelweni lukaBush 'lweMpumalanga Ephakathi enkulu', noma ukuzinikela enqubweni eqhubekayo. intando yeningi ebambe iqhaza nenamandla. Naphezu kwakho konke ukukhala kanye nezimangalo ezisabalele eziphikisana nalokho, awukho umgwaqo wesithathu. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi amaqhinga anesibindi kangakanani, noma izinguquko ezingalindelekile kanye noshintsho emandleni nezinqubomgomo, lo mbuso uzobhekana nomnqamulajuqu omusha maduze kunokuba wenze ukuwa kwawo kube okungenakugwemeka.
3. I-Islamic Republic iphume okhethweni lwakamuva ibuthakathaka kunangaphambili, futhi izoqala enye i-U-turn yepolitiki, idale izinga elikhulu nakakhulu lokungazinzi. Kunezizathu ezimbili eziyinhloko zalokhu. Okokuqala ukuze kuhehe abantu ukuthi babambe iqhaza ohlelweni lokhetho, kuye kwadingeka ukuthi ihlehle kulokho okwakuhlala kubhekwa njengezimiso nezimiso zayo eziyisisekelo. Ababusi baphoqeleka ukuthi baqaphele, futhi bacabangele nezimfuno zabantu zezombangazwe, ezomnotho nezamasiko. Sibabone bexolisa ngerekhodi elibi lamashumi amathathu eminyaka adlule. Okumangaza nakakhulu ukuthi bonke ababekhethiwe babezigwema kanjani izindaba eziphathelene 'ne-Islam' kanye 'noguquko' futhi bagxeke ngokuqondile noma ngokungaqondile isimo sobushiqela nesicindezelayo sombuso wabo [3].
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kulolu khetho, abangenele ukhetho kuzo zombili izinhlangothi zezombangazwe bakhuthaze ukuvota okungekuhle. Abantu bacelwe ukuthi bavote ukuze benqabe, kunokuba basekele umuntu othile noma isiqubulo. Ama-Reformists kanye nama-pragmatists akhuthaza abantu ukuthi bavote ngokumelene nokusabela, i-despotism kanye nokuqapha ingozi ye-fascism (okusho u-Ahmadinejad). Ama-Conservatives acele abantu ukuthi bavote ngokumelene nenkohlakalo, ukungalingani, ubumpofu, nokuphangwa kwezinsiza zomphakathi (okusho u-Rafsanjani) [21].
Nokho naphezu kwakho konke ukusuka nawo wonke amaqhinga, naphezu kwezinsongo ezivamile zemiphumela emibi yokungavoli, imithombo esemthethweni iyavuma ukuthi bayizigidi ezingu-28 kuphela kwabafanelekile abangu-48 abahudulelwa ezindlini zokuvota (lesi sibalo sihlanganisa namavoti akhwabanisiwe). Ezimweni lapho iningi labaphikisayo, labo abathi akuketulwe umbuso wamaSulumane, becele ukuduba, ukungabi khona kwama-40% abavoti, kunokuba kube uphawu lokungakholwa noma ukunganaki, kuwuphawu olucacile nolucacile. yokuphikiswa okusabalele ukuba khona kwesistimu [22].
4. Emzamweni wawo wokufuna ukufana kwezombusazwe kanye nokubumbana emandleni, umbuso waphoqeleka ukuthi uchithe umfelandawonye obubusayo owawuthathe cishe iminyaka engamashumi amathathu, umfelandawonye owasiza uhlelo ukuthi lugcine uzinzo. Manje, ngokokuqala ngqรก kukho konke ukuba khona kwayo, iRiphabhulikhi YamaSulumane kufanele iphendule ezinseleleni zayo ezihlukahlukene, zasekhaya nezangaphandle, ngaphandle kosizo lwabashisekeli bezinguquko kanye nama-pragmatist ezikhundleni ezibalulekile. Esikhathini lapho inendawo encane yokwenza, umbuso ulahlekelwe esinye sezikhali eziyinhloko osisebenzise ngempumelelo ezikhathini eziningi ukuze uhlwanyele ukungaqiniseki phakathi kwabamelene nabo basekhaya nabangaphandle [23]. Kusukela manje sekumele ibhekane ngqo nezingqinamba zayo, futhi ngokwenza lokho ithembele esisetshenziswa sayo sokugcina, isizinda sezempi, ukuze igcine ibhalansi yayo.
Izwe liya ngokwanda ezandleni zezempi. Ngokuphawulekayo, emgwaqeni wokwakha umbuso wezempi, isikhundla esikhethekile nesiqu sabefundisi kuye kwabuzwa ngokukhethekileyo. Ngokokuqala ngqa eminyakeni engu-25 umuntu ongeyena umfundisi ungumongameli ' kanye nebutho lezempi ukuthi liqale. Umqondo wendima emaphakathi ye velayate faqih - ukuvezwa kokubusa yedwa kwabefundisi ' kanye nesisekelo sombono kaKhomeini ngohulumeni wamaSulumane' sekulahliwe.
5. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokukhetha u-Mahmood Ahmadinejad, isikhulu esiphikisayo esiphikisana nobunhloli ku-Revolutionary Guards, onomlando wokubandakanyeka ebuphekula nasekubulaleni [24], ukuhola isikhulu, ubudlelwano bangaphandle, ngisho nokuya emibuthanweni yamazwe ngamazwe kuzoba yinkinga kakhulu. kunanini ngaphambili. Ikakhulukazi ngodaba lwezikhali zenuzi i-US kanye ne-Israel basethubeni elingcono lokugqugquzela imibono yomphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe ngokumelene ne-Islamic Republic. Manje, noma yiliphi ijaji noma ummeli noma yikuphi angazama isandla sakhe ekushushiseni umuntu wesibili kuhulumeni wase-Iran.
Awukakalungeli ukuwa?
Ngabe umbuso usulungele ukuwa? Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi iRiphabhulikhi YamaSulumane iphume kulolu khetho ibuthakathaka futhi intekenteke kakhulu kunangaphambili, umuntu ngeke aphethe ngokuthi iphezu komngcele wokuphonswa kanye nokuwa. Cishe izoqhubeka nokuba khona isikhathi eside. Ikusasa lombuso lincike ezintweni eziningi kanye nendlela ezisebenzisana ngayo. Ezinye zalezi zici zingavumela umbuso indawo yokuphefumula kuyilapho abanye bezokwenza okuphambene:
Ingabe ababusi base-Iran bazokwazi ukusebenzisa uchungechunge lwezinguquko ezisheshayo ezintsha zokuvuselela kabusha ukusekelwa kwengxenye ebalulekile yabantu abampofu [25]? Ingabe umbuso ongathandwayo, ophikisayo ngokuphelele, ocindezelayo kanye nonegunya, owake wakwazi ukusebenzisa ukusekelwa 'kwabangenafa'ukugcina amandla angakwenza futhi? Ingabe umbuso, ngokuphishekela ukuthengisa uguquko lwawo kwamanye amazwe, wathumela laba basekeli ukuba bayosusa imigodi yamabhomu iminyaka eyisishiyagalombili, balengise 'isihluthulelo sasezulwini' sepulasitiki entanyeni yabo, ukwazi ukubuyisela ukwethenjwa kwabo? Ingabe abantu ababekhashelwa bayovuma ukukhashelwa futhi [26]?
Kunezimpendulo ezimbili ezingenzeka kule mibuzo:
Iyaqinisa: Uma iwasebenzisa kahle amathuba anikezwayo, ikakhulukazi lawo aphumela ekubeni i-US ithathe i-Iraq ne-Afghanistan, umbuso wamaSulumane ungahlanganisa abampofu kakhulu ekusekeleni kwawo futhi usinde kule nkinga yamanje. Lawa mathuba ahlanganisa i-quagmire yase-Iraq (engasiza i-Islamic Republic ukudlala ikhadi layo le-Shi'te), imakethe yamanje kawoyela ekhulayo kanye nendlela noma iyiphi inkinga entsha eMpumalanga Ephakathi engase ibe nomthelela ngayo emananini kawoyela, izimali ezibalulekile zokuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe abaziqoqile. kanye nemali eningi etholwayo ngenxa yamanani aphezulu kawoyela. Lokhu kungadluliselwa ekuthuthukisweni okusheshayo kwezimo zokuphila zezigaba ezihlosiwe zabantu futhi kunciphise ukunganeliseki phakathi kwabo.
Bese kuba nenkinga ejulile phakathi kwezinhlanga zamabutho aphikisayo amandla awo okuvala isikhala sezombusazwe esikhona anciphile. Kukhona futhi ubuthakathaka nokungezwani phakathi kwamandla anamandla nathuthukayo abengasiza ekuvuseni ukuhlukana kwezigaba okukhona futhi akusebenzise ukuhlela nokuhlanganisa izinhlangano ezizimele zabasebenzi nabakhandleka. Futhi ekugcineni uma besebenzisa ngempumelelo i- okuyisisekelo ' inhlangano kazwelonke yezombangazwe namasosha [27] elawulayo, kanye nenethiwekhi ebanzi yama-mosque nezinhlangano ezisiza umphakathi ezihlangene, njengendlela enamandla yokuxhumana phakathi kombuso nezixuku ezincishwe amathuba nezincishwe amathuba.
Negative: Uma amaqembu ezombusazwe amasha asemandleni engakwazi ukunqoba okunye ukuphikisana kwawo izithiyo ezibhekana nazo ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwezinsiza ezibusayo. Lezi zithiyo yilezi:
Ukudala ibhalansi entsha phakathi kwezithakazelo zezomnotho zabaqashisi abafana ne-mafia phezulu kanye nezimfuno zoquqaba oluchithiwe [okungukuthi, ingxenye eyinhloko yesu le-new-conservative]:[M3] Ukwazi ukwaba kabusha izinsiza zomphakathi (ikakhulukazi imali kawoyela) ukuze kwehliswe imithwalo yempilo. Lokhu kuzodinga ukusika wonke noma okungenani amanye amathente esilwane esisabekayo esinganeliseki. Ingwane enomkhawulo owodwa emibuthanweni yangaphakathi ezungeze iKhamenei' kanye nezikhungo eziningi ezingaphansi kokuqeqeshwa kwayo, kanye namatende ku-Revolutionary Guards, amathuluzi ezokuphepha, izigodlo ezisanda kwakhiwa zemindeni ephezulu, kanye namahhovisi enzalo yabo (eyaziwa kakhulu ngokuthi. i aghazadeha = amadodana abefundisi). Ngamanye amazwi, ukukwazi ukugcina isithembiso sokuba 'nemali yamafutha etafuleni labampofu' nokwakha ithemba.
Ukunciphisa ukumelana kwezimali okukhona ngokushesha nokunonya ' kokubili kwasekhaya nakwamanye amazwe - okuzobheka ukuchezuka okuncane kumodeli wawo womnotho we-neo-liberal kanye ne-austerity njengento eyisiqalekiso: Ukwazi ukuzuza ukuzethemba kwayo nokubadayisela inqubomgomo yezomnotho egcwele izingxabano futhi izinto ezingaqondakali. Futhi ukuvimbela onxiwankulu basekhaya nabangaphandle ukusebenzisa isikhali sabo esisebenza kahle kakhulu, ukubalekela kwezinye izindawo, ngaleyo ndlela kucindezele umnotho nokwanda kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi [28].
Ukucindezela noma ukunqoba izimfuno zabantu abasebenzayo, ama-agent abalulekile oshintsho lwezenhlalo nezombusazwe. Njengoba kunikezwe ukuqiniswa kwezimfuno ezinjalo ngobuningi, umbuso uzodinga ukuvimba imizamo yokuhlela emazingeni ahlukene; ukuyenga abantu abasebenzayo ukuthi balandele omunye futhi 'umsindisi' ngobumpumputhe, kuyodingeka ukuthi kuhlukanise izigaba zabasebenzi, futhi kuhlukanise izingxenye eziqinile zenhlangano yabasebenzi [29].
Ukulawula isimo sezepolitiki lapho umbuso osebenza khona: Okusho ukuthi, okokuqala, ukuchoboza ukunyakaza okudumile kokulingana kwezenhlalo, inkululeko yamasiko nezepolitiki, nokuzibusa. Ukwazi ukudala indawo yokwesaba kangangokuthi ukunyakaza okuphikisayo, ikakhulukazi abesifazane, intsha, i-intelligentsia, kanye nezizwe ezingezona zamaFars kanye nezinhlanga zilawulwa. Ukukwazi ukucindezela amagagasi akhuphukayo okungalaleli kwamasiko nomphakathi kanye nokubhikisha kwezepolitiki. Ngamafuphi, ukukhiqiza ukuhlukana phakathi kwesidingo sesinkwa nalokho kwenkululeko.
Ukuzinzisa ubudlelwano bombuso nezifunda ezinamandla kakhulu zomhlaba: Ikakhulukazi, ukuvimbela udaba lwezikhali zenuzi ukuthi luqhume, futhi ngalokho ukwazi ukuphambukisa ama-petro-dollar njengangaphambili esikhwameni sikahulumeni.
Futhi ekugcineni, ukuvimbela izinkinga ezingaphandle ukuthi zingangeni emigwaqweni yamandla kanye nokuhlakaza ukufana kwezepolitiki neqembu okuzuzwe ukuketula umbuso kwamanje: Okusho ukuthi, ukuvimbela ubunye bokuthathwa kwezinqumo bubhujiswe, kuphinde kunikeze ithuba lokuxabana kwamaqembu, izithiyo. nokunye okunjalo, kulokhu phakathi kwamafia akhona ezempi nezomnotho eqenjini le-Conservative.
Kunobufakazi obuncane bokuthi ama-fresh-conservatives e-Iran azophinde aphakamise ifulegi lobulungiswa bezenhlalakahle 'ngoguquko lwesithathu' . Uma 'uguquko lokuqala' bekuyinhlekelele yangempela, 'inguquko yesithathu' cishe izoba yihlaya elicasulayo.
Nokho ukhiye wephazili ka-Ahmadinejad usezandleni zesigaba sabasebenzi. Ukuvela kwenhlangano yesigaba sabasebenzi eqhubekayo, eqinile futhi eningi iyona kuphela intuthuko engavala isikhala esikhona manje semibono nepolitiki lapho ukusabela komphakathi kuka-Ahmadinejad kuzama khona ukwenza okuthile. Isigaba okuwukuphela kwamandla omphakathi akwazi ukuvimbela i-demagogic populism [30].
Udaba olubalulekile olubhekene ne-Iran, akusona isiphetho sika-Ahmadinejad. Kuyisiphetho sezwe. Akudingi ukucabanga okuningi ukuqonda ukuthi i-Islamic Republic inesifo esibulalayo. Ikhambi lika-Ahmadinejad lingelesikhashana kuphela. Ukufa okungenakugwenywa kulindele lo mbuso, ngakho ngenxa yokuhambisana nenkathi yawo . Lokho u-Ahmadinejad kanye nombuso abazama ukukusindisa vele sekuphelile.
Kodwa isiphetho sezwe asinakugwemeka. Ezinkingeni eziningi ezibhekene ne-Iran, ingabe izwe lizobhekana nokuwohloka nokuhlukana, ukuhlasela noma ikusasa elikhululayo langempela? Lokho kukhetha, nalelokusasa, kuyenziwa namuhla. Futhi impendulo ngokusobala ayinqunywanga kusengaphambili noma ayincikile ngokuphelele ekutheni umbuso wamaSulumane uwa kanjani, noma ezandleni zabo.
Leli kusasa seliphinde lisezandleni zesigaba sabasebenzi esihleliwe sase-Iran. Ingabe isigaba sabasebenzi sizokwazi ukuhlanganisa amandla aso esu namandla kanye nekhono lokusungula izinhlangano zomphakathi? Ingabe ingakwazi ukuzala i-ejenti yangempela yoshintsho lwezenhlalakahle ngokuhlanganisa inhlangano nekhono lenhlangano? Uma izimpendulo zale mibuzo zinhle, khona-ke hhayi kuphela ixhaphozi i-Ahmadinejads yase-Iran abafuna ukuyisebenzisa ukudala enye inhlangano ye-ultra-conservative kanye ne-reactionary izokoma, kodwa izwe lizogwema usongo lokuwa, ukuhlukana noma ukuhlasela. Uma kungenjalo kuyoba khona ukuthula, futhi ukuthula kuyisono sethu!'[31]
Okuhlangenwe nakho kweminyaka eyisishiyagalombili edlule kufakazele ukuthi inhlawulo enzima ilindele labo abangakwazi ukusebenzisa amathuba ababhekene nawo ukuze benze into entsha futhi bazinikele emcabangweni wokubuyisana neqiniso. Ngokufika kwe-ultra-reactionary new-conservatism, lezo zinhlangano ezihlulekayo ukuthatha isikhathi esihlinzekwe namuhla sokuthuthela ekuphileni okungcono, nasemhlabeni ohlukile, ngokungangabazeki zizobhekana nesijeziso esinonya kakhulu.
Ardeshir Mehrdad, Mehdi Kia
July 2005
umbhalo ophansi
1. Ikomidi elinamandla onke lamadoda ayi-12 eliqokwe uMholi oPhakeme futhi lanikezwa amalungelo e-veto okhethweni nemithetho lawo ngokubona kwawo engahambisani 'ne-Islam'. Okhethweni lwakamuva kuphela abantu abangu-8 kwabangaphezu kuka-2000 abaphumelele i-veto yabo futhi bavunyelwa ukuthi bangene ephepheni lokuvota ' futhi ngisho nalapha abantu ababili ababefuna izinguquko, uMostafa Moin (uNgqongqoshe wezeMfundo ePhakeme kuhulumeni ophumayo) kanye noMehralizadeh baphinde babuyiselwa esikhundleni ngemuva kokuthatha izinqumo ezinzima. umbhikisho.
2. Bheka i-Iran: Ukuduba ukhetho lukaMajles. Yini elandelayo? umbiko we-iran โ Middle East Forum uchungechunge II no 1 p 2
3. Lona umehluko obalulekile phakathi kokhetho lwase-Islamic Republic kanye nentando yeningi yephalamende evamile. Abavoti base-Iran banepolitiki kakhulu futhi bakhombise amandla abo okusebenzisa ibhokisi lokuvota ngobunyoninco ukudlala inkundla yezepolitiki ezimeni ezingenademokhrasi kakhulu eziphathelene nezwe. Bheka isibonelo sokhetho lukaMongameli: Kuthiwani uma umlingo wehluleka. umbiko we-iran 1993 no-2 p6; Majles ukhetho i-iran-bulletin izinombolo 25-26; I-Iran: Ukuduba ukhetho lukaMajles. Yini elandelayo? umbiko we-iran โ Middle East Forum uchungechunge II no 1 p 2
4. Lokho abanye abahlaziyi basentshonalanga abaye bakubiza ngokuthi 'intando yeningi Isitayela se-Iranian-Islamic'
5. Kunobufakazi bokuthi icebo elifana nokuketula umbuso, eligcinwe ngokucophelela 'kwaze kwaba amahora angama-24 ngaphambi komzuliswano wesibili wokhetho, laqaliswa. U-Ahmadinejad, obelokhu elandela ngemuva emzuliswaneni wokuqala wokhetho kwaze kwaba yilapho ukubalwa kuqhubeka ngokuzumayo, uvele njengombangi ku-Hashemi Rafsanjani embhikishweni osobala womunye owaphuma isibili, owayenguSomlomo we-Majles, uMehdi Karrubi. Umkhankaso ka-Ahmadinejad usabalalise amakhophi ayizigidi ezi-5 e-CD, cishe ikakhulukazi ezifundeni ezimpofu kakhulu zezwe, ebonisa u-Rafsanjani nomndeni wakhe bephila ngokunethezeka kuyilapho u-Ahmadinejad evezwa ephila ukuphila okulula futhi enikeza iningi lomholo wakhe kwabampofu. Bese kuthi ngomzuliswano wesibili Basij (amasosha) amasosha enze uhlelo 'lwezibani zangaphambili' lapho ibutho ngalinye kwezigidi ezingu-1.5 ezinamandla Basij bekumele balethe abantu abayi-10 ukuthi bavote. Bheka iphepha lezindaba lase-Shargh (Farsi) 14 July 2005. Umphathi we-Revolutionary Guards Corps, u-Zolqadr ekhuluma emhlanganweni omkhulu we-Basij: 'Ezimweni zezombusazwe eziyinkimbinkimbi lapho amandla angaphandle kanye nezikhukhula ngaphakathi sekunesikhathi eside kunqunywa, futhi kwahlelwa, ukushintsha umphumela wokhetho oluvuna bona kanye nokuvimbela ukuvela kukahulumeni osebenza kahle nonezimiso, kwakudingeka senze ngendlela eyinkimbinkimbi futhi amandla anezimiso, makabongwe u-Allah, ngokuhlela okulungile nokunezingqimba eziningi, sakwazi. ukuthola ukusekelwa abantu abaningi emqhudelwaneni oqinile futhi wangempela'ยฆ'Sharq, Tehran July 2005 (ngesi-Farsi).
6. Bekunabafundi abayisishiyagalombili. U-Moin futhi kancane kancane u-Mehralizadeh wayemele ama-reformists. I-pragmatist u-Rafsanjani ubengumuntu ongenele ukhetho ongene ngomzuzu wokugcina futhi bekulindeleke ukuthi bonke abahlaziyi baphumelele. Abanye kwakunguKarrubi owayemele iNhlangano Yabefundisi Abanezimpi ' ngezixhumanisi ezithile zabashisekeli bezinguquko. Bonke abanye babengamalungu ezinhlangano ezihlukahlukene ezilandela imithetho. Laba kwakungowayengumphathi wamaphoyisa uGjalibaf, u-Ali Larijani omele uMholi Omkhulu kuMkhandlu Wezokuphepha Kazwelonke kanye no-Ahmadinejad.
7. UMkhandlu Wochwepheshe ukhethwa abavoti njalo ngemva kweminyaka engu-8 phakathi kwabefundisi abaphezulu (abachazwa ngokuthi 'abanolwazi nokuhlakanipha' ). Phakathi kweqhaza labo wukukhetha velayate faqih ' umholi ophakeme weRiphabhulikhi yamaSulumane naye onamandla aphelele phezu kwawo wonke umphakathi womphakathi nezepolitiki.
8. Bheka i-Ardeshir Mehrdad. Indlela eya ekuwohlokeni okukhulu: ezinye izindlela zihlukanisa umphakathi ngandlela thize njengoba uhlanganiswe kwenye. umbiko we-iran 1995, nos11-12 p6
9. The velayate faqi iqoka izikhundla ezinethonya kakhulu. Ngaphezulu koMkhandlu Wababheki, uqoka izinhloko zamasosha, abezobulungiswa, futhi 'unabameleli benhlangano. velayate faqih'kuzo zonke izitho zomzimba.
10. Okwamanje ifaqi: Seyyed Ali Khamanei'.
11. Isakhiwo esimbaxambili seRiphabhulikhi YamaSulumane simi ngamaphiramidi amabili. Enye yephiramidi yezenkolo nepolitiki esiqongweni lapho kuhlala khona uMholi Ophakeme 'u-Ali Khamenei'. Elinye ihhovisi likamongameli ophethe elisekelwe ephalamende nasehhovisi likamongameli elikhethwe ngezinqubo zokhetho ezilawulwa ngokuqinile nezilawulwa ngokuqinile. Bheka u-Ardeshir Mehrdad. Ngabe uhlelo lwezepolitiki lwase-Iran luzothatha umphakathi noma lunqotshwe yilo. umbiko we-iran 1998 no 19-20 p10
12. Njengoba kwenzeka okhethweni olwedlule kumaMajles kanye nemikhandlu kamasipala. Bheka i-iran umbiko-Middle East Forum Series II no 2 p
13. Izingxenye ezibalulekile kule nkinga kwaba ukwehluleka kwephrojekthi 'ukuguqula imiphakathi' kanye nokwanda kobumpofu nokwehluleka kohlelo lokuvinjelwa kwezomnotho.
14. Eyaziwa e-Iran njengeKargozaran Sazandegi = ama-ejenti wokwakha
15. UKhomeini wabiza ukusebenza kwenxusa laseMelika ngo-1981 'njengoguquko lwesibili'.
16. Kaveh Afrasiabi. Ukubusa kuka-Ayatollah, Juni28, 2005 www.atimes.com
17. Bheka umbhalo waphansi we-bid 5.
18. Bheka i-Ardeshir Mehrdad. I-Velayate Faqih ' uhlelo okhukhweni lokufa. umbiko we-iran 1998 inombolo 17 p6
19. Ukwenza isibonelo lapho ukungqubuzana kukhubaza uKhomeini wadala uhlaka olusha oluzoma ngaphezu kwazo zonke ezinye izinhlaka: i-Assembly for Expediency. Bona ukuthi i-Assembly for Expediency ingena kuphi. umbiko we-iran 1998 inombolo 17 p9
20. Ngokungafani nezikhathi zangaphambili kwakungekho mzamo omncane wokusebenzisa imfundiso yenkolo njengesikhali esinamandla sokufaka abavoti emadokodweni. Esikhundleni salokho, ikhandidethi ngayinye yazama ukuziqhelelanisa ngangokunokwenzeka nokwedlule futhi nokuzikhulula kunoma yimuphi umthwalo wemfanelo ngakho. Lokhu kwaba sobala kakhulu ngo-Ahmadinejad owathi, njengomuntu ongaziwa, walisebenzisa kakhulu leli qhinga ngenzuzo. Ngaphezu kwalokho izinhlaka ezinethonya njengeNhlangano Yothisha eQom Seminary, iTehran Society of Militant Clergy, i-Assembly of Militant Clergy, Islamic Coalition Party (Hey'at-haa-ye Mo'talefe), ababedlale indima ebaluleke kangaka okhethweni oludlule, ukwesekwa kwabo kwakubalulekile ekutholeni ivoti, babekwa eceleni futhi bambalwa abangenele ukhetho abajabulela ukuxhunyaniswa ngokusemthethweni nanoma yimuphi wabo.
21. Ivoti elibi alilona njalo ivoti lokubhikisha, noma ukuduba. Kungaba futhi ivoti lokuvikela ukuthi izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu: ukukhetha phakathi kokubi nokubi.
22. Lokhu kuphambene impela nalokho u-Ali Khamenei' azama ukukusho, futhi amanye amabutho aphikisayo ananela. Ukuba khona ezindlini zokuvota akukwazi ukufakwa ngokuzenzakalelayo ku-akhawunti yokuba semthethweni kombuso. Ivoti elibi kumarekhodi ombuso akusho ukuthi liyivoti elihle lokuba khona kwawo.
23. Kuze kube okhethweni lwakamuva amabutho amaningi aphikisayo asebenzise ukuba khona kwabashisekeli bezinguquko kuhulumeni njengethuba lokuguqukela enkathini yangemva kweRiphabhulikhi ye-Islamic. Amathemba afanayo ayesetshenziswe, phakathi kokunye, i-EU.
24: Bheka isibonelo i-Enghelabe Islami ngemininingwane yokubandakanyeka kuka-Ahmadinejad ekubulaweni kwabaholi be-Kurdistan Democratic Party e-Vienna (e-Farsi). Bheka futhi ukuze uthole ezinye izinkomba
25. Okuhlangenwe nakho kwempi ye-Iran-Iraq kuyasiza lapha. Yabe isisebenzisa lesi sikhali ukuze inqamule ukuvinjezelwa kwabamelene basekhaya, kuyilapho ibeka ukumelana okuphumelelayo nokuhlasela kwamanye amazwe. Manje inethemba lokusebenzisa isikhali esifanayo ukunciphisa amandla abaphikisi basekhaya ukuze balawule futhi bavimbele amazwe angaphandle, futhi ikakhulukazi i-USA, ukuzama ukuketula ngokuqondile ' noma ngabe nge-velvet revolution, noma ukuhlasela okulinganiselwe noma okungenamkhawulo.
26. Ingabe i-Islam yezombangazwe, njengenhlangano egcwele abantu abaningi, ingazakha kabusha e-Iran ngemva kokwehlulwa okukhulu, ikakhulukazi ohlakeni lohlelo oluwuphawu lwalokhu kunqotshwa? Kungaba ngcono ukuphendula lo mbuzo esihlokweni esihlukile.
27. 'Iphathi ezinze ebhaka' , njengoba u-Mohammad-Reza Khatami akubeka engxoxweni ne-HOMA TV, isiteshi seSatelight.
28. Ngosuku ngemva kokukhethwa kuka-Ahmadinejad i-Tehran Bourse yalahlekelwa u-5% yenani lesabelo sayo. Ukwehla kuqhubekile kusukela ngaleso sikhathi futhi akuzange kubuyiselwe emuva ekupheleni kukaJulayi. I-Iranian State TV, Jaam-e jam, inhlolokhono nenhloko ye-Iranian Bourse. Julayi 28, 2005.
29. Akungabazeki ukuthi iziqubulo ze-populist ka-Ahmadinejad zithole ukunanela kwezinye zezigaba ezimpofu kakhulu zomphakathi. Lokhu kuvezwe ngabezindaba bamazwe ngamazwe, kwafakazelwa yimithombo ezimele. Okulibalekayo nokho wukuthi yize iningi labaphakathi nendawo livotele uRafsanjani, iningi labantu abayizigidi ezingama-20 abangazange bavote bangalaba bantu abaswele. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ithonya lika-Ahmadinejad phakathi kwezendlalelo aziqondise ngokuqondile lihlala libuthakathaka. Lokhu akwehli kahle isu elimaphakathi lama- new-conservatives.
30. Ngonyaka wezi-2000 okungenani, u-20-23% wemizi yasemadolobheni neyasemaphandleni yayiphila ngaphansi komugqa wobumpofu ngokuphelele. Bheka u-Nili et al, 'Barrasi-e tahavolaat-e faghr, tozi'e daramad, va refaah-e ejtemaa'ei; I-Sazeman-e modiriyat va barnaameh-rizi-e keshvar; 1379 (Tehran, in Farsi). Izinga elisemthethweni lokungasebenzi e-Iran lingamaphesenti ayi-16 (iBhange Elikhulu) kanti izilinganiso ezingekho emthethweni zicishe zibe ngama-30%.
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