U-Boris Kagarlitsky isazi sezokuhlalisana kwabantu esizinze eMoscow kanye nomhleli wewebhusayithi yesocialist Rabkor (Intatheli Yezisebenzi), imibhalo yayo evela njalo ngesiNgisi ku Ukuphikiswa kweRussia.
Kule ngxoxo noFederico Fuentes, uKagarlitsky unikeza ukuqonda mayelana nezici zasekhaya ngemuva kwesinqumo sombuso waseRussia sokuhlasela i-Ukraine, kungani uMongameli uVladimir Putin efuna "impi yaphakade", indima ebalulekile edlalwa kwesokunxele ekuhleleni ukulwa nempi, futhi amathuba okuba nezinxushunxushu emphakathini eRussia. Inguqulo emfushane kakhulu yale nhlolokhono yaqala ukuvela kuyo Okuluhlaza Kwesobunxele.
Izingxoxo zaseNtshonalanga mayelana nokuhlasela kukaPutin e-Ukraine zigxile kakhulu ekwandiseni i-NATO, izifiso zama-imperialist ze-Kremlin noma impilo yengqondo kaPutin. Kodwa uphikisile ukuthi akukho kulokhu obekungamandla ashayelayo ngemuva kokuhlasela. Kungani?
Uma kwenzeka umcimbi omkhulu, njengempi yase-Ukraine, ngokuvamile kunezici ezihlukahlukene ezidlalwayo. Kodwa kufanele ubeke lezi zici kumongo wezinqubo zangempela zezombangazwe nezenhlalakahle. Ngalowo mqondo, zonke lezi zici, kanye nengxabano yesikhathi eside phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, kanye nokungqubuzana phakathi kwe-Ukraine naphakathi kwe-elite yase-Ukraine, kukhona. Nokho, lezi zici azichazi okuningi; bakha phezulu kakhulu.
Ake siqale nge-NATO. Ukwanda kwe-NATO kuyiqiniso ngempela. I-NATO ayigcinanga ngokunwebeka yaba emazweni angaphambili e-Eastern bloc, njengePoland neHungary; laphinde lanwetshwa laba yizindawo ezaziyiSoviet Union, njengeLithuania, iLatvia ne-Estonia. Ngalowo mqondo, i-NATO ayikwazi ukunweba ngobuchwepheshe noma yikuphi ukusondela eRussia, njengoba umngcele wayo usuvele ungaphansi kwamakhilomitha angama-200 ukusuka eSt Petersburg. Akufanele futhi sikhohlwe ukuthi eminyakeni yokuqala yokubusa kukaPutin, iRussia yayinobudlelwane obuhle kakhulu neNATO. U-Putin ngokwakhe uvumile ukuthi ufuna iRussia ijoyine i-NATO. KwakuyiNtshonalanga eyenqaba ubulungu beRussia lapho ubudlelwano buqala ukuwohloka - impela ngenxa yengxabano yase-Ukraine nasezindaweni ezizungezile.
Nokho kwakuhlale kusobala ukuthi i-NATO yayingeke yamukele i-Ukraine njengelungu eliphelele ngoba lokhu kwakuzodala inkinga enkulu ku-NATO. Ngezindlela eziningi, izifiso zase-Ukraine zokujoyina i-NATO zidale izinkinga eziningi ku-NATO kuneRussia, ngoba kwakusho ukuthi i-Ukraine ifuna i-NATO ichithe imali eningi kwezempi yase-Ukraine. Okuxakayo ukuthi ukuhlasela kukaPutin e-Ukraine akuholelanga nje ekujoyineni iSweden neFinland, kodwa manje sekwenze ubulungu base-Ukraine buye bakwazi. Kuze kube nguFebhuwari 24, amathuba okuthi i-Ukraine ibe yilungu eligcwele ayekude. Manje, isimo sesishintshile, futhi umbono we-Ukraine ekubeni izwe le-NATO eliyiqiniso akuyona nje into yangempela, isivele iba ngokoqobo. Ngakho-ke uma sifuna ukubuka le mpi njengokungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-NATO, khona-ke kusobala ukuthi izinqubomgomo zikaPutin ziye zaphikisana futhi zazuza okuphambene kakhulu nalokho okwethulwa njengezaba zempi.
Mayelana neRussia, noma kunalokho izifiso zikaPutin zama-imperialist, nalokhu kwakukhona: Kufanele nje ubuke noma ulalele inkulumo-ze yaseRussia ukuze ubone ukuthi idlula kanjani yonke imingcele mayelana ne-jingoism nokucwasa. Inkulumo-ze yesiRashiya iqhubeka ithi i-Ukraine akumele ibe khona, leyo ndawo yase-Ukraine empeleni iyindawo yaseRussia enqotshwe abase-Ukraine. Ithi iRussia izokhulula lezi zindawo kubantu abahlala khona; ukuthi ababona abantu abalungile kuleyo ndawo. Zonke izinhlobo zobandlululo, izitatimende ze-fascist zenziwa eziteshini zombuso. Kuyisikhukhula esimangalisayo solaka, ukucwaswa kwabokufika kanye nenzondo.
Singasho futhi ukuthi ukungqubuzana kwangaphakathi e-Ukraine ngokwezinga elithile kuyimbangela yempi. Kodwa lokhu kungqubuzana sekuneminyaka eyisishiyagalombili kukhona, noshintsho oluncane kakhulu. Izingxabano eziqinile zingase ziqhubeke, ngezinye izikhathi amakhulu eminyaka, ngaphandle kokuholela empini. Lapho ziholela empini, izimbangela zangempela zezimpi azitholakali emsuka wokungqubuzana kodwa kumongo wezimo ezibambekayo. Thatha isibonelo, ingxabano yaseMalvinas/Falkland Islands phakathi kweBrithani ne-Argentina, eyaqhubeka amakhulu eminyaka. Incazelo yokuthi kungani kwaqubuka impi ngo-1981 ayitholakali emsuka wengxabano, kodwa kunalokho enkingeni yangaphakathi ngaphakathi kwebutho lezempi lase-Argentina futhi, ngezinga elithile, isidingo sikaMargaret Thatcher sohlobo oluthile lwendaba yempumelelo ukusiza ukuguqula impi. amavoti. Ngakho lesi kwakuyisikhathi esifanele impela sokuba kuqubuke impi: izinhlangothi zombili zazidinga impi ngezizathu zazo zasekhaya.
Ngakho umbuzo wangempela uwukuthi kungani le mpi yaqubuka manje, naphezu kwezinkinga phakathi kwe-Ukraine naphakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine ezikhona iminyaka. Ngisho nangesonto nje ngaphambi kwempi, iningi labahlaziyi bezepolitiki baseRussia babenokungabaza kakhulu ukuthi impi izoqubuka, ngoba wonke umuntu wayazi ukuthi iRussia yayingakulungele neze ukulwa. Lokhu kusiletha odabeni hhayi lwempilo yengqondo kaPutin, kodwa amandla akhe okwenza izinqumo eziphusile. Wonke umuntu wayazi ukuthi impi ngeke ihambe ngendlela eyayihlelwe noma imenyezelwe ngayo yithimba likaPutin. Noma kunjalo, baya empini. Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi laba bantu bebengakwazi ngisho nokubala izinto eziyisisekelo. Angiyena umhlaziyi wezempi, kodwa ngiyakwazi ukubikezela ukuthi iRussia yayingenalo ithuba lokuthatha i-Kyiv futhi izuze ukunqoba okuphelele. Bekufanele ungabi namakhono ngokuphelele noma unqanyulwe ngokuphelele ngokoqobo ukuze ucabange ngenye indlela. Nokho inkulumo-ze kahulumeni yasho okuphambene. Hhayi-ke sekucacile manje ukuthi ubani owayeqinisile. Ngalowo mqondo, impilo yengqondo kaPutin nendlela okwenziwa ngayo izinqumo eKremlin kwaba neqhaza.
Ngakho-ke ungathi zaziyini izimbangela zangempela zempi?
Ngicabanga ukuthi kwakunezimbangela ezimbili ezinkulu.
Eyokuqala ngokuyisisekelo ingeyomhlaba wonke neyesikhathi eside. Kwakuyi-Great Recession of 2007-8, eyashintsha umnotho womhlaba kanye nesimo saseRussia ngaphakathi kwayo. Ukwehla komnotho kwembula ubuthakathaka obukhulu bomnotho waseRussia. Nokho, ngesikhathi esifanayo, ama-oligarchs aseRussia ayezuza kuwo. Lapho ukuwohloka komnotho kuqubuka, umnotho waseRussia wehla ngesivinini esikhulu ukwedlula noma yimuphi omunye umnotho omkhulu emhlabeni. Yabe isilulama ngokushesha kunanoma yimuphi umnotho emhlabeni. Kungani? Ngoba umnotho waseRussia wawuncike ezintweni ezingavuthiwe, futhi ikakhulukazi uwoyela. Ukuze kubhekwane ne-Great Recession, i-US Federal Reserve yaqala ukunyathelisa imali, iningi layo elagcina lisezinmakethe zezimali futhi, ekugcineni, njengokutshalwa kwezimali okuqagelayo. Uwoyela uyimpahla efanelekile yokutshalwa kwezimali okucatshangelwayo, njengoba uxhumeke ngokujulile ezimakethe zezimali. Nokho, ngesikhathi esifanayo, iyingxenye yomnotho wangempela. Ngakho-ke inqubomgomo ye-Federal Reserve iholele ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwamanani kawoyela, okwadala isimo lapho, ngenkathi umnotho waseRussia uqhubeka nokuwohloka, iRussia yashawa ngama-petrodollar, ngemali engenayo eyengeziwe ingena emaphaketheni ama-oligarchs kanye nama-oligarchs. isimo. Isazi sezomnotho saseRussia sake saphawula ukuthi umngane omkhulu kahulumeni waseRussia kwakuyiFederal Reserve. Uhulumeni waseRussia uncike ngqo emalini enyatheliswe yi-Federal Reserve: uma i-Federal Reserve ishicilela imali eyengeziwe, i-elite yaseRussia ithola imali eyengeziwe. Kwakungadingeki benze noma yini ngaphandle kokulinda iFederal Reserve ukuthi iphrinte amadola engeziwe. Kwakuyisu labo lonke lelo. Kepha lapho iFederal Reserve isiqala ukuphrinta imali encane, noma okungenani isiqale ukusebenzisa le mali ngendlela ehlukile, njengoba kwenzeka ngesikhathi se-COVID-19, lokhu kwaba yinkinga enhlokodolobha yaseRussia.
Konke lokhu kwaholela ekwandeni okukhulu kwenkohlakalo. I-Russia yayihlale inenkohlakalo kakhulu, kodwa inkohlakalo manje isifinyelele izinga eliphezulu. Izikhulu zaseRussia zazibhekene nenkinga emangalisayo yokunqwabelana ngokweqile, okufana nalokho U-Rosa Luxembourg uchazwe encwadini yakhe. Isixazululo esisodwa kwaba ukuhambisa le mali eyengeziwe ekukhuliseni amasosha nokukhiqiza ihadiwe lezempi, Kodwa-ke kufanele usebenzise le hardware yezempi ngandlela thile uma ufuna ukuqhubeka nokutshala imali eningi kulo mkhakha.
Kodwa lokho kuyingxenye eyodwa nje yendaba ngoba, ngesikhathi esifanayo, isimo sasekhaya sasiwohloka kakhulu. Nakuba yonke le mali yayihamba ezandleni zabantu abaphakeme kanye nomkhakha omncane wesigaba esiphakathi, ukunakekelwa kwezempilo, izinsizakalo zezenhlalakahle, inhlalakahle - imikhakha eyayivele inemali encane kakhulu - iphinde yancishiswa ukuze isetshenziswe ukuze abakhethiweyo baqongelele imali eyengeziwe. . Esinye isibonelo salokhu kwakuwushintsho lwempesheni luka-2018, olwabhekana nokuphikiswa okuqinile.
Cabanga nje ukuthi isakhamuzi saseRussia esivamile sazizwa kanjani. Babazi ukuthi kunemali eningi egeleza ezandleni ze-oligarchy, i-bureaucracy yombuso, abaphathi abaphezulu, nabangane bakaPutin. Babekwazi ukubona ukwakhiwa kwezigodlo ezimangalisayo - bakhohlwe ngeVersaille eFrance; eduze kwalapho ngineyami i-dacha [ikhaya lamaholide], ungabona izindonga ezinkulu njengoba ushayela usuka lapho uya eMoscow. Yini engemuva kwalezi zindonga? Izigodlo. Siyakwazi lokho ngoba i-inthanethi ikuvumela ukuthi uthole yonke into. Lezi zigodlo zikhulu kakhulu kunalezo ongazithola eVersaille. Futhi lokhu kusendaweni ethathwa ngabacebile njengeyezinga lesibili; akukhona lapho kuhlala khona ama-oligarchs aseRussia acebe kakhulu.
Ngakho abantu bayakubona lokho futhi babone ukuthi isimo sezinto ezibonakalayo seningi elikhulu siya siba sibi kakhulu, ukuthi iholo langempela liyehla namanani entengo ayakhuphuka, ukuthi banezinkinga zokuthola imisebenzi ehloniphekile. Konke lokhu kudala ukunganeliseki okukhulu. Lokhu kunganeliseki ngokuvamile akuzona ezombangazwe, kodwa kudala isimo sengqondo esibi. Kangangoba sekuze kwaba yinkinga ezinhlelweni zempi zikahulumeni waseRussia, ngoba awukwazi ukuhlanganisa abantu embuthweni. Abantu ngeke nje bawulwele lo mbuso. Akekho ofuna ukuzidela ngenxa yabo, ngoba bazondwa yibo bonke abantu.
Phezu kwalokhu, unalo iqiniso lokuthi izikhungo zezepolitiki - ngisho umbuso wentando yeningi womgunyathi esaba nawo ngokhetho olwaluqhudelana namaqembu abengaphansi kombuso - zicekeleke phansi kule minyaka emibili edlule ngenxa yemizamo yamaqembu kaPutin yokufuna ukuvala izikhala. hlanganisa amandla. U-Putin usekhulile futhi ugula kakhulu, ngakho-ke inkinga yokuguqulwa kwamandla ingokoqobo kakhulu, kodwa noma yiluphi uhlobo loguquko lwesikhungo alunakwenzeka kulo mongo.
Pho ubhekana kanjani nakho konke lokhu? Hhayi-ke, ikhambi elingcono kakhulu ukuqhamuka nesimo esithile esidlulele nesingavamile. Isimo esivumela isimo esiphuthumayo, lapho abantu abathatha izinqumo bengakwazi ukweqa noma isiphi isithiyo sesikhungo noma somthethosisekelo futhi benze noma yiziphi izinqumo abafuna ukuzithatha. Futhi impi mhlawumbe iyindlela engcono kakhulu yokudala isimo esinjalo.
Uma kubhekwa lokho okushoyo mayelana nokushoda okusobala kwe-Kremlin kwesu lokungena empini, ingabe ukhona umqondo wokuthi yiziphi izinhloso zikaPutin e-Ukraine, nokuthi banentshisekelo yini ezingxoxweni ne-Ukraine ukuze bazithole?
Ukuhlasela kuthuthukiswe kakhulu futhi akuzange kube namasu esikhathi eside ngemuva kwakho. Lapho iqhinga lombuso elithuthukisiwe lehluleka, ngokusobala baqala ukusungula izimbangela nemigomo emisha yempi ngemuva kweqiniso. Sibhekene necala eliyivelakancane lapho izwe lilwa impi enzima kodwa elidonsa kanzima ukuchaza ukuthi yiziphi izinjongo zalo noma lichazele umphakathi. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi abaphezulu badidekile, abazi ukuthi benzeni futhi sebebheke ngabomvu indlela yokuphuma. Kodwa okwamanje abakwazi ukuyithola.
Inkinga enkulu manje akukhona ukuthi abafuni ukuxoxisana; Inkinga enkulu ukuthi, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yini abayizuzayo ngezingxoxo, ngeke bakwazi ukuyidayisela umphakathi ngenxa yokunganeliseki okukhulu okukhona. Yingakho kunzima kakhulu kuhulumeni waseRussia kanye nohulumeni waseRussia ukufinyelela esixazululweni. Akuyona nje indaba yokuthi benze isivumelwano ne-Ukraine naseNtshonalanga, ababengayenza. Kufanele bakwazi ukudayisela abantu basekhaya noma yiziphi izivumelwano abazenzayo, okuyinto abangakwazi ukuyenza. Noma ngabe lokhu kuphetha kanjani, kuzodala inhlekelele enkulu yokuziphatha, yezepolitiki, yemibono futhi, mhlawumbe, nezinxushunxushu ezweni...
Kulokhu okushoyo, ukuqhubeka kwempi ngakho-ke kungcono kuPutin kunezingxoxo? Ngibuza lokhu ngoba ngaphakathi kweNtshonalanga kwesokunxele, kuvamile ukuzwa ingxabano yokuthi yi-NATO ne-Ukraine abafuna ukuhoxisa impi futhi abenqaba izingxoxo. Kepha imibono yakho ibonakala iphakamisa okuphambene…
Nakanjani. Kungakho, ezitatimendeni zakamuva, uPutin eveze ukulangazelela kwakhe ukwelula le nkinga ngangokunokwenzeka. Njengoba ngike ngabhala, bacace bha ngokugida i impi yaphakade lokho kuqhubeka kuze kube phakade, lapho kungafinyelelwa khona izivumelwano, ngoba abazi ukuthi bazovumelana ngani. Futhi, njengoba ngike ngasho ngaphambili, akukhona ukuthi abakwazi ukuyekethisa noma ngisho nangenxa yokuthi abafuni ukuyekethisa; yingoba abakwazi ukudayisela umphakathi lokhu ekhaya. Ikakhulukazi njengoba ukuhlasela kudale umuzwa onamandla we-jingoism nomdlandla wangempela wempi phakathi kwesigaba somphakathi. Bakwazi ukuhlanganisa izinto ezisabelayo kakhulu, ezinolaka kakhulu, izici ezimbi kakhulu zomphakathi waseRussia ngemuva kwempi. Inkinga manje ukuthi lezi zici seziyingozi ngisho nakumbuso ngokwawo, ngoba ngaleso sikhathi umbuso uxoxisana futhi uzuza noma yiluphi uhlobo lokuxazulula, ngokushesha uzoba yinhloso yala mandla okuphendula.
Lokhu kwase kubonakala ngo-April, lapho a umhlangano phakathi kwezithunywa zaseRussia nase-Ukraine e-Istanbul yavuma uhlobo oluthile lwesivumelwano esihlanganisa isimemezelo sase-Ukraine sokuthi ngeke ijoyine i-NATO. Lokhu kwakuyinto iRussia eyayingayisebenzisa ukuze ithethelele ukuhlasela kwayo futhi ikhombe njengokunqoba. Kodwa nakuba abase-Ukraine babekulungele ukuyisayina, iRussia ayizange isayine. Ukuze siqonde ukuthi kungani, kudingeka sibheke okwenzeka ngaphakathi eRussia. Ngalo kanye usuku abamemezela ngalo lesi sivumelwano sokuqala, kwaba nokuqubuka kwentukuthelo nenzondo kwangempela emithonjeni yezindaba esekela uhulumeni, ukuhlubuka kwangempela kweqembu elisekela impi, okwakuhlanganisa nokusongela ukubulala ababexoxisana. Ephendula, iRussia yahoxa esivumelwaneni. Bebhekene namandla avela esihogweni ababewakhiphile, abantu bakaPutin baba novalo.
Bese ucabanga ukuthi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, unomuzwa wokulwa nempi onamandla kakhulu, noma ngabe ucindezelwe kakhulu. Ukuphatha kukaPutin kubambeke kakhulu phakathi kwedwala nendawo eqinile, ngoba unomuzwa onamandla wokulwa nempi futhi unenhlangano esekela impi, i-jingoistic, militaristic, izwe elizophikisana ngaso leso sikhathi lapho umbuso ufinyelela khona. ukuxazulula.
Isimo esibi kunazo zonke sikaPutin - futhi asishiywa ngaphandle kokuthi ngesikhathi esithile lokhu kungase kwenzeke, ikakhulukazi uma iRussia ihlulwe kwezempi - ukuthi la mabutho, ahluke kakhulu futhi aphikisana nomunye nomunye kuzo zonke izindaba, angahlasela ngokuzumayo. umbuso ngasikhathi sinye uvela ezinhlangothini ezihlukene. Yilokhu okwenzeka eRussia ngo-1917, lapho umbuso wama-tsarist ubhidlika hhayi nje ngenxa yamabutho aphikisana nempi, kodwa nangenxa yentukuthelo yalabo ababephakathi kwezempi kanye nombuso ababengajabule ngendlela impi eyayiliwa ngayo. . Lawa mabutho amabili ahlasela umbuso we-tsarist kanyekanye, okwaholela ekuweni kwawo. Abantu bakaPutin bayawazi lo mlando, kodwa kuncane kakhulu abangakwenza ngawo.
Ngifuna ukubuyela enhlanganweni emelene nempi eRussia, kodwa ngingathanda ukulandela iphuzu oliphakamisile mayelana namabutho alwela izwe akude kwesokudla adedelwe eRussia. Lokhu kuhlobene nengxoxo ezungeze i-fascism eRussia nase-Ukraine. Ubahlonipha kanjani ohulumeni baseMoscow naseKyiv kanye neqhaza elibanjwe ama-fascist noma ama-de nationalists akude kwesokudla ngaphakathi noma ngaphandle kwalaba hulumeni? Ingabe impi iye yasiza ekunqandeni lezi zindlela noma ingabe iye yavula isikhala kwamanye amazwi?
Zombili izinhlangothi zisola olunye uhlangothi ngokuba yi-fascist, kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi alukho uhlangothi oluyi-fascist. Sekushiwo lokho, imibono yelungelo elikude, kanye nokuthambekela okujwayelekile kwe-right-wing populism, ngisho ne-fascism, ikhona kuwo womabili la mazwe.
Mayelana nokuqukethwe kwazo kwezepolitiki nezenhlalo, lezi zinhlangothi zombili azihlukene kakhulu. Yebo, kunomehluko. Isibonelo, i-Ukraine inombuso obuthakathaka kakhulu. Lokhu kudala izikhala lapho ilungelo elikude lingakwazi ukwenza imisebenzi yengcindezelo engalawulwa uhulumeni, kwezinye izimo ngokusekelwa izici zezinsizakalo zokuphepha zase-Ukraine. Umbuso waseRussia awuzivumeli izinto ezinjalo ukuba zenzeke. Awekho amathuluzi engcindezelo ayimfihlo noma ama-paramilitary ngoba izwe lase-Russia linegunya eliphelele phezu kwengcindezelo. E-Russia, ingcindezelo iphakathi nendawo, kuyilapho e-Ukraine ihlukaniswa. Ngasikhathi sinye, ngokungafani neRussia, i-Ukraine inomphakathi ongacindezelwe, ngoba izwe libuthakathaka. Umbuso awuzange ucindezele umphakathi wase-Ukraine ngoba awunawo amandla okuwucindezela njengaseRussia.
Omunye umehluko ukuthi i-oligarchy yase-Ukraine ayihlanganisiwe, kuyilapho i-oligarchy yaseRussia ihlanganiswa eduze kukaPutin - noma okungenani kuze kube muva nje. I-oligarchy yase-Ukraine ayizange ihlanganiswe ngoba yayingenawo okuningi endleleni kawoyela noma ezinye izinsiza ezazingathengiswa emakethe yomhlaba wonke ukuze kutholwe imali engenayo kalula. Esikhundleni salokho, ama-oligarchs ase-Ukraine alwa ngokuhlelekile. Lokhu kwakha isithombe se-Ukraine njengentando yeningi yabantu abaningi, engesiyo. Kunalokho, yizwe elibuthaka elinama-oligarchies aqhudelanayo, into efana kakhulu nalokho isazi sezombangazwe esidumile uRobert Dahl akubiza ngokuthi i-polyarchy.
Ngakho-ke kukhona umehluko, kodwa akuguquli iqiniso lokuthi okuqukethwe kwemibono yobuzwe baseRussia nase-Ukraine kufana kakhulu futhi isimo senhlalo sombuso kanye ne-capitalism kuwo womabili amazwe afana kakhulu. Zombili zibuswa i-oligarchic, i-peripheral capitalism.
Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi kunezimpawu ezinhle kakhulu ohlangothini lwase-Ukraine. Ake sicace, ayikho indlela yokuthi ungaba nenhlangano yokulwa nempi e-Ukraine. Kuyaqondakala lokho ngoba i-Ukraine iyizwe elihlaselwayo. Kuyisisulu sobudlova baseRussia. Lapho idolobha lakho liqhunyiswa ngamabhomu futhi lidutshulwa nsuku zonke, awukwazi ukubhikisha ngokumelene namabutho akho ahlomile, alwela ukukugcina uphephile.
Kodwa kukhona ukuthambekela okukhula ngokumelene nobuzwe base-Ukraine emphakathini wase-Ukraine kanye nempikiswano ekhulayo mayelana nokuthi yini okufanele yenziwe, uma futhi i-Ukraine iwina. Kuyinkulumompikiswano esebenza kakhulu futhi kwesinye isikhathi enolaka, lapho kukhona omunye wabalingiswa abathakasela kakhulu Oleksiy Arestovych. Ungowamasosha futhi ungumeluleki nomkhulumeli weZelensky. Anginaso isiqiniseko sokuthi siqine kangakanani isikhundla sakhe kubaphathi, kodwa usedume kakhulu eRussia nase-Ukraine. U-Arestovych ulokhu ephusha umlayezo wokuthi hlobo luni lwe-Ukraine entsha okufanele iqhamuke kule mpi: enqoba ukuhlukana phakathi kwempumalanga nentshonalanga, phakathi kwezikhulumi zesiRashiya nezikhulumi zase-Ukraine. Ukhuluma ngesidingo sokufaneleka kolimi lwesiRashiya njengolimi lobunikazi base-Ukraine, ukukhuthaza isiko lesiRashiya e-Ukraine, nokunika ithemba labo abavela eRussia abafuna ukuhlala nokusebenza e-Kyiv. Uthi i-Ukraine entsha kufanele inqobe ukuhlukana futhi ihlanganise wonke umuntu.
Ngenxa yalokhu, uhlaselwa ngokuhlelekile ngakwesokudla, okuhlanganisa nezinsongo ezibhekiswe kuye nomndeni wakhe. Abashisekeli bezwe base-Ukraine bayamzonda, kodwa kuncane kakhulu abangakwenza, ngoba usengumuntu odumile, okuhlanganisa nangaphakathi kwebutho. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi emgqeni ongaphambili, ibutho lase-Ukraine ikakhulukazi lakhiwe izikhulumi zesiRashiya. Phezu kwalokhu, unombutho wezokuVikela weTerritorial, ibutho lamavolontiya elinamasosha ahlomile angaba ngu-200,000 alwa empumalanga ye-Ukraine, nawo akhuluma isiRashiya kakhulu. Ngakho-ke kubonakala sengathi kungenzeka ukuthi i-Ukraine izobhekana namashifu abucayi kakhulu emikhombandlela yomphakathi ohlangene kakhulu uma impi isiphelile. Akufakiwe futhi ukuthi ingase ibhekane nohlobo oluthile lwengxabano yombango - noma impi yombango engaba khona - kodwa kusesekuseni kakhulu ukuthi ingahlulela.
Manje ake sibheke inhlangano emelene nempi eRussia. Siyini isimo samanje sokuhlela ukulwa nempi?
Lapho impi iqala, ekuqaleni kwakunemibhikisho eminingi impela eRussia, kodwa yacindezelwa ngonya. Iqiniso liwukuthi yayingekho indlela owawubhikisha ngayo emigwaqweni, ngoba wawuvele ushaywe uvalwe ejele. Umshini kahulumeni wengcindezelo ukwazile ukuwunqoba kusenesikhathi umzabalazo wokulawula imigwaqo, nakuba babedinga ingcindezelo enkulu ukuze bafeze lokhu. Kubalulekile ukuthi singakhohlwa ukuthi kube nemibhikisho emikhulu, ebandakanya amakhulu ezinkulungwane zabantu, phakathi neminyaka emibili edlule, kanye nomzamo wesikhathi eside owenziwe yithimba lengcindezelo lokucekela phansi lezi zinhlangano. Bakuzuzile lokhu, okungenani okwesikhashana.
Abantu manje bangathunyelwa ejele ngenxa nje yokwenza isitatimende somphakathi esimelene nempi. Ukusebenzisa amagama athile kalula kungasho ukuthi ubhekene nesikhathi sasejele. Bona ugwebe isekela likamasipala eMoscow iminyaka eyisikhombisa ejele ngenxa nje yokusho okuthile okugxeka impi ngesikhathi somhlangano womkhandlu kamasipala. Uma ngishicilela okuthile ngesiRashiya, angilokothi ngisebenzise igama elithi impi, ngoba ukusebenzisa igama elithi impi kusho ukuthi ngingathola inhlawulo noma ijele. Ngakho ungacabanga ukuthi umkhathi unjani.
Noma kunjalo, uma ubheka ezinkundleni zokuxhumana zaseRussia, lapho ungathumela khona ngokungaziwa, umkhathi mubi kakhulu maqondana nempi. Abantu bagxeka kakhulu futhi bashicilela imibhalo eminingi ethukuthele kakhulu ngokumelene nempi. Ngakho-ke inhlangano yokulwa nempi ibuthakathaka kakhulu, kodwa inamandla amakhulu.
Iyiphi indima edlalwe kwesokunxele ekuhleleni ukulwa nezimpi? Yini ongasitshela yona mayelana nezikhundla ezithathwe yiQembu LamaKhomanisi leRussian Federation mayelana nempi?
Amaqembu asemthethweni ngaphakathi kweDuma aseka impi kanye nombuso, okuhlanganisa namaqembu amabili azenza “ahlangothi kwesokunxele”: IQembu LamaKhomanisi LeRussian Federation (CPRF) kanye nalabo ababizwa ngentando yeningi yezenhlalo ye-A Just Russia. Kodwa uma ubheka ujule, uyabona ukuthi lapho benezishoshovu zezikhundla namafayela phansi, laba bantu bavamise ukuthi bamelene kakhulu nezimpi. Impela abaningi bayawashiya la maqembu. Abanye baye bamemezela ukuphikisa kwabo obala, njenge Yevgeny Stupin, isekela elinothando nelidume kakhulu [le-CPRF] eMoscow City Duma, noma U-Andrei Danilov, ungqondongqondo othakazelisayo nodumile wase-Yakutia. Kukhona nabaholi abasha abasafufusa okuhlanganisa nabangaphakathi kula maqembu. Unayo, isibonelo, Anna Ochkina, owayengomunye wamazwi amakhulu wesobunxele ngaphakathi kwe-A Just Russia kodwa owashiya iqembu, wenza isitatimende esidlangalaleni ngokumelene nempi. Ngaleyo ndlela, nakuba abaholi bekhuluma bevuna impi, abasekelwa yinoma yimaphi amabutho anamandla aphansi. Phansi, isinxele sithi, akufanele ngithi “iphilile” kodwa iyaphila impela, futhi iyasebenza futhi iyakhula.
Okunye okumele sikuqaphele yikuthi abantu abanengi abavela emaqenjini aphikisayo asebephumile elizweni. Uhulumeni wabiza esidlangalaleni abaningi babo ngokuthi “ama-foreign agents”. Wonke umuntu uyazi ukuthi okulandelayo ngemuva kokubizwa nge-agent yangaphandle ukuthi uboshiwe, yingakho abaningi behamba. Bangibize nge-agent yangaphandle, ngiyacabanga ngenhloso yokufuna ngihambe, kodwa ngeke ngihambe. Umkhiqizo othokozisayo wale nqubomgomo kube ukuthi, ngenkathi iningi labaholi bamaqembu aphikisayo beshiye izwe - ngaphandle kokumbalwa, njengokuthi U-Alexey Navalny, owayesejele kakade, futhi Ilya Yashin, osanda kufakwa ejele - labo abaye bahlala eRussia iningi labo lisuka kwesokunxele. Ngakho-ke, ngokuthakazelisayo, kwesokunxele manje sekuba uhlobo lwamandla e-hegemonic ngaphakathi kwenhlangano yokulwa nempi.
Ukunyakaza okulwa nempi kungokoqobo, noma ngabe kuphoqelelwe ngaphansi komhlaba. Futhi kuyaqina, ngoba abantu sebeqala ukuqonda ukuthi akukhona nje ngempi: kumayelana nohlelo lwezepolitiki nezenhlalo. Isibonakaliso esithakazelisa kakhulu salokhu ukuthi izingxenye zokuphikiswa kwenkululeko ezazivame ukusola kakhulu kunoma yini engakwesokunxele, manje zihamba kwesokunxele. Ngokwesibonelo, u-Yashin usanda kumemezela ukuthi wayenokungavumelani okuthile no-Navalny ngoba yena ngokwakhe uziveza njengomuntu ongakwesobunxele, okwakusimangaza ngoba sasihlale sicabanga ngaye njengomuntu okhululekile. Esinye isibonelo yilesi Yulia Galyamina, umuntu onothando kakhulu futhi obalulekile weqembu eliphikisayo, osanda kwenza isitatimende sokuthi abangani bakhe abakhulu kule nhlangano bangamakhomanisi. Ngakho kukhona nakanjani shift ngakwesobunxele ngaphakathi ukunyakaza.
Ekugcineni, ngifuna ukuphendukela enjongweni yaseNtshonalanga ngeRussia kanye nendaba yokushintsha kombuso. Ubhale muva nje ukuthi nakuba abaholi basentshonalanga “bengeke bavumele iRussia ukuthi inqobe impi ... abafisi ngempela ukuthi kushintshwe umbuso waseRussia.” Lokhu kubonakala kunqamula ukulandisa okubusayo eNtshonalanga, ngisho nabaseNtshonalanga bashiye, ukuthi ngemuva kwezisusa ze-US empini yase-Ukraine ukwenza buthaka iRussia futhi kukhuthaze uhlobo oluthile loshintsho lombuso. Kungani ukholelwa ukuthi abanasithakazelo ekushintsheni umbuso waseRussia?
Hhayi-ke, kuya ngokuthi usho ukuthini ngokushintsha kombuso. Uma ngokushintsha kombuso uvele usho ukushintsha igama likamengameli, yilokho kanye okufunwa yiNtshonalanga. Nakanjani bafuna ukuthi uPutin ehle esikhundleni ngoba u-Putin uhambe kakhulu, ngoba u-Putin akathembeki nhlobo, ngoba u-Putin unobuthi futhi, ngezinga elithile, uyahlanya noma okungenani akabikezeli futhi uyingozi. Ngakho bafuna ukumqeda.
Kodwa ingabe bafuna iRussia ibe umphakathi wentando yeningi, ovulekile, obuswa abantu abangenankohlakalo futhi abanendaba nentuthuko yezenhlalo nezomnotho yezwe? Ngiyakungabaza impela. Abakufunayo yiPutinism ngaphandle kukaPutin. Bangase futhi bafune izinguquko ezincane zezimonyo, njengokufaka osomnotho abathile abakhululekile kuhulumeni, nakuba, kufanele kushiwo, ukuthi uhulumeni usuvele uphethwe osomnotho be-neoliberal. Bonke laba bosomnotho, ngaphakathi nangaphandle kukahulumeni, banemibono efanayo nendlela yomnotho. Bonke babelana ngombono ofanayo wokuthi iRussia ihlanganiswe emnothweni womhlaba njengomthengisi wezinto ezingavuthiwe namandla, ngakho-ke incike kakhulu ezimakethe zaseNtshonalanga.
INtshonalanga ifuna nakanjani uPutin ehle esikhundleni futhi izikhulu zaseRussia zifuna into efanayo - kukhona ukuvumelana okuphelele kulokhu. Kunenkinga eyodwa nje encane: uPutin ngeke ehle esikhundleni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma futhi lapho ekugcineni ehla esikhundleni - nganoma yiluphi uhlobo lokhu kungase kuthathe - ngeke kube ukuphela kwendaba, njengoba izikhulu zaseNtshonalanga naseRussia zithemba; esikhundleni salokho kuyoba ukuqala kwenhlekelele ejulile kakhulu. Ngalokhu angikhulumi ngeRussia ehlukana phakathi; Ngikhuluma ngemizabalazo yenhlalo nepolitiki ngaphakathi kweRussia yokufuna amandla nokuba nomthelela.
Ushintsho lwangempela lusho ukuguqula iRussia ibe umphakathi wentando yeningi, obuswa izithakazelo zasekhaya hhayi izithakazelo zezimakethe zakwamanye amazwe, izimali zakwamanye amazwe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kweRussia phesheya, okuwudaba olubalulekile kwabakhethekile baseRussia uma kuziwa ekuthathweni kwezinqumo. Umphakathi waseRussia ufuna uhlobo oluhlukile lwentuthuko yezomnotho futhi abantu bayaqonda ukuthi lokhu kuyadingeka. Lokhu kungqubuzana ngokuphelele nombono ocatshangwa yizikhulu zaseRussia naseNtshonalanga.
Ngandlela thize, sinesimo esicishe sifane nalesi iRussia eyabhekana naso ngo-1916-17, lapho kwacaca ukuthi amaNgisi namaJalimane ayesekhathele yinkosi. Lokhu kwadala isimo esiyinqaba kakhulu, ngoba amaJalimane namaBrithani ayelwa, kodwa ayevumelana ngokuthi uNicolas II kufanele ahambe. AmaJalimane ayekufuna lokhu ngoba ayelindele ukuthi iRussia izobe isixoxisana futhi iphume empini. AmaNgisi ayelindele umbuso omusha owawuzoqhubeka nempi ngendlela ephumelela kakhudlwana. Uma ukhumbula, u-Nicholas II wesula esikhundleni kwabe sekuqala uguquko - into eyayingacatshangwa ezinhlelweni zamaJalimane noma zamaNgisi.
Ngicabanga ukuthi isimo namuhla sifana kakhulu: bafuna uPutin ahambe kodwa bafuna umbuso uhlale uqinile, ngisho noma mhlawumbe kungase kube khona ukugoqa okuthile emuva ezingeni lokugunyazwa kulokho okwakukhona ngaphambi kuka-2020. Ngokuyinhloko, "ukubuyisela kokujwayelekile” ngaphandle kukaPutin futhi ngaphandle kwengcindezelo eyeqisayo kanye nempi eyeqisayo. Kodwa ngeke kwenzeke kanjalo. Umbuso uzowa maduze noma kamuva - futhi mhlawumbe maduze kunokuba kamuva. Okuningi kuncike ekuhlaseleni kwase-Ukraine - uma kwenzeka, kwenzeka nini nokuthi kwenzeka kanjani. Kungase kugcine kuholele ekuguqukeni kwezepolitiki eRussia. Angikwazi ukusho ukuthi lokhu kuzokwenzeka ngokuqinisekile, kodwa kungenzeka, uma ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine kuphumelela.
Kodwa okubalulekile ukuthi akusekho ukubuyela emuva ku-status quo ante. I-Ukraine izobhekana nezinguquko ezinkulu. Futhi iRussia izobhekana nezinguquko ezijulile nakakhulu. Njengoba umngane waseBelarus esanda kusho kimi, thina - okusho amaRussia, amaBelarus, sonke esasingaphansi kweSoviet Union kanye nezikhulu zaseRussia zangaphambili - sinesiko elihle: Njalo lapho sihlulwa yimpi, siqala izinguquko ezinkulu noma amavukelambuso.
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