A few days ago a Marist Poll came out which reported an important finding as far as the Presidential race. It said:

“80% of registered voters nationally, including 86% of likely voters, say they know the candidate they plan to support and will not change their mind. 15% of registered voters have a good idea of the candidate for whom they plan to vote but could change their mind. Five percent have not made up their mind. Harris’ supporters (85%) are slightly more likely than Trump’s supporters (79%) to say they have made up their mind and will not change it prior to voting.”

So one month before the election, between 14-20% of registered voters have not made a final decision about who they will vote for.

This is a critical statistic for those of us who have already been involved, or who will be doing so in this critical last month of the campaign, in outreach efforts to communicate with voters. To me it says: Keep it up, step it up, or get more involved. This election is in no way baked in, and it is possible that Harris could win pretty decisively.

One reason why this statistic jumped out at me is because it fits with what I’ve been experiencing as I’ve been doing phone calling and door knocking over the last month and a half. Every Saturday that I could since mid-August I’ve gone to the Allentown area in Pennsylvania and done door knocking for Harris and down ballot Democrats. I’ve consciously done so in an explicitly up-for-grabs, purple-ish area, which has meant that though many of those I’ve talked with are Harris/Walz supporters, a sizeable percentage have been either Republicans or independents.

What are the main things I’ve experienced and learned from this work?

-One would be what the Marist survey says about the number of voters still “gettable” by those of us who understand the existential threat a Trump Presidency represents. As an example, on one of the Saturdays that I knocked on doors I spoke to four people who told me they were Republicans. When I asked them who they were supporting for President, one said Trump, and three said they didn’t know, they were conflicted. This example, similar to what I’ve experienced other days, is why the 14-20% number reported by Marist as not firm in their Presidential choice seems just about right.

-I’ve also been encouraged by the way my interactions have gone with the 125 or so people who I’ve spoken to in person doing this work, those at home and willing to open their door to a stranger. I’ve certainly had people make it clear that they’ve made up their mind and don’t want to talk to me, and there was one person who spoke to me pretty aggressively about his pro-Trump feelings, but that’s about it so far. As I expected going into this work, based on past experience, the fact that I was a live human being there in person, volunteering for something I believed in, being polite and willing to listen, face to face, counted for something.

Trump, Vance and the MAGA Republican campaign leadership are getting desperate as the fateful election day nears, so desperate that on Saturday, in Butler, Pa., Trump, Vance, Eric Trump and Lara Trump all repeated the lie that the attempted killing of Trump three months ago was a Democratic plot. They hope that these desperate tactics will motivate their base and ramp them up for the next month. Maybe that will happen, but it will also have an impact upon that 14-20% who haven’t yet firmly made up their mind.

To the extent that they experience their contact with Harris/Walz supporters as a very different, much more positive and hopeful experience, to that extent will the odds increase that Harris’s narrow lead in national polls will go up and election day turn out to be a very good day for the majority of this country which supports democracy and human decency. Si, se puede!

 Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21^st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com.

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