Source: Informed Comment

In any case, since Russia is strongly backing the Syrian Arab Army, these troop deaths raise the specter of an all-out Turkish war in Syria that could turn into a hot conflict between Ankara and Moscow.

Turkey has invaded northern Syria with thousands of soldiers and president Tayyip Erdogan pledged after a two-hour meeting of the Turkish national security council to throw everything the Turkish army has at all the Syrian Arab Army forces.

The opposition People’s Republican Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kalicdaroglu, however, complained bitterly about Erdogan’s escalation. He pointed out that there are no Kurds in Idlib and therefore no threat (as he put it) of terrorist to Turkey. He questioned why Turkish troops were there at all, and asked if Erdogan was stealthily getting the country involved in regime change operation in Syria.

Turkey appears to have wanted American and European help against the Russo-Syrian campaign. But although Turkey is part of NATO, it is fighting in Syria without any warrant of international law and is not under attack on Turkish soil. Article 5 of the NATO charter does not therefore apply, and other NATO countries are not obliged to support the Turkish invasion of another country. Turkey maintains that it is engaged in a humanitarian mission and is defending innocent victims of the regime. Some of the rebel militias, however, have been linked to al-Qaeda in the past and comprise some extremist elements.

Because of the extremism of some of these groups, Russia is eager to see them completely defeated by the Damascus regime, lest they exercise an influence on Russian Muslims in the Caucasus. Some NATO countries such as the Czech Republic concur, and tilt toward Syria against fellow NATO member Turkey.

NATO is not willing to offer any practical help to Turkey in this budding war. Likewise, the United States was asked by Ankara to supply Turkey with anti-aircraft batteries. Since these would have been deployed against Syrian and Russian planes and might have drawn the United States back into Syria, Trump refused the request.

Turkey’s Erdogan therefore feels abandoned by his putative allies. He, however, has not exactly been a reliable partner lately. He attacked US Kurdish US allies against ISIL in northeast Syria, infuriating the American officer corps and public. He insists on buying the Russian S-400 anti-missile system, because, he says, the United States declined to sell him an equivalent missile defense weapon. But operating the Russian s-400 in close proximity to NATO electronic weaponry will allow Russian spyware to compromise essential NATO secrets.

In fact, now that he is on the verge of a war with Russia, the Trump administration is calling on Erdogan to give up the S-400 purchase. Washington is still, however, not offering Turkey an alternative.

Juan Cole

Juan R. I. Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. For three and a half decades, he has sought to put the relationship of the West and the Muslim world in historical context, and he has written widely about Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and South Asia. His books include Muhammad: Prophet of Peace Amid the Clash of Empires; The New Arabs: How the Millennial Generation is Changing the Middle East; Engaging the Muslim World; and Napoleon’s Egypt: Invading the Middle East.