The conflict that broke out in 2023 between the Sudanese national army and the Rapid Support Forces militia has turned the country into the world’s most devastating humanitarian crisis. Millions are displaced, thousands have died, and there has been extensive destruction of buildings and infrastructure, largely influenced by the UAE, the main backer of the RSF militia. U.S. policy toward Sudan has been ineffective and even counterproductive. 

This July, the U.S. will host a meeting of foreign ministers to discuss the situation in Sudan. This presents a unique opportunity for the U.S. to reassess its approach, maintain its interests in the country, and contribute to stability. 

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) emerged primarily from the 2013 restructuring of the notorious Janjaweed militia. They were created to support the government’s counterinsurgency campaigns in Darfur and South Kordofan. In 2017, the Sudanese parliament officially sanctioned its activities through legislation. Throughout the conflict, the RSF has been implicated in a wide range of severe human rights violations, including the destruction of villages, the killing of protesters, sexual violence, mass executions, unlawful detentions, assaults on hospitals and places of worship, attacks on journalists and media outlets, ethnically targeted violence, and the recruitment and use of child soldiers.

The U.S. towards Sudan thus far has been limited to leveraging sanctions to push warring parties to peace, in addition to sending humanitarian assistance to Sudanese refugees who were impacted by the war. This policy, however, has proven to be ineffective for many reasons. 

For instance, the current policy tacitly allows for the RSF militia to exist and have a future, which means giving  Russia and Iran the opportunity to develop a strong foothold in Sudan.  In April 2023, an investigative report by CNN revealed that the Wagner Group facilitated the transfer of surface-to-air missiles from General Khalifa Haftar in Libya to the RSF militia. The purpose of this assistance was to offset the air dominance of the Sudanese army. U.S. and French intelligence believe that Wagner was shipping anti-aircraft guns and light weapons from the Central African Republic to the RSF militia. Wagner also allegedly has been supplying the RSF militia with oil from Libya. The RSF militia and the Wagner Group were secretive about their relationship; for example, the RSF militia categorically denied any connection to Wagner, and the Wagner Group falsely claimed that it had no presence in Sudan.

Strategically, this relationship poses a serious threat to the U.S. vested interests and agendas in Sudan and the surrounding region. For example, if the RSF militia emerges victorious, Sudan will lean toward the Russian and Wagner camps and support their goals, such as establishing a Russian naval base east of the country. This move was previously strongly supported by the militia leader. Additionally, it would secure a safe route for funneling weapons from Africa to Ukraine. In March 2022, Dagalo visited Moscow, met with leaders, and also defended Russia’s invasion of Ukraine just one week before Russia launched its attack. Observers revealed that the dubious meeting was arranged by the Wagner group to find a way to smuggle Sudan’s natural resources, mainly gold, and to ensure the militia leader’s continued power. Moreover, the RSF-Wagner alliance could destabilize the entire Sahel region, where the RSF militia and Wagner once fought side by side. The U.S. is being portrayed as the “Great Satan.” For instance, in January 2023, the RSF militia leader claimed he stopped a coup in the Central African Republic that attempted to overthrow the regime backed by Wagner. In fact, in February 2024, a news report showed videos of Wagner soldiers being interrogated after being sent from CAR to fight alongside RSF in Sudan. Considering Russia’s rapid expansion of influence in CAR through the establishment of a military base, and noting that the U.S. has been blocked from using its military base in Niger and Chad has issued a message to remove U.S. troops, Sudan is likely to be Russia’s next country to fall into its camp. 

The U.S. has been concerned about the Wagner-RSF militia ties and has tried to influence Middle Eastern countries to expel the Wagner Group. At the beginning of the war, the U.S. warned against using the group in Sudan, and the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced his concern about Wagner’s activities in the country. Reportedly, the U.S. intelligence agencies have tracked RSF militia activities in Chad, the Central African Republic, and Sudan and have exerted pressure to expel Wagner from these countries and the continent as a whole. In July 2020, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Yevgeniy Prigozhin for his role in destabilizing the democratic transition in Sudan. Most recently, the U.S. Senate sent a letter to the president requesting an investigation of the RSF-Wagner relationship and its ties to Russia.  And back in August 2021, the U.S. even pledged to support the Sudanese in disbanding the RSF militia. A similar comment was made by the U.S. special envoy to Sudan, who clearly said that he sees no future for the RSF and it should be fully integrated into the Army. These measures still don’t practically address the threat of this insidious coalition. 

Another threat comes from the expansion of the Iranian influence in Sudan, as the war prolongs, the Army leadership will resort to fully relying on countries such as Iran to secure military aid. For example, Sudan reportedly rejected a request from Iran, which currently supplies SAF with drones, to build a military base in the Red Sea that was intended for intelligence gathering and to monitor the movements of the ships that cross the Suez Canal and support the Houthi rebels in Yemen. While SAF claimed Iran never made such a request, it could reasonably succumb to this pressure in the future. After the normalization of the relationship with Iran, it started providing SAF with large quantities of weapons after the visit of the Sudanese foreign minister to Tehran. 

Moreover, the recent scale of violations committed by the Rapid Support Forces members exposes that the militia leader has no complete control over it and foretells that Sudan will fall into a fragile state if the group emerges victorious. Such a scenario will prove disastrous for Sudan and its people and have widespread influence on the global supply chains and production companies. For instance, Gum Arabic, which Sudan produces more than 70% of the world’s supply and represents the main ingredient in soft drinks such as Coca-Cola and Pepsi, and cosmetic products, could be heavily impacted. Recent reports exposed that the RSF militia established checkpoints where local gum Arabic traders have to pay a large amount of money so they can proceed to their next destination. Conceivably, at some point, Putin may resort to pressuring the West through his RSF ally to stop exporting this invaluable product. 

For an extended period, the United Arab Emirates has provided financial and military support to the RSF militia, including a recent supply of foreign combatants. A recent report by The New York Times exposed that the top leaders in the UAE are directly engaged in overseeing the operations with the militia. The UAE maintains significant economic and political stakes in Sudan that it anticipates will be protected if its RSF allies gain control. These interests encompass the exploitation of gold and agricultural assets, control of strategically important Red Sea ports, and blocking the return to power of Islamist groups, which the UAE traditionally opposes politically.

This assistance has substantially expanded since the conflict began, and its impact has been devastating on Sudan; it enabled the militia to wage its war in Sudan and commit several massacres and genocides in the Darfur region. According to UN experts, it’s estimated that the militia killed 15 thousand members of the Massalit tribe based on their ethnicity. In other parts of Darfur, women were raped and abducted, and children were piled up and shot to death. For months, Al-fashir city, the main refugee area in Darfur, has been besieged by the militia. 

Insidiously, the UAE supporting the RSF seriously threatens American interests in the region, for instance, Wagner is now facilitating the UAE arms shipments to the militia and the smuggling of Sudanese gold to Russia. 

It’s time for the U.S. to fundamentally reevaluate its policy towards Sudan to attain sustainable peace and stop the rising influence of its competitors. This requires taking strong measures, primarily leaning on its UAE ally to fully abstain from supporting its plot to arm the militia and persuade it to seek its goals in the country through peaceful means.