An Open Letter to the President

September 4, 2009

"The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft agley" (Robert Burns)

And the poem ends
"But och backward I cast my e'e
On prospects drear!
An' forward, tho' I canna see,
I guess an' fear."

Mr. President, the quotes, from this poem to a mouse, seem to be a perfect metaphor for

our Afghanistan policy.  I write this today when scores of civilians have again been killed in

an air strike – this time on two tanker trucks hijacked earlier by insurgents.  As we continue

to play into their hands and offer them more and more recruits with our actions, the war is

not going well.  That appears to be the gist of your commander's report (Commentary for

Sept 2, 2009 on this site offers a discussion).

We say we are fighting the Taleban who sheltered al-Qaeda.  In fact they sheltered foreign

fighters – lauded by President Reagan at the time – who helped them expel the Soviets.  Al-

Qaeda itself has no formal organizational structure and seems to have become an idea.  

So we have al-Qaeda in Iraq, in Yemen, in Somalia, etc.  It is logical to ask, if we must fight

in Afghanistan, why not the other places?

The people we are fighting, Pashtoons, live on both sides of a porous border drawn up

arbitrarily by the British and not recognized by the locals.  Families live on both sides and

cross freely – now somewhat hampered by unpopular militaries.  No Pashtoon has ever

been involved in any international terrorism.  Their quarrel is with the Tajik dominated

central government and our support of it and presence there.  Yet, we have forced

Pakistan to violate its treaties with the semi-autonomous Pashtoon tribes living in FATA

(Federally Administered Tribal Areas) and attack them.  As a result the largely semi-literate

conservatively religious tribes, whose members often come down to seek construction and

other such jobs in Pakistan proper, are in revolt.

Before 2004, there were no attacks in Pakistan and no Taleban there; now it is suffering

continual suicide bombings with a couple of dozen Taleban groups claiming responsibility.  

The heavy-handed approach required by us of the Pakistan military in Swat to combat a

few thousand, whose presence in the valley was a direct result of the earlier army offensive

in the tribal areas, has caused devastation on a scale never seen before in Swat. Homes,

orchards (which take years to grow), livestock destroyed and estimates of two to four

million refugees.  The estimates vary because many have moved in with families in other

parts of Pakistan.

Since the border police/military is drawn mainly from local populations, Pakistan is in the

midst of a defacto civil war in Balochistan and the Frontier provinces.  Without the

resources for such a protracted conflict and dependent on Balochistan for natural gas

suppplies, it is also facing economic collapse.

There is zero support for the war among liberals here, and now respected Republican

commentators are calling for halt and withdrawal.  Mr. President, the country is telling you

something:  it is time for dialogue with the insurgents and the planning for a face-saving

departure.

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