Megan Rowling
It
must have been a day of great celebration for Ricardo and Trini. On November
5, their beloved party, the National Sandin- ista Liberation Front (FSLN), won
back the mayor’s seat in Mata- galpa, northern Nicaragua, from the
country’s ruling Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC). I’d visited the
couple about a month before the nationwide municipal elections. Ricardo, who
joined the FSLN secretly at the age of 18, had said he was “99.9 percent
sure” the party would win Matagalpa “because of the ten years of suffering
we have endured.” Although the elderly couple’s house was spotlessly
clean, it was cramped and dark, with a dirt floor. They were having trouble
scraping together the money they needed to buy medicine for Ricardo’s heart
condition.
The FSLN
victory in Matagalpa will have raised the hopes of many of the town’s
struggling inhabitants that things could change for the better. The long list
of FSLN policy goals reeled off by Ricardo included better access to drinking
water and transport, more employment, a new college, the reconstruction of the
regional hospital, and training for young people to keep them away from drugs
and prostitution. This is an ambitious program, but it’s one for which
Matagalpa and many other Nicaraguan municipalities are crying out. There’s
no guarantee that the left-wing FSLN will be able to fulfill its promises. But
the results of the municipal elections indicated that a growing number of
voters in urban areas are prepared to let it try.
Overall, the
PLC held its grip on the majority of municipalities, winning 97 of 151, while
the FSLN tally dropped slightly to 49. However, the FSLN made significant
gains in urban areas: it now controls the largest towns in 11 of the
country’s 17 departments. It also collected the top prize—victory in the
capital Managua— which is regarded as a considerable advantage for the
presidential and National Assembly elections set for November next year.
However, as the London-based Nicaragua Solidarity Campaign points out, the
PLC’s strong showing in rural areas in the municipal contest makes it
difficult to draw conclusions about what will happen in next year’s ballot.
There is little
doubt, though, that many Nicaraguans are unhappy with the status quo. During
the last decade, their economic situation has deteriorated markedly. The
radical social programs put in place after the 1979 popular revolution,
including land redistribution and universal education, were abandoned in 1990,
when the FSLN was ousted in favor of Violeta Chamorro’s coalition
government. That came after a decade of war instigated by the Reagan
administration in an attempt to overthrow the FSLN. Nicaragua may no longer be
at war, but ten years of right-wing policies have resulted in lower living
standards for large sections of the population.
In a report
published this summer, the IMF admitted that “replacement of a socialist
state by a private market may have opened prospects for growth and economic
opportunity, but it has left the poor with no formal safety nets to protect
them…the poor see improvements in infrastructure, but they do not perceive
that their access to the services of that infrastructure has improved.”
The government
of President Arnoldo Aleman, in power since 1996, has done virtually nothing
to improve living standards for the poor. Beside every roadside, PLC
billboards declare “Works, not words.” But it’s quite obvious that
Aleman’s policies aren’t really working. According to the United Nations,
nearly 70 percent of Nicaraguans lived below the poverty line in 1998,
compared with 50 percent in 1993. And figures from the Nicaraguan Pro-active
Lobby- ing Forum (GPC), a coalition of NGOs, show that real income per capita
has dropped by 46 percent since 1990. A family of six people needs $139 a
month to pay for food and services, but the average wage is $68.
Evidence of the
suffering caused by poverty lies everywhere. Passing through a village in the
west of the country, we gave a lift to an old man who had broken his arm. He
couldn’t afford the 150 cordobas ($12.50) for an ambulance to take him to
the nearest hospital—about one-third of the monthly wage for an agricultural
labourer. In Esteli, Nicaragua’s third largest municipality further to the
north, I visited a hospital that had run out of drugs—11 days before its
next delivery. In a poor neighborhood in the same town, I met some kids
seeking shelter in a church because October’s torrential rains had flooded
their homes after Hurricane Mitch. They showed me how water had risen up to
their necks.
Instituto Mujer
y Comunidad is a local NGO that provides credit facilities and training to
rural communities around Esteli. It estimates that the municipality suffers
from unemployment of 45 percent and illiteracy of 31 percent. “In rural
areas, people are very marginalized,” explains director Maria Auxilliadora
Chiong. “Where services—health, education—are supposed to be free, they
are forced to pay. And that’s money they can’t afford. The government is
not investing in infrastructure. Parents must pay for schooling—a single
mother will often have six or seven kids at school, but she’ll be forced to
take them out. And patients have to pay for everything—gauze, syringes.”
October’s
heavy rains, caused by Hurricane Keith, further exposed the vulnerability of
rural populations, which have yet to recover from the devastation of Hurricane
Mitch. Mitch struck in October 1998, causing damage of at least $1.4 billion.
In many places, the rebuilding of homes, bridges, and roads is still
incomplete. And this year, the rain was preceded by drought.
Many of the
country’s NGOs believe a solution lies in cancellation of the country’s
external debt. According to the Nicaraguan Central Bank, the debt stood at
$6.5 billion in May 2000—the largest in Central America and one of the
highest per capita in the world. Jubilee 2000, the global campaign for debt
cancellation for developing countries, calculates that, in 1999, Nicaragua
spent $65 per person on debt repayment, but only $35 per person on education
and health.
The government
has completed the interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) that must be
submitted to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund before a
country can qualify for debt relief under the HIPC (heavily indebted poor
countries) initiative. But many civil society organizations are not satisfied
with the paper’s contents. They argue that their voices have not been
represented, even though governments are required to consult civil society
when drawing up these documents.
The GPC is
putting together an alternative PRSP, which it believes will reflect more
accurately the interests of ordinary Nicaraguans. “If Nicaragua doesn’t
reach a true national plan, we’ll just continue to get further into debt,
and our problems will deepen,” argues Carlos Benavente of the GPC. According
to Oxfam, the structure of Nicaragua’s debt means that it is unlikely to be
reduced by more than half under HIPC. Yet an IMF/World Bank report of
September 2000 stated that Nicaragua’s debt must be cut to $1.25 billion to
be financially sustainable. Another problem is the timing of the process.
Nicaragua should enter the first stage of the HIPC initiative in the next few
months, but many NGO workers are concerned about the proximity of next
year’s presidential election. They fear that Aleman could hijack debt relief
for his own political ends.
With the
municipal elections now out of the way, politicians and party workers can get
down to the job of choosing candidates for the presidency. In an attempt to
clean up its image, the FSLN recently joined forces with Social Christian
Unity, the party headed by former Comptroller General of the Republic Agustin
Jarquin. Jarquin is widely respected for his efforts to fight the country’s
widespread political corruption, and resigned from his position on the
governmental auditing body in June in protest at what he regarded as political
meddling. Victor Hugo Tinoco, a leading FSLN politician who is also a favorite
contender for the party’s presidential candidacy, pointed to a poll of
supporters held shortly after the alliance was sealed that put Jarquin well
ahead of long-time FSLN party leader Daniel Ortega: “This shows that people
want someone who is distanced from the traditional leadership…. This
alliance is good for both parties, but especially for the FSLN in terms of its
anti-corruption image.” There has also been speculation that the PLC could
join forces with the Conservative Party in order to ward off the FSLN.
Supporters of
smaller political parties are concerned that they will be excluded for not
complying with the regulations of the anti-democratic electoral pact concluded
between the PLC and the FSLN at the end of last year. Subsequent changes to
electoral laws meant that several parties, including a “third-way”
alliance, were disqualified from taking part in the municipal elections. Only
four national parties were featured on the ballot papers (except on the
Atlantic Coast), and Aleman has stated his view that there are only two real
choices for voters: the “dark”—the FSLN; and the “light”—the PLC.
The next
president faces a tough task. In return for debt relief, it’s likely that
international financial institutions will continue to demand the
implementation of free-market economic policies, leading to further
privatization and job losses. But the government will have to make significant
efforts to soften the blow and actually reduce poverty if it hopes to retain
popular support. An agronomist we chatted with in a Matagalpa restaurant
warned that the country is heading towards “a social explosion.” He was
working on ways of obtaining credit for small farmers in the area, because the
bank that originally fulfilled this role has gone bust. Other banks won’t
touch this kind of customer, and agricultural pro- ducers are finding it
harder and harder to get the money they need for seeds and equipment. Later,
walking through town, I saw that the entrance to every bank was closely
guarded by security men toting large guns. It will be the responsibility of
the next president to make sure that these guns are never fired.
Z
Megan
Rowling is a freelance journalist based in London and a reporter for Reuters.
Her work has appeared in the Guardian and the Times.
