In spite of the scientific consensus, the question of human responsibility for global climate change remains a topic of debate within American political culture. Nonetheless, the United States Department of Defence (DoD), not needing to concern itself with manufactured controversies of this nature, is pushing forward with its plans for adapting to climate change. Earlier this month the department released its ‘Climate Change Roadmap‘ which details the various challenges the US military will face as climate change continues, and its effects intensify. Describing climate change as a “threat multiplier” the document is unambiguous about the seriousness of the threat posed:

“Climate change will affect the Department of Defense’s ability to defend the Nation and poses immediate risks to U.S. national security.”

The roadmap is part of a broader trend of military forces across the globe devoting greater attention, and resources, to the problems posed by climate change. According to the Global Security Defense Index 70% of the world’s nations have now declared that climate change is a national security concern. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom is integrating climate change thinking into its strategic planning and at its recent summit in Wales, NATO devoted more time to the issue than it has hitherto.

Amongst the threats diagnosed by the authors of the road map are increased frequency and severity of major climatic events, rising sea levels and attendant erosion, heat waves, changing patterns in precipitation, and growing conflict abroad. The US military is already having to devote significant resources to coping with the effects of major weather events. During the summer, USNORTHCOM battled wildfires across much of the western United States – carrying out air drops that dropped tens of thousands of gallons of fire retardant onto more than thirty wildfires. Heat waves are projected to increase in the American South West, leading to more fires and increasing budgetary pressure on the DoD.

Whilst climate change will cause the US military to be busier within the United States the Pentagon also expects to increase its operations abroad in response to climate fuelled conflict. A recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research on the relationship between climate and conflict suggests that the DoD is quite correct in this expectation. Analysts found that a one-degree increase in global temperature might lead to a 14% change in intergroup conflict. The world is, of course, on track for far higher temperature increases – the already frightening projections of the IPCC are likely to be considerable underestimates.

The road map pays special attention to the Arctic where climate change is opening up access to new hydrocarbon resources and sea routes. If there are to be any winners from climate change, Canada and Russia are the most likely beneficiaries as they gain access to new resources, and their northern territories become open for agricultural production. It is no coincidence that both states are at the forefront of climate change denial. Hoping to benefit from a warming Arctic both Canada and Russia are working to enhance their Naval capabilities in the region – with particular emphasis on icebreakers. The US is playing catch up in this regard, but the Navy and the US Coast Guard are moving rapidly to improve their own Arctic capabilities.

A primary concern for the DoD is the impact of climate change on US military bases and other installations. As the global hegemon American concern is, of course, not restricted to military installations in the United States but extends to the archipelago of more than 700 US bases and other facilities across the globe. Climate change poses a genuine threat to these installations and the ability of the United States to continue to project power globally:

“DoD installations are in essence “power projection platforms” from which the Department employs Forces across the full spectrum of military operations. As such, adapting to changing climate conditions is critical to the ability of the Department to address current and future threats, and sustain its mission.”

The dangers posed to US facilities at home and abroad are neither theoretical nor confined to the future. The report notes that American base commanders are already responding to the impact of climate change. The US Army Corps of Engineers for their part recently announced that one in three US military coastal projects are vulnerable to climate change – with one in four at extreme risk. Other threats the road map details are the effects of climate change upon US weapons platforms and the dangers climate change will pose to military supply chains. The manufacture of American military hardware depends upon the import of resources from outside the United States by private defence contractors. The military may find it is necessary to increase operations abroad to ensure the “stability” (meaning continued friendly disposition towards the United States) of producer states. Climate change will further threaten the effectiveness and combat readiness of US forces. The road map’s authors note that deterioration of the DoD’s ‘natural infrastructure’ may impair the ability of US forces to train in environments that are analogous to the terrain in which they are deployed overseas.

The road map makes it clear that the DoD does not see climate change as an opportunity to rethink the role of the United States military. As the authors note the US military plays a very significant role in responding to climate change crises both at home and abroad (the US has unmatched capabilities for rapid respond around the world). And the Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanographic Center and the  Air Force Weather Agency provide valuable data on the changing climate. The United States could divert funds from expensive and unnecessary weapons programs towards these capacities and further improve its emergency response capabilities. Unsurprisingly the Department of Defense shows little interest in this kind of repurposing of the American military. Instead, the message from the DoD is loud and clear – business as usual, routine interference in the affairs of other states, and the maintenance of American military superiority – but all of this in the context of a severely deteriorating environment. Whilst the Pentagon’s commitment to the status quo is depressing, there is at least some hope to be gleaned from the seriousness with which the department takes the threat of climate change. The United States is a country where the military enjoys enormous, if unwarranted, prestige. We can only hope that the American public start paying closer attention to what the US military is saying and doing regarding global climate change.

Alex Doherty is a co-founder of New Left Project and a graduate student in the War Studies department of King’s College London. He has written for Z Magazine and Open Democracy amongst other publications. You can follow him on twitter @alexdoherty7