Iziganeko ezibini ezinxulumeneyo—ezingama-75th isikhumbuzo sikaJanuwari 24, 1946 ISigqibo 1 seNdibano yeZizwe eziManyeneyo (ethe yaseka ikhomishini yokucwangcisa ukupheliswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya) kunye nokuqaliswa kwe-22 kaJanuwari 2021 Isivumelwano se-UN sokuThintelwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya (eyenzelwe ukuphumeza olo sukelo ekugqibeleni)—ifanele ibe ngunobangela wokubhiyozelwa kwehlabathi lonke.
In fact, however, they are a cause for shame. The nine nuclear powers bala ukutyikitya isivumelwano yaye, kunoko, namhlanje basaqhubeka bebandakanyeka kugqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya nokusongela imfazwe yenyukliya—imfazwe enokutshabalalisa phantse zonke izinto eziphilayo emhlabeni.
A similarly reckless pattern characterized the nuclear arms race that emerged out of World War II. But ukwanda koqhanqalazo oludumileyo kunye nediplomacy yobulumko led to nuclear arms control and disarmament treaties, as well as unilateral actions, that dramatically reduced nuclear arsenals. It also made nuclear war increasingly unthinkable.
Unfortunately, however, as the nuclear danger receded, the nuclear disarmament campaign ebbed. As a result, government officials, no longer constrained by popular pressure, began to revert to their traditional ways, based on the assumption that nuclear weapons promoted national “strength.” India and Pakistan became nuclear powers. North Korea developed nuclear weapons. In the United States, the administration of George W. Bush withdrew from the ABM Treaty and pressed hard to begin building “mini-nukes.”
Ukunyukela kumongameli, uBarack Obama wenza umzamo omkhulu wokuhlanganisa iplanethi ngasemva injongo yokwakha ihlabathi elingenanyukliya. But hayi iinkokeli zaseRiphabhlikhi okanye zaseRussia wayewuthandile umbono, kwaye eyona nto wayenokuyihambisa yayiyeyokugqibela kwizivumelwano ezinkulu zokuthotywa kwezixhobo zenyukliya, i Isivumelwano esitsha. And even that came at a heavy price—an isivumelwano kunye neSenate Republicans, okuxhaswa kwayo kwakuyimfuneko ekuvunyweni kwesivumelwano, ukuxhasa inkqubo enkulu yezixhobo zenyukliya zase-US "inkqubo yesimanje".
Emva kokuba uDonald Trump engene kwi-White House, ulawulo lwezixhobo zenyukliya kunye nokuchithwa kwezixhobo kwakungasekho kwi-ajenda-e-United States okanye ihlabathi. ngexilongo not only failed to generate any new international constraints on nuclear weapons, but withdrew the United States from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the Iran nuclear agreement, and the Open Skies Treaty and allowed the New START Treaty to lapse without renewal. Nor did the other nuclear powers show much interest in retaining these agreements. Indeed, urhulumente waseRashiya, emva koqhanqalazo olufutshane, olungenamsebenzi ekutshatyalalisweni kweTrump yeSivumelwano se-INF-isivumelwano esasikade sicatshulwe ngasese-ngoko nangoko sayalela ukuba kuphuhliswe imijukujelwa eyayisele ivaliwe. Urhulumente waseTshayina yathi, nangona ithanda ukugcina isivumelwano se-United States neRashiya, ayisayi kwamkela imida yezivumelwano kwizixhobo zayo.
Ngelo xesha, osithoba amagunya enyukliya, instead of reducing the existential danger to the world from their possession of 13,400 nuclear weapons (91 percent of which are held by Russia and the United States), are busily “modernizing” their nuclear forces and planning to retain them into the indefinite future. In December 2019, urhulumente waseRashiya announced the deployment of the world’s first hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles, which President Vladimir Putin boasted could bypass missile defense systems and hit almost any point on the planet. Indeed, the Russian president touted several new Russian nuclear weapons systems as ahead of their time. “Our equipment must be better than the world’s best if we want to come out as the winners,” wacacisa.
UTrump, uhlala ezimisele ukuvela "ephumeleleyo," ebetshilo esidlangalaleni in December 2016: “Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.” Consequently, expanding the earlier U.S. nuclear “modernization” plan to a $2 yetriliyoni extravaganza, he set the course for the upgrading of older U.S. nuclear weapons and the development and deployment of a vast array of new ones. These include the development of a new intercontinental ballistic missile (at a cost of $264 billion) and the production and deployment of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead that will make starting a nuclear war easier.
The new nuclear weapons are designed to not only win the arms race, but to intimidate other nations and even “win” a nuclear war. Early in his administration, Trump publicly threatened to obliterate both emantla ekorea kwaye Iran through a nuclear onslaught. Similarly, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has repeatedly threatened a nuclear attack upon the United States. Furthermore, the U.S. government has been engaging recently in a game of "inkukhu yenyukliya" kunye neTshayina kunye neRashiya, dispatching fleets of nuclear bombers and nuclear warships dangerously close to their borders. Such provocative action is in line with the Trump administration’s Uphononongo lwe-2018 Nuclear Posture, which expanded possibilities for displays of nuclear “resolve” and the first use of nuclear weapons. Subsequently, the Russian government also yawuthoba umqobo wayo wokuqalisa imfazwe yenyukliya.
The incoming Biden administration has the opportunity and, apparently, the inclination to challenge this irresponsible behavior. As a ixesha elide umxhasi wolawulo lwezixhobo zenyukliya nezivumelwano zokuthotywa kwezixhobo—kanye umgxeki obukhali of the Trump administration’s nuclear policies during the 2020 presidential campaign—the new president will probably advance measures dealing with nuclear issues that differ significantly from those of his predecessor. Although his ability to secure U.S. ratification of new treaties will be severely limited by Senate Republicans, anga (kwaye mhlawumbi uya kuthi) asebenzise isenzo solawulo ukujoyina kwakhona isivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iran, ukusayina kwakhona iSivumelwano se-Open Skies, ukuvala imveliso yase-US kunye nokuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ezitshabalalisayo, kunye ukunciphisa uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali for nuclear “modernization.” He might even declare a akukho mgaqo-nkqubo wokusetyenziswa kuqala, ngokuzimeleyo banciphise izixhobo zenyukliya zase-U.S, kwaye babonise intlonipho ethile kwiSivumelwano sokuThintwa kwezixhobo zeNyukliya.
Of course, this won’t be enough. But it would provide a start toward terminating the nuclear powers’ disgraceful evasion of their responsibility to safeguard human survival.
UDkt. Lawrence Wittner, edibeneyo PeaceVoice, nguNjingalwazi weMbali ephumayo kwi-SUNY / Albany kunye nomlobi Ukujongana neBhomu (IStanford University Press).
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela