U-Boris Kagarlitsky yingcali yentlalontle eseMoscow kunye nomhleli wewebhusayithi yesocialist Rabkor (Imbalelwano yoMsebenzi), enemibhalo ephuma rhoqo ngesiNgesi kwi Uchaso lwaseRashiya.
Kolu dliwano ndlebe noFederico Fuentes, uKagarlitsky ubonelela ngokuqonda ngezinto zasekhaya ezisemva kwesigqibo sorhulumente waseRussia sokuhlasela iUkraine, kutheni uMongameli uVladimir Putin efuna "imfazwe engunaphakade", indima ebalulekileyo edlalwa ngasekhohlo kumbutho ochasene nemfazwe, kwaye amathemba okuphazamiseka kwentlalo eRashiya. Inguqulelo emfutshane kakhulu yolu dliwano-ndlebe yavela kuqala Ekhohlo eluhlaza.
Iingxoxo eNtshona malunga nokuhlasela kukaPutin eUkraine zigxile kakhulu kulwandiso lwe-NATO, amabhongo e-Kremlin ama-impiriyali okanye impilo yengqondo kaPutin. Kodwa uphikisa ukuba akukho nanye kwezi yayiyeyona nto yayiqhuba uhlaselo. Ngoba?
Xa kusenzeka isiganeko esikhulu, esifana nemfazwe yaseUkraine, kukho izinto ezininzi ezahlukeneyo ezidlalwayo. Kodwa kufuneka ubeke ezi zinto kumxholo weenkqubo zangempela zezopolitiko nezentlalo. Ngaloo ndlela, zonke ezi zinto, kunye nongquzulwano lwexesha elide phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine, kunye nengxabano ephakathi kwe-Ukraine naphakathi kwe-elite yase-Ukraine, zikhona. Nangona kunjalo, ezi zinto azicacisi kakhulu; bangaphezulu kakhulu.
Masiqale nge-NATO. Ukwandiswa kwe-NATO ngokuqinisekileyo kuyinyani. I-NATO ayizange nje yandise kumazwe awayesakuba yiBloc yaseMpuma, njengePoland neHungary; iye yanda yaba yimimandla yangaphambili yeSoviet Union, njengeLithuania, iLatvia ne-Estonia. Ngaloo ndlela, i-NATO ayikwazi ukwandisa ngobuchule nayiphi na i-Russia, njengoko umda wayo sele ungaphantsi kweekhilomitha ze-200 ukusuka eSt Petersburg. Kwakhona akufanele sikhohlwe ukuba kwiminyaka yokuqala yolawulo lukaPutin, iRashiya yayinobudlelwane obuhle kakhulu kunye ne-NATO. U-Putin ngokwakhe wavuma ukuba ufuna iRashiya ijoyine i-NATO. YayiyiNtshona eyala ubulungu beRussia xa ubudlelwane baqalisa ukuwohloka – kanye ngenxa yongquzulwano lwase-Ukraine nakwiindawo eziyingqongileyo.
Nangona kunjalo kwakuhlala kucacile ukuba i-NATO ayiyi kwamkela i-Ukraine njengelungu elipheleleyo kuba oku kwakuza kubangela ingxaki enkulu kwi-NATO. Ngeendlela ezininzi, amabhongo aseUkraine okujoyina i-NATO adale iingxaki ezininzi kwi-NATO kuneRussia, kuba oko kwakuthetha ukuba iUkraine ifuna i-NATO ichithe imali eninzi emkhosini waseUkraine. Into exakayo kukuba ukuhlasela kukaPutin eUkraine akuzange kukhokhelele ekubeni iSweden neFinland zijoyine, kodwa ngoku yenze ukuba ubulungu baseUkraine bubekho. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoFebruwari 24, amathuba okuba iUkraine ibe lilungu elipheleleyo ayekude. Ngoku, imeko itshintshile, kwaye imbono ye-Ukraine ibe yi-de facto yelizwe le-NATO ayikho nje yokwenyani, sele iba yinyani. Ngoko ukuba sifuna ukujonga le mfazwe njengengxabano phakathi kweRashiya kunye ne-NATO, ngoko kuyacaca ukuba imigaqo-nkqubo kaPutin ayizange iphumelele kwaye ifezekise into echasene ngqo nento evezwa njengesizathu semfazwe.
Ngokubhekiselele eRashiya, okanye kunokuba amabhongo kaPutin, oku kwakukho kwakhona: Kufuneka ubukele okanye uphulaphule i-propaganda yaseRashiya ukuze ubone indlela ehamba ngayo ngaphaya kwayo yonke imida malunga ne-jingoism kunye nobuhlanga. Ipropaganda yaseRussia iqhubeka ithi iUkraine ayifanelanga ukuba ibekho, loo mmandla waseUkraine ngokwenene ngummandla waseRussia oye woyiswa ngabantu baseUkraine. Ithi iRussia iza kukhulula le mimandla kubemi abahlala apho; ukuba ayingobantu abafanelekileyo kuloo mmandla. Zonke iintlobo zobuhlanga, iingxelo ze-fascist zenziwa kumajelo aseburhulumenteni. Ngumkhukula omangalisayo wobundlongondlongo, ubutshaba kunye nentiyo.
Sisenokuthi kwakhona ungquzulwano lwangaphakathi eUkraine ngandlel’ ithile lungunobangela wemfazwe. Kodwa olu ngquzulwano luneminyaka esibhozo lukho, lunenguqu encinane kakhulu. Iingxwabangxwaba zisenokuqhubeka, maxa wambi kangangamakhulu eminyaka, ngaphandle kokukhokelela emfazweni. Xa zikhokelela emfazweni, oyena nobangela weemfazwe awufumaneki kwimvelaphi yongquzulwano kodwa kwimeko yeemeko eziphathekayo. Ngokomzekelo, thabatha ungquzulwano lweZiqithi zaseMalvinas/zeFalkland phakathi kweBritani neArgentina, olwaqhubeka kangangeenkulungwane. Inkcazo yokuba kutheni imfazwe yaqhambuka ngo-1981 ayifumaneki kwimvelaphi yongquzulwano, kodwa endaweni yentlekele yangaphakathi kwijunta yomkhosi waseArgentina kwaye, ukusa kwinqanaba elithile, imfuno kaMargaret Thatcher yohlobo oluthile lwebali lempumelelo ukunceda ukuguqula ilizwe. iivoti. Ngoko eli yayilixesha elifanelekileyo kanye lokuba kuqhambuke imfazwe: omabini amacala ayeyidinga imfazwe ngenxa yezizathu zawo zasekhaya.
Ke oyena mbuzo ngowokuba kutheni le mfazwe yaqhambuka ngoku, phezu kwazo nje iingxaki eziseUkraine naphakathi kweRashiya neUkraine ebezikho kangangeminyaka. Kwakwiveki nje ngaphambi kwemfazwe, uninzi lwabahlalutyi bezopolitiko baseRashiya babethandabuza kakhulu ukuba imfazwe iya kuqhambuka, kuba wonke umntu wayesazi ukuba iRussia yayingekakulungeli imfazwe. Oku kusizisa kumbandela kungekhona wempilo yengqondo kaPutin, kodwa amandla akhe okwenza izigqibo ezinengqiqo. Wonke umntu wayesazi ukuba imfazwe ayiyi kuphuma ngendlela eyayicwangciswe ngayo okanye ibhengezwe liqela likaPutin. Sekunjalo, baya emfazweni. Oku kubonisa ukuba aba bantu bebengakwazi nokubala ezona zinto zisisiseko. Andingomhlalutyi wezomkhosi, kodwa ndiyakwazi ukuqikelela ukuba iRussia yayingenalo ithuba lokuthatha iKyiv kwaye iphumelele uloyiso olupheleleyo. Kwakufuneka ungabi nabuchule ngokupheleleyo okanye uqhawulwe ngokupheleleyo kwinyani ukuze ucinge ngenye indlela. Ukanti ipropaganda karhulumente yathetha okwahlukileyo. Ewe, icacile ngoku ukuba ngubani owayenyanisile. Ngaloo ndlela, impilo yengqondo kaPutin kunye nendlela izigqibo ezenziwa ngayo eKremlin zidlale indima.
Ngoko unokuthi ngoobani oonobangela bemfazwe?
Ndicinga ukuba kwakukho oonobangela ababini abakhulu.
Eyokuqala isisiseko sehlabathi kunye nexesha elide. Yayikukudodobala okukhulu koqoqosho ngo-2007-8, okwatshintsha uqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nemeko yaseRashiya ngaphakathi kwayo. Ukudodobala koqoqosho kubonakalise ubuthathaka obukhulu boqoqosho lwaseRussia. Ukanti, kwangaxeshanye, iioligarchs zaseRashiya zangenelwa kuyo. Xa kwaqhambuka ukudodobala koqoqosho, uqoqosho lwaseRashiya lwehla ngesantya esikhawulezayo kunalo naluphi na olunye uqoqosho olukhulu ehlabathini. Yandula ke yachacha ngokukhawuleza kunalo naluphi na uqoqosho lwehlabathi. Ngoba? Ngenxa yokuba uqoqosho lwaseRashiya lwaluxhomekeke kwizinto eziluhlaza, ngakumbi ioli. Ukujongana nokudodobala koqoqosho, i-US Federal Reserve yaqala ukuprinta imali, uninzi lwayo lwaphela kwiimarike zemali kwaye, ekugqibeleni, njengotyalo-mali oluqikelelwayo. I-oyile yimveliso egqibeleleyo kutyalo-mali oluqikelelwayo, njengoko iqhagamshelwe ngokunzulu kwiimarike zezimali. Ukanti, kwangaxeshanye, iyinxalenye yoqoqosho lokwenene. Ke umgaqo-nkqubo weFederal Reserve ukhokelele ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwamaxabiso eoli, nto leyo eyathi yadala imeko apho, ngelixa uqoqosho lwaseRussia lwaluqhubeka nokuwohloka, iRussia yatshaywa ngeepetrodollars, kunye nengeniso eyandayo ingena kwiipokotho zeoligarchs kunye urhulumente. Isazi ngezoqoqosho saseRashiya sakha sathi oyena mhlobo usenyongweni worhulumente waseRashiya yiFederal Reserve. Urhulumente waseRashiya wayexhomekeke ngokuthe ngqo kwimali eprintwe yi-Federal Reserve: imali eninzi i-Federal Reserve ishicilelwe, imali eninzi i-elites yaseRashiya yafumana. Kwakungekho mfuneko yokuba benze nantoni na ngaphandle kokulinda iFederal Reserve ukuba iprinte iidola ezininzi. Yayilicebo labo lonke elo. Kodwa nje ukuba iFederal Reserve iqalise ukuprinta imali encinci, okanye ubuncinci iqalile ukusebenzisa le mali ngendlela eyahlukileyo, njengoko kwenzekile ngexesha le-COVID-19, ke oku kwaba yingxaki kwikomkhulu laseRussia.
Konke oku kwakhokelela ekwandeni okukhulu urhwaphilizo. IRashiya yayisoloko yonakele kakhulu, kodwa urhwaphilizo ngoku lufike kwindawo ephakamileyo. Abaphezulu baseRussia babejongene nengxaki engakholelekiyo yokuqokelelana, kufana nje nantoni URosa Luxembourg uchazwe kwincwadi yakhe. Esinye isisombululo yayikukusasaza le mali eyongezelelweyo ukuya ekwandeni komkhosi kunye nokuvelisa izixhobo ezininzi zasemkhosini, Kodwa ke kuya kufuneka usebenzise le hardware yasemkhosini ngandlela thile ukuba ufuna ukuqhubeka nokutyala imali eninzi kweli candelo.
Kodwa elo licala nje elinye lebali kuba, kwangaxeshanye, imeko yasekhaya yayisiba maxongo kakhulu. Ngelixa yonke le mali yayihamba ezandleni ze-elite kunye necandelo elincinci labakumgangatho ophakathi, ukhathalelo lwezempilo, iinkonzo zentlalontle, intlalontle - amacandelo asele exhaswa kakhulu ngemali - aye ancitshiswa ngakumbi kwinkcitho ukuze i-elites iqokelele imali eninzi ngakumbi. . Omnye umzekelo woku yayiluhlaziyo lwepenshini luka-2018, olujongene nenkcaso eqatha.
Khawucinge nje ngendlela ummi oqhelekileyo waseRashiya awayevakalelwa ngayo. Babesazi ukuba kukho isixa esikhulu semali equkuqela ezandleni ze-oligarchy, i-bureaucracy karhulumente, abalawuli abaphezulu, kunye nabahlobo bakaPutin. Babenokubona ukwakhiwa kweebhotwe ezimangalisayo - libala ngeVersaille eFransi; kufutshane nje apho ndineyam dacha [ikhaya leholide], unokubona iindonga ezinkulu njengoko uqhuba usuka apho usiya eMoscow. Yintoni esemva kwezi ndonga? Amabhotwe. Siyayazi loo nto kuba i-intanethi ikuvumela ukuba ufumane yonke into. Ezi bhotwe zikhulu kakhulu kunezo uya kuzifumana eVersaille. Kwaye oku kukwindawo ethathwa zizityebi njengodidi lwesibini; ayisiyiyo nalapho kuhlala khona ii-oligarchs zaseRashiya ezizizityebi.
Ngoko abantu bayayibona loo nto baze babone ukuba imeko yezinto eziphathekayo yabaninzi iya isiba mandundu ngokumangalisayo, ukuba umvuzo wokwenene uyehla namaxabiso ayenyuka, nokuba baneengxaki zokufumana imisebenzi enesidima. Konke oku kudala ukungoneliseki okukhulu. Oku kunganeliseki akudla ngokubakho kwezopolitiko, kodwa kudala umoya ombi. Kangangokuba ide yaba yingxaki kwizicwangciso zemfazwe zorhulumente waseRashiya, kuba akakwazi ukuhlanganisa abantu emkhosini. Abantu abasoze balulwele olu lawulo. Akukho mntu ufuna ukuzincama ngenxa yabo, kuba bathiywe ngumntu wonke.
Ngaphezulu koku, unenyaniso yokuba amaziko ezopolitiko - kunye nedemokhrasi yomgunyathi esasinayo ngonyulo olwalukhutshiswana ngamaqela awayephantsi kolawulo lolawulo-aye atshatyalaliswa kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo ngenxa yeenzame zamaqela kaPutin ukuba. dibanisa amandla. U-Putin ukhula kwaye ugule ngakumbi, ngoko ke ingxaki yokutshintshwa kwamandla yinyani ngokwenene, kodwa naluphi na uhlobo lwenguqu yeziko alunakwenzeka kulo mongo.
So ujongana njani nayo yonke lento? Ewe, esona sisombululo silungileyo kukuza nohlobo oluthile lwemeko egqithisileyo nengaqhelekanga. Imeko ethethelela imeko yonxunguphalo, apho abantu abenza izigqibo banokuwugqitha nawuphi na umqobo weziko okanye womgaqo-siseko kwaye benze naziphi na izigqibo abafuna ukuzenza. Kwaye imfazwe mhlawumbi yeyona ndlela ilungileyo yokudala imeko enjalo.
Unikwe into oyithethayo malunga nokunqongophala kweqhinga le-Kremlin lokuya emfazweni, ngaba kukho ingqiqo malunga nokuba zeziphi iinjongo zikaPutin e-Ukraine, nokuba banomdla kuthethwano kunye ne-Ukraine ukuze bazifumane?
Uhlaselo lwaphuculwa kakhulu kwaye aluzange lube nabuchule bexesha elide emva kwalo. Emva kokuba icebo eliphuculweyo lolawulo lisilele, baqalisa ngokucacileyo ukuqulunqa oonobangela neenjongo ezintsha zemfazwe post-facto. Sijongene nemeko enqabileyo kakhulu apho ilizwe lilwa imfazwe enzima kodwa lizama ukuchaza ukuba zeziphi iinjongo zalo okanye licacise uluntu. Oku kungenxa yokuba i-elite ididekile, ayazi ukuba mabenze ntoni kwaye bafuna indlela yokuphuma. Kodwa okwangoku abanakuyifumana.
Eyona ngxaki iphambili ngoku asikokuba abafuni kuthethathethwana; eyona ngxaki iphambili yeyokuba, nokuba bazuza ntoni na ngothetha-thethwano, abanakukwazi ukuyithengisa eluntwini ngenxa yokunganeliseki okukhulu okukhoyo. Kungenxa yoko le nto kunzima kakhulu kwi-elite yaseRashiya kunye norhulumente waseRashiya ukufikelela kwindawo yokuhlala. Ayisiyomeko nje yokwenza isivumelwano ne-Ukraine kunye neNtshona, abanokuthi bayenze. Kufuneka bakwazi ukuthengisa nasiphi na isivumelwano abasenzayo kuluntu lwasekhaya, nto leyo abangenako ukuyenza. Nokuba iphela njani na le nto, izakubangela ingxaki enkulu yokuziphatha, yezopolitiko, yeengcamango kwaye, mhlawumbi, nesiphithiphithi elizweni...
Ukusuka kwinto oyithethayo, ukuqhubeka kwemfazwe ngoko ke kukulungele uPutin kunokuba uthethathethwano? Ndiyabuza oku kuba ngaphakathi kweNtshonalanga ekhohlo, kuqhelekile ukuva ingxabano yokuba yi-NATO kunye ne-Ukraine abafuna ukukhupha imfazwe kwaye banqabe iingxoxo. Kodwa izimvo zakho zibonakala ngathi zibonisa okwahlukileyo...
Ngokuqinisekileyo. Kungenxa yoko le nto, kwiingxelo zamva nje, uPutin eveze ulangazelelo lwakhe lokwandisa le ngxaki kangangoko anako. Njengoko ndibhale malunga, baye bacaca kakhulu malunga nokukhwela i- imfazwe engunaphakade oko kuqhubeka ngonaphakade, ekungafikelelwanga kuzo izivumelwano, kuba abazi ukuba mabavumelane ngantoni na. Kwaye, njengoko benditshilo ngaphambili, akungenxa yokuba bengenako ukulalanisa okanye ngenxa yokuba bengafuni ukulalanisa; kungenxa yokuba abanakuthengisa oku kuluntu ngaphakathi. Ngokukodwa njengoko uhlaselo luye lwavelisa ingqiqo eqinile ye-jingoism kunye nomdla wokwenene wemfazwe phakathi kwecandelo loluntu. Bakwazile ukuhlanganisa ezona zinto zisabelayo, ezinobundlobongela, ezona zinto zimbi zoluntu lwaseRussia emva kwemfazwe. Ingxaki ngoku kukuba ezi zinto ziye zaba yingozi nakulawulo ngokwalo, kuba ngalo mzuzu urhulumente uthetha-thethwano kwaye aphumeze naluphi na uhlobo lokuzinziswa, iya kuba yinto ekujoliswe kuyo le mikhosi yokusabela kwangoko.
Oku kwakusele kubonakala ngoAprili, xa a intlanganiso phakathi kwabathunywa baseRashiya nabaseUkraine e-Istanbul yavuma uhlobo oluthile lokuzinza olubandakanya isibhengezo saseUkraine sokuba ayisayi kujoyina i-NATO. Le yayiyinto eyayinokusetyenziselwa iRashiya ukuthethelela uhlaselo lwayo kwaye yalathe njengoloyiso. Kodwa ngoxa abemi baseUkraine babekulungele ukuyityobela, iRashiya ayizange iyityobele. Ukuze siqonde isizathu, kufuneka sijonge okwenzeka ngaphakathi eRashiya. Kwangaloo mini kanye ababebhengeza ngayo esi sivumelwano sangaphambili, kwabakho ukugqabhuka kokwenene komsindo nentiyo kumajelo eendaba axhasa urhulumente, imvukelo yokwenene yeqela elixhasa imfazwe, eyayiquka izisongelo zokubulala abo babethethathethana. Ukuphendula, iRussia yarhoxa kwisivumelwano. Ejongene nemikhosi evela esihogweni ababeyikhulule, abantu bakaPutin baba noloyiko.
Emva koko cinga ukuba, kwelinye icala, unemvakalelo yokulwa nemfazwe enamandla kakhulu, nokuba icinezelwe kakhulu. Ulawulo lukaPutin lubambeke kakhulu phakathi kwelitye kunye nendawo enzima, kuba unemvakalelo enamandla kakhulu yokulwa nemfazwe kwaye une-pro-war, i-jingoistic, i-militaristic, intshukumo yelizwe eya kuthi iphikisane nangelo xesha apho ulawulo lufikelela khona. ukuzinza.
Imeko embi kakhulu kaPutin - kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo ayibandakanywanga ukuba ngexesha elithile le nto inokwenzeka, ngakumbi ukuba iRashiya yoyisiwe emkhosini - kukuba le mikhosi, eyahluke kakhulu kwaye ichasana kumcimbi ngamnye, inokuhlasela ngokukhawuleza. ulawulo ngaxeshanye ukusuka kumacala ahlukeneyo. Oku koko kwenzeka eRashiya ngowe-1917, xa ulawulo lobukhosi lwawohloka kungekuphela nje ngenxa yemikhosi echasene nemfazwe, kodwa nangenxa yomsindo wabo basemkhosini nakurhulumente ababengonwabanga yindlela imfazwe eyayisiliwa ngayo. . Le mikhosi mibini yahlasela ulawulo lwe-tsarist ngaxeshanye, yakhokelela ekuweni kwayo. Abantu bakaPutin bayayazi le mbali, kodwa kuncinci kakhulu abanokukwenza ngayo.
Ndifuna ukubuyela kwintshukumo yokulwa nemfazwe eRussia, kodwa ndingathanda ukulandela inqaku oliphakamisile malunga nemikhosi yamazwe akude ekunene eye yakhululwa eRussia. Oku kunento yokwenza nengxoxo ejikeleze i-fascism eRashiya nase-Ukraine. Ubaphatha njani oorhulumente baseMoscow naseKyiv kunye nendima edlalwa ngama-fascist okanye ama-Nationalists asekunene ngaphakathi okanye ngaphandle kwaba rhulumente? Ngaba imfazwe iye yanceda ekupheliseni olu tyekelo okanye ngaba iye yavula isithuba kwamanye amazwi?
Omabini amacala atyhola elinye icala ngokuba yi-fascist, kodwa ndicinga ukuba akukho cala li-fascist. Oko kwathiwa, ingcamango yelungelo elikude, kunye neendlela eziqhelekileyo ze-right-wing populism, kunye ne-fascism, zikhona kuwo omabini la mazwe.
Ngokomxholo wabo wezopolitiko kunye nentlalontle, la macala mabini awahlukanga kakhulu. Kakade ke, kukho umahluko. Ngokomzekelo, iUkraine inelizwe elibuthathaka kakhulu. Oku kudala iindawo apho ilungelo elikude linokwenza imisebenzi yengcinezelo engalawulwa ngurhulumente, kwezinye iimeko ngenkxaso yezinto zeenkonzo zokhuseleko zase-Ukraine. Ilizwe laseRashiya alizivumeli izinto ezinjalo ukuba zenzeke. Akukho zixhobo zabucala ezicinezelayo okanye ama-paramilitaries kuba ilizwe laseRussia linegunya elipheleleyo kucinezelo. E-Russia, ingcinezelo ibekwe kwindawo enye, ngelixa e-Ukraine iphantsi kolawulo. Kwangaxeshanye, ngokungafaniyo neRashiya, i-Ukraine inombutho woluntu ongacinezelwayo, ngokuchanekileyo ngenxa yokuba urhulumente ubuthathaka. Urhulumente akawucinezeli uluntu e-Ukraine kuba akanawo amandla okuwucinezela njengaseRussia.
Omnye umahluko kukuba i-oligarchy yase-Ukraine ayidityaniswanga, ngelixa i-oligarchy yaseRussia idityanisiwe malunga nePutin - okanye ubuncinci bekude kube kutshanje. I-oligarchy yase-Ukraine ayizange idityaniswe ngenxa yokuba yayingenayo i-oyile eninzi okanye ezinye izinto ezinokuthi zithengiswe kwimarike yehlabathi ukwenza ingeniso elula. Endaweni yoko, ii-oligarchs zaseUkraine zisilwa ngokucwangcisiweyo. Oku kwadala umfanekiso weUkraine njengedemokhrasi yesininzi, engeyiyo. Endaweni yoko, lilizwe elibuthathaka elineeoligarchies ezikhuphisanayo, into efana ngakumbi naleyo ithiyori yezopolitiko edumileyo uRobert Dahl wayibiza ngokuba polyarchy.
Ngoko kukho iyantlukwano, kodwa ayitshintshi into yokuba umxholo we-ideological we-Russian kunye ne-Ukrainian ubuzwe ufana kakhulu kunye nentlalo yoluntu kunye ne-capitalism kuwo omabini amazwe afana kakhulu. Zombini zilawulwa yi-oligarchic, i-peripheral capitalism.
Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba kukho iimpawu ezintle kakhulu kwicala lase-Ukraine. Masicace, akukho ndlela yokuba unokuba nentshukumo yokulwa nemfazwe eUkraine. Iyaqondakala loo nto kuba iUkraine lilizwe elihlaselwayo. Lixhoba lobundlobongela baseRashiya. Xa isixeko sakho siqhunyiswa ngebhombu mihla le, awunakuqhanqalaza ngokuchasene nemikhosi yakho exhobileyo, elwela ukukugcina ukhuselekile.
Kodwa kukho umkhwa okhulayo wokuchasa ubuzwe baseUkraine kuluntu lwaseUkraine kunye nengxoxo ekhulayo malunga nokuba wenze ntoni, ukuba kwaye nini iUkraine iphumelele. Yingxoxo esebenzayo kwaye ngamanye amaxesha ndlongondlongo, apho omnye wabalinganiswa umdla kakhulu Oleksiy Arestovych. Uvela emkhosini kwaye ungumcebisi kunye nesithethi sikaZelensky. Andiqinisekanga ukuba isikhundla sakhe sinamandla kangakanani kulawulo, kodwa uye waziwa kakhulu, eRashiya nase-Ukraine. U-Arestovych uqhubeka etyhala umyalezo malunga nohlobo lwe-Ukraine entsha ekufuneka ivele kule mfazwe: leyo yoyisa iyantlukwano phakathi kwempuma nentshona, phakathi kwezithethi zaseRussia kunye nezithethi zaseUkraine. Uthetha ngesidingo solwimi lwesiRashiya olufanelekileyo njengolwimi lwesazisi saseUkraine, ukukhuthaza inkcubeko yesiRashiya eUkraine, kunye nokunika ithemba kwabo basuka eRashiya abafuna ukuhlala nokusebenza eKyiv. Uthi i-Ukraine entsha kufuneka yoyise iyantlukwano kwaye idibanise wonke umntu.
Ngenxa yoku, uhlaselwa ngokucwangcisiweyo ngasekunene, kubandakanya nezisongelo ezinxamnye naye nosapho lwakhe. Abantu baseUkraine bamthiyile, kodwa kuncinci kakhulu abanokukwenza, kuba uye waba ngumntu odumileyo, kubandakanywa nomkhosi. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba kumgca ongaphambili, umkhosi waseUkraine ubukhulu becala uqulunqwe zizithethi zaseRussia. Ngaphezulu koku, unoMkhosi woKhuselo weTerritorial, umkhosi wamavolontiya onamajoni angama-200,000 axhobileyo alwa kwimpuma yeUkraine, ekwazizithethi zaseRussia ikakhulu. Ke kubonakala ngathi kunokwenzeka ukuba i-Ukraine izakwenza utshintsho olubi kakhulu kumkhombandlela woluntu oludityanisiweyo emva kokuba imfazwe iphelile. Kananjalo ayibandakanywanga ukuba inokujongana nohlobo oluthile lwemfazwe yamakhaya - nokuba yimfazwe yamakhaya - kodwa kusesekuseni kakhulu ukuba igwebe.
Ngoku makhe sijike kwintshukumo echasene nemfazwe eRashiya. Ithini imeko yangoku yolungiselelo lokulwa imfazwe?
Ukuqala kwemfazwe, ekuqaleni kwakukho uqhanqalazo oluninzi eRashiya, kodwa bacinezelwa ngenkohlakalo. Inyaniso yeyokuba kwakungekho ndlela yokuqhankqalaza ezitalatweni, kuba ubunokubethwa ngoko nangoko uvalelwe entolongweni. Oomatshini bakarhulumente bengcinezelo bakwazile kwangethuba ukuphumelela idabi lolawulo lwezitalato, nangona babedinga ingcinezelo enkulu ukuze baphumeze oku. Kubalulekile ukuba singalibali ukuba bekukho uqhanqalazo olukhulu, olubandakanya amakhulu amawaka abantu, kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo, kunye nomzamo ozinzileyo wexesha elide wezixhobo zengcinezelo ukutshabalalisa ezi ntshukumo. Bakufezile oku, ubuncinci okwethutyana.
Abantu ngoku banokuthunyelwa entolongweni nje ngokwenza ingxelo yokulwa nemfazwe yoluntu. Ukusebenzisa nje amagama athile kunokuthetha ukuba ujongene nexesha lokuvalelwa entolongweni. Bona wagweba isekela likamasipala eMoscow ukuya kwiminyaka esixhenxe entolongweni ngenxa nje yokuthetha into egxeka imfazwe ngexesha leseshoni yebhunga likamasipala. Xa ndipapasha into ngesiRashiya, andizange ndisebenzise igama elithi imfazwe, kuba ukusebenzisa igama elithi imfazwe kuthetha ukuba ndingafumana isohlwayo okanye intolongo. Ngoko unokuthelekelela ukuba unjani umoya ojikeleze umhlaba.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuba ujonga kwiinethiwekhi zentlalo zaseRussia, apho unokuthumela khona ngokungaziwa, umoya umbi kakhulu malunga nemfazwe. Abantu bagxeka kakhulu kwaye bapapasha izibhalo ezininzi ezinomsindo ngokuchasene nemfazwe. Ke intshukumo yokulwa nemfazwe ibuthathaka kakhulu, kodwa inamandla amakhulu.
Yiyiphi indima eye yadlalwa linxele kuququzelelo oluchasene nemfazwe? Yintoni onokusixelela yona malunga nezikhundla ezithatyathwe kwimfazwe yeQela lamaKomanisi eRussian Federation?
Amaqela asemthethweni ngaphakathi kweDuma axhasa imfazwe kunye nolawulo, kubandakanywa amaqela amabini azenza ngathi "iphiko lasekhohlo": iQela lamaKomanisi laseRussian Federation (CPRF) kunye nababizwa ngokuba yidemokhrasi yentlalontle ye-A Just Russia. Kodwa ukuba ujonga nzulu, unokubona ukuba apho banawo nawaphi na amatsha-ntliziyo akumgangatho kunye neefayile emhlabeni, aba bantu bahlala bechasene nemfazwe. Uninzi lwabo ngoku luyayishiya le mibhiyozo. Abanye baye bavakalisa inkcaso yabo esidlangalaleni, njenge Yevgeny Stupin, isekela elinomtsalane nelidume kakhulu [CPRF] kwiDuma City Duma, okanye UAndrei Danilov, Ingqondo enomdla kwaye eyaziwayo evela eYakutia. Kukwakho neenkokeli ezintsha ezivelayo, kuquka nangaphakathi kule mibutho. Unayo, umzekelo, Anna Ochkina, owayengomnye wamazwi amakhulu ekhohlo ngaphakathi kwe-A Just Russia kodwa walishiya iqela, esenza ingxelo esidlangalaleni ngokuchasene nemfazwe. Ngaloo ndlela, ngoxa iinkokeli zithetha ngokuphandle zixhasa imfazwe, azixhaswa yiyo nayiphi na imikhosi enzima esemhlabeni. Phantsi, ekhohlo kukuba, andifanele ukuthi “ilungile” kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo iyaphila, kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo iyasebenza kwaye iyakhula.
Enye into ekufuneka uyiqaphele kukuba uninzi lwabantu abavela kwinkululeko echasayo balishiyile ilizwe. Urhulumente wabiza esidlangalaleni uninzi lwabo "iiarhente zangaphandle". Wonke umntu uyazi ukuba inyathelo elilandelayo emva kokuba ubhalwe njenge-arhente yangaphandle kukuba uvalelwe, yiyo loo nto abaninzi bemkile. Baye bandibiza i-agent yangaphandle, ndicingela ngenjongo yokufuna ndihambe, kodwa andizukuhamba. Imveliso enomdla yalo mgaqo-nkqubo ibe kukuba, ngelixa uninzi lweenkokeli zeqela elichasayo zilishiyile ilizwe - ngaphandle nje kokumbalwa, okufana noku. UAlexey Navalny, owayesele esentolongweni, yaye Iikulya Yashin, osanda kufakwa entolongweni - abo baye bahlala eRashiya ubukhulu becala basuka ngasekhohlo. Ke, into enomdla, ekhohlo ngoku iba luhlobo lwamandla e-hegemonic ngaphakathi kwentshukumo yokulwa nemfazwe.
Intshukumo echasene nemfazwe iyinyani, nokuba inyanzeliswe phantsi komhlaba. Kwaye i-radicalising, kuba abantu bayaqala ukuqonda ukuba ayisiyomfazwe kuphela: imalunga nezopolitiko kunye nentlalontle. Umqondiso onomdla kakhulu wale nto kukuba amacandelo enkcaso yenkululeko ayekade ekrokrela nantoni na ekhohlo, ngoku ahamba ngasekhohlo. Ngokomzekelo, uYashin usandul’ ukuvakalisa ukuba kukho ukungavisisani kwakhe noNavalny ngenxa yokuba yena ngokwakhe echaza ngakumbi njengomntu wasekhohlo, nto leyo eyasimangalisa kuba sasisoloko sicinga ngaye njengenkululeko. Omnye umzekelo ngulo Yulia Galyamina, umntu onomdla kakhulu kwaye obalulekileyo wenkcaso yenkululeko, osanda kwenza ingxelo yokuba abahlobo bakhe abakhulu kulo mbutho ngamakomanisi. Ngoko kukho ngokuqinisekileyo utshintsho ukuya ekhohlo ngaphakathi intshukumo.
Ekugqibeleni, ndifuna ukubhenela kwiinjongo zamazwe aseNtshona ngeRashiya nombandela wokutshintsha kolawulo. Ubhale mva nje ukuba ngelixa iinkokeli zasentshona "zingayi kuvumela iRussia ukuba iphumelele emfazweni ... ayifuni tshintsho kulawulo lwaseRussia." Oku kubonakala kunqumla ibali eliphambili eNtshona, kwaye iNtshona ishiye, ukuba emva kweenjongo zase-US kwimfazwe yaseUkraine kukwenza buthathaka iRashiya kunye nokukhuthaza uhlobo oluthile lokutshintsha kolawulo. Kutheni ukholelwa ukuba abanamdla ekutshintsheni ulawulo lwaseRashiya?
Ewe, kuxhomekeke kwinto oyithethayo ngotshintsho lolawulo. Ukuba ngotshintsho lolawulo uthetha nje ukutshintsha igama likamongameli, yiloo nto kanye efunwa yiNtshona. Ngokuqinisekileyo bafuna ukuba uPutin ehle ngenxa yokuba uPutin wahamba kakhulu, kuba uPutin akathembekanga ngokupheleleyo, kuba uPutin unetyhefu kwaye, kwinqanaba elithile, uyaphambana okanye ubuncinci engalindelekanga kwaye uyingozi. Ngoko bafuna ukumsusa.
Kodwa ngaba bafuna iRashiya ibe yintando yesininzi, uluntu oluvulekileyo, olulawulwa ngabantu abakhohlakeleyo nabakhathalelayo ngophuhliso lwentlalo noqoqosho lwelizwe? Ngokuqinisekileyo ndiyathandabuza. Into abayifunayo yiPutinism ngaphandle kukaPutin. Basenokufuna utshintsho oluncinci lwezithambiso, olufana nokubeka oosoqoqosho abathile benkululeko kurhulumente, nangona, kufuneka kuthiwe, urhulumente sele ephethwe zi-neoliberal economists. Zonke ezi ngcali zezoqoqosho, ngaphakathi nangaphandle kurhulumente, zinezimvo kunye nendlela efanayo kuqoqosho. Bonke babelana ngengcamango efanayo yeRashiya idityaniswe kuqoqosho lwehlabathi njengomthengisi wezinto eziluhlaza kunye namandla, kwaye ngoko ke ixhomekeke ngakumbi kwiimarike zaseNtshona.
INtshona ngokuqinisekileyo ifuna ukuba uPutin ahle kwaye amagosa aseRashiya afuna into efanayo - kukho ukuvumelana ngokupheleleyo kule nto. Kukho ingxaki enye encinci: uPutin akayi kuhla. Ngaphezu koko, ukuba kwaye xa ekugqibeleni ehla phantsi - nangaluphi na uhlobo olunokuthi luthathe - aluyi kuba sisiphelo sebali, njengoko i-Western and Russian elites ithemba; endaweni yoko iya kuba sisiqalo sengxaki enzulu kakhulu. Ngale nto andithethi ngeRashiya eyahlukanayo; Ndithetha ngemizabalazo yezentlalo nezopolitiko ngaphakathi kweRussia ngamandla kunye nefuthe.
Utshintsho lwangempela luthetha ukuguqula iRashiya ibe nguluntu lwentando yesininzi, olulawulwa yiminqweno yasekhaya kwaye kungekhona kwizinto ezinomdla kwiimarike zangaphandle, i-capital yangaphandle kunye notyalo-mali lwaseRashiya phesheya, into ebalulekileyo kwi-elites yaseRashiya xa kuziwa ekuthathweni kwezigqibo. Uluntu lwaseRashiya lufuna uhlobo olwahlukileyo lophuhliso lwezoqoqosho kwaye abantu bayaqonda ukuba oku kuyimfuneko. Oku kuchasene ngokupheleleyo nembono ecetywayo ngabaphezulu eRashiya naseNtshona.
Ngandlel’ ithile, sinemeko efana nqwa naleyo iRashiya yajongana nayo ngo-1916-17, xa kwacaca ukuba iBritani namaJamani yayidikwe yinkosi. Oku kwadala imeko engaqhelekanga kakhulu, kuba amaJamani naseBrithani babesilwa, kodwa babevumelana ukuba uNicolas II kufuneka ahambe. AmaJamani ayekufuna oku kuba ayelindele ukuba iRashiya iza kuthethathethana emva koko iphume emfazweni. AmaNgesi ayelindele ulawulo olutsha olwaluza kuqhubeka nemfazwe ngendlela enempumelelo ngakumbi. Ukuba uyakhumbula, uNicholas II warhoxa emva koko kwaqala uguqulo-into engazange icingelwe kwizicwangciso zamaJamani okanye zaseBritane.
Ndicinga ukuba imeko namhlanje ifana kakhulu: bafuna uPutin ukuba ahambe kodwa bafuna ukuba urhulumente ahlale eqinile, nokuba mhlawumbi kunokubakho ukujika okuthile kwinqanaba lolawulo lwegunya kwizinto ezazikho ngaphambi kwe-2020. Ngokusisiseko, "ukubuya ukuya kwesiqhelo” ngaphandle kukaPutin nangaphandle kwengcinezelo egqithisileyo kunye nomkhosi ogqithisileyo. Kodwa ayizukwenzeka ngolo hlobo. Ulawulo luya kuwa ngokukhawuleza okanye kamva - kwaye mhlawumbi ngokukhawuleza kunokuba kamva. Kuninzi kuxhomekeke kwi-Ukraine ekhubekisayo - ukuba iyenzeka, xa iyenzeka kwaye iyenzeka njani. Oku kunokukhokelela ekutshintsheni kwezopolitiko eRashiya. Andikwazi ukuthi oku kuya kwenzeka ngokuqinisekileyo, kodwa kunokwenzeka, ukuba uhlaselo lwaseUkraine luyaphumelela.
Kodwa into ebalulekileyo kukuba akukho kubuyela emva kwimeko ye-quo ante. I-Ukraine iza kwenza utshintsho olukhulu. Kwaye iRussia iya kutshintsha ngakumbi. Njengeqabane laseBelarus kutshanje lithe kum, thina-esithetha amaRashiya, amaBelarusian, sonke thina esasisakuba yiSoviet Union kunye nabaseRussia ababesakuba ngabalawuli baseRussia- sinesithethe esilungileyo: Ngalo lonke ixesha siphulukana nemfazwe, sinokuqala iinguqulelo ezinkulu okanye iinguqulelo.
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Nikela