Isiqalo soxinzelelo lwangoku lwaseVenezuela ibe ngumxholo wengxoxo. Ingafumana ubuchwephesha obuncinci, ke ndiza kuyilinganisela apha.
Ukujonga kwi-GDP yokwenyani
Ukuhlenga-hlengiswa kwexabiso lentengo (okt real) iSambuku seMveliso yeLizwe (i-GDP) ngokwesiseko ngumvuzo odibeneyo welizwe. Ndithi "ngokusisiseko" kuba kukho uhlengahlengiso ekufuneka lwenziwe ukuhla kwexabiso lempahla eyinkunzi. Yiyo loo nto igama elithi "Gross" kwiMveliso yeKhaya eliPheleleyo. Xa uhlengahlengiso lwenziwe kwi-GDP luvelisa iNgeniso yeSizwe yeNgeniso – iyonke yonke imivuzo, imivuzo kunye nerenti ehlawulwe kuye wonke umntu kwezoqoqosho kulo nyaka umiyo. Kuyo yonke i-OECD, i Umahluko phakathi kweNgeniso yeNgeniso yeSizwe yeNgeniso kunye ne-GDP yayimalunga nama-20% ngo-2016. Nangona kunjalo, i-GDP ngowona mlinganiselo ukhankanywa kakhulu.
Ukuba sijonga umyinge wexabiso lonyaka we-GDP yangempela eVenezuela ukususela kwi-2012, kuyacaca ukuba ukukhula kwezoqoqosho kwajika kubi kwi-2014 kwaye kwaba mbi ngakumbi kwiminyaka elandelayo. Ngo-2016, ukubiza ukudodobala koqoqosho ngokudakumba kuya kufaneleka.
Nangona kunjalo, enye inkcazo yokudodobala koqoqosho ziikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo apho iGDP yokwenyani yekota iba ncinci.
Ndisebenzise inkqubo yamanani e-Gretl ukulungelelanisa ngexesha lonyaka i-GDP yokwenyani yaseVenezuela ukusuka kwi-1999 (unyaka wokuqala u-Chavez ekwi-ofisi) ukuya kwikota yesithathu ka-2018 (ikota yokugqibela apho iBhanki Enkulu ikhuphe idatha). Qaphela ukuba idatha yeBhanki ePhakathi ithathwa njengechanekile yi-economist yenkcaso uFrancisco Rodriguez nangona uye wagxeka urhulumente ngokubamba idatha.[1]
Iikota ezinokukhula okungekuhle zinombala opinki kolu luhlu lungasentla.
Ukuba idatha ilungiswa ngexesha lonyaka ukususela ngo-1999 ngoko iikota ezilandelelanayo zokukhula okungalunganga akuzange kwenzeke de kube sekuqaleni kwe-2015, apho amaxabiso eoli apho iVenezuela ixhomekeke khona yehla malunga nesiqingatha. Ukuba idatha ihlengahlengiswa ngamaxesha athile ukususela ngo-2004 ngoko ke ukudodobala koqoqosho okufutshane kwenzeka ngo-2013 okulandelwa kukuchacha ngo-2014 (ngokukodwa emva kokuphela koqhanqalazo olunobundlobongela luka-2014). Ukuchacha emva koko kwaphela ngokuhla kwamaxabiso eoli ngasekupheleni kuka-2014 kwaye kuqhubeka (kunye nokuba mandundu) kumaxesha alandelayo.
Izothuso ezininzi kuqoqosho lwaseVenezuela ukusukela ngo-1999 - iinzame zobhukuqo-mbuso ezintandathu, utshintsho olumandla kumaxabiso e-oyile, kunye nezohlwayo zase-US - uhlengahlengiso lwexesha lonyaka. Andiboni siseko sinjongo yokuthatha isigqibo sokuba yeyiphi kwezi zilungiso ezifanelekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, kuzo zombini sibona ukuba i-Venezuela yangoku, kunye neqhubekayo, i-spiral ehlayo ihambelana nokuwa kwamaxabiso e-oyile ekupheleni kuka-2014.[2] Kwikota yokugqibela ka-2014 kuphela, amaxabiso e-oli ekrwada ehle phantse ngesiqingatha. Ukudilika kwakhona kwagcinwa ixesha elide kunokuba abahlalutyi abathembekileyo babeqikelele.
Amaxabiso e-Oli eKrwada: Oct – Dec 2014
[1] Nge-29 kaJulayi, 2019 u-Rodriguez wabhala "... kusekho into encinci ebonisa ukuba ulawulo lukaNicolás Maduro luphambukile idatha olupapashiweyo." Ingxelo enesihloko esithi "I-VENEZUELA ITHUMELA IPLUNGE KUTSHA ENTSHA". Enyanisweni, kwingxelo efanayo wabhala iBhanki ePhakathi ekhutshwe ngoMeyi ka-2019 "iqinisekisa umbono wethu wokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso asixhenxe achazwe yiNdlu yoWiso-mthetho yeSizwe yayiphezulu kakhulu"
[2] Idatha yexabiso leoli yathathwa ukusuka kwindawo yoQoqosho loRhwebo.
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