Umbuzo. Yintoni uSeumas Milne, uOwen Jones, uMehdi Hasan, uLaurie Penny, uJulie Bindel noRichard Seymour bonke abafanayo? Bonke, ewe, ngabahlalutyi abaphambili abasekhohlo ababhalela amaphephandaba aqhelekileyo njenge Guardian. Kwaye bonke benza umsebenzi oqaqambileyo wokutsalela ingqalelo kwimiba emininzi ebalulekileyo. Kodwa bakwanenye into abafana ngayo โ bonke baye bathetha kancinci ngotshintsho lwemozulu olwenziwe ngumntu.
Mhlawumbi ukuswela kwabo inkxalabo kungenxa yokuba impilo yemozulu yethu ayibalulekanga kangako okanye icinezeleke ngakumbi? Ngapha koko, yintoni enokubaluleka ngakumbi okanye ecinezelekileyo kunemiba efana nemfazwe noxolo, i-ajenda kaRhulumente yobungqongqo, unyulo olulandelayo, intlupheko, ukungalingani, intiyo yabantu abathandanayo, ubuhlanga okanye ubufazi?
Iinyaniso ezisisiseko malunga nokutshintsha kwemozulu zikhomba kwinyani eyahlukileyo. Kwango-2009 owayesakuba ngusosiba-jikelele weZizwe Ezimanyeneyo uKofi Annan, iGlobal Humanitarian Forum, yabonisa indlela ukutshintsha kwemozulu okubangele ngayo ukufa kwabantu abangama-300,000 ngonyaka nokuchaphazela abantu abazizigidi ezingama-300. Kwaye kunye nemvumelwano yezenzululwazi eqikelela ukuba ihlabathi ngoku lijonge ukonyuka kwamaqondo obushushu obuncinci obuyi-4ยฐC kumanqanaba ka-1990 ngo-2100 (kwaye mhlawumbi nangaphambili), ikamva likhangeleka limfiliba ngokwenene.
IBhanki yeHlabathi ishwankathele ukuba eli kamva liza kujongeka njani kwingxelo yayo yowama-2012 ethi 'Yehlisa Ubushushu: Kutheni i-4ยฐC iLizwe elifudumeleyo kufuneka liphetshwe'. "Iimeko ze-4 ยฐ C zibuhlungu", isandulela sengxelo siyacacisa. โUkuntywiliselwa kwezixeko eziselunxwemeni; ukwanda kwemingcipheko yemveliso yokutya okunokukhokelela kumazinga aphezulu okungondleki; imimandla emininzi eyomileyo iba neyomileyo, imimandla emanzi ibe manzi; amaza obushushu angazange abonwe kwimimandla emininzi, ngakumbi kwiindawo ezishushu; kwandisa kakhulu ukunqongophala kwamanzi kwimimandla emininzi; ukwanda okuphindaphindwayo kwezitshingitshane zetropiki; kunye nelahleko engenakulungiseka yezinto eziphilayo ezahlukeneyo, kuquka nenkqubo ye-coral reef.โ Masingene kwisibini sezi ndawo ngeenkcukacha ezithe chatha. Ngokutsho kwengxelo ye-Guardian ka-2009 uphando olutsha olwenziwe ngoososayensi bemozulu lubonisa ukuba amaqondo olwandle anokonyuka ngemitha okanye ngaphezulu ngo-2100, nto leyo echaphazela โishumi ekhulwini labemi behlabathi โ malunga nezigidi ezingama-600โ abahlala kwiindawo ezisesichengeni. Ngokuphathelele impembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu kwiilwandlekazi zethu, ulwandle olwalufudula lusenza olu lwandle lube neasidi ngakumbi, iNkqubo yaMazwe ngaMazwe ngoBume boLwandle yashwankathela le meko ngolu hlobo lulandelayo: โOku [kunyibilika kweasidi] akunakwenzeka ngaphambili kwimbali eyaziwayo yoMhlaba. Singena kwindawo engaziwayo yotshintsho lwe-ikhosistim yolwandle, kwaye sibeke esichengeni izinto eziphilayo kuxinzelelo lwendaleko olunganyamezelekiyo. Ukuphela kwenyambalala elandelayo kusenokwenzeka ukuba sele kuqalile.โ
Ayikoyiki ngokwaneleyo kuwe? U-Kevin Anderson, uNjingalwazi wezaMandla kunye noTshintsho lweMozulu kwiYunivesithi yaseManchester, uthi umhlaba we-4 ยฐ C uya "kungahambelani noluntu olulungelelanisiweyo lwehlabathi." Abathathu bababhali abasebenzisanayo kwisahluko sezempilo se-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ingxelo kutsha nje babhale ukuba โutshintsho lwemozulu oluqhutywa ngumntu lubeka isoyikiso esikhulu, esingazange sibonwe ngokohlobo nesikali, kwintlalontle, impilo kwaye mhlawumbi nasekuphileni komntu. .โ
Iya iba worse. Kunyaka ophelileyo uMlawuli oPhetheyo we-International Energy Agency wathi ihlabathi ngoku likwi-4 ยฐ C kodwa i-6 ยฐ C yokufudumala ngo-2100 - inani elikwaxelwe kwangaphambili yiProjekthi ye-Global Carbon, iqela lezenzululwazi ezingama-31 ezivela kumazwe asixhenxe. nguNjingalwazi uCorinne Le Quรฉrรฉ, ngoku uMlawuli weZiko leTyndall loPhando loTshintsho lweMozulu. Ingcaphephe yemozulu uMark Lynas, umbhali wencwadi ephumelele ibhaso ethi Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, uthi ukonyuka kwe-6ยฐC ngo-2100 kuya kuthetha ukuba โayikho into esingayi kujongana nayo ngaphandle kokuphela kwehlabathi.โ
Ngemeko emaxongo ngolu hlobo, ezi ntatheli zikhankanyiweyo ngasentla zithe cwaka kulo mba zikhangeleka zingenankathalo. Ukuba unomdla kwintlalontle yabo bahlala kuMazantsi eHlabathi, okanye imiba efana nentlupheko, amalungelo abasetyhini, imfuduko, indlala kunye nemfazwe ngoko ke kufuneka ujongane nokutshintsha kwemozulu. โLutshintsho lwemozulu oluthetha kakhulu kum. Ngokuyinxenye kungenxa yokuba inzima kakhuluโ, itshantliziyo elingenabundlobongela laseMelika uGeorge Lakey wandixelela ngo-2012. Siya kuba kumgangatho onjalo wokusinda. Kuya kuba nzima kakhulu. โ
Ukucaca, andiwuthathi umgangatho ophezulu wokuziphatha. Njengombhali ndiyaqonda ukuba nam kufuneka ndigxile kakhulu kwixesha lam namandla kutshintsho lwemozulu. Enyanisweni bonke abaNxele kufuneka bawuphakamise umdlalo wabo kwaye benze uxinzelelo olungakumbi kulo mbandela. Kuba xa iBhanki yeHlabathi inokuqonda ngakumbi malunga, kunye nenkxalabo malunga neengozi zokutshintsha kwemozulu emhlabeni kunabaninzi babahlalutyi bethu abaphezulu bephiko lasekhohlo, kukho into engalunganga kakhulu.
*Uguqulelo lweli nqaku lwavela kwiKhwezi lokusa
U-Ian Sinclair ngumbhali wencwadi ethi The March That Shook Blair: An Oral History of 15 February 2003, eyapapashwa nguPeace News Press. Ubhale kwitweets @IanJSinclair
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