Kuye kwacaca kangangexesha elithile ukuba ukudalwa kweyuro kwaba yimpazamo enkulu. IYurophu ayizange ibe nemiqathango yemali enye ephumelelayo - ngaphezu kwayo yonke into, uhlobo lwemali kunye nebhanki yebhanki ethi, umzekelo, iqinisekisa ukuba xa i-bubble yezindlu eFlorida iqhuma, iWashington ikhusela ngokuzenzekelayo abantu abadala kuso nasiphi na isoyikiso sonyango okanye ibhanki yabo. iidiphozithi.
Ukushiya umanyano lwemali, nangona kunjalo, sisigqibo esinzima kakhulu kwaye esoyikeka ngakumbi kunokuba singazange singene kwindawo yokuqala, kwaye kude kube ngoku noqoqosho lweLizwekazi oluneengxaki ngokuphindaphindiweyo luye lwarhoxa elunxwemeni. Amatyeli amaninzi, oorhulumente baye banikezela kwiimfuno zabatyalwayo zokungcungcuthekiswa, ngelixa i-European Central Bank ikwazile ukuqulatha ukothuka kwemarike.
Kodwa imeko yaseGrisi ngoku ifikelele kwindawo ekhangeleka ngathi ayibuyi. Iibhanki zivaliwe okwethutyana kwaye urhulumente uye wamisela ulawulo lwenkunzi - imida ekuhambeni kwemali ngaphandle kwelizwe. Kubonakala ngathi urhulumente uza kuthi kungekudala aqalise ukuhlawula umhlala-phantsi kunye nemivuzo kwingxowa yemali, nto leyo edala imali efanayo. Kwaye kwiveki ezayo ilizwe liza kubamba i-referendum malunga nokuba liyakwamkela iimfuno ze "troika" - amaziko amele umdla wababolekisi - ngenxa yobunzima ngakumbi.
IGrisi kufuneka ivote "hayi," kwaye urhulumente waseGrisi kufuneka alungele, ukuba kuyimfuneko, ukuyishiya i-euro.
Ukuqonda ukuba kutheni ndithetha oku, kuya kufuneka uqonde ukuba uninzi - hayi bonke, kodwa uninzi - lwento oyivileyo malunga nobugwenxa bamaGrike kunye nokungakhathali bubuxoki. Ewe, urhulumente waseGrisi wayechitha ngaphaya kwamandla akhe ekupheleni kweminyaka yoo-2000. Kodwa ukususela ngoko iye yanciphisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo inkcitho kwaye yanyusa irhafu. Ingqesho karhulumente yehla ngaphezu kwama-25 ekhulwini, yaye imali yomhlala-phantsi (eyayinesisa kakhulu) iye yancitshiswa kabukhali. Ukuba udibanisa yonke imilinganiselo ye-austerity, ibe ngaphezu kokwaneleyo ukuphelisa intsilelo yokuqala kwaye iguqule ibe yintsalela enkulu.
Ngoko kutheni kungenzeki oku? Ngenxa yokuba uqoqosho lwaseGrisi lwawohloka, ubukhulu becala ngenxa yala manyathelo aqatha, ukutsala ingeniso phantsi nawo.
Kwaye oku kuwa, kwakunento eninzi yokwenza ne-euro, eyabamba iGrisi kuxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho. Amatyala obunzima obunempumelelo, apho amazwe aphinda afumana intsilelo ngaphandle kokuzisa uxinzelelo, ngokuqhelekileyo abandakanya ukuhla kwexabiso lemali enkulu eyenza ukuba izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zibe nokhuphiswano ngakumbi. Oku koko kwenzekayo, umzekelo, eKhanada ngeminyaka yee-1990, kwaye ngomlinganiselo obalulekileyo koko kwenzeka eIceland kutsha nje. Kodwa iGrisi, ngaphandle kwemali yayo, yayingenalo olo khetho.
Ngaba ndisanda kwenza ityala elithi "Grexit" - ukuphuma kwesiGrike kwi-euro? Akunjalo. Ingxaki ngeGrexit ibisoloko ingumngcipheko wesiphithiphithi sezemali, wenkqubo yebhanki ephazanyiswe kukutsalwa kwemali okuphazamisileyo kunye neshishini elixatyiswa ziingxaki zebhanki kunye nokungaqiniseki ngobume obusemthethweni bamatyala. Yiyo loo nto oorhulumente baseGrisi abalandelelanayo bevumile kumabango angqongqo, kwaye kutheni iSyriza, imanyano yasekhohlo elawulayo, yayikulungele ukwamkela ubungqongqo obusele bubekiwe. Ekuphela kwento eyayiyicela, enyanisweni, yayikukumisa ubungqongqo obungakumbi.
Kodwa i-troika yayingenayo. Kulula ukulahleka kwiinkcukacha, kodwa eyona ngongoma ibalulekileyo ngoku kukuba iGrisi inikezelwe nge- take-it-or- leave-it engabonakali kakuhle kwimigaqo-nkqubo yeminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo.
Oku, kwaye mhlawumbi bekuhloswe ukuba, isithembiso u-Alexis Tsipras, inkulumbuso yaseGrisi, akakwazi ukuyamkela, kuba iya kutshabalalisa isizathu sakhe sezopolitiko. Ngoko ke injongo kufuneka ibe kukumgxotha eofisini, okuya kwenzeka mhlawumbi ukuba abavoti bamaGrike boyika ukujongana ne-troika ngokwaneleyo ukuba bavote ewe kwiveki ezayo.
Kodwa akufuneki, ngenxa yezizathu ezithathu. Okokuqala, ngoku siyazi ukuba i-austerity ehlala ilukhuni sisiphelo esifileyo: emva kweminyaka emihlanu iGrisi ikwimo embi kunangaphambili. Okwesibini, uninzi kwaye uninzi lwesiphithiphithi esoyikwayo esivela kwiGrexit sele yenzekile. Ngeebhanki ezivaliweyo kunye nolawulo lwenkunzi olubekiweyo, akukho monakalo mkhulu kakhulu ekufuneka wenziwe.
Ekugqibeleni, ukungena kwi-ultimatum ye-troika kuya kubonisa ukulahlwa kokugqibela kwayo nayiphi na into ezenza ngathi ukuzimela kwamaGrike. Musa ukuthathwa ngamabango ukuba amagosa e-troika angama-technocrats nje achazela amaGrike angenalwazi into emele yenziwe. Aba bacingelwa ukuba ngabachwephesha ngokwenyani bangamaphupha angayihoyiyo yonke into esiyaziyo malunga ne-macroeconomics, kwaye bebengalunganga kwinqanaba ngalinye lendlela. Oku akukho malunga nokuhlalutya, kumalunga namandla - amandla ababolekisi ukutsala iplagi kuqoqosho lwaseGrisi, oluqhubekayo logama nje ukuphuma kwe-euro kuthathwa njengento engenakwenzeka.
Ngoko lixesha lokuphelisa le nto ingacingelwanga. Ngaphandle koko iGrisi iya kujongana nobunzima obungapheliyo, kunye nokudakumba okungenasiphelo.
*Ingcali yezoqoqosho yaseMelika, unjingalwazi wezoQoqosho kunye neMicimbi yaMazwe ngaMazwe kwiSikolo saseWoodrow Wilson seMicimbi yoLuntu kunye naMazwe ngaMazwe kwiYunivesithi yasePrinceton, unjingalwazi wekhulu leminyaka kwiSikolo sezoQoqosho saseLondon, kunye nombhali we-op-ed weNew York.
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