Umngcipheko weMfazwe ebandayo unyuke kakhulu kumaxesha amva nje, kungekuphela nje ngenxa yokuhlasela kweRussia eUkraine kodwa nangenxa yokuba i-US iyamkele i-China njengembangi yamandla amakhulu ekufuneka iqulathwe. Le yinguqulelo malunga nemicimbi yangoku yamazwe ngamazwe umntu adibana nayo phakathi kwabahlalutyi abaqhelekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, umphengululi waseLebhanon wobusoshiyali uGilbert Achcar ubanga ukuba oku kutolikwa kobudlelwane phakathi kwamazwe kwihlabathi lanamhlanje kukuchazwa ngendlela engeyiyo kwendaleko yezopolitiko zehlabathi ukusukela ekupheleni ngokusemthethweni kwexesha elaziwa ngokuba yiMfazwe yoMlomo, eyaqala ngo-1947-1991, kwaye isekelwe kwimbali. Umbono obhidayo malunga nomba "weMfazwe yoMlomo entsha." Enyanisweni, kudliwano-ndlebe olulandelayo, u-Achcar uthi iMfazwe eNtsha yeCold iqhubekile ukususela ekupheleni kwee-1990 kwaye ngoku sikwinqanaba apho ingaba shushu.
UGilbert Achcar ngunjingalwazi wezifundo zophuhliso kunye nobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe kwiSikolo seOriental and African Studies, kwiYunivesithi yaseLondon. Ungumbhali weencwadi ezininzi, kuquka Abantu bafuna: Ukuphononongwa okuKhawuleza kokuVuka kwama-Arabhu; The Clash of Barbarisms: The Making of the New World Disorder; Amandla anobungozi: uMbindi Mpuma kunye noMgaqo-nkqubo we-US wangaphandle (obhalwe kunye noNoam Chomsky), kunye neMarxism, i-Orientalism, i-Cosmopolitanism. Incwadi yakhe yamva nje, esandul' ukukhutshwa, ithi Imfazwe eNtsha eCold: iUnited States, iRussia kunye neTshayina ukusuka eKosovo ukuya eUkraine. (Iincwadi zeHaymarket 2023).
CJ Polychroniou: Ukuhlasela kweRussia eUkraine kunye nentsebenziswano yayo kunye neTshayina kukhokelele abahlalutyi abaninzi ukuba bathethe ngokuqala kweMfazwe eNtsha yoMlo. Nangona kunjalo, kwincwadi yakho entsha Imfazwe eNtsha eCold: iUnited States, iRussia, kunye neTshayina ukusuka eKosovo ukuya eUkraine, uphikisa ukuba ulwahlulo olutsha lwe-geopolitical East-West, kwaye ngaloo ndlela ukuvela kweMfazwe eNtsha yeCold, inokulandelwa emva kwe-1990s ekupheleni, kwaye ngokukodwa kwimfazwe yaseKosovo. Masiqale ngokuqonda kwakho igama elithi "imfazwe ebandayo" kuba ndibona abaninzi bechasa utoliko lwakho lwentsebenziswano yamazwe kwinkqubo yezizwe ngezizwe ngaphambi kohlaselo lweRussia eUkraine.
UGilbert Achcar: Kukho ukubhideka okuninzi ngenene malunga nomba wemfazwe entsha ebandayo. Ukusetyenziswa kweli binzana akukhange kuqalise ukwanda ngoku, kodwa ukusukela ngo-2014 malunga nobudlelwane base-US neRussia kwaye ukusukela kuTrump kwabo baneTshayina. Uluhlu lwezimvo lwahlala lufana, nangona kunjalo, phakathi kwabo bakholelwa ukuba sisebunzimeni, abo bakholelwa ukuba iqalile ngoku ngohlaselo lwaseUkraine, kunye nabo basalumkisa ngayo njengesiphumo esinokubakho. ! Yintoni echanekileyo kuyo yonke le nto, nangona kunjalo, ukuba ingcamango "yemfazwe ebandayo" ayihambelani nenkcaso yeengcamango kunye nenkqubo ekhoyo phakathi kweSoviet ekhokelwa yi-US kunye ne-US. Imvelaphi yebinzana elithi "imfazwe ebandayo" kunye nombono weMfazwe eNtsha yoCold zombini zixoxwe ngokweenkcukacha kwincwadi yam.
Ngokusisiseko, "imfazwe ebandayo" yimeko apho ilizwe ligcina imeko yokulungiselela imfazwe ngaphandle kokuba (okwangoku) libandakanyeke "kwimfazwe eshushu." Ngamanye amazwi, ugqatso lweengalo lulo olwabangela ukuba iMfazwe Yomlomo ibizwe ngolo hlobo, kwaye ndiyichazile ukusukela ekupheleni kwee-1990s ukuba iUnited States yagqiba ekubeni igcine inqanaba lenkcitho yasemkhosini ngokusekwe kwimeko yemfazwe eyaliwa ngaxeshanye neRussia. kunye neTshayina. Esi sigqibo sasinxulumene nezinye iintshukumo ezixhokonxayo nguWashington, nto leyo eyandikhokelela ekuchongeni isiqalo sento endiyibiza ngokuba yiMfazwe eNtsha yeCold ngo-1999. Okwenzekayo ukususela oko kwakunokuqinisekisa kuphela olu xilongo, kwaye kunokuba luhlekisayo namhlanje, xa ihlabathi kufutshane nemfazwe yehlabathi eyayishushu kakhulu njengoko yayinjalo ukususela ngowe-1945, abanye basamathidala ukubiza umhlakulo ngokuba ngumhlakulo!
I-CJP: Ngubani olona tshaba lwaseWashington ngeli xesha ukwisiqalo seMfazwe eNtsha yeCold, kwaye kutheni le nto imfazwe yaseKosovo iguquke kakhulu kwihlabathi lasemva kweMfazwe ebandayo?
GA: Kwakukho izimvo ezininzi emva kokuphela kwe-USSR malunga nesidingo seWashington sokuqamba utshaba olutsha lwehlabathi. Abanye babekholelwa ukuba "ubunqolobi" buyisombulule ingxaki, kodwa "ubunqolobi" ayilohlobo "lomntu okhuphisana noontanga" ekufuneka iWashington iqinisekise intembeko yamahlakani ayo eMfazwe ebandayo, awathi uZbigniew Brzezinski wawabiza ngokuba "ngabakhonzi bakhe." Ngokuseka indlela eziphatha ngayo kwingcinga yokuba zombini iRussia neTshayina ziintshaba ezinokubakho, iUnited States iphinde yazingisa ukungavisisani kunye neRussia-kwaye yenze ezintsha neTshayina, emva kokusebenzisana nayo ngokuchasene ne-USSR kwiminyaka eli-15 yokugqibela yeMfazwe Yomlomo.
Imfazwe yaseKosovo yaba nesigqibo ngenxa yokuba yatshabalalisa naziphi na izinto ezingeyonyani ezazinokuba nazo iMoscow neBeijing malunga โnolungelelwaniso olutsha lwehlabathiโ olwaluthenjiswe nguGeorge Bush Sr. ngo-1990, xa wayelungiselela imfazwe yokuqala eyayikhokelwa yi-US e-Iraq eyayiqhutywa egameni lika umthetho wezizwe ngezizwe kwaye wavunywa sisigqibo seBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN esathi iMoscow yasivuma nalapho iBeijing yala. Bush Sr.โkwintetho edumileyo awayinikela, ngendlela ehlekisayo yembali, ngoSeptemba 11, 1990โwayethembise ukuba, ukususela ngoko ukusa phambili, ihlabathi laliza โkwahluka ngokupheleleyo kweli hlabathi silaziyo: ihlabathi apho umthetho wawulawula khona. umthetho uthabathelโ indawo ulawulo lwehlathi.โ IMoscow neBeijing zazinethemba lokuba iUN ukususela ngoku yayiza kudlala indima eyayiyilelwe yona ekuqaleni, ngaloo ndlela ibanika ilungelo lokuvota malunga nokusetyenziswa kwamandla kubudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe. Ngokunjalo, ulawulo lukaBill Clinton luqinisekisile iMoscow ukuba ukwandiswa kweNATO ePoland, eHungary naseCzech Republic kwakungajoliswanga ngokuchasene neRussia. Ukanti, kwangalo nyaka mnye we-1999 xa oko kwandiswa kwatywinwa ngunyaka apho i-NATO yasungula imfazwe yayo yokuqala, imfazwe yaseKosovo, ijikeleza i-UNSC kwaye ngaloo ndlela iphula umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe.
CJP: UPutin wonyulwa njengomongameli waseRussia kwiinyanga nje ezimbalwa emva kwemfazwe yaseKosovo kwaye ngoko nangoko waqalisa uthotho lwamanyathelo amangalisayo omgaqo-nkqubo wasekhaya nowangaphandle owenzelwe ukwenza iRussia yomelele kwaye, kwakhona, umdlali ophambili kwimicimbi yehlabathi. Ngokombono wakho, yayisisigqibo sikaPutin sokuhlasela iUkraine nje ngokusabela ekwandiseni i-NATO kunye nobudlelwane bayo obucwangcisiweyo obukhulayo kunye neUkraine okanye, njengoko abanye abaphengululi abaqhelekileyo baye baxoxa, mhlawumbi inxalenye yesicwangciso sokubuyisela ubukhosi baseRashiya ngembuyekezo. ukuya ku19th izenzo zama impiriyali kwinkulungwane?
GA: Kukho inyaniso kwiingcaciso zombini, ngokombono wam. Ukwandiswa kwe-NATO esempuma ngeminyaka yoo-1990, kunye ne-neoliberal โyonyango lokothukaโ eyakhuthazwa yiWashington kwi-post-Soviet Russia kunye nenkuthazo yokuziphatha kuka-Boris Yeltsin ngokuchasene nedemokhrasi, kwabeka isiseko sokunyukela kukaPutin emandleni. Kwanyanzeleka ukuba aginye ipilisi ekrakra kakhulu kumjikelo wesibini wokwandiswa kwe-NATO, etywinwe ngo-2004, eyongeza kwi-Alliance iiRiphabhulikhi ezintathu ezazisakuba yiSoviet yeBaltics, kunye namanye amazwe aseMpuma Yurophu. Emva koko wazoba umgca obomvu ngokuphathelele ezinye iiRiphabliki ezimbini ezazisakuba yiSoviet ezazijongwe yiNATOโiUkraine neGeorgiaโekwayiyo eyayinomda ofanayo neRashiya.
Xa, ngo-2008, uGeorge W. Bush watyhalela ekubeni kungene omabini la mazwe kwi-NATO kwaye wafumana kwi-Alliance isibambiso sokuzihlanganisa ngaphandle kokuthandabuza kweFrentshi kunye neJamani, uPutin wenza, okokuqala ngokungena eGeorgia ngo-2008, emva koko ngokudibanisa iCrimea kunye Ukungena kwiMpuma yeUkraine ngo-2014, emva kwesiphithiphithi saseUkraine kwangaloo nyaka kunye nokuhamba kukaKyiv eRussia. Olu ngenelelo lwalusenzelwa ukudala imeko yokruthakruthwano kunye namazwe omabini anika ithuba lokungena kwi-NATO, hleze i-Alliance ifumaneke kwimeko yemfazwe kunye neRashiya.
Ngaloo njongo, ukungenelela kwiMpuma ye-Ukraine bekuya kuba kwanele. Ukongezwa kweCrimea kusebenze enye injongo, yokuqinisa ukuthandwa kukaPutin ekhaya, emva kokuba yehlile emva kokubuya kwakhe njengomongameli ngo-2012 ngokuchasene noqhanqalazo oluninzi. UPutin wadlala ngobuzwe baseRussia kunye nokuvuselela iziqinisekiso zolawulo lwakhe kwaye ebephuhla ukusukela kwintetho ye-Russian imperial nostalgia. Ukwandiswa kwe-NATO e-Ukraine kuye kwenziwa akunakwenzeka ukususela ngo-2014. Ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine ngoFebruwari 24, 2022, akunakuchazwa ngoko yi-NATO factor. Yayilinge eliphothiweyo nelingalunganga kakhulu likaPutin lokuyoyisa iUkraine, mhlawumbi ngenjongo yokuyidibanisa neRussia. Ikwakhawulezisile ukutyhalela phambili kolawulo lwakhe kwi-neo-fascism: ubuzwilakhe bobuzwe obusekwe kwidemokhrasi yobuxoki.
I-CJP: Namhlanje, iRussia kunye neTshayina zisondele kakhulu kunangaphambili kwaye zizama ukutshintsha ulungelelwaniso lwehlabathi. Ngowuphi umahluko kunye nokufana phakathi kweMfazwe eNtsha eCold kunye neMfazwe yaMandulo eNdala?
GA: Inxalenye yempendulo yombuzo wakho kumbuzo ngokwawo: ukususela ngo-1961, i-China yangena kubudlelwane obuphikisanayo kunye ne-USSR, eyathi ekugqibeleni yakhokelela ekubeni isebenze ne-United States ngokuchasene nembangi yayo "yobukomanisi", eqala ngo-1970, de inkqubo yeSoviet yaqalisa ukuwohloka.
Okwesibini, eRashiya naseTshayina, ngowesibini amandla amakhulu kule mihla: iRashiya igcina amandla omkhosi ophezulu-nangona ilahlekelwe "ukuthembeka" ngokusilela kwayo e-Ukraine-kodwa i-GDP yayo yayingaphantsi kunoMzantsi. EKorea ngo-2021!
Umahluko wesithathu ngowokuba, ngelixa iMfazwe yoMlomo yaphawulwa ngenkcaso yenkqubo phakathi kweebloko ezimbini, iMfazwe eNtsha yoMlomo ayinjalo. UPutin unabo abantu abancomayo ngasekunene, kubandakanya uDonald Trump, kunokuba kukho abantu abangasekhohlo abaphila kwixesha le-warp bekholelwa ukuba uPutin kukuzalwa kwakhona kukaStalin. I-China, kwelinye icala, iyacekiswa lilungelo elinzima njengelizwe "lobukomanisi". Umfelandawonye phakathi kweMoscow neBeijing awukho ngenxa yobudlelwane benkqubo. Uluvo lokuba sibona ungquzulwano phakathi kwedemokhrasi kunye nolawulo lozwilakhe yinzame nje yokuphinda kusetyenziswe iMfazwe ebandayo yaseWashington yokuzenza umntu oquka iLizwe lasimahla. Inyani yokuba umntu onjengomlawuli waseIndiya onegunya elikude, uNarendra Modi, yinkwenkwezi eqhelekileyo eJoe Biden. ISamithi yeDemokhrasi, kunye nokuba uJair Bolsonaro waseBrazil osekude wathatha inxaxheba kuhlelo lwangaphambili olubanjwe ngoDisemba 2021, liciko ngokwaneleyo.
Eyona nto ifanayo yile nto iquka "imfazwe ebandayo" kwindawo yokuqala: ukwakhiwa komkhosi okuqhubekayo kumacala omabini ocingo kunye notyekelo olukhulayo lokujonga ubudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe njengomdlalo we-zero-sum, apho abalinganiswa abathathu ukukhuphisana nempembelelo yehlabathi.
CJP: Ngaba le Mfazwe iNtsha yeCold ingajika ibe shushu?
GA: Ewe, ngelishwa ewe, kwaye oko kunxulumene nomnye umahluko phakathi kweMfazwe eNtsha yeCold kunye nendala. Kwakukho iqondo elithile lokuqikelelwa malunga ne-USSR ngexesha leMfazwe ebandayo. I-Bureaucracies i-conservative ngokwemvelo, kwaye i-bureaucracy yaseSoviet yayingenjalo. Yayizikhusele ixesha elininzi, kubandakanywa xa iphuma kwindawo yayo yasemva kwe-1945 okokuqala ngqa ngokuhlasela i-Afghanistan ekupheleni kuka-1979. Yayisoyikiswa yithemba lokusasazeka kwe-Islamic fundamentalism ukuya kuMbindi. IiRiphabhlikhi zaseAsia zaseSoviet emva kwe "Inguquko yamaSilamsi" yaseIran.
Izinto zitshintshile ngoPutin. Urhulumente wobuzwe, olawula ngokwezopolitiko kunye ne-oligarchic yezoqoqosho, uqhelene kakhulu nohambo lwasemkhosini kunolawulo lwe-bureaucracy. Isiphumo kukuba uPutin sele eqalise iimfazwe ezininzi kune-USSR emva kwe-1945 de yaphela: i-Chechnya, iGeorgia, i-Ukraine, iSiriya, apho umntu kufuneka afake ukungenelela kweqela le-Wagner paramilitary eLibya, eSudan, eMali naseMbindi Afrika. IRiphablikhi. Ubukho beQela likaWagner buthetha kakhulu malunga nohlobo lolawulo lwaseRashiya, apho imida phakathi kweminqweno yoluntu kunye neyabucala inzima kakhulu.
I-China, kwelinye icala, isasebenza ngokwengqiqo ye-conservative ye-bureaucracy yayo elawulayo. Ayikaqalisi nayiphi na imfazwe kummandla wayo. Ijonga izenzo zayo ezisingise eTaiwan kunye nokuqhuba komkhosi waselwandle kulwandle olujikeleze ummandla wayo njengokuzikhusela ngokuchasene nomkhosi wase-US orhangqe i-China kunye noqhushululu lwase-US olungayekiyo.
Ngokuphathelele i-United States, iqalise uhambo lomkhosi wasebukhosini kwihlabathi liphela emva ko-1945, kubandakanya iimfazwe ezimbini ezinkulu eKorea naseVietnam kunye nongenelelo oluncinci. Emva koko yavula isiphelo seMfazwe yoMlomo ngohlaselo olukhulu lwase-Iraq ngo-1991, lwalandelwa ziimfazwe kwi-Balkan nase-Afghanistan, kunye ne-2003-2011 yokuhlala e-Iraq. Ibhenela ngokungqongqo nangokungekho mthethweni ukuba โimfazwe ekude,โ ikakhulu kusetyenziswa iidrones. Kwaye iya icaphukisa ngakumbi iChina: emva kokuhlasela kweRussia eUkraine, yanyusa isantya sokungqubana kwayo neBeijing endaweni yokuzama yisuse eMoscow.
Yongeza kuyo yonke le nto uPutin esongela ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya, kwaye ufumana ingqiqo yokuba imeko yehlabathi yangoku ibe yingozi kangakanani. Ugqatso lwezixhobo lwehlabathi lufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngokwenene. IStockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) isandulโ ukuphawula oko inkcitho yomkhosi yehlabathi ikhule ngo-2022 ukuya kuthi ga kwi-2240 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Balekโ umsundulo ngelithi: โNgowama-345, inkcitho yasemkhosini yamazwe akuMbindi nakwiNtshona Yurophu iye yafikelela kwizigidi ezingama-R2022. Baphinde baqaphela ukuba "inkcitho yasemkhosini yase-US ifikelele kwi-1989 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-877, eyayiyipesenti ezingama-2022 yenkcitho yomkhosi yehlabathi iyonke kwaye iphindwe kathathu kunemali echithwe yiTshayina." Khawufane ucinge into enokwenziwa kumlo ochasene nokutshintsha kwemozulu, ubhubhane, kunye nendlala kodwa ngeqhezu lezi zibalo zininzi.
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