27 Temmuz 2012 Cuma günü ABD Ticaret Bakanlığı, 2 yılı Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH) sonuçlarına ilişkin raporunu yayınladı.nd ABD ekonomisi için çeyrek, ekonomi için de 2009'dan 2011'e kadar GSYİH revizyonları.
Geçtiğimiz kış ana akım iktisatçılar, politikacılar ve basın arasındaki geniş fikir birliği, ABD ekonomisinin nihayet iyileşme yolunda olduğu yönündeydi. Ekonomik göstergenin ardı ardına yeşil renkte yanıp sönmesinin, toparlanmanın tüm hızıyla devam ettiğini kanıtladığını ileri sürdüler. 4'in 2011. çeyreğinde GSYH orta derecede sağlıklı %4'lük bir büyüme oranı kaydetti ve medyanın yaygın sektörleri tarafından bu büyümenin devam edeceği tahmin ediliyordu. Ancak 27 Temmuz 2012'de açıklanan GSYH rakamları %4'lük büyümenin aniden yarı yarıya düşerek yalnızca %2'ye düştüğünü gösteriyor. Ve geçen hafta yayınlanan son raporda, 2nd 2012 çeyreğinde GSYİH yalnızca %1.5'e düşmeye devam etti.
Dolayısıyla bu yılın ilk yarısında GSYİH ortalaması %1.7 civarındaydı; bu da 1.7'in tamamı için aynı %2011'lik GSYİH büyümesine denk geliyor. Başka bir deyişle, ABD ekonomisi bu yıl geçen yıla göre daha hızlı büyümüyor. Esasen durgun ve son üç buçuk yıldaki 3 trilyon dolarlık harcama ve vergi kesintilerine rağmen sürdürülebilir bir toparlanma sağlayamıyor. Bu senaryo en iyi ihtimalle devam edecek ve alternatif olarak önümüzdeki aylarda daha da kötüleşebilir; ve bu yıl daha da kötüleşmediyse, 2013'te de kesinlikle öyle.
This rapid slowing of the US economy in 2012 was predicted by this writer early last December 2011, in a general economic forecast for 2012-13 that appeared in the January issue of Z dergisi. 4'ün aksineth çeyrekte %4 GSYİH eğilimi, Aralık 2011'de bu yazar, aksine, "2012'nin ilk çeyreğinde GSYİH büyümesinde önemli bir yavaşlama kaydedileceğini" ve "ABD ekonomisinin 2012'nin ikinci çeyreğinde daha da zayıflayacağını" öngörüyordu.
ABD ekonomisi en azından son iki yıldır esas itibarıyla durgun bir seyir izliyor ve %2.5'in altında bir GSYH büyüme oranıyla dibe vuruyor. Net istihdam yaratılması için ekonominin yüzde 2.5'un üzerinde büyümesi gerekiyor. Ekonominin uzun vadeli %1.7'lik büyüme oranı göz önüne alındığında, son üç aydaki net iş büyümesinin ayda ancak ortalama 80,000 olması şaşırtıcı değil; yani işgücüne yeni girenleri çekmek için gereken 125,000 veya daha fazlasının çok altında. Yani, resmi işsizlik oranının söylediklerine rağmen, 2012'de bu yıl yine iş kaybediyoruz.
Okuyucular, geçtiğimiz 1.7 ayda ortalamanın altındaki %18'lik GSYİH büyümesinin, Aralık 802'da Kongre tarafından kabul edilen 2010 milyar dolarlık vergi indirimine rağmen gerçekleştiğini dikkate almalı; bu kesintilerin neredeyse tamamı işletmeler ve yüksek gelirli hane halkı yatırımcıları için yapılan vergi kesintileriydi. Aslında, küçük işletmelere yönelik son 802 aydaki ilave vergi indirimleri de toplamın içine dahil edilirse bu rakam 18 milyar dolardan fazlaydı. Belki de iş dünyası yanlısı/yatırımcılara yönelik 900 milyar dolarlık vergi kesintileri kabul edildi ve bunların ekonomi ve istihdam yaratma üzerinde minimum ila sıfır etkisi oldu. Bu efsane ve politikacıların ve basının sürekli öne sürdüğü muhafazakar-şirket ideolojisi o kadar ki, 'vergi kesintileri istihdam yaratıyor'. Kasım seçimlerinin hemen ardından gelen yıl sonu anlaşması kapsamında şirketler ve zenginler için daha fazla vergi indirimi her iki taraf tarafından bir kez daha teklif edilirken okuyucular, vergi kesintileri ile istihdam ve ekonomi arasında herhangi bir pozitif ilişkinin bulunmadığını akılda tutmalıdır. Hem Cumhuriyetçiler hem de Demokratlar olmak üzere her iki tarafın da kişisel ve kurumsal gelirlere ilişkin üst düzey vergi oranının mevcut %35'ten en az %28'e (eski Reagan yıllarındaki oran) düşürülmesi konusunda anlaşmaya varmalarını bekliyoruz.
1st Çeyrek GSYH: Geçici Büyüme Faktörleri Ortadan Kalkıyor
Geçen kış ekonomik toparlanmaya dair heyecan tüm hızıyla devam ederken, bu yazar çeşitli yayınlarda 4.th çeyreklik GSYH rakamlarının neredeyse tamamı 2012 yılının ortasında ortadan kalkacak olan tek seferlik gelişmelere dayanıyordu.th çeyreğin %4'lük büyüme oranı işletme stok harcamalarından kaynaklandı ve yıl sonunda önceki 3 yılda yaşanan çöküşü telafi ettird çeyrek. Tüketici harcamalarını yönlendiren otomobil satışlarının da, derin indirimlere ve devam etmeyecek geçici talebe dayandığı göz önüne alındığında, geçici bir etki olduğu kaydedildi. 4. yüzyılda artan iş harcamalarıth quarter was also identified as temporary, as it was driven by year end claiming of tax credits, while manufacturing export gains in late 2011 would soon dissipate, it was predicted, as the global economy and trade slowdown eventually reached the U.S. in 2012.
The halving of GDP growth by the 1st quarter 2012 was due in part, as predicted, to the slowing of auto sales. The previously predicted slowing of business inventory spending occurred, while the 4th quarter’s business investing also disappeared as predicted. In addition to the dissipating temporary factors, new developments added to the 1st quarter’s GDP decline: Consumer spending slowed, as escalating gasoline prices began once again (for a third year in a row) taking their toll on consumers and as auto sales growth began to show signs of weakening. The global slowing of manufacturing also finally began to penetrate US economy by 2012, as US exports grew more slowly than imports and thus depressing GDP still further. Finally, the 30 month long decline in government spending, especially at the state and local government level, continued unabated into 2012.
In late April this writer predicted that the 2% first quarter 2012 GDP would continue to decline still further. In a piece in Truthout.org on May 8, it was predicted the 1st quarter GDP “decline will likely continue further in the months immediately ahead, to possibly as low as 1.5% the second quarter, April-June 2012.” (In a piece in ZNet on May 6 it was predicted for the second quarter 2012 that “The growth rate could slow to possibly as low as 1.5%”).
2nd Quarter GDP’s Continuing Downtrend
The same factors that have been driving the 4% GDP to 2% in the January-March 2012 period have driven it lower still, to the recent 1.5%.
In the most recent 2nd quarter 2012, both consumer and business spending showed even further weakening—while government spending continued to contract for the 33rd consecutive month and the contribution to GDP by exports fell further as well.
Consumer spending on goods declined from its 5.4% rate in the 4th quarter to only 0.7% this past quarter. Durable goods spending in particular fell off a cliff last quarter, as auto sales not only slowed dramatically, as in the 1st quarter, but now in the 2nd actually turned negative. But perhaps the most dramatic indicator is the fall off in retail sales in general. Retail sales April-June fell in each of the three months. That is the first time for a three consecutive month decline since the deep collapse of 2008! Even services consumption recorded its slowest and lowest growth in two years!
What consumer spending did occur in the 2nd quarter was driven by sharply rising credit card debt as well as household auto and education debt, credit cards growing by 11.2% and auto-student loans by 8%. In other words, to the extent consumer spending is occurring at all it is not due to rising household real disposable income—which is actually falling—but due to households taking on more debt. So much for the mainstream argument that consumer spending is slowing because households are working off debt (i.e. so-called deleveraging). That may be true for the wealthiest 10% households with income growth from stocks and bonds, but not for the bottom 90%, i.e. the more than 100 million rest of us. But consumer spending increasingly dependent on credit cards and other borrowing portends poorly for further spending down the road. It is not sustainable and will result in yet a further slowing of consumer spending and consequently economic growth.
Consumer spending is not the only major trouble spot in the 2nd quarter that promises to continue into the 3rd and beyond. Business spending also showed new signs of trouble in new places as well as the old last quarter. Business spending on plant expansion, which shows up as business ‘structures’ spending, collapsed last quarter from prior double digit levels in the 4th quarte—from 33.9% to only 0.9% in the last three months. That plummeting structures spending will eventually translate into a slowing of new job creation going forward as well. Businesses that don’t expand don’t add jobs. Slowing business spending was also evident in new orders placed for manufactured goods that turned negative for each of the past three. Watch next for the other business spending sector, on equipment and software, soon to flattened out in the future as well.
A third sector of the economy that contributed to growth in 2011, but has also reversed now as well, is exports. New orders for US exports have declined the past two months in a row, the first back to back fall since 2009. That confirms that any contribution of exports and manufacturing to GDP is now clearly over. It never really contributed that much in the first place, despite all the Obama administration hype in 2010-11 that manufacturing and more free trade would ‘lead the way’ to sustained US economic recovery. It was all hype to reward multinational technology and other companies—big contributors to Democratic election coffers—while diverting attention away from the obvious failures to generate sustained recovery after the three Obama ‘recovery programs’ introduced in 2009, 2010, and 2011.
Not least there’s the continued poor performance of the government sector in the 2nd quarter. It has continued to decline every quarter since the 3rd quarter of 2009, or 33 consecutive months now. That spending decline at the state and local government level has been the case despite more than $300 billion in federal stimulus subsidies to the states since June 2009 and hundreds of billions more in unemployment insurance payments by the federal government to the states. Why state-local government spending has declined every quarter since mid-2009 despite the massive subsidies is an anomaly yet to be explained. Like corporations hoarding their tax cuts, and banks hoarding their bailouts, both refusing to use the money to lend and create jobs—perhaps the states and local governments also hoarded their subsidies. Perhaps that’s why the Obama administration quickly shifted its promise that its stimulus package would create jobs, to a message that it would, if not create, at least ‘save jobs’.
In answer to the obvious further deteriorating in the 2nd quarter in both consumer, business, and government spending, the press and media in recent weeks have tried to grab at straws and hype a ‘recovery underway in the housing sector’. But this line has been based on the slimmest of evidence: the indicator that home builders’ new construction has risen. But the media hype in recent weeks regarding housing has conveniently ignored various other indicators recently showing continued housing sector stagnation: For example, new home sales declined by 8.4% in June, the largest fall since early 2011. Mortgage loan applications and new building permits also fell, while median home prices recorded a –3.2% decline compared to a year earlier. That amounts to nothing near a housing recovery. To the extent home building has risen, it has been largely limited to multi-family units—i.e. to apartment building. That’s not surprising, given the 12 million plus homeowners who have been foreclosed since the recession began and need some place to live. But housing sector indicators as a whole still show that sector languishing well below half of what it was pre-2007 and with little indication of any kind of sustained growth or recovery. As in the case of net job creation, without a housing recovery leading the way there is no sustained general US economic recovery.
In all the 11 prior recessions since 1947 in the U.S., state and local government spending increases, net job creation in the private sector equivalent to 350,000 jobs per month for six consecutive months, and housing sector recovery have all been necessary to ‘lead the way’ out of recession. But for the past four years none of the above has been the case. There have been no effective jobs program, housing-foreclosures solution program, or state-local government spending program. That tripartite failure is at the heart of the failed economic recovery of the Obama first term.
Jack Rasmus Nisan 2012 tarihli kitabın yazarıdır. “Obama'nın Ekonomisi: Azınlığın İyileşmesi”, published by Pluto Press and Palgrave-Macmillan. His other recent articles, radio and tv interviews, are available on his website, www.kyklosprodüksiyonlar.com, and on his blog, jackrasmus.com.
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