Mazuva mashoma mushure mekunge mauto eSyria atora Qusayr, mukutanga kwaChikumi, mutori wenhau ane simba weSaudi Jamal Khashoggi akarondedzera chiono chake chisingafadzi chenyika yechiMuslim inotongwa ne "Persia neShia": "Nhungamiro yeChimurenga ... Ayatollah Khamenei achazadzisa chiroto chake che achipa mharidzo papurupiti yeUmayyad Mosque [muDhamasiko] kuti azivise kuti [awana] kubatana kwechiIslam, kwaakavimbisa kwenguva refu. Achaburuka kubva papurupiti nokuzvikudza kukuru kuti apukute musoro wemwana murombo kuratidza ‘kushivirira kwevane simba’ [kuna Sunni]. Anobva amira padivi pe… vadzidzi veSyria vechiSunni, nengowani dzavo chena, sezvo pagara paine vanhu vakaita samufti Ahmad Hassun vakagadzirira kushandira. Acha[simudza maoko avo] kumusoro, ukuwo makamera achirekodha nguva iyi yenhoroondo” (1).
Mukutaura zuva rimwe chetero, Hassan Nasrallah, munyori mukuru weHizbullah, akapembedza kutumira varwi kuSyria vachiziva kuti kunyangwe "chikamu chikuru chevaSyria [chinotsigira] hutongi", vazhinji vangangove vachipokana nazvo. Aifunga kuti kunetsana kwemukati uku kwaive kwechipiri, sezvo “Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, nedunhu rose zvakanangwa ne[a] US-Israel-Takfiri scheme” (2) izvo zvinofanirwa kurambwa chero zvodii, izvo zvaireva kumhanyira kubatsira hurumende yeAssad.
Sekunyora kwakaita mukuru weUS mumushumo weInternational Crisis Group (3), "hondo yeSyria ine mhedzisiro yedunhu iri kuita hondo yedunhu ine chinangwa cheSyria." Hondo itsva inotonhora iri kupatsanura dunhu, sepakutanga, iyo yakaisa Nasser's Egypt, yakabatana neUSSR, kurwisa Saudi Arabia neUS muma1950 uye 60s. Asi nguva dzachinja. Hurudzi hweArabu hwadzikira, zvinzvimbo zvemasekete zviri kuoma, uye patova nekupokana nezveramangwana renyika nemiganhu yakagadzirwa mushure mehondo yenyika yekutanga.
Syria, ine makumi ezviuru zvevakafa, mamirioni evapoteri, uye zvakakanganisika zvakanyanya maindasitiri maindasitiri uye nhoroondo yenhaka, ndiye akabatwa zvakanyanya. Chiroto chine tariro chechirimo cha2011 chashanduka kuita chinotyisa. Sei vaSiria vatadza kuita muDhamasiko zvakaitwa nevaEgipita muCairo?
MaEgypt vakakwanisa kupidigura Mubarak zviri nyore. Iwo epamusoro uye makirasi emagariro ane zvisungo kuboka raive nemasimba haana kumbobvira anzwa kuti ropafadzo dzavo dzaityisidzirwa, ndoda kuchengeteka kwavo mumuviri. Pashure pechimurenga, vanamuzvinabhizimisi, vakuru vakuru vemauto nevatungamiriri vebasa rehungwaru vakachinja mativi zvakadzikama. Vashoma chete ndivo vakaendeswa kumatare, zvishoma nezvishoma uye nekuzengurira kukuru. Uye kuenda kwaMubarak hakuna kukanganisa dunhu rezvematongerwo enyika. IUS neSaudi Arabia vakakwanisa kujairana neshanduko dzavanga vasingade asi dzisingatyisidzire zvido zvavo, chero bedzi vaikwanisa kufambisa shanduko idzodzo.
Tariro dzekuchinja dzakapera
Zvakasiyana muSyria. Kubva pakatanga kurwisana, kushandiswa kwesimba kusingarambidzwi nemasevhisi ehungwaru kwakawana hurumende mwedzi inokosha yekuronga. Hurumende yakakurudzira mauto evanopikisa, kuwedzera kwekurwisana, uye kunyange kuita mapoka, kuitira kutyisa mapoka makuru evanhu; vashoma, mabhunu uye mapoka epakati emumaguta akanga atotya nemutauro wakanyanyisa wemamwe mapoka anopikisa uye kuwanda kwevarwi vekune dzimwe nyika vakashumwa nehurumende.
Sezvo hutsinye hwakaramba huchienderera mberi, tarisiro yekuchinja pasina kudana kwekutsiva yakapera, uye zvikamu zvakakura zvenzanga zvakaungana kuhurumende, vachityira kuchengetedzwa kwavo muchiitiko chekukunda kweIslam. Nyika dzekuMadokero dzanga dzichidaidza maIslamist bogeymen kwemakore, izvo zvakaita kuti tarisiro iyi iwedzere kutyisa, uye yakapa humbowo kuhutongi hweAssad kuFrance: "Sei uri kubatsira mapoka mamwechete muSyria auri kurwa muMali?"
Hurumende yakashandisawo chinzvimbo cheSyria senzira yekutsvaga rutsigiro kubva kuvadyidzani vayo, Iran neRussia, izvo zvashamisa pasirese nekupindira mugakava iri nekutsunga kukuru kupfuura nyika dzeArab kana kumadokero.
Siria ndiyo yega mubatsiri weArab uyo Iran yakakwanisa kuvimba nayo kubva pakatanga chimurenga cha1979. Siria yakamira nayo munguva dzakaoma, kunyanya panguva yekurwisa kweIraq Iran muna 1980, apo nyika dzose dzeGulf dzakatsigira Saddam Hussein. Tichifunga nezvekuzviparadzanisa kweIran mumakore mashoma apfuura, zvirango zvakaomarara zvakatemerwa neUS neEU, uye njodzi inoenderera mberi yekupindira kwemauto neIsrael uye/kana US, kupindira kweIran muSyria, kunyangwe zvisiri zvehunhu, inzira ine musoro. sarudzo, uye isingaite kuti idzoserwe nemutungamiri wayo mutsva, Hassan Rohani. Iran yaita zvese zvainogona kununura shamwari yayo, kubva pakupa chikwereti kubhangi repakati reSyria kusvika pakupa mafuta nemauto chipangamazano.
Daidzira jihad
Kubatanidzwa kweIran kwakatungamira - nemvumo yeRussia - kukurudzira Hizbullah kuti ibatane muSyria. Hizbullah inogona kutaura kuti zviuru zvevarwi vechiIslam, kubva kuRebhanoni nedzimwe nyika dzeArabhu, vatovepo, asi kupindira kwakananga kunogona kungowedzera kusawirirana pakati peSunni neShia (kurwisana kwakawedzera muRebhanoni) uye kwakasimbisa vaparidzi veSunni.
Musangano muCairo muna 13 Chikumi wakaitirwa mukutsigira “hama dzedu dzeSyria” wakadaidzira jihad. Mohammed Morsi akatora chikamu uye, kunyangwe anga akangwarira paSyria kusvika panguva iyoyo, akazivisa kuti Egypt yave kuputsa hukama hwekudyidzana nehurumende yeAssad. Anti-Shia rhetoric, kunyange kubva kumasheikh ane mwero, yakawedzera ruzha. Hassan al-Shafii, mumiriri weAl-Azhar, sangano guru reSunni Islam riri muCairo, akabvunza kuti: “Chii chinorehwa nokupindira kweHizbullah [uye kuteura] ropa risina mhosva muQusayr? Ihondo yekurwisa maSunni, chitendero cheShia” (4).
Kubatanidzwa kweRussia hakusi kungofungidzira kwaVladimir Putin, asi kusimbisazve kukosha kwayo kwenyika yose. Mumwe mumiriri weEgypt akati: “Nyika dzekuMadokero dziri kubhadhara mutengo wekuedza kwadzo kuzvidza Russia kubva pakupera kweUSSR. Zvisinei nekufarira kwaBoris Yeltsin, Nato yakawedzera kusvika kumiganhu yeRussia. " Kwemakore maviri, "Madokero anga achikurudzira kuRussia kuti ingotora mutsara wekuMadokero [paSyria]. Iyoyo yakanga isiri pfungwa yechokwadi. "
Kungwarira kubva Libya
Nzira iyo sarudzo yeUN Security Council paLibya yakakanganiswa kuti iite zviri pamutemo kupindira kwemauto yakaitawo kuti Russia ichenjere, nedzimwe nyika zvakare: Brazil, China, India neSouth Africa dzakaratidza kukahadzika pamusoro pezvisarudzo pamusoro peSyria zvakaunzwa kuUN neWest. Kudonha kwehutongi hweAssad kwaizove kusingagamuchirwe kuRussia: kungave kukunda kwevaIslam uye kunogona kumutsa maMuslim mukati meFederation, iyo iyo Russia inoti propaganda yeWahabist iri kuparadzirwa.
Kuenzaniswa nekutsunga kweRussia neIran, rutsigiro rwekunze rwekupokana kweSyria rwakakamurwa, rusingaite uye rusina kugona, risiri guru reSaudi-Qatari-American-Israeli-Salafist kurangana. Nyika imwe neimwe yanga ichiita zvinhu zvayo uye kubatsira vatengi vayo, ichipa rubatsiro kune vamwe uye ichiramba kune vamwe. Izvo zvisina musoro zvakasvika pakakwirira muna Kubvumbi apo Qatar yakabhadhara mari yekumisikidzwa kwaGhassan Hitto, chizvarwa cheUS, semutungamiriri wehurumende yeSyria "yenguva". Kupindira kubva kune vakapfuma vemabhizimisi veGulf vasiri pasi pemhando ipi zvayo yekutonga kunowedzera nyonganiso (5).
Zvakaoma kuona zviri kuitika chaizvo nemapoka akawanda akasiyana-siyana uye mauto ehondo (katibas), ose akanyorwa nekunyengera kuti “maIslamist”, izwi rinoita kuti zvikwanisike kufuratira misiyano yavo yehurongwa nezvematongerwo enyika (6) Jabhat al-Nusra, uyo anozviti ibazi reAl-Qaida, anonetsa Madokero sezvaanoita Saudi Arabia, iyo yakarwa hondo kusvika pakufa neAl-Qaida pamba pakati pa2003 na2005. Kutya uku kunonzwawo. mukati memasangano eSalafist: Nader Bakkar, mutauriri wezvenhau weEgypt bato guru reSalafist Al-Nour, anoda kucheka pasi kubva pasi petsoka dzeAl-Qaida: "Chatiri kukumbira inzvimbo isina nhunzi. Kuitira kuti mabhunu akunde hondo ivo pachavo. Tirikukurudzira vanhu vari muIjipiti kuti varege kuenda kuSiria; kukunda kunofanira kuitwa navaSiria voga.”
Kuvhiringidzika uku kwakakurudzirwa nekusagadzikana kweUS, iyo kunyangwe ichida kuona hutongi hweSyria ichidonha, inozeza kutanga imwe nzira yekuMiddle East mushure mekutadza kwayo muIraq neAfghanistan. Shanduko yemaonero eWashington inoratidzwa naRichard Haass. Semumwe wepfungwa dziri kumashure kweRepublican Party mutemo wekunze akashanda neMutungamiri George W Bush. Iye zvino ari mukuru weKanzuru ine simba pamusoro pehukama hwekunze muNew York, achangobva kuburitsa bhuku rinonzi Foreign Policy Inotangira Kumba: Nyaya Yekuisa Imba yeAmerica muKurongeka, izvo zvinopikisa kuti matambudziko emukati, kubva pakuipa kwehurongwa hwekufambisa kusvika pakushaikwa kwevashandi vane hunyanzvi, zviri kutadzisa US kushandisa hutungamiriri hwepasi rose.
Mutungamiri Barack Obama vafunga kupa zvombo kuvapanduki veSyria. Zvikonzero ndezvekushandisa kwemauto eSyria gasi resarin - nyaya ine gakava pasina kubvunza kwakazvimirira iko zvino (7) - iyo, maererano neUS, yakauraya vangangosvika 140 ve90,000 vakabatwa mumhirizhonga kusvika parizvino. Asi chisarudzo chinofanira kududzirwa sei?
Siria yave nhandare yehondo yedunhu nepasirese, uye hapana musasa uchabvuma kukundwa kwemurwi wayo. Mushure mekubudirira kwemauto eSyria kuQusayr, US inoda kudzivirira hutongi kuti huve nekukunda kwakazara, kunyangwe kukunda kwakadai kusingaite sezvo ruzhinji rwevanhu rwave rwakanyanya uye, pasina chimwe chekurasikirwa, inoramba hutongi hwakasimba. Asi zvishuwo zveUS zvingangove zvisingaite kupindira kwakakura, nzvimbo dzisina kubhururuka kana kuzvipira kwemauto epasi. Kana chiyero chemauto chikadzivirirwa, kugadzikana kunoenderera mberi, sekufa nekuparadza, uye njodzi yekuti kunetsana kuchapararira mudunhu rese.
Iraq, Jorodhani neRebhanoni dzakabatwa mukurwisana; Varwi veIraqi neLebanon, Sunni neShia, vanozviwana vari kudivi rinopikisa muSyria. The international insurgency highway (8) iri kuunza varwi, zvombo nemazano muSyria kubva kure kuAfghanistan neSahel. Chero bedzi varatidziri vekunze vachiramba vachiona kukakavara semutambo we zero-sum, vanhu veSyria vachatambura uye dunhu rose riri munjodzi yekudhonzerwa mukati.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta