Chii chiri kuitika muIraq?
Zviitiko zvinokatyamadza mumwedzi mishoma yapfuura, kusainwa kwechibvumirano cheUS-Iraqi "Status of Forces" - icho chakange chakanyorwa sezuva rekubviswa kweUS - uye sarudzo dzepurovhinzi yeIraq - dzakange dzakarongwa sedanho guru rekuenderera mberi. democracy uye kugadzikana - vakaita kuti mifananidzo yavo inopenya yakashatiswa nekukurumidza nekugunun'una kunotyisa mumikoto yesimba pamusoro pekuenderera mberi kwekutyisidzira runyararo, kugadzikana uye kubviswa kweUS. Nhepfenyuro dzemakambani dzinoita kunge dzakatonyanya kujeka kupfuura kare - kuderedza kuburitswa uye kupa vatori venhau kuIraq avo vanowanzoita sevanosanganisa kushaikwa kwemamiriro ekunze nekushaikwa kwehungwaru hwezvematongerwo enyika (nezvishoma zvinosarudzika - zvisingaenzaniswi naAnthony Shadid we. the Washington Post akadzokera kuIraq mushure mekuzorora kwenguva refu). Pakave zvakadaro, kwave nemwaranzi yakajairwa yechiedza kubva kunze kweiyo midhiya yekumisikidza - munguva shoma yapfuura ndawana nzwisiso chaiyo kubva (yakare yakavimbika) Juan Cole, Dahr Jamail (kumashure kuBaghdad nemishumo yepasi-pasi), Reidar Visser (uyo anoita seanoziva zvese zvinoitika kumaodzanyemba-kwe-Baghdad Shia matunhu), uye, izvozvi, Robert Dreyfuss 'ane ruzivo uye anonzwisisa. nyika nyaya dzesarudzo dzichangopfuura.
Sarudzo inyaya yakakodzera kuti iongororwe zvakare. Kufanana nezvimwe zvakawanda, tinofanira kumirira kuti tizive kukosha kwazvo; zvinorehwa zvichazoitika kutanga kuoneka apo hurumende dzematunhu dzinoumbwa uye, gare gare zvikuru, apo dzinotanga kuita chiito. Asi - semazuva ese - tinoziva kuti kutora kwevezvenhau kwakashata zvakanyanya. Kuti titarise zvakanaka pane zvatinoziva kusvika parizvino, verenga Dreyfuss chinyorwa. Pakati pezvimwe nyaya uye chokwadi, anotaura zvinhu zviviri zvinokosha zvakakodzera kuongororwa.
Chekutanga, sarudzo hadzina kureva kuti maonero eruzhinji rweIraq atanga kupfava pakuvapo kweUS. Vezvenhau vakakurudzira zvakasimba kuti mapato akakunda aive pro-America, kubva kuMutungamiriri weNyika, Maliki's Da'wa Party kusvika kune matsva anotungamirwa nevaimbove Prime Minister anotsigirwa neUS Ayad Allawi naIbrahim Al-Jaafari kune vatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika veAwakening Movement. , vane nhengo dzanga dziri mubhadharo reU.S. kwemakore maviri apfuura. Asi vese ava "vabatsiri" vakamhanya pamapuratifomu anopesana neAmerica. Maliki akavaka danidziro yake yose pamusoro pekutsvaga chikwereti chekumanikidza US kubvumirana - mukutaurirana chibvumirano cheSOFA - kubvisa zvachose mauto ose kubva mumaguta eIraqi munaJune uno, uye kubva munyika yose muna December 2011. Allawi naJaafari - avo vakawana budiriro huru mushure memakore. yekusajeka - vese vanga vachipokana zvisingaite nebasa iri sezvo ivo vaive mumwe nemumwe, zvakare, zvisina tsarukano vakadonhedzwa nevakuru veUS. Vatungamiri veKumuka havasati vambomira kutaura kupesana kwavo kune kuvepo kweUS kunyangwe vachitora mari yayo - vachiti sarudzo dzisati dzaitwa, panguva uye mushure mesarudzo kuti US yakanga isisina bhizinesi ipapo sezvo Bato reKumuka rakanga rabvisa magandanga. chikonzero chekuvapo kwemauto eU.S. Uye pamwe chinonyanya kutaura kuderera kunoshamisa kweISCI, iro rega rasara rinoonekwa rezvematongerwo enyika rinotsigira (kunyangwe pasina ruzhinji rwevanhu) kuenderera mberi kwekugara kweAmerica. Maererano naVisser, ISCI "yakaparadzwa munyika yose."
Chechipiri, uye chinonyanya kukosha, uku kwaisave kukunda kunotyisa kwehurumende yeMaliki (uye nekureva kune vanoitsigira vekuAmerica) izvo vezvenhau veUS nevazhinji vaongorori vakazvimiririra vakagumisa, kunyangwe mubatanidzwa wake waive wakakunda musarudzo. Sekutaura kunoita Dreyfuss, bato rezvematongerwo enyika raMaliki, Da'wa, iro risati rave nehuvepo hwakasimba kunze kweGreen Zone, parizvino haripo. Uyu ndiwo mugumisiro wekuparadzana kukuru kwakakonzera kupesana kwe "Da'wa" (kubva pazita rezita) iyo yakamhanya yega musarudzo dzichangopfuura, ukuwo bato raMaliki risina basa chairo kunze kwemasangano ehurumende aanoedza kuraira. Kusiyana neizvi, vakwikwidzi vake vaviri vakuru veShia, ISCI - shamwari yake yekare iyo yave mhandu huru uye yakakundwa zvakanyanya musarudzo - uye maSadrists - vachiri mauto akakosha anopokana neAmerica pakati pevaShia avo vakangobata simba reparamende. sarudzo - ose ane huvepo hwesangano munzvimbo zhinji dzeShia. MaSadrist mhandu akasimba nekuti vane hombe uye yakanyatso kurongeka kutevera pakati pevagariwo zvavo, zvichivagonesa kukwidza matambudziko makuru euswa (ane chisimba kana asiri echisimba) munzvimbo zhinji munzvimbo dzeShia.
Saka sei vezvenhau vekuAmerica vachiti Maliki "akakunda" musarudzo? Mhinduro ndeyokuti iye (semunhu anodzora hurumende yepakati) akaita mibatanidzwa nemapoka ezvematongerwo enyika emunharaunda mumatunhu akasiyana-siyana anotongwa neShia (Baghdad uye ayo ari kumaodzanyemba ane makuru makuru eShia). Aya mapoka emunharaunda anowanzo tungamirwa nevatungamiriri vezvitendero nevemadzinza - zvino vakasarudzwa nevezvenhau vemakambani sechikamu chemubatanidzwa waMaliki uye vachimhanya pasi pemureza wake - vaimbove vadzivisi vake, vachitungamira (vane chisimba pamwe nevasina mhirizhonga) mauto emuno aida zvakasiyana-siyana zvezviwanikwa uye/kana zvibvumirano kubva kuhurumende yepakati. Munguva yemushandirapamwe vakaita hukama hwehunyanzvi naMaliki vachivimbisa kutendeseka kwaari mukutsinhana nezvivimbiso zvekuti kukunda kwaizoita kuti hurumende yepakati ipedze zvaidiwa kare. Aya mapoka emunharaunda haasi, zvisinei, mubatanidzwa chaiwo nekuti haana hukama hunogara kune bato raMaliki kana hurumende, uye haana kubatana - muzviitiko zvakawanda vanokwikwidza.
Mumapurovhinzi mazhinji eShia vanodyidzana naMaliki veko vakahwina kuwanda (hapana akakunda ruzhinji), uye vachatoumba hurumende yemuno. Asi isu hatisati taziva kana vacharamba vakavimbika kuna Maliki, kunyangwe munguva pfupi, tichifunga kuti ivo vakakunda musarudzo pasina rubatsiro rwake uye vane zvishoma zvinokurudzira kutevera hutungamiriri hwake kunze kwekunge atanga kuendesa zviwanikwa zvaakavimbisa.
Kutaura zvazviri, zvisinei, Maliki haakwanisi kuita zvaakavimbisa. Mumutemo anofanira kunge achikwanisa kuendesa mhando nhatu huru dzezviwanikwa: zvirongwa zvemagariro uye zvivakwa zvinotungamirwa nehurumende yepakati; rubatsiro rwechiuto uye kudzivirira kune vanokwikwidzana nechisimba, uye mari yezvirongwa zvakatangwa munharaunda. Nekuda kwezvirongwa zvekuvaka patsva, zvehupfumi, kana zvivakwa, hurumende yepakati haina midziyo yekutonga nekudaro haikwanise kuendesa chero masevhisi ehurumende anoshanda semubairo wezvematongerwo enyika mumibatanidzwa yakadai. Muchokwadi, hurumende haina kana kuvepo kwekufananidzira (kunyanya kuvepo kunoshanda) kunze kwe "Green Zone." Iyo haina kugona kuendesa masevhisi muBaghdad, ndoda nyika yese. Kuora mwoyo kwenyika kwakagadzirwa nekuparara kwehondo uye kuparara kwakaitwa nemabasa eUS kuputsa hupfumi hweIraqi hwakatarisana nenyika hakusati kwatanga kugadziriswa. Mhando yezvivakwa zvakarongeka zvine manejimendi anoshanda uye tekinoroji haisati yatanga, uye vatungamiriri venzvimbo vanonyatsoziva kuti Maliki ari - zvakanyanya - makore apfuura kubva pakutanga kuvakazve zvivakwa zvenyika.
Pamberi pemauto, munhu angafunga, kubva pakuverenga nhepfenyuro yemakambani iyo hurumende yeIraq yakazopedzisira yave nayo - mushure mekudyara kwemakumi emabhiriyoni emadhora eUS uye nemabasa makuru emakumi ezviuru emauto eUS ekudzidzisa - mauto anoshanda anokwanisa kudzivirira. hurumende dzemunharaunda kubva kune vadzivisi vane chisimba. Asi kunyangwe paine akati wandei anoshanda eIraqi mauto, Maliki haakwanise kuzvishandisa kune zvake (kana vavakidzani vake zvinangwa) pasina mvumo uye kutora chikamu kweuto reUS. Zvichitaurwa zviri nyore, mauto eIraqi haagone kushanda ari ega, anogona kungoshanda ari mukonsati (uye achirairwa) neuto reUS. Kurwiswa kwakakundikana muna 2008 muBasra, Maliki paakava neushingi hwekuraira mauto ake kupinda muguta pasina mubatsiri aidiwa wemauto eUS, mauto ake akakundwa zvakazara nemauto eko uye akange ave kuda kukundwa zvinonyadzisa pavakanunurwa nemauto. iyo U.S. uye zvematongerwo enyika neIran.
Saka zvehunyanzvi, Maliki ane uto. Asi chaizvoizvo haakwanisi kuita mauto ega, sezvo mauto ake asina kuvimbika uye haana nhumbi dzokurwa nadzo, haana simba remhepo, uye asina nzira yokutakura nayo mauto ake nezvinhu. Zvese izvi zvakakosha zvechiuto zvinopihwa neUS Misheni dzese saka dzinofanirwa kusanganisira kupindirwa kukuru kwemauto ekutsigira eUS uye nekupinzwa uku kunouya US "mazano" anoraira mauto eIraqi, uye US "back-up" mauto akagadzirira. kununura mauto eIraqi achangopinda mudambudziko, izvo zvanga zvisingadzivisiki. Sezvo vatsigiri vezvematongerwo enyika veMaliki vanovenga vanhu vekuAmerica uye vanonyanya kupesana nevese kuvepo kwemauto eUS, vanopokana nemoyo wese rubatsiro rwemauto kubva kuhurumende yepakati, kunyangwe ivo vari mukurwisana nechisimba nevadzivisi veko.
Izvi zvinosiya chinhu chimwe chete chinodiwa nevanodyidzana naMaliki: mari - mabhiriyoni emadhora emafuta. Yakanga iri chivimbiso chechishandiso ichi chakavakurudzira kuti vapinde mumubatanidzwa wesarudzo waMaliki, uye zvinogoneka chete kutsigirwa kana Maliki akapa mari yakawanda kune vamwe vake vatsva venzvimbo.
Asi mikana yekupinzwa kwemari iyi muhurumende dzeProvince inoratidzika kunge idiki. Gore rapfuura, apo hurumende yepakati yaive - kutaura zvehunyanzvi - ichigeza nepetro-madhora uye ichiunganidza madhora mabhiriyoni makumi manomwe emadhora, yakapa chero zviwanikwa kuhurumende dzemuno. Zvakare Basra muenzaniso wakakwana. Kunyangwe mushure mekunge hurumende yenzvimbo yaiswa mumaoko evadyidzani vaMaliki's Basrawi (kuburikidza nekuedza kwemauto eUS uye nekushandiswa kweIranian zvematongerwo enyika kune vapanduki), dunhu rakaramba richiziya nenzara, uye rakanyunyuta - seimwe. mapurovhinzi ane - kuti akanga achitorerwa chikamu chawo chakanaka chepeturu yenyika. Hurumende yeBasra yakasvika pakutsiva nekuramba kugovera chizvarwa chavo chemagetsi neBaghdad.
Kukundikana uku kwakaguma nekubatanidzwa kwezvipingamupinyi pakuyerera kwepetrodollar. Chekutanga, zviremera zvinobata basa reUS uye masangano anodyidzana anochengetedza simba rekuvhota pamusoro pemashandisirwo makuru epetro-dollar akagadzwa zviri pamutemo kuvimbisa kubhadharwa kwechikwereti chenguva yeSaddam uye kusimbisa IMF isina gwara kune "mutoro". Simba iri rinoshandiswa kurambidza chero mapurojekiti makuru anoitiswa nemasangano ehurumende pachinzvimbo chemakambani akazvimirira epasi rose. Hurumende dzematunhu nokudaro dzinoona kuti zvavanoda kuti hurumende iwane mari yezvirongwa zvemumigwagwa, zvehupfumi, zvemagetsi, zvekutengesa, kana zvemvura izvo zvisina kupihwa makondirakiti emakondirakiti makuru akazvimirira kazhinji havakodzere kuwana mari.
Kupfuura kuvharwa kwemitemo iyi, hurumende dzemuno dzakasanganawo netsika huru yehuwori iyo hurumende yeMaliki yakagara nhaka kubva kuhutongi hwaSaddam Hussein uye hutongi hweUS, midziyo miviri yekutonga iyo yakange yaita huwori hwekupamba sechinhu chikuru chekushandisa kukuru kwese, nemabhiriyoni emadhora. kuburitswa kunze kwenyika panguva dzese mukutenderera kwepetrodollar. Munguva yepamusoro yeUS yakananga kutonga kwemari yehurumende (ichiwedzera kubva pakudonha kweSaddam kusvika zvakanaka muna 2007), huwandu hwekuvaka patsva kana mari yekusimudzira hupfumi inosvika kuhurumende dzenzvimbo yaive isingaite, sezvo veUS vemauto nevezvematongerwo enyika vakaendesa mari ku (kunyanya. U.S.) makambani emarudzi akawanda, akashandisa makuru makuru eMiddle East-based subcontractors, avowo vakagovana zvavanotora nevakuru veIraqi. Mari yaisvika munzvimbo chaidzo yaiwanzova diki diki yezvakagoverwa pakutanga, uye imwe yacho yakabviswa nemhomho yemakambani nevakuru vakuru "vachibvisa" sezvo mari yaimhanya yapfuura. Sezvo chiremera pamusoro pezvirongwa izvi zvakatama kubva kumauto nevakuru vakuru vehurumende yeUS kuenda kuhutungamiriri hwezvematongerwo enyika hwehurumende yeMaliki, hurongwa hwacho hwakaramba hwakamira, nevabatsiri chete ndivo vaichinja. Chero mapurojekiti akaziviswa pasi pehutongi hwaMaliki aive nedambudziko rakafanana nerekare remapurojekiti egirini ekuUS - mari haina kumbosvika padanho repasi - yakatoparara sezvo mazinga akasiyana ehutongi akagovana zvakapambwa nemakambani. shamwari. Kunyangwe apo zvirongwa zvemuno zvekuwedzera simba remagetsi, kugadziridzwa kwemasuweji, kuvhurwazve kwemaindasitiri nemabhizimusi ekutengesa, kumutsidzirwa kwehurongwa hwekurapa uye hwechikoro, uye kugadziriswa kwedzimba dzakakuvadzwa zvakanyanya munzvimbo dzehondo "kwakapihwa mari" ne hurumende, muuyo chaiwo wakanga uri wokuti kazhinji kazhinji kwakanga kusina chiratidzo chezvirongwa kunyange kutanga, uye izvo zvakatanga hazvina kutongosvika pakupedzwa. Chirevo chehurumende yeIraqi chepamutemo chakaratidza kuti muna 2007, isingasviki 10% yemari yakagoverwa kuvaka patsva yenyika uye yenzvimbo yakashandiswa pachirongwa chakasarudzwa. MuFalluja iyo US basa-yakavimbiswa kugadziriswa kwesuweji uye mvura yekuchenesa system inoramba isina kukwana makore mashanu mushure mehondo, nehurumende yeIraq yave kuti kana yapera, ichashanda chikamu chimwe muzvitatu cheguta.
Zvakaoma kufungidzira kuti matambudziko aya anozogadziriswa chero nguva munguva pfupi iri kutevera, uye kwete US isati yatora ruoko rwayo rwekutonga uye rwechiuto kubva mumuchina wehurumende. Nechekare, kunyangwe hurumende dzematunhu dzisati dzaumbwa, vatungamiriri venzvimbo - nhengo dzemubatanidzwa usina kusimba waMaliki dziri kuda mafashama ezviwanikwa. Nekuda kwekuderera kwakanyanya kwemari yepetroleum, hurumende yeIraq iri kunetsekana kubhadhara mari dzayo, uye iri kuzivisa pachena kusakwanisa kwayo kupa mari muzvirongwa zvekuvaka patsva. kuti hurumende dzemunharaunda dziri kutoda. MuDiwaniya, dunhu rakakunda mubatanidzwa weMaliki kumwe kukunda kwayo kunoshamisa, mutungamiriri wake womunzvimbomo akanga achitonyunyuta pamusoro pokukundikana kuri kuuya kwehurumende yenyika kubhadhara zvipikirwa zvake zve "kugadziridzwa kwemadiridziro, dzimba itsva uye mabasa ehurumende kune vechidiki vasingashandi."
Kana Maliki nevamwe vake (US neIraqi) muhurumende yenyika vakatadza kuunza mari yakavimbiswa, hurumende dzenzvimbo hadzizove nechikonzero chekunyarara kuramba vakavimbika kuna Maliki. Vanenge vachatodzoka, vodzokera zvakare mukuvimba nezviwanikwa zvavo. Avo vane matsime emafuta kana mapaipi vanobvisa "mugove wavo" wepetroleum kuti vabatsirike uye kuti vashandise munharaunda nemari, vachivandudza kupesana kwemakore gumi pakati pehurumende dzepakati nedzenzvimbo. Avo vane zvidyarwa zvemagetsi, seBasra isati yasarudzwa, vacharamba kugovera kugadzirwa nenyika yese, kunze kwe "mubhadharo webasa", nekudaro vachigadzira imwe seti yekupokana pakati pematunhu uye pakati pematunhu nematunhu. hurumende huru. Iwo mapurovhinzi anogara mashoma anoshanda maindasitiri nevemabhizimusi ekutengesa anovateresa kuti awane mari yemabasa epanzvimbo (pachezvake neehurumende), uye anoramba kugovera mihoro iyi neimwe Baghdad. Kana Maliki (uye basa reU.S.) vachida kuramba izvi "zvisiri pamutemo" zviito, ivo vachave nesarudzo shoma kunze kwerudzi rwekupindira kwemauto muBasra neSadr Guta rakaratidza 2008. Kunyangwe kutyisidzira kwekupindira kwemauto kwakadaro, hongu, kuchatungamira. hurumende dzemunharaunda kuti dzigadzirise mauto adzo, senzira yekudzivirira kupindira kwehurumende kana kugadzirira kurwisana nemauto.
Kureva kuti, pasina kuisirwa zviwanikwa zvakakura kubva kurudzi kuenda kuhurumende dzenzvimbo idzi, mapurovhinzi akasiyana achadzokera kune "guta-state" chimiro chave chiripo kwemakore mashoma apfuura, umo hurumende dzenzvimbo dzaigara dzichinetsana. Hurumende yepakati nekutadza kwavo kuwana "ipapo mugove wakanaka" wemari yemafuta, vachiramba vachitonga matunhu avo nekubvisa mari dzakasiyana siyana dzekushandisa munharaunda. Kunyange zvazvo zviwanikwa izvi zvisina kukwana kumutsiridza hupfumi hwenyika, chokwadi pane zvakakwana kuita kuti pave nekusawirirana uye kunyange mhirizhonga pakati pematunhu nehurumende yepakati, pamwe nepakati pematunhu.
Kusawirirana uku kwave kuuya kunove bhomba renguva pfupi sezvo 2009 yave kuenda kusarudzo dzenyika mukupera kwegore. Kana mubatanidzwa usina kusimba wemubatanidzwa unoumba mubatanidzwa wesarudzo waMaliki weDa'wa ukaparara, ipapo mukana wekuti Maliki asarudzwe zvakare uchaparara, sekupokana kwakaita Dreyfuss. Kukundwa kwake muna Zvita 2009 kwaizounza nguva iyo ruzhinji rwevamiriri veparamende vari vese vanotyisa vanopikisa Maliki uye nehutsinye anti-America. Zvinogoneka kuti panongosvika Zvita, VaObama vangangotarisana nesarudzo pakati pekudzivirira nemauto kana kudzima sarudzo dzemuIraq dzaZvita kana kubvumidza hurumende inovhurika ine utsinye kutora masimba.
Bhuku idzva raMichael Schwartz, Hondo Isingaperi: Hondo yeIraq mune Context, yakabudiswa muna September. Inotsanangura zvikonzero zvezvematongerwo enyika uye zvehupfumi nemhedzisiro yekupindirwa, ichiongorora kuti midzi yehondo mune mauto geopolitics yemafuta yakatungamira sei US kuputsa nyika nehupfumi hweIraqi ichikurudzira hondo yevagari vemo mukati meIraq. Purofesa wesociology paStony Brook State University Schwartz ndiye munyori wemabhuku anohwina mubairo. pamusoro pekuratidzira kwakakurumbira uye kumukira (Radical Protest uye Social Structure), uye paAmerican bhizinesi uye masimba ehurumende(Iyo Simba Chimiro cheAmerican Bhizinesi, naBeth Mintz). Kunze kweZNet, basa rake paIraq rakaonekwa munzvimbo dzakawanda dzedzidzo uye dzakakurumbira, kusanganisira TomDispatch, Asia Times, Amai Jones, Cities uye Contexts. email address yake inoti [email inodzivirirwa].
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