Chii, chaizvo, sarudzo yaBarack Obama yakapfava yekutungamira Dhipatimendi reHutano neHuman Services, aimbove Senator Tom Daschle, ine chekuita nemaneocons anoda kubhomba Iran?
Mubatanidzwa wakajairwa wehawks, hardliners, uye neoconservatives unotarisira kuti nhaurirano dzaBarack Obama dzakataurwa neIran dzikundikane - uye vari kutokurudzira seti yekuwedzera yematanho panzvimbo. Dzimwe dzinoitirwa kuti dziitike pamwe chete nehurukuro dzipi nedzipi dzomunguva yemberi. Izvi zvinosanganisira nhanho dzekusimudzira kudyidzana neIsrael, zvirango zvakaomesesa kurwisa Iran, uye dunhu rose remauto emauto eUS anorova mauto, kusanganisira kuisirwa zvinhu zvemauto mukati mechinhambwe chenyika iyoyo.
Kana nhaurirano dzeramangwana dzaparara, sezvavanovimba kuti zvichaitika, vanokurudzira kuti Washington ikurumidze kukwira kumatanho akafanana nehondo, kusanganisira US Navy-inomanikidza embargo pakupinzwa kwemafuta eIran uye kuvharirwa kwemafuta ekunze kwenyika. Pakupedzisira, hongu, kunouya kurwisa kwemauto kweIslam Republic of Iran uko vazhinji vavo vanga vachida kwenguva yakareba.
Zviri kuedza kudzinga mhashu zvino sedzakabviswa kaviri pamasimba: kutanga, nhamba dzakaita saJohn Bolton, Paul Wolfowitz, naDouglas Feith dzakabviswa pazvigaro zvepamusoro muBush administration mushure megore ra2004; zvino kusarudzwa kwaBarack Obama uye chiziviso cheMuvhuro cheboka rake repakati, rine pfungwa dzechokwadi rekugadzwa kwezvematongerwo enyika gurus zvakaita sekuroverera mikova yemasimba kuvharirwa maNeocons, avo vakashoropodza zvikuru hurongwa hwemutungamiri wenyika akasarudzwa kutaura neIran, vobvisa. Mauto eUS kubva kuIraq, uye osiya Hondo yepasi rose yehugandanga rhetoric yenguva yeBush.
"Kinetic Chiito" Kurwisa Iran
Kana zvasvika kuIran, zvakadaro, kuchiri kare kudzinga mhata. Kutaura chokwadi, ivo vari kuita kutengeserana kwavo kubva kunze kwemikoto yesimba, asi vane shamwari dzakawanda mukati memusasa waObama kupfuura zvinozivikanwa nevanhu vazhinji. Vanachipangamazano vakati wandei kuna Obama - kusanganisira Tony Lake, Mumiriri weUN-akasarudzwa Susan Rice, Tom Daschle, uye Dennis Ross, pamwe nevatungamiriri veDemocratic hawks vakaita saRichard Holbrooke, padyo neMutevedzeri weMutungamiriri akasarudzwa VaJoe Biden kana Secretary of State-akasarudzwa Hillary Clinton - vakaita zvikonzero zvakajairika nevanofungidzira zvehondo. iyo Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), iyo American Enterprise Institute (AEI), uye mamwe masangano akaomarara.
Chirimo chapfuura, Tony Lake naSusan Rice, semuenzaniso, vakatora chikamu muWINEP "2008 Presidential Task Force" kudzidza kwakaguma neshumo. musoro, "Kusimbisa Kudyidzana: Maitiro Ekuwedzera Kubatana kweUS-Israel paIran Nuclear Challenge." The Institute, chikamu cheWashington-based Israel lobby, yakavambwa mukubatana neAmerican-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), uye yanga ichitsigira zvakasimba kunetsana neIran. Chirevo cheboka rebasa, chakapihwa muna Chikumi, chakatariswa neina WINEP heavyweights: Robert Satloff, director director weWINEP, Patrick Clawson, mukuru wayo muongorori weIran, David Makovsky, mumwe mukuru, uye Dennis Ross, chipangamazano waObama uyo ariwo WINEP shamwari.
Yakatsigirwa neLake neRice, mushumo wacho wakasarudza kutarisisa nezvechirongwa chenyukireya cheIran uye akakurudzira kuti mutungamiri anotevera amise nzira yeUS-Israel yekuronga mutemo wakanangana neIran (kusanganisira chero ramangwana rekuda kwe "chiuto chekudzivirira"). Yakakwevera ngwariro kukutya kweIsrael kuti "United States ingangove ichizviyananisa pachayo nepfungwa 'yekugara neIranian bhomba renyukireya,'" uye yakasimudza kutya kwenhema kuti Iran inoronga kupa zvikwata zvemagandanga nezvombo zvenyukireya.
Hapana, chokwadi, hapana chakaipa nekubvunzana pakati peUnited States neIsrael. Asi chirevo cheWINEP chiri pachena chakafanotungamira kune zano rekuti United States inofanirwa kupa huremu husina kufanira kumatambudziko eIsrael pamusoro peIran. Uye inofuratira kana kudzinga zvinhu zvakati wandei: kuti Iran haina chombo chenyukireya, kuti Iran haina kupfumisa uranium kune giredhi rezvombo, kuti Iran ive isina ruzivo rwekuvaka chombo kunyangwe, pane imwe nguva mune ramangwana. inokwanisa kuwana bhomba-giredhi zvinhu, uye kuti Iran haina nzira inozivikanwa yekuburitsa chombo chakadaro.
WINEP ndeyechokwadi kuti United States inofanirwa kutaurirana zvakanyanya neIsrael nezveIran. Zvichingotaura, zvakadaro, nhaurirano yeUS-Israel pamusoro pe "dambudziko renyukireya" reIran ichafanirwa kutarisa pazvinhu zvakasiyana zvachose nezviri muchirongwa cheWINEP. Chekutanga, United States inofanirwa kuita kuti zvive pachena kuIsrael kuti hapana kana mamiriro ezvinhu ichabvumira kana kutsigira unilateral kurwisa kweIsrael kurwisa Iran. Chechipiri, Washington inofanira kujekesa kuti kana Israel yaizoita kurwisa kwakadaro, United States yaizozvishora, kuramba kuwedzera hondo nekuuya kuzobatsira Israeri, uye kumisa rubatsiro rwese rwemauto kunyika yechiJudha. Uye chechitatu, Israel inofanirwa kuwana meseji yekuti, kunyangwe yakapihwa zvakanyanya uye zvisingaite mukana wekuti United States inoona zvakakodzera kuenda kuhondo neIran, hapazove nebasa reIsrael.
Sezvakangoita muhondo dzekurwa neIraq muna 1990-1991 uye 2003-2008, United States haitomboda rubatsiro rweIsrael, izvo zvingave zvakanyanyisa uye zvinopisa. Dennis Ross nevamwe paWINEP, zvisinei, vangapokana zvakasimba kuti Israeri chikamu chedambudziko, kwete chikamu chemhinduro.
Ross, akashanda semumiriri weMiddle East kuGeorge HW Bush uyezve Bill Clinton, aivewo akakosha kutora chikamu muchikwata chaGunyana 2008 chaitungamirwa nevaimbova maseneta maviri, Daniel Coats (R.-Ind.) naChuck Robb (D.- Va.), uye inotungamirwa naMichael Makovsky, mukoma waWINEP David Makovsky, akashanda muHofisi yeMunyori weDziviriro muzuva rePentagon neocons kubva 2002-2006. Robb, sezvineiwo, akange atoshanda senzira yeneocons mu2006 Iraq Study Group, inotungamirwa neaimbova Secretary of State James Baker uye aimbove Mumiriri Lee Hamilton. Maererano nebhuku razvino raBob Woodward, Hondo Mukati: Yakavanzika White House Nhoroondo 2006-2008, akanga ari Robb akasimbirira kuti Baker-Hamilton task force inosanganisira sarudzo ye "surge" muIraq.
Chirevo cheboka rebasa reCoats-Robb - "Kusangana Nedambudziko: US Policy Toward Iranian Nuclear Development" - yakapfuura nepamusoro pechirevo cheWINEP cheboka rekuti Lake neRice zvakasaina. Yakagumisa kuti chero nhaurirano neIran dzaisakwanisa kubudirira uye dzinofanira, chero zvakadaro, kuve kwenguva pfupi. Sezvo mushumo wacho wakaisa nyaya yacho, "Zvinofanira kuva pachena kuti chero hurukuro dzeUnited States-Iranian hadzizove dzakazaruka, asi dzichagumira kune imwe nguva yakatemerwa nguva kuitira kuti Tehran isaedze 'kupedza wachi.' "
Vachitarisira kutadza kwehurukuro, boka rebasa (kusanganisira Ross) rakakurudzira "kuisa midziyo yemauto," pamwe ne "show of force" mudunhu. Izvi zvaizoteverwa nekukasira nekuvharwa kweIran peturu nekutengeswa kunze kwenyika, zvichireva kumisa hupfumi hweIran, zvichiteverwa nezvavanodaidza, zvisina kujeka, "kinetic chiito."
Iyo "kinetic chiito" - kurwisa kweUS kuIran - kunofanira, kuve kwakakura, akadaro Coats-Robb chirevo. Kunze kwekurova akawanda emasaiti anofungidzirwa kuve chikamu chechirongwa cheIran chekutsvaga nyukireya, kurwiswa kwaizonanga Iranian air defense uye missile nzvimbo, masisitimu ekutaurirana, Revolutionary Guard zvivako, zvikamu zvakakosha zveIran-industrial complex, munitions storage, airfields, zvivakwa zvendege. , uye zvese zvivakwa zvengarava zveIran. Pakupedzisira, vanoti, United States yaizofanirawo kurwisa mauto epasi eIran, mashizha emagetsi emagetsi nemagetsi emagetsi, mabhiriji, uye "miti yekugadzira, kusanganisira simbi, motokari, mabhazi, nezvimwewo."
Izvi, zvechokwadi, mamiriro ekusimudza bvudzi. Kurwisa kwakadai kune nyika isina kuita hondo neUnited States kana chero ipi zvayo yevabatsiri vayo kunokonzeresa vanhu vasingaverengeki vafa, kungangoparadza hupfumi hweIran nezvivakwa, uye kukanganisa nharaunda yese. Kuti boka repamusoro-soro rezvivheneko rinofanirwa kutokurudzira matanho akaita seaya - uye zvichireva - rinogona kungotsanangurwa semupengo. Kuti chipangamazano akakosha kuMutungamiriri-vakasarudzwa VaObama angasaina kumushumo wakadaro kunofanira kunge kuchikatyamadza, kunyangwe hazvo zvanga zvisingatarisirwe.
Palling Around neNeocons
Pamusangano waNovember 6 paWINEP, Patrick Clawson, the erudite, neoconservative strategist anoshanda semutevedzeri wemukuru wesangano patsvagiridzo, akatara maonero esangano pamusoro pekutaura neIran munguva yaObama. Kuita izvi, akadaro, kwakakosha zvakanyanya, asi kungoratidza nyika yese kuti United States yatora danho rekupedzisira rerunyararo - isati yatanga kurwisa. Ipapo, uye ipapo chete, iyo United States ichave nemvumo yainoda kutanga chiito chemauto kurwisa Iran.
"Zvatinofanira kuita kuratidza nyika kuti tiri kuita basa guru rekuita maIran," akadaro, achikanda pfupa kune hutongi hutsva. "Ndaikanda zvose, kusanganisira sink yekicheni, mairi." Anotsigira nzira iyi chete nekuti anotenda kuti haishande. "Chinangwa chikuru nezvipo izvi [kuIran] haisi Iran," anowedzera. "Chinangwa chikuru chezvipo izvi maonero eruzhinji rweAmerica uye maonero eruzhinji rwepasirese."
The Coats-Robb report, Meeting the Challenge," rakanyorwa nemumwe wevakaomesesa veWashington's neoconservative hardliners, Michael Rubin weAmerican Enterprise Institute. Rubin, akapedza makore mazhinji kubva 9/11 achishandira AEI kana, asati asvika. uye panguva yehondo muIraq, yeWolfowitz-Feith timu paPentagon, ichangobva kunyora chirevo cheInstitute chine musoro unoti: "Ini Nuclear Iran Inogona Kudziviswa kana Kuwanikwa?" Hazvishamise kuti anotenda kuti mhinduro ndeye "kwete" yakasimba, kunyangwe achikurudzira kuti chero kuedza kuve nenyukireya Iran kunoda kuti zvigadziko zveUS zvipararire zvakanyanya mudunhu, kusanganisira muIraq:
"Kana mauto eUnited States achizove neIslam Republic, havazodi kuti vagare munyika dzeGCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] chete, asiwo muAfghanistan, Iraq, Central Asia, neCaucasus. kukwanisa kuchengetedza zviwanikwa zvakafanoiswa uye midziyo inodiwa kuve neIran, uye Washington icharatidza kusazvipira kune vese vanobatana mudunhu.
Chirevo cheCoats-Robb chakaburitswa neboka risingazivikanwe rinodaidzwa kuti iyo Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC). Iro sangano, zvakare, rinoita kunge rakarukwa neWINEP, kwete nekuti mutungamiriri wezvekune dzimwe nyika ndiMichael Makovsky. Pamwe anonyanya kunetsa anotora chikamu muBipartisan Policy Center ndiBarack Obama รฉminence grise uye mumwe wevanachipangamazano vake vakanyanya kukosha panguva yemushandirapamwe, Tom Daschle, uyo anotarisirwa kuve munyori wake wezvehutano nemabasa evanhu. Kusvika pari zvino, Daschle haasati aramba mushumo wekutsamwisa weBPC.
Ross, pamwe chete Richard Holbrooke, nguva pfupi yadarika yakaonekwa pakati peimwe muunganidzwa we superhawks vakauya pamwechete kuti vawane sangano idzva, United Against Nuclear Iran. UANI ndiye chando naMark Wallace, murume waNicole Wallace, nhengo yakakosha yeboka raSeneta John McCain. Pakati peboka rehutungamiriri reUANI ndiRoss naHolbrooke, pamwe chete nema hardliners akadai Jim Woolsey, aimbova mutungamiriri weCentral Intelligence Agency, uye Fouad Ajami, nyanzvi yeArab-America inova mukuru wedzidziso paMiddle East mutemo webato reNeoconservative.
UANI inonyanya kuve chipfeko che propaganda. Basa rayo, rinodaro, "nderokuzivisa veruzhinji nezve mamiriro ehutongi hweIran, kusanganisira chishuwo chayo uye chinangwa chekutora zvombo zvenyukireya, pamwe nebasa reIran semutsigiri wehurumende wehugandanga hwepasi rose, uye anotyora zvakanyanya kodzero dzevanhu. kumba nekune dzimwe nyika" uye "kuwedzera ruzivo munyika uye pasi rose nezve njodzi iyo Iran ine zvombo zvenyukireya inoisa kudunhu nepasirese."
Barack Obama, hongu, akadzokorora kuzivisa chinangwa chake chekutanga imwe nzira nekuvhura hurukuro neIran. Akasimbirira kuti diplomacy, kwete kuita zvechiuto, ndiyo ichave padanho rekuenda kwake kuTehran. Panguva yemushandirapamwe wesarudzo, zvakadaro, akataura zvakare zvishoma zvishoma kuti haazotore kutyisidzira kwechiuto "kubva patafura."
Masangano akaita seWINEP, AIPAC, AEI, BPC, neUANI vanozviona sebasa ravo kusundira United States kumakwikwi neIran. Usazvitengese pfupi. Avo vanotenda kuti kunetsana kwakadai hakugoneke pasi peMutungamiri Obama vanofanirwa kubvunza Tony Lake, Susan Rice, Dennis Ross, Tom Daschle, naRichard Holbrooke kana vachibvumirana - uye, kana zvakadaro, nei vachiri kutenderera neoconservative hardliners. .
Robert Dreyfuss, mutori wenhau akazvimirira muAlexandria, Virginia, mupepeti ari kubatsira mumagazini yeNation, ane webhusaiti yake. The Dreyfuss Report, uye akanyora kakawanda kuRolling Stone, The American Prospect, Amai Jones, uye Washington Monthly. Ndiye munyori we Dhiabhorosi Mutambo: Mabatiro EUnited States Akabatsira Kusunungura Dzidziso dzeIslam.
[Chinyorwa ichi chakatanga kubuda Tomdispatch.com, weblog yeNational Institute, iyo inopa kuyerera kwakadzikama kwemamwe masosi, nhau, uye maonero kubva kuna Tom Engelhardt, mupepeti wenguva refu mukutsikisa, muvambi we iyo American Empire ProjectMuvambi Mugumo Wekukunda Muitiro, uye mupepeti we Nyika Maererano neTomdispatch: America muNew Age yeHumambo.]
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