Prof Kevin Anderson, Manchester University, vanopfupisa chiito chinodiwa dai hurumende nenzanga dzakazvipira chaizvo kuchengetedza tembiricha yepasi rose iri pedyo ne1.5ยฐC - uye kuti paizova nemabhenefiti akawanda sei.
Mukusaina Chibvumirano cheParis Climate Agreement, hurumende dzakazvipira kuchengetedza tembiricha yepasi rose kusvika pa1.5 kusvika 2ยฐC. Zvisinei, sezvatinonzwisisa zvakawanda pamusoro pehukuru hwekukanganisa kwekukwira kwekushisa, kusimbisa kwakawedzera kuenda ku1.5 ยฐ C sekuzvipira kwedu kwekutanga; uye kunyange 1.5 ยฐ C iri kure nemuganhu wakachengeteka wenharaunda dzakawanda pasi rose. Vanhu vari kutotambura uye vari kufa nekuda kwezvinokonzeresa zvine chekuita nekukwira kwe1.1 ยฐ C chete, mamiriro atinoda kuti tirambe tiri pamberi pekufunga kwedu kana tichifunga nezve izvo uye zvisingagoneke.
Zvatinowana kubva kusainzi ifungidziro yakanaka yehuwandu hwekabhoni dhayokisaidhi yatinogona kukanda mumhepo kana tichizozvipa mukana we50:50 wekusadarika 1.5ยฐC. Ndiyo inenge mabhiriyoni mazana mana ematani eCO400. Kuti uwane mukana wakanaka wekugara pasi pe2 ยฐ C, kukosha uku kunopeta kusvika kumatani emabhiriyoni mazana masere. Izvi zvingaite sezvizhinji, asi 2bn tonnes ari pasi pemakore gumi ehutsi hwazvino (kubvira kutanga kwa800), uye 400bn tonnes isingasviki makore makumi maviri, asi zvakadaro nekuipa kwakanyanya kwemamiriro ekunze.
Parizvino tiri kushandisa bhajeti rekabhoni pamwero ungangoita 1 muzana mwedzi wega wega mukana we50:50 we1.5ยฐC. Saka, panguva yekunyora - muna Kurume 2023 - takashandisa zvishoma pasi pegumi neshanu muzana yebhajeti yakazara 15 ยฐ C. Uku hakusi kuverenga kwakaoma, asi kungoita kabhoni bhajeti kubva kumishumo yeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uye shoma yemasvomhu. Kanda mukuzvipira kwedu kwatakadzokorora kupa nyika dzine hurombo nguva yakati rebei kuti dzisvike pakuburitsa zero, tobva tatarisa nzvimbo dzakapfuma dzepasirese dzinoda kuwana zero zvinobuda, ndiko kuti zero fossil kushandiswa kwemafuta, panosvika 1.5 kusvika 2030, ne Nyika dzine urombo dzine makore gumi kusvika gumi nemashanu ekusununguka - kusvika kuma 2035 kusvika 10. Iyi hurongwa hwakasimba uye hwakasimba mune zvesainzi hunopa meseji yakajeka pamusoro pepfungwa yekubvisa. Pasi penguva pfupi yakadai, chikamu chega chega chiri kutarisana nemadziro kuti chiunze chikamu chayo chakanaka chekucheka muhuturo - hapana yakawedzera isina kubatwa. Zvichave zvakaoma zvikuru kusvika chero padyo ne15 kusvika 2040 ยฐ C kuzvipira sezvazviri, kunyangwe ini ndichifunga kuti ichiri kuita-inokwanisa - chete. Kurudziro yekuti isu maemitter akakwira, angave nyika, makambani kana vanhuwo zvavo, tinogona 'kubvisa' kucheka kwatinoda kuita nekukurumidza nekuzvipfuudza kune vamwe njodzi dzakakomba dzichisiya bhizinesi-semazuva ese risina kushanduka. Munyika ye2050 kusvika ku1.5 ยฐ C, kubvisa chikamu chikuru chedambudziko.
Saka ngatidzokere shure uye tifunge pamusoro pezvatinofanira kuita chaizvo. Kusvika pari zvino, tave nemakore makumi matatu ekutadza, magadzirirwo kubhizinesi-semazuva ese, misika yekabhoni, uye tarisiro yedodgy yeramangwana tekinoroji inosveta carbon dioxide kubva mumhepo makumi emakore kubva zvino. Zvisina maturo zvakadaro hazvisi kuzotisvitsa pedyo nekabhoni bhajeti diki uye iri kukurumidza kupera idzo dzasara nadzo. Chatinoda nekukurumidza ndeyeMarshall Plan-style yekuburitsa yakaderera uye zero kabhoni tekinoroji. Aya matekinoroji anovhara kudzoreredza dzimba dzedu, zvifambiso zvevoruzhinji, uye kugadzirwa kwemagetsi kukuru. Izvo zvakanyanya izvi 'kure-kubva-sexy' kuguma kwehunyanzvi hwakakosha; tekinoroji dzemazuva ese dzinotitendera kurarama hupenyu hwakagadzikana uye hunogutsa, pane zviroto zvemotokari hombe uye dzine simba dzemagetsi (EVs), ndege dzemagetsi, uye yakawanda yekubvisa kabhoni dioxide mune ramangwana.
Asi kukurumidza kutumirwa kweiyo iripo zero kabhoni tekinoroji, pachayo, haichakwanisi kukwana. Isu takaisiya yanonoka zvekuti tekinoroji haizombofa yakaunza iri yega. Chimiro chinodiwa, asi chisina kukwana. Tinodawo shanduko dzakadzama mumagariro ehupfumi nemagariro evanhu vemazuva ano. Kureva kukurumidza kuchinja kwevashandi nezviwanikwa izvo zvinopa zvisingaenzaniswi humbozha hwevashoma vehama - kwete mabhirioni chete, asiwo vanhu vakaita seni. Zviwanikwa zvakadaro nebasa zvinodikanwa nekukasira kukurumidza decarbonise zvivakwa zvedu zvemuviri, kubva padzimba kuenda kune zvekutakura uye indasitiri kusvika pakupihwa kwesimba. Saka hachisi chirevo chekare chekuti 'tora kubva kuvapfumi upe kuvarombo', kubatanidza kugona kwenharaunda kuita zvibereko, basa rayo nezviwanikwa, kuendesa zvakanakira veruzhinji kune vese - mamiriro ekunze akagadzikana ane zvishoma zvinokanganisa. Iri idambudziko guru!
Saka zvaizoita sei? Rega nditore mienzaniso mishoma. Kuhwina kwekutanga kunenge kuri kumisa kukwidziridzwa kwenhandare yendege uye chirongwa chekuunza kuderedzwa kwakanaka kwe80 muzana mukufamba kwese kwendege panosvika 2030. Zvakare, hapasisina mota nyowani dzeinjini dzinopisa mukati dzichavakwa kubva muna 2025, uye pachange paine shanduko huru. kure nemota dzakavanzika mumaguta nenzvimbo dzemudhorobha dzakabatanidzwa nekuchinja kuenda kune zvifambiso zvevoruzhinji uye kufamba kunoshanda. Pamwe nharaunda dzekumaruwa dzaizoramba dzichishandisa maEV, asi nerendi kwete yevaridzi. Zvakare zvinodikanwa kungave kudzoreredzwa kwedzimba dziripo, kwete chete chirongwa chekuyedza asi kunyatsoiburitsa mumugwagwa nemugwagwa pamwero mukuru. Passive imba zviyero zvaizodiwa pane zvese zvitsva zvivakwa uye zvakare yakakura saizi chikumbaridzo. Sei tichivaka dzimba dziri 200 kusvika 400m2? Cheka izvi kusvika pa100 kusvika 150m2, ichiri misha mikuru, asi ine zviwanikwa zvishoma uye kushandiswa kwezvinhu - uye zvechokwadi ivhu shoma! Uye kana tichitengesa dzimba hombe dziripo, ita kuti dzigovane zvine hungwaru uye zvine hunyanzvi kuita dzimba dzakakura. Zvese izvo zvaizosunungura vashandi uye zviwanikwa kuti uwane inodiwa decarbonisation ajenda. Pamusoro pezvese izvi tinoda kuwedzera kukuru kwekuisa magetsi musimba resimba. Ichi chikero chisati chamboitika uye mwero weshanduko - kusundira kugona kugadzira kwenharaunda kusvika painogumira uye nekudaro ichida kugovaniswazve kwevashandi nezviwanikwa kuti zviunze remangwana rakajeka, rakagadzikana uye rakabudirira.
Asi isu tichawana sei kutenga kwezvematongerwo enyika kune iyi shanduko yekuchinja muzvimiro? Handifungi kuti zvakaoma kuwana ruzhinji rwevanhu shure kwekuchinja kwakanaka kwakadaro; zvinoda kutendeseka uye kutaura chokwadi. Ruzhinji rwevanhu ruchararama zviri nani mune zvinenge zvese zvehupenyu hwavo. Kwete chete kubviswa kwehurombo hwemafuta - pakupedzisira - asi dzimba dzakavandudzwa uye dzinodziya, zvikwereti zvakaderedzwa uye zviri nani zvikuru mukati uye kunze kwemhepo yemhepo - zvichiita kuti vana vane hutano vakwanise kutora chikamu zvizere muchikoro. Zvifambiso zvevoruzhinji zvakachena, zvinoshanda uye zvakavimbika - kune vese vagari - ruzha rushoma, nzvimbo yedhorobha inoshandiswa kumapaki, macafe, nhandare uye zvimwe zvivakwa zvakawanda zvinoita nharaunda inobudirira. Uye izvi zvose zvinoda vashandi vane unyanzvi uye vakadzidziswa - mabasa emhando uye akachengeteka, kwete kungoshanda kwenguva pfupi call centre. Muchidimbu, kune ruzhinji, uku ndiko kunatsiridza kwakakosha kwehupenyu - uye, semubatsiri weparutivi, hapasisina kabhoni emissions uye zvakanyanya kushoma kusvibiswa kwese.
Nzanga ichabhadhara sei ramangwana rinofambira mberi zvakadaro? Ndinonzwa vamwe vanhu vachibvunza. Ndiko uko kukurumidza kuchinja kwevashandi nezviwanikwa kwakakosha chaizvo. Tinoziva zvokuita uye tinoziva kuti vanhu vakawanda vachange vari nani zvikuru. Asi boka duku, rinodya zvakanyanya richasangana nekuzvipira kukuru kwezvinhu - uye, zvechokwadi, kunze kwezvimwe zvishoma, hatizoiti izvi nekuzvidira. Saka mubvunzo uri mudiki zvikuru โchii chatinofanira kuita?โ Tinotoziva. Uye haisiriyo nzira yekuipa mari. Isu tinoziva kuita izvo zvakare - kuburikidza, semuenzaniso, chirongwa cheGreen New Deal - uye kuti isu tine mari inodiwa uye hupfumi munharaunda yeizvi. Mubvunzo ndewekuti tinoshandura sei gakava kuti risafambiswe nevaridzi venhepfenyuro huru, vatori venhau vakuru nenyanzvi dzedzidzo, vezvemabhizimisi nevanoita mitemo โ vose vari muchikamu chepamusoro chekubudisa mari โ uye vakabudirira kudivi- yakarongedza basa repakati rekuenzana mugakava. Izvi ane kuchinja kana tikasatarisana nenjodzi yekukwira kwekushisa nekukurumidza uye zvinokonzeresa zvinozoitika.
Asi tinoita sei kuti gakava rizarurwe? Ko voruzhinji vakanyarara, avo vachaita zvakanaka chaizvo kubva muidzi chinjo, vanganzwa sei manzwi avo pasina kumonyaniswa naavo vari kufambisa shoo? Kana vezvenhau, 'vakuru uye vakanaka' nyanzvi uye isu ma-emitters akakwirira tikaramba tine nzira yedu hapazovi nekuchinja mubhizinesi-semazuva ose kusvikira tarohwa nemamiriro ekunze kusagadzikana kwekusaita. Kana, zvakadaro, manzwi akakwana achigona kupaza nepakati pemamiriro ezvinhu, pamwe gakava rakatendeseka uye rinosanganisirwa rinogona kukonzereswa. Sezvo isu tafambira mberi kupfuura vanoramba mamiriro ekunze, saka ikozvino isu tinofanirwa kuenderera mberi kwe "mitation deniers" avo greenwash bhizinesi-semazuva ese. Kwandiri zvirinani, kusimuka kwemubatanidzwa weveruzhinji panyaya dzemamiriro ekunze pamwe chete nehunyanzvi hwepasirese hunoratidza izvo zvagara zvichigoneka, zvinokurudzira kuti isu tingave mujinga renzvimbo yemagariro uye tekinoroji tipping point. Ehe, isu hatigone kuziva izvi kusvika isu tave kurarama mazviri. Asi isu tinokwanisa kuwedzera mukana wayo uye nekukasira kuparara kweiyo yepamusoro-kabhoni mamiriro ezvinhu nekudzokorodza uye nekubatana kupikisa 'vanorambisisa' kwese kwavanogona kugara.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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