Chirevo chitsva kubva kuUnited Nations' mamiriro ekunze anoyambira vanhu vane makore gumi nemaviri chete ekudzikamisa kudziya kwepasi uye kudzikisira huwandu hwenjodzi yepasi rose. Zvikasadaro, mamiriyoni achaiswa mungozi nokusanaya kwemvura, mafashamo, mwoto nourombo. Mushumo wakakura weU.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change unokurudzira shanduko yechimbichimbi uye isati yamboitika kumutemo wepasi rose kuitira kuti kudziya kwepasi rose kusvike pa1.5ºC. Tinotaura naKevin Anderson, purofesa weZennström muhutungamiri hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze paCentre for Environment and Development Studies paUppsala University uye sachigaro wesimba uye kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze paTyndall Center yeClimate Change Research paYunivhesiti yeManchester muBritain. Anoti iye IPCC chirevo chinotadza kuita kuti vamiriri vepasirese vazvidavirire, uye vanoti "Marshall Plan" yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze inofanirwa kuchengetedza pasi kubva mukuparadzwa. “Inenge 70 muzana yemhepo inobudiswa pasi rose yecarbon dioxide inobva inenge 20 muzana yevanhu venyika. Patinoedza kugadzirisa kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye kuderedza utsi hwedu nekutarisa kune vese vanhu 7.5 bhiriyoni, ndinofunga kuti hazvinzwisise kuti basa chairo rehutsi rinogara kupi," Anderson anodaro. "Hatisi kugadzira marongero anofanirwa kuenderana neiyo 20 muzana."
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Ichi chi Dememocracy Zvino! Ini ndiri Amy Goodman. MuCentral America, vanhu vanosvika gumi nevatatu vafa mushure mekunaya kwemvura zhinji kubva kuHurricane Michael yakarova Honduras, Nicaragua neEl Salvador, zvichikonzera mafashamo makuru uye kukoromoka kwevhu. Iyo monster hurricane inotarisirwa kuwira muFlorida Panhandle seChikamu 13 dutu Chitatu, naFlorida Gavhuna Rick Scott achizivisa mamiriro enjodzi mumatunhu makumi matatu nemashanu, Gavhuna weAlabama Kay Ivey achizivisa mamiriro enjodzi kudunhu rose.
Florida iri kugadzirira dutu guru semushumo mutsva kubva kuUnited Nations mamiriro ekunze anoyambira vanhu vane makore gumi nemaviri chete ekudzora shanduko yemamiriro ekunze kana kutarisana nenjodzi yepasi rose. Uyu ndiye mukuru weUN meteorological agency Petteri Taalas.
PETTERI TAALAS: Pane kukurumidza kukuru uye nyika dzinopa mhiko dzadzo mushure meChibvumirano cheParis. Uye kusvika pari zvino kufambira mberi kwanga kusati kwave kwakanaka zvekuti taizoenda kune 1.5 kana 2 madhigirii. Saka pane zvakajeka kudiwa kwechishuwo chakanyanya kukwirira kusvika kunyange 2 madhigirii chinangwa. Saka isu tiri kunyanya kuenda ku3 kusvika ku5 parizvino. …
Pane fungidziro: Ndeupi musiyano uripo pakati pe1.5 degree ne2 degree? Uye imwe yenyaya huru ndeyekuti paizove ne420 miriyoni vanhu vanotambura zvishoma nekuda kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, kana tikakwanisa kudzikamisa kudziya kusvika 1.5 degree. …
Nechekare hutsi hwatakaburitsa mumhepo zvinoreva kuti maitiro asina kunaka aya achaenderera mberi kwemakumi emakore ari kuuya. Saka izvo zvichaitika, uye zvinoreva kuwanda kwenjodzi nematambudziko ekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: The IPCC Chirevo chinotaridza nzira dzinoverengeka dzinogona kudzikamisa kudziya kwepasi kusvika pa1.5 madhigirii Celsius, kusanganisira shanduko yekushandiswa kwevhu uye masisitimu ekufambisa uye kutorwa kwehunyanzvi hweramangwana, kusanganisira kubvisa kabhoni dhigirii kubva mumhepo. Maererano neshumo, pasi rose net carbon emissions yaizoda kudonha nezvikamu makumi mana neshanu kubva muzana kubva 45 mazinga kusvika 2010 uye kusvika kune zero kusvika 2030. NeMuvhuro, Mutungamiri Trump vakaenda kuOrlando, Florida, asi havana kutaura nezvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kana itsva. Mushumo wakakosha weUnited Nations.
Zvakanaka, kune zvimwe, takabatanidzwa naKevin Anderson. Ndiye purofesa wehutungamiri hwekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze paCentre for Environment and Development Studies paUppsala University. Ndiye zvakare sachigaro wesimba uye shanduko yemamiriro ekunze paTyndall Center yeClimate Change Research paYunivhesiti yeManchester muBritain.
Dr. Anderson, tinogamuchirwa zvakare Dememocracy Zvino!
KEVIN ANDERSON: Mangwanani akanaka.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Ini ndaida kukubvunza chekutanga nezve iyi chirevo sezvo ichi chikara chamupupuri chichipfuura nemuLatin America uye chinotakura pasi paFlorida neAlabama.
KEVIN ANDERSON: Huye, mushumo uyu unoburitsa pachena kuti pakati pe1.5 madhigirii centigrade ekudziya uye 2 madhigirii centigrade ekudziya, isu tichatarisira kuona zvakanyanya mamiriro ekunze, ndosaka nzvimbo zhinji dzepasirese dzakakumbira nzanga yesainzi kuti iongorore. ndeupi misiyano chaiyo pakati pezvinokonzeresa pa1.5 uye 2 madhigirii. Uye, hongu, madhigirii maviri ndiwo aive chikumbaridzo chekare icho isu tese taive takavavarira, asi sezvabuda mushumo, zviri pachena kuti kune huwandu hwese hwekukanganisa hwakanyanya kuipa pa2 degrees centigrade pane 2 , uye kuti izvi zvinokanganisa zvichanyanya kubata nharaunda dzine hurombo uye dzinosangana nemamiriro ekunze pasi rose.
Saka ishumo rakakosha maererano nekunzwisisa kukanganisa kwemamiriro ekunze uye kujekesa kuti tinofanira kuvavarira, chaizvo, kune 1.5 kwete 2 madhigirii, zvisinei, sezvatichakurukura gare gare, ndinofunga kunyangwe 2 madhigirii ari kutarisa zvakanyanya. ndine tariro zvino.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Iwe unonyora mumhinduro yako kune iyi yakakosha rondedzero yeUN kuti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze ibasa revashoma vanobuda zvakanyanya. Tsanangura kuti ndivanaani.
KEVIN ANDERSON: Eya, kungoisa dzimwe nhamba pane izvi, inenge hafu yezvinobuda munyika yose zvinobva mumibato yeinenge 10 muzana chete yechiverengero chavagari vapasi chenyika, uye inenge 70 muzana yokubudiswa kwose kwecarbon dioxide munyika yose kunobva inenge 20 muzana yechiverengero chavagari vapasi. Uye zvakanyanya, kuburitswa kwacho kune chekuita nehupfumi kana mari yevagari. Saka, purofesa akaita seni achange ari mumiriri wepamusoro. Kazhinji mapurofesa vanogara mudzimba huru uye vane mota yakati kurei. Vachafamba kazhinji. Vamwe vavo ndinoziva kuti vaizova nemisha yechipiri. Vamwe vavo vanoshandisa ndege dzebhizimisi. Vachadya zvinhu zvakawanda. Saka inopindirana zvakanyanya nemari.
Uye saka, chinondinetsa pano ndechekuti kana isu tichiedza kugadzirisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze uye kuderedza kuburitswa kwedu nekutarisa kune vese vanhu bhiriyoni manomwe nehafu, ndinofunga kuti hazvinzwisise kuti basa chairo rehutsi rinogara kupi, uye nekudaro, isu 'haisi kugadzira marongero anoda kugadziridzwa kune iyo chaiyo 20 muzana.
Saka, vanhu vazhinji vanoteerera ku show yako ikozvino, muU.S. kana kumwewo pasirese, vachange vari pakati nepakati kusvika kuzasi emitters. Uye kwavari, hongu, zvakakosha kuti vaite dzimwe shanduko. Asi kuchange kuine vanhu vanoteerera avo shoo vanoburitsa zvakanyanya. Uye ndeavo vedu avo chaizvo marongero anofanirwa kutariswa, kufambisa mhepo kubva mumararamiro edu. Uye isu tinofanirwa kuve nechokwadi, mukuita izvozvo, isu hatipise vanhu vanotonetsekana nehurongwa hwehupfumi hwazvino.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Ndivanaani vakanyanya kuburitsa kabhoni, Dr. Anderson?
KEVIN ANDERSON: Iwo epamusoro kabhoni emitters, zvakanaka, ivo vachave vakapfuma kwazvo munyika ino. Kubva pamaonero emamiriro ekunze, paunonzwa maAl Gores neDiCaprios vachitaura nezvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze uye iwe ukatarisa kabhoni tsoka yavo, vanozove zviuru nezviuru zvenguva kupfuura avhareji yeAfrica uye nemazana enguva yakawanda, pamwe, kunyange kupfuura vazhinji vekuAmerica. Saka, rudzi irworwo—munoziva, vakapfuma zvikuru ndivo vanobudisa mhepo zvikuru.
Asiwo ndinofunga purofesa akaita seni, varairidzi vakuru mumayunivhesiti, vanhu vanonyanya kuda kuona sevakuru — mutauro watinoshandisa — mukuru mumasangano edu, mungava mumakambani kana muruzhinji kana kuti maprivate sector. , vanhu ava vachave vanobudisa mhepo zvakanyanya. Saka, ndinoreva, handisi kuzotaura chero pamusoro pevatapi venhau, asi zvirokwazvo vamwe vevatapi venhau vandinoziva, ivowo vamiriri vepamusoro. Saka, ndiyo iyo yepamusoro echelons yevanhu.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Uye maererano nenyika?
KEVIN ANDERSON: O, maererano nenyika, zvakanaka, pamwe iyo mitter yakakura ikozvino iChina, ichiteverwa neU.S. Asi munyika dzose dziri mbiri idzi, hongu, pane musiyano mukuru pakati pezvinobudisa zvakanyanya mukati menyika iyoyo uye zvinyoro zvishoma mukati menyika iyoyo.
Saka, nyika mbiri huru dzinoburitsa, zvakadaro, iUS neChina, uyezve zviri pachena kuteverwa neEuropean Union.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Saka, iwe unogona kutaura here nezve izvo US yakatarisana nayo izvozvi, iyi monster hurricane inorova Panhandle? Kana iwe ukatarisa mishumo yemamiriro ekunze, uye ma network ari, iwe unoziva, panguva yakadai-inowedzera kutora nguva yakawanda yenhau ndiyo mishumo yemamiriro ekunze, nekuti kana isu tiri kutaura nezvemoto wemusango muCalifornia kana aya madutu makuru mumhepo. Carolinas uye zvino anogona kurova Florida neAlabama - Alabama, nyika yese yakanzi mamiriro enjodzi - hapana kana kutaurwa nemeteorologists - uye handisi kutaura kana Fox, ndiri kutaura. MSNBC uye CNN-yekubatana pakati peaya madutu ari kuwedzera chisimba uye kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze. Pane imwe here? Uye unogona kuzvitsanangura here?
KEVIN ANDERSON: Zvakanaka, pane hukama zvechokwadi. Zvatakaita nekuisa kabhoni dhaikisaidhi yakawanda mumhepo takaita kuti mhepo idziye. Mune mamwe mazwi, takaisa simba rakawanda mumhepo. Simba iroro richatamba maererano neseti yese yezvakasiyana, zvakanyanya kunyanyisa mamiriro ekunze.
Iye zvino, kana dutu iri rinokonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze hazvibviri kutaura, asi zvinowanzoitika ndezvekuti isu tiri kuwedzera kana kuwedzera simba mumhepo iyi, mune izvi zvakanyanya mamiriro ekunze. Uye izvi, izvo zvatinodaidza mutauro wakasarudzika wekutaura, patiri kuyedza kuti, "Chiitiko ichi chiitiko chekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze?" tiri kuita zvirinani nekunzwisisa izvozvo. Uye zvechokwadi pane humbowo hwakawanda hunoratidza kuti mamwe emamiriro ekunze akanyanya kuoma ataona akawedzera zvakanyanya nekudziya kwataisa mumhepo kubva mukupisa kwedu mafuta ezvisaririra uye kuburitswa kwekabhoni. diokisi.
Saka, ini ndisingakwanise kutaura nezvechamupupuri ichi ndoti, “Dutu iri rakakonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze,” kuoma kwechamupupuri ichi uye kuoma kwezvimwe zviitiko zvatakaona mumakore achangopfuura zvichiwedzerwa nenyaya dzekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, nekupisa kwatinoita mafuta efossil. Uye nyanzvi dzemamiriro ekunze dzinofanirwa kunge dzichigadzira chinongedzo chakajeka pavanenge vachikurukura nyaya idzi panguva yemamiriro ekunze mukati meU.S.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Iwe unotaura nezve izvo zvinodiwa, Muzvinafundo Anderson. Chirevo chinoti hapana yakanyorwa nhoroondo yemuenzaniso wehukuru hwekuchinja kunodiwa. Wataura nezve Marshall Plan. Unorevei, chirongwa chitsva cheMarshall?
KEVIN ANDERSON: Huye, Chirongwa cheMarshall chaive zano remaune mushure meHondo Yenyika Yechipiri yekuyedza nekuvakazve Europe mushure mekunge zvave pachena kuti yakabhombwa zvakaipisisa uye yaparadzwa, zvese mumasangano, asi zvakanyanya mumuviri, panguva yehondo. Saka ndiri kutaura kuti ingangove dimikira riri padyo, fananidziro yatinayo kuchiyero chedambudziko ratiri kutarisana naro kuti decarbonize, kusuduruka kubva kufossil-based energy system kuenda kune zero-carbon energy system, uye ita izvozvo mukati menzvimbo dzakapfuma dzepasi mukati memakore angangosvika makumi maviri, uye pamwe makumi matatu kana matatu nehafu nehafu kumatunhu ane hurombo zvishoma epasi.
Saka, isu hatisi kuzozviita kuburikidza nemitengo midiki michina, kuburikidza nekungotora misika. Zvichada kupindira kwehungwaru nehurumende kuti dziite mazinga anodiwa ekuchinja. Zvino izvo zvinonzwika pakutanga zvinonetsa, uye zvechokwadi zvichave zvakadaro. Asi ini ndinofunga kune zvakare-kune rondedzero yakanaka kumashure kweizvi, mukuti shanduko iyi, shanduko iyi, kune zero-carbon simba system ichauya nemikana yakawanda yebasa, kwenguva refu, mikana yebasa yakachengeteka, kwete kuvaka zviteshi zvemagetsi zvakaderera-kabhoni, asi muchirongwa chikuru chekuisa magetsi icho chichave chakakosha uye mukudzoreredza-nemamwe mazwi, kugadzira zvivakwa zvedu zvekuvaka zviripo, izvo zvatichange tichishandisa kwemakore makumi maviri, makumi matatu, makumi mana anotevera-kuita izvozvo. kuvaka zvivakwa zvakakodzera muzana remakore rechi20, saka unoda simba shoma kuti udzise kana kuti utonhodze, uye inzvimbo yakachengeteka zvikuru kuva mairi sezvo mamiriro ekunze ari kuramba achichinja, izvo pasina mubvunzo kuti zvichadaro. Kunyangwe tikamisa kuburitsa nhasi, tichaona imwe shanduko yemamiriro ekunze.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Iwe wakashora IPCC yekumanikidza kuraira kwayo kuti ienderane zvakatsvinda mukati meiyo yazvino modhi yehupfumi. Unogona here kutsanangura? Ndinoreva, kune vamwe, kuve nemushumo wakadai seuyu zvinongonetsa, nekuti isu tinogara munyika, muUnited States, uko mutungamiri wenyika anoramba kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze anodada, munoziva, anoidaidza kuti chitsotsi cheChinese. Uye saka, kuve nechero mhando yeshumo seizvi-asi iwe uri mutsoropodzi weshumo mune mamwe maitiro.
KEVIN ANDERSON: Zvakanaka, zvirokwazvo. Nepo ini ndichifunga kuti ishumo rakanaka chaizvo mukuyedza kunzwisisa maitiro ari pakati pe1.5 ne2 madhigirii centigrade ekudziya, kana zvasvika kune zvatinofanira kuita nezvazvo, ndinofunga, zvakare, inotya kunyatso tendeseka. Uye kupihwa kwakanyatsoita chirevo chesainzi, ndinofunga basa redu sesainzi uye sevadzidzisi nderekutaura sezvazviri, kwete kuripenda kana kutapira piritsi kuti riwedzere kuyevedza.
Saka, zvandinotaura pano ndezvokuti-uye hazvisi chete nemushumo uyu. Inoramba ichibuda kunze IPCC. Saka, isu takanyatsonanga uye takatendeseka nezvedivi rekuita, kana zvasvika kune izvo zvatinofanira kuita pamusoro peizvi, tinomhanya tichitya. Hatidi kutyisidzira vezvematongerwo enyika kana veruzhinji. Hatidi kusuduruka kubva kurudzi rwesimba masisitimu atinawo nhasi. Saka isu tinogara tichiedza kuita yakafara mhando yemassage iyo chinzvimbo kwakabva, saka kuwedzera shanduko, kana uchida.
Uye izvo zvandiri kutaura ndezvekuti, chaizvo, kana iwe uchinyatso tarisa nhamba dziri kumashure kweshumo, tarisa nhamba iyo sainzi inobuda nayo, saka isu tiri kutaura nezve shanduko yakakwana musimba redu resimba. Uye izvo zvichakumbira mibvunzo yakakosha nezve mafambisiro atinoita hupfumi hwedu. Uye zvakare, iwe unogona kutendeuka woti, "Zvakanaka, izvo zvinoita sekunge zvakatonyanya kureba kubva kuhurongwa hwehupfumi hwatinahwo." Asi isu tinofanirwa kurangarira kuti angove makore gumi ikozvino kubva padambudziko remabhanga, uye nzvimbo zhinji dzepasi dzichiri kutambura nemhedzisiro yedambudziko rekubhanga. Saka chimiro chehupfumi chazvino chakanetsa mukati memari yayo, kana uchida.
Saka ndinofunga kuti iyi yave iri mukana chaiwo, watiri kurasikirwa iye zvino, kugadzirisazve hupfumi ihwohwo kune hupfumi hwakakodzera nzanga, kwete nzanga inokodzera hupfumi. Uye ini ndinofunga vanogadzira mitemo-kana kuti, vadzidzi vachangobva kutya izvi, zvekuve vakatendeseka pane zvatinoudzwa nenhamba dzedu pamusoro pemitengo yeshanduko yatinoda uye nemafambisirwo atinofanira kuita budiriro yenharaunda yedu kubva kuvaka dzimba dzechipiri. kumapurofesa kana majeti ega ega kana kuti mayati ega ega kana kuti motokari huru dzinodhonza nemavhiri mana—kubva pairi kuenda pakuvaka zvifambiso zvevanhu vose, kuisa magetsi, dzimba dzakavandudzwa dzevanhu vose. Saka, iko kuchinjika kweiyo simba rinogadzira, zviwanikwa uye basa, kubva, kana uchida, humbozha hwemakumi maviri muzana kuenda kune yakakosha yakaderera-kabhoni maturakiti edu tese.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Dr. Anderson, mhedzisiro yaTrump kudhonza U.S. kubva muParis Agreement? Isu takangove nechikamu paBrazil. Mumhanyi wepamberi, Jair Bolsonaro, uyo muenzi wedu akadana akavhurika fascist, mumiriri wekurudyi-kurudyi, akavimbisa kuti achabuda muChibvumirano cheParis, uye achabvisa Ministry of Environment yeBrazil, iyo vezvemamiriro ekunze. kutya kwaizotungamirira kukuparadzwa kwemasango eAmazon. Pfungwa dzako pane zvese Bolsonaro naTrump?
KEVIN ANDERSON: Zvakanaka, ivo vakajeka, kubva pakuona kwesainzi-uye ini ndingapikisawo, pamwe kubva pakuona kwetsika-havana zvachose kuenderana nezviri kutaurwa nekuongorora kwedu. Ini zvakare ndinofunga isu tinofanirwa kungwarira zvakanyanya kana tichiona aya akanyanyisa manhamba-uye ese ari maviri aya, ndinofunga, iwo chaiwo manhamba akanyanyisa-tinofanirwa kurangarira kuti iwo ruzha rudiki pane system. Iyo general trend line inonyanya kuzivikanwa kuti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze inyaya yakakomba. Kunyangwe iyo data yekuvhota muStates inoratidza izvi. Handisati ndaona data kubva kuBrazil, saka handina chokwadi. Saka tiri kuona zviitiko zvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, uye vanhu vari kufunga kuti iyi inyaya yakakosha.
Nekuti vamwe vedu pamwe havawanzo kujeka vanhu vari kutungamira nyika dzedu havagone kuzvinzwisisa kana kufunga kuti vane hwaro hwezvematongerwo enyika vanofanirwa kukwidza kune avo vasingade kunzwa iwo meseji, ndinofunga isu vamwe hatifanirwe. mhanya uchivatya. Tinofanira kungopeta simba redu. Uye chokwadi, Mutungamiri Trump pavakafunga kubuda muChibvumirano cheParis, icho, chokwadi, haasati akwanisa kuzviita asi kuronga, maChinese nemaFrench vakabva vaenda mberi ndokuti, "Zvakanaka, tichaedza kuita. kumwe kuedza kuripa.” Uye isu tinoonawo muUS meya mazhinji achiti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze ichiri nyaya yakakosha. Saka, iyo U.S. haisi hudzvanyiriri. VaTrump havagone kutaura kuti huwandu hweUS huchaita sei. Hongu, akakosha, uye ane simba, asi ndozvakaitawo mameya.
Saka zvakafanira kune isu tose tinoziviswa zvakanyanya nesainzi, uye, ndingapokana, neruzivo rwakawanda, rwetsika uye rwunofambira mberi pakuongorora kwedu - zviri kwatiri kuti tiwedzere kuedza kwedu uye kuve nechokwadi chekuti tinofamba. mugwara chairo uye kwete kumhanya uchitya maTrump enyika ino. Kune zvakawanda zvavo. Vachauya, uye vachaenda. Asi iyo nyaya yese yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, iyo fizikisi yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, yavepo kuti igare, zvisinei nekufemereka kwemutungamiri wenyika.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Uye muminiti ino yekupedzisira, ramangwana rinotaridzika sei? Zvinhu zvinogona kuipa sei, kana tikaenderera mberi nekosi iyi?
KEVIN ANDERSON: Zvakanaka, mafambiro ari kuita zvinhu panguva ino, ndinofunga zvine musoro kufunga kuti tiri kuenda kunosvika madhigirii mana ekudziya muzana rino rose. Izvozvo zvaizoparadza chose. Ingorangarira, mutsauko uripo pakati pezvino neIce Age ungangoita madhigirii mashanu, saka tiri kutaura nezve shanduko dzaingoitika pamusoro pemakumi ezviuru zvemakore zvichiitika kweanopfuura makore zana. Uye makore ane zana, mune mamwe mativi, anonzwika senguva refu, asi vazhinji vavanhu vanoteerera ikoku, vana vavo vachave vachiri vapenyu mumakore ane zana, uye zvamazvirokwazvo vazukuru vavo vachava. Makore zana anongova mangwana, chaizvoizvo, muzvinhu zvakawanda.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Uye nyika yaizoratidzika sei?
KEVIN ANDERSON: Uye izvo zvatinoita nhasi zvinovhara muzvivako.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Uye nyika yaizoratidzika sei?
KEVIN ANDERSON: Eya, tichave tichiona nzara huru zvikuru—nzara yakawanda zvikuru, kusanaya kwemvura, mafashamo, kuchinja kwezvokudya. Ndinofunga kuti tichazotanga kuona kusawirirana kwakawanda mukati menharaunda, uye zvinoreva kuti kune kusawirirana kwakawanda pakati penharaunda. Saka, tinoona kunyangwe-tinotarisa kuSyria. Siria zviri pachena kuti haina kukonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, asi makore gumi nemaviri ekusanaya kwemvura mudunhu iri ndiko kuri kuwedzera. Uye izvo zvine gore rimwe chete re-12 degree rekudziya.
Sezvo takananga ku4 madhigirii centigrade ekudziya, tiri kutaura nezvekupwanya akawanda eecosystems epasi anosvibisa zvirimwa zvedu, izvo zvinoita kuti mweya wedu utichenesere. Saka, iyi ipuraneti yakasiyana neiyo yatinogara mairi. Uye mhirizhonga ichazovapo ichave yakaipa kumarudzi edu, kuvanhu, asiwo zvechokwadi, hongu, kune mamwe marudzi mazhinji akapoteredza pasi. Uye ndosaka tichifanira kuita zvese zvatinogona kuti tibate kusvika 2 madhigirii centigrade-zvakanaka, kubata 2 madhigirii centigrade, uye chinangwa 1.5. Ndinofunga kuti zvinoratidzika zvakaoma zvikuru. Saka, ngatiitei zvose zvatinogona kuti tichengetedze tembiricha yakaderera sezvinobvira.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: Kevin Anderson, tinoda kukutendai nekubatana nesu, purofesa weZennström muhutungamiri hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze—
KEVIN ANDERSON: Mufaro wangu.
AMY MURUME AKANAKA: —paCenter for Environment and Development Studies, Uppsala University, uyewo sachigaro wesimba uye kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze paTyndall Center for Climate Change Research paYunivhesiti yeManchester muBritain, uko ari kutaura nesu zvino.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta
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“Oiri isingadhuri iri kupera kunyange sezvo kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kuri kuda kuuraya vanhu vane mamiriyoni zana panosvika gore ra2030. 87 Uye kuguma ikoko hakusi kungofa kwomunguva yemberi chete; zvinhu zvatove zvakasviba uye zvine chisimba kupfuura nakare kose, sezvo kurwisana kunobva kuAlberta kuenda kuEcuador kunodzokorora hondo yezana ramakore rechigumi nenhanhatu pakati peMarudzi eMarudzi nevanochera matongo, zvakare nezvinorehwa nepuraneti.”
(Jason Moore naRaj Patel - Nhoroondo yeNyika muzvinhu zvinomwe zvakachipa: Nhungamiro yeCapitalism, Nature uye Ramangwana reNyika.)
Foreword
NaPaul Gilding
Kwemakore mazhinji, nhamba diki yesainzi, nyanzvi uye varatidziri vakadaidzira kuti WWII-chikero chiunganidze kuponesa budiriro kubva munjodzi yemamiriro ekunze - kuyedza-kupfuura chero chinhu chakatsanangurwa mumakakatanwa emazuva ano ane hunhu. Gore rino, pfungwa yatanga kusimbaradza, nevamiriri vatsva vakaita saBill McKibben naBernie Sanders uye kutorwa neDemocratic Party muUS yekudaidzira kwekukurudzira mamiriro ekunze.
Sezvo kuunganidza kunotanga kupinda muchikamu chikuru, zvakakosha kuti tikurukure pamusoro pechinangwa ichi. Muna 2009, ndakanyora pamwe chete, naProfessor Jorgen Randers, iyo "One Degree War Plan" - yepasirese uye isinganyanye kutarisisa yepfungwa inotsanangurwa pano. Iyo One Degree War Plan yakaratidza kuti tinokwanisa kutema kuburitsa gasi rinopisa repasi rose kusvika zero mumakore makumi maviri todzoreredza mamiriro ekunze akachengeteka kuburikidza nekuedza kudonhedza kabhoni.
Kunyangwe zvakanaka kuti vanhu vave kusaina kune iyo pfungwa, zvakakosha kuti mhinduro yakadai ive yakavakirwa pane izvo zvinodiwa nesainzi. Chokwadi chakaoma ndechekuti mamiriro ekunze adzikira zvakanyanya kubva 2009 uye izvi zvinoita kunge zviri kukurumidza. Iko hakuna nguva yasara yeakawanda-makumi emakore ekuchinja mamiriro. Panguva ino yekunonoka zvibodzwa zvakavakirwa kutenderera 2050, kana kufona chete zero emissions (pasina kudhirowa uye kutonhora), zviri pachena kuti hazvina kukwana. Vanoisa panjodzi yekukundwa kusingafungidzirwe nekubvisa matanho chaiwo atinoda nhasi. Ndosaka ndichifara kuti The Climate Mobilization yakanyora iyi Victory Plan. Zvinoratidza zvinooneka kuti US ingabvisa sei kuburitswa kwegasi regreenhouse panosvika 2025, kubatsira mukuedza kwepasirese kudzoreredza mamiriro ekunze akachengeteka uye kudzoreredza overshoot yezvakatipoteredza kuburikidza nekuunganidza kukuru kweWWII-scale.
Zvakakosha kunzwisisa kuti izvi zvinorevei. WWII-chiyero chekusimudzira mamiriro ekunze hakusi "kuedza kukuru." Haisi purojekiti hombe kana yakakosha danho rekuita seApollo Chirongwa kana kunyange New Deal. Iyo inzira yakazara, yehupfumi-yakafara nzira iyo, kana ikaitwa nemazvo, inomiririra nzira chete yechokwadi yatingakunda dambudziko remamiriro ekunze. Kuunganidzwa kunodaidzwa mu "Chirongwa Chekukunda" kune simba uye kutsvaira zvakakwana kuti ipe dziviriro inoshanda mukutarisana nekukanganiswa kwemamiriro ekunze. Yakavakirwa zvakasimba musainzi yemamiriro ekunze epamusoro, uye inopa tarisiro yakadzama yezvirongwa zvinodiwa kuti zviitwe muchikamu chega chega. Inogona kunge isina chiyero chese uye ichaenderera mberi nekushanduka apo nzanga inotsvagisa nekugadzira chirongwa, asi inopa pfungwa yakajeka uye inoshanda yekuti maitiro akadaro anganyatsotaridzika uye anonzwa sei. Inotiratidza kuti tingakunda sei hondo kuti tiponese budiriro.
Pandakaburitsa "One Degree War Plan" muna 2009, iyo pfungwa chaiyo yekuita pachiyero ichi uye mune iyi maitiro akarambwa. Zvaionekwa sechinhu chinonakidza - chinenge chinonakidza - kuyedza kufunga. Mumakore kubva ipapo, vanhu vari kuuya zvishoma nezvishoma kune iyo pfungwa. Kunyangwe vachikurudzirwa nedambudziko revapoteri vekuEurope, zviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze zvakanyanya, marekodhi ekushisa kwepasi rose ari kuputswa kana kungokwira huremu hwehumbowo, vari kuuya kuzobvuma kuti haisiriyo chete mhinduro yakadaro inodiwa, zvakare zvino fungika.
Zvakadaro, paunenge uchiverenga chirongwa ichi mifungo mizhinji ichaitika kwauri, apo pfungwa dzako dzinoedza kuyananisa mukaha mukuru pakati pezvaunoverenga zvinodiwa uye chokwadi chanhasi. Iwe uchafunga kuti "zvisizvo" sei, kuti "haugone kufungidzira" vatungamiri vezvematongerwo enyika vanoita nenzira iyi kana kuti nharaunda yebhizimisi yebhizimisi "haizombofa yakabvuma" iyi nhanho yekuchinja kwehupfumi. Izvi zvisati zvatanga, ndinoda kumisa pfungwa imwe zvakajeka mukufunga kwako:
Kuunganidza pachiyero ichi ndiyo chete mhinduro ine musoro kune nhanho yehupfumi, chengetedzo uye yemagariro njodzi inokonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Chero ani anotarisa humbowo zvine hungwaru angagumisa kuti - uye vanyori venhoroondo vanotarisa kumashure voshamisika kuti sei zvakatitorera nguva yakareba kuti tizvigamuchire. Saka iva pachena - kuunganidza pachiyero ichi hachingodzivisiki, nemubvunzo wega uripo kana tatanga.
Zvakaoma kufungidzira? Ehe iri.
Asi usati waenda ikoko, unofanirwa kufungidzira imwe nzira. Pasina mhinduro iyi, tichaona kudzika kuburikidza nekuchinja kuri kuitika kwemamiriro ekunze kwakakonzeresa matambudziko nekunetsana kwemauto, kukurumidza kwemitengo, kuyerera kwevapoteri, nyika dziri kudonha uye matambudziko ezvekudya pasi rose apo nyika inowira mukudonha kwehupfumi nemagariro. Izvi zvinotoda kuti hurumende ipindire uye pamwe nehutongi hwehudzvanyiriri hutonge.
Netarisiro iyoyo iri kuitika, unonyatsofunga kuti tichamira pasina chatiri kuita kunze kwekucherechedza uye kutaura nezvekuoma kwekuita? Iye zvino izvo "hazvisizvo" uye kuti "handigone kufungidzira."
Sezvo vanhu vanosvika pakugamuchira iyi ndiyo sarudzo yebhinari yatinosangana nayo, tiri kuswedera pedyo nekuunganidza zuva rega rega. Ndakaona mhinduro yemamiriro ekunze ichishanduka zvishoma nezvishoma kubva mukupera kwema1980 - kutanga kubva panzvimbo yeMutungamiriri Mukuru weGreenpeace International uye kubva ipapo achifamba nenyika semunyori uye mutauri, pamwe nebasa rangu nevatungamiriri vemakambani makuru epasi rose. Strategic approach yekusimudzira. Mhinduro haina kumbobvira yashanduka nekukurumidza kupfuura mumakore mashoma apfuura.
Zviitiko zviviri zvichangobva kuitika zvinoratidza kukurumidza kuri kukura:
Mukupera kwaChikunguru, bato reDemocratic Party rakavhota zvakanyanya kutora mutauro wekuunganidza mupuratifomu yaro yepamutemo. Chikuva chinozivisa "njodzi yemamiriro ekunze pasi rose," uye inozvipira "kuunganidza nyika, uye kutungamira kuyedza kwepasirese kuunganidza nyika kuti dzigadzirise kutyisidzira uku pamwero usati waonekwa kubva Hondo Yenyika II." Ino inguva yakakosha - kwete nekuti izvi zvinovimbisa kuti Mutungamiriri weDemocratic anotevera achatangisa kuunganidza kwakadai - asi nekuti zvinounza pfungwa iyi mumakakatanwa makuru uye zvinogadzira hwaro hwekukurudzira mune ramangwana remaitiro. Ipapo Bill McKibben, izwi rinotungamira resangano reAmerican mamiriro ekunze, akaburitsa kushevedzera kwakazara kweWWII-chiyero chekugadzirisa mamiriro ekunze, umo anoti: "Tiri kurwiswa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze - uye tariro yedu chete ndeyekuunganidza sesu. yakaitika muHondo Yenyika II.”
Sezvo pfungwa yacho yava kugamuchirwa, vakawanda vanobvunza kuti, chii chichava chikonzero chechiito? Vamwe vanotenda kuti tinofanira kumirira nguva ye "Climate Pearl Harbour" kuti titange kuunganidza kweWWII-scale. Kudzidza kwangu nhoroondo kunopikisa izvi. Zvidzidzo zvenyaya dzakadai sekodzero dzevanhu, kusunungurwa kwemukadzi uye kupera kweuranda zvinotiyeuchidza kuti kuchinja kwechiyero ichi hakuitike kamwe chete. Ivo vanoshanduka, vasina kugadzikana - vachisundirwa mberi nekufamba kuri kukura kwevatsigiri vakazvipira - vasati vawana nguva yekufananidzira inogadzira shanduko. Asi idzo nguva, sekubhomba kwePearl Harbor kana kufora muSelma, Alabama - ndizvo chete, zviitiko zvekufananidzira zvinogadzira nguva dzezvematongerwo enyika dzinobvumira nzanga kuchinja. Ivo havazi honzeri yemhinduro asi kuti spike mune inoenderera uye inoshanduka maitiro.
Ndicho chikonzero ini ndiri mutsigiri mukuru webasa reClimate Mobilization (TCM) uye ndakafara zvikuru kupa mugwaro iri. Zvinogara zviri pamicheto yevazhinji panotangira pfungwa huru dzakadaro. Nepo vanhu vakaita seni vachinyora mapepa nemabhuku vachiisa pfungwa munzanga, zvinotora kufamba kwakasimba, senge TCM iri kushanda kuvaka, kuunza mazano kune chokwadi. Mumakore ayo maviri mapfupi ekuvapo, The Climate Mobilization yakawana budiriro inokatyamadza mukuunza kudiwa kweWWII-scale yekuunganidza mamiriro ekunze munzvimbo huru.
Chokwadi tichine chitsama chakakura chekuzadzisa tisati tanyatsosvika kubasa. Saka ndinoda kuvhara nekukurukura kuti Iyo Climate Mobilization, uye yakakura yemamiriro ekunze enjodzi inogona kuvaka rubatsiro runodiwa kuti kuunganidza uku kuve kwechokwadi.
Avo vane hanya zvakanyanya nezvenjodzi yemamiriro ekunze vanofanirwa kutsigira nenzira inoshamisa yatsanangurwa mupepa rino. Mushure mezvose, kana iwe uchitenda sezvandinoita, kuti kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunounza njodzi iripo kune budiriro, saka mukana wemhinduro yakadai inotsanangurwa pano unouya sekuzorodza kukuru. Tinogona kugadzirisa izvi! Uye heino mugwagwa wekuti sei. Zvisinei, pane chikonzero chakasiyana chekutsigira nzira, uye vateereri vakasiyana kune nharo. Uye iri ndiro zano rakakosha randiri kuda kukusiya naro.
Kushandurwa kwehupfumi kwakazara kunotungamirirwa nekukurumidzira kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kwakasiyana zvikuru neWWII nenzira yakadzama - iyo inoreva kuti tinogona kuvaka vabatsiri nekuda kwechikonzero ichi munzvimbo itsva uye dzakakosha.
Kuunganidza kweWWII kwakatangwa mukutarisana nenjodzi uye kwaida kuzvipira kukuru muhupenyu hwevanhu, mutengo wehupfumi uye hupenyu hwehupenyu kuti upindure. Yakanga iri ngwavaira yamaune asi iri madikanwa kudzivisa ngwavaira yakaipa zvikuru.
Kuunganidzwa kwemamiriro ekunze, nekupesana, kunogona kukonzera kudzikiswa kukuru mukurasikirwa nehupenyu, mabhenefiti makuru ehupfumi anosanganisira kuvandudzwa, tekinoroji uye kuwanda kwemabasa uye zvese zvichitisiya nehupenyu huri nani. Uye ichaita kudaro neanonakidza matekinoroji senge mota dzemagetsi nemabhatiri anobata nekufadza vanhu. Zvinozosiya mari yedu yemagetsi yadzikira uye inopa yakachengeteka zvakanyanya, maguta edu akachena, vanhu vazhinji vanoshanda, hutano hwedu huchivandudzwa uye nyika yedu yakabatanidzwa zvakanyanya nechinangwa chakafanana.
Chinangwa chakafanana ndicho chikuru. Vanhu vakararama kuburikidza neWWII kumberi kwemba - saka vanga vasiri kumberi vakatarisana nedambudziko revanhu - taura zvakadadisa nguva yacho. Pfungwa yekubatanidza chinangwa, nharaunda ichishanda pamwe chete kutarisana pasi uye kukunda kutya kwekunze kutyisidzira, kushanduka kwetsika kubva pakuzvitarisa uye kushandisa vatengi kuenda kune pamwe chete kutarisa uye chinangwa, zvakavasiya vachinzwa hupenyu hwavo hwaive nani, kufara uye kukosha.
Uyu mutsauko wakakosha unogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya nharo dzinoshandiswa - uye vangangove vanobatana navo - kuunganidzwa kwemamiriro ekunze.
Hupfumi hwepasi rose huri mumatambudziko akadzama. Kukura mumuenzaniso wezvino kuri kugaya kusvika pakumira. Kusaenzana uye kushaikwa kwekufambira mberi kwevepakati vekuMadokero kwakaisa hwaro hwekunyanyisa mune zvematongerwo enyika, xenophobia uye kuzviparadzanisa nevamwe. Saka zvakatiunzira zviitiko zvakaita saTrump, Brexit nemamwe mafambiro ezvematongerwo enyika anoenderera mberi nekutyisidzira hupfumi hwenyika. Mitemo yekugadzirisa kukura kweusimbe uku kwakonzera kuti njodzi dziwedzere zvemari uye mutoro wakakura wechikwereti - imwe hapana nzira yekubhadhara yechokwadi, nekuda kwekuti kukura kuri kuita husimbe. Kusagadzikana kunokonzeresa kunoumba hwaro husina kusimba uko kukanganisa kwekuchinja kusingadzoreki kwemamiriro ekunze kunosvika - kugadzira dambudziko rehupfumi nemagariro iro rinogona kukanganisa hurongwa.
Vakuru nevanoita mitemo vari kumonya maoko avo mukupererwa. Vanobvumirana zvakanyanya pamatambudziko asi havana mhinduro dzakakomba dzekukurudzira, kunze kwehumwe hwakatadza kuderera kwehupfumi. Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, kuunganidzwa kwemamiriro ekunze nenzira yakatsanangurwa mupepa rino kunopa nzira yakangwara yekumberi uye hwaro hwekuvaka mubatanidzwa wakakomba pakati peavo vane chekuita nekugadzikana kwehupfumi nezvematongerwo enyika, avo vanofemerwa nehunyanzvi uye mikana yebhizinesi nevaya vane hanya. nezvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze.
Saka paunoverenga bepa rino, ziva kuti humbowo hwesainzi nehupfumi hwenjodzi dzinounzwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze hunoda chimwe chinhu chiri pasi pezviri kurongwa pano. Izvo, pachazvo, zvinoruramiswa. Asi zvakare ziva kuti nzira iyi inogona kunyatsoonekwa senge yekuunganidza kuponesa hupfumi - uye kutaura chokwadi ipfungwa yakanaka yatinofanira kudaro.
Ndinorumbidza Ezra neThe Climate Mobilization neushingi hwavo mukutora chikonzero ichi uye ndinovimba vose vanoverenga izvi vachabatana nesu kubatsira kuti chikonzero ichocho chive chokwadi.
Paul Gilding ndiye munyori we "The Great Disruption: Mamiriro Emamiriro ekunze Achaunza Pakupera Kwekutenga uye Kuberekwa Kwenyika Itsva" (2011), munyori-mubatanidzwa we "The One Degree War Plan" (2009) naJorgen. Randers, uye aimbove director director weGreenpeace International.
Paul iShamwari paYunivhesiti yeCambridge's Institute for Sustainability Leadership. Ona chinyorwa chaPauro chazvino pa http://www.paulgilding.com.
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