Kubva pakatanga hutongi hwaTrump mwedzi mishoma yadarika kutyisidzira kurova kwekutanga kurwisa North Korea pamusoro pekuenderera kwayo bvunzo dzemissile, mubvunzo wekuti yakanyatso gadzirira kurwa hondo yave kutarisana nemamwe matambudziko mumutemo wekunze weUS.
Vezvenhau vanzvenga chero kuedza kwakakomba kupindura mubvunzo uyu, nechikonzero chiri pachena: Vatungamiriri vane chido chakakura mukutendeudzira hutongi hweNorth Korea hwaKim Jong-un kuti VaTrump vaizoraira kurova kwekutanga kana hutongi hukaramba huchiyedza nyukireya. zvombo uye intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Naizvozvo, midhiya yakawanda yakanzvenga kuchera zvakadzika mutsauko uripo pakati pemutemo chaiwo wekuramwa kwekutanga uye zano rezvematongerwo enyika rinoda kuisa kumanikidza kuPyongyang.
Kushandiswa kwekutyisidzira kwemauto kwe "diplomatic coerciation" chishandiso chakakosha chehurongwa hweUS mukubata nevadzivisi vasina simba zvekuti zvinototorwa sezvinei muWashington. Kunyangwe vamiriri vanga vakabatikana zvakanyanya mukutaurirana neNorth Korea vanotsigira kushandisa kutyisidzira uku sechikamu chehurongwa hwakakura hwekudyidzana. Robert Gallucci, mukuru weDhipatimendi reHurumende akataurirana nezve "Chibvumirano Chibvumirano" nevakuru veNorth Korea muna 1994, akanyora muemail kune Truthout, "Tinoda kuti Maodzanyemba anzwisise kuti zviito zvavo zvinogona kutungamirira US kuhondo yekudzivirira - yakachenjera kana kwete.โ
Kubatana pakati pehutongi hwaTrump hwekutyisidzira kwe "chiuto" uye kudzvanyirira kweUS kuNorth Korea kwakajeka kubva pazano rayo rekutanga rekuti inogona kurova kekutanga. Zano iri rakauya muna Kubvumbi 13, pakarepo pakupedzwa kwegwaro rekutonga kuNorth Korea, apo NBC Nhau. Zvinonzi kuti โvakuru vakuru vevasoriโ vakanga vataura kuti manejimendi โainge akagadzirira kutanga kuramwa mabasaโ kana vakuru vakuru โvakagutsikana kuti North Korea yave kuda kuita ongororo yezvombo zvenyukireya.โ Imwe nyaya muWashington Post yakabudiswa zuva rakatevera yakapa imwe vhezheni yakati siyanei: manejimendi "akagadzirira kupindura kune imwe North Korea bvunzo dzenyukireya" uye aive ne "mhando dzesarudzo dzaainawo" asi haana "kufonera mhinduro yake pachine nguva."
Zvisinei, mukuru mukuru wemauto asina kutaurwa nezita akaudza Associated Press zuva rimwe chete iro mutemo waive watenderwa neNational Security Council hauna kufungidzira kushandiswa kwesimba mukupindura bvunzo dzenyukireya kana missile, zvichiratidza kuti kubuda kwacho kunosanganisira kutyisidzira kwekufungidzira kana kutsiva kurwiswa kweNorth Korea. chikamu chekuedza kwakaoma pa "coercive diplomacy."
Kuenderera mberi nekusimbisa dudziro iyi zvizaruro zvekuti vakuru vePentagon vanokahadzika kuti kurova kwekutanga kurwisa North Korean missile nenzvimbo dzenyukireya kunogona kubudirira zvizere. Mukupindura tsamba kubva kuCongressman Ted Lieu (D-California), Rear Admiral Michael J. Dumont, mutevedzeri wemukuru weJoint Staff, anoshanda pasi pesimba reJoint Chiefs of Staff, akaita chizaruro chinoshamisa: Nzira chete ye "kuwana nekuparadza - nechokwadi chakakwana - zvese zvikamu zvezvirongwa zvenyukireya zveNorth Korea" ndeye "nekupinda pasi."
Mumwe mukuru asingazivikanwe mukuru wePentagon akaenda mberi, achiudza Harry J. Kazianis, mutungamiriri wezvidzidzo zvedziviriro paCenter for the National Interest, โHatizivi kuti zvombo zvenyukireya nezvikandwa zviri kupi. Period.โ Vamwe vakuru vePentagon vakasimbisa pfungwa imwechete kuKazianis. Vaya vanobvuma, izvo zvinokanganisa kuedza kutendeutsa North Korea kuti kurova kwekutanga kweUS hakugoneke chete asi kunogoneka kana kukaramba kuchienderera mberi, zvinojekesa kuti vatungamiriri vepamusoro vemauto nevemauto kuPentagon havatsigire kurohwa kwekutanga. policy.
Chikonzero chikuru chekusada kwePentagon kugashira sarudzo yakadaro, zvisinei, ndechekuti vatungamiriri vemauto vanonyatsoziva kuti North Korea inogona kupindura kurwiswa kwekutanga kweUS pachinangwa chayo chenyukireya neanoparadza artillery uye rocket kurwisa, South. Guta guru reKorea, Seoul. Maererano nemushumo weStratfor, mabhatiri ezvombo zveNorth Korea nemaroketi 300 mm, akavharirwa mujinga memakomo egranite kuchamhembe kwenzvimbo yakanga isingacharwi nehondo, aigona kupa โchitsama chakafanana chemutemo chakadonhedzwa nemabhomba 11 eB-52.โ Uye kunyangwe mauto emuchadenga eUS neSouth Korea aizotanga nekukasira kurwisa mabhatiri aya neanovhura, zvingave zvanyanya kunonoka kudzivirira vanhu vakakuvara zvakanyanya.
Kunyangwe izvi zvinoratidza pachena zvekupokana nemauto kuchengetedza kutyisidzira kwekutanga kweUS, vamwe vakuru vakuru vekutonga kwaTrump vakatsvaga kuchengetedza kutyisidzira uku. Van Jackson, avo vaive director weKorea muHofisi yeMunyori weDziviriro kubva 2009 kusvika 2014 uye zvino ari kudzidzisa paVictoria University kuWellington, New Zealand akaudza Truthout kuti vanhu vakuru mukutonga kwaTrump vanotenda kuti United States inofanirwa kuita chero chinhu. zvakakosha kumisa kusimudzirwa kweNorth Korea kwechipotsera chinokwanisa kusvika kuUnited States nechombo chenyukireya. "Mabviro angu ari kundiudza kuti munhu wese ari muhutongi kunze kwaTillerson naMattis vanotenda kuti, kana North Korea iine kugona, vachaishandisa," akadaro Jackson mubvunzurudzo.
Kubvumirana pakati penyanzvi dzeNorth Korea muhutongi hwaObama kwanga kuri kwekuti North Korea yaitsvaga zvombo zvenyukireya senzira yekuona kuti hurumende irarame, sekureva kwaJackson. Asi ikozvino, anodaro, National Security Adviser HR McMaster naMat Pottinger, director weNational Security Council kuAsia, vatora maonero akasiyana zvakanyanya. "Vanoti North Korea haikanganisi, saka kusimudzira kwayo ICBM hakufanirwe kubvumidzwa," akadaro Jackson.
Jackson anobvuma kuti Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, anopokana nesarudzo yeUS yekutanga kurova North Korea, asi anotya kuti McMaster naPottinger vakunda Trump pagakava ravo. Izvi zvinotsanangura kuti sei hutongi hwaTrump hwakatora danho rekuti haizotaurirana neNorth Korea kunze kwechikonzero che denuclearization yakakwana. Vazhinji vevamiriri vezvekuchengetedzwa kwenyika vanoona kudiwa kwakadaro sekusingabviri kuwana, kunyanya sezvo Pentagon isingatomboziva kuti zvombo zviri kupi.
Kunyangwe paaisimudzira pfungwa yekuti North Korea yaisazodziviswa kana yangosvika kuUnited States, zvisinei, McMaster anonzi aipokana kuti hutongi hwacho hwaigona kudziviswa kupindura kurwiswa chaiko kweUS panzvimbo dzayo dzemakomba. Aimbove mukuru weDhipatimendi reHurumende Mark Fitzpatrick, iye zvino mukuru wehofisi yeWashington yeLondon-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. akacherechedza musi waNovember 8, kuti mutsara wehondo wakatorwa naMcMaster neWhite House wakanga wakavakirwa pa "fungidziro yekuti North Korea yaisazopindura zvine simba" kurwiswa kweUS pakuedzwa kwayo uye kuvhura zvivakwa, "nekuti yaizoziva kuti icharasikirwa nezvose. muhondo yaizotevera.โ Fitzpatrick akacherekedza, zvisinei, kuti mumiriri wemumiriri weNorth Korea muLondon, Thae Yong-ho, akange ayambira kuti mhinduro yeNorth Korea kune chero kurwiswa, "zvisinei nekuti idiki sei," ichave "inotyisa."
Hutongi hwaTrump hunogona kutsvaga kuwedzera kudzvanyirira kuNorth Korea kuchiri kuenderera mberi nekuita imwe kana kupfuura kugadzirira - asi ipfupi - hondo. Semuenzaniso, inogona kuunza mamwe mauto epasi eUS muSouth Korea kana Japan. Nekudaro, hutongi hweNorth Korea hunogona kududzira kufamba uku sechiratidzo chekuti US irikuda kurwisa nekupinda kuchamhembe, nekuti izvo zvingaite senge chiricho chinangwa chekufambisa zvigadziriso munhandare. Sekureva kwaJackson, maNorth Koreans akaudza vamiriri veUS panguva yedambudziko ra1994 kuti vakanyatsodzidza kufamba kwemauto makuru eUS mukugadzirira Hondo yekutanga yeGulf muna 1990-91, uye vakayambira kuti vaizopindura danho. seuyo ari mudunhu ravo nekutanga kurwisa kwavo kwekutanga.
Izvo hazvisati zvave kugona kuziva chokwadi kana hutongi hwaTrump huri kuda kutanga kurova North Korea. Kutyisidzirwa kwepamutemo kwekuramwa kwakadaro kunogona kudzikiswa sezviri pachena kune hukama neyakaomesesa - kana yakashata - yehondo yepfungwa. Asi kumwe kumonyoroka kwemitemo yeUS kunogona kutarisirwa mumwedzi iri kuuya, uye chishuwo chekumanikidza Pyongyang chingave chakapawo kufunga kwaMcMaster uye, zvine njodzi, Trump pachake, pamusoro pekudzivisa mhinduro yehurumende iyoyo. kuramwa kwekutanga kweUS. Izvo zvakare zvinogona kuunza njodzi huru yeimwezve hondo isingakoshi uye inotyisa.
Gareth Porter mutori wenhau akazvimirira anoferefeta uye munyori wenhoroondo anonyora paUS national security policy. Bhuku rake razvino, Crisis Made: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare, rakabudiswa muna Kukadzi we2014. Mutevere pa Twitter: @GarethPorter.
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