Mutengo wemazai gumi nemaviri wakarova an pakati nepakati ye $2.70 munaJune, kubva pa$1.64 June apfuura. Zvichakadaro, galoni regasi rave kutenderera madhora mashanu, zvichidhura pakati pekufamba inenge $30 pavhiki. Maererano nevakawanda yazvino data yakabudiswa neDhipatimendi Revashandi, inflation yemitengo yezvinhu zvemazuva ese nemasevhisi yakasvika pa9.1% muna Chikumi - iyo yepamusoro-soro mumakore anopfuura makumi mana. Pamusoro pechinyorwa chezvinhu zvine mutengo mukuru kukwidzwa pane zvinodikanwa zvisingawaniki: rendi, chikafu nemafuta.
Nekuti mibairo haina kuenderana nekukwira kwemitengo (yakakura chete hafu yemutengo of inflation), uye mhuri dzine mari shoma dzinopedza mari yakawanda makota matatu Pamari yavanotambira pazvinhu zvavanoda, marwadzo ekukwira kwemitengo anowira zvakanyanya kune varombo uye vanoshanda, uye zvinokanganisa vanhu vane ruvara. Izvi zvinotevera muenzaniso wekare wakasakara. Sezvakataurwa nenyanzvi yezvehupfumi Diane Schanzenbach New York Times: "Vashandi vanotambira mari yakaderera, vashandi vane mwero wakaderera wedzidzo, Vatema nevashandi vebrown ndivo vekutanga kurasikirwa nemabasa uye vekupedzisira kuadzosa."
Kuwana inflation pasi pehutongi chave chinhu chakakosha kuMutungamiri Joe Biden, ane mvumo ratings nguva pfupi yadarika yakarova nzvimbo yavo yakaderera zvakadaro: 36% chete kubva munaChikunguru 6 - vachikwikwidzana naDonald Trump. Kunyangwe pakati pemaDemocrats, kubvumidzwa kwemutungamiri weBiden kwakadzika kusvika pa69%, zvichidzika zvakanyanya kubva pa85% zhizha rapfuura. Hupfumi hwaramba huchinetsa kwemavhiki makumi mana nematatu achimhanya.
Asi Biden ari kuvimba neFederal Reserve kuti ivhure inflation, pane kumisa chero marongero ekuchengetedza homwe dzevashandi. Maererano ne Politico, "VaBiden vakazivisa 'laser focus' yavo pakukwira kwemitengo vachisangana kuWhite House nasachigaro weFed Jerome Powell ... kudzikira kwemari.”
Mushonga unopiwa neFed ndiwo muchetura wakafanana wawakambove nawo pasherufu kwemakumi emakore - kukwira mitengo yemubereko kuti "utonhodze" hupfumi. Iyi nzira inyaya yemishonga yakaipisisa kupfuura chirwere. Kudzikamisa hupfumi ishoko rekusimudzira hupfumi hwenyika, zvichikonzera kushaikwa kwemabasa uye kudzikira kwesimba rekutaurirana kwevashandi. Kukwira kwechido chekufarira kune simba re "kutonhorera" hupfumi, nokuti vanoita kuti zvive zvakanyanya kukwereta mari, uye naizvozvo zvinoderedza kudyara mukugadzira. Izviwo, zvinotungamirira kukuderedzwa kwesimba rinobereka zvibereko, mabasa anowanika mashomanene, uye kuwedzera kwourovha.
Vazhinji vezvehupfumi vakanyanya kufungidzira kuti kunyangwe zvinhu zvekunze - senge denda-rinokonzeresa kugovera keteni chokeholds - zvichikonzera kukwira kwemitengo muhupfumi, chero inflation inoramba iripo inokonzerwa nekushaikwa kwemabasa. Musika wakasimba wevashandi unoreva kuti vashandi havagone kutsiviwa zviri nyore, uye nekudaro vanonakidzwa nehukuru hwekutaurirana, izvo zvinozotungamira kumihoro yakakwira. Mihoro yakakwira iyi inopa vanhu vanoshanda mari yakawanda yekushandisa, zvichikwidza kudiwa kwezvinhu. Uye mabhizinesi anotarisa kukwidza mitengo kuitira kuti apfuure kukwira kwemitengo yemuhoro kune vatengi.
Idi rokuti mihoro haina, kutaura idi, kufambirana nokukwira kwemitengo inofanira kuva chikonzero chokupanikira. Zvakadaro the Wall Street Journal nechivimbo anotsanangura:
[D] ynamics [yemusika wakaoma wevashandi] ari kufambisa kukura kwemihoro, zvichiwedzera kukwira kwemitengo. Kuwana kwakasimba mumihoro uye kuhaya kuri kupinza mari yakawanda mumaakaundi ekumabhanga eAmerica, zvichisimudzira kudiwa sezvo inflation ichibvisa simba rekushandisa kune vakawanda. Zvichakadaro, kukwira kwemitengo yevashandi kunobva mukushaikwa kwevashandi kuri kuita kuti vashandirwi vakawanda vakwidze mitengo.
Kubva munaKurume, Fed yakakwidza mitengo yemubereko (kuburikidza nebhenji yayo federal-funds rate) katatu, kusanganisira 0.75% mwedzi wapfuura - iyo yakanyanya mubereko yakakwira mumakore makumi maviri nemasere. Zvinoratidza huwandu hunomwe hwekuwedzera gore rino hunogona. Hatizive kuti Fed ichaenda kupi, kana kuti kuderera kwehupfumi kuchakonzera sei. Asi rumblings a kuuya mutsauko vari kukura. Mumavhiki mashoma apfuura, Powell akadzokorora kusimbisa kuti Fed icharamba ichisimudza mitengo kusvikira inflation iri pasi pesimba, kunyange kana izvi zvichireva kukonzera kuderera.
Achitaura pamusangano wepagore weEuropean Central Bank, Powell akati, "Pane ngozi here isu tingaenda kure? Zvechokwadi pane ngozi. Kukanganisa kukuru kuita - ngatizviisei saizvozvo - kutadza kudzoreredza kugadzikana kwemitengo. "
"Maitiro acho angangosanganisira mamwe marwadzo," Powell akazowedzera, "asi kurwadziwa kwakanyanya kungave mukutadza kugadzirisa kukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira uye kuchibvumira kuramba."
Parizvino, kukura kwebasa mumwedzi mishoma yapfuura kwakaramba kwakatsiga. Asi chinangwa chezviito zveFed chinoramba chiri kuderedza kukura kwehupfumi, panguva iyo mari yakaunganidzwa panguva yedenda yakaderedzwa, uye kadhi rechikwereti dziri kusvika kurekodha dzakakwirira. Kukwira kwemubereko panguva imwe cheteyo uye kungangorasikirwa nemabasa kune rumwe rutivi, nepo mitengo nemitengo yekurarama zvichiri kukwira nerumwe rutivi, zvichava mutoro unorema pavanhu vanoshanda. Chokwadi, nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinotivimbisa "shanduko" yakaoma zvakanyanya, sezvo inflation inowanzotora nguva yakareba kuti idzike mushure mekuderera.
kupa iyo Fed Yemahara Kutonga
Rutsigiro rwaBiden zvisinei, iyo Federal Reserve yakasununguka kuita pasina gwara kubva kuWhite House kana Congress. Kuzvimirira uku kunowanzo kurumbidzwa senzira yekudzivirira kudzvinyirirwa kwezvematongerwo enyika, zvichipa Fed chinangwa cheutariri hwehupfumi. Muchokwadi, "kuzvimirira" inzvimbo yakanaka kune iyo nyika inopokana isinga davirire, idiki yedemocracy institution. Nepo zvese zvese uye mutsara wezve mabhiri ekusimudzira mabhiri akakakavadzana uye nekutaurirana pamusoro - kunyangwe mhedzisiro ikaramba isina demokrasi - iyo Federal Reserve inotora sarudzo dzakakosha pasina kana kunyepedzera nhaurirano yeruzhinji kana kutarisa.
Uye "chinangwa" cheutariri hwehupfumi hachisi chokwadi chinonzwisisika. Economics nezvematongerwo enyika hazvina kumbobvira zvave masangano akaparadzana, uye mubvunzo wekukwira kwemitengo hausi iwowo. Sezvandanyora kune imwe nzvimbo, inflation inogara iri mubvunzo wezvematongerwo enyika - iyo kirasi inowana nemari yaani. Ndiani anobhadhara mitengo yemitengo inozopedzisira yava mubvunzo wekuti ndiani anowana chikamu chipi chemari yenyika. Kukwira kwemugove wemuhoro kunodzvanya chikamu chemubhadharo wemari, uye zvinopesana.
Vaongorori vezvehupfumi vanodzivirira zvakanyanya mukana wekugadzirisa inflation kuburikidza nekugadzirisa purofiti kwete mihoro. Ko kana pachinzvimbo chekukwidza mitengo, mabhizinesi akamanikidzwa kuita nemari shoma shoma? Kana kuti kana panzvimbo pokukwidza mubereko kuti udzivise kukura kweupfumi, kudzorwa kwemitengo kwakanangwa uye kugarisana kwezvinodiwa neveruzhinji zvakashandiswa kuderedza mutengo wekurarama? Mushure mezvose, makambani eUS haasi kungochaja yakawanda, ari kuitawo purofiti yepamusoro. Makambani eS&P 500 (makambani makuru emunyika) ari kukwidza mitengo yavo 20% zvakawanda kupfuura mwero wekukwira kwemitengo yemitengo. Mari yavo yepurofiti (12.1% muna 2022) iri parekodhi yakakwirira. Mapurofiti mazhinji emakambani emafuta pagaloni regasi ari padanho rawo repamusoro munhoroondo.
Iyo Federal Reserve haisati ichipokana nekukwira kwemihoro, asi chete kusvika pari zvino kukwidzwa uku kuri mukati memamwe ma paramita asingakonzerese kukonzeresa inflation. Saka, sezvakaita Tim Barker, munyori wenhoroondo dzezvematongerwo enyika vakakavadzana, mitemo yeHawkish Federal Reserve kubvira kuma1970 “yakaita basa rakananga mukuderera kwechikamu chebasa kubvira kuma1970.” ("Mugove wevashandi" unoreva chikamu chemari yenyika inoenda kumihoro uye mihoro, pane purofiti.) Uye nepo kutendeuka kwakawanda kubva muna 2016 - kubvumira hupfumi kuti huwedzere kunyangwe huwandu hwekushomeka kwemabasa - hwakaisa hwaro hwekuwedzera. pro-labour mamiriro, kuedza uku kwakangobvumirwa kushanda kusvika pakusaisa mungozi inflation.
Mibereko yakaderera kweanopfuura makore gumi yakagadzira migariro yemitengo yakaderera yourovha kupfurikidza nokudyisa upfumi nechikwereti chakachipa. Asi zvakare, mumashoko aBarker, "yakavhura mahorizoni matsva kune angave anomiririra hurumende" nekudzikisa mutengo wechikwereti chehurumende, uye nekudaro mari inofambiswa nemagariro. Asi sekutaura kwakaita Barker gore rapfuura, kuchinjika uku mukuita kweFed kwaisava chibvumirano chevashandi kuwana chikamu chikuru chemari yenyika. Zvakanga zvakafanotaurwa chete pakufungidzira kuti sangano revashandi rakanga risina kusimba kuti riwane mibairo yakawanda, kunyange mumamiriro ezvinhu ehuwandu hwekushaya mabasa. “Kuedza kwazvino,” Barker akatsanangura, “kwakaitwa kuti kubvire nokuziva kuti vashandi vakanga varasikirwa nenyika—zvikurukuru, kuti vakanga varasikirwa nokukwanisa kuwedzera kana kunyange kudzivirira mugove wavo wemari yenyika. Chii chingaitika kana kushanda kwakasimba?"
The Federal Reserve's yakajairika playbook, kubvira kuma1970, yakaziviswa ne "monetarist" pfungwa dzakatanga kutsigirwa nehupfumi Milton Friedman. Friedman akataura kuti "mwero chaiwo wekushaikwa kwemabasa" uripo pazasi iyo inflation inotanga kubuda. Panogona kuve nekukakavadzana uye kutendeuka kuFederal Reserve kwakaitika kubva kuma1970s, asi vakangopokana kuti yakaderera sei mwero wekushaikwa kwemabasa unogona kubvumidzwa kuenda pasina njodzi inflation, kwete kana purofiti ingambopirwa kune yakakura yevashandi. ye economic pie.
Gore rapfuura, apo tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yakatanga kusimudza musoro, kutaura kwekudzosera kumashure kukurudzira kwehurumende kwanga kuchiri chinhu. kunze chinzvimbo. Asi sezvakafanotaurwa naBarker, gakava iri raizokurumidza kutonga zvakare:
[E] kunyangwe nehupfumi huchiri mamirioni emabasa anonyara kusvika padanho rayo rekutanga denda, kwatove nekuedza kwakarongeka kupfupisa kuwedzera uye kuzivisa kuyedza kukanganisa. Kusvika pari zvino, matunhu makuru akapokana nevashandirwi vanotambira mari shoma nenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinoshorwa, asi zvichemo zvavo zvichawana vateereri vakawanda pane imwe nguva mumakore mashoma anotevera.
An Imwe nzira
Muna 1977, Arthur Burns, uyo aiva sachigaro weFederal Reserve, Akataura kuvadzidzi vepaYunivhesiti yeGonzaga pamusangano wavo we "Founder's Day". Akavayambira nezvemaitiro "anovhiringidza" ekuti purofiti yeUS "isingagutsi," asi nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dziri kutarisisa dambudziko iri. Upfumi hwedu, akayeuchidza vateereri, "ichiri kunyanya hupfumi hunosimudzira purofiti umo, kusvika pamwero mukuru, chero chinoitika - kana chisingaitiki - zvinoenderana nemikana inofungidzirwa yepurofiti."
Dambudziko renguva refu ratinosangana naro rakafanana nezvakataurwa naBurns. A capitalist economy is, netsanangudzo, yakabatwa nhapwa kukuverenga purofiti. Izvi zvinokanganisa kana mari ichiyerera ichienda kumaindasitiri ari kuparadza pasi kana kuchengetedza hutano hwevanhu. Asi zvinotimanikidzawo kubata mhedzisiro yerollercoaster mumitengo, uye kuomerwa kwekuchengetedza yakaringana kugovera-uye-kudiwa mumaindasitiri.
Zvikonzero zvekukwira kwemitengo zvinogara zvakaoma kuongorora, kunyangwe mukuona kumashure. Uye dambudziko remazuva ano rekukwira kwemitengo, chokwadika, richiri kuitika. Asi vazhinji vezvehupfumi vanotsanangura kutsemuka kwekutengesa sekutamba basa rakakosha, zvirinani mukukonzeresa mamiriro aripo.
Mumwedzi yekutanga yedenda, apo nyika zhinji yaive pamba panguva yekuvhara, maindasitiri mazhinji akadzikira. Iwo mabhizinesi akaramba akavhurika akadzikisa huwandu hwekugadzira uye hesera. Hupfumi pahwakatanga kuvhurika, kukwira kudiwa kwakasanganiswa nehuwandu hwemari yakaunganidzwa, zvakakurumidza kufambisa kutengesa kwezvinhu zvese nemasevhisi uye zvakakonzera kuvharirwa mumaketani ekutengesa. Kana kupihwa kusingaenderane nekukwira kuri kudiwa, vatengi vanopokana muhondo yekubhidha zvinhu, zvichibvumira makambani kukwidza mitengo.
Zvinhu zvinoverengeka zvakatsigira inflation kupfuura izvo zvinokonzeresa zvekutanga. Iyo neoliberal penchant yekungoita-mu-nguva yekugadzira yakave nechokwadi chekuti zvinyorwa zvitete hazvigone kukurumidza kubatanidzwa. Zvino zviitiko chaizvo zvakaita sekupinda kweRussia nechisimba kuUkraine zvakaita basa mukuchengeta mitengo yemafuta yakakwira. Mitengo yemafuta, zvakare, inokanganisa dzinenge chikamu chese chehupfumi. Kusanaya kwemvura kuri kuwedzera kuri kuitawo kuti mitengo yezvirimwa ikwire. Zvichakadaro, sezvakaita Biden apo neapo akabvuma, kukwira kwemitengo kwechinyakare kunoita basa rinokosha. Makambani anotora mukana wekuwedzera kudiwa kukwidza mitengo zvakanyanya kupfuura mutengo uri kukura wezvavanoisa (zvese zvebasa uye zvekushandisa). Izvi zvinodyisa mu "profit-price" spiral, pane iyo inowanzotaurwa nezve "mubhadharo-mutengo" spiral.
Zvido zvevashandi zvinoitawo kuti inflation ikwire. Nyaya yekuti mibairo iri kusara kumashure kweinflation chiratidzo chakanaka chekuti muhoro hausi mutyairi mukuru. Asi zvakakura, pro-vashandi marongero senge denda era mabhenefiti, ayo ainyanya kutungamirwa nekushomeka kwete kutsigirwa. yakawedzera mitero, akaisa mari yakawanda mukutenderera uye nokudaro yakawedzera dzvinyiriro dzokukwira kwemitengo. Dai vaipihwa mari nemitero yakakwira - pamwe nechikamu cheshumba ichibhadharwa nevakanyanya hupfumi - zvaizova nyore kuchengetedza pasina kukanganisa inflation. Ndicho chinangwa chakakosha zvikuru. Iwo mabhenefiti aive akakosha, kwete chete kuchengetedza mamirioni edzimba, asi zvinoshamisa akadzikisa huwandu hwehurombo mukati mekuoma kukuru kwehupfumi.
Izvi zvakanaka zvakabudirira zvakakodzera kudzivirira uye kuwedzera. Kuti zvidaro, variruboshwe vachada kuti vose vapikise zvirevo zvekuti vashandi vanofanira kubhadhara kukwira kwemitengo, uye toisa pamberi pemhinduro dzedu pakugadzirisa inflation. Sekutanga, zvimwe vanofambira mberi mukati meDemocratic Party vari kudaidzira kuti kudzika kwezvikamu zveBuild Back Better, semuenzaniso, kudzikisa mutoro wekuchengeta vana uye mutengo wezvinodhaka. Kutora chinangwa pamitengo yedzimba kunofanirwa kunge kuri chimwe chinhu chakakosha chechirongwa chehupfumi chekuruboshwe. Chokwadi, the Wall Street Journal Zvinonzi kuti mazinga ekukwira kwemitengo anosiyana nedunhu, zvakanyanya nekuda kwemitengo yedzimba:
Inflation yaive yakanyanya kuSouth, pa9.2%, uye Midwest, uko mitengo yakakwira 8.8%. Vagari veTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater nzvimbo yeFlorida yakamedza kuwedzera kwe11.3% pamusoro pemwedzi gumi nemiviri yakapera muna Chivabvu, ichisundwa nechikamu nekukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yekurenda. Inflation yaingove 12% mudhorobha reNew York City, zvichikonzerwa nemutengo wakaderera wekurenda.
Kupfuura izvi zvinodikanwa zvechimbichimbi, zano renguva refu rinofanirwa kutarisisa pane zvakanangwa mitengo yekudzora, uye kusimudzira maindasitiri anoenderana nenyika semafuta. Sezve economist Doug Henwood ane vakakavadzana, kuwedzera mitero - zvirokwazvo kune vapfumi, asiwo pane yakagadzikana - inofanira kuva chikamu chezvimwe zvishuvo zvekugoverazve, kana tichida kuita kuti izvo zviwanikwa zvehupfumi zvirambe zviripo.
Pakupedzisira, boka re capitalist, rakasiiwa kumidziyo yaro, richabuda mudambudziko iri nekumanikidza marwadzo akawandisa kubva kuvashandi. Pamwoyo wechirongwa chehupfumi chekuruboshwe chinoda kuve nekunzwisisa kweinflation senzvimbo yekunetsana kwekirasi, uye kuronga rutivi rwedu zvinoenderana. Izvi zvinoda zvose zviri zviviri zvinodiwa nematongerwo enyika, uye sangano revashandi rinogona kuronga kuti riwane pundutso yehupfumi uye nekumanikidza kuti vashandi vabhadhare dambudziko ravasina kugadzira.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta