Mufananidzo naPetrenko Andriy/Shutterstock
Imwe kiyi yekupedza hondo muUkraine inogona kunge iri munzvimbo isingatarisirwe: Belarus. Musi waKukadzi 28, njere dzeUkraine dzakayambira kuti mauto eBelarusian aizopinda nechisimba cheRussia, asi mishumo yakarambwa nenjere dzeUS, uye mauto iwayo haana kuyambuka muganhu. Iye zvino tinogona kuziva chikonzero nei: kupesana kukuru mukati meuto reBelarusian.
Kutanga zvishoma kumashure. Kuratidzira kukuru kwedemocracy kwakazunungusa hutongi hwaAlexander Lukashenko muna 2020, mushure mekunge aba sarudzo kubva kumutungamiri anopikisa Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Lukashenko akadana Putin kuti atumire mauto eRussia kuti aparadze kuratidzira, uye kutyisidzira kwakamanikidza Tikhanovskaya kutizira kuLithuania. Vamwe vakuru vakuru vemauto nevechidiki vezera rekupinda muchiuto vakaendawo panguva iyoyo. Kubira kwaLukashenko jetliner yevagari vemo gore rapfuura kwakakonzera nyika zhinji kudzima ndege dzese kuenda kuguta guru reMinsk. Nguva pfupi yadarika akabvumira Russia kushandisa Belarus senzvimbo yekutandarira yekupinda kweUkraine.
Mumwe wevakuru vakuru veTikhanovskaya, Franak Viacorka, anosimbisa kuti Putin akanga aronga kuti mauto eBelarusian apinde muhondo yake (iyo Minsk inoramba). Asi hurongwa uhu hwakakanganiswa nekusiya basa kwevakuru vakuru vemauto, avo vakatiza munyika vakanobata vanopikisa vari muhupoteri. Zvakare, mazana evadiki veBelarusian vezera rekupinda muhondo vakatizawo vachiyambuka miganhu yakavharwa, izvo "zvine njodzi uye zvinodhura."
Viacorka akati, "Tinoziva kuti kune huwandu hwakanyanya hwekuora mwoyo pakati pevakuru muchiuto. Pamusoro pazvo, varwi vakanyoreswa vari kutiza miganhu yenyika vakaungana vachienda kunzvimbo ipi neipi inobvira, kusanganisira Russia, Kazakhstan, uye nyika dzeBaltic pane kuora mwoyo kukuru.
Akaenderera mberi achiti, โMumazuva achangopfuura, takaona dzvinyiriro iri kuramba ichiwedzera kubva kuvakuru vemauto kuti vasapindire mukurwisana kweUkraine. Kune vakuru vakuru vakatora zororo rekurwara, vamwe vakakumbira kumisa zvibvumirano zvavo nemauto, kunyange pamutengo wekubhadhara mari yose yebasa ravo rechiuto. Tiri kutaura pamusoro pezviuru zvemadhora.โ
Maererano naViacorka, "Dambudziko guru kwavari nderekuti havana nzira inoshanda yekusiya Belarus. Munguva yakapfuura, vangadai vakaenda kuGeorgia, asi ikozvino ndege dzese kubva kuBelarus dzakamiswa kwemwedzi mitanhatu inotevera. Iko hakuna ndege dzinoenda kuWestern Europe, uye zvakaoma kwazvo kuwana ndege kuenda kuIstanbul. Saka nzira chete yekukanganisa ndeyekuyambuka bhodha nenyika dzakavakidzana zvisiri pamutemo. Mapurisa mazhinji haasati agadzirira kuisa danho iri panjodzi. "
Viacorka yakapedzisa, "Belarus yakaita kuti zvivakwa zvemauto zviwanikwe kune vekuRussia, asi zvikamu zveBelarusian hazvisati zvapinda munharaunda yeUkraine. Zvakare, tiri kuona kuti zvikamu zvakamira padyo nemuganho neUkraine zvakadzoserwa kuzvigadziko zvadzo. Zvinoita sokuti chisarudzo chokubatanidza mauto eBelarusian mukurwa chakachinjwa nemhaka yedzvinyiriro inobva kudare repamusoro uye kuramba kwavarwiwo zvavo kurwa.โ
Muchiitiko chinoshamisa, Major General Viktor Gulevich, Chief of General Staff, vakanyora tsamba yekusiya basa kuBelarus Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, vachikurukura nezvekusada kwemauto kupinda muchisimba. Tsamba iyi (yakanyorwa pamhepo neaimbova Mutevedzeri weGurukota rezvekudzivirirwa kweUkraine, Alexander Nosov) yakati: โKuita basa rekutsanangura nevakuru vemauto hakuna kuburitsa. Ndine ushingi hwekufungidzira kuti kutsiva kwevakuru vemauto aya, avo vakatadza kuronga kuumbwa kwemapoka pasi, hazvizotipi mhedzisiro yatinoda. Nemhaka yezviri pamusoro apa, ndinokumbira chisarudzo chako pamusoro pokubvuma kurega kwangu basa.โ An chinyorwa nezvetsamba, iyo Minsk inoramba, yaive muLondon zuva nezuva ratidza (3-7-22).
Viacorka's indavhiyu yaive pazuva rimwe chete muTel Aviv inotungamira zuva nezuva Israeri Hayom (3-7-22), iyo yakashumawo kuti "vazhinji varwi veBelarusian - vakaenzana nemauto mashanu ehondo - vakabatana nevaUkrainian kurwisa maRussia. Bato re'mapato' revanopikisa hutongi hweBelarusian rakatumira vanhu varo munyika yese kuti vadzivise kuendeswa kwemauto eRussia mukati meBelarusโฆ "
Nyaya yacho yakawedzera kuti โmasangano anorwira kodzero dzevanhu akashuma kuti varume veBelarusian vane makore 18 kusvika ku58 vakanzi vazvinyorese kunzvimbo dzinopinza vanhu basa uye kusiya nhare dzavo nemapasipoti kuvakuru vakuru kuti zvivaomere kutiza. Sekureva kwenyaya iyi, vanosungirwa kuenda kumahofisi ekupinza vanhu basa pamwe chete nevemhuri yavo, avo vanonzi vacharangwa kana hama dzavo dzikasauya kana vadaidzwa kuzorwira nyika yavo.
Saka nzira yerunyararo muUkraine inogona kufamba neMinsk, asi kwete nekuda kwe2014-15 Minsk Accords pakati peRussia neUkraine (iyo yakafa apo Putin akapinda muUkraine). Kana kuratidzira kwevanhu vakawanda kuchikwira zvakare vachipokana nehutongi hwaLukashenko, panguva ino pamwe vachitsigirwa nevemapato kana kunyange vakapokana nemauto, anogona kusakwanisa kudana Putin kuti abatsire zvakare, sezvo mauto eRussia akavharirwa muUkraine. Zvinogona kunge zvisati zvaita kuti vanhu vekuRussia vabvise Putin kubva pachigaro, asi maBelarusian atosvika pedyo nekudzinga mumwe wake mudiki Lukashenko, uye anogona kuzviita zvakare.
Nekutarisisa kwese kweRussia pakutanga kurwisa muUkraine, kudzivirira kweBelarus pachayo kunenge kuri kuregeredzwa. Kana kupokana kwechiuto kana kumukira kutsva kuchikanganisa Lukashenko, mauto eUkraine anogona kufungidzira kurwisa kwakasimba munzvimbo dzemauto eRussia, kana kudzorera kumukira kweBelarusian. Maererano ne Reuters (3/10/22), Lukasjenko akaudza Ministry yake yeDefence kuti mauto eBelarus anofanira "kudzivirira chero kuedza - pamwe nemauto eUkraine - kugura mitsetse yeRussia uye 'kurova maRussia kubva kumashure," sezviri pachena zvichireva mukati meBelarus. pacharo.
Kana shanduko yakadaro muBelarus yakabudirira, inogona kunge iri shanduko yeUkraine. Hurumende itsva muMinsk ingangoraira mauto eRussia kuti abve munyika, achiramba Putin kumberi kwake kwekuchamhembe muUkraine. Kunyange Putin angave asingadi kutora zvose Ukraine neBelarus panguva imwe chete. Kudzingwa kwaLukashenko kungave chiratidzo chenyevero tsvuku kuna Putin kuti angangove anotevera.
Sezvo a geographer, Ndinogona kufungidzira kuti hurumende itsva muMinsk yaizowedzerawo geopolitical sarudzo dziripo munharaunda. Hazvina chokwadi kuti Belarus inganyorera kuve chikamu cheNATO, ichiisa panjodzi yekudzokera shure kubva kuMoscow, saka inogona kuzivisa kusarerekera, pasina NATO kana mauto eRussia anobvumidzwa. Kunyanya kuvimbiswa nekuchengetedzeka kumuganhu wake wekuchamhembe, uye akatarisana nehutsinye hugaro hweRussia, Mutungamiriri weUkraine Volodymyr Zelensky anogona kudonhedza chinangwa chake chekujoinha NATO, uye kubvuma kusarerekera sechikamu chekugadzirisa runyararo.
Kana zvakadaro, Belarus, Ukraine, uye (yatove isina kwayakarerekera) Moldova pamwe chete yaizoumba nzvimbo isina kwayakarerekera pakati peNATO neRussia, iyo inogona kuunza modicum yekugadzikana kuEastern Europe. Tinogona chete kutarisira, asi chero zvingazoitika, mikana yekupedza Hondo yeUkraine inogona kuwanikwa mumaguta makuru kunze kweKyiv neMoscow.
Zoltรกn Grossman inhengo yeFaculty in Geography and Indigenous Studies paThe Evergreen State College muOlympia, Washington, achidzidzisa pamharadzano dzemarudzi, mauto, uye zviwanikwa. Akadzidzisa makosi nemamepu kuEast-Central Europe, uye akaita midzi yemhuri muHungary. Webhusaiti yake iri pa https://sites.evergreen.edu/zoltan
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