"Kunyange zvazvo muvengi achiri nengozi uye basa rakawanda richiripo, mauto eAmerica neIraq akawana zvibereko vashoma vedu vangadai vakafungidzira gore rimwe chete rapfuura. Patakasangana gore rapfuura, vazhinji vakati kutakura mhirizhonga hazvibviri. Kurwiswa kwehugandanga kwakanyanya kwadzikira, kufa kwevanhu kwadzikira, kuuraya kwemapoka kwadzikiraโฆ Patakasangana gore rapfuura, al-Qaida yaive nenzvimbo dzinochengeterwa vanhu munzvimbo zhinji dze Iraki, uye vatungamiriri vavo vakanga vachangobva kupa mauto eAmerica kuti abude munyika yacho zvisina ngozi. Nhasi, iAl-Qaida iri kutsvaga nzira yakachengeteka. "
Iyi yaive mharidzo yaPresident George Bush yehondo mu Iraki mune yake yekupedzisira State of the Union kero kuCongress musi wa28 Ndira. Zviri kuedza kudzinga mhedziso dzake: ongororo ichangobva kuitika yakasimbisa kuti pakati pe11 Gunyana 2001 uye kutanga kwehondo muna 2003, Bush nevatanhatu vabatsiri vepedyo vakareva nhema pazviitiko zve935 nezve. Iraki's threat to the US (1). Asi panguva ino zvaanotaura, zvakatorwa nevezvenhau uye kunyangwe nemamwe maDemocrats, zvinoita kunge zvine hwaro hwechokwadi.
Maererano US mushumo, nhamba yevagari veIraqi vakafa nechisimba yakawira kubva kumusoro kwe3,000 munaNovember 2006 kusvika ku700 munaDecember 2007. Rufu pakati pemauto emubatanidzwa, avhareji ye100 pamwedzi pakupera kwe2006, yakakwira pa130 muna Chivabvu 2007 isati yadonha. kusvika ku20 pakupera kwegore. Kurwiswa kwakakomba (motokari dzakateyiwa, mabhomba ekuzviuraya) akadonha kubva ku130 muna Chikumi 2007 kuenda ku40 muna Zvita. Avo vakaurayiwa mumhirizhonga yemapoka (kunyanya pakati peSunni neShia) vakadonha kubva pa2,200 muna Zvita 2006 kusvika vangangoita mazana maviri muna Mbudzi 200. US manejimendi kuzivisa kubviswa zvishoma kwemauto e5,000 pamwedzi: maitiro aya atanga. Mauto eUS anotarisirwa kudonha kubva pamusoro pe170,000 kusvika 130,000 nezhizha rino (2).
Pakupera kwa2006 the US chinzvimbo mu Iraki yakakanganiswa zvakanyanya uye kukunda kweDemocrat musarudzo dzekongiresi muna Mbudzi kwakaratidza rutsigiro rwakasimba rweveruzhinji rwekuti vabude nekukurumidza. Boka reBipartisan Iraq Study Group (ISG), rinotungamirwa nevaimbove munyori wenyika, VaJames Baker, uye aimbova sachigaro weDare reDare Rinoona Nezvekune dzimwe nyika, Lee Hamilton, vakashora zvikuru mutemo wehurumende uye vakaronga kuti mauto eUS abviswe zvishoma nezvishoma. Siriya uye Iran, uye kuedza kugadzirisa nyaya yePalestine.
Asi Bush akada kuenda neshumo, "Kusarudza Kukunda: Chirongwa Chekubudirira mu Iraki", yakabudiswa nerightwing American Enterprise Institute. Vanyori vayo, ane simba neo-conservative munyori wenhoroondo. Frederick Kagan uye mukuru akasiya basa Jack Keane, vakakurudzira kutumira mamwe mauto uye kuisa pfungwa pavari Baghdad kugadzirisa zvakare kurongeka.
Chisarudzo chakanaka?
Saka ndizvo here, sezvakataurwa naBush mune yake State of the Union address, yaive sarudzo chaiyo? Kusvika kwemauto 30,000 100,000 kwakatungamirira kukuvandudzwa kusingarambiki mukuchengeteka muguta guru. Masvingo ari pakati penzvimbo dzeSunni neShia akarerutsa kusawirirana kwemasekete, uye kuwanda kwenzvimbo dzekudzora (ikozvino kune XNUMX mabhuraki ekongiri akapararira mumigwagwa mukati nekupoterera. Baghdad) kuderedza kurwiswa. Asi kunyange Furanzi akakunda hondo ye Algiers muna 1957 nekuunganidza mauto ayo, yakakundwa muhondo.
Zvimwe zvinhu zviviri zvakabatsira kuderedza mhirizhonga mu Iraki. Yekutanga yaive yekumisa kurwa kwakaziviswa naMoqtada al-Sadr Nyamavhuvhu apfuura (3). Hondo yeMahdi ndiyo Irakimauto ane simba zvakanyanya uye anomiririra varombo veShia. Inyika, kusavimba nevatungamiriri veIran uye kuvenga basa. Kunyangwe kumisa kurwa kwakangowedzerwa kweimwe mwedzi mitanhatu, zvibodzwa zvisingawirirane zve al-Sadr uye US ita kuti isagadzikana.
Chechipiri, chakatonyanya kukosha, chakakonzera kudzikira kwemhirizhonga yaive kuvandudzwa kwehukama nenharaunda yeSunni, kunyanya munguva yechirimo cha2007. Uye nekutenga kuvimbika kwedzinza, US akaunganidza vanopfuura 60,000 4 vaichimbova varwi vehondo kupinda muuto idzva, Sahwa (kumuka) (XNUMX).
Zvinangwa zvekujoinha zvinosiyana. Chinonyanya kukosha kurambwa kwekunyanyisa kweal-Qaida, kutsunga kwayo kumanikidza nyika yeIslam yakaoma uye zvishuvo zvayo zvepasi rose. Iyo tactical mubatanidzwa ne US inoratidzawo chishuwo chekuwana anopikisa kune "Shia njodzi". Uye mari inokurudzira zvikuru vatungamiriri vedzinza. Sezvakataurwa nemutori wenhau Patrick Cockburn, mhedzisiro yekutendeuka iri pachena: "Guta re Fallujah, zvivako zvayo zvakawanda zvichiri matongo kubvira pakaparadzwa nemauto eMarine eUnited States muna November 2004, zvine rugare kana zvichienzaniswa nemwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura. Varwi veAl-Qaida, vakamboitonga, vaenda kana kuti vari kuramba vaine chimiro chakaderera" (5).
Asi mubatanidzwa mutsva hauna kusimba. Nhengo dzeSahwa dzinoramba dzichivenga zvibodzwa zveUS uye nekuvapo kwenguva refu kwemauto ayo. Uye kutsamwira kwavo hurumende yepakati inotongwa neShia kwakaratidzwa nekuwedzera kwenhamba yekunetsana mukati Baghdad nedzimwe nzvimbo dzeSunni dzine mapurisa nemauto eShia Iraqi zvikuru (6).
Hapana chiremera chepakati chiripo, chinokwanisa kutora mukana we US kubudirira. Chibvumirano pakati pe US uye mauto eSunni awedzera kupatsanurwa kwemasimba. Munzvimbo dzakawanda, kusanganisira guta guru, kucheneswa kwechitendero kwakabatsira, pamwe nekuderera kweAl-Qaida, kuungana kwemapoka eSunni ane zvombo uye kupatsanurwa kwenzvimbo dzakasiyana nemadziro, kuderedza mhirizhonga yemapato. Asi kupatsanurwa uku hakuna kuunza kugadzikana kukuru kwedunhu kana kwenzvimbo.
Vazhinji vakakundwa kupfuura vakundi
Hapana kana imwe yenharaunda nhatu huru, Shia, Sunni kana Kurdish, ine homogeneous yakazara. Kurdistan inochengetedza kuzvitonga kwayo, asi pane kupatsanuka kwakadzama pakati peKurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) nePatriotic Union yeKurdistan (PUK), ese ari maviri anopikiswa nekusimuka kwemapoka ekuKurdish echiIslam. Kumaodzanyemba kwe Iraki, pane kukwikwidzana kunotyisa pakati peMahdi Army naAbdul Aziz al-Hakim's Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. Panhanho yenzvimbo mauto anochengetedza kurongeka nemutengo wehuwandu. Hurumende yepakati yakaona simba rayo richideredzwa kusvika pagirinhi zone mukati Baghdad, nhare huru yakadzivirirwa neUnited Marines.
Mukuedza kubatanidza maSunni, the US yakazendamira pahurumende uye kubva kutanga kwa2008 paramende yeIraq yakadzika mitemo mitatu. Yekutanga kunetseka de-Ba'athification (yakatemerwa nemumiriri akakosha waBush Paul Bremer mushure mekupinda muna 2003, uye US zvino zvinoonekwa sezvinopesana). Wechipiri akaunza kuregererwa kwechikamu kumakumi ezviuru zvevasungwa (vazhinji veSunni). Yechitatu yakaratidza masimba ehurumende yemunharaunda mushure mesarudzo dzakatevera Gumiguru, chirongwa chinogona kubvumira maSunni (avo vakadzivisa sarudzo dzeJanuary 2005) basa guru munzvimbo dzakasanganiswa.
Asi kunetsana kwakanyanya pakati pemapoka ezvematongerwo enyika uye kusasimba kwemutemo kuchaita kuti kuita basa kunetse. Mutevedzeri wemutungamiri weSunni, Tariq al-Hashimi, akaramba kusaina bhiri re-de-Ba'athification sezvo, zvisinei nezvinangwa zvaro zvakaziviswa, rakabvumidza kubviswa kwevaimbova nhengo dzeBaath pamasimba.
Ani nani arikukunda Iraki, haisi maIraqi. Mutengo wehondo wevanhu haugone kuverengeka, uye zvakakosha kuti kunyangwe tiine nhamba chaidzo dzevakaurayiwa neUS (3,967 yakafa kusvika 20 Kukadzi 2008), hapana kuedza kwakakomba kwakaitwa kuverenga nhamba yeIraqi vakaurayiwa. Isu tinoderedzwa kusvika kune fungidziro dzinobvumirana chete pahukuru hukuru hwenjodzi.
Kambani yeBritish Opinion Research Bhizinesi yakabvunzurudza 2,414 vakuru vekuIraq, 20% avo vakambofa kamwe chete mumhuri yavo yepedyo. Chirevo chayo chakagumisa kuti pakati pa19 Kurume 2003 uye zhizha ra2007 hondo yaive yakananga kana zvisina kunanga kurufu rwemiriyoni. Muna Gumiguru 2007 bhuku rezvokurapa The Lancet rakaburitsa ongororo na Johns Hopkins yunivhesiti, izvo zvakaisa nhamba yevakafa pa650,000. Pana 9 Ndira 2008 World Health Organisation yakagumisa kuti 151,000 Iraqis vakafa nechisimba pakati pekutanga kwehondo naJune 2006.
Upenyu hwezuva nezuva hwakatamburawo. Kugadzirwa kwemafuta kunoramba kuri pazasi pehondo isati yatanga, kune magetsi emazuva ese adzikiswa, 70% havana mukana wakananga kumvura yekunwa, zvipatara hazvina michina uye vanachiremba vazhinji vakatama. Kune vapoteri vangangosvika mamirioni mana uye vanhu vakadzingwa, njodzi huru yedunhu kubva kuhondo yeAfghan ye1980s.
Dzvinyiriro yacho inoderera
Saka, pane ane hanya here? Sezvakataurwa naMichael Massing muNew York Ongororo yeMabhuku, iyo US boka revatori venhau McClatchy akamisa hofisi mukati Baghdad uye akatanga bhurogi, Mukati meIraq, yakatsaurirwa kuhupenyu hwevanhuwo zvavo veIraqi mavari US madhindindi haana chaanofarira (7). Sezvo varwi vawira pasi, US kubudiswa kwenhau dzehondo kwakaderera, kuchisimbisa pfungwa yokuti hondo iri kuhwinwa; kana isiri paterevhizheni, haigone kuitika.
Leila Fadel, mukuru wehofisi yeMcClatchy mu Baghdad, akati: "Vanhu vekuAmerica vanotenda kuti masoja avo ari kushandira zvakanaka zvikuru. VaIraqi havazvioni izvozvo. Vanoona vanhu vari pano nokuda kwezvido zvavo - vanotyaira nenzira isiri iyo mumigwagwa, vanomisa motokari pose pavanoda. kuna, wavanofanira kungwarira kuti vasaswedere pedyo navo kuti varege kupfurwa." Mumwe anobatsira Mukati meIraq akatsanangura kuti sei US masoja akarova mwana wechikoro akavapotsera nedombo. Nei akanga akairasa? "Ava mauto ekunze," akadaro. "Iri ibasa." Fadel anoti manzwiro akajairika pakati pevaIraqi: "Munhu wese wandinotaura naye anofunga izvi. Havana simba munyika yavo."
Mushakabvu Jean-Franรงois Revel, wekurudyi rweFrance, akashatirwa kuti vaIraqi havana kubuda kuzokwazisa vasununguri vavo nemaruva. Mwedzi mishoma mushure mekupinda munyika iyi akanyora kuti: โSezvinoita munyika dzese dzechiArab, maIraq anoratidza ruvengo rwakakura, rwakanangana nevemadokeroโฆ (8).
Vatungamiri veUS havana kukwanisa kunzwisisa kuita kwevaIraqi: kuramba kwavo, kunyangwe kuvenga kwavo Saddam Hussein, kwekolonialism, kwakadzika munhoroondo inorwadza uye kurangarira kwekugara kwenguva refu kweBritish. White House haina kuteerera kuIraqis muna 2003. Yagadzirira kuteerera zvino here? Kubudirira kuchangoburwa, zvisinei hazvo kushoma, kwakaderedza dzvinyiriro yemumba pautongi hweBush kuti ibvise mauto, uye kwabvisa ruvengo rwepasirese. Asi kuzorora uku hakuna kunyengetedza mutungamiri ari kubuda kuti achinje maitiro; zvakasiyana chaizvo.
Iyo UN mandate, yakazopihwa kumubatanidzwa (9) mauto muna 2004, gore mushure mekurwisa, inopera muna Zvita unotevera. White House haitsvage kuivandudza, ichisarudza kuitsiva nechibvumirano chenyika mbiri (nhaurirano nehurumende yeIraqi dzinotarisirwa kupera zhizha risati rasvika). Pane kuvhiringika pamusoro pemamiriro echibvumirano ichi uye Seneti yakasimbirira pakodzero yayo yekuchisimbisa; asi manejimendi anoti sezvo isinganyatso vhara US kutora chikamu mukudzivirira Iraki kana kuvakwa kwezvigadziko zvechigarire, kubvumidzwa kwakadaro hakudiwi.
Bush paakasaina bhajeti redziviriro, rekodhi $515bn yegore rezvemari 2008, akawedzera tsananguro inoratidza kuti haaizosungwa nekurambidzwa kwebhiri rekushandisa mari pazvigaro zvemauto zvechigarire. Iraki (10). Uye sezvo paramende yeIraqi iri kuramba kushambadzirwa kweindasitiri yemafuta, US iri kuisa kumanikidza kuhurumende muBaghdad kuti irege kupikisa kupikiswa kubva kuMP uye kuenderera mberi pasina vhoti (11), kunyangwe kuburitswa kweIraq Petroleum Company muna 1972 kwaive. , uye inoramba iri, sosi huru yekudada kune veIraqi, zvisinei nedzinza ravo kana kuvimbika kwechitendero.
Budiriro huru yaBush ichave yakashandura gakava repamba. Izvo zvaitaridzika muna 2006 senge fiasco isingadzivisiki yakashandurwa, mumeso evamwe, mukukunda. Bush anotarisira kumanikidza mutsivi wake pasi pe-de-sac imwechete. Asi kubudirira kwaBarack Obama, uyo anotsigira kubvisa kubva Iraki, inoratidza kuti, kunyange padanho repamba, kubudirira kweBush hakuna kuvimbiswa. ________________________________________________________
(1) Charles Lewis naMark Reading-Smith, "False Pretense", Iyo Center for Public Kutendeseka, http://www.publicintegrity.org/WarCard/. Onawo Syed Saleem Shahzad, "Taliban kutangazve mukati Afuganisitani", Le Monde diplomatique, chinyorwa cheChirungu, Gunyana 2006.
(2) Anthony H Cordesman, "The Evolving Security Situation in Iraki", Center for Strategic uye International Studies, Washington, 21 Ndira 2008. Huwandu hwekufa kwevarwi vekuIraq hunokakavadzana.
(3) Ona "Hondo yevagari veIraqi, maSadrist neSurgery", Middle East Report 72, International Crisis Group, Brussels, 7 February 2008; http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/ind...
(4) The US yakadana sangano rinonzi Concerned Local Citizens asi nguva pfupi yadarika yakachinja zita raro kuva Sons of Iraq.
(5) Patrick Cockburn, "Dzokera ku Fallujah", Counterpunch, 28 January 2008; http://www.counterpunch.org/patrick...
(6) Ona "Awakenings Agonistes", Abu Aardvark, blog naMark Lynch, http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abua...
(7) "Sezvinoita maIraqis", Iyo New York Ongororo yeMabhuku, 17 Ndira 2008.
(8) Le Figaro, Paris, 8 Gunyana 2003.
(9) Huwandu hwemauto akapihwa nevanobatana neUS hwadonha kubva pa50,000 muna 2003 kusvika ku10,000 izvozvi.
(10) Ona Ray McGovern, "The Inquities and Inequities of War", Counterpunch, 1 February 2008; http://www.counterpunch.org/mcgover...
(11) Roula Khalaf naDino Mahtan,"Iraki inosundira mberi nezvirongwa zvemafuta", Financial Times, London, 5 Nyamavhuvhu 2008.
Yakaturikirwa naDonald Hounam
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