Kwa miyezi yambiri atolankhani komanso Washington Pols akhala akukankhira fanizo loti chuma cha US ndi ndege yomwe ili panjira yake yomaliza 'yotera mofewa'. Kutera mofewa kumatanthauzidwa ngati kukwera kwa mitengo komwe kukutsika pang'onopang'ono ku cholinga cha Federal Reserve cha 2% mtengo wamtengo NDIPO imachita izi popanda kubweretsa kugwa kwachuma.
Komabe, monga momwe zawululira ziwerengero za kukwera kwa mitengo yamitengo yaposachedwa kwambiri ya Consumer Price Index (CPI) ku US Labor Department (CPI), ndege 'yotera mofewa' ikungozungulira bwalo la ndege!
Boma lomwe langotulutsidwa kumene mu Januware 2024 lipoti la Consumer Price Index likuwonetsa kuti mitengo yangotsala pang'ono (ie 'kuzungulira'?) komwe akhala kuyambira chilimwe chatha 2023, koma lipoti la CPI la Januware likuwonetsa zizindikiro zamitengo ngakhale ikuyamba kukwera kamodzi. kachiwiri.
Komanso, ngati wina akweza malingaliro okayikitsa ndi njira zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito poyerekezera kukwera kwa mitengo mu CPI, kukwera kwa mitengo kungakhale kokulirapo kuposa momwe zanenedweratu. Kuzungulira kosalekeza kwa miyezi, ndege yofewa yotera ingakhale ikutha ngakhale mpweya.
CPI ndi imodzi mwama indices angapo aboma. Zina ziwiri ndi ndondomeko ya Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) ndi GDP Deflator Index. Izi zomaliza zimapangidwa ndi Commerce department. PCE nthawi zambiri imayesa kutsika kwa mitengo ya magawo awiri pa atatu kapena atatu mwa magawo atatu a mtengo wamtengo wapatali woperekedwa ndi CPI, pogwiritsa ntchito malingaliro ndi njira zosiyana ndi CPI.
Tanena izi, tiyeni tiwone lipoti la CPI la Januware (pambuyo pake Gawo 2 la nkhaniyi liwonetsa chifukwa chake ngakhale CPI imatsitsa kukwera kwa inflation ndi chifukwa chake PCE ndi GDP Deflator zimatsika kwambiri).
January 2024 Consumer Price Index
CPI imadula ndikuchepetsa kukwera kwa mitengo m'njira zambiri. Nambala yake yonse imatchedwa the Zinthu Zonse CPI-U. Ndichidule cha kusintha kwamitengo kwa katundu ndi ntchito zonse zomwe a CPI akuyerekeza. onse zikutanthauza pafupifupi 450 kapena kupitilira apo mwa omwe nthawi zambiri amagulidwa ndi mabanja. Pali katundu ndi ntchito mamiliyoni ambiri mu chuma cha US koma ndalama za m'mabanja zimathera pa CPI's 450 'basket of goods and services' za CPI zomwe nthawi zambiri zimagulidwa ndi mabanja.
The Zinthu Zonse Gulu limagawika mu zomwe zimatchedwa 'Headline' inflation ndi 'Core' inflation. Popeza chakudya ndi mphamvu (ie mafuta, gasi, magetsi, mafuta amafuta, zogulira, chakudya chapanyumba, chakudya chakutali ndi nyumba, ndi zina zotero) ndi zinthu zomwe zimakonda kusinthasintha kwambiri, kuchotsa chakudya ndi mphamvu ku Zinthu Zonse kumabweretsa zomwe zimatchedwa. 'Core' inflation. Onjezaninso muzakudya ndi katundu wamagetsi ndipo ndiko kukwera kwamitengo ya 'Mutu'.
Kuwonongeka kwina kofunikira kwa 'Zinthu Zonse' ndi Goods vs. Services inflation. The Zabwino gawo lazachuma ndi pafupifupi 20% ya GDP (Zomangamanga-zogona ndi zamalonda-ndi pafupifupi 8% ya GDP ndi Manufactured katundu pafupifupi 12%). Ena onse (80%) a chuma cha US ndi Services. Chifukwa chake Ntchito zimathandizira gawo lalikulu la CPI yonse komanso kukwera kwamitengo.
Ndiye lipoti laposachedwa la Januware 2024 CPI likutiwonetsa chiyani 'Zinthu zonse', 'Mutu wamutu', 'Kwambiri' ndi magulu ang'onoang'ono ofunikira a Zabwino vs. Services kukwera kwa mitengo?
Chofunikira kwambiri chotengera mu Januware CPI ndi 'Zinthu zonse' kuchuluka kwa inflation mwezi watha kuli pamlingo womwewo womwe udali miyezi isanu ndi iwiri yapitayo mu June 2023-ndiko kuti, inflation idapitilira kukwera pamlingo womwewo wa 3% pachaka mu Januware 2023 momwe mu June 2023!
Kuti tipitilize fanizo la 'kutera mofewa', zikutanthauza kuti ndege ya Inflation idalowa "kutsika" kuyambira Januware 2022 mpaka Januware 2023, kutsika kuchoka pa chiwonjezeko chapachaka cha 7.5% kumayambiriro kwa 2022 mpaka 6.4% chaka chotsatira. Januwale 2023. Kenako idachepera miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yotsatira kuyambira Januware 2023 mpaka Juni 2023, kuchoka pa 6.4% mpaka 3%.
Pambuyo pake, kuyambira Juni watha 2023, idakwera pamtunda wa 5,000 pamwamba pa eyapoti yachuma yaku US, komwe yakhala ikuzungulira kuyambira pamenepo.
Peeling anyezi wa 'Zinthu Zonse' aggregate chizindikiro, ndi kuganizira chabe 'Kwambiri' kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu — mwachitsanzo, ‘Zinthu Zonse’ kuchotsera mitengo ya mphamvu ndi zakudya—Ndi chithunzi chofanana: Kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu sikunasinthenso, pafupifupi 3.9% -4% kuyambira Okutobala 2023.
Kudula 'Zinthu Zonse' mwanjira inanso, kutsika kwamitengo ya Katundu ndi Services zomwe ziwerengero zaposachedwa za CPI za Januwale zimawululanso ndikuti kuyambira Okutobala 2023 kukwera kwamitengo ya Services nakonso kwakhazikika, pakadali pano pafupifupi 5%.
Mwa kuyankhula kwina, kupatulapo mafuta ndi zakudya zina, CPI sinachedwe m'miyezi isanu ndi iwiri yapitayi. Ndege siinatsike koma ikungozungulira!
Ndipo mwina gasi akutha. Ziwerengero zaposachedwa za CPI, pakusintha kwa mwezi ndi mwezi, zikuwonetsa kuti kuchuluka kwa inflation mwina kudayambanso kukweranso mwezi watha. Zosasinthidwa malinga ndi nyengo (ie kusintha kwamitengo), ziwerengero za CPI za Januware zikuwonetsa mwezi ndi mwezi kukwera kwa CPI motere:
Okutobala 2023: 0.0%
Novembala 2023: -0.2%
Disembala 2023: -.0.1%
Januware 2024: +0.5%
Mkati mwa ziwerengero za Januwale munali zinthu zina zodetsa nkhawa: Kutsika kwa mitengo yantchito kwatsala pang'ono kuwirikiza mu Januware poyerekeza ndi Disembala (0.7% vs 0.4%); mitengo yazakudya idakwera kuwirikiza kawiri (0.4% vs 0.2%) pomwe mitengo ya golosale ikukwera mwachangu kwambiri m'miyezi khumi ndi iwiri yapitayi. Pakadali pano ndalama zogona zidakwera kuchoka pa 0.4% mpaka 0.6% mu Januware pomwe gawo lake lalikulu, Rent, likukwera mwachangu kwambiri m'miyezi isanu ndi inayi. Ndipo ntchito zina monga zipatala ndi ndege, mitengo yake idatsika mu 2023, idakweranso mu Januware.
Mphamvu zolozera kukukwera kwamafuta amafuta ndi mphamvu Kukwera kwamitengo ya katundu m'miyezi ikubwerayi zikuwonekeranso. Otsatsa mabizinesi ku US ndi akunja anena kuti mavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi akuchulukirachulukira - panthawi yomwe nthawi yamasika mafuta opangira mafuta amatsekedwa kuti akonze ndipo ogula amayamba kuyendetsa kwambiri.
The Goods vs. Services Inflation Conundrum
Kuti tifotokoze mwachidule mpaka pano: ngati malipoti a CPI a miyezi isanu ndi iwiri yapitayi akuwonetsa kuti mitengo ya Services ili pa 5%, mitengo ya Core pafupifupi 4%, ndipo Zinthu Zonse zakhala pa 3%. Ziwerengerozi zikusonyeza kuti mitengo ya Katundu—mafuta amafuta ndi zakudya zina—yatsikadi. Lipoti la Januware CPI likuwonetsa kuti mitengo ya katundu yakhala yotsika kapena yoyipa pang'ono m'miyezi khumi ndi iwiri yapitayi.
Koma kukwera kwa mitengo ya Services kumakhalabe pafupifupi 5% kwa miyezi tsopano. Zomwe zayambitsa kupitiliza kutsika kwa mitengo ya Services zakhala ntchito za Rent zomwe nthawi zonse zakhala ndi udindo wopitilira theka la kuchuluka kwamitengo ya CPI kwa miyezi ingapo; Ntchito Zosamalira Masana; Mitengo yamasewera ndi Zosangalatsa; Kukonza Magalimoto; ndi ntchito za Auto Inshuwalansi zomwe zakwera ndi 20.6% chaka chatha. Kuphatikiza apo, mitengo yazipatala ikukweranso ndipo ikukwera mwachangu kwambiri kuyambira 2015.
Nanga ndi chifukwa chiyani kukwera kwa mitengo ya Katundu (makamaka gasi ndi chakudya) kwatsika kwambiri chaka chatha pomwe mitengo ya Services sinachitepo?
Pali mafotokozedwe angapo. Nawa awiri:
Chiwongola dzanja cha Fed chikuchulukirachulukira
Kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja cha Federal Reserve kuyambira 2022 kwakhudza kwambiri kukwera kwa mitengo ya katundu - mwachitsanzo, mphamvu ndi chakudya ndi zinthu zina. Koma mwinanso mphamvu zina zachuma.
Chuma cha US chatsika chifukwa chokwera mitengo. Koma momwemonso chuma cha padziko lonse chatsika. Ndi chiyani chomwe chakhudza kwambiri kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa mafuta, katundu komanso mitengo ya zinthu zokhudzana ndi mphamvu ku US nthawi zonse? Kukwera kwamitengo yaku US kapena kuchepa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi? Nanga bwanji zamitengo yazakudya/zogula? Mitengo ya mkaka ndi mazira idakwera mu 2021-22 koma idatsika. Komabe, zakudya zosinthidwa monga zophika buledi ndi zinthu zina zokonzedwa monga madzi ndi zakumwa sizinatero. Iwo akadali kukwera pa mlingo woposa 20% pachaka? Kusiyana kwake kuli pa mfundo yakuti mkaka ndi mazira amapangidwa m'derali ndipo samangokhalira kulamulira; Zakudya zokonzedwa ndizokhazikika ndipo zimayendetsedwa ndi makampani angapo. Izi zikusonyeza kuti kukwera mtengo kwamakampani kukuchitika m'gawo lazakudya zosinthidwa. Makanema aposachedwa komanso boma akulankhulanso za 'shrinkflation' (kukwera kwamitengo kobisika potsitsa zomwe zili) zomwe zikuwonetsa umboni wakukwera mitengo kwamakampani omwe asinthidwa.
2021-22: Kukwera kwa Ndalama Zoyendetsedwa ndi Supply Driver
Vuto lalikulu pakutsika kwa mitengo ya katundu lomwe lidayamba mu 2021 linali lanyumba yaku US komanso padziko lonse lapansi. Monga wolemba uyu adakambilana kale (onani wanga 'The Anatomy of Inflation Nkhani ya Counterpunch ya June 23, 2022), zomwe zidapangitsa kuti kukwera kwa mitengo ifike pachimake 9.1% makamaka zidali za Supply - mwachitsanzo, maunyolo obwera chifukwa cha kukwera mitengo kwamakampani aku US omwe adakwera mitengo pomwe chuma cha US chidatsegulidwanso m'chilimwe cha 2021 kuchokera ku Covid. kuzimitsa. Uwu ndi mutu womwe akatswiri azachuma komanso ndale ambiri sanawumvetsere mochedwerapo.
Zogulitsa zidatsikanso mu 2021-22 ndikutsika kwambiri kuyambira 1947, zomwe zidakweza mtengo wabizinesi womwe makampani ambiri adangopereka kwa ogula pamitengo yokwera. Monga maunyolo ogulitsa ndi kukweza mitengo, izinso zinali zofunikira.
Kutsika kwamitengo panthawiyo mu 2021-22, mwa kuyankhula kwina, kunali kokwanira - osati kufuna - kuyendetsedwa.
Kutsekedwa kwa Covid kwa 2020-21 kudadabwitsa kwambiri chuma cha US, makamaka kupezeka. Ogwira ntchito omwe adachotsedwa sanabwerenso nthawi yomweyo. Mabizinesi ena monga makampani a njanji adapeza kuti ndikwabwino komanso kopindulitsa kusabwezera antchito awo onse koma kuyendetsa magulu opeza phindu. Mabizinesi ena sanathe nthawi yomweyo kapena kukulitsa kupanga chuma chitangoyamba kutsegulidwanso m'chilimwe cha 2021. Poyamba amadikirira kuti awone ngati kutsegulidwanso kungapitirire. Koma chuma chitangoyamba kutsegulidwanso bwino kumapeto kwa chilimwe cha 2021 mabizinesi ambiri amayesa kubweza ndalama zomwe zidatayika pokweza mitengo mwachangu (Chitsanzo chenicheni chinali makampani a Airlines ndi Hotelo omwe amatsitsa mtengo ogula ndi mitengo yotsika mtengo mu 2021-22.
Kuyimitsa kwa Covid kukonzanso misika yazantchito, zogulitsa ndi zachuma m'njira zomwe sizikumveka bwino ndi akatswiri azachuma kapena opanga mfundo. Njira zolimbikitsira ndalama ndi ndalama makamaka sizinagwire ntchito bwino kapena bwino (mutu wankhani ina). Kuchuluka kochulukira kwandalama ndi zachuma sikunapangitse kukula koyembekezeka kwa kubwezeretsa kwenikweni kwachuma.
Chochititsa chidwi kwambiri pazaka ziwiri zapitazi kuyambiranso kwachuma ku US kwakhala kukukulirakulira. Mu 2020-21 Federal Reserve idapopa $ 5 thililiyoni mubanki yaku US komanso mwachindunji kwa osunga ndalama kudzera mu pulogalamu yake ya QE. Congress inapereka ndalama zokwana madola 4 thililiyoni mu ndalama za boma ndi kuchepetsa msonkho. Ndi $9 thililiyoni pazokondoweza zophatikizidwa! Pafupifupi kawiri zomwe zidaperekedwa mu 2008-10 Zomwe zachitika, zaka ziwiri zoyambirira 2022-23 chuma chitatha kutsegulidwanso mu 2021 chinali kukula kwa GDP malinga ndi 2.1% mu 2022 komanso zosasangalatsa 2.5% mu 2023.
Mwachidule, phiri la $ 9T lachilimbikitso chandalama-ndalama lidapangitsa kuti pakhale chiwopsezo cha GDP!
Zomwe zidalipo pazovuta zomwe zidapezeka mu 2021 komanso zomwe zidapitilira mu 2022 zinali mitengo yamtengo wapatali padziko lonse lapansi mu 2022-23 chifukwa cha nkhondo yaku Ukraine ndi US Russian (ndi China mpaka pang'ono) mfundo zoletsa komanso Nkhondo yaku Ukraine.
Zinthu zonsezi zidathandizira kutsika kwamitengo komwe kumayendetsedwa ndi 2021-22. Mphamvu zogulitsirazo zidachepetsedwa pang'ono ndi mfundo zofooketsa za Federal Reserve zitayamba kukweza mitengo.
Ndipo tsopano kuyambira pakati pa 2023 kukwera kwa Fed kwasiya. Ndipo ndi momwemonso ma Services inflation atsika. Kukwera kwamitengo ya Fed mpaka 5.5% kumawoneka kuti sikungakhudze kutsika kwamitengo ya Services. Ndiye kodi chiwongoladzanja chingakhale chokwera bwanji kuti chigwire ntchito? Mbiri yochepa motere ikhoza kupereka lingaliro.
Volcker's 1980-82 Solution vs. Powell's 2022-23
Ngakhale kukwera kwa inflation ku US kudali kokulirapo, mu 2022 andale aku US ndi Federal Reserve adaganiza njira yothanirana ndi kukwera kwamitengo ikhala kugwetsa kufunikira kwa ogula pachuma cha US. Bungwe la Federal Reserve lidayamba kuukira zofuna za ogula kuti achepetse kukwera kwa mitengo. Chida chake chachikulu chinali kukweza chiwongola dzanja ndipo Fed idayamba mu 2022 kukweza mitengo mwachangu kwambiri m'zaka makumi angapo. Lingaliro linali loti akhazikitse ulova wokwanira womwe ungachepetse ndalama zomwe amalandila komanso kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama kuti achepetse kufunikira kwake komanso mitengo yake. Mwa kuyankhula kwina: ngakhale madalaivala akuluakulu anali mbali ya Supply (yomwe Fed singachite kanthu) njirayo inali yopangitsa mabanja kulipira mtengo kuti athetse kutsika kwa mitengo mwa kugwetsa ndalama za malipiro apanyumba ndi zofuna zogwiritsira ntchito. Chifukwa chake Fed idakweza chiwongola dzanja kufika pa 5.5% pazaka za 2022-2023.
Kupatula apo, kukwera kofananako kukakamiza njira yofuna kugwirira ntchito pansi pa Reagan mu 1981-83 pomwe Paul Volcker anali mpando wa Fed. 10% + CPI inflation yapachaka panthawiyo idatsitsidwa kudzera pakukwera kwa Fed komwe kudasokoneza gawo la Katundu, kukulitsa kusowa kwa ntchito, ndipo pambuyo pake kupsinjika kwa malipiro ndikugwiritsa ntchito. Inali njira yofunikira pakuchepetsa mitengo - yomwe idagwiritsidwa ntchito kuthana ndi vuto lakutsika kwamitengo ya Supply kalelo. Komabe zinathandiza. Mitengo idatsika, koma Fed itakweza kuchuluka kwa 15%! Kutsika kwachuma kwakukulu mu 1982-83 kunatsatira kuchuluka kwa Fed kwa 1980. Koma zinali choncho. Chuma cha US chasintha kwambiri kuyambira pamenepo. Sizikugwiranso ntchito mwanjira imeneyo. Zowonadi, ndondomeko yazachuma simagwira ntchito nkomwe.
Monga mu 1980-82, Powell's Fed rate kukwera mu 2022-23 achita bwino kutsitsa mitengo yazinthu koma sanachite bwino nthawi ino kutsitsa mitengo yantchito kwambiri, monga momwe data ya CPI ya miyezi isanu ndi iwiri yapitayi ikuwonetseratu. Kutsika kwa mitengo ya zinthu kwatsikadi, koma mitengo ya mautumiki ikadali yokhazikika m'chilimwe chatha cha 2023 tsopano kwa miyezi yambiri ndipo mwina ikukweranso. Nanga nchifukwa ninji zaka makumi anayi pambuyo pake ndondomeko yazachuma (kukwera mitengo) sikunapambane monga momwe idachitira mu 1980-82 pakuchepetsa mtengo kwambiri?
Pamsonkhano wake wa atolankhani mu Disembala 2022 pambuyo pomwe a Fed adayamba kukweza mitengo, Wapampando wa Fed Jerome Powell adawonetsa kuti njira ya Fed mu 2023 ikhala yopitilira kukweza mitengo. Anatchulanso cholinga chake chachikulu chotsitsa mitengo ya Services pansi, ndikuwonjezera kuti kusowa kwa ntchito kumafunikira mu Services kuti achepetse kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa Services. Imeneyi inali njira yotsika mtengo ya Fed ya 2023. Koma njira imeneyo-ndi mitengo yotsika ya Services-siyinachitike.
Zotsutsana ndi Fed Monetary Policy
Theka la 2023 Powell adasiya kukweza mitengo. Koma chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa chiyani sanapitirize kukweza mitengo ndikuyima pakati pa 2023? Pali mayankho angapo otheka, koma monga momwe wolembayu adanenera kale, mwina chifukwa chachikulu chinali vuto lomwe lidawonekera nthawi imodzi pamabanki amchigawo cha US mu Marichi 2023. Kukweza chiwongola dzanja chokwera kwambiri kukanakulitsa vuto lakubanki m'chigawocho. Chifukwa chake Powell adakweza mitengo komaliza mu Meyi-June 2023 pambuyo poti Mavuto a Banki Yachigawo aphulika mu Marichi 2023.
Pochita izi a Fed adaganiza zosinthana ndi kuchepetsa kutsika kwa Services ndi Core inflation kupitilira mu 2023 pofuna kupewa kuchulukirachulukira kwa mabanki amchigawo. Powell mwachiwonekere wayika kubetcha kwake poganiza kuti chiwongola dzanja cha 5.5% chikhala chokwanira pakapita nthawi kuti pamapeto pake, ngakhale pang'onopang'ono, agwetse Services. Mpaka pano sizinatero. Kusowa kwa ntchito m'gawo la ntchito komanso kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito sikunachepe. Powell wataya kubetcha kwake. Mitengo yantchito 'yakakamira' pa 5% ndi Core pafupifupi 4% tsopano.
Zomwe izi zikuwonetsa ndikuti US ndi chuma chapadziko lonse lapansi chasintha kwambiri kuyambira koyambirira kwa 1980s. US ndi chuma chochuluka kwambiri cha Services masiku ano poyerekeza ndi zaka makumi anayi zapitazo. Ntchito sizimayankha bwino pakukweza mitengo. M'malo mwake, komanso chuma chonse sichikuwoneka. Kuyika izi m'mawu a akatswiri azachuma: Kutsika kwamitengo ya ntchito kwakhala 'chiwongola dzanja chosakwanira'.
Kusowa kwachuma kwenikweni kwa chiwongola dzanja (mwachitsanzo, kusakhazikika) kungakhale chifukwa china chachuma cha US kukhala 'chandalama' lero poyerekeza ndi 1981-83. Zomwe zikutanthauza kuti ma jakisoni a Fed periodic liquidity (aka ndalama) muzachuma amasinthidwa kuchoka kubizinesi yeniyeni ndikuyenda mochulukirapo m'misika yazachuma m'malo mwachuma chenicheni. Izi zimapangitsa kuti ndondomeko ya Fed ikhale 'yosagwira ntchito' - kutanthauza kuti jekeseni wandalama amafunika kuti apeze chilimbikitso chofanana cha 'bang for the buck'.
Zokambiranazi ndizowonanso: Kukwera kwamitengo ya Fed sikungakhudze kuchepa kwa kukwera kwa mitengo komanso kuchedwetsa chuma chenicheni chifukwa chakula kwambiri. Kukwera mitengo sikungobweza ndalama zambiri (ndalama) pazachuma monga kale. Ndipo ngakhale akanachita izo sizikanakhala kanthu. Mabizinesi (ndi ogula) masiku ano, zaka zingapo pambuyo pake, ali ndi mwayi wopeza ndalama zina kupatula kubwereketsa kubanki, ku US ndi padziko lonse lapansi. Kapena mwina mabizinesi ndi osunga ndalama adachepetsa kuyikapo ndalama m'chuma chenicheni, asanaganizire zochepetsera ndalama zawo m'misika yandalama. Kupatula apo, kodi misika yazachuma ndi phindu silinachuluke panthawi ya Covid pomwe mwayi woyika ndalama pachuma chenicheni ukugwa?
Ndime yapitayi ikusonyeza kuti kudalirana kwa mayiko kungayambitsenso ndondomeko ya chiwongoladzanja cha Federal Reserve ikafika pa kukwera kwa mitengo yomwe ikuchepetsa kukwera kwa mitengo. Apa zachuma ndi kudalirana kwa mayiko a 21st Capitalist Economy ikuphatikizana.
Mabungwe amitundumitundu makamaka samachepetsedwa ndi kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja cha Fed kapena milingo akafuna ndalama kuti agulitse. Amatha kupita kulikonse padziko lapansi kuti apeze mitengo yotsika. Ndiko kuganiza kuti avutikenso kubwereka ku banki konse. Mayiko ambiri amapeza ndalama zochulukirapo popereka ngongole zamakampani awoawo. Ndipo adakweza kuperekedwa kwa bondi mzaka zapafupifupi ziro Fed mitengo kuyambira 2009-2018 kenako mu 2020-21 pomwe Fed idalowetsa $5T yochulukirapo yandalama zaulere kumabanki komanso mwachindunji kwa osunga ndalama kudzera pa QE. Mabungwe angopereka ngongole zambiri za bond pamaso pa Covid zomwe sanazifune ndipo adangopeza ndalamazo panthawi yonseyi. Kapenanso adagawiranso ndalama za Fed zaulere kwa eni ake omwe amawagula ndikugawana nawo ndikusunga ndalama zomwe amapeza. Bungwe la Fed litayamba kukweza mitengo mu 2022 kukwera kwamitengoko kunalibe ntchito kwa mabizinesi akuluakulu ambiri. Amagulidwa ndi ndalama zosagwiritsidwa ntchito kuchokera ku ma bond kapena stock yatsopano. Mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono okha ndi omwe amakhudzidwanso ndi kukwera kwa Fed, kapena kutsika kwamitengo pankhaniyi.
Zina Zomaliza
Pomaliza, ponena za inflation, zomwe zonsezi zikutanthauza kuti Fed mpando Powell adzayenera kukweza mitengo kwambiri kuposa 5.5% ngati akufuna kuchepetsa Services ndi Core inflation significantly. Mwinamwake osati monga 15% ya Paul Volcker mu 1981. Koma apamwamba kuposa 5.5% panopa motsimikiza.
Komabe Powell sangachitenso bola ngati mitengo ya inflation ya Services ikukhalabe pamilingo yapano. Iye waganiza kuti atha kukhala ndi kuchuluka kwa inflation kwa Services, pomwe kubetcha mwina mitengo yomwe imasungidwa pamiyezo yomwe ilipo ingachepetse kukwera kwa inflation pakapita nthawi.
Powell sangaike pachiwopsezo cha mitengo yokwera yomwe ingawonjezerenso vuto la banki m'derali, lomwe likupitilizabe kuwonongeka pang'onopang'ono komanso lomwe tsopano likukumana ndi chiwopsezo cha kuwonongeka kwa katundu wamalonda mu 2025-26, komwe mabanki am'madera osakhazikika amakhalabe owonekera. .
Sangakwezenso mitengo chifukwa chuma cha US chatsala pang'ono kugwa kale. Gawo lazomangamanga ku US latsika gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu ndipo likuwoneka kuti silikuyenda bwino pomwe makampani opanga zinthu akhala akuchita mgwirizano kwa miyezi isanu ndi inayi yapitayi, malinga ndi Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Kutsika kwachuma mu 2024 sikungathandize andale. Ndipo mosasamala kanthu za zomwe okhululukirira a Fed akunena, ndondomeko za Fed zimayendetsedwa ndi ndale m'zaka za chisankho.
Chifukwa chake yembekezerani CPI ndi inflation kukhalabe pamilingo yofanana ndi yomwe ali nayo theka lapitalo. Kutsika kwamitengo ya katundu kudzakhalabe kotsika (malinga ndi mitengo yamafuta osatsimikizika). Makampani omwe angathe, adzapitirizabe kutsika mtengo. Mitengo ya renti ndi nyumba, ntchito za inshuwaransi, zakudya zosinthidwa, ntchito zosankhidwa zizikhalabe zomwe zilipo kapena kupitilirabe. Chifukwa chake CPI, kusinthasintha mwina pang'ono kuzungulira Januware mwezi ndi mwezi.
Komabe, monga momwe zidzafotokozedwere mu Gawo 2 lotsatizana la nkhaniyi, ngakhale CPI yomwe inanenedwa ndi kuyerekezera kochepa kwa mtengo wamtengo wapatali, chifukwa cha malingaliro ambiri okayikitsa ndi njira zomwe zimapita ku kulingalira kwake kwa kukwera kwa mitengo.
Chifukwa chake ngati ndege yazachuma yaku US ikasankha kutsika, kutera kwake kungakhale 'kofewa'.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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