Mehdi Kia: Masabata angapo apitawa awona kukwera kwa kukakamizidwa kwa US ku Iran yomwe ili kale ndi mavuto azachuma ndi ndale komanso kusakhutira komwe kukukulirakulira. Ntchito yandale yomwe idawonekera mwa munthu wa Trump kuyambira pachiyambi idayang'ana Islamic Republic ku Iran ngati mdani wamkulu ku Middle East. Mukuwona bwanji izi zikuyenerana ndi njira yonse yaku US pansi paulamuliro wa Trump? Kodi Iran ndiye chandamale chachikulu kapena kuwukirako ndi gawo la njira zazikulu zapadziko lonse lapansi?
Ardeshir Mehrdad: Monga ndatsutsa kale, njira yonse ya US pansi pa ulamuliro wa Trump imatsogoleredwa ndi kugwirizanitsa njira ziwiri zoipa padziko lonse lapansi:
- Kufulumizitsa vuto la dongosolo la capitalism, lokhazikika pamavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi omwe adayamba mu 2008;
- Kusintha kwa mphamvu pamlingo wapadziko lonse lapansi komanso kutsika kwadziko lonse lapansi ku US kuyambira 2000.
Zochitika izi zidakulitsa mipata ndi zolakwika zomwe zili mkati mwa dongosolo la capitalist ndikulowa m'malo mapangano ndi mgwirizano pakati pa zigawo zake zosiyanasiyana ndi mikangano ndi mpikisano.
Lingaliro la Trump ndikupititsa patsogolo njira za omwe adamutsogolera kuti aimitse ndikusinthanso njira yochokera kudziko lopanda polar ndi US ngati mphamvu yokhayo yamphamvu kudziko lamitundu yambiri yokhala ndi magulu angapo amayiko aku capitalist omwe akupikisana padziko lonse lapansi. Komabe, Trump adatsata njirayi pogwiritsa ntchito njira ndi zida zosiyanasiyana, kugwiritsa ntchito njira yosagwirizana ndi mayiko ena, kuchoka ku mapangano ndi mapangano akale, kudalira kwambiri kupambana kwa asilikali, ndikugwiritsa ntchito zovuta zandale ndi zachuma kuti akwaniritse zolinga zake. Izi zadzetsa kusintha kwa ubale wa US ndi European Union, Russia, China ndi osewera ena ambiri pamayiko akunja limodzi ndi kugwetsa ndi kuyesa kukonzanso zambiri zomwe zidakhazikitsidwa pazaka makumi asanu zapitazi.
Kuposa kwina kulikonse padziko lapansi, US yataya udindo wake wosatsutsika womwe unali nawo ku Middle East pambuyo pa kugwa kwa Soviet Union. Pa nthawiyo maulamuliro onse a mโmadera anali mโnjira ina kapena inzake ndipo anali kulamulira dera lonselo. Ngakhale pambuyo pa kulandidwa kwa Iraq, idapitilizabe kulamulira. Ngakhale Islamic Republic (IR) idagwirizana ndi US mwanjira zina ku Iraq komanso ku Afghanistan. IR panthawiyo sinali chiwopsezo chambiri ku US hegemony. Mwanjira ina, US idasintha kukhala mphamvu yapadziko lonse lapansi komanso yachigawo. Ulamuliro wotero sugwiranso ntchito. Kukana kugwira ntchito ku Iraq komanso kulephera kupanga boma lokhazikika ku Afghanistan kwathandizira kuti pakhale malo opanda mphamvu omwe adadzazidwa ndi osewera amderalo.
Chifukwa chake US idakakamizika kuposa kale kuyandikira pafupi ndi ena mwa ogwirizana nawo m'derali ndikupereka kulemera kwakukulu kumalingaliro awo ndi zokonda zawo kuti apange mphamvu zatsopano mderali. Kuti mgwirizano watsopanowu ukhale wovuta kwambiri US iyenera kuphatikizira ogwirizana nawo kwambiri popanga mfundo zachigawo. Ndicho chifukwa chake Israeli, Saudi Arabia ndi mayiko a Gulf sanangoyamba kugwira ntchito yaikulu pakugwiritsa ntchito njira za US m'deralo, koma zofuna zawo zinapatsidwanso kulemera kwakukulu. Izi zidayikidwa ku US ndi kusowa kwa mphamvu m'derali.
Obama anayesa kukana mfundo zotere ndipo anayesa kubweretsa pang'onopang'ono IR munjira yake popereka chilolezo ndikuchepetsa mikangano. Ndondomekoyi idalephera chifukwa pochita IR idakwanitsa kukulitsa chikoka chake m'derali komanso kusintha koyenera kwa mphamvu m'malo mwake. M'zaka khumi kapena kuposerapo, IR idakulitsa mphamvu zake zandale ku Iraq ndi madera ena a Afghanistan, pomwe ku Syria ndondomeko za Obama zidalola IR kugwiritsa ntchito kufooka kwa boma la Assad kukulitsa chikoka chake, kupangitsa kuti womalizayo, m'njira zambiri, akhale wodalira. pa chithandizo cha Iran. Ambulera ya IR tsopano inafikira ku Mediterranean. Chowonadi pamtunda chinali kugonjetsedwa koonekeratu kwa ndondomeko za Israeli ndi Saudi Arabia m'derali kusokoneza mphamvu ya mphamvu. US idayang'anizana ndi kufooka kwathunthu kwa gawo lake lolamulira.
Kufooka kumeneku ndi komwe kudapangitsa dziko la US kutengera mfundo zina, kuti apezenso ndikusungabe cholinga chake chokhala ndi mphamvu zowongolera mphamvu zolemera, zofunikira kwambiri ku Middle East. Pochita izi zikutanthawuza kupereka kulemera kwakukulu kwa zolinga za anthu omwe ali pafupi kwambiri, makamaka Israeli ndi Saudi Arabia, zolinga zomwe sizili zofanana ndi za US.
Kuwonongeka kwa mgwirizano wa nyukiliya ndi Iran ndi US kumamveka bwino kudzera mumgwirizano watsopanowu. IR iyenera kufooketsedwa, chigawo chake chachikoka chichepe kuti Israeli ndi Saudi Arabia ayambirenso udindo wawo wakale. Mayiko onsewa adawopsezedwa kwambiri ndi IR. Ndondomeko ya a Trump ndikukankhira mmbuyo mphamvu za mphamvu zomwe zinali zaka khumi, khumi ndi zisanu zapitazo.
Mfundo zonse za US ku Middle East ndizophatikizira zoyesayesa kuti abwezeretse mphamvu za US panthawi yamavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi omwe kuyambira 2008 adalimbikitsa kukwera kwa mpikisano pakati pa osewera akulu padziko lonse lapansi, m'malo mwa mgwirizano wakale. mwa iwo. Komabe zonsezi zikuchitika panthawi yomwe malo a US m'derali ndi ofooka kuposa momwe adakhalira kuyambira kumapeto kwa WWII. Kufooka uku ndikoyenera, kulipidwa chifukwa chodalira kwambiri ogwirizana nawo m'derali kuposa kale lonse ndipo potero amaganizira zofuna za ogwirizana nawo atatu akuluakulu: Israel, Saudi Arabia ndi mayiko a Gulf. Zokonda zawo zolumikizana zidagwirizana pakutha kwa mgwirizano wanyukiliya ndikuwonjezera mavuto azachuma ndi ndale ku Iran. Ulamuliro wa Chisilamu uyenera kuthetsedwa kapena kuchepetsedwa kufikira kumadera ake ndikuchepetsedwa kwambiri. Ndondomeko yonse ya US yokhudzana ndi Iran, kaya tikukamba za zovuta za EU ndi China ndi zigawo zina zikhoza kuwoneka mu ndondomekoyi.
Zomwe zikuchitika ndi gawo la kuyankha kwa US ku zolinga zake m'derali - kuwongolera dera lomwe lili ndi mphamvu zambiri komanso lazandale ku Middle East, pomwe Iran idayimilira pachimake, ikuyendayenda monga momwe imachitira ndi Caspian yolemera kwambiri. Nyanja ndi Persian Gulf. Masiku ano US ikukakamizika kukaonana ndi ogwirizana nawo akuluakulu am'deralo, makamaka Israeli ndi Saudi Arabia, ngati akufuna kuchitapo kanthu. Mikhalidwe yakhazikitsa njira zosiyanasiyana zothandiza. Njira yonseyi imakhala yofanana.
MK: Kodi tingathe kufotokozeranso njira zenizeni zomwe IR yathandizira kusintha mphamvu ku Middle East?
AM: Mwina chida chake chofunikira kwambiri chakhala kupanga zambiri zomwe mungatchule shia' mtundu wa Taliban. Osati ku Iraq kokha, komanso ku Syria ndi Yemen. Asitikali omwe amayankha makamaka kwa olamulira olumikizidwa ndi IR. Vuto la ndale lomwe linapangidwa ndi kugonjetsedwa komwe kunachititsa asilikali a US ndi kuchepa kwa chikoka cha US kunali zifukwa zabwino kwambiri zopangira ndi kufalikira kwa mabungwe apansi otere, omwe amathandizidwa ndi bungwe la IR ndi ogwirizana nawo. Nkovuta, kapena kuti nโkosatheka kugonjetsa mphamvu zoterozo pankhondo wamba. Ku Syria, awa adalumikizana ndi Hezbollah ya Lebanon popanga gulu lankhondo logwirizana ndi IR. M'madera ambiri a Iraq ndi Syria zolemba za mkulu wa asilikali a Iran Revolutionary Guard Ghasem Soleimani zimapita patsogolo kuposa boma lapakati kapena mkulu wa asilikali a US m'dzikolo. Momwemonso ku Yemen. Ichi ndi chitukuko chatsopano kwambiri poyerekeza ndi zaka khumi kapena kuposerapo zapitazo.
Europe
MK: Izi zatsopano zakakamiza US kukakamiza ogwirizana nawo akale ku Europe. Koma Turkey ikupita patsogolo ku Russiaโฆ.
AM: A US sakuwonanso Europe ngati mnzake koma ngati mdani. Kapena, kani, ndi zonse tsopano. Trump wayamba nkhondo yaikulu yazachuma ndi EU. Mofananamo Ulaya akuyambanso kuyang'ana zinthu zambiri, monga kusunga Nato kapena kupanga mgwirizano watsopano wa asilikali - gulu lankhondo latsopano la ku Ulaya - popanda kusokoneza kwa US. Kapena gwiritsani ntchito Switzerland, kunja kwa EU koma ku Schengen, kuti mupange dongosolo lazachuma lapadziko lonse lapansi. Chochititsa chidwi kwambiri n'chakuti mayiko a ku Ulaya akuganiza zosintha dola kukhala ndalama yapadziko lonse ndi yuro kapena basiketi ya ndalama. Zonsezi zikupita patsogolo kutali ndi kuwonekera. Yang'anani pa msonkhano womaliza wa G7 kuti muwone kusiyana kwakukulu pakati pa Ulaya (makamaka Germany) ndi US. Trump anali yekhayekha.
Chimodzi mwa zifukwa zomwe US โโikufuna kulamulira Middle East ndikuigwiritsa ntchito ngati chowongolera kukakamiza Europe (ndi China). Onsewa ndi omwe amapikisana nawo, kusiyana kwake ndikuti China ikukula mwachangu kuposa Europe. Komanso, China imatsatira ndondomeko imodzi, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kuti US azikakamiza pamene ali ku EU, ndi mayiko a 27 omwe alibe zofuna zofanana, US ali ndi mphamvu zambiri. Kupambana mu Brexit ndi chimodzi. Momwemonso US ikhoza kupititsa patsogolo mayiko ngati Poland kuti apindule. Pachifukwa ichi China ili pachiwopsezo chofulumira. Koma m'kupita kwa nthawi ndi mgwirizano wa Bonn-Paris, makamaka Germany (ndi Frankfurt tsiku ndi tsiku akukhala amphamvu, mayiko ambiri a EU ali ndi ngongole ku Germany) yomwe ikukula mdani wa likulu la America. Ndizosadabwitsa kuti chinthu choyamba chomwe Trump adachita muutsogoleri wake ndikutsanulira ndalama zambiri ndikuchotsa zoletsa pazachuma. US auto industry ndikuwonjezera ntchito pamagalimoto aku Germany. Chuma cha Germany chimadalira magalimoto ndi mafakitale azitsulo omwe amayang'aniridwa ndi Trump.
Russia
MK: Mgwirizano waukulu wa Iran ku Middle East ndi Russia, yomwe yachita bwino kwambiri polimbikitsanso mphamvu zake mderali, makamaka Syria. Kodi zolinga za Russia ku Middle East ndi ziti?
AM: Ku Russia ya Putin tikuwona kukula ndi kufalikira kwa likulu la Russia, kuyesera kukonza gawo lake pamsika wapadziko lonse wa capitalist. Ikuyembekeza kubwerera ku mphamvu zake zam'mbuyo zachuma, nthawi ino mwachinsinsi. Kumbuyo kwa likululi kuli dziko lalikulu lomwe lili ndi zinthu zachilengedwe zambiri, chuma chanzeru, komanso nkhokwe yaukadaulo yomwe, mbali zina, inali yapamwamba kwambiri munthawi ya Soviet. Kupezeka kochuluka kwa asayansi, mabungwe amaphunziro ndi azikhalidwe ndizothandiza kwambiri komanso njira yopangira chuma.
Masiku ano luso la nyukiliya ndi mlengalenga likuyikidwa mu utumiki wa likulu lachinsinsi la Russia. Onjezani kuzinthu zazikuluzikulu zamphamvu izi - ma depositi akuluakulu amphamvu zachilengedwe padziko lapansi ali kumpoto kwa Russia. Ngakhale zili choncho, Russia imadzipeza yokha pa msika wapadziko lonse lapansi, ndikulipira ndalama zina. Ikuyesa kutenga gawo lake pamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi. Putin akuwonetsa nkhope yandale ya cholinga ichi. Amagwiritsa ntchito njira zankhondo ndi zandale kuti akwaniritse izi. Udindo wa boma pano ndikutsegula msewu wa likulu lachinsinsi la Russia kunja kwa malire ake.
Ndondomeko za US ndi EU ndizomveka - kuthana ndi kulowa uku. Ngakhale mapangano am'mbuyomu NATO idakulitsidwa mpaka kumalire a Russia, kulembera mayiko a Kum'mawa kwa Europe. Mizinga ya Nato idayikidwa ku Poland, motsutsana ndi zomwe zidachitika kale ndi US. A US adawonjezera zida zake zanyukiliya, adasonkhanitsa zombo zake zachiwiri (zomwe Obama adakonza zoti athetse) ndikuwonjezera kwambiri bajeti yake yankhondo. Pakadali pano Europe idakonza bwino kulanda boma ngati kusintha kwa velvet ku Ukraine. Mavuto a ndale ndi azachuma adagwirizana ndi zifukwa zosiyanasiyana, ndipo apa udindo wa Britain ndi wochititsa chidwi.
Putin, yemwe akuyimira kufunikira kwa likulu la Russia pagawo lake, amagwiritsa ntchito malingaliro aku Russia ozama kwambiri kuti alimbikitse anthu. Poyamba, kuukira kwa Abkhazia ku Georgia, kenako kulanda Crimea, pogwiritsa ntchito mikangano yokayikitsa ya mbiri yakale, kunalimbikitsa kunyada kwa dziko. Kupambana ku Syria ndi zida zake zankhondo kumatanthauza kuti Russia ndi mphamvu yaku Mediterranean kunyumba. Pakati pa magulu ankhondo akunja ku Middle East, Russia inali yopambana kwambiri. Linatha kulimbikitsanso mphamvu zake ku Syria, dziko lokhalo lomwe linali ndi malo ankhondo. Mofulumira kulowa mumpanda wamphamvu wopangidwa ndi kugonjetsedwa kwa US ndi ogwirizana nawo, Russia idapeza chigonjetso chosakayikitsa mumgwirizano ndi Lebanon Hezbollah ndi IR. Zonsezi zidadyetsa anthu okonda dziko lawo.
Komabe, Russia imakhalanso ndi mafuta ambiri. Chuma chake chimadalira kwambiri mitengo yamafuta yomwe idakali yokwera. Izi zimafuna kuti zikhalebe ndi ubale wabwino ndi Iran ndi Saudi Arabia. Kutsata njira yovuta yaukazembe, pamodzi ndi kulowererapo kwankhondo, idafunikira kusunga ubale ndi Israeli mosalowerera ndale. Ku Syria izi zikutanthawuza ndondomeko yomwe Israeli, pobwezera zitsimikizo kuti malire ake ndi Syria akhale otetezeka, amavomereza ndondomeko ya Russia kuti Assad akhale ndi mphamvu. Uku kunali kukambirana kopambana kwambiri kwa Putin.
Momwemonso Russia yagwira ntchito posachedwapa ndi OPEC makamaka Saudi Arabia kuti mitengo yamafuta ikhale yokwera, zomwe mayiko onsewa akufunikira kwambiri. Russia, yomwe m'mbuyomu idasunga malamulo odziyimira pawokha kuchokera ku OPEC tsopano ikugwira ntchito limodzi ndi cartel. Mwina titha kuwonjezera apa kuti Russia, ngakhale idawononga ndalama zochepa pachitetezo poyerekeza ndi US, idakwanitsa kukonza ukadaulo wake wankhondo. Russia yangomaliza imodzi mwa zazikulu kwambiri machitidwe ankhondo m'mbiri yake yokhudzana ndi mphamvu zapamtunda ndi zapanyanja. Zinali zovuta kwa Nato kukonzekera nkhondo ku Russia. Mafuta ndi mtengo wake ndizofunikira pachuma cha Russia komanso mphamvu zake zankhondo.
Russia ndi Iran
Kusunga ubale wapamtima ndi Iran, ndikuyesa kulamulira zina mwazofuna zake, ndizofunikiranso chidwi cha Russia ku Dera. Iran ikuwoneka kuchokera ku Moscow ngati wothandizana naye ndipo idzakhalabe choncho kwa zaka zikubwerazi, monga momwe zimakhalira ndi China (ndikoyenera kudziwa kuti asilikali a ku China ndi a Mongolia adagwira nawo ntchito zankhondo zomwe ndatchula). Kupanikizika komwe kwayikidwa ku Iran ndi kumadzulo kwatsegula mwayi wabwino kuti dziko la Russia lidziwonetse ngati bwenzi lodalirika. Mwachiwonekere zokonda zawo siziri zofanana. Onse Saudi Arabia ndi mayiko ena a Gulf monga Qatar ndi misika yayikulu ya zida zankhondo zaku Russia. Komanso malingaliro awo sali ofanana ku Kurdistan kapena Syria. Pankhani ya Syria, kuthamangitsidwa kwa Putin ku Israeli ndi US sikunalandiridwe ndi IR. Kumbali ina ku Afghanistan maboma onsewa akuyandikira a Taliban potengera boma lalikulu. Momwemonso mwanjira zina mwina amavomerezana ku Yemen.
MK: Nanga bwanji makona atatu a Russia, Turkey ndi Iran. Zitatuzi zikuwoneka kuti zikuyandikira kwambiri mumgwirizano wodziwika bwino.
AM: Turkey ndi osewera wina wamkulu mderali yemwe sitinalankhulepo. Kupanda mphamvu komweko komwe kunapangidwa ndi kugonjetsedwa kwa mfundo za US ndi kuchotsedwa kwa chikoka cha ku Ulaya ku Middle East, kunalimbikitsa dziko la Turkey kuti liwonjezere chigawo chake cha chikoka, mbali zina kudzera mu njira zankhondo. Choyamba kumpoto kwa Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, ndipo kenako kumpoto kwa Syria (pamene ndikuyika ndalama ku magulu ena otsutsa a Assad Islamist omwe akumenyana m'madera ena a dziko). Maloto a Ufumu wa Ottoman anali kutsitsimutsidwa.
Anthu aku Turkey ali ndi chidwi chosiyana ndi Russia ndi Iran. Koma amakhalanso ndi zokonda ndi onse awiri. Pankhani ya Iran, ikukana a Kurds kuti azidzilamulira okha. Ku Syria ali ndi zonena za madera osiyanasiyana. Koma zikafika ku US, onse atatu akuyenera kuwonetsa kusinthasintha potengera ena awiriwo.
Misonkhano yapatatu yomwe imachitika pafupipafupi yapangitsa kuti pakhale mgwirizano pamfundo zina, kuchepetsa kusiyana kwawo pang'onopang'ono. Putin, Rowhani ndi Erdogan akuyenera kukumana m'masiku ochepa ku Iran.[I] Zina zomwe sizikufotokozedwa mokwanira ndi funso la kusinthanitsa ndalama zomwe zimadutsa dola, komanso kukhazikitsidwa kwa msika wamba watsopano. Zikuoneka kuti adzagwirizana pa zomalizazi, powona kuti mayiko onse atatu ali pansi pa mavuto azachuma ndi US.
MK: Gawo ili la zokambirana silikhala lokwanira popanda kuwunika zaposachedwa mgwirizano yopangidwa ndi maiko oyandikana nawo pa Nyanja ya Caspian. Ngakhale kutsutsa kwa Iran kumayiko ena kuli hoo-hah, bungwe la IR likuwoneka kuti lalandira chilolezo kuchokera kwa oyandikana nawo..
AM: Ndikuganiza kuti cholinga chachikulu cha IR chinali kuyimitsa mfundo za US zozungulira Iran kuti isachite bwino. Poletsa kutenga nawo gawo pankhondo ku Caspian ndi mayiko onse kupatula mayiko asanu omwe ali m'malire ake, Iran idapeza chitsimikizo kuti malire akumpoto a dzikolo sangawopsezedwe ndi US ndi Nato. M'mbuyomu zilango za US zidagwiritsa ntchito maiko onse enieni a Caspian m'njira zokakamiza Iran. Chigwirizano chamakono chimalepheretsa kubwereza kwa chochitikacho. Uku ndi kupambana kwakukulu kwa IR, yomwe yakhala ikulimbikitsa kukhalapo kwake kwa asilikali a Caspian kwambiri pazaka zingapo zapitazi. Pakadali pano Russia yakulitsa kwambiri maziko ake apanyanja ku Caspian.
IR yakhala ikukakamizidwa kumwera ku Persian Gulf. Ngakhale mayiko osalowerera ndale monga Qatar ndi Oman sangathe kudaliridwa. Tsogolo la Iraq kapena Afghanistan silili lotsimikizika. Iraq yalengeza kale kuti ipewa mgwirizano uliwonse wokhudzana ndi dola ndi Iran. Awiriwo ndi zigawo zomwe zikusinthasintha. Iran yatha kusokoneza dziko la Turkey, ndipo ikuyembekeza kuchita chimodzimodzi ndi boma latsopano la Pakistani, kumene boma la US posachedwapa ladula ยฃ 300m pothandizira. IR ikhoza kupitiliza kugwiritsa ntchito Afghanistan ngati njira yogulira ndi kugulitsa madola koma dzikolo silo njira yotulukira kunja. Kumpoto kumalire, kotero, kumakhala kofunikira kwambiri pachitetezo cha IR ndikuchipeza chinali chigonjetso chachikulu poletsa kulowa kwa Nato kumayiko atatu a Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan ndi Turkmenistan ndikuchepetsa mikangano yomwe ingachitike ndi awiri oyamba.
Komanso Russia yapereka mwayi wopanda malire wopita kumtsinje wa Volga-Don kuti utumize kuchokera kumayiko onse anayi a Caspian kulola mwayi wopita kunyanja ya Azov ndi Black Sea ndikupita ku Mediterranean. Izinso ndizofunikira kwa IR ngati pangakhale kusokoneza kulikonse panjira ya Gulf.
Gawo lachiwiri la zokambiranazi lidzakambirana ndi zotsatira za chilango cha US ku dziko, pamwamba ndi pansi, ndi njira zomwe IR yakhala ikufuna kuthana nazo ndipo potsiriza zotsatira zomwe zingatheke pa nkhondoyi ndi US ndi ogwirizana nawo.
Ardeshir Mehrdad ndi katswiri komanso womenyera ufulu wandale.
Kuyankhulana uku kunachitika pa Ogasiti 30, 2018.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
Ndalama
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