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Kutsegulanso chuma cha US mu June - komanso mayiko ena koyambirira kwa Meyi - kwabweretsa 'kubwerera' kwachuma pang'ono. Koma kubwereranso sikuyenera kusokonezedwa ndi kuyambiranso kwachuma.
Kubwereranso kwapano ndi chifukwa chachilengedwe chachuma cha US kugwa 40% pakati pa Marichi ndi Juni 2020. M'gawo loyamba, Januware-Marichi 2020, chuma cha US chidachita 5%, pafupifupi zonsezo mu Marichi. Pomwe data yomaliza ya 2nd kotala ikuyembekezeka kulengezedwa, zolosera za US Federal Reserve Bank za US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) zikuwonetsa kugwa kwakukulu, kuyambira -30.5% (chigawo cha NY Fed) mpaka -41.7% (chigawo cha Atlanta Fed). Palibe chuma chomwe chingapitirire kugwa pamlingo wokwera kwambiri kotala pambuyo pa kotala.
Chuma chomwe chikukumana ndi kutsika kwakukulu komanso kofulumira, komwe kumadziwikanso ndi kugwa kwachuma komanso kusokonekera kwachuma-zimakumana ndi nthawi yotsika kwakanthawi, kapena kubwereranso pang'ono, mwachitsanzo, kubwereranso. Koma kumeneko si kuchira. 'Kubwezeretsa' kumatanthauza kukula kwachuma kosalekeza, kotala mpaka kotala kotsatira komwe kukupitilira mosalekeza mpaka malo azachuma omwe atayika 'abwezeretsedwa'. Koma kubwezanso kumakhala kwakanthawi, ndikutsatiridwa ndi kubwereranso kwachuma komwe kumabwera m'njira yakukulirakulira kapena kutsika kwachiwiri kapena kwachitatu.
Yang'anani pa Great Recession 1.0 yomwe inayamba mu December 2007. Kutsika kunayamba mwezi umenewo pambuyo pake kunatsika mofulumira kwambiri m'gawo loyamba la 2008, koma kenaka kunabwereranso pang'ono mu 2.nd kotala 2008. Kenako idakhala pansi pamadzi mu theka lachiwiri la 2008 mpaka theka loyamba la 2009, ndikupanga kotala lililonse kwa chaka chonse. Kubwereranso pang'ono, kozama kunatsatira mu 2010. Koma chuma chinabwereranso mu 2011, kugwirizananso ndi magawo awiri mwa 2011. Kubwereranso kwina kochepa kunatsatira kumayambiriro kwa 2012 ndipo kutsatiridwa ndi kuyimirira mu theka lachiwiri la 2012.
Ziwerengero za GDP pambuyo pa 2008 zinali zofooka kwambiri, ndipo kubwereranso kunadziwika kwambiri, Dipatimenti ya Zamalonda ya US isanasinthe momwe idafotokozera US GDP ndikuwonjezera ndalamazo ndi $ 500 biliyoni pachaka pambuyo pa 2013, kubwereranso ku 2008 ndi kale.
Kutsika Kwakukulu Konse komwe kumakhala ndi kutsika kwachuma koyambirira, nthawi zambiri kumatsatiridwa ndi kuchira kwakanthawi kochepa, kofupikitsidwa ndi kudumpha kawiri kotsatira kapena magawo osasunthika.
Izi zinali choncho ndi Kugwa Kwachuma Kwakukulu kwa 2008-09, komwe sikunathe kwenikweni mu June 2009, koma kudatsika pansi pazachuma kwa zaka zingapo. Njira yofananirayi itsatiranso 2020 Great Recession 2.0 yamasiku ano yomwe ikumaliza kugwa kwake koyamba kwa Gawo Loyamba.
Kugwa kwa Gawo Loyamba tsopano kukulowa mu Gawo Lachiwiri ndi zomwe zidzatsimikizire mwachidule komanso modzichepetsa 'kubwerera'. Koma kumeneko si kuchira.
Kubwereranso kwina kwachuma sikungapeweke pambuyo pa 'zafupi, zosazama' zomwe zimadziwika ndi Kugwa Kwachuma Kwakukulu. Njira imeneyo, mwachitsanzo, kubwereza pang'ono, kosazama komwe kumatsatiridwa ndi kubwereranso kwachidule komanso kwapakati kungapitirire kwa zaka zambiri.
Zomwe zikutanthawuza sipadzakhala mawonekedwe a V ndi kubwezeretsa kwenikweni mu chuma cha US mu theka lachiwiri la 2020. Zomwe zidzakhalapo ndi nthawi yowonjezera ya 'W-mawonekedwe', zaka ziwiri zotsatira 2020-2022 osachepera. Ndipo zikhoza kupitirira kwa nthawi yaitali.
The 1929-30 Great Recession: Anteroom to 1930s Depression
Zofananazi zimachitikanso kugwa kwachuma kusanachitike, monga zomwe zidachitika m'ma 1930. Kukhumudwa kwakukulu kunayamba poyamba ngati Kutsika Kwambiri Kwambiri. Opanga mfundo zaku US adalephera kukhala nazo ndipo zidalowa mu Kugwa Kwakukulu kwazaka khumi zomwe tikudziwa. Chomwe chimapangitsa kuti Great Recessions ikugwere ku Depressions yeniyeni ndikugwa kwachuma ndi mabanki.
Kuvutika Kwakukulu kwa zaka za m'ma 1930 sikunayambe ndi kuwonongeka kwa msika wa October 1929, komabe. Chuma chenicheni chinali chitatsika kale m'magawo opanga ndi zomangamanga mu 1929, kusanachitike ngozi yazachuma ya Okutobala 1929. Chuma chinagwirizana mu 1930 ndi -8.5% ndipo chinapitirizabe kugwirizanitsa chaka chilichonse pambuyo pake mpaka pakati pa 1933 pamene chuma cha US chinakumana ndi mavuto anayi a mabanki, chaka chilichonse kuyambira 1930 mpaka 1933. Chuma chimachulukirachulukira chaka chilichonse, mopanda phindu.
Kubwereranso ndi kukula kunatsatira 1934-36. Komabe, izi zidafowoka kwambiri kumapeto kwa 1937 pomwe a Republican Congress ndi Khothi Lalikulu onse pamodzi adayamba kugwetsa mapulogalamu a Roosevelt a 1935-37 New Deal olimbikitsa kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama. Zotsatira zake, mu 1938 chuma cha US chinayambiranso kuvutika maganizo. Kusinthidwa pang'ono kwa kutha kwa 1939 kunabweretsa kubwerera kukukula kwa GDP chaka chimenecho. Koma sizinali kwenikweni mpaka 1941-42 pamene chuma chinatulukadi mu Kuvutika Kwakukulu, pamene US GDP inakwera 17.7% mu 1941 ndiyeno 18.9% mu 1942. Zotsatira za ndalama zomwe boma lidawononga pamapulogalamu achitetezo ndi chitetezo zomwe zidaposa 1940% ya GDP zaka zimenezo. Izi zinali zolimbikitsa zachuma. Kumeneko kunali kuchira.
Mwa kuyankhula kwina, phunziro la Kusokonezeka Kwakukulu kwa zaka za m'ma 1930 ndi cholinga chothetsa kuvutika maganizo, kapena kuletsa Kuwonongeka Kwambiri kwachuma kukhala Kukhumudwa, boma liyenera kulowererapo ndikugwiritsa ntchito 40% GDP.
Asanayambike 2020 Great Recession 2.0, ndalama zomwe boma la US limagwiritsa ntchito komanso gawo la US GDP zinali pafupifupi 20%. Iyenera kuwirikiza kawiri mpaka 40% kuti ipangitse kuchira kowona kuchokera pamavuto omwe alipo. 5.5% palibe cholimbikitsa kwenikweni; 'kuchepetsa' pang'ono chabe kwa kugwa kwakukulu kumene kunachitika kumene. Ndiko kuti, pansi kwakanthawi pansi pa kugwa kwakuya kwa 30% -40% komwe kukanakhala kwakukulu.
The Great Recession 2008-09: The 5.5% Failed Stimulus
Mu Januwale 2009 olamulira a Obama omwe akubwera adakonza zobwezeretsa ndalama zokwana $787 biliyoni ndi 5.5% ya GDP. Akatswiri azachuma analimbikitsa zimenezi kawiri. Ngakhale atsogoleri a chipani cha Democrat ku US House adapereka ndalama zokwana $120 biliyoni pakuchepetsa msonkho wa ogula. Koma alangizi a zachuma a Obama, makamaka omwe kale anali akubanki komanso akatswiri odziwa zamabanki monga Larry Summers, adanena kuti US sakanatha kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zambiri. Obama adamvera a Summers ndikuchepetsa ndalamazo mpaka $787 biliyoni. Zinakhala zosakwanira. Chuma chenicheni chinapitirizabe kuchepa ndipo ntchito zinapitirizabe kukwera. Mapulogalamu owonjezera monga 'cash for clunkers' ndi 'ogula nyumba koyamba' anayenera kuwonjezeredwa.
Ngakhale ndikugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zowonjezera pambuyo pa Januwale, kulimbikitsira kwachuma kwa Obama kunakhala kosakwanira kuti abweze bwino, monga mbiri yakale ikuwonetsera. Kugwa kwachuma kwa US mu nthawi ya Obama 'kunachira' pamlingo wake wofooka kwambiri poyerekeza ndi zonse khumi zomwe zidabwerera ku US pambuyo pa kugwa kwachuma kuyambira 1947. Kuchira kwa Obama kunali 60% chabe yanthawi zonse pakubweza kwachuma.
Vuto la Obama 5.5% silinali chabe kukula kosakwanira kwa chilimbikitso. Kapangidwe kake kanasokonekeranso. Idafuna pafupifupi $300 biliyoni ya $787 biliyoni nthawi zambiri yochepetsera misonkho yamabizinesi, yomwe idasungidwa ndi mabizinesi osayika ndalama kuti iwonjezere zotuluka, kubwereketsa antchito ambiri, ndikupanga ndalama zambiri zogulira. Pafupifupi $ 300 yochulukirapo inali ngati ndalama zoperekedwa kumayiko kuti azigwiritsa ntchito. Nawonso anatolera zambiri ndipo analephera kulembanso ntchito anthu omwe sanagwire ntchito monga ankafunira. Ndalama zotsala za $787 biliyoni zidapangidwa makamaka ndi ndalama zoyendetsera ntchito zanthawi yayitali komanso ndalama zomwe sizinakhudze kwenikweni chuma. Chifukwa cha kusakwanira komanso kusakwanira kwa zokondoweza za Obama 2009, chuma cha US chidalowa m'mavuto azachuma pazaka zisanu ndi chimodzi zikubwerazi. Ntchito zaku US zomwe zidatayika mu 2008-09 sizinapezeke mpaka kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2015, ndipo malipiro apakati omwe amalipidwa pantchito zatsopanozo anali ochepa kwambiri poyerekeza ndi malipiro omwe adatayika.
Mfundo ndi yakuti: ngati 5.5% inali yosakwanira kuti ichiritse bwino mu 2009, lero mu 2020 ndalama zogwirira ntchito za 5.5% zopangidwa ndi CARES ACT mu Marichi 2020 sizikhala zopambana. Kugwa kwachuma ku US lero kukuzama kasanu kuposa mu 2008-09 ndipo kwachitika mu gawo limodzi mwa magawo asanu a zochitika za 2008-09. Ngati pulogalamu yachiwiri yowononga ndalama zaboma siitsatira mu theka lachiwiri la 2020, ndiye kuti 'kuyambiranso' kwachuma komwe kukuchitika chifukwa chakutsegulanso chuma cha US kudzalephera kubweza bwino. Ichi ndichifukwa chake CARES ACT - pulogalamu yayikulu komanso yokhayo yolimbikitsira mpaka pano - ndi 5.5% yokha ndipo idzalephera kubweza bwino chuma chikayambanso 'kuyambiranso' pang'ono.
The March 2020 CARES ACT: Failed Stimulus Déjà vu
Pofika pakati pa chaka cha 2020 ndalama zomwe boma la US likugwiritsa ntchito mpaka pano zikuphatikizidwa m'magawo osiyanasiyana a CARES ACT omwe adaperekedwa ndi Congress mu Marichi 2020, kuphatikiza njira zing'onozing'ono zingapo zomwe zidachitika kale komanso pambuyo pake ngati zowonjezera. Ndalama zake zenizeni kumapeto kwa June 2020 zimangokhala pafupifupi 5.5% zopereka ku US GDP.
The CARES ACT papepala idafuna $ 1.45 thililiyoni pa ngongole ndi thandizo kwa mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono, apakatikati ndi akulu. $500 biliyoni amaperekedwa ngati ngongole kumakampani akuluakulu. Chinanso $600 biliyoni mpaka kukula kwapakatikati kuphatikiza njira zina. Ndipo ngongole za $ 350 biliyoni, zosinthidwa kukhala zothandizira, kumabizinesi ang'onoang'ono otchedwa Payroll Protection Program, kapena PPP.
Ndalama zina zokwana madola 310 biliyoni zidawonjezedwa ku pulogalamu ya ngongole yamakampani ang'onoang'ono a PPP pomwe mabanki adasokera mwachangu mabiliyoni mabiliyoni kwamakasitomala awo akuluakulu osayenerera omwe adapeza ndalama zoyambira $350 biliyoni zamabizinesi ang'onoang'ono.
Mapulogalamu atatu abizinesi ophatikizidwa adapereka $ 1.76 thililiyoni mu ngongole ndi ndalama.
$ 500 biliyoni ina idaperekedwa kwa ogwira ntchito ndi mabanja aku US monga macheke owonjezera a $ 1200 pa munthu wamkulu aliyense kuphatikiza $ 600 owonjezera pazabwino zaboma zopanda ntchito zomwe zikupezeka mpaka pa Julayi 31, 2020.
Madola mabiliyoni angapo adapita kuzipatala ndi othandizira azaumoyo pobweza ndalama zadzidzidzi isanafike ndimeyi ya Marichi CARES ACT.
Izi zidapangitsa kuti ndalama zonse za March CARES ACT zikhale pafupifupi $2.3 thililiyoni. Komabe, zomwe sizinakambidwe zambiri pazofalitsa ndi ndalama zina za $ 650 biliyoni za CARES ACT zomwe zidapereka mabizinesi ndi misonkho. Kuchepetsa msonkho kumaphatikizapo kuyimitsidwa kwakanthawi kwamalipiro abizinesi ku msonkho wamalipiro; more generous net operating loss (NOL) misonkho yamakampani yomwe imalola mabizinesi kugwiritsa ntchito zotayika zapano kuti abweze misonkho pamisonkho yapachaka yomwe idaperekedwa; kutsika kwamitengo mwachangu (kudula msonkho wa de facto); komanso kuchotsera ndalama zambiri zabizinesi. Pansi pa 3% ya ndalama zochotsera misonkho za $650 biliyoni mu CARES ACT zimapita ku mabanja omwe amapeza ndalama zosakwana $100,000 pachaka.
Papepala, pafupifupi $2.3 thililiyoni CARES ACT inali pafupifupi 11% ya GDP. Koma theka lokha la 11% - kapena 5.5 - ndilomwe lakhudza chuma cha US. Izi zikusiyana ndi Germany ndi maiko ena aku Europe ndi Asia omwe adalimbikitsa kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama ndi 15% -20%.
Kulimbikitsana kwina kwa 5.5% Kutanthawuza Kuchira Kwinanso Kwalephereka
5.5% yocheperako kuti ayambitse kubwezeretsanso kuti ayambe kuchira. Zambiri mwa 5.5% zagwiritsidwa kale ntchito kuchepetsa 2nd kotala lakuya ndipo sichikupezekanso ngati cholimbikitsa mu 3 yomwe ikubwerard kotala.
Macheke onse a $ 1200 agwiritsidwa kale ntchito ndipo zambiri mwazowonjezera zopindulitsa za kusowa kwa $ 600 zalowa m'chuma. Zotsirizirazi zimatha pa July 31. Kuwonjezera apo, ndalama zambiri za $ 1.7 trilioni zomwe zimaperekedwa kwa mabizinesi akuluakulu ndi ang'onoang'ono sizinayambenso kulowa mu chuma cha US.
Pa $ 660 biliyoni mu pulogalamu ya PPP yamabizinesi ang'onoang'ono, pafupifupi $ 520 biliyoni yagwiritsidwa ntchito. Zochepera $100 biliyoni za $500 zomwe zaperekedwa kumakampani akuluakulu, monga ndege ndi makampani oteteza chitetezo, 'abwerekedwa' ndi mabizinesi akulu. Ndipo pofika pakati pa Juni 2020, palibe $ 600 biliyoni yamabizinesi apakati omwe 'adatengedwa' ndi mabizinesi amenewo. Pulogalamuyi idakhazikitsidwa kumapeto kwa Juni, patatha miyezi itatu idalengezedwa koyamba mu Marichi.
Pakali pano chiwongola dzanja chochepa chikuwoneka kumbali ya mabizinesi apakatikati ndi akulu mu ngongole zopitilira $ 1 thililiyoni zomwe zaperekedwa kwa iwo. Ndipo ponena za $ 650 biliyoni pakuchepetsa misonkho, zotsatira zake zitha kuchedwa mpaka Disembala 31, 2020, ngati zili choncho. Chifukwa cha kuchepa kwachuma ku US komanso kufunikira kwa ogula, mabizinesi ambiri amachotsa msonkho ndikuusunga.
Mwachidule, zoposa theka la ndalama zokwana $3 thililiyoni zomwe boma limagwiritsa ntchito, ngongole, ndalama zothandizira komanso kuchepetsa misonkho zoperekedwa ndi CARES ACT zikuyenera kudzipereka pachuma cha US. 11% yovomerezeka ndi theka chabe la izi.
Izi zimabweretsa funso lochititsa chidwi: Chifukwa chiyani mabizinesi apakatikati ndi akulu satenga ngongole zambiri zamabizinesi a $ 1.1 thililiyoni omwe aperekedwa kwa iwo?
$ 3+ Triliyoni Yopanda Bizinesi Yopanda Ntchito
Yankho ndiloti alibe chifukwa adatupa kale ndalama ndipo sazifuna kapena kuzifuna. Ndalamazo zabwera kuchokera kuzinthu zingapo m'miyezi yaposachedwa: Mabungwe akulu adawona zomwe zidalembedwa pakhoma zokhudzana ndi kachilomboka kuyambira Januware-February 2020. Adayamba mwachangu kukweza ndalama polemba ngongole zawo mowolowa manja ndi ngongole zawo. mabanki. Izi zidatulutsa ndalama zokwana mabiliyoni mazana angapo pofika Marichi. Kenako adapereka mbiri yama bond atsopano kuti apeze ndalama zambiri. Kuchokera pa Marichi mpaka kumapeto kwa Meyi ndalama zopitilira $1.3 thililiyoni m'mabizinesi atsopano azachuma zidakwezedwa ndi mabizinesi a Fortune 500 US - mwachitsanzo, kuposa chaka chonse cha 2019. Madola mabiliyoni angapo adasonkhanitsidwa m'mabizinesi osafunikira.
Njira inanso yandalama idakwezedwa ndi mabizinesi oyimitsa malipiro agawidwe komanso kubweza masheya kwa omwe ali ndi masheya. Mu 2019 adagawa $ 1.3 thililiyoni pakugula ndi kubweza ndalama
($ 3.4 thililiyoni yonse pazaka zitatu zoyambirira za Trump). Chifukwa chake kuyimitsidwa kogula ndi zogawika kwapulumutsa ndalama zina $500 biliyoni. Makampani nawonso adayamba kugulitsa ndikubweza ndalama zomwe amapeza m'makampani ena. Ogwira ntchito owonjezera kuti azigwira ntchito kunyumba adapulumutsanso ndalama zochulukirapo m'malo ocheperako, zopindulitsa ndi ndalama zofananira zamabizinesi ambiri. Makampani aukadaulo adapindula makamaka ndi izi.
Pokhala ndi ndalama zokwana mabiliyoni ambiri, mabungwe akulu ndi apakati analibe chidwi chobwereka ku CARES ACT, popeza omalizawo adabwera ndi zonena kuti 70% ya ngongolezo zigwiritsidwe ntchito kuti antchito azilipira. Anakonda kusiya antchito awo, ndikubwereka kumisika yangongole, kutulutsa ma bondi atsopano, ndikusunga ndalama.
Chitsanzo chabwino chinali Boeing Corporation. Congress idapereka ndalama zoposa $50 biliyoni ku Boeing ngati gawo la ngongole za $ 500 biliyoni zomwe zimaperekedwa kumakampani akuluakulu. M'malo mobwereka izi, Boeing adakweza $25 biliyoni popereka ma bond atsopano ndikulengeza kuti antchito ake 16,000 achotsedwa ntchito! Zochepera $ 100 biliyoni zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito ndi mabungwe akuluakulu pansi pa CARES ACT mabungwe akuluakulu '$ 500 biliyoni yopereka ngongole. Ndipo palibe chilichonse mwa ndalama zokwana madola 600 biliyoni mpaka pano zomwe zaperekedwa pansi pa pulogalamu ya ngongole yapakatikati yotchedwa 'Main St.' malo obwereketsa.
Zifukwa Zina 7 Zomwe 'Kubwereranso' Sizitanthauza Kuchira
Nazi zifukwa zina zisanu ndi ziwiri-kupatulapo kusokonekera kwachuma kwa US-chifukwa chake chuma cha US sichidzakhalanso ndi 'kuchira' m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi ikubwerayi, ndipo chifukwa chiyani US itsatira njira ya W-Shape yofooka Kukula kokhazikika kotsatiridwa ndi kuyambiranso kwachuma mpaka 2020-21 (ndipo mwinanso motalikirapo):
1.) 2nd Covid-19 Wave Economic Impact:
Ndizosapeweka kuti mayiko angapo abwezeretsanso kuyimitsidwa - makamaka ngati sichoncho - chifukwa matenda, kugona m'chipatala, komanso kufa kumakwera nthawi yachilimwe chifukwa chakutsegulanso chuma chisanachitike komanso kusokonekera kwa chikhalidwe cha anthu potsatira njira zodzitetezera. monga kuchezerana komanso kuvala chigoba. Kuzimitsa pang'ono kudzatero. M'magawo osiyanasiyana, chepetsani kuwononga kwa ogula, kuyika ndalama mubizinesi, ndikuchotsanso antchito pantchito. Kuyimitsidwa kwachiwiri muzantchito monga kupumira & kuchereza alendo, mipiringidzo, malo odyera, maulendo, zosangalatsa zapagulu, ngakhale maphunziro ndi chithandizo chaumoyo zidzatuluka - zonse zomwe zikusokoneza kufunikira kwa kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwapakhomo. Akuti pafupifupi theka la mayiko, 40% yachuma chomwe chatsegulidwanso, abwezeretsanso kutsekedwa kwabizinesi m'masabata ndi miyezi ikubwera chifukwa kuyambiranso kwa Covid 19 kukhudza chuma cha US mu theka lachiwiri la 2020. ndi kupitirira.
Lipoti lovomerezeka la US June pa Julayi 3, 2020 lidawonetsa kuti ntchito 4.8 miliyoni zidabwezeretsedwa. Koma osakwana 3 miliyoni mwa 4.8 miliyoni amenewo adakumbukiridwa m'malo opumira & kuchereza, mahotela, mipiringidzo, malo odyera, ndi mafakitale ogulitsa. Awa ndi mafakitale omwewo omwe adzakhudzidwe kwambiri ndi mayiko omwe akubwezeretsanso kuzimitsa. Ndi mafakitalenso momwe mabizinesi omwe atha kuyambiranso pang'ono mpaka pano nthawi zambiri amagwira ntchito m'mphepete mwaochepa kwambiri. Atha kulephera mu Gawo Lachiwiri lavuto lomwe layamba, ndipo ambiri atseka kwathunthu mu theka lachiwiri la 2020 chifukwa chogwira ntchito patheka.
Kuchuluka kwa kutsekedwa komwe kungatheke kumawululidwa ndi kafukufuku waposachedwa wa Yelp wa 175,000 wa bizinesi yake yamakasitomala. Mu nthawi ya 2nd kotala, kafukufuku wa Yelp adapeza kuti mu Meyi-June okha 30,000 mwa 175,000 ake adatsegulidwanso. Chofunika kwambiri, kafukufuku wake adawonetsa kuti 40,000 mwa 145,000 omwe anali asanatsegule anali atatseka kale. Kutsekedwa kwa mabizinesi okhazikika mu theka lachiwiri la 2020 - makamaka m'malo opumira & kuchereza alendo ndi mafakitale ogulitsa - sikuyenera kunyalanyazidwa. Kuyimitsidwa kosatha kudzachitika osati chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa ogula, koma kuyambiranso kwa Covid-19 komanso kuyambiranso kwachiwiri.
2.) Bizinesi Yokhazikika Kwambiri & Zoyembekeza Zoipa kwa Ogula
Chuma cha US chawonongeka kwambiri chifukwa cha kuchepa kwakukulu kwa miyezi inayi yapitayi. Onse mabizinesi ndi ogula ali ndi ziyembekezo zoipa za momwe chuma chikuyendera pakanthawi kochepa mpaka pakati. Mabizinesi sawona momwe angayambirenso kukulitsa ndalama, kapena kubwereranso kumilingo yakale ya kupanga ndi kutulutsa. Chifukwa chofuna kwa ogula momveka bwino, ziyembekezo zamabizinesi pazogulitsa zam'tsogolo ndi phindu zimachepa. Kuchepetsa mtengo wabizinesi pochepetsa misonkho yabizinesi kapena chiwongola dzanja sikukhala ndi zotsatira zochepa pakupanga ndalama zambiri, pomwe ziyembekezo za phindu - zomwe ndizomwe zimayendetsa ndalama - zimakhala zotsika kwambiri. Ichi ndi chifukwa chachikulu chomwe bizinesi yonse ikusungira ndalama zomwe zapeza. Zomwezo zimagwiranso ntchito kwa ogula ndi mabanja. Nawonso akusonkhanitsa ndalama zomwe ali nazo, akuwononga kwambiri pazofunikira zokha. Umboni ndi kukwera kwakukulu kwa ndalama zosungira nyumba ndi mitengo ya deposit ku banki. Ndalama zambiri zimasungidwa ndikusungidwa ngati njira yodzitetezera kuti chuma chiipire, m'malo mogwiritsidwa ntchito. Zotsatira zake ndikungowonjezera pang'ono kwa ndalama zomwe zimachitika, monganso ndalama zochepa. Mpaka pomwe zoyembekeza zoipa zitasinthidwa mwanjira ina, ndalama zamabizinesi ndi kugwiritsa ntchito m'nyumba sizikwera kufika pamlingo womwe umapangitsa kuti 'kuchira kukhale bwino'.
Zidzatengera chochitika chachikulu kuti tisinthenso mabizinesi ndi ziyembekezo zoipa za ogula, monga katemera wa kachilomboka kapena kulimbikitsa kwambiri zachuma kapena pulogalamu yolembera anthu ambiri omwe alibe ntchito ndi boma. Komabe, palibe chilichonse mwa zomwe zili pamwambazi zomwe zikubwera posachedwa. Chifukwa chake ziyembekezo zoipa zidzapitirizabe kuchepetsa kuchira kulikonse ndi kuchepetsa kusonkhezera kosakwanira kwa chuma chaboma kuti kupangitse "kubwezera" pang'ono.
3.) Kudula Mtengo Wabizinesi & Kuchotsa Ntchito Kwamuyaya
Kuchulukirachulukira kwachuma komanso kufulumira kwachuma m'miyezi inayi yapitayi, komanso chiyembekezo chabizinesi kuti chibwererenso mofooka, zatsimikizira mabizinesi ambiri kuti achepetse ndalama zambiri m'miyezi yaposachedwa. Chitsanzo ndi momwe mafakitale ndi mabizinesi ena adasamutsira antchito awo kukagwira ntchito kunyumba. Zawathandiza kuti asamawononge ndalama zambiri zogwirira ntchito - pazigawo, kukonza, ndi mapindu a antchito. M'mabizinesi otsika mtengo nthawi zonse amapeza njira zatsopano zochepetsera ndalama zomwe nthawi zambiri zimabweretsa kuchotsedwa ntchito komanso kutsika kwa malipiro. Chodabwitsa china ndikulembanso ntchito ndikubwezeretsanso antchito omwe adasiyidwa kwakanthawi sikuchitika mwaunyinji komanso nthawi imodzi. Mchitidwe wabizinesi wokhazikika ndikukumbukira gawo limodzi lokha la ogwira nawo ntchito ndikukumbutsa antchito nthawi yochepa. Osachepera, kuchepetsa mtengo komanso kukumbukira kwanthawi pang'ono kumapangitsa mabizinesi kusiya gawo lina lantchito yawo, omwe kusowa kwawo kumakhala kosatha.
Chiwopsezo chachiwiri chosowa ntchitochi chayamba kale kuwonekera, pomwe mabizinesi akuchepa pantchito pambuyo pa kusokonekera kwachuma komwe kwachitika kale. Makampani a ndege akulengeza kuti anthu masauzande ambiri achotsedwa ntchito. Mafakitale ena angapo akukumana ndi kulephera kwa ngongole pakubweza ngongole komanso kutha kwa mabanki zomwe zipangitsanso kuti anthu ambiri achotsedwe ntchito. Mwachitsanzo, gawo la mafuta ndi mphamvu zomwe zidapangitsa kuti pakhale ntchito zatsopano pazaka zisanu zapitazi. Kupitilira 200 kusakhulupirika kwamakampani kukuchitika. Kuchotsedwa kwa ntchito kukuyamba, kwanthawi zonse osati kungokhala kwakanthawi kapena kuchotsedwa ntchito.
Kuchepetsa mtengo ndi kuchotsedwa ntchito kumapangitsa kuti pakhale ndalama zochepa zapakhomo zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito komanso kuti zithandizire kuchira.
4.) Kuzama Kwambiri Padziko Lonse & Mavuto Azamalonda Padziko Lonse
Kugwa kwachuma cha US mu theka loyamba la 2020 kwatsagana ndi kusagwirizana kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi. Kutsika kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi kumatanthauza kuti kugulitsa kwa US kugulitsa kunja sikubwereranso pakanthawi kochepa. Kufuna kwamayiko aku US katundu & ntchito kumakhalabe kofooka. Izi zimachepetsa ndalama zapakhomo ku US, ntchito, komanso kuwononga ndalama kwa ogula. Ngakhale kuti chuma cha US sichidalira kwambiri katundu wogulitsa kunja kuti alimbikitse kukula kwachuma, zogulitsa kunja sizinthu zochepa zomwe zikuthandizira kukula ndi kubwezeretsa kwa US.
Kupitilira 90% yazachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi kudakumananso ndi kutsika kwachuma mu theka loyamba la 2020. Izi zikufanizira ndi Kugwa Kwachuma Kwakukulu koyamba kwa 2008-09 pomwe maiko ochepera 60% adagwa pansi limodzi ndi US. Kufuna kwakunja kwa US kutumizira kunja ndikocheperako nthawi ino. Pambuyo pa 2009 China ndi misika yomwe ikubwera idakula kwambiri pambuyo pa 2010 ndikuyika pansi pang'onopang'ono pazachuma cha US polimbikitsa kufunikira kwa malonda aku US; kuti China-Emerging Market kulimbikitsa chuma pachuma cha US kulibenso mu 2020.
5.) Kukulitsa Kusakhazikika Pandale ku US
Mmodzi sayenera kupeputsa kukula kwa kusakhazikika kwa ndale ku USA mu theka lachiwiri la 2020. Kusakhazikika kumeneku kudzachitika pa 'mbali' ziwiri. Limodzi liri pamlingo wa mabungwe andale. Zikuoneka kuti zisankho zomwe zikubwera pa Novembara 3, 2020 zidzatsutsidwa ndipo sizidzavomerezedwa ndi a Trump kapena omwe adasankhidwa ndi Democratic Party. Kusakhazikika kwachitukuko ku USA ndi Covid 19 zomwe zakhudza kuchuluka kwa ovota, kuphatikiza kuponderezedwa kwa anthu ovota kale m'maboma osiyanasiyana, kumapangitsa kuti pakhale zovuta zamavuto omwe atha zisankho ngati zisankho zisankhidwe pang'ono ndi ovota mu Novembala. Umboni ukukula, komanso, kuti Trump ali wokonzeka kulengeza kuvota ndi makalata ngati chinyengo ndikugwiritsa ntchito ngati chowiringula choponya chisankho ku Khoti Lalikulu-monga momwe zinachitikira ku US mu 2000. Lero Trump, mosiyana ndi George W. Bush mu 2000 , amasangalala ndi chiwerengero chochulukirachulukira ku Khoti Lalikulu Kwambiri ku US.
Kusakhazikika kwa mabungwe andale ku USA masiku ano kukutsagana ndi zomwe zikuwoneka ngati mikangano ya anthu wamba ikukulirakulira. Kukangana kwapamsewu pakati pa othandizira a Trump komanso kukwera kotchuka ndi ziwonetsero sikudutsa momwe zingathere, mwinanso kuthekera.
Kusakhazikika kwa ndale kuli ndi kuthekera kwakukulu kosokoneza zomwe ogula ndi mabizinesi amayembekezera, motero kumachepetsa ndalama zamabizinesi ndi kugwiritsa ntchito m'nyumba mopitilira muyeso kuphatikiza zomwe zadziwika kale.
6.) Khadi Yakutchire #1: Mavuto azachuma 2021
Nthawi yapakati, mu 2021 mwina kuposa mu 2020, ndiye vuto lazachuma lomwe likubwera lomwe lingapangitse kuti chuma chiwonjezeke kwambiri. Njira iyi yomwe mavuto azachuma angayambire ndi kuchuluka kwa kusakhazikika kwamakampani ndi maboma ndi maboma. Ngongole zochulukirachulukira zawonjezeka pazaka khumi zapitazi m'mabizinesi ku US. Zoposa $10 thililiyoni mu ngongole zamakampani zilipo pakadali pano. Osachepera $ 5 thililiyoni m'mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono komanso zopanda pake ngati kalasi yaBBB yogulitsa. Zinanso zangongole zamabizinesi 'zopanda pake'. Kutsika kwachuma kwanthawi yayitali komanso kufooka kwachuma kungayambitse kuthekera kwakukulu kwa kusakhazikika kwamakampani ndi kutha kwa ndalama. Ngati kukula ndi kuchuluka kwa zomwe munalephera kubweza ndi zazikulu kwambiri, kapena zikubwera mwachangu kwambiri, mabanki atha kukhala ndi vuto lalikulu la ngongole kachiwiri.
Makampani osakhazikika omwe ali ndi ngongole zotsika mtengo, komanso omwe alibe ndalama zokwanira zothandizira ngongoleyi, akuphatikizapo: kuwononga mafuta ndi malasha, malo ogulitsa mabokosi akulu, ndege zing'onozing'ono zachigawo, magalimoto obwereketsa ndi makampani ena okhudzana ndi maulendo, mahotela ndi malo osangalalira, malo ogulitsira, malonda. katundu ambiri, ndi mazana masauzande ang'onoang'ono odyera ndi madera odyera unyolo. Zosasintha zayamba kale kukwera mwachangu mwa ambiri. Ngongole zapakhomo ndi boma ndi maboma ang'onoang'ono zikukhala mumkhalidwe wofananira - wokwera kwambiri ndi ngongole mkati mwa ndalama zomwe zikugwa kuti zithandizire ngongoleyo popeza ulova ndi ndalama zamalipiro zikupitilirabe kutsika ndipo msonkho wamisonkho umakhalabe wokhumudwa nthawi yayitali chifukwa cha kuchepa kwachuma. .
Banki yayikulu yaku US, Federal Reserve, ili mkati mwa kuyesa kwakanthawi kopereka ndalama kwa mabungwe omwe siabanki kuti aletse zolakwikazo komanso kusefukira, nthawi yomweyo, mabanki aku US omwe ali ndi ndalama zochulukirapo zomwe angagwiritsire ntchito. konzani zolakwika ngati zibwera mochulukira komanso mwachangu kwambiri. Zikuwonekerabe ngati jekeseni wamkulu wa Fed pakali pano ($ 3 thililiyoni), ndipo adalonjezedwa (zopanda malire), adzakhala okwanira kuthana ndi zolakwikazo. Ngati sichoncho, mabanki aku US ayamba kuyimilira pomwe mabungwe azachuma ayamba kugwa komanso kusamutsa ngongole zamabizinesi zomwe zalephera kubweza kumabanki awo.
Mu 2008-09 ndi njira yosungira mabanki yomwe idagwa koyamba ndikupangitsa kuti chuma cha US chigwere mwachangu komanso mwachangu. Masiku ano ndizotheka kuti zoyambitsanso zitha kuchitika mu Kugwa Kwachuma Kwakukulu kwa 2020. Koma zilibe kanthu mu Kugwa Kwakukulu komwe kumayambitsa chomwe choyamba - mwachitsanzo, mabanki azachuma weniweni kapena mosemphanitsa. Mfundo yofunikira ndikuti magawo onse awiri - azachuma ndi enieni - amabwereranso pazachuma komanso kukulitsa kutsika kwachuma chonsecho.
7.) Khadi Yakutchire #2: Artificial Intelligence Mofulumira Kutulutsa
Khadi lina lakuthengo lomwe lingatuluke ndi mphamvu yochulukirapo kwa nthawi yayitali ndikulowa kwa Artificial Intelligence pantchito zamabizinesi. McKinsey Consultants akuti pofika chaka cha 2025 AI idzafulumizitsa kulowa muzochita zamabizinesi. Pofika theka lakumapeto kwa zaka khumi za 2020 zikadakhala ndi chiyambukiro chozama komanso chofalikira pa ntchito ndi malipiro, popeza AI idapangitsa kuti bizinesi ikhale yotsika mtengo kwambiri. Pafupifupi 30% ya ntchito zitha kukhudzidwa kwambiri. Chofunikira pa AI ndikuchotsa ntchito zosavuta kupanga zisankho, muzochita komanso kupanga.
Koma ndizotheka kwambiri kuti AI tsopano ilowa mwachangu kwambiri, mofulumizitsidwa ndi kuchepetsa mtengo wabizinesi komanso kukulitsa zokolola, chifukwa cha mavuto azachuma omwe alipo. Kuchulukirachulukira komanso kuchulukirachulukira kwachuma komwe kukuchulukirachulukira, m'pamenenso mabizinesi amatha kuchita njira zingapo zochepetsera ndalama ngati njira yothanirana ndi vutoli. AI imapatsa mabizinesi mwayi wabwino wochita izi. Koma AI imatanthauzanso kuchepetsedwa kwakukulu kwa ntchito zonse, makamaka ntchito zosavuta zolipira zochepa komanso ntchito yogulitsa. Ndipo chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa ntchito komanso kutayika kwa malipiro kumabweretsa kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa ogula, kugwiritsa ntchito, ndikupangitsa kuti chuma chiziyenda bwino.
Mlandu wa 40% Gawo la Boma la GDP
Monga tanenera kale, kuchira kuchokera ku kuchepa kwachuma ndi kupsinjika kumafuna ndalama zosachepera 40% za boma la US pa GDP yonse. Obama adakweza gawo la boma la US la GDP mpaka 25%, osati 40%. Chuma choterocho chinavuta pambuyo pa 2009.
Masiku ano 2nd Great Recession 2020, gawo loyamba lomwe langotha kumene mu June, likutsatira zovuta zomwe zidachitika mu 2008-09. Pakhala pali zolimbikitsa zachuma zokha pazachuma pakadali pano kuchokera ku CARES ACT. Zowonadi, Congress sinaganizirepo, ngakhale mu Nyumba ya Oyimilira, CARES ACT inali bilu yolimbikitsa. Imatchedwa bilu ya 'mitigation', yopangidwa kuti ikhazikike pang'onopang'ono pansi pa kugwa kwachuma komwe kukuchitika panthawiyo mu 2.nd kotala 2020. Bili yolimbikitsira yowona idayenera kutsatira. Ndiye HEROES ACT yomwe tsopano yatsekedwa ku Congress ndi Republican Senate ndi Trump. Chomwe omalizawa akufuna ndikuthetsa mapindu a ulova ndikusaperekanso ndalama zowonjezera. Akufuna kusinthananso phindu la ulova kuti apereke ndalama zolipirira mwachindunji kwa mabizinesi. Amafunanso kuchepetsa msonkho wabizinesi - kudulidwa kwamisonkho kosatha, kuchotsera misonkho yambiri, komanso kuchotsera ndalama zambiri zabizinesi. Ndipo iwo akuzengereza kupereka thandizo la ndalama kwa maboma a maboma ndi am'deralo omwe akuchulukirachulukira chifukwa cha kugwa kwa msonkho. Ngati chithandizo cha maboma ndi maboma sichichitika posachedwa, ndiye kuti anthu ambiri achotsedwa ntchito m'maboma ndi maboma posachedwa.
Komabe, sizikuwoneka mpaka pano kuti chilichonse chofanana ndi chilimbikitso chenicheni chidzaperekedwa ndi HEROES Act. Kuwonjezeka kwa phindu la ulova kutha kuthetsedwa. Kuchepetsa misonkho yambiri yamabizinesi, ngati iwonjezedwa ku $ 650 biliyoni yoperekedwa ndi CARES ACT, idzasungidwa mokulira. Momwemonso ndalama zamakampani zomwe zikanagwiritsidwa ntchito polipira malipiro, popeza boma limapereka malipiro a antchito awo m'malo mwake.
Kulimbikitsana kosakwanira kwachuma kuchokera ku lamulo la HEROES Act, ngati kungachitike, kuwonetsetsa kuti 'kuyambiranso' kwachuma cha US kukulephera kusinthika ndikubwezeretsa chuma cha US. Zina zisanu ndi ziwiri, zowonjezera zomwe tazitchula pamwambapa zidzalepheretsa kuchira kokhazikika-ndipo zitha kuyambitsa kutsika kwachuma kwina kotsatira. Chilimwe cha 2020 ndi nthawi yovuta kwambiri pachuma cha US.
US pakadali pano ikukumana ndi zomwe zitha kutchedwa 'triple crisis'. Vuto laumoyo lomwe likuwonetsa pang'ono kuti likutha. Vuto lalikulu lazachuma lomwe lidakali m'magawo ake oyambirira. Ndipo vuto la ndale likukhwima. Sizinayambe zachitikapo m’mbiri yake zochitika zazikulu zitatu zoterozo. Chimodzi mwazinthu zitatu zomwe zingathe kuyendetsedwa bwino ndi zachuma. Mavuto azaumoyo amadalira kwambiri chitukuko cha katemera. Palibe zambiri zomwe zingatheke kuti tipewe mavuto azandale omwe akukulirakulira. Idzathamanga njira yake, chirichonse chomwe chingakhale. Koma kulimbikitsa ndalama zaboma kofanana ndi 40% ya GDP yaku US kungakhazikitse chuma ndikukhazikitsa njira yopitira patsogolo. Komabe, ndizokayikitsa kwambiri kuti m'nthawi yakusakhazikika yandale, kugawanika kwakukulu pakati pa akuluakulu andale aku US, mikangano yomwe ikukulirakulirakulira, komanso kulephera kukhazikitsa njira yabwino yothetsera vuto la Covid-19 lomwe ma capitalist ndi ndale zawo. oimira adzakhala okhoza kuyambitsa zofunika 40% nthawi yankhondo zolimbikitsa zachuma.
Dr. Rasmus ndi mlembi wa buku lofalitsidwa posachedwapa, 'The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump', Clarity Press, January 2020. Amakhala ndi pulogalamu ya sabata iliyonse, Alternative Visions, mabulogu pa jackrasmus.com. Tsamba lake la twitter ndi @drjackrasmus ndi tsamba lake: http://kyklosproductions.com.
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