Pamene kuvota madzulo ano, Marichi 3, ikubwera kuchokera m'maboma khumi ndi anayi omwe akuchita ma primaries achipani cha Democrat kale "zotengera" zikuwonekera.
Yoyamba ndiyakuti mphindi yomaliza kusiya mpikisano woyambira ndi Pete Buttigieg ndi Amy Klobuchar - komanso kuvomereza kwawo kwa Joe Biden - kwakhala ndi njira zodziwikiratu. Mavoti awo adapita ku Biden. Izi mwina zidawonekera kwambiri m'boma la Klobuchar, Minnesota, komwe Sanders amayenera kupambana.
The Buttigieg-Klobuchar Maneuver
Onse a Buttigieg ndi Klobuchar adalowa mpikisanowu, wina angatsutse poyang'ana m'mbuyo, kuyesa momwe angakokere ovota omwe angakhale aku Sanders. Buttigieg achinyamata ndi mavoti gay. Klobuchar voti yachikazi. Sanathenso kuchotsa zambiri, ngati zilipo, za thandizo la Sanders. Chifukwa chake zitadziwika kuti anali ndi mwayi wochita izi, adasiya mwachangu ma primaries a Super Lachiwiri asanachitike ndipo adapereka chivomerezo chawo, thandizo labungwe (komanso ndalama za omwe amawathandiza azandalama?) ku Biden.
Ngati wina akukhulupirira kuti zisankho zawo zidali zodzipatula komanso zosagwirizana ndi zomwe sizikugwirizana ndi kulimbikitsidwa ndi utsogoleri wa Democratic Party, kuphatikiza a Obama, Pelosi, Shumer ndi omwe ali ndi ndalama zawo, ndiye kuti akudzinyenga okha. Nthawi, kutuluka kogwirizana, ndi kuvomereza kwa Biden sizinangochitika mwangozi. Atachita ntchito yawo yachipani, mosakayika tsopano alandira mphotho zabwino mu ntchito zawo zamtsogolo ndi mabungwe achipani komanso opereka kampeni.
Koma simunamve zambiri zamtunduwu ngati mumamvera MSNBC, CNN, kapena zofalitsa zina za kukhazikitsidwa, utsogoleri wachipanichi. Chifukwa chiyani aliyense akupitiliza kunena kuti chipani cha Democratic Party ndi 'chomasuka' kapena ngati chipani chodziyimira pawokha, ndizodabwitsa. Zolondola, ziyenera kumveka ngati 'phiko lachipani cha Corporate Party of America'. Gulu lina la Corporate Party of America ndi Republican. Zolondola, lero zikutchedwa chipani cha 'Trumpublican'. Ndondomeko za mapiko aliwonse a Corporate Party of America kwa zaka 40 zapitazi zakhala zofanana kwambiri komanso zolimbikitsa bizinesi.
Warren Anataya Massachusetts & Masiku Ake Awerengedwa
Chachiwiri chodziwikiratu pamwambo wamasiku ano wa Super Lachiwiri ndikuti Elizabeth Warren sanapambane ngakhale kwawo, Massachusetts, komwe adapita ku Biden. Omwe amatchedwa mavoti opita patsogolo a Warren akadapita pafupifupi kwa Sanders, nayenso akadasiya. Izi zikanapatsa Sanders Massachusetts mosavuta pa Biden. Warren mwachidziwikire wachotsa mavoti ku Sanders, osati ku Massachusetts kokha komanso kulikonse pa Super Lachiwiri.
Kufotokozera mwachidule: Buttigieg-Klobuchar adasiya ntchito yawo ndikusintha zovomereza zawo, chithandizo ndi mavoti ku Biden; Warren amakhalabe ndikupatutsa mavoti opita patsogolo kuchokera ku Sanders. Kodi alipo amene akuganiza kuti zonsezi zangochitika mwangozi?
Kuneneratu kwanga ndikuti Warren pamapeto pake adzasiya, koma mpikisano wa Sanders-Biden usanathe m'maboma akuluakulu aku Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin ndi ena angapo omwe angakhale nawo. Kuchepetsedwa kwa thandizo la Sanders lomwe likupita patsogolo likhala likwaniritsidwa.
Biden Akusesa Kumwera: Ndiye Bwanji!
Chotengera chachitatu ndikuti Biden adasesa mayiko akumwera pa Super Lachiwiri. Mosakaikira za izo. Monga ku South Carolina, voti yake idaperekedwanso ndi mavoti akuda opitilira 35. Chipani cha Democratic Party ndi chofooka kwambiri m'maboma akumwera kotero kuti ovota akuda ndi omwe amavota ambiri m'maboma ambiri akumwera. Ovota achikulire akuda adapita ku Biden, pomwe achichepere nthawi zambiri amapita ku Sanders. Koma voti yachinyamata yakuda inali yochepa chabe poyerekeza ndi mavoti akuluakulu akuda, nthawi zambiri pafupifupi 15% ya mavoti onse akuda. Ovota achikulire akuda ku South amakonda kuvota potengera malingaliro a mipingo yawo, mabungwe ammudzi, ndi atsogoleri andale akuda. Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, achinyamata akuda akudziimira okha. Koma panalibe ziwerengero zawo zambiri zoti zithetse, osasiyapo kupitilira, mavoti akale akuda kupita ku Biden. Voti yachinyamata yakuda ilipo. Koma bungwe la Sanders likadali ndi zambiri zoti lichite kuti likonzekere, kulembetsa, komanso kutulutsa achinyamata akuda kuti adzavote, makamaka kumwera.
Kusesa kwa Biden Kum'mwera sikunali kofunikira, komabe. Awa ndi mayiko omwe a Trump ndi ma Republican adamaliza mwamphamvu. Zaka makumi angapo zakuponderezana, kupondereza ovota, komanso kuwongolera nyumba zamalamulo ndi maulamuliro aboma m'mabomawa zikutanthauza kuti palibe woimira Democrat, Sanders kapena Biden, yemwe ati adzalowetse "mayiko ofiira" mumsasa wa Democrat pachisankho cha Novembala 2020.
Chifukwa chake kupambana kwa a Biden m'ma primaries m'maiko awa sikutanthauza chilichonse chofunikira pazisankho zazikulu mu Novembala. Koma atolankhani achipanichi akuwonetsa kuti achita bwino kwambiri zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti Joe asesa Kumwera pachisankho cha Novembala motsutsana ndi Trump. Loto mopitirira.
Atolankhani omasuka, oyambitsa anthu usiku wonse Lachiwiri akhala akukamba nkhani yomwe a Biden adapambana ku Virginia, ku Tennessee, Arkansas ndipo sanawonekere komweko kapena kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama pazotsatsa pa TV. Kodi izi sizikuwonetsa momwe Joe alili wamphamvu, adalankhula ngati akuwerenga pawayilesi yomweyi? Ayi, zikuwonetsa kuti ma Democrat ndi ofooka kwambiri m'maiko amenewo kotero kuti malingaliro a chipanichi ndiwo amawonetsa zotsatira zake.
Kusankha Kwatsopano kwa Bloomberg: Fortune vs. Ego
Nanga bwanji Bloomberg? Atawononga ndalama zoposa $500 miliyoni za ndalama zake (zoposa $70 miliyoni ku California mokha), adatha kupeza chithandizo cha ovota pakati pa achinyamata. Pafupifupi 15% kapena kuposa. Akuti woyang'anira kampeni wake wamulimbikitsa kuti asiye ntchito. Kaya atero zidzadalira ngati amaona kuti kudzikuza kwake nโkofunika kwambiri kapena kuti chuma chake chikucheperachepera. Iye tsopano akuwoneka ngati wotchova njuga yemwe amakonda kuthamangitsa ndalama zake patebulo lopanda pake kapena pabwalo lamasewera. NGATI munthu angaganize, komabe, kungakomere kudzikuza kwake. Akhozabe kusonkhanitsa mavoti okwanira a nthumwi kuti akhale broker pa msonkhano wa chipanichi.
Chipani cha Geographical-Generational Class Divide
Chinanso chomwe chatenga ndi Lachiwiri Lachiwiri, mpikisano wamayiko 14 ukuwonetsa kuti chipani cha Democrat chigawika m'malo, komanso motsatira mizere yamagulu.
Sanders amapambana kwambiri kumadzulo ndi kumpoto kwa New England. Biden ku South. Koma dera lofunika kwambiri la maloโdera limene lidzatsimikizire zotsatira za koleji ya zisankho ndipo motero zisankhoโlingaliridwabe. Ndilo gawo la "swing states" lachigawo kuchokera ku Pennsylvania kupita ku Michigan kupita ku Wisconsin (ndipo mwina 'otsatsa' ochepa ngati Arizona). Monga mu 2016, ndipamene chisankho cha pulezidenti chidzadziwika. Ndikulingalira kwanga ndikuti Warren azikhalabe kuti apitilize kugawa voti yomwe ikupita patsogolo, kuzovuta za Sanders, ndikusiya pambuyo. Komano, Bloomberg atha kutsimikiza kusiya ma primaries asanachitike. Akatero mavoti ake apita ku Biden. Izi zonse zidzatsimikizira kuti Biden apambana ambiri mwa nthumwi kumeneko, ngakhale izi sizinakonzedweretu.
Sanders 'adapambana kumadzulo, komwe "ovota wamkulu wakuda" ndi Warren 'kugawa voti yopita patsogolo' sizinali zofunikira. Mpikisano wosangalatsa unali voti yaku Texas. Sanders adasankhidwa kuti apambane ndi malire pang'ono. Komabe, kukhazikitsidwa kwa chipanichi kudaponya chilichonse ku Texas, kuphatikiza sinki yakukhitchini yandale, monga akunena. Iwo adakhalanso ndi lingaliro lomwe kale linali la ufulu wakumanzere, Beto O'Rourke, kuti avomereze ndikupumira Biden. Monga Buttigieg ndi Klobuchar, nayenso mosakayikira adzadalitsidwa bwino ndi zida zachipani paulendo wake wotsatira wandale. Phunziro: Chenjerani ndi achinyamata omwe akungokulirakulira pazandale.
Movement vs. Party Apparatchiki
Sanders adalimbikitsa voti yachinyamata, voti ya Latino (achinyamata ndi akulu), achichepere akuda ndi ena ang'onoang'ono, azimayi ndi mabungwe am'deralo ku mbendera yake. Ndi kayendetsedwe kamene kakukula. Sichinafike pachimake. Funso ndilakuti zifika pachimake posachedwa, kapena mwina pambuyo pa zisankho za 2020? Kumadzulo, unyinji wakale wa ovota adapitabe ku Biden. Koma mosiyana ndi kumwera, chiwerengero cha mavoti achichepere kumadzulo chinadzaza ovota achikulire. Kusuntha komweko kwafika! Kusuntha kwa Sanders kuposa kusokoneza zida zachipani za Biden. Ndipo kumadzulo, mosiyana ndi Kumwera, kuyenera kupambana ndi Democratic Party kuti athetse mavoti a Trump ndi ma Republican m'malo awo a 'red state'. Ndi njira yopanda pake kuyesa kuchotsanso 'dziko lofiira' Kumwera kuchokera pansi pa Trump. Mochedwa kwambiri. Mantha komanso kufatsa kwachipani cha Democratic Party kukumana ndi kuponderezedwa kwa ovota komanso kuzunzana kwachititsa kuti izi zikhale zosatheka. Bwino kulimbitsa Kumadzulo, New England, mwina Atlantic States ndikupambana mayiko osambira. Koma omalizawo atenganso kayendedwe. Ndipo popanda Sanders, ma Democrat alibe.
Chifukwa chake Sanders amapambana kumadzulo, New England, ndi voti ya achinyamata-Latino. Biden amapambana voti yakuda yakumwera. Koma mpikisano wofunikira kwambiri wachigawo ukubwerabe: swing imati kuvota. Izi ndi zotsimikiza. Ndipo izi zitenga zambiri kuposa njira zakale zotopa za atsogoleri a Democrat. Ndipo ngakhale otopa achikulire, omwewo-o, omwewo-o osankhidwa.
Nthawi Yotulutsa 'Kraken'?
Sanders atha kukhala ndi mwayi womenyera nkhondo ngati kusankhidwa kwa chipanichi kukadatsimikiziridwa ndikupambana ambiri mwa nthumwi 1,991 popambana ma caucuses ndi ma primaries. Koma sichoncho. Atsogoleri a chipani cha Democratic Party ndi azandalama awonetsetsa kuti 'ace mu dzenje', ngati angafunikire, ndiye ulamuliro wawo pa 500+ omwe amatchedwa nthumwi zapadera pamsonkhano wawo wosankha wa Julayi. Ambiri mwa awa ndi mamembala a Democrat a Congress-oyimira ndi aphungu. Ndipo adzavota monga momwe chipani chikufunira, kupatulapo ochepa. Chifukwa chake ngakhale a Sanders atapambana pama primaries omwe akubwera, ngakhale atakhala kutali ndi omwe ali ndi nthumwi zambiri kuchokera pama primaries, adzalandidwabe chisankho cha chipanicho mu Julayi pa Ndikuneneratu, pamene atsogoleri a chipani 'adzamasula Kraken' (chilombo chapanyanja chakale cha Norse) cha nthumwi zapadera 500 kuti zivotere anyamata okondedwa a atsogoleri a chipani. Ndipo mukuganiza kuti adzakhala ndani?
Chifukwa chiyani Biden Sangamenye Lipenga
Chomwe chomaliza cha ma primaries a Super Lachiwiri ndi awa: Kupambana kwa Biden ku South sikuthandiza, monga zidanenedwa. Sangapereke mavoti a zisankho za mayiko amenewo pachisankho chachikulu. Obama ndi ma Democrats adataya kale mpikisanowu mu 2010, pomwe Obama adalephera kubwezeretsa chuma ku Main St. -2010. Kuchulukirachulukira ndikuponderezedwa kwa ovota kudatsata kulandidwa kwa Republican kumayiko ofiira. Izi zikuwonetsetsa kuti mayikowa azikhala 'ofiira'. Mfundo yachiwiri: ngati Biden atasankhidwa, othandizira gulu la Sanders sadzamuvotera. Iwo adzakhala kunyumba. A Democrat atha kutaya maiko angapo akumadzulo pakutero, komanso kumwera. Zilibe kanthu ngati apambana limodzi kapena angapo akumpoto a 'ma swing states'. Atsogoleri azipani akuganiza zomwe ayenera kuchita ndikupangitsa phwandolo limodzi, kutsimikizira aliyense kuti palibenso chochita koma kuvotera Biden (kapena Bloomberg). Ndipo 'ingotembenuzani' mavoti 2012 m'maboma omwe adatsimikiza kupambana kwa koleji mu 14 kwa Trump. Mmodzi ayeneranso kuwonjezera mwayi woti a Trump adye chakudya chamasana cha Biden, monga amanenera, pamakangano a TV chisankho cha Novembala chisanachitike. Pomaliza, munthu sangathe kuchotsera zidule zauve za Trump ndi Republican mphindi yomaliza. Pamwamba pa mndandandawo padzakhala 'Zodabwitsa za Okutobala' sabata isanakwane chisankho cha Novembala, pomwe china chake chodabwitsa chokhudzana ndi kulumikizana kwa Biden ku Ukraine - kaya ndi zoona kapena ayi - chidzawululidwa ndi achinyengo a 'Trumpublican'. Kukhazikitsidwa kwa Chipani cha Democrat sikungathe kuyankha munthawi yake kuti asakane zotsatira za vumbulutso.
Kugawanika Kwachipani Kosasinthika
Mwachidule, chipani cha Democrat chogawanika moyipa, ngati Sanders akanaberedwa pa chisankho (kachiwiri), chidzasokoneza gawo lomaliza la chisankho mu Novembala; Biden adzabwera moyipa pamikangano yapa TV; ndipo mchitidwe wa 'Trumpublican' wopambana mwanjira iliyonse yofunikira, ngakhale zitanthauza kuwononga zomwe zatsala mu Demokalase yaku America, pamodzi zidzabweretsa njira ina yolephereka ndikuyesa kwa utsogoleri wa Democratic Party kuti agonjetse Donald Trump.
Biden 'sasankhidwa' kuposa Sanders (yemwe amatsogolera Trump pamavoti ambiri odziyimira pawokha). Kusankhidwa kwa a Biden ndi nthano yayikulu yosimbidwa ndi atolankhani aku Democrat. Biden mwina ndiye wosasankhidwa kwambiri. Ngakhale Bloomberg angakhale ndi mwayi wabwinoko. (Koma ndiye, pali kusiyana kwenikweni pang'ono pakati pa Bloomberg ndi Lipenga, kupatula pakamwa wonyansa, makhalidwe oipa, ma tweets oipa, ndi predilection kuthamanga roughshod pa Constitution US. Apo ayi onse ndi mabiliyoni ambiri amene pamapeto pake amathandiza mabiliyoniire).
Chifukwa chake zikuwoneka kuti chipani cha Democratic Party chili pamphambano zenizeni: Utsogoleri wawo wochezeka ndi makampani akuchita zonse zomwe angathe kuti ayendetse mbali zingapo kukana kusankhidwa kwa chipanichi kwa Sanders. Osati kungoyendetsa kampeni yayikulu, kuwongolera kwa nthumwi zamsonkhano, kukankhira mauthenga abodza ngati Sanders sangasankhidwe, kapena ataya mipando 'yovotera' ku Congress, ndikusintha ngati Sanders 'FDR ngati kusintha (sikusintha anthu), kulemba zilembo. Sanders ndi 'socialist' wopitilira muyeso (mwachitsanzo mutu waku Republican), ndikukweza ma baluni oyeserera ndi ena mwa osonkhanitsa ndalama achipanichi omwe alengeza kuti angavotere Trump ngati Sanders akadasankhidwa. (Zomwe akutanthauza ndikuti amavota kuti asunge misonkho yayikulu yomwe Trump adawapatsa m'malo molola a Sanders kuti achotse misonkho yawo!).
Atsogoleri ndi akatswiri achipanichi akufuna kukana kusankhidwa kwa Sanders kotero kuti akhoza kukhala pachiwopsezo chogawa chipani ndikuthamangitsa achinyamata amtundu uliwonse. Ngati ndi choncho, zitha kutanthauza kuti chiyambi cha kutha kwa chipani cha Democratic kubwera mu Novembala, njira yomwe ingapitirire ngati Biden atataya zisankho.
Biden akanakhala wofanana ndi Obama malinga ndi mfundo, ngakhale atatopa komanso osalimbikitsa omaliza. Koma zotsatira zake zidzakhala zofanana ndi zomwe Obama anali nazo kwa zaka chikwi, GenXers, ndipo tsopano GenZers. Palibe njira zothetsera mavuto awo pantchito, malipiro otsika, ngongole za ophunzira, chithandizo chamankhwala chosatheka komanso mtengo wamaphunziro, kusowa kwa nyumba zabwino, kusankhana mitundu, kukwiya chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa zonyansa za kudzikundikira chuma chambiri ndi anthu ochepa pomwe akuvutikira kuti apeze zofunika pa moyo, komanso kuopa kuti iwo ndi ana awo akukumana ndi vuto la nyengo. Pakuti kugawikana komwe kukuwonekera pakati pa chipani cha Democratic Party ndi chimodzimodzi kugawikana pazachumaโndiye nkhani yosiyana.
Ndizomvetsa chisoni kuti atsogoleri a Democrat ndiwodabwitsa kwambiri amangowona zisankho zazikulu zomwe zikubwera zili ndi khungu. Kanani Sanders ndipo adagawaniza phwando, osati mu Novembala koma pambuyo pake; kulola a Sanders kukhala osankhidwa ndipo amasiya kuwongolera chipanicho mothandizidwa ndi ndalama ndi mabungwe, mapulogalamu ake, ndi mfundo zake zomwe akhala nazo kuyambira 1992 ndi Bill Clinton. Chifukwa chake akudzinenera zabodza kuti, ngakhale atakana kusankhidwa kwa Sanders, omutsatira ndi gulu lake 'adzakhala opanda kwina koti apite' koma kugwera kumbuyo kwa Biden. Koma ali ndi kwinakwake oti apite: amakhala kunyumba. Kenako mwina atuluka kukakonza phwando lodziyimira pawokha popanda Democratic Party yamasiku ano.
Kusankhidwa kwa a Joe Biden sikungotanthauza kulephera kugonjetsa Trump, koma kungatanthauze kugawanika kosasinthika m'chipanicho.
Dr. Rasmus ndi mlembi wa buku lofalitsidwa posachedwapa, 'The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump', Clarity Press, January, 2020. Iye amalemba pa jackrasmus.com. Webusaiti yake ndi http://kyklosproductions.com ndi twitter handle, @drjackrasmus, Amakhala ndi wailesi ya sabata iliyonse, Alternative Visions, pa Progressive Radio Network kunja kwa New York.
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Kusanthula kwabwino kwambiri zikomo. Monga waku Canada ndikuyesera kumvetsetsa zonsezi, ndidali ndi chiyembekezo choti Bernie apambane, ndipo ndidakhumudwa m'mawa uno. Koma nkhaniyi yandipangitsa kumva bwino. heh.